global warming essay 2023

Human, economic, environmental toll of climate change on the rise: WMO

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The relentless advance of climate change brought more drought, flooding and heatwaves to communities around the world last year, compounding threats to people’s lives and livelihoods, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization ( WMO ) said on Friday.

WMO latest State of the Global Climate report shows that the last eight years were the eight warmest on record , and that sea level rise and ocean warming hit new highs . Record levels of greenhouse gases caused “planetary scale changes on land, in the ocean and in the atmosphere”.

#ClimateChange shocks increased in 2022. Ocean heat and sea level rise at record levels. Antarctic sea ice hit a new low. Extreme glacier melt in Europe. #StateOfClimate report highlights the huge socio-economic cost of droughts, floods, and heatwaves.🔗 https://t.co/yipNQtrK12 https://t.co/Vnrbe9M8Xl World Meteorological Organization WMO April 21, 2023

The organization says its report, released ahead of this year’s Mother Earth Day , echoes UN Secretary-General António Guterres ’ call for “ deeper, faster emissions cuts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degree Celsius”, as well as “ massively scaled-up investments in adaptation and resilience, particularly for the most vulnerable countries and communities who have done the least to cause the crisis”.

WMO Secretary-General, Prof. Petteri Taalas, said that amid rising greenhouse gas emissions and a changing climate, “populations worldwide continue to be gravely impacted by extreme weather and climate events ”. He stressed that last year, “continuous drought in East Africa, record breaking rainfall in Pakistan and record-breaking heatwaves in China and Europe affected tens of millions, drove food insecurity, boosted mass migration, and cost billions of dollars in loss and damage.”

WMO highlights the importance of investing in climate monitoring and early warning systems to help mitigate the humanitarian impacts of extreme weather. The report also points out that today, improved technology makes the transition to renewable energy “cheaper and more accessible than ever” .

Warmest years on record

The State of the Global Climate report complements the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Sixth Assessment report released a month ago, which includes data up to 2020.

WMO’s new figures show that global temperatures have continued to rise, making the years 2015 to 2022 the eight warmest ever since regular tracking started in 1850. WMO notes that this was despite three consecutive years of a cooling La Niña climate pattern.

WMO says concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases, which trap heat in the atmosphere – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – reached record highs in 2021, which is the latest year for which consolidated data is available , and that there are indications of a continued increase in 2022.

Indicators ‘off the charts’

According to the report, “melting of glaciers and sea level rise - which again reached record levels in 2022 - will continue to up to thousands of years ”. WMO further highlights that “Antarctic sea ice fell to its lowest extent on record and the melting of some European glaciers was, literally, off the charts”.

Sea level rise, which threatens the existence of coastal communities and sometimes entire countries, has been fuelled not only by melting glaciers and ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica, but also by the expansion of the volume of oceans due to heat. WMO notes that ocean warming has been “particularly high in the past two decades”.

Deadly consequences

The report examines the many socio-economic impacts of extreme weather, which have wreaked havoc in the lives of the most vulnerable around the world . Five consecutive years of drought in East Africa, in conjunction with other factors such as armed conflict, have brought devastating food insecurity to 20 million people across the region.

Extensive flooding in Pakistan caused by severe rainfall in July and August last year killed over 1,700 people, while some 33 million were affected. WMO highlights that total damage and economic losses were assessed at $30 billion, and that by October 2022, around 8 million people had been internally displaced by the floods.

The report also notes that in addition to putting scores of people on the move, throughout the year, hazardous climate and weather-related events “worsened conditions” for many of the 95 million people already living in displacement .

Threat to ecosystems

Environmental impacts of climate change are another focus of the report, which highlights a shift in recurring events in nature, “such as when trees blossom, or birds migrate”. The flowering of cherry trees in Japan has been tracked since the ninth century, and in 2021 the date of the event was the earliest recorded in 1,200 years .

As a result of such shifts, entire ecosystems can be upended . WMO notes that spring arrival times of over a hundred European migratory bird species over five decades “show increasing levels of mismatch to other spring events”, such as the moment when trees produce leaves and insects take flight, which are important for bird survival.

The report says these mismatches “are likely to have contributed to population decline in some migrant species , particularly those wintering in sub-Saharan Africa”, and to the ongoing destruction of biodiversity.

Ending the ‘war on nature’

In his message on Earth Day, UN chief Mr. Guterres warned that “ biodiversity is collapsing as one million species teeter on the brink of extinction ”, and called on the world to end its “relentless and senseless wars on nature”, insisting that “we have the tools, the knowledge, and the solutions” to address climate change.

Last month, Mr. Guterres convened an Advisory Panel of top UN agency officials, private sector and civil society leaders, to help fast track a global initiative aiming to protect all countries through life-saving early warning systems by 2027. Stepped up coordinated action was announced, initially in 30 countries particularly vulnerable to extreme weather, including Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries.

Early Warnings for All

WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas said on Friday that some one hundred countries currently do not have adequate weather services in place, and that the UN Early Warnings for All Initiative “ aims to fill the existing capacity gap to ensure that every person on earth is covered by early warning services”.

Mr. Taalas explained that “achieving this ambitious task requires improvement of observation networks, investments in early warning, hydrological and climate service capacities.” He also stressed the effectiveness of collaboration among UN agencies in addressing humanitarian impacts of climate events, especially in reducing mortality and economic losses. 

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Scientists deliver ‘final warning’ on climate crisis: act now or it’s too late

IPCC report says only swift and drastic action can avert irrevocable damage to world

• Analysis: Humanity at the crossroads
• Timeline: The IPCC’s reports

Scientists have delivered a “final warning” on the climate crisis, as rising greenhouse gas emissions push the world to the brink of irrevocable damage that only swift and drastic action can avert.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), made up of the world’s leading climate scientists, set out the final part of its mammoth sixth assessment report on Monday.

The comprehensive review of human knowledge of the climate crisis took hundreds of scientists eight years to compile and runs to thousands of pages, but boiled down to one message: act now, or it will be too late.

The UN secretary general, António Guterres, said: “This report is a clarion call to massively fast-track climate efforts by every country and every sector and on every timeframe. Our world needs climate action on all fronts: everything, everywhere, all at once.”

In sober language, the IPCC set out the devastation that has already been inflicted on swathes of the world. Extreme weather caused by climate breakdown has led to increased deaths from intensifying heatwaves in all regions, millions of lives and homes destroyed in droughts and floods, millions of people facing hunger, and “increasingly irreversible losses” in vital ecosystems.

Monday’s final instalment, called the synthesis report , is almost certain to be the last such assessment while the world still has a chance of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the threshold beyond which our damage to the climate will rapidly become irreversible .

Kaisa Kosonen, a climate expert at Greenpeace International, said: “This report is definitely a final warning on 1.5C. If governments just stay on their current policies, the remaining carbon budget will be used up before the next IPCC report [due in 2030].”

More than 3bn people already live in areas that are “highly vulnerable” to climate breakdown, the IPCC found, and half of the global population now experiences severe water scarcity for at least part of the year. In many areas, the report warned, we are already reaching the limit to which we can adapt to such severe changes, and weather extremes are “increasingly driving displacement” of people in Africa, Asia, North, Central and South America, and the south Pacific.

All of those impacts are set to increase rapidly, as we have failed to reverse the 200-year trend of rising greenhouse gas emissions, despite more than 30 years of warnings from the IPCC, which published its first report in 1990.

The world heats up in response to the accumulation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, so every year in which emissions continue to rise eats up the available “carbon budget” and means much more drastic cuts will be needed in future years.

Yet there is still hope of staying within 1.5C, according to the report. Hoesung Lee, the chair of the IPCC, said: “This synthesis report underscores the urgency of taking more ambitious action and shows that, if we act now, we can still secure a livable sustainable future for all.”

Temperatures are now about 1.1C above pre-industrial levels, the IPCC found. If greenhouse gas emissions can be made to peak as soon as possible, and are reduced rapidly in the following years, it may still be possible to avoid the worst ravages that would follow a 1.5C rise.

Richard Allan, a professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said: “Every bit of warming avoided due to the collective actions pulled from our growing, increasingly effective toolkit of options is less worse news for societies and the ecosystems on which we all depend.”

Guterres called on governments to take drastic action to reduce emissions by investing in renewable energy and low-carbon technology. He said rich countries must try to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions “as close as possible to 2040”, rather than waiting for the 2050 deadline most have signed up to.

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He said: “The climate timebomb is ticking. But today’s report is a how-to guide to defuse the climate timebomb. It is a survival guide for humanity. As it shows, the 1.5C limit is achievable.”

John Kerry, the US special presidential envoy for climate, said: “Today’s message from the IPCC is abundantly clear: we are making progress, but not enough. We have the tools to stave off and reduce the risks of the worst impacts of the climate crisis, but we must take advantage of this moment to act now.”

Monday’s “synthesis report” is the final part of the sixth assessment report (AR6) by the IPCC, which was set up in 1988 to investigate the climate and provide scientific underpinning to international policy on the crisis. The first three sections of AR6, published between August 2021 and April 2022, covered the physical science behind the climate crisis, and warned irreversible changes were now almost inevitable ; section two covered the impacts , such as the loss of agriculture, rising sea levels, and the devastation of the natural world; and the third covered the means by which we can cut greenhouse gases , including renewable energy, restoring nature and technologies that capture and store carbon dioxide.

The “synthesis report” contains no new science, but draws together key messages from all of the preceding work to form a guide for governments. The next IPCC report is not due to be published before 2030, making this report effectively the scientific gold standard for advice to governments in this crucial decade.

The final section of AR6 was the “summary for policymakers”, written by IPCC scientists but scrutinised by representatives of governments around the world , who can – and did – push for changes. The Guardian was told that in the final hours of deliberations at the Swiss resort of Interlaken over the weekend, the large Saudi Arabian delegation, of at least 10 representatives, pushed at several points for the weakening of messages on fossil fuels, and the insertion of references to carbon capture and storage, touted by some as a remedy for fossil fuel use but not yet proven to work at scale.

In response to the report, Peter Thorne, the director of the Icarus climate research centre at Maynooth University in Ireland, said next year global temperatures could breach the 1.5C limit, though this did not mean the limit had been breached for the long term. “We will, almost regardless of the emissions scenario given, reach 1.5C in the first half of the next decade,” he said. “The real question is whether our collective choices mean we stabilise around 1.5C or crash through 1.5C, reach 2C and keep going.”

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• 22 September 2023

Earth’s average 2023 temperature is now likely to reach 1.5 °C of warming

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Earth is hurtling towards its average temperature rising by 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels . One climate model suggests that the likelihood of reaching that threshold in 2023 is now 55%.

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Book Reviews

Greta thunberg's 'the climate book' urges world to keep climate justice out front.

Barbara J. King

Swedish climate campaigner Greta Thunberg waits in Erkelenz, Germany, to take part in a demonstration at a nearby a coal mine on Jan. 14. Michael Probst/AP hide caption

Swedish climate campaigner Greta Thunberg waits in Erkelenz, Germany, to take part in a demonstration at a nearby a coal mine on Jan. 14.

Climate activist Greta Thunberg who, at age 15, led school strikes every Friday in her home country of Sweden — a practice that caught on globally — has now, at 20, managed to bring together more than 100 scientists, environmental activists, journalists and writers to lay out exactly how and why it's clear that the climate crisis is happening.

Impressively, in The Climate Book, Thunberg and team — which includes well-known names like Margaret Atwood, George Monbiot, Bill McKibben and Robin Wall Kimmerer -- explain and offer action items in 84 compelling, bite-size chapters.

Most critically, they — and Thunberg herself in numerous brief essays of her own — explain what steps need to be taken without delay if the world is to have a reasonable chance of limiting global temperature rise as stated in the 2015 Paris Agreement. The document aims to keep the temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius (and better yet below 1.5 degrees Celsius).

The essays also explain why climate justice must be at the center of these efforts.

Reading The Climate Book at a deliberate pace over some weeks (it's a lot to absorb), the cumulative impact on my understanding of the crisis through its data, cross-cultural reflections, and paths for step-by-step change became mesmerizing.

If you think the rich nations of the world are making real progress towards achieving limits on global warming, think again. In one essay, Kevin Anderson, professor of energy and climate change at the Universities of Manchester, Uppsala and Bergen, puts it this way: "Wealthy nations must eliminate their use of fossils fuels by around 2030 for a likely chance of 1.5C, extending only around 2035 to 2040 for 2C... We are where we are precisely because for thirty years we've favoured make-believe over real mitigation."

What does Anderson mean by "make-believe"? In her own chapter, journalist Alexandra Urisman Otto describes her investigation into Swedish climate policy, specifically its net zero target for 2045. She discovered a discrepancy between the official number of greenhouse gases emitted each year — 50 million tons — and the real figure, 150 million tons. That lower, official figure leaves out "emissions from consumption and the burning of biomass," which means the target is way off, she writes. If all countries were off by that much, the world would be heading straight for a catastrophic increase of 2.5 to 3C.

What does that mean, emissions from consumption and the burning of biomass? John Barrett, professor of energy and climate policy at the University of Leeds, and Alice Garvey, sustainability researcher at the same university, explain that "emissions from consumption" means emissions are allocated to the country of the consumer, not the producer. Because industrial production is often outsourced to developing economies, in a world where climate justice were front and center, the consumer country (in this example, Sweden) would take the burden of lessening the emissions from consumption.

As for biomass, that refers to burning wood for energy, and sometimes other materials like kelp. Burning wood for energy causes more emissions per unit of energy than fossil fuels, explain Karl-Heinz Erb and Simone Gingrich, both social ecology professors at Vienna's University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences.

Alice Larkin, professor of climate science and energy policy at the University of Manchester, adds "a highly significant complication" to this disturbing picture: international aviation and shipping aren't typically accounted for in national emission targets, policies, and carbon budgets, either.

This under-reporting situation, I would wager, isn't known even by many climate-literate citizens. It certainly wasn't to me.

One urgent goal, then, is transparency in climate-emission figures. Beyond that, Thunberg says, distribution of climate budgets fairly across countries of the world must be a priority. Without climate justice, policies are unlikely to succeed. An especially effective subsection of the book, "We are not all in the same boat," brings this point to life.

Saleemul Huq, director of a Bangladeshi international center for climate change, puts the point squarely: The communities most devastated by climate change "are overwhelmingly poor people of colour." But Bangladeshi citizens shouldn't be thought of as passive victims, Huq emphasizes. Communities work together to prepare for the effects of climate disasters in ways not often seen in the global north. For example, "An elderly widow living alone will have two children from the high school assigned to go and pick her up" in case of hurricane or other emergency.

Globally, then, what to do? First, we can hold industrial and corporate interests accountable and push back on their messages placing the burden solely on the individual, a tactic that allows the worst of the status quo carbon-emissions activities to continue.

Beyond this, it's not enough "to become vegetarian for one day a week, offset our holiday trips to Thailand or switch our diesel SUV for an electric car," as Thunberg puts it. Participating in recycling may lead to feel-good moments, but in fact, in the words of Greenpeace activist Nina Schrank, it's "perhaps the greatest example of greenwashing on the planet today." Even the 9% of plastic that does get recycled ends up (after one or two cycles) dumped or burned.

Thunberg herself has given up flying. In the book she writes, "Frequent flying is by far the most climate-destructive individual activity you can engage in." Though she writes that lowering her personal carbon footprint isn't her specific goal in sailing (instead of flying) across the Atlantic — she hopes to convey the need for urgent, collective behavioral change. "If we do not see anyone else behaving as if we are in a crisis, then very few will understand that we actually are in a crisis," she writes.

We can join Thunberg in giving up- or at least reducing- a flying habit if we have one. Three further steps, out of many offered in the book, are these: Switch to plant-based diets. Support natural climate solutions, by protecting forests, salt marshes, mangroves, the oceans, and all the animal and plant life in these habitats. Pressure the media to go beyond the latest story on a heat wave or collapsing glacier to focus on root causes, time urgency, and solutions. Thunberg writes that "No entity other than the media has the opportunity to create the necessary transformation of our global society."

Social norms can and do change, Thunberg emphasizes. That's our greatest source of hope — but only if we keep climate justice front and center at every step.

Barbara J. King is a biological anthropologist emerita at William & Mary. Animals' Best Friends: Putting Compassion to Work for Animals in Captivity is her seventh book. Find her on Twitter @bjkingape

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Home / Global Warming’s Six Americas, Fall 2023

Climate Note · Dec 14, 2023

Global warming’s six americas, fall 2023, by anthony leiserowitz , edward maibach , seth rosenthal , john kotcher , emily goddard , jennifer carman , marija verner , matthew ballew , jennifer marlon , sanguk lee , teresa myers , matthew goldberg , nicholas badullovich and kathryn thier, filed under: audiences and beliefs & attitudes.

In 2009, we identified Global Warming’s Six Americas – the Alarmed , Concerned , Cautious , Disengaged , Doubtful , and Dismissive – which represent distinct climate opinion audiences within the American public. The Alarmed are the most worried about global warming and the most likely to support and engage in pro-climate action. The Concerned are also worried about global warming, but they view it as a less serious threat and are less motivated to act. The Cautious are uncertain about global warming and are not very worried about it, so they are less motivated to take action. The Disengaged are disconnected from the issue and rarely hear about it. The Doubtful question whether global warming is happening or human-caused, and are among the least worried about it and motivated to act. The Dismissive reject the idea that global warming is happening and human-caused and do not believe it is a threat, so they are the most likely to oppose climate action.

In 2018, we created and published the Six Americas Survey (SASSY), a short, four-question online questionnaire that can be used to identify which Six Americas segment people belong to. Using SASSY as part of our Fall 2023 Climate Change in the American Mind nationally representative survey, we find that 28% of Americans are Alarmed and that the Alarmed outnumber the Dismissive (11%) by a ratio of more than 2 to 1. Further, when the Alarmed and Concerned are grouped together, a majority of Americans (56%) fall into one of these audiences. Percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number for tabulation purposes and summed categories (e.g., “Alarmed” + “Concerned”) are rounded after sums are calculated (e.g., 27.6% + 28.6% = 56.2%, which after rounding would appear in this report as 28% + 29% = 56%). Overall, Americans are more than twice as likely to be Alarmed or Concerned than they are Doubtful or Dismissive (23%). Additionally, the percentage of Republicans who are either Alarmed or Concerned has increased by 6 percentage points over the past year (from 22% to 28%), while the already high percentage of Democrats who are Alarmed or Concerned has remained the same (82%; refer to Table 2 in the data tables ).

The Six Americas Over the Last Decade

Over the past ten years, the Alarmed have grown more than any other audience, nearly doubling in size from 15% in 2013 to 28% in 2023 (+13 percentage points). Conversely, the Cautious have decreased in size the most during that time, from 26% in 2013 to 15% in 2023 (-11 percentage points). Additionally, the percentage of Americans who are either Alarmed or Concerned has increased from 40% in 2013 to 56% in 2023 (+16 percentage points). The Disengaged and Dismissive audiences have remained relatively similar in size over the last decade.

Communication Opportunities

More Americans have become worried about global warming over the last 10 years, and majorities are also worried about various climate impacts and extreme weather events harming their local community. Worry about extreme heat has especially increased over the past five years. Additionally, the public increasingly understands that global warming is affecting the weather . With record-breaking temperatures and other extreme weather events on the rise, it is important to continue educating the public to understand that climate change impacts are happening here and now and will increasingly harm American communities if we don’t take action to greatly limit the pollution that causes global warming.

Americans want more climate solutions and policies. Our research has shown that most registered voters support numerous policies to reduce the pollution that causes global warming and prefer to vote for a candidate who supports action on global warming .

Data are from the biannual Climate Change in the American Mind survey, a nationally-representative survey of public opinion on climate change in the United States conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication . Surveys were conducted from October 20 – 26, 2023 using the Ipsos KnowledgePanel®, a representative online panel of U.S. adults (18+). Respondents self-administered the questionnaires online in a web-based environment.

The average margin of error for each wave is +/- 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Results are adjusted on a number of key demographic categories to align with U.S. Census parameters. Percentage points are rounded to the nearest whole number for tabulation purposes and summed categories (e.g., “Alarmed” + “Concerned”) are rounded after sums are calculated (e.g., 27.6% + 28.6% = 56.2%, which after rounding would appear in this report as 28% + 29% = 56%). Percentages in a given chart may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. 

References to Republicans and Democrats include respondents who initially identify as either a Republican or Democrat, as well as those who do not initially identify as a Republican or Democrat but who say they are closer to one of those parties (i.e., leaners) in a follow-up question.

The data tables used in this report can be found here .

Resources and Data

The Six Americas Survey (SASSY) is a short, four-question online questionnaire that identifies which audience people belong to ( Chryst et al., 2018 ). Results also show how respondents’ views about global warming compare with the views of the U.S. population as a whole.

The SASSY Group tool allows users to upload their own data (e.g., from one’s own survey, a class, members of an organization, etc.). This tool determines the Six Americas segment for each person in the dataset and provides a downloadable spreadsheet and summary graphics.

Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Rosenthal, S., Kotcher, J., Goddard, E., Carman, J., Verner, M., Ballew, M., Marlon, J., Lee, S., Myers, T., Goldberg, M., Badullovich, N., Thier, K. (2023). Global Warming's Six Americas, Fall 2023. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

Funding Sources

The research was funded by the Schmidt Family Foundation, the Energy Foundation, the MacArthur Foundation, the Heising-Simons Foundation, King Philanthropies, and the Grantham Foundation.

Climate Change in the American Mind

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Preliminary analysis says global warming more to blame than El Niño for Amazon’s ongoing record drought

The devastating drought in the Amazon River Basin that we wrote about in October has continued into Northern Hemisphere winter, which is the heart of the wet season in the southern part of the basin. The drought is cutting off rural and riverside communities from food supplies, markets for their crops, and health services; causing electricity blackouts due to hydropower disruptions; and forcing water rationing in some urban areas.

Straddling the equator, the Amazon River Basin occupies more than a third of South America. Rainfall is seasonal, shifting north of the equator in Northern Hemisphere summer and south of the equator in Northern Hemisphere winter. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on NASA Blue Marble collection.

As we wrote in October, droughts are common in the Amazon during El Niño , a natural climate pattern that warms the central-eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. Along with the ocean warming comes changes in which parts of the tropics get the most rainfall. The details vary from one El Niño to the next, but the Amazon is generally one of the rainfall losers , and the current El Niño is a strong one . In 2023, however, the rainfall shortages also came with extreme heat , which intensifies evaporation and drying of the soil.

Based on preliminary analysis of observations and computer model simulations, a team of experts with the World Weather Attribution project has concluded that human-caused global warming played a significantly larger role than El Niño in intensifying the 2023 Amazon drought. Compared to a world where global warming didn’t happen, models estimate that today’s warmer world doubled the precipitation deficits (“ meteorological drought ”) that could have been expected from El Niño alone, but even that impact was small compared the way rising temperatures amplified water stress (“ agricultural drought ”). The drought would have been “severe” without global warming, but the long-term rise in temperatures intensified it by two categories, turning the 2023 drought into an “exceptional” one that has become the worst on record.

Drought status across the Amazon River basin for June-November 2023 based on the U.S. Drought Monitor classification system. Large parts of the eastern half of the basin and pockets of the western half were in extreme or exceptional drought. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on World Weather Attribution analysis provided by Ben Clarke.

The research has not yet been peer reviewed (the process by which several experts critique a study’s methods, results, and conclusions before an article is published in a scientific journal.) However, the team used methods that have previously passed peer-review : using observations to describe drought variability through time and to detect trends, identifying Earth system/climate models that realistically simulate Amazon rainfall and drought, and then comparing the frequency and intensity of droughts like the current one in two simulated worlds—one with and one without global warming. (Many “rapid response” analyses using these methods go on to be published in peer-reviewed journals , such as the their analysis of the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest and their analysis of record-setting flooding in Louisiana in August 2016 .)

Amazon drought in a world without global warming

Observations indicate the rainfall shortages alone (meteorological drought) made a drought like the 2023 one a 1-in-100-year event—so rare that it only has a 1 percent chance of occurring each year. ( Return intervals are often misunderstood to mean such events will always be exactly so many years apart, but the interval is an average over long periods of time.) In the simulations of the world without global warming, droughts as bad as the 2023 event were 10 times less frequent on average.

When the scientists took into account the combined impact of rainfall shortages and heat-driven evaporation of soil moisture (“agricultural drought”), they concluded that the return interval for the 2023 drought in today’s climate was closer to a 1-in-50-year event on average (meaning a 2% chance of happening each year). Such a drought was 30 times less frequent in the simulations of the world without global warming.

Drought and a future Amazon tipping point

The increases in drought frequency and intensity reported by the World Weather Attribution team are based on observed global warming to date, about 1.2 ˚Celsius (2.2 ˚Fahrenheit) above the pre-industrial average. Looking ahead into a future where greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at a high rate and global warming reaches 2 ˚C (3.6 ˚F) above the pre-industrial, models project that agricultural droughts as intense as the 2023 event will increase in frequency by a further factor of 4, giving them an average return interval of 10-15 years.

Deforestation in the southern Amazon River Basin in the past two decades. Photo-like satellite images from NASA's Terra satellite show the extent of intact forest (deep green) and cleared areas (light green and reddish brown) on June 9, 2000, and June 22, 2023. In the 23 years separating the images, significant new areas were cleared along the southern edges of the forest and along roads penetrating northward into the heart of the Amazon. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on NASA Terra satellite data from Worldview.

Such a dramatic increase in the return interval of exceptional droughts would push the Amazon Rainforest ever closer to what some ecologists think may be an Amazon “ tipping point ,” beyond which the Amazon will become like a savanna. At least half of the rain that falls over the Amazon basin is recycled moisture that the trees themselves inhale from the soil and breathe back into the atmosphere. As deforestation and fire degrade the forest along edges and roads, the Amazon’s rain-making capacity gets weaker. Dry seasons get longer, and surface water dwindles. Mature trees succumb to droughts, and new ones fail to replace them. These changes are already occurring at a local scale in the southern and eastern parts of the Amazon River Basin. Past a certain point, models project that the large swaths of tropical rainforest will rapidly flip into a savanna-like landscape.

Where is that tipping point? In a 2018 essay in Science Advances , two Amazon experts pointed out that many models project that without deforestation and fires, an Amazon tipping point wouldn’t be reached until global warming surpassed 4 ˚Celsius above the pre-industrial. Without climate change, models estimated it would take deforestation rates of about 40 percent to push the Amazon past its tipping point. Individually, those thresholds may be far off. But the combined “negative synergies” of multiple human impacts—fire, deforestation, and climate change—are very likely to lower the threshold. In short, the authors argued in a follow-up essay in 2019 , the tipping point may be a lot closer than we think.

As the world works to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stave off further warming, the safe thing to do, these experts say, is to not only curb deforestation, but also to reforest cleared and degraded areas in the southern and eastern parts of the Amazon. Reforestation would help to restore the region’s moisture-recycling capacity and act as a buffer to global warming until the world achieves net zero greenhouse gas emissions.

More reading

For more details on the 2023 Amazon drought analysis, which includes more information on impacts to vulnerable populations, read the full report (pdf) . This type of study is called extreme event attribution . Read our explainer for a deeper dive, or check out the resources available from the World Weather Attribution website.

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Global Warming 101

Everything you wanted to know about our changing climate but were too afraid to ask.

Temperatures in Beijing rose above 104 degrees Fahrenheit on July 6, 2023.

Jia Tianyong/China News Service/VCG via Getty Images

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What is global warming?

What causes global warming, how is global warming linked to extreme weather, what are the other effects of global warming, where does the united states stand in terms of global-warming contributors, is the united states doing anything to prevent global warming, is global warming too big a problem for me to help tackle.

A: Since the Industrial Revolution, the global annual temperature has increased in total by a little more than 1 degree Celsius, or about 2 degrees Fahrenheit. Between 1880—the year that accurate recordkeeping began—and 1980, it rose on average by 0.07 degrees Celsius (0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) every 10 years. Since 1981, however, the rate of increase has more than doubled: For the last 40 years, we’ve seen the global annual temperature rise by 0.18 degrees Celsius, or 0.32 degrees Fahrenheit, per decade.

The result? A planet that has never been hotter . Nine of the 10 warmest years since 1880 have occurred since 2005—and the 5 warmest years on record have all occurred since 2015. Climate change deniers have argued that there has been a “pause” or a “slowdown” in rising global temperatures, but numerous studies, including a 2018 paper published in the journal Environmental Research Letters , have disproved this claim. The impacts of global warming are already harming people around the world.

Now climate scientists have concluded that we must limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2040 if we are to avoid a future in which everyday life around the world is marked by its worst, most devastating effects: the extreme droughts, wildfires, floods, tropical storms, and other disasters that we refer to collectively as climate change . These effects are felt by all people in one way or another but are experienced most acutely by the underprivileged, the economically marginalized, and people of color, for whom climate change is often a key driver of poverty, displacement, hunger, and social unrest.

A: Global warming occurs when carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other air pollutants collect in the atmosphere and absorb sunlight and solar radiation that have bounced off the earth’s surface. Normally this radiation would escape into space, but these pollutants, which can last for years to centuries in the atmosphere, trap the heat and cause the planet to get hotter. These heat-trapping pollutants—specifically carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, water vapor, and synthetic fluorinated gases—are known as greenhouse gases, and their impact is called the greenhouse effect .

Though natural cycles and fluctuations have caused the earth’s climate to change several times over the last 800,000 years, our current era of global warming is directly attributable to human activity—specifically to our burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, gasoline, and natural gas, which results in the greenhouse effect. In the United States, the largest source of greenhouse gases is transportation (29 percent), followed closely by electricity production (28 percent) and industrial activity (22 percent). Learn about the natural and human causes of climate change .

Curbing dangerous climate change requires very deep cuts in emissions, as well as the use of alternatives to fossil fuels worldwide. The good news is that countries around the globe have formally committed—as part of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement —to lower their emissions by setting new standards and crafting new policies to meet or even exceed those standards. The not-so-good news is that we’re not working fast enough. To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, scientists tell us that we need to reduce global carbon emissions by as much as 40 percent by 2030. For that to happen, the global community must take immediate, concrete steps: to decarbonize electricity generation by equitably transitioning from fossil fuel–based production to renewable energy sources like wind and solar; to electrify our cars and trucks; and to maximize energy efficiency in our buildings, appliances, and industries.

A: Scientists agree that the earth’s rising temperatures are fueling longer and hotter heat waves, more frequent droughts, heavier rainfall, and more powerful hurricanes .

In 2015, for example, scientists concluded that a lengthy drought in California—the state’s worst water shortage in 1,200 years —had been intensified by 15 to 20 percent by global warming. They also said the odds of similar droughts happening in the future had roughly doubled over the past century. And in 2016, the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine announced that we can now confidently attribute some extreme weather events, like heat waves, droughts, and heavy precipitation, directly to climate change.

The earth’s ocean temperatures are getting warmer, too—which means that tropical storms can pick up more energy. In other words, global warming has the ability to turn a category 3 storm into a more dangerous category 4 storm. In fact, scientists have found that the frequency of North Atlantic hurricanes has increased since the early 1980s, as has the number of storms that reach categories 4 and 5. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season included a record-breaking 30 tropical storms, 6 major hurricanes, and 13 hurricanes altogether. With increased intensity come increased damage and death. The United States saw an unprecedented 22 weather and climate disasters that caused at least a billion dollars’ worth of damage in 2020, but 2017 was the costliest on record and among the deadliest as well: Taken together, that year's tropical storms (including Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria) caused nearly $300 billion in damage and led to more than 3,300 fatalities.

The impacts of global warming are being felt everywhere. Extreme heat waves have caused tens of thousands of deaths around the world in recent years. And in an alarming sign of events to come, Antarctica has lost nearly four trillion metric tons of ice since the 1990s. The rate of loss could speed up if we keep burning fossil fuels at our current pace, some experts say, causing sea levels to rise several meters in the next 50 to 150 years and wreaking havoc on coastal communities worldwide.

A: Each year scientists learn more about the consequences of global warming , and each year we also gain new evidence of its devastating impact on people and the planet. As the heat waves, droughts, and floods associated with climate change become more frequent and more intense, communities suffer and death tolls rise. If we’re unable to reduce our emissions, scientists believe that climate change could lead to the deaths of more than 250,000 people around the globe every year and force 100 million people into poverty by 2030.

Global warming is already taking a toll on the United States. And if we aren’t able to get a handle on our emissions, here’s just a smattering of what we can look forward to:

• Disappearing glaciers , early snowmelt, and severe droughts will cause more dramatic water shortages and continue to increase the risk of wildfires in the American West.
• Rising sea levels will lead to even more coastal flooding on the Eastern Seaboard, especially in Florida, and in other areas such as the Gulf of Mexico.
• Forests, farms, and cities will face troublesome new pests , heat waves, heavy downpours, and increased flooding . All of these can damage or destroy agriculture and fisheries.
• Disruption of habitats such as coral reefs and alpine meadows could drive many plant and animal species to extinction.
• Allergies, asthma, and infectious disease outbreaks will become more common due to increased growth of pollen-producing ragweed , higher levels of air pollution , and the spread of conditions favorable to pathogens and mosquitoes.

Though everyone is affected by climate change, not everyone is affected equally. Indigenous people, people of color, and the economically marginalized are typically hit the hardest . Inequities built into our housing , health care , and labor systems make these communities more vulnerable to the worst impacts of climate change—even though these same communities have done the least to contribute to it.

A: In recent years, China has taken the lead in global-warming pollution , producing about 26 percent of all CO2 emissions. The United States comes in second. Despite making up just 4 percent of the world’s population, our nation produces a sobering 13 percent of all global CO2 emissions—nearly as much as the European Union and India (third and fourth place) combined. And America is still number one, by far, in cumulative emissions over the past 150 years. As a top contributor to global warming, the United States has an obligation to help propel the world to a cleaner, safer, and more equitable future. Our responsibility matters to other countries, and it should matter to us, too.

A: We’ve started. But in order to avoid the worsening effects of climate change, we need to do a lot more—together with other countries—to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and transition to clean energy sources.

Under the administration of President Donald Trump (a man who falsely referred to global warming as a “hoax”), the United States withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, rolled back or eliminated dozens of clean-air protections, and opened up federally managed lands, including culturally sacred national monuments , to fossil fuel development. Although President Biden has pledged to get the country back on track, years of inaction during and before the Trump administration—and our increased understanding of global warming’s serious impacts—mean we must accelerate our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Despite the lack of cooperation from the Trump administration, local and state governments made great strides during this period through efforts like the American Cities Climate Challenge and ongoing collaborations like the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative . Meanwhile, industry and business leaders have been working with the public sector, creating and adopting new clean-energy technologies and increasing energy efficiency in buildings, appliances, and industrial processes. Today the American automotive industry is finding new ways to produce cars and trucks that are more fuel efficient and is committing itself to putting more and more zero-emission electric vehicles on the road. Developers, cities, and community advocates are coming together to make sure that new affordable housing is built with efficiency in mind , reducing energy consumption and lowering electric and heating bills for residents. And renewable energy continues to surge as the costs associated with its production and distribution keep falling. In 2020 renewable energy sources such as wind and solar provided more electricity than coal for the very first time in U.S. history.

President Biden has made action on global warming a high priority. On his first day in office, he recommitted the United States to the Paris Climate Agreement, sending the world community a strong signal that we were determined to join other nations in cutting our carbon pollution to support the shared goal of preventing the average global temperature from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. (Scientists say we must stay below a 2-degree increase to avoid catastrophic climate impacts.) And significantly, the president has assembled a climate team of experts and advocates who have been tasked with pursuing action both abroad and at home while furthering the cause of environmental justice and investing in nature-based solutions.

A: No! While we can’t win the fight without large-scale government action at the national level , we also can’t do it without the help of individuals who are willing to use their voices, hold government and industry leaders to account, and make changes in their daily habits.

Wondering how you can be a part of the fight against global warming? Reduce your own carbon footprint by taking a few easy steps: Make conserving energy a part of your daily routine and your decisions as a consumer. When you shop for new appliances like refrigerators, washers, and dryers, look for products with the government’s ENERGY STAR ® label; they meet a higher standard for energy efficiency than the minimum federal requirements. When you buy a car, look for one with the highest gas mileage and lowest emissions. You can also reduce your emissions by taking public transportation or carpooling when possible.

And while new federal and state standards are a step in the right direction, much more needs to be done. Voice your support of climate-friendly and climate change preparedness policies, and tell your representatives that equitably transitioning from dirty fossil fuels to clean power should be a top priority—because it’s vital to building healthy, more secure communities.

You don’t have to go it alone, either. Movements across the country are showing how climate action can build community , be led by those on the front lines of its impacts, and create a future that’s equitable and just for all .

This story was originally published on March 11, 2016 and has been updated with new information and links.

This NRDC.org story is available for online republication by news media outlets or nonprofits under these conditions: The writer(s) must be credited with a byline; you must note prominently that the story was originally published by NRDC.org and link to the original; the story cannot be edited (beyond simple things such as grammar); you can’t resell the story in any form or grant republishing rights to other outlets; you can’t republish our material wholesale or automatically—you need to select stories individually; you can’t republish the photos or graphics on our site without specific permission; you should drop us a note to let us know when you’ve used one of our stories.

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As climate chaos accelerates, which countries are polluting the most?

By Laura Paddison and Annette Choi, CNN

Updated January 2, 2024

The world is way off track for preventing “ climate catastrophe ,” and scientists are sounding the alarm that time is running out to slash fossil fuels. Data from Climate Action Tracker, an independent research group, reveals how much planet-heating pollution was spewed out in 2022, who were the biggest polluters and how much progress still needs to be made.

Per capita greenhouse gas emissions for the top 20 emitters

The world pumped out around

50 billion metric tons of planet-heating gases in 2022, according to this data. China was the largest climate polluter, making up nearly 30% of global emissions.

Most of the world’s planet-heating pollution comes from just a few countries. The

top 20 global climate polluters — dominated by China, India, the United States and the European Union — were responsible for 83% of emissions in 2022. What these countries do to respond to the climate crisis has an outsized impact on the rest of the world.

A different picture emerges when we look at per capita emissions, which represent the climate pollution produced by the average person in each country, and are calculated as total emissions divided by population. China may be the biggest emitter overall, but the average American is responsible for nearly twice as much climate pollution as the average person in China. And in densely populated India , one of the world’s biggest climate polluters, per capita emissions are significantly below the global average.

The world is heading toward nearly 3 degrees of global warming, even if current climate policies are met, the United Nations has warned. As the pressure increases on countries — especially those in the rich world — to rapidly scale up their climate ambitions, here’s a look at where we are now and how we got here.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries pledged to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, with the ambition of limiting it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Years of international climate action have put the world on the right path. Projected global warming is much lower than it was a decade ago.

But the pace is still far too slow . “It's not a little bit off. It's really, totally off,” said Niklas Höhne, a climate scientist at the non-profit the NewClimate Institute who works on the Climate Action Tracker.

A growing chorus of scientists has warned the 1.5 target may now be dead , but that doesn’t mean there’s less urgency, they say. “Every fraction of a degree makes a very big difference in impacts on the ground,” said Taryn Fransen, director of science, research, and data for the World Resources Institute's Global Climate Program.

The difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees means hundreds of millions more lives will be at risk from extreme weather events. And for some ecosystems, it’s a death sentence. For coral reefs, it’s the difference between “wiping them off the face of the Earth” and managing to hang onto some of them, Fransen said.

The task ahead is comparable to “turning around a huge tanker,” she said — it cannot be done immediately or easily. “The trouble is that we've run out of lead time and now we're having to turn the ship very, very quickly.”

A look at the data reveals why it’s proving so hard.

The goals of the world’s biggest climate polluters tell very different stories.

Planet-heating pollution in China soared as the country relied heavily on coal to grow its economy. But its emissions have started to plateau, and are projected to peak by 2025 , according to Climate Action Tracker. Toward the end of 2023, China also committed, alongside the US, to ramping up renewable energy and reducing all greenhouse gas emissions.

The country is a paradox, said Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate professor at the University of Exeter in the UK. China is developing renewable energy faster than anywhere in the world , but is also rapidly adding new coal power . The “good thing about China,” he said, “is they have the power and the will to pay to make change.”

In the US and EU, levels of planet-heating pollution have been declining for years as both amp up the ambition of their climate policies. In 2022, US President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest climate investment in the country's history, and the EU has set out an ambitious plan to massively scale up clean energy.

But there’s a “long way to go,” Höhne said. Both are starting from such high levels of emissions, there is still a considerable distance to reach net zero by 2050 — the plan to reduce planet-heating pollution as close to zero as possible, and remove from the atmosphere whatever remains.

India, where emissions are rising steeply, is often lumped in with China: Two major emerging economies and the world’s most populous nations, Fransen said, “but they’re actually quite different.”

India is much earlier on its development trajectory and has contributed very little to historical emissions. The country of more than 1.4 billion people has far lower per capita emissions than China and is still grappling with “tremendous levels of poverty,” Fransen said.

As India develops, its emissions are projected to increase. While it is investing in major renewable energy projects, it also remains reliant on coal.

When coal, oil and gas are burned, they release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, where it stays and keeps warming the planet for hundreds of years.

“What causes climate change today is not just the amount of emissions that occurred this year; it's all emissions that have occurred at least since the industrial revolution,” Fransen said. While China may have been the biggest polluter in 2022, the US has been by far the largest over time.

Not only do developed countries bear a greater historical responsibility for climate change, they built their economies — and their wealth — on it. Many in the Global South argue this means wealthy countries have a responsibility to slash emissions faster and reach net zero goals sooner.

The concept of fairness when it comes to climate action has long been a tense topic. At the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in December, countries formally adopted a fund to help nations hit hardest by the climate crisis, and pledged more than $700 million dollars.

Yet many climate vulnerable nations were left bitterly disappointed. Despite the summit’s final agreement noting trillions of dollars are needed every year to help them cope with climate change, it included no requirements for rich countries to give more.

The figures in this table show how much countries need to reduce planet-heating pollution to meet what a Climate Action Tracker analysis suggests is their “fair share” of emissions reductions by 2030 to put them on course to meet the 1.5-degree target. The analysis, based on more than 40 scientific studies, takes into account a range of factors including countries’ historical emissions and their ability to pay for climate action.

It reflects the reality that every country needs to act on climate change, but not all at the same pace, Fransen said. “Countries are different. They have different histories. They have different capabilities today.”

The EU and the US top the chart in part because of their outsized responsibility for historical emissions, Höhne said. Developed countries have emitted so much over the last nearly 200 years that “they are now in debt,” he added.

At the other end of the table, Nigeria has much lower historical responsibility for the climate crisis, and fewer resources to tackle it. The country technically has “a lot of space left to emit,” said Hanna Fekete of the NewClimate Institute, who works on the Climate Action Tracker. But that doesn’t mean Nigeria shouldn’t act, she added, especially as the country is a big producer and exporter of fossil fuels, and the tool does not capture exported emissions.

There are many different ways to determine what a country’s fair share of emissions cuts should be, Friedlingstein said. Climate Action Tracker's calculations are just one way of attempting to quantify responsibility.

“There is no one single answer” to the question of who should do what, he added. “It's not about physics. It's not about math. It's not about climate science. It's about decision and policy and diplomacy.”

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Stanford study uses AI to predict global warming threshold timelines

Media coverage of a new Stanford-led study that uses AI to predict when we will pass key global warming thresholds.

The Guardian | Jan 30, 2023 |  Earth is on track to exceed 1.5C warming in the next decade, study using AI finds   | Noah Diffenbaugh discusses the evidence and impact of the study's climate projections.

USA Today  | Jan 30, 2023 |  Artificial intelligence predicts climate change coming faster than we recently thought, new study says  | Noah Diffenbaugh on the risk of passing significant climate thresholds.

Associated Press | Jan 30, 2023 |  AI: World likely to hit key warming threshold in 10-12 years  | Noah Diffenbaugh comments on the possibility of avoiding a 2-degree rise in global temperature. 

Tech Times  | Feb 1, 2023 |  AI Model Predicts that Earth Will Cross Global Warming Threshold in 10-15 Years  | Noah Diffenbaugh on the novel methods and results gained from using AI to study climate.

CNN | Jan 30, 2023 |  A dire forecast: Scientists used AI to find planet could cross critical warming threshold sooner than expected  | Noah Diffenbaugh discusses different climate scenarios and their anticipated impacts. 

Gizmodo | Feb 1, 2023 |  AI Says Earth Will Hit Critical Global Warming Thresholds Faster Than We Thought  | Noah Diffenbaugh comments on how policy interacts with threatening thresholds.

ScienceAlert | Feb 1, 2023 |  AI Predicts We'll Breach Our Climate Goal in Just 10 Years  | Noah Diffenbaugh on the study's new approach to climate prediction. 

Energy Live News  | Jan 30, 2023 |  AI says 1.5°C is out of reach  |  Noah Diffenbaugh on the urgency required to avoid crossing the 2-degree threshold. 

KQED  | Jan 31, 2023 |  AI Is Predicting the World Is Likely to Hit a Key Warming Threshold in 10–12 Years  |  Noah Diffenbaugh comments on the built-up impacts of warming. 

Colorado State University  | Feb 9, 2023 | Earth likely to cross critical climate thresholds even if emissions decline  |  The results and methods of the study Noah Diffenbaugh co-authored with CSU faculty are discussed.

The Weather Channel  | Jan 30, 2023 | New AI-Based Study Indicates Earth Will Likely Breach the 1.5 Degree Threshold Between 2033-35 |  Noah Diffenbaugh on the power of using AI power in climate science.

The Week  | Jan 31, 2023 | Study suggests world is warming faster than previously expected |  Noah Diffenbaugh comments on the possibility of crossing different climate thresholds. 

Scientific American  | Feb 1, 2023 |  AI Predicts Warming Will Surpass 1.5 C in a Decade  |  Noah Diffenbaugh on the meaning of his study's results. 

The Hill  | Feb 1, 2023 | Society isn’t changing fast enough to stop climate change: study |  Noah Diffenbaugh discusses how realistics different climate targets are. 

NBC Bay Area  | Feb 1, 2023 | Stanford Study Finds Earth on Cusp of Global Warming Tipping Points |  Diffenbaugh interviewed about the impact of potential future actions.

Futurism  | Feb 2, 2023 | Global warming is worse than we thought, AI tells scientists |  The complexities and meaning of Diffenbaugh's study are discussed.   

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News | September 14, 2023

Nasa announces summer 2023 hottest on record.

Summer of 2023 was Earth’s hottest since global records began in 1880, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

The months of June, July, and August combined were 0.41 degrees Fahrenheit (0.23 degrees Celsius) warmer than any other summer in NASA’s record, and 2.1 degrees F (1.2 C) warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980. August alone was 2.2 F (1.2 C) warmer than the average. June through August is considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

This new record comes as exceptional heat swept across much of the world, exacerbating deadly wildfires in Canada and Hawaii, and searing heat waves in South America, Japan, Europe, and the U.S., while likely contributing to severe rainfall in Italy, Greece, and Central Europe.

“Summer 2023’s record-setting temperatures aren’t just a set of numbers – they result in dire real-world consequences. From sweltering temperatures in Arizona and across the country, to wildfires across Canada, and extreme flooding in Europe and Asia, extreme weather is threatening lives and livelihoods around the world,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “The impacts of climate change are a threat to our planet and future generations, threats that NASA and the Biden-Harris Administration are tackling head on.”

NASA assembles its temperature record, known as GISTEMP, from surface air temperature data acquired by tens of thousands of meteorological stations, as well as sea surface temperature data from ship- and buoy-based instruments. This raw data is analyzed using methods that account for the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and for urban heating effects that could skew the calculations.

The analysis calculates temperature anomalies rather than absolute temperature. A temperature anomaly shows how far the temperature has departed from the 1951 to 1980 base average.

“Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures , fueled in part by the return of El Niño, were largely responsible for the summer’s record warmth,” said Josh Willis, climate scientist and oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (and higher sea levels) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

The record-setting summer of 2023 continues a long-term trend of warming. Scientific observations and analyses made over decades by NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and other international institutions have shown this warming has been driven primarily by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, natural El Niño events in the Pacific pump extra warmth into the global atmosphere and often correlate with the warmest years on record.

“With background warming and marine heat waves that have been creeping up on us for decades, this El Niño shot us over the hump for setting all kinds of records,” Willis said. “The heat waves that we experience now are longer, they’re hotter, and they’re more punishing. The atmosphere can also hold more water now, and when it’s hot and humid, it’s even harder for the human body to regulate its temperature.”

Willis and other scientists expect to see the biggest impacts of El Niño in February, March, and April 2024. El Niño is associated with the weakening of easterly trade winds and the movement of warm water from the western Pacific toward the western coast of the Americas. The phenomenon can have widespread effects, often bringing cooler, wetter conditions to the U.S. Southwest and drought to countries in the western Pacific, such as Indonesia and Australia.

“Unfortunately, climate change is happening. Things that we said would come to pass are coming to pass,” said Gavin Schmidt, climate scientist and director of GISS. “And it will get worse if we continue to emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into our atmosphere.”

NASA’s full temperature data set and the complete methodology used for the temperature calculation and its uncertainties are available online.

GISS is a NASA laboratory managed by the Earth Sciences Division of the agency’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The laboratory is affiliated with Columbia University’s Earth Institute and School of Engineering and Applied Science in New York.

For additional figures and maps related to this announcement, visit:

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/14407

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Essay on Global Warming

• Updated on  
• Nov 23, 2023

Being able to write an essay is an integral part of mastering any language. Essays form an integral part of many academic and scholastic exams like the SAT , and UPSC amongst many others. It is a crucial evaluative part of English proficiency tests as well like IELTS , TOEFL , etc. Major essays are meant to emphasize public issues of concern that can have significant consequences on the world. To understand the concept of Global Warming and its causes and effects, we must first examine the many factors that influence the planet’s temperature and what this implies for the world’s future. Here’s an unbiased look at the essay on Global Warming and other essential related topics.

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Since the industrial and scientific revolutions, Earth’s resources have been gradually depleted. Furthermore, the start of the world’s population’s exponential expansion is particularly hard on the environment. Simply put, as the population’s need for consumption grows, so does the use of natural resources , as well as the waste generated by that consumption.

Climate change has been one of the most significant long-term consequences of this. Climate change is more than just the rise or fall of global temperatures; it also affects rain cycles, wind patterns, cyclone frequencies, sea levels, and other factors. It has an impact on all major life groupings on the planet.

Also Read: World Population Day

What is Global Warming?

Global warming is the unusually rapid increase in Earth’s average surface temperature over the past century, primarily due to the greenhouse gases released by people burning fossil fuels . The greenhouse gases consist of methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, carbon dioxide, water vapour, and chlorofluorocarbons. The weather prediction has been becoming more complex with every passing year, with seasons more indistinguishable, and the general temperatures hotter. The number of hurricanes, cyclones, droughts, floods, etc., has risen steadily since the onset of the 21st century. The supervillain behind all these changes is Global Warming. The name is quite self-explanatory; it means the rise in the temperature of the Earth.

Also Read: What is a Natural Disaster?

According to recent studies, many scientists believe the following are the primary four causes of global warming:

• Deforestation 
• Greenhouse emissions
• Carbon emissions per capita

Extreme global warming is causing natural disasters , which can be seen all around us. One of the causes of global warming is the extreme release of greenhouse gases that become trapped on the earth’s surface, causing the temperature to rise. Similarly, volcanoes contribute to global warming by spewing excessive CO2 into the atmosphere.

The increase in population is one of the major causes of Global Warming. This increase in population also leads to increased air pollution . Automobiles emit a lot of CO2, which remains in the atmosphere. This increase in population is also causing deforestation, which contributes to global warming.

The earth’s surface emits energy into the atmosphere in the form of heat, keeping the balance with the incoming energy. Global warming depletes the ozone layer, bringing about the end of the world. There is a clear indication that increased global warming will result in the extinction of all life on Earth’s surface.

Also Read: Land, Soil, Water, Natural Vegetation, and Wildlife Resources

Of course, industries and multinational conglomerates emit more carbon than the average citizen. Nonetheless, activism and community effort are the only viable ways to slow the worsening effects of global warming. Furthermore, at the state or government level, world leaders must develop concrete plans and step-by-step programmes to ensure that no further harm is done to the environment in general.

Although we are almost too late to slow the rate of global warming, finding the right solution is critical. Everyone, from individuals to governments, must work together to find a solution to Global Warming. Some of the factors to consider are pollution control, population growth, and the use of natural resources.

One very important contribution you can make is to reduce your use of plastic. Plastic is the primary cause of global warming, and recycling it takes years. Another factor to consider is deforestation, which will aid in the control of global warming. More tree planting should be encouraged to green the environment. Certain rules should also govern industrialization. Building industries in green zones that affect plants and species should be prohibited.

Also Read: Essay on Pollution

Global warming is a real problem that many people want to disprove to gain political advantage. However, as global citizens, we must ensure that only the truth is presented in the media.

This decade has seen a significant impact from global warming. The two most common phenomena observed are glacier retreat and arctic shrinkage. Glaciers are rapidly melting. These are clear manifestations of climate change.

Another significant effect of global warming is the rise in sea level. Flooding is occurring in low-lying areas as a result of sea-level rise. Many countries have experienced extreme weather conditions. Every year, we have unusually heavy rain, extreme heat and cold, wildfires, and other natural disasters.

Similarly, as global warming continues, marine life is being severely impacted. This is causing the extinction of marine species as well as other problems. Furthermore, changes are expected in coral reefs, which will face extinction in the coming years. These effects will intensify in the coming years, effectively halting species expansion. Furthermore, humans will eventually feel the negative effects of Global Warming.

Also Read: Concept of Sustainable Development

Sample Essays on Global Warming

Here are some sample essays on Global Warming:

Global Warming is caused by the increase of carbon dioxide levels in the earth’s atmosphere and is a result of human activities that have been causing harm to our environment for the past few centuries now. Global Warming is something that can’t be ignored and steps have to be taken to tackle the situation globally. The average temperature is constantly rising by 1.5 degrees Celsius over the last few years. The best method to prevent future damage to the earth, cutting down more forests should be banned and Afforestation should be encouraged. Start by planting trees near your homes and offices, participate in events, and teach the importance of planting trees. It is impossible to undo the damage but it is possible to stop further harm.

Also Read: Social Forestry

Over a long period, it is observed that the temperature of the earth is increasing. This affected wildlife , animals, humans, and every living organism on earth. Glaciers have been melting, and many countries have started water shortages, flooding, and erosion and all this is because of global warming. No one can be blamed for global warming except for humans. Human activities such as gases released from power plants, transportation, and deforestation have increased gases such as carbon dioxide, CFCs, and other pollutants in the earth’s atmosphere. The main question is how can we control the current situation and build a better world for future generations. It starts with little steps by every individual. Start using cloth bags made from sustainable materials for all shopping purposes, instead of using high-watt lights use energy-efficient bulbs, switch off the electricity, don’t waste water, abolish deforestation and encourage planting more trees. Shift the use of energy from petroleum or other fossil fuels to wind and solar energy. Instead of throwing out the old clothes donate them to someone so that it is recycled. Donate old books, don’t waste paper.  Above all, spread awareness about global warming. Every little thing a person does towards saving the earth will contribute in big or small amounts. We must learn that 1% effort is better than no effort. Pledge to take care of Mother Nature and speak up about global warming.

Also Read: Types of Water Pollution

Global warming isn’t a prediction, it is happening! A person denying it or unaware of it is in the most simple terms complicit. Do we have another planet to live on? Unfortunately, we have been bestowed with this one planet only that can sustain life yet over the years we have turned a blind eye to the plight it is in. Global warming is not an abstract concept but a global phenomenon occurring ever so slowly even at this moment. Global Warming is a phenomenon that is occurring every minute resulting in a gradual increase in the Earth’s overall climate. Brought about by greenhouse gases that trap the solar radiation in the atmosphere, global warming can change the entire map of the earth, displacing areas, flooding many countries, and destroying multiple lifeforms. Extreme weather is a direct consequence of global warming but it is not an exhaustive consequence. There are virtually limitless effects of global warming which are all harmful to life on earth. The sea level is increasing by 0.12 inches per year worldwide. This is happening because of the melting of polar ice caps because of global warming. This has increased the frequency of floods in many lowland areas and has caused damage to coral reefs. The Arctic is one of the worst-hit areas affected by global warming. Air quality has been adversely affected and the acidity of the seawater has also increased causing severe damage to marine life forms. Severe natural disasters are brought about by global warming which has had dire effects on life and property. As long as mankind produces greenhouse gases, global warming will continue to accelerate. The consequences are felt at a much smaller scale which will increase to become drastic shortly. The power to save the day lies in the hands of humans, the need is to seize the day. Energy consumption should be reduced on an individual basis. Fuel-efficient cars and other electronics should be encouraged to reduce the wastage of energy sources. This will also improve air quality and reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Global warming is an evil that can only be defeated when fought together. It is better late than never. If we all take steps today, we will have a much brighter future tomorrow. Global warming is the bane of our existence and various policies have come up worldwide to fight it but that is not enough. The actual difference is made when we work at an individual level to fight it. Understanding its import now is crucial before it becomes an irrevocable mistake. Exterminating global warming is of utmost importance and each one of us is as responsible for it as the next.  

Always hear about global warming everywhere, but do we know what it is? The evil of the worst form, global warming is a phenomenon that can affect life more fatally. Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s temperature as a result of various human activities. The planet is gradually getting hotter and threatening the existence of lifeforms on it. Despite being relentlessly studied and researched, global warming for the majority of the population remains an abstract concept of science. It is this concept that over the years has culminated in making global warming a stark reality and not a concept covered in books. Global warming is not caused by one sole reason that can be curbed. There are multifarious factors that cause global warming most of which are a part of an individual’s daily existence. Burning of fuels for cooking, in vehicles, and for other conventional uses, a large amount of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, and methane amongst many others is produced which accelerates global warming. Rampant deforestation also results in global warming as lesser green cover results in an increased presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is a greenhouse gas.  Finding a solution to global warming is of immediate importance. Global warming is a phenomenon that has to be fought unitedly. Planting more trees can be the first step that can be taken toward warding off the severe consequences of global warming. Increasing the green cover will result in regulating the carbon cycle. There should be a shift from using nonrenewable energy to renewable energy such as wind or solar energy which causes less pollution and thereby hinder the acceleration of global warming. Reducing energy needs at an individual level and not wasting energy in any form is the most important step to be taken against global warming. The warning bells are tolling to awaken us from the deep slumber of complacency we have slipped into. Humans can fight against nature and it is high time we acknowledged that. With all our scientific progress and technological inventions, fighting off the negative effects of global warming is implausible. We have to remember that we do not inherit the earth from our ancestors but borrow it from our future generations and the responsibility lies on our shoulders to bequeath them a healthy planet for life to exist. 

Also Read: Essay on Disaster Management

One good action in a day is to combat the heat.

Global Warming and Climate Change are two sides of the same coin. Both are interrelated with each other and are two issues of major concern worldwide. Greenhouse gases released such as carbon dioxide, CFCs, and other pollutants in the earth’s atmosphere cause Global Warming which leads to climate change. Black holes have started to form in the ozone layer that protects the earth from harmful ultraviolet rays. Human activities have created climate change and global warming. Industrial waste and fumes are the major contributors to global warming. Another factor affecting is the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and also one of the reasons for climate change.  Global warming has resulted in shrinking mountain glaciers in Antarctica, Greenland, and the Arctic and causing climate change. Switching from the use of fossil fuels to energy sources like wind and solar. When buying any electronic appliance buy the best quality with energy savings stars. Don’t waste water and encourage rainwater harvesting in your community. 

Also Read: Essay on Air Pollution

Writing an effective essay needs skills that few people possess and even fewer know how to implement. While writing an essay can be an assiduous task that can be unnerving at times, some key pointers can be inculcated to draft a successful essay. These involve focusing on the structure of the essay, planning it out well, and emphasizing crucial details. Mentioned below are some pointers that can help you write better structure and more thoughtful essays that will get across to your readers:

• Prepare an outline for the essay to ensure continuity and relevance and no break in the structure of the essay
• Decide on a thesis statement that will form the basis of your essay. It will be the point of your essay and help readers understand your contention
• Follow the structure of an introduction, a detailed body followed by a conclusion so that the readers can comprehend the essay in a particular manner without any dissonance.
• Make your beginning catchy and include solutions in your conclusion to make the essay insightful and lucrative to read
• Reread before putting it out and add your flair to the essay to make it more personal and thereby unique and intriguing for readers  

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Ans. Both natural and man-made factors contribute to global warming. The natural one also contains methane gas, volcanic eruptions, and greenhouse gases. Deforestation , mining , livestock raising, burning fossil fuels, and other man-made causes are next.

Ans. The government and the general public can work together to stop global warming. Trees must be planted more often, and deforestation must be prohibited. Auto usage needs to be curbed, and recycling needs to be promoted.

Ans. Switching to renewable energy sources , adopting sustainable farming, transportation, and energy methods, and conserving water and other natural resources.

We hope this blog gave you an idea about how to write and present an essay on global warming that puts forth your opinions. The skill of writing an essay comes in handy when appearing for standardized language tests . Thinking of taking one soon? Leverage Edu provides the best online test prep for the same via Leverage Live . Register today to know more!

Digvijay Singh

Having 2+ years of experience in educational content writing, withholding a Bachelor's in Physical Education and Sports Science and a strong interest in writing educational content for students enrolled in domestic and foreign study abroad programmes. I believe in offering a distinct viewpoint to the table, to help students deal with the complexities of both domestic and foreign educational systems. Through engaging storytelling and insightful analysis, I aim to inspire my readers to embark on their educational journeys, whether abroad or at home, and to make the most of every learning opportunity that comes their way.

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This was really a good essay on global warming… There has been used many unic words..and I really liked it!!!Seriously I had been looking for a essay about Global warming just like this…

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I want to learn how to write essay writing so I joined this page.This page is very useful for everyone.

Hi, we are glad that we could help you to write essays. We have a beginner’s guide to write essays ( https://leverageedu.com/blog/essay-writing/ ) and we think this might help you.

It is not good , to have global warming in our earth .So we all have to afforestation program on all the world.

thank you so much

Very educative , helpful and it is really going to strength my English knowledge to structure my essay in future

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Global warming is the increase in 𝓽𝓱𝓮 ᴀᴠᴇʀᴀɢᴇ ᴛᴇᴍᴘᴇʀᴀᴛᴜʀᴇs ᴏғ ᴇᴀʀᴛʜ🌎 ᴀᴛᴍᴏsᴘʜᴇʀᴇ

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The global mean surface temperature is widely studied to monitor climate change. A current debate centers around whether there has been a recent (post-1970s) surge/acceleration in the warming rate. This paper addresses whether an acceleration in the warming rate is detectable from a statistical perspective. We use changepoint models, which are statistical techniques specifically designed for identifying structural changes in time series. Four global mean surface temperature records over 1850-2023 are scrutinized within. Our results show limited evidence for a warming surge; in most surface temperature time series, no change in the warming rate beyond the 1970s is detected. As such, we estimate minimum changes in the warming trend for a surge to be detectable in the near future.

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• Global Warming Essay

Essay on Global Warming

The last few decades have been monumental when it comes to technological development. Humans have developed systems and machines that make our lives easier. Especially during the early modern period from the early 16th century to as far as the late 18the century, also commonly referred to as “The Scientific Revolution” or “The Enlightenment”, modern technology leapt ahead in development in such a short time frame compared to all of history.

However, with the development of society, there has been a severe detriment to the quality of Earth’s environment. One of the most massive threats to the condition of the planet is climate change. Inadequate research and reckless misuse of natural resources are some of the core reasons for the deteriorating condition of the planet.

To understand the concept of Global Warming and its causes and effects, we need to take an in-depth look into many factors that affect the temperature of the planet and what that means for the future of the world. Here is an objective look at the topic of Global Warming and other important related topics.

What is Climate Change?

Ever since the industrial and scientific revolution, Earth is slowly being used up for its resources. Moreover, the onset of the exponential increase in the world’s population is also very taxing on the environment. 

Simply put, as the need for consumption of the population increases, both the utilisation of natural resources and the waste generated from the use of said resources have also increased massively. 

One of the main results of this over the many years has become climate change. Climate change is not just the rise or fall of temperature of different areas of the world; it is also a change in the rain cycles, wind patterns, cyclone frequencies, sea levels, etc. It affects all major life groups on the planet in some way or the other.  

What is Global Warming?

Global Warming is often considered an effect of Climate change. Global Warming is the rapid increase in the temperature of the Earth’s environment that is causing many life-threatening issues to arise.

Global Warming is a dangerous effect on our environment that we are facing these days. Rapid industrialization, increase in the population growth and pollution are causing a rise in Global Warming. Global Warming refers to the increase in the average temperature of the earth's surface during the last century. One of the reasons why Global Warming is dangerous is because it disturbs the overall ecology of the planet. This results in floods, famine, cyclones and other issues. There are many causes and results of this warming and is a danger for the existence of life on earth.

The sign of Global Warming is already visible with many natural phenomena happening around globally, affecting each living species.

Here is some data that can help to give a more precise understanding of the reality of Global Warming in the last few years:

On average, the world’s temperature is about 1.5°C higher than during the start of the industrial revolution in the late 1700s. That may not seem a lot to you, but that is an average estimate. This number is only increasing. Many parts of the world face far more severe changes in temperature that affect the planet’s overall health.

In 1950, the world’s CO 2 emissions were at 6 billion tonnes which had quadrupled in volume until 1990, just 40 years later to 22 billion tonnes. Not only that, unchecked CO 2 emissions today have reached a whopping 35 billion tonnes.

The most evident causes of Global Warming are industrialization, urbanization, deforestation, and sophisticated human activities. These human activities have led to an increase in the emission of Greenhouse Gases, including CO₂, Nitrous Oxide, Methane, and others.

Causes of Global Warming

A variety of reasons causes Global Warming. Some of which can be controlled personally by individuals but others are only expected to be solved by communities and the world leaders and activists at the global level.

Many scientists believe the main four reasons for Global Warming, according to recent studies, are:

Greenhouse gases

Deforestation

Per capita carbon emissions

Global Warming is certainly an alarming situation, which is causing a significant impact on life existence. Extreme Global Warming is resulting in natural calamities, which is quite evident happening around. One of the reasons behind Global Warming is the extreme release of greenhouse gases stuck on the earth surface, resulting in the temperature increase.

Similarly, volcanoes are also leading to Global Warming because they spew too much CO₂ in the air. One of the significant causes behind Global Warming is the increase in the population. This increase in the population also results in air pollution. Automobiles release a lot of CO₂, which remains stuck in the earth.

This increase in the population is also leading to deforestation, which further results in Global Warming. More and more trees are being cut, increasing the concentration of CO₂.

The greenhouse is the natural process where the sunlight passes through the area, thus warming the earth's surface. The earth surface releases energy in the form of heat in the atmosphere maintaining the balance with the incoming energy. Global Warming depletes the ozone layer leading to the doom's day.

There is a clear indication that the increase in Global Warming will lead to the complete extinction of life from the earth surface.

Solution for Global Warming

Global Warming can not be blamed on individuals; however, it can be tackled and maintained from worsening starting at the individual level. Of course, industries and multinational conglomerates have higher carbon emissions levels than an average citizen. Still, activism and community effort are the only feasible ways to control the worsening state of Global Warming.

Additionally, at the state or government level, world leaders need to create concrete plans and step programmes to ensure that no further harm is being caused to the environment in general. 

Although we are almost late in slowing down the Global Warming rate, it is crucial to find the right solution. From individuals to governments, everyone has to work upon a solution for Global Warming. Controlling pollution, population and use of natural resources are some of the factors to consider. Switching over to the electric and hybrid car is the best way to bring down the carbon dioxide.

As a citizen, it is best to switch over to the hybrid car and to use public transport. This will reduce pollution and congestion. Another significant contribution you can make is to minimize the use of plastic. Plastic is the primary cause of Global Warming taking years to recycle.

Deforestation is another thing to consider that will help in controlling Global Warming. Planting of more trees should be encouraged to make the environment go green.

Industrialization should be under certain norms. The building of industries should be banned in green zones affecting plants and species. Hefty penalties should be levied on such sectors contributing towards Global Warming.

Effects of Global Warming

Global Warming is a real problem that many want to prove as a hoax for their political benefit. However, as aware citizens of the world, we must make sure only the truth is presented in the media.

Various parts of the environment, both flora and fauna, are directly adversely affected by the damages caused by Global Warming. Wildlife being in danger is ultimately a serious threat to the survival of humanity as we know it and its future.

The effect of Global Warming is widely seen in this decade. Glacier retreat and arctic shrinkage are the two common phenomena seen. Glaciers are melting in a fast way. These are pure examples of climate change.

Rise in sea level is another significant effect of Global Warming. This sea-level rise is leading to floods in low-lying areas. Extreme weather conditions are witnessed in many countries. Unseasonal rainfall, extreme heat and cold, wildfires and others are common every year. The number of these cases is increasing. This will indeed imbalance the ecosystem bringing the result of the extinction of species.

Similarly, marine life is also widely getting affected due to the increase in Global Warming. This is resulting in the death of marine species and other issues. Moreover, changes are expected in coral reefs, which are going to face the end in coming years.

These effects will take a steep rise in coming years, bringing the expansion of species to a halt. Moreover, humans too will witness the negative impact of Global Warming in the end.

FAQs on Global Warming Essay

1. What Global Warming will Cause?

Global warming will have a massive impact on our earth in the end. Flood, extreme weather conditions, famine, wildfire and many more will be the result. There will be hotter days, which will also increase the wildfire and famine. In the past years, many meteorological bureaus have added purple and magenta to the forecast.

Another impact of global warming will be rising sea levels. Increased ocean temperatures will lead to the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Increase in the sea level will lead to floods in many low-lying areas.

The overall ecosystem of nature will be an imbalance. This will affect nature in the long-term.

2. Why Does Global Warming Happen?

There are many reasons for the cause of global warming. There are certain gases in the atmosphere called greenhouse gases. The energy then radiates from the surface; the greenhouse gases trap longwave radiation. We humans have added to the atmospheric blanket of greenhouse affecting the living species. Warming of air, oceans, and land is how global warming happens.

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David Wallace-Wells

The godfather of climate science turns up the heat.

By David Wallace-Wells

Opinion writer

It is, James Hansen says, worse than you think.

In a paper published on Thursday and much debated among his colleagues since it was first posted as a preprint last December, Hansen, known as the godfather of climate science, and a group of like-minded colleagues made several alarming claims that all point in the same direction: that the world’s climate is significantly more sensitive to carbon emissions than scientists have acknowledged or the public appreciates, and that as a result, even those most focused on climate risks have been systematically underestimating how much warming the planet is likely to see over the next couple of decades.

The more ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement, to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, is “deader than a doornail,” Hansen said in introducing the paper. The agreement’s less ambitious goal, to which the signatories formally agreed, limiting warming to less than two degrees Celsius, is on its deathbed.

The paper, “Global Warming in the Pipeline,” includes long passages of paleoclimate analysis and bursts of sharp big-picture framing, along with high-minded alarm raising and some personal score settling.

“We would be damned fools and bad scientists if we didn’t expect an acceleration of global warming,” he has said in describing its central findings. “One way to deal with this is just to wait,” he told me, since over time, the climate itself will answer our questions about what warming we should have expected. “But in this case, if we do that, young people are screwed. We have got to get this problem understood, or young people are in trouble. We need to get it understood as soon as possible.”

Hansen’s 1988 appearance before a Senate committee conventionally marks the beginning of the era for climate alarm, when many Americans started worrying about global warming and why their leaders were doing so little about it. But in recent years he has played a lonelier role — joining climate protests and getting arrested well before scientists of his stature felt comfortable doing the same, advocating an aggressive push into nuclear energy before its recent quasi-embrace by environmentalists and continuing to advocate a carbon price even after most activists and policy wonks decided the idea was impractical or ineffective or some combination of the two.

On the scientific front as well, Hansen, now 82, has been plotting a proudly independent course, warning again and again that warming would be worse than expected and that the scientific community had placed too much emphasis on climate models rather than direct observation and emphasizing what he has long called the “Faustian bargain” the world has made with pollution by aerosols like sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide, which cool the planet even though they are produced largely by the same processes that emit the carbon that warms it.

This process is already embedded in conventional modeling of our climate future. But the size of the effect is not clear, in part because several decades ago, Hansen lost an argument that NASA should monitor the aerosol effect more directly after a first attempt failed . The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gives a median estimate of about 0.5 degrees Celsius of cooling — significant, though small enough that a drop in its impact could be reliably offset by rapid reductions in methane, another greenhouse gas. But the uncertainty range is much higher for aerosol cooling than for other, more widely measured climate inputs, and the high end of that estimated range is above a full degree of cooling.

In the “Pipeline” paper, Hansen gives a higher estimate still: that aerosols are cooling the planet by perhaps 1.5 degrees Celsius. And because the world is moving away from air pollution much faster than it is moving away from carbon emissions, he suggests that the bill for that Faustian bargain is about to come due and that as a result, the rate of warming will grow by 50 to 100 percent over the next few decades.

These are only two of a number of contested claims the “Pipeline” paper puts forward; others are that a large sea-level rise this century will be much greater than the I.P.C.C. assumes and that a collapse of one of the oceans’ major circulation systems is possible this century, much sooner than most believe.

In the year since it was first posted as a preprint, the paper has generated considerable skepticism and criticism from many fellow scientists, who invariably praise Hansen in principle before raising questions about his new paper. On the rhetorical side, critics have raised issues with the phrase “in the pipeline,” pointing out that recent research suggests that, contrary to earlier conventional wisdom, when carbon emissions stop, most warming will, too, and in short order.

And while some scientists have also taken issue with the paper’s claim that warming is accelerating, others, including the authors of an authoritative “state of the climate” review, have also detected an acceleration . And while the paper’s warming timeline has attracted considerable attention — predicting that we may cross the 1.5 degree threshold in the next few years and the two degree threshold in the next few decades — others have pointed out that those predictions are, in fact, quite close to the I.P.C.C.’s best guesses for what current policy emission trajectories will yield.

The headline proposition of “Pipeline” concerns something called equilibrium climate sensitivity, often called E.C.S., an estimate of how much the planet would warm if global carbon dioxide levels double from the preindustrial average. To this point, we have elevated those levels by almost exactly 50 percent. For decades, the central estimate for E.C.S. has been three degrees Celsius ; double carbon dioxide, and you get three degrees of warming. Working primarily from a new understanding of the cooling dynamics between ice ages, Hansen and his co-authors calculate it as 4.8 degrees Celsius.

At first blush, this looks like a major revision. But all of those estimates come with notoriously large uncertainty ranges, and the 4.8 degree estimate in “Pipeline” falls just within or just outside many of those uncertainty ranges. For instance, one authoritative review , published in 2020, estimated with 90 percent confidence that E.C.S. was between 2.3 and 4.7 degrees Celsius. The most recent I.P.C.C. report gave a 90 percent range of three to five degrees Celsius . And taking that range seriously means taking seriously the possibility that Hansen’s alarming new estimate is right — perhaps even rather mainstream.

This all may sound quite technical, but if the world decarbonizes pretty rapidly, different climate sensitivities could mean the difference between two degrees Celsius of warming and three, and if we decarbonize more slowly, that could make the difference between three and four. Given that scientists have taken care, over the past decade, to emphasize that every tenth of a degree matters, uncertainties of this scale surely matter enormously.

The debate also teaches that for all we have advanced our understanding of the earth in recent decades, an awful lot about the climate future remains unsure. Over the decades, climate scientists have talked about these risks in a variety of ways, invoking the precautionary principle or emphasizing the fat-tail risks of unlikely catastrophic surprises. Others have used a more colorful phrase to describe these potential risks: the monsters behind the door .

An earlier version of this article erroneously included a substance among aerosols that cool the planet. It is not the case that black carbon, or soot, reduces global temperatures.

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Energy industry methane emissions rise close to record in 2023

Methane emissions from the energy sector approached record highs last year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned.

In a report released on Wednesday, the global watchdog said the fossil fuel industry’s emissions of the potent greenhouse gas, responsible for about 30 percent of global warming, reached more than 120 million metric tonnes in 2023. That put emissions close to the record set in 2019, despite the sector having promised to use freely available technology to reduce their levels.

Despite pledges made by the oil and gas industry to bring down large-scale emission spikes by plugging infrastructure leaks, they jumped by 50 percent last year compared with 2022. One disastrous well blowout in Kazakhstan, recorded by satellites, lasted more than 200 days.

The increase also came despite the availability of technology capable of curbing pollution at virtually no cost, said the Paris-based agency. Some 40 percent of the emissions recorded in 2023 “could have been avoided at no net cost” using tried and tested methods, said IEA energy expert Christophe McGlade.

Oil and gas firms have pledged to slash their methane emissions by 2050, but their commitments have not been backed up by detailed plans. Reduction of methane, second only to carbon dioxide for its contribution to rising temperatures, is essential to meeting international targets on climate change.

“Emissions of methane from fossil fuel operations remain unacceptably high… There is no reason for emissions to remain as high as they are,” said IEA chief energy economist Tim Gould.

He expressed hope that 2024 “could mark a turning point” if countries and fossil fuel firms honour their promises by creating concrete policies to curb pollution.

While some 40 percent of methane is released from natural sources, human activities are responsible for the rest. In the energy sector, methane leaks from energy infrastructure, such as gas pipelines, and from deliberate releases during maintenance.

Two-thirds of the emissions in 2023 were from just 10 countries, including China’s coal industry and the United States’ gas sector, with Russia not far behind.

Impact of global warming and building renovation on the heat demand and district heating capacity: Case of the city of Riga

• Ziemele, Jelena
• Gendelis, Stanislavs
• Dace, Elina

Changes in weather conditions due to global warming affect the energy demand of buildings, resulting in changes in the installed heat capacity of district heating systems. The study provides a methodology for assessing the potential effects of climate change in combination with renovation of existing building stock on building heat demand. The system dynamics approach was used for investigation of the interlinkages and causality of energy efficiency, global warming, and total installed heat source capacity. Variations in the heating load of a district heating system due to improvements in building energy efficiency were studied in combination with three climate change scenarios. The optimal balance point between investment at the heat source side and at the heat consumers side was also investigated. The interaction of global warming, building heat demand and installed capacity of the district heating system was identified by the levelized investment approach. The study shows that global warming directly influences the heating degree-days and reduces the heat demand in the case study considered (part of the Riga city). A significantly higher impact on heat demand could be achieved by implementation of building renovation, however the funding available for this purpose is insufficient in the studied case.

• District heating;
• 4th generation district heating;
• Climate change;
• System dynamics;
• Building energy efficiency;
• Building renovation;
• Heating energy