research paper on forex market

A tightening of U.S. monetary policy sets the circle in motion, generating an appreciation of the dollar. Given the structural features of the global economy, tighter policy and an appreciation of the dollar lead to a contraction in manufacturing activity globally, led by a relatively larger decline in emerging market economies. The resulting contraction in global (ex-U.S.) manufacturing will spill back to the U.S. manufacturing sector due to the reduction in foreign final demand for U.S. goods. These same forces will also lead to a drop in commodity prices and world trade. In the final turn of our mechanism, given that the U.S. economy is relatively less exposed to global developments, the contraction of global manufacturing and global trade is associated with a further strengthening of the dollar, reinforcing the circle.

Here’s the concept illustrated in a chart:

Why does it work that way? The researchers argued that two key “assymetries” lie behind the Imperial Circle.

First, global use of the dollar DXY, -0.27% in the international monetary system greatly exceeds the relative size of the U.S. economy, as shown in the chart below:

The dollar, they noted, is the dominant invoicing currency in international trade, which serves to amplify the impact of dollar movements on global manufacturing. It’s also the dominant currency in international banking. And, they noted, previous research has shown a strong dollar tends to reduce the availability of dollar financing needed to support supply-chain linkages.

The second asymmetry is that the U.S. economy is less exposed to movements in global trade than its trading partners. Over the last 50 years, exports as a share of gross domestic product has risen sharply, particularly in the eurozone and China. In the U.S., trade as a percentage of GDP has remained relatively lower and stationary over the same period.

The researchers summarize: “the hegemonic role of the dollar in international trade and finance has expanded, while the exposure of the U.S. economy to the global economy has been relatively stagnant. This dichotomy creates the conditions for the dollar to act as a self-fulfilling procyclical force.”

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About the Author

William Watts is MarketWatch markets editor. In addition to managing markets coverage, he writes about stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, including oil. He also writes about global macro issues and trading strategies. During his time at MarketWatch, Watts has served in key roles in the Frankfurt, London, New York and Washington, D.C., newsrooms.

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