food security in the philippines essay

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Food security in PH: A task for everyone

Farmers, food processors, traders and consumers continue to face food security problems.

A summit to achieve common food security framework is deemed necessary. A consensus may not be achieved initially but a summit could bring stakeholders to a better understanding of the situation from different perspectives.

We need to engage in dialogue in action, one that would involve the participation of many stakeholders and the honest examination of outcomes of policies. This effort may not conclude in one administration but may have to be continued by the next.

We should advance the conversation as far as we can but realize that there may be issues that need to be resolved in the future.

This brief paper will cover four points:

• The present food insecure situation
• A common understanding of food security
• Questions about the food security framework
• Immediate steps to shore up food security

Hunger and food insecurity

People are hungry. Lack of access to food among poor Filipinos is on stark display every day by the long lines to community pantries.

The situation confirms the Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey report that hunger incidence during the fourth quarter of 2020 doubled to 21.1 percent from 9.3 percent in 2019, with the incidence of severe hunger rising more sharply from 1.4 percent to 5 percent in the same period.

In actual numbers, some 4 million households went hungry, twice the number in 2019.

The Food and Nutrition Research Institute (FNRI) survey conducted Nov. 3 to Dec. 20, 2020 revealed more distressing results— 62.1 percent, or 6 in 10, households experienced hunger in 2020. FNRI warned of worsening malnutrition that was already, in its 2015 survey, harming nearly a third of all Filipino children under age 5, who were stunted mainly due to lack of nutritious food.

Low-priced National Food Authority rice (P2 per kg and P32 per kg) has disappeared from the market. The price of the most inexpensive commercial rice has risen. Consumers now pay more for the food staple.

While the hunger situation is undeniable, the responses have ranged from genuine  bayanihan  giving to condemnation. However, a number of commendable initiatives from the government and the public have been taken, like:

• Farm produce purchased directly from farmers and distributed through community pantries benefited producers and consumers alike
• Backyard and community food production has been enhanced
• Middle-income consumers have been more open to paying a premium for local produce.

Palay  farmers are suffering due to low prices. Prices at some point in the last two years have dipped to below the average cost of production of P12 per kg.

Some rice millers have become importers, as trading margins have become more attractive than processing  palay  into rice. Not all traders have benefitted from the present system as some complain that they, too, have seen their profits dwindle.

Toward a Common Understanding of Food Security

In his initial draft framework paper, “Towards a Common Understanding of Food Security,” Dr. Cielito Habito, former director general of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), cited the formal definition of food security by the World Food Summit (WFS) and the assessment tool developed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU):

The globally accepted formal definition was adopted in 1996 at the World Food Summit spearheaded by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (UN-FAO): “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.”

Elaborating on this definition, FAO identified four dimensions:

• Food availability is the availability of sufficient quantities of food of appropriate quality, sourced from either domestic production or importation (including food aid).
• Food access is individuals’ ability to acquire appropriate food for a nutritious diet. Critical here is the price of food, alongside individual and family incomes. Access is conditioned by the legal, political, economic and social arrangements of the community in which they live.
• Utilization is adequate diets, clean water, sanitation and health care to reach a state of nutritional wellbeing where all physiological needs are met. This points to the importance of non-food elements in food security.
• Stability implies that a population, household or individual must have access to adequate food at all times to be food secure. They should not risk losing access to food as a consequence of sudden shocks, like economic or climate crisis or cyclical events.

To provide an assessment tool, EIU has been publishing the Global Food Security Index covering 113 countries since 2012. Countries are rated annually based on 59 unique indicators measuring the drivers of food security across both developing and developed countries (EIU 2021).

The index was defined in the three categories of Affordability, Availability and Quality & Safety, with a fourth category on Natural Resources and Resilience added in the 2020 edition. Broadly similar to the FAO characterization, these dimensions are elaborated as:

• Affordability—Measures the ability of consumers to purchase food, their vulnerability to price shocks and the presence of programs and policies to support customers when shocks occur
• Availability—Measures the sufficiency of national food supply, the risk of supply disruption, national capacity to distribute food and research efforts to expand agricultural output
• Quality and Safety—Measures the variety and nutritional quality of average diets, as well as the safety of food
• Natural Resources and Resilience—Assesses a country’s exposure to the impacts of climate change, its susceptibility to natural resource risks and how the country is adapting to these risks.

Finland, Ireland and the Netherlands are the top three on food security. The lowest three are Zambia, Sudan and Yemen. The Philippines is 73rd just above Botswana, Sri Lanka and Nicaragua and trailing Myanmar, Guatemala and India.

Two Philippine laws carried provisions on food security and sufficiency. These are official definitions and declarations that cannot be ignored.

The Republic Act No. 8435, or the Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Act (AFMA), defined food security as:

“Food Security’ refers to the policy objective, plan and strategy of meeting the food requirements of the present and future generations of Filipinos in substantial quantity, ensuring the availability and affordability of food to all, either through local production, or importation, or both based on the country’s existing and potential resources endowment and related production advantages and consistent with the overall national development objectives and policies.  However, sufficiency in rice and white corn should be pursued. ”

In its declaration of policy, AFMA said:

“The State shall promote food security, including sufficiency in our staple food namely rice and white corn. The production of rice and white corn shall be optimized to meet our local consumption and shall be given adequate support by the State.

Another law, Republic Act 11321, or the Sagip Saka Act, stressed the importance of fair returns and a decent living for farmers and fishers as the sustainable way to food security. The law’s declaration of policy states:

“It is the declared policy of the State to achieve sustainable modern agriculture and food security by helping the agricultural and fishing communities to reach their full potential, increasing farmers’ and fishermen’s incomes, and bridging gaps through public-private partnerships, thereby improving their quality of life

“In pursuance of this policy, the State shall strengthen the farmers and fisherfolk enterprise development program by establishing a comprehensive and holistic approach in the formulation, coordination and implementation of enterprise development initiatives, consolidating the roles of different agencies involved in farmers and fisherfolk enterprise development, and intensifying the building of entrepreneurship cultures among farmer and fisherfolk.”

It is clear from these provisions that it is important that both food security and food sufficiency be accepted as guiding principles not to be pitted against each other. Food security is the larger objective but on food staples, sufficiency is to be sought. No timetable is given. It is up to the Executive Branch to work this out.

It is practical, however, to accept three caveats:

• Imports should not be banned, as these may be needed when there are shortfalls and some competition can be helpful. Excessive imports, however, depress prices unduly, causing farmer poverty and discouraging local production. The AFMA indicated openness to importation while in pursuit of sufficiency. Sagip Saka underlines the importance of raising farmers’ and fishers’ incomes.
• Sufficiency should not be pursued at all costs, as food security and agricultural development have many other needs that require budget support.
• Food security requires working on poverty reduction for all sectors, not only those directly involved in food production and distribution. This implies that food security is not the sole responsibility of the Department of Agriculture (DA).

Food security and competitiveness

Competitiveness is achieved incrementally and needs to cover other food items.

Achieving competitiveness in food items is more contentious and has been at the root of the food security and food sufficiency debate.

Food access by individuals and families is determined by food prices and food purchasing power (individual and family incomes), while food availability depends on the capacity of food producers to provide staples and common food items, including vegetables, fruits, fish, eggs, meat, etc.

The debate between food security and food sufficiency has unnecessarily narrowed the understanding and strategy toward availability of and access to food. For example, analysts have tended to trace all food inadequacies to the unresolved debate and to protectionist tendencies.

Likewise, while food inflation is a closely watched indicator, it is inadequate in terms of measuring how well a country is ensuring food for its people.

According to a paper by Raul Montemayor, the expenses on local production should not be used to justify more imports.

“The fact that imports are cheaper is not a sufficient reason for relying on them instead of local production,” he wrote.

“Local production may be more expensive because it is not provided adequate support from government. But it could have the potential to be competitive, given sufficient support,” he said.

“Relying on imports just because they are cheaper will deprive local producers the opportunity to reach that potential. Also, price should not be the only consideration,” Raul wrote.

“Imports may be cheaper at present but could become more expensive or unavailable later (as happened to corn and rice). These risks, and not only comparative prices, should be taken into account in determining the safe and proper level of domestic food sufficiency,” he said.

Protectionism, according to Raul, “was never meant to be an import ban but rather a means to manage and calibrate imports so that local supply deficits could be addressed while preventing excessive surpluses that would unduly depress prices for producers.”

“Local prices do not necessarily have to rise significantly when the domestic market is protected,” he said. “If the entry of imports is managed well, and a way is found so that importers and traders actually pass on the benefits of cheaper imports to consumers, consumer prices will remain stable and could even go down without significantly depressing producer prices.”

Another expert, Gerry Bulatao, said food means much more than rice.

“The food security framework must include other food staples: white corn, camote, cassava, bananas, Adlai,” he wrote in comments for this paper.

“Overconsumption of rice may lead to diabetes. Depressing the demand for rice increases its sufficiency level,” he wrote.

There should be focus, Bulatao wrote, not only on basic production but also millers, traders and consumers.

Production targets, he said, should include vegetables. “Should we not aim for a higher level of sufficiency in mongo, onions and garlic, among others?” he wrote.

This, Bulatao said, should also include fruits which are “excluded from food security.”

Other industries that should be in food security discussions are sugarcane, poultry, livestock and dairy, fisheries, food manufacturing and coconuts.

According to Bulatao, while copra is not considered food, coconuts should be included in a food security framework because of these:

• Since among the factors for food security is affordability, there should be programs for coconut farmers, who are among the poorest in the Philippines. While copra prices had rebounded to P40 per kilo, coconut farmers have seen prices plunge to P6 per kilo and stopped harvesting.
• Land between coconut trees is useful for food production—vegetables, fruits, poultry, livestock, napier grass and other feed stock.
• Coconut-based products can be considered food or raw materials for food—buko, buko chips, coconut water, vinegar, coco sugar, cooking oil, etc.

To understand rice competitiveness better, the long proposed benchmarking study was finally funded by the DA and conducted by PhilRice and IRRI with the results contained in the report “Competitiveness of Philippine Rice in Asia”.

One finding of the study was that the Philippines’ expense on labor in rice production was considerably higher than that in other countries. This reinforced the belief that higher levels of mechanization can bring down the cost of production. It is good that the DA now sets the target for mechanization in terms of horsepower per hectare.

Marketing costs also ranked highly. Addressing these would involve reducing post-harvest losses, improving milling efficiency, modernizing marketing infrastructure (roads, bridges, ports) for agricultural products and ensuring free competition in markets. But other countries employ hidden subsidy that makes their rice cost lower. Comparisons based solely on prices tend to be unfair to Filipino rice farmers.

Making comparisons with other countries based on final figures—on food security, production, price, inflation and so on—is useful. But even more helpful would be to dig deeper and to look at the realities underlying final figures to determine where exactly the Philippines or the sectors are lagging behind, what can be done better, or where progress can be attained faster.

Regular updating of the rice comparative study will help track progress and ensure that compared costs across countries take subsidies and natural endowments into account.

Targeting levels of yield and cost of production for various crops has been recognized as critical in taking steps towards competitiveness. For rice, the proposed target was  Sais-Otso  (yield of 6 metric tons per hectare and P8 per kg as cost of production). This has been achieved in Nueva Ecija. Can it be made the national standard, even as the goal for Nueva Ecija is raised?

The DA has published commodity digests that documented standard yields and costs of various food crops including onions, cassava, cacao, coffee, rice, seaweed. These need to be updated and expanded to cover other crops.

Something similar should be done for poultry and livestock products. Each commodity or product should be subjected to a value chain analysis (VCA), which will serve as a basis for setting production, cost of production, price and income targets. The DA already has a number of these VCAs as part of the implementation of the Philippine Rural Development Project (PRDP).

There is a growing acceptance that food security policies and programs cannot be limited to one administration but must be carried forward by the next.

Rather than the subsequent administration ignoring or denying gains achieved by its predecessor, it is important to build upon the previous leadership’s achievements.

What is important is to ensure an effective feedback mechanism so that all stakeholders—be they farmers, fishers, bureaucrats, scientists, NGO workers, entrepreneurs large and small, bankers and financiers, traders, logistics providers and workers, or consumers—can help identify interventions and approaches that work and don’t work.

The impact of the Rice Tariffication Act needs to be monitored closely to include prevailing  palay  and rice prices in various parts of the country and not simply accept the aggregate figures reported by the Philippine Statistics Authority. This tracking is also being done. Anecdotal evidence can reinforce the findings of studies or be used to raise questions for clarification.

What can be done quickly

Approaches to support services delivery have to include all stakeholders from design to implementation and provide for quick response. There is no perfect delivery system for support services in the agri-fishery sector. Perfection can be approximated but never attained. The most an agency can do is move toward it. Every administration tries to do its best, but there will always be gaps, areas that need improvement.

For example: FIELDS (Fertilizer, Irrigation, Extension, Loans, Dryers and Seeds) represented a comprehensive and integrated package of services under the  Ginintuang Masaganang Ani  program of the Arroyo administration. Until today, these are still among the components of support services. But they have been enhanced over time.

• Fertilizers were subject to centralized procurement. This was decentralized to reduce corruption. A “buy-one, take-two” voucher system involving Irrigators’ associations and farm supply stores has been proposed as a more efficient way to distribute fertilizers to farmers.  (A refinement of this method, which can also be applied to seeds, is to distribute vouchers—similar to SM gift checks—and allow the farmer to purchase his choice of types, brands or varieties and add his own cash if needed.)
• Irrigation has been the domain of the National Irrigation Administration, which is still under the Office of the President, but the Bureau of Soils and Water Management is responsible for small water impounding systems and shallow tube wells.
• Extensionis still the responsibility of the Agriculture Training Institute (ATI), which has further developed its course offerings. Initiatives of TESDA (Technical Education and Skills Development Authority) on courses granting national certificates for agriculture crop production, fish capture and wharf operations are welcome.
• Loans are delivered in various forms to suit target groups and commodities with terms redesigned to include a loyalty scheme that ensures cheaper loans, as farmers establish their reliability as conscientious borrowers. Loan programs build in risk mitigation mechanisms like crop insurance for farmers and guarantee funds for banks.
• Dryersstood for mechanization and led to the subsequent introduction of combine harvesters, reapers, tram lines and other farm machinery. PhilMech has been challenged to increase further its involvement in mechanizing agricultural production to reduce costs.
• Seed development has been the responsibility of PhilRice but under the Rice Tariffication Act, the agency has been asked to ensure proper distribution of seeds and has been promoting seed growing in new areas for faster response in the event of a calamity.

Cutting across the various support services is the Registry System of Basic Sectors in Agriculture (RSBSA) that helps identify and track farmer-beneficiaries. The system needs to be maintained and updated, for it to continue to be useful. It must also involve the barangay so farmers can check whether they are properly listed and initiate inclusion or exclusion processes as needed.

No component of support services is foolproof. Safeguarding against unwanted results requires a steady stream of feedback from the final recipients of the services. Some organizations continue to feel that the DA does not provide sufficient support, while some budget allocations have been found to be underspent.

Encouraging farmers to group themselves into clusters, associations or cooperatives is vital for enhancing participation and improving feedback.

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“Rowers” can be “Steerers,” too, within their scope of responsibility for a particular sector or LGU, and when they give feedback to policymakers and propose solutions to problems they understand best. “Steerers” should be “Rowers” themselves in feeling the pulse of the grassroots and in being grounded, not remaining in the clouds and issuing policies like lightning bolts that may be irrelevant.

The Food Security Summit may also try to prioritize some major interventions beyond direct support services that include:

• Food security requires appropriate infrastructure . The backlog of over 10,000 kilometers of farm-to-market roads (FMRs) should receive support. LGUs and barangays can be encouraged to supply the road network maps for these FMR projects. DA can supply geotagging support.
• Mechanization should encompass the food value chain. It should include promoting and training of service providers to maintain the machines and systematize servicing of individual farms. It should include basic food processing of farm produce and support for food development. The cold chain system and the installation of powdering facilities can be added to existing community fish ports and other production sites.
• Research and developmentthat delivers ground-level results need support . This can refer to applied research and the training of scientists who are oriented to providing crop and product support.  Lagundi , VCO, coco water, blast-frozen fish, bio-diesel are a few examples of products that can be developed further, but how farmers and fishers may benefit beyond being suppliers of raw materials needs to be considered.
• Consolidation of certain activities can enhance productivity and profitability . These may include block farms, shared processing facilities, service provider groups to maintain farm machinery and operate leasing services, consolidated marketing efforts, farm planning and crop scheduling, and more.
• Organic agriculturedeserves space in the food security framework.It need not be embraced as a religion, but its positive impact on the creation of healthful foods and reduction of production costs for certain commodities should be recognized and supported. There is a niche market for these products, and it is growing. Likewise, organic fertilizers and non-synthetic-chemical concoctions used as growth stimulants and natural pesticides should be acknowledged as helpful.
• Setting targets need not mean agreeing on a particular point or number .  The target may be a range of numbers, especially when an agency is not the only entity responsible for creating an outcome. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas sets a target range for inflation. The DA may likewise set a target range for  palay production, cost of production, rice price and farmers’ and fishers’ incomes.
• Linkage to markets is very important. This includes shortening the value chain, allowing farmers to value-add, and connecting them to stable markets.
• Integrated and sustained location-specific interventions. Current initiatives have little impact because they are piecemeal, compartmentalized and not sustained. Thus, the benefits from one intervention get offset by losses due to the absence of other equally important interventions. Plus, many of the interventions are not specifically designed for the problems and priorities of specific areas.

Partnership Needed

It is hoped that the views of farmer organizations, as expressed in this paper and related submissions, will be seriously considered and will be informative for future actions, policies and programs. Active collaboration toward the achievement of Food for All is our desired outcome.

( Editor’s note: Leonardo Q. Montemayor is president of the Federation of Free Farmers. He was agriculture secretary and also board chair of the Philippine Coconut Authority from 2001 to 2002 )

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Is Food Supply Accessible, Affordable, and Stable? The State of Food Security in the Philippines

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Local solutions toward food security

It may seem like a good sign that the Philippines was not identified as among the countries with “the likelihood of further deterioration in acute food insecurity,” based on the Hunger Hot spots Outlook for June to September 2022 of the World Food Programme and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). This, however, does not necessarily mean the absence of food insecurity in the country.

Data from the Department of Science and Technology-Food and Nutrition Research Institute showed that the number of food-insecure Filipino households grew to 64.1 percent in 2019 from 53.9 percent in 2018. Filipinos who could not afford a healthy diet also increased to 75.2 million in 2020 from 74.2 million in 2019 according to the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2022.

Among the significant contributors to food insecurity in the country include inflation, the Russia-Ukraine War, climate change-induced catastrophes, and of course the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Agriculture, food and nutrition security will be among the defining issues of the Philippines this decade and therefore systemic changes are needed to enable effective food systems transformation,” Carlie Labaria, Environment and Natural Resources Sustainable Management Subgroup Leader of the FAO in the Philippines, said during the recent Inquirer Project Rebound webinar.

More effective food supply chain management

The agriculture sector has been hailed as the “backbone of the Philippine economy” yet its fullest potential has not been maximized due to some food system inefficiencies.

According to Ma. Elena Van Tooren, managing director of East-West Seed Foundation, the food supply chain is too long as it takes food products days and weeks to reach consumers, affecting their freshness, accessibility, availability and affordability.

It was noted by Labaria that reforms toward more effective food supply chain management should be implemented, including “investments to modernize transportation and logistical infrastructure.” Shorter food miles with more dispersed distribution points should also be looked into.

Realizing the importance of market linkages, Pamela Castro, program manager and head of nutrition and food security programs of the Pilipinas Shell Foundation, Inc. (PSFI), shared that they initiated the “Ani Para sa Suki” to connect farmers to potential buyers and even the company’s supply chain. During the pandemic, vegetables produced by farmers were sold at selected Shell stations or stores.

This is where urban agriculture comes into play.

According to Simon Villalon, president of Good Greens + Co, supply chains broke during the pandemic, making it difficult for food to reach metropolitan areas. He said that high-producing vertical farms within urban areas will be vital, especially because a large portion of the population is now moving into such places.

Through its urban gardening programs, PLDT-Smart is also encouraging Filipinos to grow their own food.

Technologies and farmer education

Similar to other sectors, the pandemic has compelled the agricultural sector to accelerate its digital transformation, posing adaptive challenges for farmers and fisherfolk.

This prompted PLDT-Smart to launch its capacity-building initiative called Digital Farmers Program, which aims to enhance farmers’ digital knowledge and skills to improve their livelihoods.

“Technology plays an important role in improving production, linking producers with buyers, and just overall improving the lives of our farmers,” said Stephanie Arlino, head of stakeholder management team, corporate communications of PLDT and Smart.

Meanwhile, PSFI’s Integrated Farming Bio-Systems, a program “intended to train farmers and community members on appropriate farming technologies,” was also set in motion.

As one of its major programs, PSFI also established the Shell Training Farms to help increase food production and farmers’ agricultural yield through the demonstration of the latest agricultural technologies and sustainable practices in agriculture.

The role of local governments

Despite being the producers of the food that we eat, farmers are among the hungriest due to their lack of economic capacity to access food.

Arsenio Go Barcelona, president of Harbest Agribusiness Corp., pointed out that food security is a responsibility of local government executives and that they should be more accountable for the state of their constituents.

It is also essential that local governments work together with other public and private organizations to further solve agricultural issues.

Van Tooren has urged each local government to prepare their own food security map by asking these questions: What do they have? What do their neighbors have? What can be done to augment the gaps?

Doing our part

As Barcelona said, the effects of external factors such as the pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia War cannot be controlled and thus there is a need to start consuming local products.

He also encouraged young Filipinos to seize opportunities in the sector by participating more in agricultural activities such as learning how to raise animals for food.

Echoing this concept is Dr. Rogelio Concepcion from the Philippine Association of Agriculturists, Inc. who said that the young generation should start immersing themselves in gardening.

When asked about what corporations and organizations can contribute, Villalon mentioned that everyone should work together and be open to sharing information with each other.

Dr. Concepcion also encouraged corporations to work with small farmers by providing them with services, access to technology, and information.

Dr. Glenn Gregorio, center director of the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture disclosed that the organization formulated the National Agriculture and Fishery Modernization and Industrialization Plan. This aims to improve farm productivity and increase the livable income of farmers and fisherfolks in the next 10 years.

But if there’s one thing that agricultural experts can agree on, it’s this: food security is a “now” issue. It is important now, more than ever, to address problems surrounding agriculture, including the plight of our farmers and fisherfolk.

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“The heartbeat of the country is measured by the condition of our farmers, so a happy farmer creates a happy and food-secure nation,” Dr. Gregorio said. —contributed INQ

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Boosting food security in the Philippines: Inquirer

The paper says that there is a need for a common food security framework to give stakeholders a better understanding of the situation..

MANILA (PHILIPPINE DAILY INQUIRER/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - As the country grapples with record hunger and unprecedented economic difficulties in the shadow of the Covid-19 pandemic, it is now paying the price for its long neglect of the agriculture sector.

Despite the country's fertile soil and seas rich in resources, farmers and fisher folk are still among its poorest, most marginalised citizens. Hunger, especially in the rural areas, is not only widespread but has worsened with the prolonged or recurring lockdowns, while bottlenecks and disruptions in the supply chain to urban centres have forced consumers to pay higher prices for their food.

From a big contributor to the growth of the Philippine economy, agriculture has declined markedly through the decades. Latest estimates of the Department of Agriculture showed that the farm sector would grow this year by 2-2.5 per cent.

Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III earlier said that agriculture must expand by at least 2.5 per cent to keep up with the food demand of an increasing population. Over the past five years, however, agriculture grew by an average of only 0.9 per cent. In the first quarter of this year, it even contracted by 3.3 per cent due to the significant drop in the output of poultry and livestock.

Even before Covid-19 struck, the country was already in the grip of a food security crisis. According to a United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) report released in July 2020, the Philippines had the most number of food-insecure people in South-east Asia from 2017 to 2019 - some "59 million Filipinos suffering from moderate to severe lack of consistent access to food," per a CNN dispatch on the UN data.

The pandemic since 2020 has only aggravated the problem. A study by several UN agencies released last week highlighted the need to ensure a reliable and functioning food supply in times of crisis, more so with Metro Manila and nearby provinces again going into lockdown.

Part of the problem has to do with bringing farm produce to the market, especially to urban centres; there are not enough farm-to-market roads and transport facilities for agricultural products. The series of lockdowns since last year has, meanwhile, pushed many food producers to the brink of collapse.

With the closure of nonessential establishments in Metro Manila, thousands of jobs would be lost again, which is in turn expected to lower the demand for farm products. "Although our production is already low, the consumption and demand are much lower. In meat, we have an oversupply worsened by the arrival of imports," said United Broilers Raisers Association president Bong Inciong. "Everyone's problem is demand because people don't have the money to buy anymore."

In their study "Assessing the Impact of Covid-19 on Food Systems and Adaptive Measures Practised in Metro Manila," the FAO, the United Nations Development Programme, the World Food Programme, and the International Fund for Agricultural Development noted how Covid-19 has caused severe disruptions to food markets and systems, directly affecting farming and fisheries workers.

These gaps, they warned, have resulted in considerable economic damage and food insecurity: "Small-scale food producers are considered less resilient to Covid-19 shocks, particularly in terms of restricted mobility and travel suspensions, due to farm operations requiring intensive labour, from planting, growing and harvesting to delivering farm produce."

Food supply and distribution, on the other hand, were hit by "disorganised and badly disrupted" supply chains due to restrictions on vehicle movement, depriving consumers of fresh and cheaper food sources.

A solution suggested by the UN agencies is for local government units (LGUs) to expand food security programs. Quezon City's example could be emulated: It is supporting 166 urban farms within its jurisdiction to become stable food sources especially for the poor during the pandemic. Other LGUs must likewise develop local food spaces to make them less dependent on sources that are too far or too prone to disruptions.

Three months ago, former agriculture secretary Leonardo Montemayor wrote a comprehensive article on food security. Noting that farmers, food processors, traders, and consumers continued to face food security problems, he suggested that a summit be held on a common food security framework to bring stakeholders into a better understanding of the situation.

That is a call certainly worth pursuing by the government. As the UN study highlighted, there is a need for a common understanding of the roles of the national and local governments in agricultural development and food governance - shared ground that is often missing at this time in their disparate and sometimes conflicting programs and projects meant to address the unyielding, elemental demand of adequate food for the people.

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Challenging the Change: The Growing Impact of Climate Change on PH Food Security and Livelihoods

The new WFP study analyzes climate change through both geospatial and livelihood lenses

On the final day of the world’s global climate summit (COP26) in Glasgow - the World Food Programme Philippines organized a high-level roundtable to discuss a new study which illustrates the impact of increasing climate change on food security and livelihoods.

Globally, in 2020, extreme weather contributed to most of the world’s food crises and was the primary driver of acute hunger in 15 countries. Climate shocks and stresses are increasingly destroying lives, crops and livelihoods, and undermining people’s ability to feed themselves. The Philippines ranks fourth amongst countries in the world most affected by climate risks over the last 20-year period. November has been a month of particular devastation caused by typhoons and super typhoons, stretching from Haiyan eight years to VAMCO and Goni last year.

The World Food Programme, together with the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT, launched the study entitled, “Climate Change and Food Security Analysis in the Philippines,” on 12 November 2021 from 10:00 AM to 11:30 AM. This is a virtual forum called “Challenging the Change: Mitigating the Impact of Climate Change on Food Security and Livelihoods in the Philippines.”

According to the study, climate variability and extreme hazards such as typhoons, floods and drought are projected to have a substantial impact on agricultural, livestock, and fishery supply chains that will affect all aspects from production to distribution to consumption across both urban and rural sectors. This could in turn negatively affect the availability, affordability and accessibility to nutritious food for the Philippine population, particularly for the most vulnerable, poor and remote populations.

By analyzing climate change through both geospatial and livelihood lenses, this report highlights that the effects of climate change can significantly vary at the local and regional level, and also nationwide for particular types of livelihoods. Both urban and rural populations that are already afflicted by food and nutrition insecurity are the most vulnerable to these effects, particularly rural families whose main income depends on agricultural livelihoods.

This roundtable was opened by UN Philippines Resident Coordinator Gustavo Gonzalez and World Food Programme Philippines Representative and Country Director Brenda Barton.

Below is the text of Mr. Gonzalez's remarks:

I am very pleased to be here at this event which brings together two key priorities of the UN Secretary General for this year. As you all know, today will be the last day of this year’s global climate change conference - COP26 - where expectations are very high that the conference will lead to concrete commitments and actions to meet climate ambitions. In September of this year, a global Food Systems Summit tackled the challenge of transforming food systems, including how to minimize their impacts on the climate, as well as how to ensure access to food in light of significant climate changes.

These two issues - climate change and food security – are closely intertwined and pose highly significant challenges for the Philippines. Though most of you will already know, it is worth repeating and highlighting that on one hand, the country ranks 2nd out of 135 countries in the world most affected by climate change impacts based on the Global Climate Risk Index 2020. On the other hand, in 2020, moderate or severe prevalence of food insecurity in the Philippines stood at 62.1%, more than double the global rate of 25.5%. In this context, the study that we are launching today – the Philippines Climate Change and Food Security Analysis – plays an important role in increasing our shared understanding of how climate vulnerability and climate change will impact food security, nutrition and livelihoods in this country.

For today’s discussions, I would like to pose two challenges to our panelists and our audience in relation to the study that we will hear more about today.

First, how can we – government, development partners, sectoral groups – make better use of data to inform the design of appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies to address risks? As we have seen, the climate crisis can no longer be considered just as an anomaly in the future but should be regarded as challenges in the daily reality for vulnerable people, especially Filipino small-holder farmers and fisherfolk in the here and now. Climate shocks and stresses already threaten our lives, directly affect agricultural production, and impact livelihoods. What are the concrete ways that the analysis from this study, such as livelihood zone maps, be used to inform possible impact scenarios in rural and urban settings?

Second, how can we shift from recurrent crisis response to forward-looking climate risk management and develop proactive plans and programmes geared towards climate risk mitigation and adaptation options to help vulnerable communities cope with the increasing disastrous effects of climate change on food security and nutrition?  Innovations, such as forecast-based anticipatory actions to avoid losses and damages from predictable climate hazards, are being scaled up. However, mitigating losses is not enough by itself to protect the most vulnerable populations from the rising climate-related risks and impacts they are bound to face in the coming decades. Solutions that address medium- to long-term climate risks are necessary to complement these innovations in disaster risk management and support longer-term agricultural adaptation programmes.

It is my hope that this discussion today will spark a multisectoral collaboration at the local and national level to form data driven policies and programmes for more resilient food systems, and climate-proof investments to mitigate the effects of climate change, protect the most vulnerable with safety nets against climate extremes and ensure that no Filipino is left behind. [Ends]

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Philippine Climate Change and Food Security Analysis

The study utilized WFP’s Consolidated Livelihood Exercise for Analyzing Resilience (CLEAR) approach which contains a baseline of major livelihood zones all over the country. CLEAR has provided the backbone to build the Philippines’ first livelihood zone maps which aim to provide information for the diversification of economic activities, aimed to ensure that its food systems are secure, peace and hunger are addressed, and the country is on a continuous path to sustainable development.

The products of the project are envisioned to provide government and non-government partners with technical input to various development and action plans such as the National and Local Climate Change Action Plans. In addition, the livelihood zone maps that model scenarios in rural and urban settings can assist government and development partners in the targeted mobilization of resources to increase community resilience. Likewise, the crop suitability maps and the climate change impact scenarios are expected to aid in the shaping policies, resource prioritization, and the crafting of sustainable strategies to mitigate and cope with the effects of climate change on food systems.

Publications

Wfp philippines: launch of climate and food security analysis - 2020.

Food Security and Nutrition Roadmap of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao

Philippines - More intense typhoons: What does a changing climate mean for food security in the Philippines? February 2015

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Challenges in achieving food security

Panay News Panay News Article Link DP 2022-21

DESPITE significant progress in attaining food security, the government still needs to address challenges in the agriculture sector to ensure this goal is achieved. This message was emphasized in a recent study published by state think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) that evaluated the progress of the Agriculture and Fisheries Modernization Act (AFMA) of 1977 in terms of achieving its food security objective.

Various indicators for the four dimensions of food security, namely, food utilization, food stability, food accessibility, and food availability, showed that food security in the Philippines is yet to be achieved.

Based on The Economist’s 2021 Global Food Security Index, the Philippines ranked 64th out of 113 countries in the four dimensions of food security.

In terms of food utilization, which includes food consumption, food quality, and food safety, while hunger incidence and malnutrition have improved, the latter’s progress has been slow in the past decade. The average food intake of Filipinos is also “high in cereals and tubers, but low in fruits and vegetables”.

On food affordability, many Filipino households are unable to consume nutrient-adequate diets due to its unaffordability, with the poorest households suffering the most as seen in their low diet quality and high incidence of malnutrition.

For food accessibility, the Philippines scores lower than its neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in agricultural infrastructure, particularly on logistics system. The limited farm-to-market roads and high transportation costs contribute to this problem.

On food availability, domestic demand for rice has been growing faster than local production, which inevitably contributes to the widening supply gap.

Given these challenges, what can the government do?

The government, according to the PIDS study, should adopt a “systems approach” to achieve coherence in its food and nutrition security policies. It should consider the “other systems” such as education, social protection, water and sanitation, and health systems. A strategic plan should also be formulated, which includes the integration of both food security and nutrition security. This plan must contain objectives, key performance indicators, and major initiatives and projects of different stakeholders.

Government interventions to help achieve food security need to be categorized by urgency and spatially. For instance, children and lactating women living in the poorest areas should be prioritized for immediate implementation of appropriate interventions. Meanwhile, improving the nutrient content of food products and raising the public’s awareness of healthy diet can be done in the medium term.

In the long term, the government can pursue food affordability by improving the efficiency of food systems or increasing the incomes of households vis-à-vis the prices of other commodities.

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The Philippines economy in 2024: Stronger for longer?

The Philippines ended 2023 on a high note, being the fastest growing economy across Southeast Asia with a growth rate of 5.6 percent—just shy of the government's target of 6.0 to 7.0 percent. 1 “National accounts,” Philippine Statistics Authority, January 31, 2024; "Philippine economic updates,” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, November 16, 2023. Should projections hold, the Philippines is expected to, once again, show significant growth in 2024, demonstrating its resilience despite various global economic pressures (Exhibit 1). 2 “Economic forecast 2024,” International Monetary Fund, November 1, 2023; McKinsey analysis.

The growth in the Philippine economy in 2023 was driven by a resumption in commercial activities, public infrastructure spending, and growth in digital financial services. Most sectors grew, with transportation and storage (13 percent), construction (9 percent), and financial services (9 percent), performing the best (Exhibit 2). 3 “National accounts,” Philippine Statistics Authority, January 31, 2024. While the country's trade deficit narrowed in 2023, it remains elevated at $52 billion due to slowing global demand and geopolitical uncertainties. 4 “Highlights of the Philippine export and import statistics,” Philippine Statistics Authority, January 28, 2024. Looking ahead to 2024, the current economic forecast for the Philippines projects a GDP growth of between 5 and 6 percent.

Inflation rates are expected to temper between 3.2 and 3.6 percent in 2024 after ending 2023 at 6.0 percent, above the 2.0 to 4.0 percent target range set by the government. 5 “Nomura downgrades Philippine 2024 growth forecast,” Nomura, September 11, 2023; “IMF raises Philippine growth rate forecast,” International Monetary Fund, July 16, 2023.

For the purposes of this article, most of the statistics used for our analysis have come from a common thread of sources. These include the Central Bank of the Philippines (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas); the Department of Energy Philippines; the IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP); and the Philippines Statistics Authority.

The state of the Philippine economy across seven major sectors and themes

In the article, we explore the 2024 outlook for seven key sectors and themes, what may affect each of them in the coming year, and what could potentially unlock continued growth.

Financial services

The recovery of the financial services sector appears on track as year-on-year growth rates stabilize. 6 Philippines Statistics Authority, November 2023; McKinsey in partnership with Oxford Economics, November 2023. In 2024, this sector will likely continue to grow, though at a slower pace of about 5 percent.

Financial inclusion and digitalization are contributing to growth in this sector in 2024, even if new challenges emerge. Various factors are expected to impact this sector:

• Inclusive finance: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas continues to invest in financial inclusion initiatives. For example, basic deposit accounts (BDAs) reached $22 million in 2023 and banking penetration improved, with the proportion of adults with formal bank accounts increasing from 29 percent in 2019 to 56 percent in 2021. 7 “Financial inclusion dashboard: First quarter 2023,” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, February 6, 2024.
• Digital adoption: Digital channels are expected to continue to grow, with data showing that 60 percent of adults who have a mobile phone and internet access have done a digital financial transaction. 8 “Financial inclusion dashboard: First quarter 2023,” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, February 6, 2024. Businesses in this sector, however, will need to remain vigilant in navigating cybersecurity and fraud risks.
• Unsecured lending growth: Growth in unsecured lending is expected to continue, but at a slower pace than the past two to three years. For example, unsecured retail lending for the banking system alone grew by 27 percent annually from 2020 to 2022. 9 “Loan accounts: As of first quarter 2023,” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, February 6, 2024; "Global banking pools,” McKinsey, November 2023. Businesses in this field are, however, expected to recalibrate their risk profiling models as segments with high nonperforming loans emerge.
• High interest rates: Key interest rates are expected to decline in the second half of 2024, creating more accommodating borrowing conditions that could boost wholesale and corporate loans.

Supportive frameworks have a pivotal role to play in unlocking growth in this sector to meet the ever-increasing demand from the financially underserved. For example, financial literacy programs and easier-to-access accounts—such as BDAs—are some measures that can help widen market access to financial services. Continued efforts are being made to build an open finance framework that could serve the needs of the unbanked population, as well as a unified credit scoring mechanism to increase the ability of historically under-financed segments, such as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), to access formal credit. 10 “BSP launches credit scoring model,” Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, April 26, 2023.

Energy and Power

The outlook for the energy sector seems positive, with the potential to grow by 7 percent in 2024 as the country focuses on renewable energy generation. 11 McKinsey analysis based on input from industry experts. Currently, stakeholders are focused on increasing energy security, particularly on importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) to meet power plants’ requirements as production in one of the country’s main sources of natural gas, the Malampaya gas field, declines. 12 Myrna M. Velasco, “Malampaya gas field prod’n declines steeply in 2021,” Manila Bulletin , July 9, 2022. High global inflation and the fact that the Philippines is a net fuel importer are impacting electricity prices and the build-out of planned renewable energy projects. Recent regulatory moves to remove foreign ownership limits on exploration, development, and utilization of renewable energy resources could possibly accelerate growth in the country’s energy and power sector. 13 “RA 11659,” Department of Energy Philippines, June 8, 2023.

Gas, renewables, and transmission are potential growth drivers for the sector. Upgrading power grids so that they become more flexible and better able to cope with the intermittent electricity supply that comes with renewables will be critical as the sector pivots toward renewable energy. A recent coal moratorium may position natural gas as a transition fuel—this could stimulate exploration and production investments for new, indigenous natural gas fields, gas pipeline infrastructure, and LNG import terminal projects. 14 Philippine energy plan 2020–2040, Department of Energy Philippines, June 10, 2022; Power development plan 2020–2040 , Department of Energy Philippines, 2021. The increasing momentum of green energy auctions could facilitate the development of renewables at scale, as the country targets 35 percent share of renewables by 2030. 15 Power development plan 2020–2040 , 2022.

Growth in the healthcare industry may slow to 2.8 percent in 2024, while pharmaceuticals manufacturing is expected to rebound with 5.2 percent growth in 2024. 16 McKinsey analysis in partnership with Oxford Economics.

Healthcare demand could grow, although the quality of care may be strained as the health worker shortage is projected to increase over the next five years. 17 McKinsey analysis. The supply-and-demand gap in nursing alone is forecast to reach a shortage of approximately 90,000 nurses by 2028. 18 McKinsey analysis. Another compounding factor straining healthcare is the higher than anticipated benefit utilization and rising healthcare costs, which, while helping to meet people's healthcare budgets, may continue to drive down profitability for health insurers.

Meanwhile, pharmaceutical companies are feeling varying effects of people becoming increasingly health conscious. Consumers are using more over the counter (OTC) medication and placing more beneficial value on organic health products, such as vitamins and supplements made from natural ingredients, which could impact demand for prescription drugs. 19 “Consumer health in the Philippines 2023,” Euromonitor, October 2023.

Businesses operating in this field may end up benefiting from universal healthcare policies. If initiatives are implemented that integrate healthcare systems, rationalize copayments, attract and retain talent, and incentivize investments, they could potentially help to strengthen healthcare provision and quality.

Businesses may also need to navigate an increasingly complex landscape of diverse health needs, digitization, and price controls. Digital and data transformations are being seen to facilitate improvements in healthcare delivery and access, with leading digital health apps getting more than one million downloads. 20 Google Play Store, September 27, 2023. Digitization may create an opportunity to develop healthcare ecosystems that unify touchpoints along the patient journey and provide offline-to-online care, as well as potentially realizing cost efficiencies.

Consumer and retail

Growth in the retail and wholesale trade and consumer goods sectors is projected to remain stable in 2024, at 4 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Inflation, however, continues to put consumers under pressure. While inflation rates may fall—predicted to reach 4 percent in 2024—commodity prices may still remain elevated in the near term, a top concern for Filipinos. 21 “IMF raises Philippine growth forecast,” July 26, 2023; “Nomura downgrades Philippines 2024 growth forecast,” September 11, 2023. In response to challenging economic conditions, 92 percent of consumers have changed their shopping behaviors, and approximately 50 percent indicate that they are switching brands or retail providers in seek of promotions and better prices. 22 “Philippines consumer pulse survey, 2023,” McKinsey, November 2023.

Online shopping has become entrenched in Filipino consumers, as they find that they get access to a wider range of products, can compare prices more easily, and can shop with more convenience. For example, a McKinsey Philippines consumer sentiment survey in 2023 found that 80 percent of respondents, on average, use online and omnichannel to purchase footwear, toys, baby supplies, apparel, and accessories. To capture the opportunity that this shift in Filipino consumer preferences brings and to unlock growth in this sector, retail organizations could turn to omnichannel strategies to seamlessly integrate online and offline channels. Businesses may need to explore investments that increase resilience across the supply chain, alongside researching and developing new products that serve emerging consumer preferences, such as that for natural ingredients and sustainable sources.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing is a key contributor to the Philippine economy, contributing approximately 19 percent of GDP in 2022, employing about 7 percent of the country’s labor force, and growing in line with GDP at approximately 6 percent between 2023 and 2024. 23 McKinsey analysis based on input from industry experts.

Some changes could be seen in 2024 that might affect the sector moving forward. The focus toward building resilient supply chains and increasing self-sufficiency is growing. The Philippines also is likely to benefit from increasing regional trade, as well as the emerging trend of nearshoring or onshoring as countries seek to make their supply chains more resilient. With semiconductors driving approximately 45 percent of Philippine exports, the transfer of knowledge and technology, as well as the development of STEM capabilities, could help attract investments into the sector and increase the relevance of the country as a manufacturing hub. 24 McKinsey analysis based on input from industry experts.

To secure growth, public and private sector support could bolster investments in R&D and upskill the labor force. In addition, strategies to attract investment may be integral to the further development of supply chain infrastructure and manufacturing bases. Government programs to enable digital transformation and R&D, along with a strategic approach to upskilling the labor force, could help boost industry innovation in line with Industry 4.0 demand. 25 Industry 4.0 is also referred to as the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Priority products to which manufacturing industries could pivot include more complex, higher value chain electronic components in the semiconductor segment; generic OTC drugs and nature-based pharmaceuticals in the pharmaceutical sector; and, for green industries, products such as EVs, batteries, solar panels, and biomass production.

Information technology business process outsourcing

The information technology business process outsourcing (IT-BPO) sector is on track to reach its long-term targets, with $38 billion in forecast revenues in 2024. 26 Khriscielle Yalao, “WHF flexibility key to achieving growth targets—IBPAP,” Manila Bulletin , January 23, 2024. Emerging innovations in service delivery and work models are being observed, which could drive further growth in the sector.

The industry continues to outperform headcount and revenue targets, shaping its position as a country leader for employment and services. 27 McKinsey analysis based in input from industry experts. Demand from global companies for offshoring is expected to increase, due to cost containment strategies and preference for Philippine IT-BPO providers. New work setups continue to emerge, ranging from remote-first to office-first, which could translate to potential net benefits. These include a 10 to 30 percent increase in employee retention; a three- to four-hour reduction in commute times; an increase in enabled talent of 350,000; and a potential reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 1.4 to 1.5 million tons of CO 2 per year. 28 McKinsey analysis based in input from industry experts. It is becoming increasingly more important that the IT-BPO sector adapts to new technologies as businesses begin to harness automation and generative AI (gen AI) to unlock productivity.

Talent and technology are clear areas where growth in this sector can be unlocked. The growing complexity of offshoring requirements necessitates building a proper talent hub to help bridge employee gaps and better match local talent to employers’ needs. Businesses in the industry could explore developing facilities and digital infrastructure to enable industry expansion outside the metros, especially in future “digital cities” nationwide. Introducing new service areas could capture latent demand from existing clients with evolving needs as well as unserved clients. BPO centers could explore the potential of offering higher-value services by cultivating technology-focused capabilities, such as using gen AI to unlock revenue, deliver sales excellence, and reduce general administrative costs.

Sustainability

The Philippines is considered to be the fourth most vulnerable country to climate change in the world as, due to its geographic location, the country has a higher risk of exposure to natural disasters, such as rising sea levels. 29 “The Philippines has been ranked the fourth most vulnerable country to climate change,” Global Climate Risk Index, January 2021. Approximately $3.2 billion, on average, in economic loss could occur annually because of natural disasters over the next five decades, translating to up to 7 to 8 percent of the country’s nominal GDP. 30 “The Philippines has been ranked the fourth most vulnerable country to climate change,” Global Climate Risk Index, January 2021.

The Philippines could capitalize on five green growth opportunities to operate in global value chains and catalyze growth for the nation:

• Renewable energy: The country could aim to generate 50 percent of its energy from renewables by 2040, building on its high renewable energy potential and the declining cost of producing renewable energy.
• Solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing: More than a twofold increase in annual output from 2023 to 2030 could be achieved, enabled by lower production costs.
• Battery production: The Philippines could aim for a $1.5 billion domestic market by 2030, capitalizing on its vast nickel reserves (the second largest globally). 31 “MineSpans,” McKinsey, November 2023.
• Electric mobility: Electric vehicles could account for 15 percent of the country’s vehicle sales by 2030 (from less than 1 percent currently), driven by incentives, local distribution, and charging infrastructure. 32 McKinsey analysis based on input from industry experts.
• Nature-based solutions: The country’s largely untapped total abatement potential could reach up to 200 to 300 metric tons of CO 2 , enabled by its biodiversity and strong demand.

The Philippine economy: Three scenarios for growth

Having grown faster than other economies in Southeast Asia in 2023 to end the year with 5.6 percent growth, the Philippines can expect a similarly healthy growth outlook for 2024. Based on our analysis, there are three potential scenarios for the country’s growth. 33 McKinsey analysis in partnership with Oxford Economics.

Slower growth: The first scenario projects GDP growth of 4.8 percent if there are challenging conditions—such as declining trade and accelerated inflation—which could keep key policy rates high at about 6.5 percent and dampen private consumption, leading to slower long-term growth.

Soft landing: The second scenario projects GDP growth of 5.2 percent if inflation moderates and global conditions turn out to be largely favorable due to a stable investment environment and regional trade demand.

Accelerated growth: In the third scenario, GDP growth is projected to reach 6.1 percent if inflation slows and public policies accommodate aspects such as loosening key policy rates and offering incentive programs to boost productivity.

Focusing on factors that could unlock growth in its seven critical sectors and themes, while adapting to the macro-economic scenario that plays out, would allow the Philippines to materialize its growth potential in 2024 and take steps towards achieving longer-term, sustainable economic growth.

Jon Canto is a partner in McKinsey’s Manila office, where Frauke Renz is an associate partner, and Vicah Villanueva is a consultant.

The authors wish to thank Charlene Chua, Charlie del Rosario, Ryan delos Reyes, Debadrita Dhara, Evelyn C. Fong, Krzysztof Kwiatkowski, Frances Lee, Aaron Ong, and Liane Tan for their contributions to this article.

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Republicans threaten to ban tiktok, despite trump’s dissent.

Also, Biden proposed new taxes and larger social programs. Here’s the latest at the end of Monday.

By Matthew Cullen

House Republican leaders said today that they were planning to vote this week on legislation demanding that the video app TikTok cuts ties with its Chinese parent company or face a ban in the U.S. Lawmakers in both parties have described the app as a national security threat.

The House majority leader, Steve Scalise, said the chamber would try to quickly approve the bill through special procedures that are reserved for noncontroversial legislation. That approach reflected the effort’s growing momentum during an election year in which both Republicans and Democrats are eager to show they’re willing to be tough on China. President Biden has committed to signing the bill if it passes.

But the Republican push flies in the face of the party’s de facto leader, Donald Trump. Trump had pushed to ban TikTok while he was in office, but he has recently reversed course. Today, he said a ban would make young people “go crazy,” and also benefit Facebook, which he called an “enemy of the people.”

The House vote will test Trump’s ability to use his influence to help tank legislation in Congress, as he recently did with a bipartisan immigration bill. In the Senate, the majority leader has not yet committed to holding a vote.

The U.S. is not alone: My colleagues explained why countries are pushing to ban TikTok .

Biden proposed new taxes and larger social programs

President Biden sent to Congress today a $7.3 trillion budget for the next fiscal year. It included increased government aid for workers, parents and students, offset by tax increases on corporations and high earners.

Biden’s plan reiterated his request for about $100 billion for border security and aid to Israel and Ukraine. But it stands almost no chance of becoming law, given that Republicans control the House.

Instead, the document serves as a draft of Biden’s policy platform as he campaigns for re-election in November. It includes principles, such as cutting taxes for people earning less than $400,000 and covering the cost by raising taxes on corporations, that are intended to draw a distinction with his presumptive Republican opponent, Donald Trump.

Here’s a look at what else is in Biden’s proposal .

A doctored image fueled royal speculation

Catherine, the Princess of Wales, apologized today for doctoring a photograph of her with her three children, which was recalled by several news agencies after they determined the image had been manipulated. In a statement, she chalked up the alteration to an innocent desire to retouch the image.

If the photograph was meant to quell speculation about Catherine’s health after abdominal surgery in January, it instead achieved the opposite , fueling the spread of rumors and conspiracy theories.

More top news

Court: Senator Robert Menendez and his wife pleaded not guilty to obstruction of justice .

Jan. 6: A newly released transcript fleshed out an account of Donald Trump’s demand to go to the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 .

Ukraine: The country could deploy F-16s as soon as July, but it might only have as few as six by then, out of about 45 pledged from other countries.

Politics: Democrats are hopeful about Biden’s chances in North Carolina, and nervous in Georgia .

Washington: Marcia Fudge, the secretary of housing and urban development, said she would resign this month .

Trump: The writer E. Jean Carroll suggested that she is considering suing Trump for defamation again over comments he made on the campaign trail.

A.I.: Covariant, a robotics start-up, is designing technology that lets robots learn skills much as chatbots do .

Middle East: The Yemen-based branch of Al Qaeda said that its leader, Khaled Batarfi, had died .

Health: Wegovy, the blockbuster weight loss drug, is now approved for a new use: reducing the risk of heart attacks .

TIME TO UNWIND

A glamorous evening at the oscars.

The big winner of last night’s Academy Awards was Christopher Nolan’s biopic “Oppenheimer,” which took home seven Oscars, including best picture. The most competitive race of the night, best actress, was won by Emma Stone of “Poor Things.”

The night’s most memorable moments included Ryan Gosling’s bring-the-house-down performance of the song “I’m Just Ken,” from “Barbie”; a naked John Cena; and a warm reception for Messi, the Border collie from “Anatomy of a Fall.”

And, as always, there was a healthy dose of fashion, both during the Oscars and at the after-parties . Our photographer got an inside look at Vanity Fair’s .

Still need to catch up? Here’s how to stream this year’s winners .

Avoid the multitasking trap

Many of us try to do two or more tasks at once: chatting with colleagues while checking emails, or cooking dinner while watching TV. But the fact is, we’re not great at multitasking, and it’s also not great for us. Some studies have found that multitasking can make our hearts race, raise our blood pressure and anxiety, and dampen our mood. It can also negatively affect our perception of the work at hand.

Experts recommend doing one thing at a time, or monotasking. Here are their tips.

Dinner table topics

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WHAT TO DO TONIGHT

Cook: This chicken biryani works for entertaining or a family meal.

Watch: “Kuessipan” is one of the best international movies to stream right now .

Read: A new novel amended Mark Twain’s “Huckleberry Finn.” Our critic called it majestic.

Listen: We’re enjoying new tracks by Salt Cathedral and 4batz .

Dress up: Follow the lead of Oscar hopefuls and embrace the black tuxedo .

Squeeze: Wirecutter tested 19 juicers. This one is their favorite.

Compete: Take this week’s Flashback history quiz .

Play: Here are today’s Spelling Bee , Wordle and Mini Crossword . Find all our games here .

ONE LAST THING

Breaking a birding record.

Peter Kaestner now stands alone at the top of birding’s “big listers,” the small group of people who travel the world in an effort to document as many different species as possible. He cemented that position last month when he spotted an orange-tufted spiderhunter, a banana-loving songbird in the Philippines.

The spiderhunter was the 10,000th bird that Kaestner documented — an achievement once considered unreachable.

Have an unrivaled evening.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — Matthew

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