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Research Article

Natural disaster preparedness in a multi-hazard environment: Characterizing the sociodemographic profile of those better (worse) prepared

Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliations Engineering Sciences Department, Universidad Andres Bello, Santiago, Chile, National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Santiago, Chile

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Supervision, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliations National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Santiago, Chile, Industrial and Systems Engineering Department, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Supervision, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliations National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management CONICYT/FONDAP/15110017, Santiago, Chile, Department of Psychology, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

Roles Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Department of Psychology, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile

• Nicolás C. Bronfman, 
• Pamela C. Cisternas, 
• Paula B. Repetto, 
• Javiera V. Castañeda

• Published: April 24, 2019
• https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214249
• Reader Comments

The growing multi-hazard environment to which millions of people in the world are exposed highlights the importance of making sure that populations are increasingly better prepared. The objective of this study was to report the levels of preparedness of a community exposed to two natural hazards and identify the primary sociodemographic characteristics of groups with different preparedness levels. A survey was conducted on 476 participants from two localities of the Atacama Region in the north of Chile during the spring of 2015. Their level of preparedness at home and work was assessed to face two types of natural hazards: earthquakes and floods.The findings show that participants are significantly better prepared to face earthquakes than floods, which sends a serious warning to local authorities, given that floods have caused the greatest human and material losses in the region’s recent history of natural disasters. Men claimed to be more prepared than women to face floods, something that the authors attribute to the particular characteristics of the main employment sectors for men and women in the region. The potential contribution of large companies on preparedness levels of communities in the areas in which they operate is discussed. The sociodemographic profile of individuals with the highest levels of preparedness in an environment with multiple natural hazards are people between 30 and 59 years of age, living with their partner and school-age children. The implications of the results pertaining to institutions responsible for developing disaster risk reduction plans, policies and programs in a multi-hazard environment are discussed.

Citation: Bronfman NC, Cisternas PC, Repetto PB, Castañeda JV (2019) Natural disaster preparedness in a multi-hazard environment: Characterizing the sociodemographic profile of those better (worse) prepared. PLoS ONE 14(4): e0214249. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214249

Editor: Florian Fischer, Bielefeld University, GERMANY

Received: November 15, 2018; Accepted: March 8, 2019; Published: April 24, 2019

Copyright: © 2019 Bronfman et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files.

Funding: This research was partially funded by Chile’s National Science and Technology Commission (Conicyt) through the National Fund for Scientific and Technological Research (Fondecyt, Grant 1130864; NCB - Grant 1180996; NCB) and by the National Research Center for Integrated Natural Disaster Management CONICYT/ FONDAP/15110017; NCB, PBR, PCC. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction

A World Bank report that assessed the main natural disaster hotspots in the world [ 1 ] found that approximately 3.8 million km 2 and 790 million individuals are exposed to at least two natural hazards, while 0.5 million km 2 and 105 million individuals are exposed to three or more natural hazards. An increase in the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of natural disasters has been recently demonstrated, particularly for those related to climate change [ 2 ]. Records show that between 1994 and 2013, floods were the most frequent event (43% of all events registered), affecting approximately 2.5 billion people [ 3 ] and caused the greatest material costs and losses. In the same period, earthquakes and tsunamis caused the highest number of fatalities, estimated at around 750,000, with tsunamis being twenty times more lethal than earthquakes [ 3 ]. These statistics demonstrate the critical multi-hazard environment to which the global population is exposed.

The combination of human and economic losses, together with reconstruction costs, makes natural disasters both a humanitarian and an economic problem [ 1 ]. Between 1994 and 2013, natural disasters produced economic losses of more than USD 2.6 trillion [ 3 ]. More recently, in 2017, USD 314 billion were spent globally on damage related to natural disasters [ 4 ]. There is currently an unresolved debate regarding whether natural disasters hinder a country’s economic growth, given that the empirical evidence is somewhat heterogeneous [ 5 ]. However, high expenditure associated with natural disasters may reduce investment in other priority areas for a country, such as education, health, transport and security [ 5 ].

There are no countries or communities that are currently immune to the impact of natural disasters. It is, however, possible to reduce the effects of these events through management strategies focused on risk reduction [ 6 ]. Citizen preparedness strategies play a key role in reducing the effects of hazards that cannot be mitigated [ 6 – 8 ], as such strategies seek to improve the ability of individuals and communities to respond in the event of a natural disaster [ 7 ].

Chile, located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, is one of the countries that is most exposed to earthquakes/tsunamis and volcanic eruptions on the planet. Among the OECD member countries, Chile is the most exposed to natural hazards, where 54% of its population and 12.9% of its total surface area are exposed to three or more hazards [ 1 ]. Between 2008 and 2018, Chile was affected by ten natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, floods and volcanic eruptions), which translated into more than four million affected individuals and close to 800 fatalities [ 9 ]. The 2010 earthquake and tsunami alone caused the death of 562 people, and gave rise to more than USD 30 billion in material losses [ 10 ]. As such, the multi-hazard environment to which the population is exposed, and the high expenditure associated with natural disasters in Chile, emphasize the importance of adopting a multi-hazard approach to progress in the design of preparedness strategies. In order to move forward in this direction, the main objective of this study is to understand the current levels of preparedness of a community exposed to multiple natural hazards and identify the primary sociodemographic characteristics of groups that show different levels of preparedness. The results of this study are expected to contribute to the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and programs in multi-hazard environments.

Preparedness in a multi-hazard environment

The complexity of territories and social structures expose communities to various hazards, both natural and man-made. Against this backdrop, the leading institutions responsible for disaster risk reduction worldwide indicate the importance of nations being able to assess, recognize and integrate the various hazards in their territories in their planning, in order to prepare the population to effectively mitigate the damages associated with these multiple hazards [ 11 ].

Although addressing a multi-hazard environment requires significant economic and political efforts, several studies have indicated that the multi-hazard approach has major benefits for the design of effective disaster risk reduction policies [ 12 , 13 ]. A multi-hazard assessment permits not only more reliable territorial planning for a country’s inhabitants but also lets stakeholders show that focusing mitigation measures on a single hazard may increase vulnerability to others [ 12 ].

The main recommendations for multi-hazard environments include strengthening risk assessment within territories, informing the population of these risks to raise awareness, and establishing multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral efforts to develop integrated public policies [ 14 ].

Natural hazard preparedness

In recent decades, numerous studies have been focused on assessing individuals’ levels of preparedness for natural hazards, and the factors that promote the adoption of preparedness measures [ 15 – 17 ]. In the literature, there are different theoretical frameworks to conceptualize the adoption of preparedness measures to face natural hazards, where the Protective Action Decision Model [ 16 , 18 ] and the Social-Cognitive Model [ 19 , 20 ] are the most cited models. The first model recognizes that preparation is a behavior dependent on risk perception, previous experience and some demographic characteristics, among other variables. The social cognitive model focuses on the role of motivational factors on the decision to adopt preparedness actions, including awareness of the threat, anxiety, self-efficacy, and sense of community among others. Both models can help describe and understand the preparedness, however, for the purposes of the present study we incorporate elements of the Protective Action Decision Model, mainly in aspects related to the relation between sociodemographic factors and preparedness levels. This model also recognizes the role of experience that is relevant for this particular study considering that the communities that were studied had experienced both events.

One of the most common ways to study natural disaster preparedness levels is by characterizing these measures within the places where individuals spend most of their time, such as their homes (with their families) and their workplaces [ 21 – 23 ]. These areas are representative not only of the types of preparedness measures adopted by the population [ 22 ], but also the areas that people recognize as sources of common and relevant information for taking preparedness measures [ 24 ]. Preparedness actions involve developing plans, stockpiling of supplies and performing exercises and drills, all aimed to reduce the impact of the disaster [ 25 ]. These actions have been translated into recommendations, checklists and actions that organizations provide to households, communities and workplace in order to be prepared in case of a disaster. Response organizations recommend to frequently assess and evaluate whether these actions have been implemented.

Researchers have proposed several models to explain the decision to take action and implement preparedness actions, with a particular emphasis on the role that social cognitive processes [ 26 ]. Traditionally these models have emphasized the role of risk perception and have also shown that previous experience may be relevant, but with mixed results in relation with preparedness [ 18 ]. For the purposes of this study we focused on a community that had experienced different hazards in the past years, so we could examine also whether they appeared to be prepared to respond to different hazards.

Household preparedness.

Researchers have mostly focused on understanding family preparedness when characterizing the preparedness levels of the population [ 23 , 27 ]. Family preparedness has been researched and measured through different types of activities, such as survival measures, mitigation measures and planning measures [ 21 , 23 , 28 – 30 ]. Family planning measures in the face of natural hazards are those which are adopted least frequently, but whose importance is highly recognized among individuals [ 23 , 30 ]. Family preparedness is recognized as the base from which other preparation actions take place [ 27 ].

Workplace preparedness.

Despite the fact that research on natural disaster preparedness has primarily focused on family preparedness, the study of workplace preparedness is emerging as a relevant focus for research, given the role that organizations play in local economies, the lives of the people they employ and even recovery following natural disasters [ 31 , 32 ].

As in the case of family preparedness, workplace preparedness involves planning activities, such as speaking with employees about the impact and importance of preparing the company for natural hazards, having an emergency plan in place, alternative energy supplies for the company’s operation following a natural disaster, insurance for this type of events, and the presence of an emergency kit in the company, among many others [ 21 , 23 , 27 , 31 , 33 ].

One factor that is most closely related to workplace preparedness is company size [ 27 , 31 , 33 ]. This is because companies with a larger number of employees have formalized risk reduction processes, and greater resources to implement them [ 31 ].

Sociodemographic variables and preparedness level

Several of the studies that link gender to the adoption of preparedness measures conclude that women prepare more than men [ 29 , 34 ], especially when it comes to measures related to creating a family emergency plan, the safety of household members, and the use of preparedness messages [ 35 ]. Similarly, it has been reported that married people or those who live with their partner show higher levels of preparedness than those who do not [ 23 , 36 , 37 ].

The age of subjects is also a predictor for the adoption of preparedness measures. While some studies conclude that older people adopt more preparedness measures, with one of the main reasons being previous exposure to and/or experience with natural disasters [ 29 , 38 ]. In other studies researchers suggest that age is not significantly related to the adoption of preparedness measures [ 36 , 39 ].

The presence of children under 18 years of age in the household is associated to higher levels of preparedness [ 37 , 40 , 41 ]. In a study conducted on a random sample of 1,158 households in Memphis, Tennessee, Edwards [ 39 ] suggests that parents feel responsible for the safety of children, and also because children receive more information (from their school environment) about how to prepare for natural hazards, motivating parents to implement these types of measures. Similarly, Pfefferbaum & North [ 42 ] indicate that parents are more concerned about what their children will experience during a natural disaster, which may prompt a desire to anticipate its consequences and to prepare in advance to mitigate any possible negative effects.

Methodology

The research focused on the inhabitants of Copiapó and Tierra Amarilla municipalities (see Fig 1 ) in the Atacama Region in the north of Chile, since they are at risk of multiple natural hazards, particularly earthquakes and floods.

• PPT PowerPoint slide
• PNG larger image
• TIFF original image

The maps in the top left show the earthquakes that affected the Atacama Region. The map on the right shows the Copiapó and Tierra Amarilla municipalities, the flooded area of the 2015 event and the location of the households surveyed.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214249.g001

Geographic characteristics.

The Atacama Region, Chile, has a surface area of 75,176 km 2 , equivalent to 9.94% of the country’s total (see Fig 1 ). Copiapó and Tierra Amarilla municipalities account for the 37% of the Region’s surface area. The climate of Copiapó and Tierra Amarilla is semi-arid, with scarce and light rainfall during the winter months. A phenomenon known as the “Altiplanic winter” takes place here, which triggers rainfall between the summer months of December and March [ 43 ]. The “Altiplanic winter” is the name given to the phenomenon of rainfall between December and March in the north of the country, as a result of moisture originating from the Atlantic Ocean [ 43 ]. However, rainfall has occurred during winter produced by the “Altiplanic winter” phenomenon that may intensify and produce extreme hydrometeorological events, due to the presence of weather patterns known as El Niño and La Niña [ 44 ].

Population.

Copiapó and Tierra Amarilla municipalities (see Fig 1 ) are home to more than 60% of the Atacama Region’s population. The proportion of women in these municipalities is 48.6% and 42.4%, respectively [ 45 ]. Regarding age, the region’s population can be classified as follows: 19.3% are between 18 and 29 years of age, 21.0% are between 30 and 44 years of age, 19.3% are between 45 and 59 years of age, and 13.2% are above 60 years of age. A similar trend occurs for the populations of the Copiapó and Tierra Amarilla municipalities.

On December 2017, the unemployment rate in these localities reached 6.7%, slightly above the national average, which was 6.4% [ 46 ]. Mining is the sector which has the greatest influence on the country’s economic development, accounting for 10% of national GDP, generating 8.4% of national income, and representing at least half of total exports (55%) as of 2017 [ 47 ]. Currently, Chile is the largest copper producer in the world. As with other regions in the north of Chile, the main economic activity of Copiapó and Tierra Amarilla is mining (copper and other minerals), which accounts for 28% of the region’s GDP and is one of the main factors affecting employment rates. As of 2017, 15% of all workers in the region were employed in the mining sector, of which 92% were men [ 45 ].

Natural disasters in the study area.

The localities of the Atacama Region have an extensive history of natural disasters, particularly extreme hydrometeorological events causing significant floods, with the events that took place in 1997 and 2015 considered the most catastrophic. In April 1997, intense rainfall caused rivers in the Atacama Region to overflow, producing floods that affected mostly to Copiapó (see Fig 1 ). A total of 22 people died, and material losses were estimated at USD 180 million [ 9 ]. Almost two decades later, in March 2015, there was a hydrometeorological event considered the largest in its history. More than 45mm of rain fell in approximately 48 hours [ 48 ]. The effects were devastating, mainly for the towns of Copiapó, Paipote, and Tierra Amarilla. A total of 31 people died, 16 were declared missing, 30,000 were displaced, and more than 164,000 people were affected by the event [ 49 ]. The material damages were estimated at more than USD 1.5 billion.

The Atacama Region’s localities are not only vulnerable to the occurrence of major floods but also, like the rest of the country, to severe geophysical events. Chile’s location in the Pacific Ring of Fire makes it one of the countries with the highest levels of seismic and volcanic activity on the planet. The largest earthquake recorded in the study area occurred in 1877, with a magnitude of 8.8 Mw on the Richter scale [ 50 ]. The second largest earthquake in the area occurred in 1922, with a magnitude of 8.5 Mw on the Richter scale [ 51 ]. The consequences of this event were devastating: 40% of houses were reduced to ruins, a further 45% requiring demolition, and the rest in dire need of repair [ 52 ]. The most recent earthquake in the area occurred in 2014 and is considered the third most destructive to hit the region. It had a magnitude of 8.2 Mw on the Richter scale, affected 13,000 homes, and caused the death of six people. Economic losses were estimated at more than USD 100 million. Despite these events, the scientific community has demonstrated that there are still subduction zones that have not been activated for more than 150 years, and as such the probability of another event with similar characteristics occurring in the near future is very high [ 53 ].

The survey was separated into three sections, in which two types of natural hazard that affect the region were studied: earthquakes and floods. The first section contained questions about the level of preparedness for these two hazards. The second section assessed the participants’ prior experience of floods, and their evacuation experience in the latest event of 2015. Finally, the third section included questions about the participants’ sociodemographic characteristics. As this survey forms part of a larger study, only the measures that were used in this study are described below.

Preparedness . The earthquake and flood preparation scale was structured into two sub-scales; one to measure household preparedness (2 items) and another to measure workplace preparedness (3 items). The items on both sub-scales were adapted from previous studies [ 21 , 23 , 28 , 29 ]. The participants were required to answer the questions associated with each sub-scale on each hazard (earthquake and flood) using a dichotomous scale (1) Yes, (0) No, as shown in Table 1 . The set of preparedness actions of the questionnaire considered the main actions suggested by International Agencies as minimum elements of preparation of individuals. The yes/no answers to these questions would be indicative of participants' perception of preparedness rather than an objective measure of the actions they actually perform.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214249.t001

Sociodemographic characteristics . The participants were asked about various sociodemographic characteristics, including their age, gender, marital status, work activity, and whether children under 18 years of age live in their household.

Procedure and participants

The understanding of the questionnaire was assessed and validated through a focus group directed by the research team. The sample was designed through simple random sampling, based on population forecasts for the Atacama Region developed by the National Statistics Institute of Chile in 2015. The first stage considered the random selection of geographic clusters (housing blocks) by block code. Then, households were selected using the Kish table and systematic sampling. Finally, people were selected on the basis of a quota system (to allow variability of gender and age). The survey took place between November and December 2015 with a statistically representative sample in the Copiapó and Tierra Amarilla municipalities. A group of interviewers contacted voluntary participants, who had to complete a paper questionnaire face to face at their homes (receiving no compensation of any form). Finally, a total of 476 people successfully completed the survey. The average age of the sample was 49 years (SD = 17.6 years, with a range of 18–94 years of age), and 66.9% of the participants were women. All procedures were approved by the Ethics Committee of the University Andres Bello.

Regarding participants’ work activity, 37.2% declared that they were employed, 35.5% were homemakers, 4.6% were studying, and 11.8% were retired. Of the total number of participants who declared that they were employed (179 participants), 45% were women. While the main employment sectors for women were services (social, personal and community) and commerce, for men, the main sectors were large and medium-scale mining, transport (mainly related to mining) and construction.

Data analysis

First, a descriptive analysis of the data was carried out to assess the existence of coding errors and lost data. Then, an internal consistency analysis was performed on the full sample ( n = 476 ). The internal consistency of each sub-scale was assessed through two measures: Cronbach's alpha and corrected item-total correlation. For the first measure, values above 0.7 suggest highly consistent scales [ 54 ]. For the second measure, values above 0.3 are suggested [ 55 ]. Item-total correlation values lower than the cutoff level imply that the item is not correlated with the sub-scale, and as such it should be omitted.

To characterize the profile of participants with higher (or lower) levels of preparedness, difference in means analyses (using post-hoc Tukey tests) and a Factorial ANOVA were carried out.

Internal consistency

The internal consistency of the preparedness sub-scales was analyzed through alpha-Cronbach and corrected item-total correlation. For each participant, the preparedness sub-scales were calculated as the sum of the items that compose each one (see Table 1 ). For both hazards considered, the values of household preparedness range from 0 to 2, and for workplace preparedness range from 0 to 3. The sub-scales complied with all of the predefined requirements, and as such no items were eliminated. The α -Cronbach values for the household and workplace preparedness sub-scales for earthquakes and floods were above 0.8, and can be considered to be highly consistent (see Table 1 ).

Earthquake vs. flood preparedness

Table 1 shows the descriptive analysis of the participants’ responses to earthquake and flood preparedness questions. Significant differences are observed when comparing the participants’ degree of household preparedness and workplace preparedness to face both hazards. While the majority of participants said that they were prepared for an earthquake both at work and at home (see Table 1A ), a significantly lower proportion claimed to be prepared at work and at home for a flood (see Table 1B ).

Household preparedness

Table 2 shows the average values associated with household preparedness for earthquakes and floods, broken down by the sociodemographic characteristics of the sample. It can be observed that the participants stated that they were significantly more prepared at home for an earthquake than a flood ( p < 0.001), regardless of their age, gender, marital status, and work activity. This result is an important warning sign for local and regulatory authorities, given that the recent history of natural disasters in the region reveals that floods have caused the greatest human and material losses.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214249.t002

Similarly, for both earthquakes and floods, it can be observed that the level of household preparedness by marital status and age group showed statistically significant differences ( p < 0.1). In the former case, participants who were married or living with their partner declared higher levels of household preparedness than single, separated or widowed participants. In the latter case, subjects 60 years of age and above declared the lowest levels of household preparedness among the different age groups. In general, subjects between 30 and 59 years of age declared the highest levels of household preparedness to face both earthquakes and floods.

In the case of household preparedness for floods , women declared a lower level of preparedness compared to men.

To characterize the sociodemographic profile of subjects with higher (or lower) levels of declared household preparedness , a factorial ANOVA was carried out using sociodemographic characteristics as independent variables, and household preparedness as the dependent variable. The first columns in Table 3 show the results of the model for household preparedness for earthquakes ( F = 204.292, p = 0.000), which explained 23.2% of the variance. The results suggest that the groups defined for the Work Activity variable have significantly different levels of household preparedness ( p < 0.10). Similarly, the effects of two-way interactions (AgeGroup x MaritalStatus) and (WorkActivity x MaritalStatus) also showed significantly different levels of household preparedness for earthquakes . Three-way interactions (AgeGroup x MaritalStatus x Gender) and (WorkActivity x MaritalStatus x ChildrenAge) were statistically significant for household preparedness for earthquakes .

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214249.t003

Fig 2A . shows the groups associated with the two-way interaction between (AgeGroup x MaritalStatus) and (WorkActivity x MaritalStatus). Based on Table 2 and Fig 2A ., it can be concluded that the profile of subjects with the highest level of household preparedness for earthquakes are between 30 and 59 years of age, married or living with their partner, and working or studying. On the other hand, the subjects with the lowest levels of household preparedness for earthquakes are those below 30 years old or above 60 years old, retired and single, separated or widowed. With regard to the three-way interactions, no clear trends were observed that enable to infer an evident profile.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214249.g002

The columns on the right-hand side of Table 3 show the results of the model for household preparedness for floods ( F = 39.125, p = 0.000), which explained 19.6% of the variance. The only groups which show significantly different levels of household preparedness for floods were those defined by the Gender variable. Meanwhile, the three-way interactions (ChildrenAge x MaritalStatus x WorkActivity) and (ChildrenAge x AgeGroup x WorkActivity) were statistically significant for household preparedness for floods .

Based on the results shown in Table 2 and Table 3 , we can conclude that men aged between 45 and 59 years of age who live with their partner declared the highest level of household preparedness for floods . On the other hand, the subjects who declared the lowest level of preparedness are women above 60 years of age who are single, separated, divorced or widowed. About the three-way interactions, no clear trends that suggest an evident profile may be inferred.

Workplace preparedness

Table 4 shows the average values associated with workplace preparedness for earthquakes and floods, according to the sociodemographic characteristics of the sample ( n = 179 participants who declared that they were employed). The results indicate that participants are significantly better prepared at work to face an earthquake than a flood ( p < 0.001), regardless of their age, gender, and marital status.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214249.t004

Both for earthquakes and floods, the MaritalStatus variable showed statistically significant differences ( p < 0.10); that is, participants who are married or living with their partner declared higher levels of workplace preparedness .

In the case of workplace preparedness for earthquakes , participants who declared that they live with children under 18 years of age in their household showed higher levels of preparedness. Similar to the situation that occurred for household preparedness , women declared a lower level of workplace preparedness for floods compared to men.

The first columns of Table 5 show the results of the factorial ANOVA model using sociodemographic characteristics as independent variables and workplace preparedness for earthquakes as the dependent variable. The model explained 23.9% of the variance ( F = 171.612, p = 0.000). The results indicate that the effects of the two-way interactions between the AgeGroup and Children variables show significantly different levels of workplace preparedness for earthquakes .

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214249.t005

Fig 2B . shows the two-way interaction between the AgeGroup and Children variables. Based on the results shown in Table 5 and Fig 2B ., it can be concluded that the profile of subjects who have the highest level of workplace preparedness for earthquakes are married or living with their partners, between 45 and 59 years of age, and have school-age children in their household. On the other hand, the participants with the lowest levels of workplace preparedness for earthquakes are those who are single (separated, divorced or widowed), above 60 years of age, and do not have school-age children living in the household.

The columns on the right-hand side of Table 5 show the results of the model using workplace preparedness for floods as the dependent variable. This model explained 17.7% of the variance ( F = 32.020, p = 0.000). The results show that the groups defined by the Gender and MaritalStatus variables have significantly different levels of workplace preparedness ( p < 0.10). Likewise, the two-way interaction effects of the Gender and MaritalStatus variables show significantly different levels of workplace preparedness for floods . Fig 2C . shows the two-way interaction between the Gender and MaritalStatus variables. Based on the results shown in Table 4 and Fig 2C ., it may be concluded that while the profile of subjects with the highest declared level of workplace preparedness for floods is men who are married or living with their partner, the profile of those with the lowest level is women who are single, separated, divorced or widowed.

The objective of this study was to assess the level of household and workplace preparedness of people living in an area exposed to multiple natural hazards and identify those groups of people with different preparedness levels.

Household and workplace preparedness

We conclude that significant differences exist in the preparedness levels declared by participants depending on the type of hazard analyzed. In fact, participants declared that they were significantly more prepared (both at home and at work) to face an earthquake than a flood, regardless of their age, gender, marital status and work activity. These results are an important warning sign for regulators and authorities, given that the recent history of natural disasters in the study area reveals that floods have caused the greatest human and material losses. Additionally, the influence of climate change is expected to produce an increase in weather phenomena, which would increase the frequency of extreme hydrometeorological events in the northern of Chile.

Among the reasons that may explain the above results is the fact that, historically, the country and the study area have placed greater emphasis on preparedness measures for earthquakes than for floods. In recent years, Chile has been affected by major earthquakes, with one of the most destructive one taking place on February 27, 2010 in the south of the country. This event caused great alarm and concern among citizens and government authorities, not only due to the destructive effects of the event, but also the shortcomings uncovered regarding the level of preparedness and coordination of government institutions responsible for disaster risk reduction. This situation received widespread media coverage, and was the subject of intense political debate which lasted for several years [ 56 , 57 ].

In addition to the above, the scientific community has indicated that the recent earthquakes that have occurred in the north of the country provide evidence that there are still subduction zones which have not been activated in almost 150 years [ 53 ]. As such, the scientific community and authorities still expect a mega-earthquake to affect the study area. This situation has led to the implementation of many communication and community preparedness plans and programs to face a potential mega-earthquake in the region in recent decades. Awareness from communities about the likelihood of an earthquake is high and motivate them to be prepared for a future event.

Our results also show high levels of declared workplace preparedness for earthquakes , which could have its roots in the presence of large mining companies in the region. In fact, the mining industry has for decades constituted the main source of development in the region, in which large mining companies have played an important role in local economies. The presence of large mining companies represents one of the greatest opportunities for the development and implementation of preparedness programs in the face of hazards, given that, as they have large numbers of employees, their emergency risk reduction and response processes are more formalized.

Although the history of earthquakes in Chile have led both public and private-sector organizations to develop increasingly effective citizen and institutional preparedness strategies, the floods that occurred in 2015 demonstrated that the Atacama Region also reveal the need to improve preparedness strategies, programs and plans to face extreme hydrometeorological events. It is therefore recommended that institutions responsible for disaster risk reduction in the region design preparedness plans and programs that recognize and integrate the different hazards present in the region, given that the prioritization of preparedness strategies for one hazard may increase vulnerability to others.

A sociodemographic profile of preparedness

Regarding the sociodemographic variables which are related to the family and workplace preparedness and in line with previous studies [ 29 , 38 ], it is concluded that the subject’s age is significantly related to their declared levels of preparedness: in general, subjects of 30 to 59 years of age declared the highest levels of preparedness. Some authors posit that this could be explained because adults in this stage of life acquire greater care responsibilities (either for others or their own assets), which may give rise to increased interest in involving themselves in preparedness measures [ 41 ]. On the other hand, the low levels of preparedness declared by young people may be explained by the fact that, in general, they have a lower perception of natural disaster risk, which translates into lower willingness to adopt preparedness measures [ 58 ].

Being married or living with a partner was significantly related to higher levels of preparedness within the household. Previous studies have concluded that the presence of a significant other generates greater concern among subjects, and therefore greater willingness to prepare for potential natural disasters [ 39 ]. Regarding these arguments, the presence of school-age children in the household also produces higher levels of preparedness for natural hazards. Previous studies have argued that the presence of children in the household increases participation in preparedness measures due to the fact that children motivate the actions of adults, bring information regarding safety home from school, and because adults aim to protect children through this type of measures [ 39 ].

Finally, our results suggest that the level of preparedness for floods significantly differs depending on the subject’s gender: in general, men declare that they are more prepared for floods than women, contrary to what was expected. The authors attribute this result to the fact that the majority of men in the sample who are employed work in the large and medium-scale mining sector, while almost all women work in the services and commerce sectors. As mentioned throughout this study, the mining sector is the main source of employment and development in the region, characterized by the presence of large mining companies who provide direct employment to more than 15% of workers in the region, 92% of which are men [ 46 ]. Due to regulatory requirements, these companies have advanced security, hygiene and prevention standards which are frequently monitored. In line with previous studies [ 27 , 31 , 33 ], the employees of these large companies have greater learning and training opportunities with regard to emergency risk reduction and response processes, so it is reasonable to believe that those who work in such companies (mainly men) would have higher levels of preparedness for earthquakes and floods.

The above highlights the potential importance of large companies in the areas where they operate, not only because of their impact on local economies, but also due to their potential influence on communities’ degree of preparedness for natural disasters. Therefore, the presence of large companies in the region is a relevant and important factor to be considered by government authorities when designing disaster risk reduction programs. Families with some members working in large mining companies may improve their levels of family preparedness for natural disasters to the extent in which these members bring information and experience from work regarding emergency risk reduction and response processes home with them.

Based on the results obtained, we conclude that sociodemographic variables such as age, marital status, gender and the presence of school-age children in the household characterize the profile of subjects with greater (or lower) levels of family and workplace preparedness to face potential natural disasters in multi-hazard environments. One of the greatest influencers on the motivation to prepare for natural disasters is the presence of significant others in the household. In general, adults between 30 to 59 years of age who live with their partners and have school-age children in the household constitute the sociodemographic profile of subjects with the highest declared levels of preparedness to face potential natural disasters. On the other hand, adults below 30 years of age or above 60 years old who are single, separated or widowed, and do not have school-age children living in the household represent the profile of subjects with the lowest declared levels of preparedness to face a potential natural disaster. Groups that are less prepared should be target of interventions in order to raise awareness and motivate them to adopt preparedness actions.

Also, our findings reveal the need to continue investigating how people perceive/adopt the recommendations provided by local authorities (i.e., if they understand them and if they are capable of carrying them out), so to be able to evaluate which factors facilitate (or discourage) the adoption of preparedness actions. As some studies indicate, the preparedness actions are not always carried out by the individuals in the same way that authorities recommended it [ 59 ]. Therefore, it is necessary to keep a continuous dialogue between authorities and the civil population to effectively communicate preparedness strategies. This is a crucial element to go forward in the design of public policies that take into account the social, cultural and political context in which people live.

Finally, the institutions responsible for developing local disaster risk reduction plans and programs must appropriately characterize their target audiences if they expect to obtain more effective and efficient results. We hope that the results and conclusions reported in this study become a useful input to achieve this.

Limitations

There are certain limitations to this study. The number of participants in the study was small, as it was made up of a representative sample of solely the Copiapó and Tierra Amarilla municipalities in the Atacama Region. Therefore, studies must be carried out in other cities in the country in order to capture the different events that they experience, as well as geographic and cultural differences.

The level of preparedness was assessed for participants solely through a single measure and using the self-reporting method. Even though dichotomous questions assess the perceived level of preparedness and do not allow to evaluate their objective level (or if they comprehend the emergency plan of their workplace or city), these questions provide an estimate of the basic actions of preparedness recommended by leading International Agencies, which should be done by individuals to face natural hazards. Although this method is extensively used in the literature, it does limit greater understanding of preparedness behavior.

Supporting information

S1 dataset. data set used in the research..

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0214249.s001

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• 26 July 2023

Meet the scientists planning for disasters

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In 2021, the La Soufrière Volcano in St. Vincent and the Grenadines erupted explosively. Credit: Steve Wallace/World Bank

Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, landslides, wildfires and droughts are increasing in frequency and intensity, in large part because of climate change ( M. Coronese et al . Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116 , 21450–21455; 2019 ). In 2022, at least one event occurred every day, according to data from EM-DAT, an international disaster database. And a 2021 report from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization stated that the “annual occurrence of disasters is now more than three times that of the 1970s and 1980s” (see go.nature.com/43pmeke ).

But natural-hazard events don’t necessarily have to escalate into widespread disasters. Even though they are more common today than they were in the past, the number of deaths from them has drastically declined. In 1920–29, for example, more than 8.5 million people died globally as a result of natural disasters, compared with just over 503,000 in 2010–19, according to data from EM-DAT. This can be attributed partly to improvements in disaster risk reduction and preparedness measures. Nature talked to five disaster researchers about how they are working to reduce the risks and impacts of natural-hazard events.

EROUSCILLA JOSEPH: Volcanic activity under lockdown

Volcanologist at the Seismic Research Centre at the University of the West Indies in Saint Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago.

Here in the West Indies, we face hurricanes and tropical storms every year, and flooding, landslides and volcanic eruptions are routine. I work for the Seismic Research Centre at the University of the West Indies in Saint Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago, which began monitoring seismic and volcanic activity in the region 70 years ago. We cover an area of 800 kilometres, stretching from the islands of Saint Kitts and Nevis down to Trinidad and Tobago. We monitor 9 territories and 17 volcanoes.

In 2008, I became the first student to officially graduate with a PhD in volcanology from the centre. In March 2020, COVID-19 hit. That December, the La Soufrière volcano on Saint Vincent and the Grenadines erupted, beginning with a slow extrusion, but becoming explosive on 9 April 2021. It was truly a trial by fire to navigate that process during a pandemic, under lockdown and without vaccines.

Nature Spotlight: Disaster preparedness

Seismic data and information from satellite imagery warned us of unusual activity two days after Christmas. Some staff members at the Soufrière Monitoring Unit of the Saint Vincent and the Grenadines’ National Emergency Management Organisation went up to have a look, and they saw that a new dome had emerged from the floor of the crater. We immediately deployed staff to reactivate the local observatory, upgrade the monitoring network, provide real-time updates to the authorities and support education and outreach related to the volcanic activity ( E. P. Joseph et al . Nature Commun . 13 , 4129; 2022 ).

The eruption started off effusively, and we had to put measures in place to deal with the possibility of it transitioning to explosive. Effusive means that magma erupts at the surface of a volcano and forms a lava flow or dome, whereas explosive describes when magma explodes out of a volcano, often sending ash, gas and lava into the air. On the basis of the data we saw, we provided advice to the prime minister of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the government of Barbados and several other disaster-management agencies on the likelihood of an eruption, so that they could raise alert levels and start coordinating a response.

We helped with communication to stakeholders and the public about what was happening and how to prepare. Because of limited resources and the pandemic, the centre’s outreach team had to hold virtual community meetings and use trucks with megaphones to keep people informed. In April 2021, the activity of the volcano began to change. More than 22,000 people were evacuated over a period of 24 hours, just before the explosive eruption began. We rotated teams of scientists on the island until November 2021.

We’re a small agency operating in an under-resourced part of the world, and we were able to respond to this volcanic eruption quickly and before any lives were lost. It was a major success, and our achievement was recognized globally by the 2022 Volcanic Surveillance and Crisis Management Award presented by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior. Things can fall apart easily if there is no coordination between the teams, government and disaster organizations. But if you work together and rely on each other, you can push forward, even in an emergency situation.

Emmanuel Raju’s involvement in the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was a career-defining moment. Credit: Courtesy Emmanuel Raju

EMMANUEL RAJU: Stop blaming nature

Global-health researcher at the University of Copenhagen and director of the Copenhagen Center for Disaster Research.

When you grow up in India, you grow up with natural hazards. I’ve seen a number of cyclones and experienced many school closures due to heavy rains in the monsoon season. At the time of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, I was an undergraduate student studying economics, political science and sociology at St. Joseph’s College in Bengaluru. I volunteered to help mobilize support to some of the main areas that were affected. That experience left a big impression on me. When I graduated in 2007, I learnt that the Tata Institute of Social Sciences in Mumbai had launched a disaster management programme, one of the first of its kind in the region.

Most of my work now deals with trying to challenge conventional notions of how we understand disasters. Disasters are often seen as ‘natural’ in some way, but they occur because of vulnerabilities in society. I work a lot in South Asia. When a disaster occurs, some individuals are disproportionately affected, depending on their social status, caste, religion, gender and other social and economic characteristics. We need to stop blaming nature for the damage caused to the lives and livelihoods of individuals: it is human action and inaction that contribute to many forms of disaster risk.

Another major challenge is breaking disciplinary silos of how disasters are studied. Much of my work at the Copenhagen Center for Disaster Research focuses on bringing together people from various disciplines. You cannot solve issues caused by disasters and climate change with just one discipline. You need different voices from around the world and from many disciplines, including law, economics, physics, social science and health services.

RASHMIN GUNASEKERA: Restoring order after chaos

Disaster risk-management specialist at the World Bank in Washington DC and leader of the Global Program for Disaster Risk Analytics at the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery in Washington DC.

Soon after disasters happen, governments are often left in chaotic situations. Officials need to assess the impacts, so they can make decisions about where to send resources and how to quickly get money to the places that need it. The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery is a partnership set up by the World Bank and funded by 11 countries that helps low- and middle-income countries to manage and reduce risks from natural hazards and climate change.

Lessons learnt from doing research amid a humanitarian crisis

Some of the work I do as part of the programme is to help with rapid assessments of the impact of disasters to give a monetary value to the damages. People go to the field to conduct these assessments, which take about six to eight weeks. Soon after the massive earthquake in Nepal in April 2015, we started using hazard modelling, engineering and census data to estimate the damage remotely. Our assessment methodology has an accuracy of 90% and takes only about two weeks to do.

My work with the World Bank, where I started in 2012, involves assessing risk, which is pivotal for disaster risk reduction and preparedness. It’s a complicated subject area that blends principles of science, technology, engineering and economics. Assessing risk consists of three parts. One is the built-up environment, which captures the types of building in a location, how they are spatially distributed and who lives in them. Another is the type, magnitude and frequency of the hazard itself. The third is vulnerability. I combine these three pieces of information to estimate the future potential for damage.

I strive to build effective partnerships and share knowledge across academia and the private and public sectors. We make our methodology for risk assessment available to anyone who wants to use it. In April, I travelled to Fiji to help some of my colleagues to work out what data sets are available and how to put different types of data together to understand how to represent a built-up environment, and more broadly, how to assess the risk of disaster in this location.

Ultimately, progress can happen only when knowledge is taken up by governments, risk-and disaster-management agencies and academia. I’m still an academic at heart, so one of the most satisfying things to see is the impact of the knowledge you generate.

Emily Chan investigates how extreme events affect human populations. Credit: CCOUC (2016)

EMILY CHAN: Linking human health to the climate

Medical researcher at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) and director of the Collaborating Centre for Oxford University and CUHK for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response.

As a researcher and practitioner of humanitarian medicine, I try to understand how extreme events might affect human populations. I’ve always been curious about what people do when they experience a disaster such as an earthquake, and why. How do response decision makers and medical workers mobilize resources to help those affected? What do affected people remember, and what do they feel emotional about? Why do researchers choose to document certain information? How do we prevent important knowledge from being carelessly left unrecorded?

A large part of my work involves building models to examine the impact that the climate might have on human health in urban contexts, mostly in Chinese cities. Specifically, I study the impacts of temperature, rainfall, sea-level rise and extreme events on injury, disease, hospitalizations and mortality. For instance, people can have problems with extremely high or low temperatures when they are exposed to them for a prolonged period of time. Rainfall can make freshwater flooding and extreme drought worse, and a rise in sea level can be corrosive and affect the prevalence of infectious diseases such as cholera.

Keep talking to make fieldwork a true team effort

After my colleagues and I began publishing models linking human health to the climate about 10 years ago, we were invited to join a number of committees and talk about our work. Some of our evidence was quoted by the Hong Kong government, and warning policies were changed on the basis of the relationships we found between temperature and mortality ( E. Y. Y. Chan et al. J. Epidemiol. Commun. Health 66 , 322–327; 2012 ).

Developing policies is another crucial part of what I do. I’m one of the co-chairs of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management research group. In 2020, I became a co-chair of the organization’s COVID-19 Social Science working group. When there are major infectious-disease crises globally, researchers and policymakers need to work together to look at the latest evidence and share it with governments so that they can work out what to do in regards to evacuation, lockdowns, isolation, the use of face masks and even ethical research policies.

STERN KITA: An agrarian economy under threat

Disaster and climate-change researcher at the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) in Lilongwe.

In Malawi, the three most common hazards are flooding, drought and strong winds. Because our economy is agrarian, droughts and pest infestations can cause serious cases of food insecurity. We are also affected by tropical cyclones, landslides, earthquakes, fires and outbreaks of cholera and other diseases. I’m often busy.

I worked for the Malawi government for about 11 years and then joined the United Nations in 2020. My work focuses on mitigation and disaster preparedness measures. For instance, I help to develop early-warning systems so that communities are notified of a hazard in advance. I also support projects that protect riverbanks by planting trees to slow the speed of water during a flood, and we’re working to improve drainage systems in urban areas.

In March and April, I travelled a lot to check in on these projects and to support the government in conducting a needs assessment after tropical cyclone Freddy hit the southern part of Malawi. Raising public awareness and building capacity are key parts of my job. I teach disaster risk management at the Malawi University of Science and Technology in Thyolo, and I am helping to build a team that can coordinate and implement disaster risk reduction actions at various levels in the country.

For me, this work is exciting. You can see the results of your efforts and people becoming more resilient to disasters. We have crises almost every day in almost every country. We need to ensure that we provide as much information as we can to build resilience.

Nature 619 , S1-S3 (2023)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-02312-2

These interviews have been edited for length and clarity.

This article is part of Nature Spotlight: Disaster preparedness , an editorially independent supplement. Advertisers have no influence over the content.

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Disaster Risk Management

Disasters hurt the poor and vulnerable the most. Over the past decade, the World Bank has emerged as the global leader in disaster risk management, supporting client countries to assess exposure to hazards and address disaster risks.

In today’s unpredictable world, concerns about pandemics, natural hazards , climate variability, economic fluctuations, and job security are ever-present. These uncertainties often lead us to ponder numerous “what ifs,” creating a sense of apprehension. So, how do we manage these anxieties effectively? The first step is to understand the nature of the challenges we face, distinguishing between what we can influence and what is beyond our control. While we can't predict when a disaster will strike, we can certainly prepare for its impact by saving for shocks, investing in insurance, or reinforcing our infrastructure and systems.

The World Bank, in partnership with the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) , plays a pivotal role in guiding countries and communities through these challenges. It focuses on identifying and assessing disaster risks, helping us to not only understand these risks better but also to make informed decisions on how to protect ourselves without exhausting our resources on unlikely events. This strategy has significantly changed our approach to dealing with risks, shifting from reactive responses to proactive prepared ness, and steadily integrating disaster risk management into all areas of development work.

However, as climate change intensifies, the stakes are getting higher. Disasters do not discriminate, impacting people of all ages and socioeconomic statuses. Yet, the consequences are not felt equally by all; those who are less prepared or more vulnerable bear a heavier burden, such as women and people with disabilities . Countries supported by the International Development Association (IDA) , part of the World Bank that helps the poorest countries, are also highly vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate and intensifying disaster risks and are often affected by fragile, conflict and violen t situations.

Recognizing this, the World Bank has introduced new instruments such as the Crisis Toolkit and the IDA Crisis Response Window to help countries better respond to crisis and strengthen preparedness for future shocks. It is also increasing funding for climate financing and focusing on knowledge to influence the global development agenda. Crucially, this effort extends to fostering partnerships with development institutions, technical firms, the private sector, civil society groups, and academia. These collaborative efforts ensure that the most vulnerable communities have the support needed to face an increasingly uncertain future with confidence, drawing on a wide network of expertise and resources to enhance resilience across the board.

Last Updated: Apr 29,2024

The World Bank has consistently led global efforts to foster resilience and improve crisis response capabilities. Through financial and technical support, it helps countries protect against climate change and natural hazards, aligning its initiatives with key international frameworks such as the Paris Agreement ,  the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development , and  the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

In partnership with the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)  the World Bank has helped countries’ shift their focus from a reactive disaster response to proactive preparedness and prevention. This collaboration has also been pivotal in guiding countries towards integrating disaster risk management into the broader development objectives. One key instrument in this effort is the Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRS)  that assists countries in identifying actions that both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and bolster adaptation efforts. In line with its   Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) ,  the World Bank has committed to allocating 50% of its climate financing towards adaptation and resilience, ensuring that climate considerations are woven into development programs.

Evolving into a “Better Bank”, the World Bank is enhancing its crisis preparedness and response toolkit to improve financial resilience in low- and lower middle-income countries. It is also transitioning into a more effective "Knowledge Bank," adept at addressing contemporary developmental challenges though a knowledge compact that utilizes technology to boost development outcomes. This approach combines the World Bank Group's vast resources in data analytics, research, and best practices with a dynamic mix of public-private financing to drive innovative solutions.

The World Bank continues to lead in research, data utilization, and innovation for risk assessment and informed decision-making. The Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) methodology, which is conducted remotely, allows for swift preliminary assessments of physical damages, thus facilitating the prioritization of resources where they are most needed. Investments to strengthen hydrometeorological (hydromet) services and early warning systems are playing a crucial role in protecting communities and improving the efficiency of weather-dependent sectors.   Nature-based approaches for climate resilience are also actively supporting green development.

Advances in big data computing, machine learning, and satellite imagery are being harnessed to better understand the changing urban environment, and heat mapping projects are being undertaken to address the extreme urban heat challenge. GFDRR’s City Resilience Program continues to help cities explore financing opportunities and ensure new urban resilience investments are risk informed. A tool for strengthening the health system to emergencies was developed as well as a comprehensive assessment report on building regulations in Sub-Saharan Africa .

The World Bank also advocates for an inclusive approach to disaster risk management that not only strengthens the resilience of communities and ensures fair access to resources and support, but also taps into the unique insights of all community members, including marginalized groups such as women, the elderly and people with disabilities. Additionally, the World Bank recognizes the unique challenges of people in fragile, conflict, and violence situations , and emphasizes the integration of disaster risk management to address both immediate relief and long-term resilience strategies to build sustainable development and peace to strengthen communities against future disasters.

Building on the wide range of current partnerships ranging from the United Nations, multilateral development banks, donors, private sector and the civil society, the World Bank is committed to enhancing its impact and better serving the needs of low- and middle-income countries.

• In support of efforts by authorities in Chad to explore the use of nature-based solutions (NBS) for resilience , a technical team utilized the NBS Opportunity Scan to identify the areas in which NBS could reduce pluvial and fluvial flood risks and address the issue of urban heat in the country’s capital of N’Djamena. The creation or restoration of urban green spaces; the use of rain gardens and bioswales; the rehabilitation and maintenance of urban wetlands and/or retention basins; and the development of agro-sylvo-pastoral systems were determined to be the NBS types with the highest potential for reducing risks from flooding and stormwater runoff.
• In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the national government has been tackling the problem of soil erosion in the city of Kananga, with the support of an assessment which has helped identify which interventions it should prioritize in both the short and long-term. It is anticipated that the immediate focus for the DRC authorities will be the stabilization of priority sites as identified in the assessment, an effort that will be supported by the World Bank’s Kananga Emergency Urban Resilience Project .
• In Mozambique, a rapid assessment of the post-disaster damage from Tropical Cyclone Freddy in early 2023, which used the World Bank and GFDRR’s Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) methodology, has informed the country’s recovery and reconstruction as well as its longer-term resilience-building . The findings have also paved the way for $300 million in assistance under the World Bank International Development Association’s Crisis Response Window (CRW), which provides funding to help countries respond to exceptionally severe crises.
• The new report, “ Building Regulations in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Status Review of the Building Regulatory Environment ,” provides the first comprehensive snapshot of the building regulatory environment in Sub-Saharan Africa, where regulations are often still based on colonial-era documents and are not adapted for disaster and climate risks. Imparting valuable guidance on enhancing and modernizing building regulatory frameworks based on a comprehensive assessment, the report has already sparked a critical dialogue around an important issue that profoundly affects countless lives and livelihoods in the region.

EAST ASIA & PACIFIC

• In Cambodia, local authorities in the capital of Phnom Penh have taken the lead in strengthening their capacity to analyze flood risk , while also integrating this analysis into their flood risk management planning processes. A key focus of the technical team’s support has been to assist the authorities in fully incorporating social and gender dimensions into their flood risk analysis and management processes. The team has also developed a mobile application which enables users to generate flood risk profiles for their respective sangkat or commune based on their current location.
• In the Marshall Islands, a workshop on disability-inclusive disaster risk management (DRM) has facilitated the translation of recommendations from a regional assessment of disability-inclusive DRM – for instance, using legal frameworks to advance disability inclusion – into practical actions relevant to the local context. Bringing together diverse perspectives and expertise, the workshop also enabled the customization of DRM strategies and initiatives to address the specific challenges and needs of the Marshall Islands. 
• In the Philippines, the historically conflict-torn Bangsamoro region has been taking steps toward adopting a conflict-sensitive approach to climate and disaster resilience . Sixty-seven officials, nearly half of whom were female, have received in-depth training on how to design conflict-sensitive disaster recovery frameworks. Informed by the training, officials are beginning to integrate conflict-sensitive interventions in disaster recovery frameworks. For instance, there are now plans to use multipurpose halls not only as evacuation centers but also as spaces for peacebuilding activities.

EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA

• In Moldova, an assessment of the disaster risk financing gap has provided the national government with crucial insights into the potential financial shortfalls that it may face in the wake of disasters. By estimating the size of this potential funding gap, the assessment has enabled the government to explore strategies for bolstering its financial readiness for disaster scenarios. A planned situational analysis, encompassing the economic impacts of past and potential future disasters across various sectors, will further inform the government about the fiscal impacts from such events.
• In Romania, local authorities have made headway in ensuring that the Romanian capital’s emergency preparedness and response system is fully inclusive and does not leave people living with disabilities behind. Majority (80%) of participants found that the trainings on disability-inclusive emergency preparedness and response supported by the team improved their understanding of the specific vulnerabilities and needs of persons living with disabilities, while 64% said that they would be likely to apply knowledge and skills from the trainings in their work.
• In Türkiye, 57 schools, representing over 1,400 classrooms, have been built based on the country’s latest seismic code , which was updated in 2018 in accordance with international earthquake engineering standards. In a testament to the success of these efforts, every single one of the 24 schools located in areas affected by the February 2023 earthquakes and aftershocks in Türkiye survived. In addition to seismic safety, each of the 57 schools built also comply with Turkish codes and regulations on land use planning, energy efficiency, fire protection, workplace safety, and access for people with disabilities.
• Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, continuous cross sectoral assessments of the war’s impacts , supported by baseline data collection, rapid remote analytics, and sectoral deep dives, have been informing recovery and reconstruction planning by the national government and the donor community. Recently, following the destruction of the Kakhovka dam on June 6, 2023, a rapid remote assessment of the impact of the dam break was conducted.  Previously, a national rapid damage and needs assessment, the second such assessment, was conducted, covering 20 sectors and including damages, losses, and needs.

LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN

• In the Caribbean, Earth observation (EO) data and artificial intelligence (AI) are increasingly being harnessed to rapidly generate baseline geospatial data designed to inform resilient infrastructure efforts. For example, in Dominica, a pilot study has been conducted where AI was used to automatically extract building footprints and classify rooftops from very high-resolution aerial images, achieving correct prediction for approximately 90%  of the houses.  An ongoing priority for the technical team is to collaborate with local experts to manually interpret, validate, and refine the AI model outputs.
• In Colombia, analytical work has supported the national government’s efforts to ensure the resilience of its health sector . To cite just one finding, geospatial analysis found that 1 in 5 health care facilities in Colombia are directly exposed to disruptive floods. This and other findings from the analytical work are expected to inform a forthcoming World Bank project that will upgrade the resilience of health facilities in Colombia. It is expected that the project will prioritize health facilities based on a tool assessing both risk exposure and vulnerability indicators which was also developed as part of the analytical work.
• In Saint Lucia, technical assistance has been provided toward the design and implementation of the country’s first-ever risk-based infrastructure asset management system . For instance, a technical team has worked closely with their St. Lucian counterparts so that they could gain hands-on practical training at every step of the development of a risk-based asset management system, from the identification of assets to the creation of protocols for asset prioritization and maintenance and repair. A risk-based approach to infrastructure asset management would enable St. Lucia to incorporate assessments of disaster and climate risks, among other risks, into how they prioritize investments.

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA

• In Djibouti and Tunisia, a technical team has developed comprehensive roadmaps for strengthening their respective hydromet services . Each of the roadmaps provide an extensive diagnostic of the gaps, challenges, and opportunities facing the countries’ hydromet services, while also proposing strategic frameworks for hydromet modernization covering short-term, medium-term, and long-term actions. The roadmaps also underscored the value of hydromet investments through a costbenefit analysis, which revealed that, in both Djibouti and Tunisia, investment in hydromet will produce socioeconomic benefits significantly greater than their costs—by up to $8 in socioeconomic benefits for every $1 invested in hydromet.
• In Jordan, the over 100 officials who participated at a workshop on strengthening disaster risk management held in Amman have begun to draw on the lessons learned to drive and inform actions toward advancing the country’s resilience-building. For instance, the Municipality of Greater Amman is moving forward with an emergency preparedness and response assessment—the first ever at the city level— in an effort that is expected to inform a short- and medium-term DRM action plan for the Jordanian capital.
• In Bangladesh, assistance has been provided toward the Bangladesh Rural Electrification Board (BREB) in incorporating weather-related hazard and climate risk data into the design of the country’s rural electricity infrastructure . For example, a technical team undertook the task of mapping power infrastructure that faced exposure to climate and disaster threats, with a particular focus on cyclone-related impacts, and pinpointing areas in need of enhancement within the rural distribution network. This analysis provided a framework for BREB to assess risks, conduct a cost-benefit analysis, and guide climate-resilient power system distribution network planning.
• In Bhutan, a technical team has provided support toward strengthening Bhutan’s policy and legislative framework for a resilient and green built environment. One of the key results has been the development of a construction quality compliance mechanism (CQCM) which will serve as a framework for regulating and enforcing compliance with the country’s national building regulations. Bhutan’s progress on advancing this and other reforms helped pave the way for the World Bank’s approval of $14.8 million in funding for the country under a Development Policy Financing (DPF) with Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO) package. 
• In the state of Nagaland, India, rapid diagnostics were conducted on 70 sample schools to understand the vulnerabilities, intervention needs, and socioeconomic characteristics of representative school infrastructure types. This engagement directly supported the Nagaland: Enhancing Classroom Teaching and Resources Project , co-financed by the World Bank, which aims, among others, to improve learning environments in schools in Nagaland. In conjunction with the rapid diagnostics, school upgrade design guidelines have also been developed which will holistically improve the safety, resilience, learning environment, and environmental health of schools in Nagaland.

The World Bank collaborates with a diverse range of partners to enhance its development impacts. Its partners include the United Nations, other multilateral institutions, local development partners, renowned universities, the private sector, civil society organizations, foundations, and national government agencies responsible for technical and development aspects of its work.

The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), a global partnership within the World Bank, is at the forefront of strengthening existing partnerships and forging new ones to continue scaling up resilience efforts. For example, Understanding Risk is an initiative of GFDRR, which is a global community of experts with the purpose of driving disruptive innovations to solve key development challenges related to disaster and climate risk management. The next global forum will be held in Japan in June 2024. Below are examples other partnerships that the World Bank and GFDRR are involved in.

United Nations Institutions and Agencies

Partnerships with UN organizations such as the United Nations office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) , World Meteorological Organization , United Nations Development Program (UNDP) , UN Women , and United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) , etc. are based on utilizing the respective comparative advantages of each party. These partnerships involve collaboration in the areas such as joint advocacy efforts, participation in new initiatives, strategic consultations, and joint project implementation at the country level.

International Organizations

Collaboration with international organizations and foundations often center around common thematic areas of interest. For example, GFDRR works closely with the European Space Agency (ESA)  to accelerate adoption of frontier Earth observation tools and services to enhance resilience of countries and communities to climate change and natural hazards. Other partners include the African Development Bank (AfDB), the World Resources Institute (WRI), and the Green Growth Knowledge Partnership , for example, to identify common priorities for investment in nature-based solutions (NBS) for climate resilience and adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Private Sector Engagement

GFDRR primarily utilizes its City Resilience Program (CRP) to establish partnerships with the private sector, to explore ways that private sector development can contribute to funding resilience investments. In the realm of disaster risk finance, GFDRR provides ongoing support to organizations such as the Insurance Development Forum, the Global Risk Modeling Alliance, and the Global Resilience Index Initiative to strengthen public-private partnerships by facilitating the transfer of technical knowledge from the reinsurance industry to sovereign governments.

Academia and Civil Society Organizations

The World Bank works closely with academic institutions to leverage their research and knowledge in disaster risk management and collaborates with civil society organizations to strengthen community resilience against disasters. For example, in FY23, Tokyo University of Science provided in-depth inputs for a new knowledge product that the GFDRR developed to advance fire safety of the built environment. GFDRR also worked with civil society on NBS capacity building with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in Uzbekistan, and it has initiated further collaboration with IUCN for a series of capacity-building activities in West Africa for FY24.

REGIONAL REPORTS

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Journal No 3 | 2021 - Disasters and crisis management

• European Court of Auditors

Attachments

Natural disasters know no borders – neither do solidarity and mutual support in times of need

Editorial By Gaston Moonen Solidarity in the face of a clear and present danger

A picture can say more than a thousand words. This is true of many situations and particularly of emergency situations caused by disasters. A natural disaster enters your mind with the image of a child rescued from the rubble, with houses and nature devastated by wildfires or tornadoes, with people swimming away from their house since they don’t have any other option. But also, in the case of man-made disasters, the image of women and children escaping from the violence of war, or refugees clinging on to a life jacket. These images subdue us, stay with us and create a connection to fellow humans at risk.

When people are facing a clear and present danger, political differences and animosities fade away and are replaced by an urge to help and offer solidarity. In my first job, working on human rights issues in the UN, I soon heard the saying ‘human rights start after breakfast’, although some would argue that human rights begin with breakfast. The idea behind this is that some of their basic needs must be fulfilled before people can start worrying, on an equal footing and in dignity, about other issues, such as human rights. The COVID-19 pandemic reminded me of this expression, since health concerns are primary concerns compared with many other human needs. With health taken for granted by many of us, the pandemic has shown that when a disaster strikes, and on such a global scale, priorities change quickly towards maintaining the physical well-being of your loved ones and yourself. At almost no matter what cost... even at the cost of certain rights considered sacred before.

While COVID-19 might spring to mind as the most obvious disaster spilling over from last year, 2021 is by no means an easy year when it comes to natural disasters. According to the International Disaster Database, the year 2020 had a higher number of disasters than the average of the last 20 years – apparently, with Atlantic hurricanes so numerous that there were not enough letters in the alphabet to name them all. But what’s new? Reports from the early 1990s identified a fivefold and record increase in disasters between 1960 and 1980 and in 1987 the UN designated the 1990s as the ‘International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction,’ calling for concerted international action. And not for the last time! The World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) has labelled 2021 as a record year when it comes to natural disasters. Increasingly, politicians are catching up scientists when it comes to recognising the link between these disasters and climate change, as also seen during the recent COP26 in Glasgow. The good news is that at least in 2020 these disasters led to substantially fewer human casualties than in many previous years. A matter of better disaster preparedness...?

When a disaster strikes, the first concern is to react quickly and properly. Proper crisis management can prove to be crucial in this first emergency phase, requiring pre-set structures for help, coordination and decisive action. In particular, it requires leadership to trigger that action: digesting various data, handling procedures and being inventive about possible solutions, the latter being particularly challenging since every disaster is unique, with its own characteristics. But leadership requires more than only decisiveness, particularly in transboundary crises. It requires empathy and a capacity to adapt, as research on crisis processes by Marij Swinkels shows (see page 7).

The bigger the disaster, the greater the coordination needs seem to be. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that creating such awareness takes time and some gap plugging (see page 35) and it can actually cost human lives when coordination is slow or only allowed reluctantly. Hence the importance of proper ex ante coordination mechanisms in humanitarian aid in disasters, as both the UN Acting Assistant Secretary-General in this area, Ramesh Rajasingham, and the EU Commissioner for Crisis Management, Janez Lenarčič, emphasise regarding their roles in global and EU crisis management (see pages 11 and 18). Noteworthy here is also that their humanitarian aid efforts are based on values showing the unconditional solidarity that sets disaster aid provision apart: both the UN and the EU are principled donors, meaning working exclusively on the basis of needs, without any regard to political or other situations. Also in the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly at the start, we saw that disagreements were set aside when facing a clear and present danger to health.

Not surprisingly, these values are also essential to the actions of major non-governmental aid organisations. Most visible perhaps are the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, whose quick and impartial presence when disaster strikes is impressive. But also to a ‘single country NGO’ such as Friendship, whose founder Runa Khan identifies adherence to values such as integrity, dignity, justice, quality and hope as preconditions for starting any of the multiple actions her NGO carries out in Bangladesh (see page 39). Such values also include transparency and accountability, not only because of donor requirements, but also since accountability mechanisms are also very important to the people affected by disaster (see page 48).

Not only are the organisations and people involved in disaster action impressive, but also the amounts of funding. This depends of course on what you define as emergency and disaster relief. Does it include disaster prevention and preparedness efforts? How do you label EU expenditure related to the COVID-19 pandemic and where does disaster aid stop and reconstruction aid commence? This last question is also relevant in view of the enormous EU efforts undertaken to mitigate the economic and fiscal consequences of the ongoing pandemic, with long- term impact for Europe (see page 140). But whatever definition you apply, the EU-funded amounts involved are substantial and are being used by the Member States and regions affected, be it by the wildfires in Greece or by an unprecedented flood in the Liège region (see pages 26 and 30).

However good the intentions for accountability in disaster aid may be, they do not form a natural symbiosis for several reasons. The very nature of emergency action - where speed is essential - creates additional risks of cutting corners when it comes to financial management. Furthermore, disasters may involve many actors, both from the aid-providing and the aid-receiving side, which often makes tracking aid flows difficult. While the urgent needs are clearly visible, the risks of fraud and corruption are just around the corner, particularly in disaster-affected areas with weak governmental structures. On top of this, it is also an area where reporting on results is essential to preserve trust: the trust of those providing the aid - be it by people directly or their governments on behalf of them - and those receiving the aid, since clear results are essential for hope, trust in future progress and ownership of the solutions the results are meant to be part of.

Enough reasons for Professor Arjen Boin to learn lessons from crises and undertake crisis audits (see page 53). Enough reasons, as ECA Member Leo Brincat and several other contributors argue (see pages 58 and 82), for public auditors to proceed with care, yet with stamina to assess compliance and performance aspects (see page 70). For the ECA, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a substantial shift in its audit planning soon after the pandemic started, with audits and reviews published or planned relating to the health and economic measures taken and envisaged or the institutional resilience displayed (see pages 65, 75 and 79). Other audit institutions in the EU have done the same, in reaction to the current pandemic, or in reaction to or anticipation of earlier disaster situations (see pages 88 and 136), sometimes leading to new solutions for assessing and reporting to add value in an expedient way (see page 107). Enough reason also for the European Parliament to insist on proper and timely reporting on the various EU funding instruments created, as MEP Corina Crețu does for example regarding the EU Solidarity Fund (see page 126).

Public auditors themselves identified quite some time ago – following the tsunami in 2004 – that it would be useful if peers provided guidance on how to audit different elements of the disaster management cycle. This translated into international guidance adopted by the global platform of public external auditors, INTOSAI. This guidance has been used, for example by the SAI of Indonesia (see page 117), and updated (see page 111). While prevention and preparedness had already been identified as important elements in this cycle, the pandemic and even more the effects of climate change - sometimes labelled climate crisis – have more than ever underlined their importance. For several public audit institutions this shows the need for more and deeper assessments of publicly funded actions for disaster prevention and preparedness. Arno Visser, President of the Netherlands Court of Audit, pleads for increased attention by auditors to‘accidents waiting to happen’(see page 91). Michel Huissoud, who heads the Swiss Federal Audit Office, even goes a step further in relation to measures taken regarding the pandemic, addressing a data gap which, if left untouched by his institution, would create serious compliance problems at a later stage (page 99).

Disaster prevention and preparedness are also key elements in many other contributions to this Journal. EU Commissioner Lenarčič observes limits to how prepared one can be if preventive measures, particularly regarding climate change, are not taken. He identifies the paradox that the urgency and visibility of disaster aid measures come at the cost of long-term measures meant to decrease the cost of disaster aid. Kevin Cardiff, former ECA Member and crisis manager, gives a practitioner’s view on how audit can do more to contribute to crisis readiness, how auditors are in a unique position to assess interactions between crisis management systems - or the lack of them – and the need for real coordination (see page 100). His call regarding risk assessments is echoed in other articles, including by IDI experts pleading for enhanced risk assessment work by SAIs (see page 122).

We have produced this Journal to share information on solidarity in times of crisis and on how public auditors are contributing to alleviating future crises. We also produced this Journal to bow to all those giving aid without any interest but the benefit of the receivers: human kindness in its pure form, aid that provides hope of a change for the better, hope in the face of clear and present danger, as for the child portrayed on our cover picture (a 2021 World Press prize winning picture), waiting to be saved before the wildfires come too close. These are pictures connecting the world to stories that matter. I hope this edition of the Journal will connect you to a theme that can hit anyone of us. Let’s hope the disaster aid provisions then work as intended.

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Disaster management and emerging technologies: a performance-based perspective

Meditari Accountancy Research

ISSN : 2049-372X

Article publication date: 19 August 2021

Issue publication date: 14 July 2022

This paper aims to analyse how emerging technologies (ETs) impact on improving performance in disaster management (DM) processes and, concretely, their impact on the performance according to the different phases of the DM cycle (preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation).

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology is based on a systematic review of the literature. Scopus, ProQuest, EBSCO and Web of Science were used as data sources, and an initial sample of 373 scientific articles was collected. After abstracts and full texts were read and refinements to the search were made, a final corpus of 69 publications was analysed using VOSviewer software for text mining and cluster visualisation.

The results highlight how ETs foster the preparedness and resilience of specific systems when dealing with different phases of the DM cycle. Simulation and disaster risk reduction are the fields of major relevance in the application of ETs to DM.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the literature by adding the lenses of performance measurement, management and accountability in analysing the impact of ETs on DM. It thus represents a starting point for scholars to develop future research on a rapidly and continuously developing topic.

• Emerging technologies
• Disaster management
• Performance
• Systematic literature review
• Emergency response

Vermiglio, C. , Noto, G. , Rodríguez Bolívar, M.P. and Zarone, V. (2022), "Disaster management and emerging technologies: a performance-based perspective", Meditari Accountancy Research , Vol. 30 No. 4, pp. 1093-1117. https://doi.org/10.1108/MEDAR-02-2021-1206

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2021, Carlo Vermiglio, Guido Noto, Manuel Pedro Rodríguez Bolívar and Vincenzo Zarone.

Published by Emerald Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this license may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode

1. Introduction

Despite the rising number of catastrophic events occurring in recent years, disaster management (DM) has received little attention from the interdisciplinary accounting community ( Lai et al. , 2014 ; Sargiacomo et al. , 2014 ; Walker, 2014 ; Sciulli, 2018 ; Perkiss and Moerman, 2020 ; Sargiacomo and Walker, 2020 ).

A key aspect of DM theory and practices is related to the information systems used to support decision-making and to measure, manage and report the performance of the whole DM cycle (see, amongst others, Carreño et al. , 2007 ). Information systems have widely supported disaster practitioners in recent decades, providing an increasing volume of data gathered through emerging technologies (ETs), such as big data, Internet of Things (IoT) ( Yang et al. , 2013 ; Shah et al. , 2019 ), machine learning, artificial intelligence (AI), remote sensing, cloud computing, social media communication ( Alexander, 2014 ) and blockchain.

ETs are science-based innovations which provide great transformative potential for an industry, in an “early phase of development” ( Boon and Moors, 2008 ) and can lead to “radical innovations” ( Day and Schoemaker, 2000 ) and/or allow an evolutionary process of technical, institutional and social change; however, they bring risks of uncertainty in terms of network effects, costs and social and ethical concerns ( Halaweh, 2013 ).

All these technologies are spreading their value in a growing variety of domains, effectively contributing to the planning, decision-making, accounting and auditing process of public and private organisations ( Ndou et al. , 2018 ; Bonsón and Bednárová, 2019 ; Lamboglia et al. , 2020 ; Lombardi and Secundo, 2020 ; Rodríguez-Bolívar et al. , 2021 ; Tingey-Holyoak et al. , 2021 ; De Santis and D’Onza, 2021 ; Lombardi et al. , 2021 ).

Indeed, the implementation of digital technologies are becoming increasingly relevant for corporate and performance management ( Oliver, 2018 ; Marrone and Hazelton, 2019 ; Wang et al. , 2020a , 2020b ; Chatterjee et al. , 2021 ; Jun et al. , 2021 ), and especially ETs have demonstrated in the last years to be particularly supportive in fostering these issues in health care ( Spanò and Ginesti, 2021 ), transportation ( Chhabra et al. , 2021 ), manufacturing ( Rezaei et al. , 2017 ) and so on.

With specific regards to DM, extant studies have mainly focused on how technology could support data gathering and visualisation ( Fajardo and Oppus, 2010 ) as well as knowledge management ( Inan et al. , 2018 ; Raman et al. , 2018 ; Oktari et al. , 2020 ). Conversely, literature reviews have focused on how specific technologies influence DM ( Kankanamge et al. , 2019 ), how they support supply chain management ( Ivanov et al ., 2019 ) or how they can be applied to deal with risks in small- and medium-sized enterprises ( Verbano and Venturini, 2013 ).

To date, various streams of research across different disciplines, such as information science, computer science and engineering, have focused on the impact of ETs on disaster and emergency response.

However, to the authors’ knowledge, limited attention has been devoted to understanding how ETs could support performance measurement, management and accountability in the specific setting of DM processes. To fill this gap, this study develops a systematic literature review (SLR) analysing how ETs impact on improving performance in DM, altering and changing DM processes to enhance resilience according to the different phases of the DM cycle (preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation). We used Scopus, ISI Web of Science, ProQuest and EBSCO as the data sources. We selected academic journal articles within the business, management and accounting categories.

The paper is structured as follows. Section 2 presents a theoretical background that links literature on DM, ETs and performance. Section 3 explains the methodology and clarifies the research question, and Section 4 presents the results of the SLR. Finally, the discussion and conclusions are presented.

2. Theoretical background

2.1 an overview of disaster management.

The frequency and magnitude with which natural disasters (earthquakes, floods, landslides, droughts, storms, etc.) have occurred in recent decades are alarming. According to EM-DAT [ 1 ], over the last 20 years, disasters have claimed approximately 1.23 million lives and affected a total of over 4 billion people, leading to US$2.97tn in economic losses worldwide. During the same timeframe, a total of 7,348 disasters related to natural hazards have occurred worldwide.

The concept of disasters is extremely complex and multidimensional in nature; it can be discussed by drawing on several connected fields of research ( Quarantelli, 1998 ).

According to the definition proposed by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, a disaster is:

[…] a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society at any scale due to hazardous events interacting with conditions of exposure, vulnerability and capacity, leading to one or more of the following: human, material, economic and environmental losses and impacts [ 2 ].

DM refers to the organisation, planning and application of measures aimed at preparing for, responding to and recovering from disasters. This topic has been widely discussed in the academic literature in recent decades through different perspectives ( Faulkner, 2001 ; Pearce, 2003 ; Lettieri et al. , 2009 ) and, most recently, with a specific focus on how firms ( Kraus et al. , 2020 ; Ferrigno and Cucino, 2021 ) and public institutions ( Steen and Brandsen, 2020 ) have reacted to the COVID-19 pandemic. Social scientists frame disasters from three different perspectives: the hazard , the vulnerability and the holistic view ( Berg and De Majo, 2017 ).

Under the hazard paradigm, disasters are considered extreme physical events with accidental causes and no human or cultural influence on their origin and scope; therefore, DM is mainly focused on post-disaster short-term measures, such as recovery, relief and humanitarian aid for those who need help ( Alexander, 1997 ).

This traditional view has been replaced by the vulnerability paradigm, rooted in development studies, in which disasters are considered the results of natural causes related to the vulnerability of the surrounding social, economic and political environment ( Cutter, 1996 ; McEntire, 2005 ; Buckle, 2005 ; Adger, 2006 ). Natural disasters, rather than being only uncontrollable events, greatly depend on some structural constraints of the population hit by catastrophic events ( Wisner et al. , 2004 ).

Assuming this renewed approach, Gilbert (1998) stated that a “disaster is no longer experienced as a reaction; it can be seen as an action, a result, and more precisely, a social consequence.” This broader perspective sheds light on how human activity, social order and development paths characterise the breadth and severity of natural disasters over time. According to Perry (1998) , “vulnerability is socially produced,” but it “may be also related to the state of technology,” as information systems and ETs play a supportive role and have a key relevance within the various phases of DM ( Von Lubitz et al. , 2008 ).

The increase in the occurrence of natural disasters sheds light on the inadequacy of traditional DM processes and practices around the globe. To tackle the wickedness ( Rittel and Webber, 1973 ; Head and Alford, 2015 ; Pesch and Vermaas, 2020 ) of such problems and reduce their intrinsic complexity, scholars have highlighted the importance of collaborative networks amongst public institutions ( Waugh and Streib, 2006 ; Ansell et al. , 2010 ; Comfort et al. , 2012 ; Kapucu and Garayev, 2016 ), coordination mechanisms to respond and react to the emergence of problems ( Moynihan, 2008 ; Boin et al. , 2013 ; Kuipers et al. , 2015 ), competencies and leadership behaviours ( Rosenthal and Kouzmin, 1997 ; Van Wart and Kapucu, 2011 ) and capacity building and community awareness ( Kitagawa, 2021 ). All these aspects are important in disaster and emergency situations characterised by complexity, urgency and uncertainty ( Kapucu and Van Wart, 2008 ).

The multiple threats posed by disasters suggest the adoption of a holistic view of DM with a more strategic focus on the actions and tools targeted to reduce exposure and vulnerability to disasters ( Berg and De Majo, 2017 ). The holistic view marks a paradigm shift from responsive to proactive management of natural hazards based on the principles of resilience and disaster risk reduction ( Manyena, 2006 ; Demiroz and Haase, 2019 ). The key phases of the DM cycle can be summarised in Figure 1 .

DM requires and generates a huge amount of data coming from different sources, which must be reliable, accurate and real time. Through these data, DM practitioners can gather information on the features, locations and prospective impacts of threats, providing essential inputs for managing all the phases of the disaster cycle in a timely and effective way ( Yu et al. , 2019 ). ETs have, to date, offered opportunities to improve the management of several fields. Table 1 shows the main applications discussed in the academic literature.

These technologies are considered to have a high impact on each of the phases displayed in Table 2 , although all of them are valuable for the whole DM cycle.

2.2 Performance in the disaster management context

Performance is one of the most explored topics by business and public administration scholars in the last half century. It is a broad concept discussed by different streams of literature, which range from the measurement of performance to management accounting and control, behavioural economics and so on ( Moynihan, 2008 ; Ferreira and Otley, 2009 ; Bititci et al. , 2012 ).

The literature usually focuses on performance by adopting three lenses that are strongly connected: performance measurement ( Bititci et al. , 2012 ), performance management ( Ferreira and Otley, 2009 ) and accountability ( Roberts, 1991 ; Gray, 1992 ).

Performance measurement is the activity of collecting data, defining indicators and computing such indicators to evaluate the ability of a certain entity to achieve strategic goals ( Eccles, 1991 ; Hudson et al ., 2001 ).

If performance measurement is concerned with what and how to measure, performance management is instead focused on the utilisation of such information in decision-making processes ( Ferreira and Otley, 2009 ; Bititci et al. , 2012 ). In this sense, performance management could be defined as the process of creating the context for performance ( Lebas, 1995 ). Performance management comprehends the whole process starting from the definition of performance, the identification of related targets and the evaluation ex-post of the results obtained ( Lebas, 1995 ; Ferreira and Otley, 2009 ).

Lastly, performance accountability is a broad concept which covers activities such as reporting performance, communicating the results achieved to stakeholders and the broader community and guaranteeing transparency ( Roberts, 1991 ; Gray, 1992 ). It is a concept which has been widely explored in the literature on both public and private sector organisations ( Kassel, 2008 ; Kaur and Lodhia, 2019 ).

Because of increasingly complex changes in society and the environment, performance studies have rapidly evolved in recent decades. Whilst the first management scholars mainly focused on financial performance, today, the literature agrees that researchers should focus on different performance dimensions, such as social, competitive and environmental ( Kaplan and Norton, 1996 ; Bititci et al. , 2012 ; Khalid et al. , 2019 ). Moreover, the evolution of the discipline has made scholars shift their focus to the inter-organisational level, as in the case of supply chains, strategic alliances or governance networks ( Dekker, 2016 ; Nuti et al. , 2018 ; Dell’ Era et al. , 2020 ; Ferrigno et al. , 2021 ).

DM is amongst the fields of application of management which, more than others, present degrees of social complexity derived from a large set of stakeholders, multiple objectives and goals and the difficulty of measuring many of these because of the high uncertainty given by the unprecedented scenarios characterising every disaster ( Comfort et al. , 2004 ).

The introduction and adoption of ETs are of great support to researchers and practitioners as they cope with the complexities of measuring, managing and reporting performance. According to many authors, information and digital technologies are indeed pivotal to the design and implementation of performance management and accountability systems ( Marr and Neely, 2001 ; Nudurupati and Bititci, 2005 ; Rodríguez-Bolívar et al. , 2006 ; Buys, 2008 ; Marrone and Hazelton, 2019 ; Lombardi and Secundo, 2020 ).

New technologies may support performance in multiple ways. First, they assist in the measurement of performance ( Nudurupati and Bititci, 2005 ; Cockcroft and Russell, 2018 ). Some technologies, such as big data or AI, allow managers to both have access to new sources of information and improve their ability to manage and analyse related data ( Sardi et al. , 2020 ). This may enable the creation of new measures and performance targets. As such, in the case of DM, decision-makers may have access to new forms of information coming from social networks, satellites or sensors.

The second pivotal contribution of ETs is related to the real-time availability of new information, which improves performance management processes ( Marr and Neely, 2001 ; Nudurupati and Bititci, 2005 ). This is of particular interest in the response phase of DM. Having the possibility to promptly react based on real-time reliable information can make a difference in emergency contexts ( Laituri and Kodrich, 2008 ; Ragini et al. , 2018 ; Imran et al. , 2020 ).

Third, ETs as applied to performance have shown great potential for understanding concerns related to reporting and internal and external accountability ( Marrone and Hazelton, 2019 ; Lombardi and Secundo, 2020 ). For example, new forms of data visualisation are being largely used to inform the community about the results achieved by the institutions in charge. What is peculiar in performance accountability in DM is its double directions, i.e. downward in an accountability to the other , in which the focus is on the intrinsic value of the suffering community, and upward in an accounting for itself , in which the focus is on market value ( Sargiacomo et al. , 2014 ).

In light of this theoretical premise, this paper aims at covering a potential gap in understanding how ETs impact on improving performance in DM processes and, concretely, their impact on the performance according to the different phases of the DM cycle (preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation).

3. Data collection and methods

To achieve the research aim, this study conducts an SLR to identify the impact of ETs on performance measurement, management and accountability ( Kraus et al. , 2020 ; Snyder, 2019 ). This methodology has already been applied both in relation to the applications of ETs (i.e. Martinez-Rojas et al. , 2018 ) and to DM (i.e. Lettieri et al. , 2009 ; Akter and Fosso Wamba, 2019 ).

An SLR is a systematic process aimed at defining the research question, identifying relevant studies and evaluating their features, quality and impact on the field. The last phase of an SLR summarises the findings qualitatively and/or quantitatively, reporting evidence to clarify what is and is not known with respect to the object of investigation ( Denyer and Tranfield, 2009 ).

definition of the research questions;

development of the research protocol;

identification of documents for analysis;

development of a coding framework; and

execution of in-depth analyses.

The first phase consisted of defining the research question of the study, which focuses on understanding how ETs contribute to improving DM processes. Consistent with the theme of the special issue, the research question is also explored from the perspective of the emerging issues related to the dimensions of performance and, more specifically, the impact of ETs in terms of management, measurement and accountability within the DM cycle.

In the second phase of the SLR, we define the research protocol to support evidence-based practices and ensure objectivity ( Tranfield et al. , 2003 ). In this phase, the focus of the study, the research strategy, the data sources and the inclusion/exclusion criteria used for the review are specified in accordance with the research question ( Petticrew and Roberts, 2008 ). The background of this study has been created by adopting a wide perspective of analysis, selecting the most relevant articles in the business, management and accounting fields. Later on, we opted for a longitudinal study to collect literature from different scientific databases.

The third phase aims to identify the papers to be added to the literature review, defining the research string to use. We managed to collect research articles via title–abstract–keyword field codes using Boolean operators (AND, OR) as connectors.

Following the parameters, the search strategy was applied in the business, management and accounting areas, referring to the Scopus and JCR lists. A description is reported in Table 2 .

The search query was entered in the ISI Web of Knowledge, Scopus, EBSCO Host and ABI/INFORM (ProQuest) databases, and it allowed us to obtain a total of 101, 172, 184 and 280 articles, respectively, for a total of 737 articles. We first eliminated redundant and non-English articles ( Petticrew and Roberts, 2008 ), which were few and not very significant with respect to the research question. We also restricted the collection to scientific articles only ( Zheng et al. , 2020 ; Lombardi and Secundo, 2020 ) because during the review process, these papers were tested with high-quality standards; the purpose was to ensure the quality of knowledge they provided ( Light and Pillemer, 1984 ).

The timeframe covered the period from 2000 to February 2021. Although few studies have devoted their attention to the potential capabilities and limitations of digital technologies in DM at the end of the last century (amongst others, Wallace and De Balogh, 1985 ; Waugh, 1995 ; Stephenson and Anderson, 1997 ; Barth and Arnold, 1999 ; Chengalur-Smith et al. , 1999 ), the choice of the period was made in light of the growing interest in ETs and their impact in society and the public sector starting from the early 2000s, as confirmed by the academic literature ( Day and Schoemaker, 2000 ; Rotolo et al. , 2015 ).

From a careful reading of the abstracts, we eliminated papers of a specific technical nature, in which the connection between ETs and DM was only mentioned but not developed. Double counting of papers was avoided by including only those that were different across the databases. These processes allowed us to obtain a valid sample of 127 articles. We checked through the full-text articles to further evaluate the quality and eligibility of the studies ( Xiao and Watson, 2019 ). Carrying out a thorough reading of the papers, we selected those relevant to our research question, obtaining a final corpus of 69 papers ( Figure 2 ).

Then, we defined the coding framework, selecting the following parameters: time of publication, distribution of papers amongst journals, author citations and keyword co-occurrence. In this phase, a double analysis was carried out on the final sample: descriptive analysis and clustering. The descriptive analysis aimed to highlight the main characteristics of the articles, indicating their number, evolution over time and distribution amongst journals.

Data analysis was conducted using VOSviewer software ( Van Eck and Waltman, 2017 ). As in other descriptive bibliometric analyses ( Secundo et al. , 2020 ), we analysed keyword co-occurrence and document citations; then, we performed a cluster analysis to capture the focal points and connections between the main topics considered in our study.

We developed the co-occurrence analysis by selecting keywords as a single entity for analysis, as a meaningful description of an article’s content ( Lamboglia et al. , 2020 ) and as an endpoint to add a paper with a minimum number of two occurrences of a keyword. Using this technique, we obtained a twofold visualisation – network and overlay.

The last phase of the SLR aims to carry out a critical and comprehensive analysis of the selected articles. Finally, we clustered the results using VOSviewer. The main findings derived from the SLR are reported in Section 4.

4. Findings

4.1 characteristics of sample selection.

As shown in Figure 3 , the number of articles that investigate the relationship between ETs and DM in accordance with our research question was narrowed until 2016, with an average of three articles per year. The 2018–2020 period seems to be the most prolific, covering almost 65% of the total, with 2019 marking the highest number of publications per year (21).

The descriptive analysis indicates the source titles in which the topic of our research has been mainly discussed. The following table lists the journals with the highest number of published articles concerning the subject of our research question ( Table 3 ).

Source citation indicates that the Journal of Cleaner Production is the source with the highest number of citations for a single article included in the sample ( Papadopoulos et al. , 2017 ), followed by Annals of Operation Research (185), International Journal of Production Economics (138) and Technological Forecasting and Social Change (129).

For article citation counting, we used the Scopus Field-Weighted Citation Impact to compare each paper citation with the average number of citations received by all similar documents over a three-year window. This choice was assumed with the aim of maximising the relevance of our sample, refusing the adoption of an arbitrary cut-off point for citation counting ( Keupp et al. , 2012 ). This way, newer articles were not at a disadvantage compared with older ones. Table 4 lists the top 15 articles with the highest citations within the selected timeframe.

An analysis of documents by country shows that the USA has the highest number of both papers (20) and citations (785), followed by India (14 papers and 379 citations), the UK (13 papers and 632 citations) and France (9 papers and 452 citations). The table also shows the number of citations by source.

4.2 Networking and clustering analysis

Then, we used the VOSviewer algorithm ( Van Eck and Waltman , 2014, 2017 ) to perform the cluster analysis starting from the co-occurrence analysis, which expresses the relatedness of items based on the number of documents in which they occur together. As explained before, our unit of analysis is author keywords, with a threshold of two keywords. We obtained a total of 37 keywords, which fell into four different clusters ( Table 5 and Figure 4 ).

Our analysis includes the overlay visualisation, which is presented in Figure 5 . Keywords in red colour refer to the more recent topics discussed in the academic debate on ETs in DM.

The following paragraph illustrates the findings of each cluster.

4.2.1 Yellow cluster.

Papers included in the yellow cluster are mainly focused on the support that simulation approaches mainly provide to the preparedness phase of DM and to performance measurement.

In the broad management field, the value of simulation is highly recognised when experimentation in the real world is not feasible because of time, cost or ethical constraints ( Davis et al. , 2007 ; Sterman, 2014 ; Noto and Cosenz, 2021 ). These kinds of situations characterise the contexts in which DM operates. In fact, experimenting with a disaster in the real world is never feasible or acceptable. As such, simulated environments are the only way we can discover how DM works and where high leverage points may lie to foster performance.

Simulation in DM studies has been explored in depth by Mishra et al. (2019) , who conducted a literature review of the key approaches adopted by scholars in the field. These authors focused on system dynamics (SD), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), agent-based modelling (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES).

MCS has been mainly adopted for risk modelling, SD has been proposed as an effective tool for prevention. ABM has shown effectiveness in considering the behaviour of the multiple agents involved in the DM cycle. Less adopted, according to Mishra et al. ’s (2019) study, was the DES, which is mainly used when modelling for large-scale disasters.

Whilst the literature on performance is already combined with simulation ( Bianchi, 2016 ), with a few exceptions ( Wang et al. , 2020a , 2020b ), the resulting frameworks have not been applied to DM studies. However, in the analysed articles, simulation is mainly examined from the performance point of view. For example, Gul et al. (2020) used DES to assess the preparedness of an emergency department during an earthquake by using length of stay and utilisation of medical staff as measures of performance. Sahebjamnia et al. (2017) used coverage, cost and response time as performance measures in a decision support system for managing humanitarian relief chains. Lee and Lee (2021) focused on disaster response performance in a multi-agent environment. Fan et al. (2021) emphasised how ETs, such as AI algorithms and deep learning architectures, significantly contribute to disaster preparedness at the city level where, through the combination of multiple sources of data (geospatial, sensors, social media, crowdsourcing) and the interactions amongst different entities, the inefficiencies induced by their complex relationships can be easily explored. Moreover, the authors pointed out how temporal information recorded in the Disaster City Digital Twin enables monitoring, analysing and predicting the dynamic structures of the networks involved and their potential effects on the efficiency of relief and response actions.

In all the above-mentioned cases, scenario analysis through simulation was used to explore the preparedness and resilience of a specific system when dealing with different phases of the DM cycle by observing how the measures of performance identified may evolve under different environmental conditions.

4.2.2 Red cluster.

Articles which fall into this cluster are mainly focused on the response phase of DM and provide interesting implications for what concern performance management. In light of our findings, the ETs which mostly support these phases are geospatial data (GIS), volunteered geographic information (VGI), IoT and robotics and automation (RA), such as drones and chatbots. Some scholars clearly described the complementary role of GIS and VGI in the provision of information, which can be helpful in coordinating response tasks amongst volunteer groups and official disaster agencies ( Hung et al. , 2016 ; Contreras et al. , 2016 ; Schumann, 2018 ; Akter and Fosso Wamba, 2019 ; Sharma et al. , 2020 ). Other studies have shown the main challenges (digital divide, lack of resources, poor data quality) associated with their use in emergency response contexts ( Haworth, 2016 ).

RA are effective tools for relief and response operations. To date, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which are a subcategory of RA, have been used in response to a wide range of disasters that have occurred in the last decade ( Chowdhury et al. , 2017 ; Kim et al. , 2018 ), providing valuable support in searching the victims, mapping the affected zones, making structural inspections, estimating debris and assessing damage.

More recently, UAVs have become of key relevance in supplying emergency commodities in disaster-affected regions. In this regard, some scholars ( Bravo et al. , 2019 ; Zwęgliński, 2020 ) stressed the impact of RA technologies in minimising the time and costs of disaster relief operations.

A further ET used in both the response and recovery phases of DM is IoT ( Shahat et al. , 2020 ), which enables accurate and real-time accountability of resources and personnel allocated to emergency response operations.

Sinha et al. (2019) showed the role of IoT-based solutions in catering to the task requirements of the personnel involved in DM, specifically rescue operations. A critical aspect here is improper resource allocation, which slows down recovery efforts.

Performance measurement seems the main concern of the articles which fall into the red cluster. KPIs are mainly used to calculate the extent to which ETs might reduce time, distance covered, number of lives saved and relief provided. To some extent, ETs enhance the level of accountability of response operations, coping with the lack of visibility of resources available on the disaster scene or dispatched to other places prior to the event ( Yang et al. , 2013 ).

4.2.3 Blue cluster.

This cluster introduced an interesting topic concerning the contribution of data mining, machine learning and social media to performance measurement, management and accountability during disaster events. Data mining and machine learning algorithms are widely recognised tools to support decision making in many areas and, more specifically, along the DM cycle ( Zagorecki et al. , 2013 ).

Machine learning is an umbrella term which sometimes overlaps with other concepts and applications, i.e. deep learning and AI. In any case, our findings show the high relatedness of this ET to the whole DM cycle, specifically to the emergency response phase ( Chaudhuri and Bose, 2020 ).

The key role of social media in DM has been widely recognised in the literature ( Xiao et al. , 2015 ). User generated content (UGC) from disaster-affected areas provides valuable information for emergency response when dealing with DM, as stated by Han et al. (2019) . Nevertheless, this study points out the nature of UGC, which is huge, disordered and continuous. As a consequence, its exploitation has a direct impact on the effectiveness of response actions during disaster events.

On the one hand, the huge amount of data generated by social media – Twitter, Facebook, TikTok and other platforms – provides a big picture of the ongoing disaster situation in terms of location, temporal sequence and entity-related information ( Hoang and Mothe, 2018 ; Singh et al. , 2019 ). On the other hand, the effective use of these tools raises critical issues in terms of text classification, data selection and validation, which are relevant when dealing with unpredictable and catastrophic events. More recently, sentiment analysis, topic modelling and other natural language processing tools have become promising techniques for assessing the reliability and accuracy of data gathered from social media during disasters ( Thekdi and Chatterjee, 2019 ; Karami et al. , 2020 ). These ETs enable situational awareness in disaster response ( Li et al. , 2018 ), especially through the analysis of crowdsourced data provided by the eyewitnesses of disaster events ( Zahra et al. , 2020 ). From a performance-based view, it can be argued that the aforementioned ETs mainly support performance measurement through the real-time data gathered from social media. This result is coherent with our theoretical background. Moreover, social media are largely used by local and national authorities, as they show great potential for improving efficiency and widening the audience of information systems during disasters and for enhancing relations (e.g. improved transparency and accountability) between governments and the community affected by the event ( Wehn and Evers, 2015 ).

4.2.4 Green cluster.

The last cluster obtained from our bibliometric analysis consists of papers which focus on the post-disaster phase (i.e. recovery and mitigation), namely, the humanitarian relief and the related humanitarian supply chain (HSC) logistics. In this regard, the ETs linked with this phase mainly impact on performance management and accountability.

As is well known, humanitarian logistics refers to the mobilisation and management of resources (human and material) through which support for post-disaster response and rehabilitation operations is provided.

HSC management is crucial for the efficiency and effectiveness of DM systems. As observed by Rodríguez-Espíndola et al. (2020) , the “duplication of efforts for data input, multiple formats, lack of control of budgets, absence of accountability, lack of integrity in procurement procedures, absence of a central database, and manual reporting and tracking” affect current DM systems.

The adoption of ETs, such as big data and predictive analytics (BDPA), provides valuable support to overcome the limitations in disaster relief operations. Indeed, scholars agree on the contribution that BDPA can offer when dealing with disasters ( Ragini et al. , 2018 ). Akter and Fosso Wamba (2019) highlighted how BDPA can help address various challenges by providing critical recovery services in disasters. Considering the main properties of BD, such as volume (referring to the amount of data), velocity (referring to the frequency or speed by which data are generated and delivered), veracity (referring to data quality) and value (referring to the benefits from the analysis and use of big data), many authors have underlined how these help improve the visibility, coordination and sustainability of the HSC after a disaster ( Papadopoulos et al. , 2017 ; Dubey et al. , 2018 ; Dubey et al. , 2019 ; Jeble et al. , 2019 ).

The subset of articles which fall into the green cluster gives relevance to some aspects related to both performance management and measurement. Abidi et al. (2014) analysed the state of the art of performance measurement, management and accountability in HSC. They pointed out some factors that determine reluctance to implement performance measurement in the humanitarian sector, such as a short-term perspective of disaster response actions, limited IT capacity and infrastructure and a chaotic environment.

Other scholars have underlined how ETs have enabled officials and non-government organisations involved in disaster relief and rehabilitation operations to reduce information asymmetry ( Dubey et al. , 2018 ) and address the lack of trust amongst agents, volunteers and the affected community using blockchain technology ( Dubey et al. , 2020 ); this has a critical role in enhancing collaboration and quickly building trust amongst various actors engaged in disaster relief operations.

5. Discussion and conclusions

This paper has sought to analyse how ETs impact on improving performance in DM processes, using a SLR as methodology of research and visualizing this impact with the VOSviewer software. The selected articles included in this review use different methodologies and focus on different phases of disasters, technologies and performance perspectives.

In many cases, we observed an inconsistent use of terms. This mainly happens in relation to the DM cycle. As mentioned in the theoretical background, DM can be framed into four phases: mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery. Many of the studies analysed, although focusing on specific phases, broadly refer to DM. This lack of specification poses challenges in the analysis and identification of the relationships between ETs and the DM phases. In some cases, DM is even used as a synonym for emergency management, resulting in a lack of clarity and confusion in the discipline. It is evident that ETs largely contribute to the management of disasters in each phase.

The complexity of DM often makes researchers and practitioners combine different technologies to improve the performance measurement, management and accountability of related activities. Although ETs may all be applied and successfully contribute to the different phases of the DM cycle, our analysis highlights some stronger linkages between some technologies, or features, and specific DM phases.

Many of the technologies considered rely on simulation features, which can be considered as a transversal tool supporting decision-makers at different levels in assessing the preparedness and resilience of a certain system prior to the occurrence of a natural disaster. Simulation enables experimentation with the consequences of a potential disaster in a virtual environment. This experimentation allows us to embrace the disaster risk reduction logic required to effectively tackle natural disasters. As such, simulation could be a valuable tool to improve preparedness. A simulated environment may foster the comprehension of the complex relationships characterizing disasters ex ante; thus, it may support the definition of consistent performance measures applicable to the preparedness phase.

Robotics and IoT are often associated with the improvement of operations in the response phase. ETs, such as drones or sensors, allow people to run activities that are not accessible to humans during disasters. These are valuable tools to monitor and manage performance during the response phases of the DM cycle.

Social media and related analytics tools have been widely used in two ways. On the one hand, they allow decision-makers to have access to a wider range of data sources (e.g. citizens, service users and other people involved in disasters) and to analyse this information through algorithms, such as topic modelling or sentiment analysis; this contribution is thus highly related to performance measurement. On the other hand, such tools foster performance accountability and disclosure towards the community.

In the following table, we highlighted the links between the performance perspectives here considered (measurement, management and accountability) and the main ETs identified by our review of the literature on DM ( Table 6 ).

As emerges from the table above, all these ETs are key to the decision support systems in every DM phase as also emerged from the reviewed papers. However, it is evident that the ability to process the data obtained and to verify their reliability and quality requires much effort. This aspect is probably linked to the lack of performance-related aspects in many of the papers analysed here. In fact, although many of the papers in our sample focus on performance, few of them embrace a theoretical framework based on performance measurement, management or accountability.

In this paper, we attempted to frame existing literature on DM and ETs according to a performance-based perspective to orient future studies and to highlight how and which ET contributes to the different phases of DM cycle.

As a result of this literature review, it emerges that prior research has put emphasis on the usefulness of ETs for preventing and managing disasters as well as to provide channels for reducing the harmful consequences of these disasters. Our systematization of previous literature results may have important implications both for theory and practice. At the theoretical level, the paper provides a framework that links the key performance perspectives and DM phases with the implementation of ETs in the DM field; such a framework may represent a useful reference for studies aimed at deepening related aspect. Moreover, the study highlights that simulation and simulation-based tools allow scholars to explore and test the development of new theories and solutions to analyse performance in DM contexts ( Davis et al. , 2007 ; Mishra et al. , 2019 ). At the practical level, the research suggests to the key involved actors (i.e. public administration, emergency managers, civil protection, experts and other stakeholders) to improve DM performance: analysing the importance of simulation tools to assess their preparedness; examining the ETs successfully used in the different DM phases (thus showing them how to invest in technologies); studying the importance to promote and enable citizens involvement as a new powerful source of data; and examining the need to invest in technologies to improve the ability to process, understand and use for decision-making purposes such data.

Despite its contributions, such as shedding light on the current state of the literature and providing future research directions about the theme addressed, this paper also has some limitations. Although frequently used in SLR, the criteria used to select our source of information – i.e. the exclusive focus on business, management and accounting categories; the exclusive focus on scientific articles in English language – may have excluded some valuable contributions. Future research could thus compare our results with other sources of information such as books and grey literature. Moreover, consistently with prior research, we have mainly analysed the implementation of ETs as “isolated islands.” Nonetheless, future research could analyse integration processes of these ETs for managing all disasters in an efficient manner.

Finally, the study did not consider the question of technological acceptance by the users of the technologies. Verifying whether specific technologies or certain phases of the DM cycle are associated with greater reluctance on users’ side could be interesting.

Disaster risk management cycle. Our elaboration

Selection, screening, eligibility and inclusion process of articles

Documents per year

Network visualization

Overlay visualization

Suitable emerging technologies in the DM field

Search criteria

Top ten journals publishing papers regarding DM

Citation counting. Top 15 cited documents

VOSviewer cluster description

Linking PM and ETs in DM cycle

Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters – CRED. School of Public Health Université Catholique de Louvain.

http://www.undrr.org/terminology/disaster#:∼:text=A%20serious%20disruption%20of%20the,and%20environmental%20losses%20and%20impacts . Accessed on 1 February 2021.

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Choi , T.M. , Wallace , S.W. and Wang , Y. ( 2018 ), “ Big data analytics in operations management ”, Production and Operations Management , Vol. 27 No. 10 , pp. 1868 - 1883 .

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Venkatesh , V. and Bala , H. ( 2008 ), “ Technology acceptance model 3 and a research agenda on interventions ”, Decision Sciences , Vol. 39 No. 2 , pp. 273 - 315 .

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Striving towards an effective emergency preparedness and disaster management response: Lessons learned and future directions

Adel elkbuli.

a Department of Surgery, Division of Trauma and Surgical Critical Care, Kendall Regional Medical Center, Miami, FL, USA

Maria Herrera

Muhammed awan, carol elassad.

b School of Healthcare Management, Colorado Technical University, Colorado Springs, CO, USA

Emergency preparedness and disaster management (EPDM) were brought to the forefront with the COVID-19 pandemic. The five major phases of EPDM are 1) preparedness, 2) mitigation/prevention, 3) response, 4) recovery, and 5) resilience [ 1 , 2 ]. Preparedness comprises multi-step collaboration to optimize intelligence sharing [ 3 , 4 ]. Next is mitigation, the process of addressing the ongoing situation and its risks through the allocation of resources [ 2 ]. The response phase requires efficient mobilization of needed resources, timely actions to contain the situation and limit its spread and effects, and utilizing effective communication [ 2 ]. Afterward, recovery processes (immediate, short-term, and long-term) require repairing the infrastructure, re-employment, making resources available, economic support, mental health support, and ongoing research [ 2 , 5 ]. Lastly, the resilience phase includes rebuilding communities at both the personal and structural levels [ 6 ].

Successful EPDM depends heavily on the level of planning, education and training, and research done in anticipation of disasters and emergencies [ 7 ]. However, over the past few decades the United States (US) has spent less than 3% of its health expenditures on public health prevention programs, mostly through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the Prevention and Public Health Fund (PPHF) [ 8 ]. From 2010 to 2020, the CDC funding for prevention and emergency preparedness programs had an almost $3 billion reduction [ 8 ]. The lack of adequate preparedness was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, personal protective equipment PPE) and testing supplies were in shortage [ 9 ]. Despite attempts to rectify these missteps, there have been 506,834 deaths as of February 26, 2021 [ [9] , [10] , [11] , [12] , [13] ]. The PPE shortage especially impacted nursing home residents, who represent over 50% of the US pandemic fatalities [ 14 , 15 ].

To save lives and reduce the burden on our healthcare system, strategies implemented include targeted testing, non-pharmaceutical interventions (hand washing/social distancing), optimization and augmentation of existing resources, implementation of crisis standards of care, and reduction of demand for healthcare services through medical countermeasures like mass vaccination [ 1 , 16 , 17 ]. Of particular importance in these efforts is the ongoing surveillance and contact tracing with targeted distribution of tests for viral transmission suppression and efficient reallocation of appropriate resources [ [18] , [19] , [20] , [21] ]. These efforts are crucial as the US attempts to return to normalcy and already overwhelmed resources (medications, blood products, ventilators, etc.) could worsen as the incidence of trauma injuries return to baseline and elective operations increase [ 22 , 23 ]. These deficiencies and burdens on the healthcare system will severely impact vulnerable populations (low socioeconomic status, minorities, elderly) and those with comorbidities, warranting strategies that will efficiently protect these populations [ [24] , [25] , [26] , [27] ].

Leadership in crises such as pandemics is an ongoing re-evaluation process as more knowledge and information becomes available. Until the science is clear, healthcare leaders and policymakers should take proactive measures and then refine policy as more data becomes available. For example, during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was controversy surrounding the effectiveness of facemasks to prevent infections and through scientific inquiries, facemasks proved to be an effective tool [ 28 ]. Once this information became available, many leaders showed humility and did not hesitate to change their position and advocate for facemasks based on scientific evidence. However, with daily fluctuations in circumstances and knowledge during crisis management and preparedness, outcomes cannot be guaranteed, especially under uncommon situations. Many examples of this can be seen throughout the COVID-19 pandemic as healthcare facilities struggled with hospital bed capacity due to insufficiencies to effectively prevent or treat the disease [ 29 , 30 ] through effective protocols and management guidelines [ 29 , 31 ]. Leadership should ensure the resilience of their team. The lack of proactive measures in healthcare operations and leadership affected its preparedness to lead their team and keep them resilient. The nursing workforce reported significant psychological distress including post-traumatic stress and burnout [ 32 ]. It is an analytical, ethical, diverse leadership with reliable and high-quality information streams that can effectively utilize EPDM plans to decrease the impact of public health disasters both in the health sector and beyond [ [3] , [4] , [5] ].

As seen with COVID-19, the impacts of emergencies/disasters may be severe with effects ranging from unemployment, property and infrastructure damages, business closures, healthcare facility closures or reduced services, and decreased gross domestic product [ [33] , [34] , [35] , [36] , [37] ]. Public health emergencies such as pandemics are a threat to human livelihood thus requiring the creation of a national pandemic strategy, expansion of budgets for hospitals and research both in times of crises and as part of EPDM. The preparation to tackle a disaster occurs before the disaster strikes [ 3 , 4 , 9 ]. This preparation is key to developing comprehensive action plans for damage control and developing credible responses. This expedites a healthy cost-effective recovery process and builds resilience in communities [ 3 , 4 ]. EPDM relies on advanced, resilient, well-equipped, and accessible healthcare systems [ 38 ]. Appropriate EPDM program budgets and multisystem/multidisciplinary collaboration on the national and international level can help mitigate the severe impacts and loss of life that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent it from reoccurring.

Author contribution

Study design and conception: AE.

Data collection and interpretation: AE, MH, MA, CE.

Manuscript preparation and critical revisions: AE, MH, MA, CE.

All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Declaration of Competing Interest

Authors disclose no competing interest.

Title: On interval covering salesman problem

Authors : Siba Prasada Tripathy; Amit Tulshyan; Samarjit Kar; Tandra Pal

Addresses : Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Institute of Technology Durgapur, West Bengal, India ' Department of Information Technology National Institute of Technology Durgapur, West Bengal, India ' Department of Mathematics, National Institute of Technology Durgapur, West Bengal, India ' Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Institute of Technology Durgapur, West Bengal, India

Abstract : After a disaster, during humanitarian relief transportation or mass fatality management, cost of journey between two places may be uncertain due to the variation of degree of devastation in the affected area. In such scenarios, a viable model is essential to handle the situation in cost-effective and reliable manner which is able to handle this uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce interval covering salesman problem (ICSP), where cost of an edge is represented by interval number. ICSP is a variant of covering salesman problem (CSP) which is helpful for many real-world problems in uncertain environment. Here, we formulate a mathematical model for ICSP with uncertain cost associated with the cost of travel between two nodes/places. We have proposed a metameric genetic algorithm (MGA) for ICSP and presented its simulation results. For implementation, we have used some benchmark TSP instances by changing the costs to interval numbers.

Keywords : travelling salesman problem; covering salesman problem; uncertainty; interval numbers; metameric genetic algorithm; MGA; global parent.

DOI : 10.1504/IJAIP.2024.138569

International Journal of Advanced Intelligence Paradigms, 2024 Vol.27 No.3/4, pp.266 - 282

Received: 04 May 2018 Accepted: 03 Jun 2018 Published online: 13 May 2024 *

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Innovating Urban Mosquito Control: Introducing Human-Controlled Breeding Sites as a Component of Integrated Mosquito Management (IMM)

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This study introduces a novel method for mosquito control tailored specifically for urban and suburban areas, addressing their unique challenges. The concept of Human-Controlled Breeding Sites (HCBS) is presented as an innovative approach to reducing mosquito populations by providing controlled oviposition sites within households. The paper is structured into three main components. The first details the meticulous development of the HCBS method, the second explores the intricate development of the HCBS device, crucial for effective implementation of the HCBS approach. Finally, the experiment validating the HCBS methodology is described, offering insights into its practical application and efficacy in mosquito population control. Our proposal emphasizes the importance of considering mosquito needs, behavior and preferences in designing effective mosquito control strategies. Gravid mosquitoes must find a suitable place for oviposition, and HCBS provides an easy-access controlled environment for them to do so within households. Contrary to the commonly current recommendation to destroy all possible locations where mosquitoes can lay their eggs, the HCBS methodology provides an opportunity for gravid mosquitoes to oviposit their eggs without being deterred by chemical odors or dead larvae or pupae. It involves waiting for a timespan before effectively collecting and destroying the individuals in one concerted effort with zero impact on the environment and at minimal cost. Successful deposition of eggs by gravid mosquitoes into HCBS devices, followed by their destruction within the designated timeframe, validates the system's efficacy in disrupting the mosquito life cycle. Moreover, our findings demonstrate the significant influence of color selection on HCBS effectiveness, with green HCBS devices attracting the highest number of gravid female mosquitoes for oviposition. These integrated components offer a comprehensive understanding of the HCBS approach, effectively bridging the gap between methodological development, device design, and practical application. The findings underscore HCBS as a valuable addition to mosquito control strategies, with potential applications in diverse environments. Further research is essential to delve into and model the long-term effectiveness of HCBS, aiming to optimize its design for maximum efficacy and scalability. This includes studying its performance over extended periods and refining the design parameters to enhance its functionality and widespread applicability including the use of disaster risk management systems.

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A data-driven robust decision-making model for configuring a resilient and responsive relief supply chain under mixed uncertainty

• Original Research
• Published: 15 May 2024

Cite this article

• Bahar Javan-Molaei 1 ,
• Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6757-926X 2 , 3 ,
• Mohssen Ghanavati-Nejad 1 &
• Amin Asghari-Asl 4  

The crucial role of the Relief Supply Chains (RSCs) in the response phase of disaster management is undeniable. However, the literature shows that the simultaneous consideration of the resilience and responsiveness dimensions in designing the RSCs under mixed uncertainty has been ignored by researchers. In this regard, to cover the mentioned gap, the current study aims to configure an RSC by considering two critically important features namely resilience and responsiveness under mixed uncertainty. For this purpose, this work proposed a multi-stage Decision-Making Framework (DMF). In the first stage, a Multi-Objective Model (MOM) is proposed that minimizes the total cost, maximizes the responsiveness level, and maximizes the resilience of the RSC. In the second stage, to deal with mixed uncertainty, a data-driven robust approach based on the Fuzzy Robust Stochastic (FRS), Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Exogenous (SARIMAX), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) methods is developed. In the third stage, to solve the proposed model, a novel variant of the goal programming method is developed. In general, the main contribution of this study is to develop a novel data-driven DMF to design a resilient-responsive RSC. To show the applicability and efficiency of the developed decision-making method, a real-world case study, the flood that happened in 2019 in Golestan province, Iran, is considered. Eventually, sensitivity analysis, managerial insights, and theoretical implications are presented. According to the achieved results, primary suppliers 1, 3, 5, and 7 and also backup supplier 1 are selected. Also, the results demonstrate that distribution centers 1, 2, 3, and 5 are established. Moreover, the optimal utilization of different transportation modes is specified in the achieved results. The outputs demonstrate that the developed data-driven FRS approach has better performance in comparison with the deterministic and traditional FRS models. Besides, the outputs indicate that the developed solution method has better performance in comparison with the traditional approaches.

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Javan-Molaei, B., Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, R., Ghanavati-Nejad, M. et al. A data-driven robust decision-making model for configuring a resilient and responsive relief supply chain under mixed uncertainty. Ann Oper Res (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-06038-w

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DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-024-06038-w

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