research title about new normal business

Frontiers in Psychology
Organizational Psychology
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How normal is the new normal? Individual and Organizational implications of the Covid 19 Pandemic

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The term “new normal” first appeared during the 2008 financial crisis to refer to the dramatic economic, cultural and social transformations that caused precariousness and social unrest, impacting collective perceptions and individual lifestyles. This term has been used again during the COVID-19 pandemic to ...

Keywords : Covid 19 pandemic, HRM, Change Management, Technostress, Work/Life balance, Career, Meaning of working

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Strategies businesses can implement to adapt to the new normal

It’s a term that’s been thrown around aplenty since March 2o2o — “the new normal.”

While the world starts to make progress tiptoeing around the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, businesses are starting to reopen, events are slowly starting to ramp up, and the economy has its sights set on stabilizing as coronavirus vaccines rollout across the continent in optimistic numbers.

But it’s not as easy as slipping into an old work outfit. New strategies are being implemented throughout the business landscape to ensure employees and employers can more easily adapt to the new normal.

When the COVID-19 pandemic plunged the world into a global health crisis, measures were put in place to help curb the spread of the virus which took its toll on the economy as businesses were forced to limit operations or shutter in compliance. Employees and employers are now trying to get acclimated to the new normal as measures start (and continue) to ease. Businesses are now looking to act decisively and strategically to take advantage of the world’s changes.

The key for businesses is to find a balance between resuming and rebuilding operations while keeping employees safe. It is also important as a business to implement measures to avoid further transmission of the virus.

Today, we’re going to highlight strategies that businesses can use to operate and thrive in an environment using “the new normal.” Hopefully, the working world can soon call itself a post-COVID environment.

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How can businesses adapt operations to the new normal?

It goes without saying but resuming operations after a worldwide crisis can be daunting. But fear not, the proper strategies can help your business recover from loss and get back on the right path towards a trajectory of growth.

Employees first

Employees have played a primary role in sustaining operations and keeping company’s metaphorical heads above water throughout the pandemic. Now is the time for businesses to listen to them. A business should communicate and be compassionate towards building trust with its employees. Consider creating channels or effective ways for your employees to give you feedback and strengthen your bonds with your team. Any concerns about their overall health, job security, living situation, or financial status should be listened to.

Businesses should be seeking feedback in regards to how the staff feels about changes. Listening to your employees will go a long way with mental and physical health being at the forefront. As the business and economy start to recover, so should the people that work for it. Just make sure the trust is a two-way street.

Implement a safe working environment

Some important tactics should be implemented as your workplace readies your full workforce back to the office:

Stagger the capacity to the worksite. The first batch of returning employees should include those who no longer wish to work from home and whose physical presence is deemed essential at the office.
Create a cycling system. Spread out the operational hours by minimizing the number of employees on-site at any given time.
Reduce interactions with third-party staff, external parties, and customers. Consider exploring digital platforms to lessen the risk of exposure to your staff.
Implement measures that can maximize social distancing protocols and be sure to install hand sanitizer stations and dividers.
Ask your staff to wear face masks indoors when keeping distances is not possible.

Explore different digital technologies

Now is the time to consider expanding into the age of digital tech. By using a variety of digital platforms, your company can reduce the risk of viral transmission and can ensure the return to work unravels smoothly.

For example, substitute face-to-face meetings with online video conferences, like Zoom or Google Meet. Video conferences offer businesses the chance to communicate with customers without the risk of exposure to the virus. Seamlessly enter video conferences for check-ins with staff, brainstorming sessions, and collaborations with clients and other businesses.

Companies can also choose to organize documentation, data, and recruiting information onto a digital platform. It reduces the need to have person-to-person meetings and can be effortlessly shared with entire staff members at once — so long, board meetings!

We’re not expecting every company to make the switch as Microsoft demonstrates in the below video, but it offers a glimpse towards the digital workplace transformation that collaborates workplace management in a virtual world.

Re-evaluate your company’s financial model for growth

At the height of the pandemic, businesses started scaling down and making conservative choices to cut costs and sustain day-to-day operations. As you reshape your business plan to adapt to the new normal, re-evaluate your company’s financial strategies.

The transition from short-term cost reduction to focusing on more long-term investments and opportunities for growth. In March 2020, businesses needed to focus on hanging on in the short term but finding a financial balance between the short and long term should now become the main focus.

Companies should continue to monitor financial performances over the coming months and consider all forms of support — whether that’s government aid, relief programs, or angel investors. You got through the sticky part, now look towards the mid-range and long-term goals.

Invest towards potential future crisis prevention

The COVID-19 pandemic has been a wake-up call for everyone. A worldwide pandemic might have been laughed off a decade ago but we all witnessed firsthand how very real it can be. Now might be a good time to invest in future crisis prevention plans. We’re not recommending creating a new vaccine, but think about how your company can handle another potential health pandemic or crisis.

Consider how much your company was impacted by travel bans. Maybe automation tech and outsourcing could become wise investments going forward. Cloud applications can help you scale the workforce and enable a quick transition back to remote working.

With the switch towards a more digital-based workforce, consider investing in cybersecurity solutions to prevent any type of cyberattacks.

Businesses around the world were caught off guard by the pandemic. We’re over 16 months from the start of the outbreak and are still trying to grasp the long-term effects.

It’s essential to learn from what happened and adapt to the conditions that are becoming the new normal. Secure your employees, operations, and help plan for any potential crisis in the future. The world is making a quick leap towards the digital age and you might want to hop on board.

What are some new normal strategies your company plans to implement as we attempt to adapt to the new normal?

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The ‘new normal’ business environment

The corporate and business world has experienced several significant events over the years. Ranging from financial crises to political events and health crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

In taking steps to resolve the health crisis, many have reimagined the new normal in a world that is now more inward-looking than before.

Consequently, contingency planning and incorporation of the uncertainty around future events has become a core consideration in decisions taken by companies.

Productivity and efficiency have also been brought to the fore during this pandemic which presents opportunities for automation and smarter ways of working, which thrive in a virtual society.

It has become evident that the previously ‘established’ way of doing things was impacted and companies thriving in this situation were the ones that were willing and able to re-adapt and remodel to take advantage of their strengths and create new opportunities in this post-crisis world.

This involved a longer-term focus in relation to the decisions taken by businesses, increased use of the internet in online marketing and e-commerce activities.

Other key themes in the response to this pandemic revolved around the ability to harness information processing capabilities to derive insights into the ripple effects of the pandemic on market forces, competition, business reengineering as well as future trends.

It is evident that the world is changing swiftly as uncertainty surrounding trade, economic growth, regulations and geopolitics looms. At the same time, the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), also known as Industry 4.0 can open opportunities for growth even during economic downturns through greater productivity and efficiencies.

Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR)

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), also known as Industry 4.0, is the unfolding age of digitalization—from the digitally connected products and services we consume, to advancements in smart cities and factories and increasingly common automation of tasks and services in our homes and at work, has finally come of age and it’s pervading virtually every aspect of modern life. From consumers to manufacturers to cities, 4IR advancements are more accessible and less costly than just a few years ago but 4IR is more than technology: as it gradually shapes how we live and work (and even play), it also ushers in a revolution of experience.

Imagining Smart Manufacturing – looking beyond COVID-19

Globally, the modern factory is already a highly complex environment.

The promise — if not the full reality — of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) has pushed a few leading organisations to digitise virtually every aspect of manufacturing. In such environments, advanced machines and robots are equipped with a wide array of sensors connected to high-powered analytics engines in the cloud that assess performance, manage production schedules, maintain supplies and orchestrate all the activities on the factory floor.

Most of the technologies on which the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) depends are in place — at least in theory: Advanced robotics and 3D printing, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, sophisticated sensors and the Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, advanced data analytics, virtual and augmented reality. Most manufacturing companies understand the value of these technologies whether they are in the supply chain, in production processes or incorporated into the products and services sold to customers, however only a few have made the big bets necessary to implement these technologies throughout their operations.

In Ghana, where the concept of the 4IR is still being processed, imagine that factory transformed by the implementation of 5G networking. The significantly greater speeds of 5G — up to 10 Gbps, far faster than wi-fi — and its near-zero latency should alleviate concerns about the speed and reliability of earlier wireless protocols as observed in environments that have experienced 4IR. By eliminating the need for wired connectivity, 5G will supplement the high-speed manufacturing environment with a far greater degree of flexibility. The sheer richness of the 5G-enabled factory, which will have the capacity to maintain connections among far more sensors than either wired or previous wireless facilities, offers the potential to connect just about anything.

Key Steps to an effective pandemic response

As manufacturers contemplate this ‘factory of the future’, however, the scope of the problems from COVID-19 may seem daunting, especially as the world experiences the third wave, particularly for industrial manufacturers with integrated global supply chains and complex operating environments. But that’s no excuse for inaction. For governments, businesses and institutions, the essential elements of a high-level response are quite similar.

Reconfigure

First, stakeholders need to fix the economic damage of the crisis. Governments must address increased national debt, a reduced tax base, and higher short-term spending. Businesses will need to address vastly weaker balance sheets, steep revenue declines and, in many cases, weakened supply chains and stressed or depleted employee bases, given reduced staff numbers to ensure physical distancing.

Both governments and businesses need to review their response to the pandemic, understand best practices, and prepare for the next inevitable crisis. Companies must rethink their operating model, supply chain and business model. Countries need to consider what is essential to localise for reasons of security, economy and crisis management. More broadly, both nations and organisations need to rethink what success means, identifying new measures of material, social and environmental progress that can guide our efforts.

Organisations must make the systemic rethinking concrete by reconfiguring public and business institutions. This represents a much more fundamental redesign of organisations than the repair process entails. The crisis has put into strong relief the uncomfortable truth that a host of institutions around the world are simply not ready for the 21st century. It’s essential that systems including healthcare, legal, education and taxation be reconfigured to become more efficient, effective and resilient.

In a period of great uncertainty, people will call for more transparent information on a broader range of issues. Investors, regulators and stakeholders will demand more disclosure and information in real time on everything from cash flow to the health of employees.

A host of organisations — in both the public and private sectors — will need to restart in a changed world, because they were either shut down owing to government fiat or forced to for financial reasons. The need to restart can happen at any point in the repair-rethink-reconfigure process. As uncertainty grows around the world, this process becomes the new normal: the next crisis will occur, and organisations that have not learnt the lessons of this experience will be back in repair mode.

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Adapting to the culture of ‘new normal’: an emerging response to COVID-19

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Jeff Clyde G Corpuz, Adapting to the culture of ‘new normal’: an emerging response to COVID-19, Journal of Public Health , Volume 43, Issue 2, June 2021, Pages e344–e345, https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdab057

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A year after COVID-19 pandemic has emerged, we have suddenly been forced to adapt to the ‘new normal’: work-from-home setting, parents home-schooling their children in a new blended learning setting, lockdown and quarantine, and the mandatory wearing of face mask and face shields in public. For many, 2020 has already been earmarked as ‘the worst’ year in the 21st century. Ripples from the current situation have spread into the personal, social, economic and spiritual spheres. Is this new normal really new or is it a reiteration of the old? A recent correspondence published in this journal rightly pointed out the involvement of a ‘supportive’ government, ‘creative’ church and an ‘adaptive’ public in the so-called culture. However, I argue that adapting to the ‘new normal’ can greatly affect the future. I would carefully suggest that we examine the context and the location of culture in which adaptations are needed.

To live in the world is to adapt constantly. A year after COVID-19 pandemic has emerged, we have suddenly been forced to adapt to the ‘new normal’: work-from-home setting, parents home-schooling their children in a new blended learning setting, lockdown and quarantine, and the mandatory wearing of face mask and face shields in public. For many, 2020 has already been earmarked as ‘the worst’ year in the 21st century. 1 Ripples from the current situation have spread into the personal, social, economic and spiritual spheres. Is this new normal really new or is it a reiteration of the old? A recent correspondence published in this journal rightly pointed out the involvement of a ‘supportive’ government, ‘creative’ church and an ‘adaptive’ public in the so-called culture. 2 However, I argue that adapting to the ‘new normal’ can greatly affect the future. I would carefully suggest that we examine the context and the location of culture in which adaptations are needed.

The term ‘new normal’ first appeared during the 2008 financial crisis to refer to the dramatic economic, cultural and social transformations that caused precariousness and social unrest, impacting collective perceptions and individual lifestyles. 3 This term has been used again during the COVID-19 pandemic to point out how it has transformed essential aspects of human life. Cultural theorists argue that there is an interplay between culture and both personal feelings (powerlessness) and information consumption (conspiracy theories) during times of crisis. 4 Nonetheless, it is up to us to adapt to the challenges of current pandemic and similar crises, and whether we respond positively or negatively can greatly affect our personal and social lives. Indeed, there are many lessons we can learn from this crisis that can be used in building a better society. How we open to change will depend our capacity to adapt, to manage resilience in the face of adversity, flexibility and creativity without forcing us to make changes. As long as the world has not found a safe and effective vaccine, we may have to adjust to a new normal as people get back to work, school and a more normal life. As such, ‘we have reached the end of the beginning. New conventions, rituals, images and narratives will no doubt emerge, so there will be more work for cultural sociology before we get to the beginning of the end’. 5

Now, a year after COVID-19, we are starting to see a way to restore health, economies and societies together despite the new coronavirus strain. In the face of global crisis, we need to improvise, adapt and overcome. The new normal is still emerging, so I think that our immediate focus should be to tackle the complex problems that have emerged from the pandemic by highlighting resilience, recovery and restructuring (the new three Rs). The World Health Organization states that ‘recognizing that the virus will be with us for a long time, governments should also use this opportunity to invest in health systems, which can benefit all populations beyond COVID-19, as well as prepare for future public health emergencies’. 6 There may be little to gain from the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is important that the public should keep in mind that no one is being left behind. When the COVID-19 pandemic is over, the best of our new normal will survive to enrich our lives and our work in the future.

No funding was received for this paper.

UNESCO . A year after coronavirus: an inclusive ‘new normal’. https://en.unesco.org/news/year-after-coronavirus-inclusive-new-normal . (12 February 2021, date last accessed) .

Cordero DA . To stop or not to stop ‘culture’: determining the essential behavior of the government, church and public in fighting against COVID-19 . J Public Health (Oxf) 2021 . doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdab026 .

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World Health Organization . From the “new normal” to a “new future”: A sustainable response to COVID-19. 13 October 2020 . https: // www.who.int/westernpacific/news/commentaries/detail-hq/from-the-new-normal-to-a-new-future-a-sustainable-response-to-covid-19 . (12 February 2021, date last accessed) .

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A New Normal or Business-as-Usual? Lessons for COVID-19 from Financial Crises in East and Southeast Asia

Special Issue Article
Published: 27 October 2020
Volume 32 , pages 1504–1534, ( 2020 )

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O. Fiona Yap ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-1287-3768 1

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A Correction to this article was published on 11 November 2020

This article has been updated

Crises and dislocations home in on social, economic, and political weaknesses that are often sidestepped or pushed to the backburner in the interests of master plans of growth or development. Recovery from crises, then, provides the opportunity to address these underlying issues that preceded and, likely, contributed to the crises or dislocation; meanwhile, a return to the previous normalcy following such crises generally means exacerbation of these weaknesses that erode and threaten to fracture social, economic and political foundations. This paper documents social and economic policies across two financial crises, the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, for South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia, to reveal the problems from growth-centric recovery focus on economic fragilities, social cohesion, and political stability. Further, using evidence from the ground and survey data, we also show how recovery to a new normal with a reprioritization of social policies invigorates the social, political, and economic foundations. We round off the study with an examination of social policy changes under COVID-19 to assess how the efforts track against a recovery to business-as-usual economic normalcy or a new normal that reprioritizes social policies and the economy. The scope of change is high; as we show in the paper, it is also necessary.

Les crises et les bouleversements renvoient à des faiblesses sociales, économiques et politiques qui sont souvent évitées ou mises en sourdine afin de suivre les grands plans de croissance ou de développement. Le fait de se relever après une crise offre donc la possibilité de s'attaquer à ces problèmes sous-jacents qui ont précédé et, vraisemblablement, contribué aux crises ou aux bouleversements; en attendant, suite à de telles crises, un retour à la normalité d’avant signifie généralement une exacerbation de ces faiblesses qui érodent et menacent de fracturer les fondations sociales, économiques et politiques. Cet article documente les politiques sociales et économiques à travers deux crises financières, la crise financière asiatique et la crise financière mondiale, pour la Corée du Sud, les Philippines et l'Indonésie, afin de révéler les problèmes d'une reprise axée sur la croissance et de se concentrer sur les fragilités économiques, la cohésion sociale et la stabilité politique. De plus, en utilisant des preuves sur le terrain et des données d'enquête, nous montrons également comment la relance de l’économie sur la base d’une nouvelle norme, avec une redéfinition des priorités des politiques sociales, revigore les fondements sociaux, politiques et économiques. Nous terminons l'étude par un examen des changements de politique sociale dans le cadre de la COVID-19 pour évaluer de quelle façon les efforts s'opposent à une reprise du statu quo de la normalité économique ou à une nouvelle normalité qui redéfinit les priorités des politiques sociales et de l'économie. L'ampleur du changement est élevée; comme nous le montrons dans cet article, elle est également nécessaire.

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Introduction

The catastrophic one-two punch from COVID-19 upended political, social, and economic life globally and left governments scrambling to respond on multiple fronts. As countries ease tentatively and uneasily to recover to life before the pandemic, a key question consistently raised is this: recovery to what? Should the outpouring of resources, efforts, funds, and time be aimed at a business-as-usual economic recovery? Or should they be targeted at recovery to a new normal beyond growth-centric revival? Winston Churchill’s famous quip, “Never let a good crisis go to waste,” is a reminder that crises and dislocations home in on social, economic, and political weaknesses all too often sidestepped or pushed to the backburner as a result of single-minded pursuits of master plans of growth or development. Recovery from crises to a new normal, then, typically means seizing the opportunity to reprioritize society, politics and the economy; for many countries, this entails expanding medium- and long-term social policies that address underlying social, political, or economic weaknesses that preceded and, likely, exacerbated the crises or dislocation. Meanwhile, a return to previous normalcy following such crises generally refers to a focus on growth-centric policies aimed primarily at an economic rebound. In practice, return to business-as-usual, then, fixates on economic normalcy; social policies, where adopted, are stop-gap measures that do not substantively address underlying shortcomings. Such a course leaves way for weaknesses to amplify and further corrode or even fracture their foundations. Despite the promises of a recovery to a new normal and the corresponding perils associated with business-as-usual economic normalcy, reprioritization with a new normal remains largely unrealized, even as a growing body of literature shows such a revamp improves economic fundamentals, political support and social relations for growth, particularly in the medium- and long-term (Stiglitz 2000 ; Bernanke 2009 ).

This paper joins this growing literature: it documents the economic, political, and social downsides of a business-as-usual growth-centric rebound and provides corresponding evidence that a new normal that incorporates medium- and long-term social policies—such as environmental and social protection—promote political support and social cohesion for countries in East and Southeast Asia; further, we relate the findings to social policy changes under COVID-19 to assess how recovery efforts in the three countries track against the pursuit of growth-centric versus a new normal recovery. Specifically, we examine the experiences of three countries in East and Southeast Asia—South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia—across two financial crises, the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), 1997–1998, and the subsequent Global Financial Crisis (GFC), 2007–2008, to show that the three countries primarily targeted recovery to economic normalcy following the AFC and the subsequent GFC, with social policies, where adopted, mostly temporary and ad hoc measures to facilitate economic recovery. These experiences largely mirror those of other countries in East and Southeast Asia. We provide qualitative evidence that show how the growth-centric recoveries increased economic vulnerabilities and social insecurity. Further, we provide quantitative evidence from systematic analyses of surveys to show the political and social benefits of medium- and long-term social policies. Specifically, we show respondents are impelled to protest to assert their preferences for social policies over economic performance; in addition, social trust is based on social policies rather than a growth-centric economic normalcy. And, we bring the discussion up-to-date by relating the relevance of the findings to social policy changes under COVID-19.

The East and Southeast Asia region is interesting for study: countries in the region are generally considered to be strong economic performers, so that the populace in East and Southeast Asian countries may be inclined to welcome a growth-centric, business-as-usual recovery, more so than peoples in other regions. In particular, these countries have earned accolades for their economic success, as the Asian tigers of South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, and the next Asian tigers of Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Indeed, a key pillar of the East Asian Development Model (EADM)—a growth model ascribed to countries in the region—is that economic achievements underpin citizens’ acceptance of less-than-democratic regime rules and processes to enable the government-led economic success in these countries, often pursued with the aid of illiberal rules, processes, or practices (Shrestha 2013 ; Cha and Yap 2020 ). Meanwhile, in stark contrast, social policies—such as social protection—are underdeveloped: social policies have historically been described as “productivism” or “developmentalism”: i.e., they were left primarily to families and communities on the basis of mutual support while economic and industrial development objectives were prioritized by the state (Ratigan 2017 ). These depictions of East and Southeast Asia underline that citizens in the region may be inclined to embrace a return to business-as-usual economic normalcy. It stands to reason that if the examination reveals otherwise—that citizens in the region prefer and support a recovery to a new normal that incorporates medium- and long-term social policies—then the results are likely to be broadly generalizable.

To enhance generalizability, the three dissimilar countries of South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines are chosen for examination from the population of East and Southeast Asian countries, i.e., we adopt the most different cases comparative method to augment external validity of the findings. Briefly, the most different cases or systems comparative method draws findings based on selection of cases from a defined population that vary across most of the relevant independent variables; as a result of such case selections, similar outcomes on the dependent may be mapped to the independent variables that are alike, i.e., they may be attributed to the remaining areas of similarities (Przeworski and Teune 1970 ; Collier 1993 ; Levy 2008 ; Mill 1875 ). Footnote 1 By the most different cases comparative method, then, consistent outcomes across the cases undergird generalizability or external validity of the findings. And, to be sure, the three countries vary widely across culture, society, economic and political development. Thus, culturally and socially, the countries are diverse: South Korea is generally considered a Confucius society, the Philippines is primarily Spanish-Catholic, while Indonesia has the world’s largest Muslim population, at 87% of the country’s total population (Statistics Indonesia 2010). The countries also vary in terms of economic development: South Korea is a developed country that joined the ranks of the OECD in 2000 while Indonesia and the Philippines are generally characterized as emergent economies. Politically, the countries also differ: the Philippines was among the first non-democracies in East and Southeast Asia to democratize in 1986, followed closely by South Korea in 1987, while Indonesia’s democratization occurred a decade later. Of the three, South Korea’s political progress has been the steadiest, with Indonesia facing down an alleged coup in 2016 while the Philippines has witnessed attempted, plotted, and alleged coups in 1986, 1987, 1989, 1990 and, after a lull, in 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007 (Yap 2020 ).

What are similarities across the countries, then? Briefly, we show that the three countries pursued growth-centric return to economic normalcy that eroded economic fundamentals; we also draw on survey data for evidence that social policies and their prioritization enhance social cohesion and political stability to support a purposeful recovery to a new normal comprising expanded medium- and long-term social policies.

Thus, on the one hand, the almost single-minded focus on economic recovery—where governments doubled down on efforts to strengthen economic growth captured nominally by Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and its variants—meant that most countries in the region appeared to withstand the crises well. As an indication, for the AFC, most countries in the region reported positive growths by 1999, with South Korea, a country hard-hit during the crisis, leading the pack with double-digit growth of 11.3% (World Bank Databank 2020 ); in contrast, Japan, a creditor during the AFC, reported negative growths in 1998 and 1999. As another indication, for the GFC, most countries in the region averted negative growths altogether; indeed, their recovery from the GFC well before counterparts in other regions led to renewed interest and enthusiasm in their economic success, yet again (Pempel 2015 ; Das 2012 ).

On the other hand, even as these economies returned to pre-crisis macro-level economic achievements, data from OECD, ILO, and the World Bank show large and widening gaps between the haves and have-nots, especially in the labour market. As a result, even as growths returned to normal for the East and Southeast Asian countries, they also experienced high incidence of low paid work and short average job tenure among the vulnerable population, including women, youths, the elderly, migrant workers, and those in the informal economy, i.e., the recovery to economic normalcy impaired core constituents of the labour market. Critically, studies note that such disparities and inequities undermine economic, political, and social foundations and leave countries susceptible to future shocks (OECD 2017 ; Stiglitz 2000 ; Basso et al. 2012 ; Birdsall 2011 ). Anecdotally, fissures are evident in the growing social divides and political discords in East and Southeast Asia, a region where the populace is traditionally seen as compliant and deferential. Witness, for instance, the Sunflower movement in Taiwan in 2014, the million-strong Candlelight protests in South Korea, 2016–2017, and the year-long protests in Hong Kong, 2019–2020. Meanwhile, the election of controversial and polarizing candidates—such as President Duterte in the Philippines, who campaigned on an anti-crime platform of shoot-to-kill, or Vice-President Ma’ruf Amin, the inactive chair of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) and Rais Aam (supreme leader) of the Islamic mass organization Nahdlatul Ulama in Indonesia, whose orthodox views include advocacy of the criminalization of gay sex—threaten to permanently cleave politics and society (Yap 2019 ).

This paper makes three contributions: first, it reveals clear and growing economic vulnerabilities that follow growth-centric rebounds. In particular, we show increasing non-standard or high levels of informalization of employment in the three countries to corroborate the economic costs and resultant fragilities of growth-centric recovery on growth, particularly in the medium- and long-term. Second, it highlights how a new normal that incorporates medium- and long-term social policies—such as environmental or social protection policies—invigorate social and political foundations; countries in the region, then, benefit from policies that go beyond growth-centric business-as-usual recovery. Thus, using survey data, we show popular support for social policies over economic growth, and respondents are motivated to protest for social policies; further, we show that respondents’ social trust rests on social policies rather than economic growth. Medium- and long-term social policies, then, enhance political stability and social relations which undergird economic achievements in these countries; meanwhile, the temporary spikes in social policies that follow crisis do not bring the medium- and long-term policy benefits because the focus on getting back to business-as-usual means social policies adopted are not well formulated and often scuttled following the crises. Third, we examine social policies adopted under COVID-19 to assess the content of recovery for the three countries, given the clear lesson for COVID-19 recovery from this study: recovery needs to target a new normal that addresses social, political, or economic weakness through the expansion of medium- and long-term social policies. Our assessment reveals that, of the three countries in this study, only South Korea may be pursuing a reprioritization of society, politics, and the economy through social policies that are not just crisis-specific stop-gap measures. This highlights that most governments are pursuing growth-centric recovery, yet again, notwithstanding previous learning.

In the following, we give brief backgrounds to the country cases in this study before describing the crises and recoveries to show the growth-centric focus. We go on to provide evidence and systematic analyses of the problems of growth-centric economic recovery and the promises of a new normal that prioritizes medium- and long-term social policies. This is followed with a discussion of social policies adopted since COVID-19, and how they track against recovery to a new normal. We conclude with implications of the findings.

Pre-Crisis Politics, Economies, and Social Policies

This section provides brief backgrounds to politics, economy, and social policies in South Korea, Indonesia, and the Philippines prior to and following democratization. Using democratization as a demarcation follows theoretical and empirical findings that social policies expand post-democratization, i.e., democratization generally marks the turning point for expanding social policies (Yap 2006 ; Brown and Hunter 1999 ; Reich 1999 ). The three countries hew closely to this: social policies were significantly limited prior to democratization and expanded in the respective countries following democratization. Still, even with the expansions post-democratization, social policies remained limited and inadequate in the three countries. As an indication, social expenditure as a percent of GDP in 1995 was 3.1% in South Korea, 0.7% in the Philippines, and 1.6% in Indonesia, respectively (ILO 2020a , b , c ). In comparison, social spending for the OECD countries averaged 18% that year, while Turkey and Mexico—generally considered as about on par with the Philippines and Indonesia—spent 3.4% and 3.7% respectively (OECD 2020 ). Thus, even countries on the low end of social spending—such as Turkey and Mexico—significantly outspent their counterparts of Indonesia and the Philippines.

The limited offerings of social policies were particularly stark in light of the economic achievements of the countries. To be sure, even though much of focus on economic performance for countries in the region was during pre-democratization periods, the countries continued to achieve high economic growths post-democratization. This bears noting since it suggests the centrality of the economy and growth for governments in these countries.

Table 1 chronicles the social policies in South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines against economic performance in pre- and post-democratization periods. It shows that social safety nets and social policies were largely limited to government employees and other sectors favoured by the governments in pre-democratization periods. Theory explains that governments in pre-democratized countries, such as authoritarian or military-backed governments, generally follow in the heels of military coups and stop-gap military governments and these latter lack broad-based support. To co-opt opposition, the pre-democratization governments may pursue a number of strategies, including: delivering policy performance, such as economic performance; holding popular, if limited, elections; or institutionalizing politics and society to co-opt opposition (Geddes et al 2014 ; Gandhi 2008 ). Unsurprisingly, the expense of expansive social policies meant they were limited in pre-democratization periods.

Column 4 in Table 1 shows an expansion of social policies in South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines following democratization. This is consistent with theoretical studies that show democratization leads to increased spending as governments use social spending to build and broaden electoral support (Yap 2006 ; Brown and Hunter 1999 ; Reich 1999 ). In particular, governments in new democracies are incentivized to increase expenditures, particularly since the emerging institutions and rules may foster immediate accommodations to constituencies and discourage long-term planning. Still, notwithstanding the increases in social policies, they remained considerably less extensive and generous in East and Southeast Asia than western welfare regimes (Ratigan 2017 ).

Not surprisingly, crises such as economic or financial crashes provide shocks that bring to light inadequacies in social policy coverage in countries. Problematically, as will be made clear in the next section, growth-centric recovery from such crises generally papers over gaps in social policies; this compromises growth in the medium- and long-term because of added economic vulnerabilities, and also undermines political stability and social relations. We turn next to the AFC and GFC and the growth-centric recoveries in South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia.

Crises, Growth-Centric Recoveries, and Social Policies

Economic achievements across decades in East and Southeast Asia in general, and the three countries in this study in particular, likely dulled critical assessments of the economies or the inadequacies of social safety nets in the countries. It is fair to say that the AFC blindsided the international community; notwithstanding, analysts made up for lost time and the misstep with unremitting analyses of how governments in the region, who could do no wrong before the crisis, were unable to get anything right since (Cha and Yap 2019 ). Generally, these advocated for free market reforms to further open the economies.

In this section, we show that free market reforms in the context of the growth-centric recovery strategy in the region accelerated the casualization of the labour market to the detriment of economic fundamentals (Bernanke 2009 ; Stiglitz 2000 ; Reinhart and Rogoff 2004 ). At the same time, the AFC and subsequent GFC illuminated the extent to which social policies were underdeveloped: large segments of the populations in the respective countries remain without benefits or protection, despite the social policies in place.

In brief, in the face of the pressing demands of economic recovery and social policymaking, governments in the three countries stuck with the modus operandi of prioritizing the economy rather than reprioritizing social policies with economic recovery. The growth-centric focus on recovery to economic normalcy in these countries means that social policies adopted under crises were piecemeal responses aimed at averting further immediate fallout from the crises and, thus, mostly weak, inadequate, ineffective, and, easily scuttled following the crises. These become apparent with the subsequent crises: thus, the AFC shed light on the inadequacies of social policymaking, the GFC illuminated ongoing ineffectual social policy responses, and Covid19 revealed the perilous conditions that remains across countries for vulnerable labour and the poor, particularly women, youths, the elderly, migrant workers, and those in the informal economy. These persistent social, political, and economic weaknesses have contributed to the deterioration of social relations and political stability across the three countries.

Economic Policies and Consequences

Table 2 summarizes the AFC and GFC policies adopted and the economic consequences from the policies. It is useful to point out that the growth-centric economic recovery for the AFC was due in no small part to the demands associated with the IMF bailout of countries from the AFC: in particular, stringent conditions of the IMF bailout pegged funding to the recipient country’s economic performance. Under these circumstances, the governments in the three crises-countries, all of which received IMF bailouts, may have little choice but to double-down on economic revival.

Thus, among the remedies adopted to deal with the crisis was the establishment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a lender of last resort for the crisis-countries. This turned out to be a double-edged sword. Specifically, the IMF financial rescue package tied aid to the countries’ commitments to high interest rates, severe cuts in government spending, accumulating foreign exchange reserves, and also non-financial structural changes such as market reforms and labour market deregulation for the domestic economy, among other conditions; further, continuation of aid from the bailout was pegged to recoveries in the countries as measured by economic output, debt repayment and budget surplus (Radelet and Sachs 1998 ; Stiglitz 2000 ; Cooke and Jiang 2017 ).

In the years since the AFC, there is also increasing agreement, including from the IMF, that a number of the IMF measures which focused on growth-rebound deepened the crisis: for instance, the high interest rates and constricted domestic spending are widely considered to have worsened conditions. And, the IMF’s stipulation of the quick shut-down of unviable financial institutions contributed to panic runs on the bank, to which foreign lenders responded by rejecting further discounts of loans, which squeezed the capital market even tighter (Radelet and Sachs 1998 ; Stiglitz 2000 ; Fischer 2000 ).

It is no small irony that the uncompromising conditions of the IMF bailout of countries during the AFC led to the under-development of the financial markets in the region that effectively isolated countries in East and Southeast Asia from the machinations that preceded the GFC (James et al 2008 ; Bernanke 2009 ). Largely following from the IMF conditions, then, the Asian economies missed out on the risky subprime and derivatives market that underpinned the GFC, due in part to stricter policies and the constricted foreign lending as a result of the AFC and in part to the underdevelopment of financial markets in Asia as a result of the uncompromising bailout (Pempel 2015 ; James et al 2008 ; Bernanke 2009 ). Table 2 lists some of the economic reverberations: thus, for instance, while growth figures may suggest that the countries recovered from the AFC, deeper examination of non-performing loans or unemployment rates shows the economies struggled longer and harder to stay afloat as a result of the growth-centric focus (Stiglitz 2000 ; Haggard 2005 ; Radelet and Sachs 1998 ).

In consequence, Asia’s exposure to the GFC was limited: the subprime loss in Asia excluding Japan was US$10.8 billion—Japan itself, which was not subject to the conditions of the IMF’s bailout, carried US $ 8.7 billion—while the total “reported write-down and credit losses of the world’s 100 biggest banks and securities amounted to US $ 379 billion” (James et al 2008 , p. 25). In relative terms, Asia’s exposure excluding Japan was “less than 3% of the global losses”; including Japan, it constituted only 5% of global losses (James et al 2008 , p. 25). The limited exposure of East and Southeast Asia to the financial GFC meant that economic downturn for countries in the region followed from the global trade slowdown rather than the financial crisis itself. Figure 1 depicts GDP growth in South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines from 2000 to 2019; it shows that the economies largely averted negative growths and, further, growths in the high single digits were recorded across the countries a year after the downturn in 2009.

Source: World Bank Databank ( 2020 )

GDP Growth (constant) in South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines, 1996–2000.

The economic travails from the growth-centric recovery for the AFC, then, left countries in East and Southeast Asia, including South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia, relatively unscathed by the GFC (Bernanke 2009 ; Dutt 2013 ). And, the IMF condition—to rebuild foreign exchange reserves—also meant the economies became largely independent from the international capital market; instead, their large foreign reserves allowed the economies to fend off external shocks (Bernanke 2009 ; Dutt 2013 ).

However, it also clear that the course of recoveries for East and Southeast Asian economies rested on an export-economy focus. While that provided current account surplus to the surmount the GFC hump, it also undermined their respective domestic economies. Specifically, the growth strategy in post-AFC and -GFC East and Southeast Asia is one that relies on external demand through the export-economic focus that built large foreign reserves but also contributed to the “global imbalances” in trade and capital, with the easy capital inflows into debtor nations pinpointed as a precipitant of the GFC (James et al 2008 ; Bernanke 2009 ). Domestically, this growth strategy failed to channel the high domestic savings into domestic industries; instead, with capital–labour ratio declining, it fuelled a “race-to-the-bottom” wages with increasing casualization and non-standard employment for workers (Cooke and Jiang 2017 ; ADB 2005 ). Consequently, standards of living and welfare in the region continue to fall short of popular needs (Bernanke 2009 ; James et al 2008 ). We turn next to social policies and their development under the crises.

Social Policies Under Growth-Centric Recoveries

The growth-centric economic rebounds from the AFC and the GFC, rather than a new normal that reprioritizes medium- and long-term social policies, means that social policies fell easily to the wayside (Bernanke 2009 ; de Haan 2014 ). To be clear, social policies were adopted during the crises; nonetheless, their scope fell short of needs and the schemes suffered from coverage, adequacy, impact, and implementation problems.

Thus, social policies adopted under growth-centric recoveries in South Korea suffer from the general problems of coverage, adequacy, impact, and implementation, so that even as policies expanded, they failed to provide needed social support to large segments of the population. For example, unemployment insurance in South Korea supplemented labour flexibility and international ownership that led to high informal unemployment; further Kwon and Holliday ( 2006 ) point out that part-time and temporary workers were excluded so that, as a result, in practice, only 52% of salaried workers were covered (246). As another example, the National Basic Livelihood Security was implemented in 2000 as a public aid program to maintain basic living standards following the AFC; however, eligibility was strict, which severely limited coverage (Lee 2015 ). This became apparent with the GFC: while the scheme extended benefits to 3% of the total population, or 1.5 million, studies estimated in 2013 that an additional 1.2 million who should receive benefits were deemed ineligible (Lee 2015 ; Kwon and Holliday 2006 ). In 2015—eight years following the GFC—the program was overhauled to improve coverage and benefits.

Similarly, in Indonesia, social policies such as the JPS that were enacted in the heels democratization and the AFC was found lacking across coverage, adequacy, impact, and implementation: for instance, separate assessments by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Overseas Development Institute (ODI) found a large number remained outside of the JPS scheme, with many of the eligible poor not receiving benefits even as many non-poor collected them (Sumarto 2006 ; ADB 2012 ; Suryahadi et al. 2015). As a result, and with the onset of the GFC, a community health insurance initiative, Jamkesmas, fully subsidized by the government that allowed local governments to design programs for their locality had to be adopted. In addition, political will behind the social policies was weak: thus, the JPS, adopted in 1998, remained in incubation until 2004; meanwhile, a consolidated National Social Security system, debated since 2004, was finally enacted only in November 2011, following the Law on Health Social Security Providers (No. 24/2011) which created the Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial - Kesehatan (BJPS, the Social Security Administration), with targets for universal health insurance coverage and work injury, old age and death insurance (Harimurti et al 2013 ; Pisani et al 2017 ).

In the Philippines, successive presidents since democratization have adopted pro-poor platforms in election campaigns but few successfully translated these into practice. Consider President Estrada, elected on a populist platform in the heels of the AFC: he spectacularly failed to deliver on his program of subsidised health care for the poor (Lingap Para sa Mahihirap, or Looking after the Poor), due mostly to corruption (Kim and Yoo 2015 ); in 2001, the President was ousted from office for corruption by the People Power 2 protests. President Arroyo, who stepped into the office following Estrada between 2002 and 2010, did not fare better for much her tenure, even as the country held to a strong 6% average economic growth prior to the GFC and despite her poverty reduction programs. Instead, the growth failed to translate into significant job-creation: indeed, Coronel ( 2007 ) cites an ADB 2006 report that found the country’s performance on malnutrition, education access, and water availability on par with the poorest countries in the world, including Myanmar and Papua New Guinea (182).

Importantly, there were also high notes for social policies during these recoveries that give reason for optimism regarding the former’s effects. Thus, in Indonesia, local autonomy Laws No. 22 and 25 in 1999 which devolved administration of government sectors excepting security and defense, foreign policy, monetary and fiscal matters, justice, and religious affair, to district and municipal governments effective 2001, and the institutionalized elections for local executives, saw local governments step up to develop popular social policies, particularly health coverage, in order to win local support for office (Choi 2005; Nasution 2016 ). One such standout was Gede Winasa in the Balinese district of Jembrana, which, importantly, is one of the poorest areas in the country. Winasa initiated a health program for outpatient services for all residents, and hospitalization for the poor, and the significant improvement in health services and mortality rates led to Winasa’s election as district head with 90% of the votes (Pisani et al. 20,187). It also drew widespread attention to health schemes, and motivated the nationally-run Askesin health scheme in 2005, which in turn became Jamkesmas in 2008 (Pisani et al 2017 ).

Likewise, in the Philippines, with the GFC and further motivated to build constituency base to offset the attempted impeachments in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008, President Arroyo got behind the 4Ps (Patawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program), a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program piloted in 2007 and formally implemented in 2008 (Coronel 2007 ; Kim and Yoo 2015 ). President Aquino III, 2010–2016, significantly expanded the program, and took the original 320,000 households or 1.2 million in population terms, to the 4.4 million households in 2015 or approximately 18 million in population of 103 million total population (Acosta and Velarde 2015 ). It has become the most successful social safety net in the country and touted by the World Bank as “one of the most comprehensive poverty targeting programs” in the world, targeting education and health through grants provided in exchange for keeping children in schools, maintaining basic healthcare for children as well as expectant mothers (World Bank 2020a , b ; Acosta and Velarde 2015 ). With an estimated 5.2 million households at poverty level, or about 21.6% of the population, the program covered most of its target in 2015 (Orbeta and Paqueo 2016 ).

In sum, the secondary standing of social policies under growth-centric recoveries largely saw problems of coverage, adequacy, impact, and implementation. Nevertheless, high notes during these recoveries gave reason for optimism. Next, we discuss the effects of growth-centric recoveries on the economy, politics, and society in subsequent decades.

Growth-Centric Recoveries on Economy, 10 Years on

Governments that prioritize the economy often characterize such efforts as beneficial to all: growth trickles or filters down across all sectors, and does so more efficiently than deliberate state intervention (Headey et al 2000 ; Stiglitz 2016 ). However, studies show otherwise. For instance, Headey et al ( 2000 )’s study of the US, Netherlands, and Germany between 1984 and 1999 show that growth did not trickle down better or more efficiently in the US than either Netherlands and Germany; in fact the US did worse than either country in improving living standards across the population. Further, economic growth in the US did no better than either other country, to reveal no upsides to chasing economic growth over welfare goals. Recent studies across developed and emergent economies continue to corroborate the absence of efficient trickle-down growths (Stiglitz 2016 ). And, the Human Development Report ( 1999 ) points out that “real wages take an average of three years to pick up again, and that employment growth does not regain pre-crisis levels for several years after that” (4). In this section, we provide evidence that growth-centric recoveries negatively impacts the East and Southeast Asian economies in at least three ways: increased dualization of the labour markets that does not improve with growth levels; poor earning quality; and vulnerable groups including women, youths, elderly, and the disadvantaged disproportionately and heavily comprising casualized and temporary labour.

Specifically, extant studies show that financial crises contribute to the further dualization of labour markets (Reinhart and Rogoff 2004 ; Eichhorst et al. 2017 ; Steindel 2009 ; Basso et al. 2011 ). Thus, even as financial crises lead to large redundancies across sectors, recovery is generally uneven across market sectors as well as socio-economic groups. Instead, policies targeted at hastening recovery broadly are often less effective at redressing conditions for targeted groups: women, youths, the elderly, and the disadvantaged are particularly vulnerable. Disparities in the labour market, then, widen; this increases duality in the labour market, which continued economic growth is unlikely improve.

Evidence from the three economies corroborates this. Thus, the countries in this study saw recovery success at the macro-economic level: for instance, Korea’s per capita income stands at US$31,380 in 2018, compared against the OECD member-average of US $40,427. However, alongside these positive numbers are dismal ones: as an example, South Korea’s earnings quality, measured in constant prices with purchasing price parity (PPP) was US$10.39 for the most recent data available in 2014 (OECD Stat 2020 ). This fell in the lower half among OECD members, and was higher than Greece, which reported US$9.70 but less that Slovenia, which was US$14.49 (OECD Stat 2020 ). Likewise, per capita GDP in 2018 for Indonesia and the Philippines at US$3,893 and US$3,103 respectively, which represented their best performance to that date, and placed both countries above the performance of lower middle-income countries (US $2217); however, measured in constant prices with PPP, both countries fell below the performance of lower-middle income countries (World Bank Databank 2020 ).

Further examples of economic vulnerabilities is seen in the increased dualization of the labour market in South Korea following the consecutive financial crises. In 1998, average tenure for jobs was 6.1 years in the country; this fell to 5.9 years in 2016, with 30.9% in employment for less than 1 year. In contrast, the OECD average was 9.3 years in 2016, which increased from 9.0 in 2005, while 17.6% of jobs across the OECD were for less than 1 year (OECD 2018a ). Tellingly, job tenure in South Korea remains the lowest across OECD members.

Another area of grave concern for South Korea is youth employment, i.e., the 15–24 youth group, given findings of unemployment and underemployment scarring that affects long-term production and the country’s aging population (Arulampalam et al 2001 ; Brandt and Hank 2014 ; Mavromaras et al 2015 ). Unemployment and underemployment scarring refers to the loss in human capital through work experience and general skills as a result of unemployment spells that affect future earnings, so that future earnings would be lower than if such unemployment or underemployment had not occurred (Arulampalam et al 2001 , p. F577). In South Korea, unemployment rate for the 15–24 age group was 3.85, 7.3% and 15.5% in 1996, 1997 and 1999 respectively; in 2019, it was 11% (Global Economy 2020 ). Employment for that age cohort, then, never recovered to pre-crisis levels. Meanwhile, the employment to population ratio of the 15–24 age group is 27% in 2019; the same ratio is 41.3% among OECD-members (World Bank Databank 2020 ). These indicators point to poor long-run economic outlook for the country.

For emerging economies such as Indonesia and the Philippines, the size of the informal economy, particularly employment in the informal economy, represents a significant economic vulnerability for medium- and long-term growth, to the extent that the International Labour Office (ILO) has adopted the formalization of the informal labour market as a key development goal for the 2030 agenda (OECD 2018a , b ; ILO 2020a , b , c ). The informal labour market is characterized by job insecurity, with lower wages, rights, benefits, working conditions, training, and protection than the formal labour market (Cooke and Jiang 2017 ; OECD 2018a , b ). In Indonesia, 76.5% of the workers were employed in the informal market in 2018 (World Bank Databank 2020 ). As reported by the OECD for 2016, this Indonesia’s informal employment rate is the second highest compared to its peers of nine countries in Latin America and Africa; further, the number of youths (15–24 years) and elderly (over 55 years) in informal employment exceed even this high rate (World Bank Databank 2020 ). Similarly, in the Philippines, the last survey completed in 2008 with UN funding pegged 70% of the workers in the informal market; more recent Labor Force Surveys by the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) estimates informal workers as comprising 62.8% of the workforce, which is not far off the estimates of 70% by the ILO (Bersales and Ilarina 2018).

To summarize, evidence from South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia show that economic fragilities persist even as the countries may have achieved economic normalcy in terms of growth. Next, we show the effects of growth-centric focus on society and politics.

Quantitative Evidence: Growth, Society and Politics

Economic vulnerabilities are not the only consequence of the growth-centric recoveries; in this section, we systematically analyse surveys to show that political and social instability increases with a focus on economic normalcy. Specifically, we examine protest activities and social trust to consider the extent to which the increased social and political instability may reflect changes in popular demand for social policies over economic performance.

Our focus on protest takes into account the rise in protests globally, particularly following the severe economic dislocation of the GFC. Further, and notably, protests have packed a punch in the countries in this study, toppling one regime and one government in the Philippines, and one regime each in South Korea and Indonesia. Protests refer to unconventional participation outside of institutionalized processes to influence political or policy outcomes. Previous work on protest activities have focused on how the economic performance—whether personal finance or the national economy—may motivate individuals to protest. However, recent studies show that preferences that lead to protest activities may not be about the economy per se but, rather, over redistributive policies, social programs or against austerity measures that dilute social- or public-goods. At a minimum, then, severe economic crisis may call attention to the lack of social benefits or their vulnerability to reduction with government efforts to redress economic dislocation (Justino and Martorano, 2019 ; Beissinger and Sasse 2013).

Meanwhile, our consideration of social trust is driven by in part by Putnam’s ( 1993 ) work on social capital that spurred studies on social trust and its effects. Specifically, social capital—comprising social or generalized trust, social norms, and associational activities—is seen to facilitate social connections and coordination, and promote social cohesion (Putnam 1993 ; Cook 2005 ). Social trust generally captures trust in others to be upstanding in a social exchange. Studies on social trust show that at the individual level, social trust leads to more socially active, positive, and tolerant participants; at the social level, social trust engenders stronger support for democratic institutions and stronger social solidarity with “people who are different from ourselves” (Rothstein and Uslaner 2005 , p. 45). Social trust, then, is a win–win proposition that enriches individuals and the society that they comprise.

To make the quantitative assessment, we use survey responses over time to study the individual’s preference for economic programs over social policies on their willingness to protest; we also evaluate whether economic growth builds social trust. We rely on the World Values Survey (WVS) for the survey data: WVS has been documenting public opinion since 1981, and is currently conducting the seventh wave of surveys across the globe (World Values Survey 2020 ). The expansiveness of the WVS over time means that data are available for before- and after-crises analyses.

We adopt variables based on their relevance as depicted in the literature and also their availability across countries and time for the three countries in this study. In particular, we examine the effects of four independent variables of interest—government responsibility for providing for everyone; environmental protection versus economic growth; economic growth as primary aim of the country, and satisfaction with household finance—on two dependent variables—social trust and protest participation—controlling for demographics and other relevant controls. Briefly, the first three the independent variables capture popular preferences for social versus economic priorities; the fourth—satisfaction with household finance—represents subjective, egotropic pocketbook interests, which may indicate the effects of economic vulnerabilities on social trust and protest activity. Descriptive statistics for the variables used are tabled in Appendix 1.

The effects of these independent variables are evaluated against two dependent variables: social trust, and protests. Social trust is generally captured in surveys as trust in others to be upstanding in a social exchange; it is reflected in the WVS through responses to the question, “Most people can be trusted,” measured on a 2-point scale (1 = yes; 2 = cannot be too careful). Protests are documented in the WVS by a 2-point (1 = yes; 2 = no) question on political action: have you attended peaceful demonstrations? Both variables are recoded on a 0–1 scale and inverted from the original for analyses and ease of interpretation.

Control variables include the standard demographic controls of education, age, and gender (Yap 2019 ; Gomez and Wilson 2006 ). Other control variables include interest in politics and institutional confidence. Interest in politics captures in part respondent’s facility to follow politics and developments in the country, while institutional confidence—captured with two variables, confidence in the government, and confidence in parliament—takes into account satisfaction with government performance, measured on a 4-point scale, ranging from none at all to a great deal.

What do we expect to find? If economic growth promotes social trust and political stability, then some of the variables capturing economic prioritization, including economic growth as top priority or prioritization of economy over environment will be statistically significant and positive. However, if social policies are important, then some of the variables capturing social needs will be statistically significant; these include other priorities over the economy, prioritization of environment over economy, government responsibility, and household finance. We note here that responses to the question on environmental protection fall across three possibilities of prioritization of economy or the environment; given the structure of the question, the categorical responses to the question are recoded into three dichotomous variables, with prioritization of the environment over the economy as one of the dichotomies, pursuing economic growth as a priority as another, and neither environment or economy overriding as a third dichotomy.

Table 3 reports the results of the pooled logit analyses of protests and social trust for the three countries. Columns 1 and 2 report the results for protests for pre- and post-crises periods respectively, and columns 3 and 4 report the results for social trust for pre- and post-crises surveys, respectively. In general, the results support the ascendance of social policies over economic growth to explain protests and social trust, i.e., responses report the importance of social policies in motivating protest mobilization and social cohesion. Also noteworthy are the statistical significance of the control variables, such as gender, education, confidence in the government and interest in politics: the significant variables are consistent with the literature and in the direction expected. Together with the explanatory value of the models as reported by the Wald-chi statistic and the low collinearity variance inflation factor, they lend confidence of the robustness of the model and generalizability of the results.

Thus, columns 1 and 2 show that those who value environmental protection over growth is statistically significant in pre- and post-crises periods for explaining protest, while those who consider neither environmental growth nor growth to be overriding is also significant in pre-crisis periods. Importantly, satisfaction with household finance and economic growth as a priority are statistically significant and negative for protest participation. Put another way, those dissatisfied with household finance are more likely to protest; in the post-crisis situation of economic vulnerabilities, this variable highlights problems that may ensue from economic normalcy recoveries that fail to address social, political, and economic weaknesses. Likewise, those who consider other priorities, rather than economic growth, as important for the country are more likely to protest. Protestors, then, are not driven by the prioritization of economic growth; it follows that prioritization of growth does not enhance political stability.

For social trust, the results for pre-crisis period shows only one of the variables of interest is statistically important in explaining social trust: satisfaction with household finance is statistically significant; that changed following crises and the results report that additional variables of interest to be significant in explaining social trust and in the direction expected. In particular, government responsibility for providing is statistically significant and in the direction expected; also, the variable measuring neither environmental protection nor growth as overriding is statistically significant and positive. In conjunction, the post-crises results suggest reprioritization of society, economy, and politics to be important for social trust.

In sum, evidence from the ground as well as systematic analyses reveal the consequences of social and political instability from a recovery to economic-normalcy where social policies play secondary roles. In particular, evidence from the ground show the failure to reprioritize society, economy, and politics have led to fractures in the form of widening cleavages in politics and society that have also contributed to protests and demonstrations, and fuelled regime changes or government turnover. Systematic analyses of survey data corroborate these conclusions: they show that economic growth fails to promote social trust or political support. Instead, results show that, post-crises, social trust and protests are explained by pocketbook finance concerns as well as broad social policy issues over economic growth. The clear lesson based on the experiences of AFC and GFC recovery for the three East and Southeast Asian countries in this study is this: a new normal that reprioritizes social building, economic growth, and politics with social policies.

Social Policies Under COVID-19

In general, governments have responded to COVID-19 with a slew of social policies for their respective countries, and the ones for the countries in this study are not different. However, as we have shown in the foregoing, what critically matters is not whether social policies are adopted, but whether the social policies constitute a reprioritization to new normal, or if the social policies are secondary to a growth-centric economic normalcy recovery. How well do the social policies that have been adopted with COVID-19 track against recovery to a new normal?

Gentilini, Almenfi and Orton’s The Global Review of Social Protection Responses to COVID-19 site contains a “living-paper” updated to track social policies, specifically social protection policies, adopted across countries since the pandemic hit in early 2020. Footnote 2 Social protection generally comprises social assistance, social insurance, and labor market regulations (Hickey et al. 2018; Handayani 2016 ). The authors show that South Korea, the Philippines, and Indonesia to be among the first documented to battle the economic and social dislocation from the pandemic (March 27, 2020).

Thus, the Philippines implemented five new cash programs alongside its 4Ps scheme specifically as COVID-19 response, to low-income families, those in the informal sector, and the country’s most vulnerable for two months. Other measures include P1.2 billion has been set aside to cover unemployment benefits for a projected 30,000 to 60,000 workers expected to be laid off due to the economic dislocation (Gentilini et al. March 27, June 12, 2020).

Indonesia also adopted a cash transfer program for low-income households, for a period of three months starting in April; in addition, extra funding for a national food subsidy program was adopted to expand subsidies and coverage to nine months. Utility and mortgage waivers have been adopted, and US$200 million set aside to finance health insurance for 30 million workers in the informal labour market (Gentilini et al. March 27, June 12, 2020).

Of the three countries, South Korea may be the most comprehensive, offering programs across social assistance, social insurance, and labour market support. These include childcare program to support homecare in low-income families as children shifted out of daycare, cash transfers for unemployed in low-income households; job seekers’ cash transfer allowance of up to three months for low-income households and a 3-month wage subsidy for employers to retain employees (Gentilini et al. March 27, June 12, 2020).

How well do these policies track against a recovery to a new normal? In general, the social policies are targeted at COVID-19 relief; this is particularly true in the case of cash transfers, which are generally one-off or temporary. Further, while the crop of COVID-19 policies adopted in the three countries are extensive and cover large segments of the poor and the vulnerable, including women, old, youths, migrant workers and the homeless, over a longer period than previous policies, the expansiveness likely speaks more to the extent of the dislocation from the pandemic than to a reprioritization of society, politics, and economy.

As indication that the governments’ quick and expansive policy responses may not represent fundamentally changed priorities, consider that, in the Philippines, business groups are urging the government to spend more to help workers and the vulnerable: by the latter’s estimates, P280 billion is needed, which is more than 10 times the P27.1 billion COVID-19 relief announced by the government in March (Department of Finance March 16, 2020). Consider, too, that the Indonesian government announced on June 3, 2020, a stimulus package of US$ 47.6 billion (Rp 677.2 trillion) to battle COVID-19. Of this, 30% goes to strengthen social safety nets while 42.6% goes to micro, small, and medium businesses, labour-intensive businesses, and tax incentives; meanwhile, Bank of Indonesia has injected US$ 40 billion (Rp 583.5 trillion) into the economy since the beginning of the year to stabilize the financial market, among other operations (Jakarta Post June 4, 2020).

South Korea’s efforts may reflect a reprioritization: the government announced another stimulus package of US $28.8 billion (35.3 trillion won) on June 3, 2020, bringing the total stimulus package to date of US$ 225 billion. Such a reprioritization may align with President Moon Jae-in’s plan for an income-led growth model, which had come under fire from businesses, corporations, the conservative opposition in the legislature. Moon’s income-led growth has received a new lease in life with COVID-19: the President’s handling of the virus has won his Democratic Party and its satellite party a legislative majority of 180 seats, while Moon’s approval rating hit 71% in May (Korea Times May 8, 2020). These circumstances facilitate Moon’s pursuit of his income growth model, with a concomitant restructuring of society, politics, and the economy.

Economic, financial, or even pandemic crises are shocks to countries that illuminate political, social, and economic weaknesses. As governments expend tax dollars, resources, time, and political capital on recovery from the COVID-19 crisis, a key question for the recovery efforts is: should recovery focus on economic growth or a new normal? Recovery to a business-as-usual economic normalcy generally means focusing on an economic rebound that carries with it the burdens of unaddressed fissures, while recovery to a new normal entails reprioritizing society, politics, and economy, usually through committed development of medium- and long-term social policies that gets at weaknesses that were brought to light.

In this paper, we provide evidence of the drawbacks of growth-centric recoveries, and the promises of recovery to a new normal. Specifically, we document the recovery efforts and experiences of three East and Southeast Asian countries—South Korea, Indonesia, and the Philippines—through two crises, the AFC and the GFC, to show that growth-centric focus on recovery to economic normalcy in these countries have contributed to economic fragilities, political instability, and social insecurity. This is an important, given—as we document across the three countries—that it may be tempting to pose economic recovery as a priority that brings widely shared benefits. Our examination challenges this assumption and, instead, joins other findings in the literature that show reliance on broad-based growth policies has not only failed to redress the plight of the economically vulnerable, but also impaired the fundamentals of medium- and long-term growth.

We also find that crises may lead to temporary spikes in social policies with extensions of social policy benefits to the informal market and the vulnerable; however, the focus on getting back to business-as-usual means social policies adopted were not well formulated and, therefore, often scuttled following the crises. As a result, even with the expansion of social policies in the countries in this study, levels of cover remain lower than their peers, especially in light of the per capita GDP levels in the nations. As an indication, public expenditure on social policies in South Korea averaged about 10.4% of GDP in 2015, compared to the OECD average of 20.5%; it is 2.2% in the Philippines and 1.1% in Indonesia for the same period, and this contrasts against 12% in the lower middle income countries and 8.4% in lower income countries (OECD 2019; World Databank 2020).

The importance of social policies cannot be overstated: the systematic analyses of survey data show popular preference for social policies over economic growth. This finding is particularly significant for countries in East and Southeast Asia, where economic growth was touted as a predominant priority. In particular, the evidence shows popular preference for social policies drives social trust and cohesion; further, respondents prioritize social policies over economic growth and will protest in support of such priorities.

Our examination reveals a clear lesson for Covid-19 recovery: it needs to target a new normal. Unfortunately, policies to date suggest that, of the three countries in the study, only South Korea appears to be on track for a new normal that reprioritizes society, politics, and economy with social policies that go beyond a stop-gap for the immediate crises, while both Indonesia and the Philippines have adopted policies that are mostly transient. The scope for change, then, remains high.

Change history

11 november 2020.

Due to unfortunate oversight during the Copy Editing process, the funding note has been omitted. It should be read: Research funding in part by the Research Foundation of Korea, NRF-2018S1A3A2075531, Ministry of Education, the Republic of Korea, is gratefully acknowledged.

We thank an anonymous reviewer for suggesting the need to flesh out the most different comparative case design.

We thank Keetie Roelen for suggesting the resources on the site, https://www.ugogentilini.net/

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Yap, O.F. A New Normal or Business-as-Usual? Lessons for COVID-19 from Financial Crises in East and Southeast Asia. Eur J Dev Res 32 , 1504–1534 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-020-00327-3

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Diversity as a contemporary working reality. Due to globalization, people of various backgrounds tend to work together, more and more so. Does it influence the working process at all? Does the difference between genders, ages, and ethnicities hinder or facilitate business? Should the companies ensure that there’s diversity among their employees , and why? How should the work environments be organized to maximize efficiency?
Personal networking : labor-corporate communication tool. How does the number of people you know correlate with the chances of finding the best partners, workers, and customers? Is it an exponential or a sine curve? Produce real-life examples.
E-business: the world-wide globalization process. Some of the most successful modern businesses operate almost exclusively online. What are the examples? Assess the role of integration in their workflow. What are the overall perspectives of SCM (supply-chain management) in the realities of e-business?
Leadership and business in the modern world. Is there a significant difference in the styles and strategies implemented by the leaders in the 21 century as compared to the earlier eras? How do modern leaders adjust to contemporary business realia? What are the challenges and opportunities? What are the global trends? Produce real-life examples.
Copyright law : is it on the side of the artist or the company representing them? How has copyright law evolved through the times? What drove it so? To what extent does it protect modern artists? How can a copyright corporation exploit it, and to what degree? Produce real-life examples. Are there any court precedents?
Advertisement and consumer behavior . What types of advertisements prove to be the most effective? Back up your data with research results. What are the latest trends in the world of advertisement? What are the advantages and disadvantages of online and offline advertising? What mistakes can be made by a brand that is trying to produce a positive image through advertisement?
Apple : how to turn your brand into a religion. What are the factors behind the success of the Apple corporation? Is it just clever advertising, or is there something more to that? How does Apple build a following of brand loyalists? Does Apple face any difficulties in the realities of the modern harsh brand competition? What are your predictions for the nearest future of Apple corporation?
Word of mouth: a fossil or a gem? Who usually relies on this form of advertisement the most? How can an already well-established corporation benefit from it? How does word of mouth differ from other types of advertisement? What are the advantages and disadvantages? Produce real-life examples of a brand’s or organization’s success due to word of mouth.
Facebook and business . How can Facebook be used as a modern platform for conducting business? Does it have any advantages as compared to other online platforms? What are the disadvantages? What successful companies use Facebook as a business platform?

Pay for performance: a source of loyalty or displeasure ? What’s the best strategy for an employer to link pay and performance? Should pay increases be dependent on just the performance of an employee, or should other factors also be considered? Back up your reasoning with research results.
Local customization vs. global standardization. What are the pros and cons of each of the approaches? What companies are known to implement both strategies successfully? Give examples.
External recruiting vs. Internal promotions . What are the pros and cons of each of the approaches? How can a company implement both strategies successfully? Which is a more cost-effective approach? Why is it impossible to stick to just one of the strategies?
Does a multinational corporation have a motherland? Is it obligatory for a multinational corporation to have a strong presence in its home country? What are the economic benefits or downsides of it? Produce real-life examples.
Management by walking around (MBWA). What is the reasoning behind it, and how is it implemented? Is it a boost for productivity or a stress for employees? Who needs it more – the employees or the manager? Is it effective? Illustrate your point with research results.
The AIDA formula in advertising. What exactly is the AIDA formula? Why is it popular nowadays, and how does it compare to the other formulas for creating advertisements? Is it the key to a successful message broadcasting or a hindrance to creativity?
Free market : an achievable goal or a utopia? What exactly is the concept of a free market? What are the advantages of such a system? What are the disadvantages? Are there any real-life examples, and what can be learned from them?
Family business : pros and cons. Are there any modern examples of a successful family business? What might be the downsides of such a business model? What are the advantages? What can be learned from the examples of exercising interpersonal relations in business?
Franchises vs. “from scratch” businesses. Why having a franchise is a go-to option for a lot of corporations? What benefits does it produce? Are there any downsides? Which business model is easier to maintain? Which business model is more cost-effective?
Marijuana business in the US: state law vs. federal law. What is the current stand of federal law on the issue? What about state law? What is your prediction for the marijuana-based businesses for the nearest future?
Governments vs. private businesses. How does the government manage private businesses in your country? What is the best strategy for a government-private business relationship? How does this relationship reflect on the economy of the country?
The Internet and consumer behavior . How does the Internet shape consumer behavior in modern days? Are there any drastic changes in consumer behavior as compared to ten years ago? Is the Internet just a new platform for advertising, or is there more to that? Produce real-life examples.
The culture of consumerism . What exactly is this phenomenon? Is it really a thing or just a popular penny dreadful? Is it a natural occurrence or an artificial design created by the major companies for increasing profit? What proofs of the latter can be produced?
The best countries to invest into in 2020. How can a country be invested into? Why would some corporations choose to do it? What are the criteria? Is it cost-effective? What are the real-life examples?

Here are some more business research topics to explore:

Outsourcing: its advantages and disadvantages for a business. Is it ethical?
Authors and copyright: which works better, legal names or nom de plumes?
Negotiation tactics : understanding authority.
Oil prices impacts on consumer behavior in Turkey .
Corruption cases: do state officials have a higher chance of succeeding with a request for dismissal?
Juicy Fruit: business strategies and product promotion .
Insider trading : how the nature of the offence and the punishment for it has changed through the decades.
American Airlines: the secret of success .
Alcohol: the advantages of the sale and consumption laws for the society’s well-being.
Organizational change capacity concept .
Death penalty : should it apply for the most severe corporate crimes?
The correlation between wages and employee productivity.
The correlation between strategic management and employee productivity .
The impact of staff motivation on employee productivity.
Managing employee retention .
Low-cost economy: companies benefits and drawbacks .
Sales letter vs. waste bin: how to avoid spam folder?
Startups: how to.
L’Oreal and Procter & Gamble: financial analysis .
Teenagers vs. business: the phenomenon of teenage business.
Logistical system: private and public warehouses combining .
Small business : the basis of economics.
Coca-Cola and PepsiCo: Comparative Analysis .
Third-world countries: how is business done there?
Taxes : types and uses.
The role of corporate lobbyists in American future .
Business ethics: is there a difference from general ethics? What are the laws?
What are the cultural differences of doing business in different countries?
Roadrunner Sport: social and digital media strategies .
The target audience : how to define it and how to attract it?
Crisis management in business.
Call centers outside the US: pros & cons .
Risks: how to calculate them in your business endeavor.
Monopolies : how do they impact the market?
Business dynasties: how does family business operate?
Copyright law : how does it operate?
A gaming lounge: business plan .
Services: what are the most and least popular in the market?
Dell Company: global strategies .
Charity: is it a good advertisement strategy for a business?
How to balance ecology and increasing production.
SunTrust: business strategies in banking industry .
Corporate culture : what company rituals are common in business?
Negotiation and diplomacy in business.
TransGlobal Airlines as a monopoly .
A healthy working environment and its importance in business
Google’s success: a case study .
Brands: what’s their place in the modern market?
American Airlines’ and US Airways merger .
Military crisis: a hindrance or a boost for business?
Small enterprises: what are the challenges?
British Petroleum: the corruption case .
Internet advertisement: is it overtaking the world of advertising?

The psychology behind people’s decision to buy a more expensive product or a higher quantity of it.
Feminism: how does it influence the way women consume?
Hilton’s investments into the Italian tourism sector: causes and effects .
Teenagers and brands: what brands are the most popular among modern teenagers?
Mandatory recycling: how would it affect the prices? Would it be cost-effective in the long term?
Advertising in schools: is it acceptable?
Social media: what marketing strategies are used there? Does it influence offline advertisement?
Tariffs on car imports in Ukraine .
Employee stress : does every company need to offer services of a psychologist?
Sports and art: do corporate extracurricular classes enhance employees’ creativity and result in a healthy work environment?
Walmart company: environmental sustainability .
Eco-friendliness: how can more eco-friendly policies be encouraged in companies and businesses?
The concept of perfect competition .
Personal guns: does the successful handgun production industry depend on their free distribution?
BMW group sustainability plan .
Minimum wage : should it be canceled? Why?
Starbucks, Toyota and Google: missions comparison .
Commerce and retail: what is the future? Will shopping activity move completely to the Internet?
Toyota and Plexus: pricing strategies .
Internet advertising: is it more effective than other types of advertisement?
Tobacco production: should higher taxes apply to the tobacco companies? Should they be obliged to donate to cancer treatment centers?
Alcohol production: should higher taxes apply to alcohol companies? Should they be obliged to donate to alcohol treatment centers?
Xerox: company profile and overview .
Business ethics: how does it influence important decisions made by a company?
Ethics and morality in a business-oriented world.
The rise and fall of Eastman Kodak .
A museum exhibition: how can it be made marketable?
The business guide to sustainability .
Mobile phones: what has facilitated their high sales rates in recent years?
Under Armour: company analysis and strategic alternatives .
International human resources : what are the major challenges and pitfalls?
Corporate rituals: what are the oldest and most rigid ones that are still practiced in companies?
Brainstorming: how effective is it in producing ideas and business solutions?
Healthy work environment: what does it look like, and how can it be created?
Financial crisis: how does it affect business in the US and worldwide?
Famous brands: what are the associated advantages of owning a product of a recognizable and respectable brand? Why are consumers often willing to pay for it more than for a less well-known alternative?
Image: how does it affect the modern business culture and consumer behavior?
Gender: does it influence the ability to manage small and large teams?
Hiring youth: why certain niche companies prefer to employ young people? What are the examples?
Differences in ethnic cultures: how do they influence team-building?
Differences in ages: do they create difficulties in departmental cross-functional cooperation?
Gender: why certain companies prefer to employ more women than men and vice versa? Are efficiency stereotypes empirically and numerically confirmed?
Fitness franchises : why are they more and more popular?
Franchise models: what types are out there? Which would you choose for a coffee house? Other examples are welcome.
Franchise promotion: is it the responsibility of the franchisee or of the franchise holder?
Franchise agreement: which items should be included to save from excessive spending with no reward?
What factors must be considered when choosing the market for business expansion ?
Globalization and consumer behavior: how does one affect the other?
Chinese market: how does it benefit from globalization?
Globalization: will it continue to spread, or will it cease to decrease?
Business clusters: how do they move globalization?
Bank mergers : a wise strategy or a result of failure? When should a bank consider this move?
Bankruptcy : what are the most common reasons for it? Does it necessarily spell the end for a business?
Big-box stores : how to ensure the success of a big-box retailer?
Brand awareness: how to make people remember and recognize your brand?
Competitive intelligence : what are the best ways to gather and analyze information about the business environment?
Consumer loyalty: how to make a consumer develop a behavioral tendency of favoring one brand’s products over the other?
Consumer risk management: what are the best ways to minimize the potential risk of a product not meeting quality standards entering the marketplace? How to make it cost-effective?
Copycat products: why do they enter the market so easily, and what are the ways for a brand to fight for its copyright?
Corporate crime : how is it best for a company to redeem its reputation after being compromised?
Corporate social responsibility : how does this business model help make a company be socially accountable?
People Water: corporate social responsibility .
Customer competencies: how to enable your customers to learn and engage in an active dialogue?
Data security : how to protect data from unauthorized access and data corruption?
Downtown revitalization: how can it be beneficial for a business?
Ruth’s Chris restaurants: SWOT analysis .
Employee coaching: how is it different from managing? How is it best to organize employee coaching in a big / small company?
The “Do no harm” ethical principle in business.
Green products : are they good for a business? How can a company use less packaging, and reduce the amount of disposed toxics?
Industry disruptor: what is a disruptive innovation in business?
Intellectual capital: what are the components and what is the best way to unlock their potential?
Job sculpting: what is the best way to match a person to a job that unlocks their potential to the fullest degree?
Marketing ethics : what are the moral principles behind the regulation and operation of marketing in your country?
Mergers : what are the types, and why do businesses do it?
Organigraphs: how to graphically represent a company’s structure and processes? How are organigraphs different from a traditional organizational chart?
Philanthropy: what are the competitive advantages of corporate philanthropy?
Quality circles: how does it influence business positively?
Regional planning: how to place infrastructure across a large area of land efficiently?
Customer service initiatives: how to learn what your customers dislike, tolerate, and actively appreciate?
Bagel Store vs. Subway: comparative analysis .
Shared services model: why are they cost-efficient?
Short-term financing: in what types of businesses does it apply best?
Starbucks Effect: how does a Starbucks store affect home and property values?
Groupon: daily deal or lasting success ?
Strategic planning : how to establish the direction of a small business?
IBM Corporation: business strategies .
Labour strikes: what causes them? What are the consequences for a business in particular and for the economy in general?
Companies’ ethics: concepts and cases .
Subliminal advertising: how do they work?
Telemarketing: a thing from the past or a relevant method of advertising?
Underage workers: how does employment of minors work?
Underwriting: who provides underwriting services and who receives them?
Undocumented workers: do they have rights, and what are the risks?
Unions: what is their stand in your country?
Whistle blowing: is it regarded ethical in modern business practice?
Work ethic : what kind of belief system is that? Does it have any downsides?
Work-life balance : what are the ways of encouraging and maintaining it?
Business leadership: is it a skill that can be learned?
Stakeholders : what is their impact on the success of a business?
Global unemployment: why is it a worldwide phenomenon? What are the solutions to the problem?
International investment : why is it important to educate the public on its benefits?
International competition: what are the strategic measures of survival for local companies?
Job creation : how can big and small businesses create jobs?
Businesses and oceans: why is it crucial to institute and implement environmentally-friendly approaches?
Ethical conflicts: how to avoid cultural, religious, and political arguments at work?
Organizational environmental pollution: how does it affect consumer trust levels?
Business negotiation: what are the styles of intercultural dialogue?
Excessive work: what are the consequences of overworking ?

Marketing is one of the most prominent entities that govern our world. It’s the cornerstone of business, serving to identify and satisfy customers’ wants and needs. Without marketing, there is no business!

Here are some of the most relevant marketing research paper topics and ideas. Choose one, and you are bound to impress your professor!

Get an originally-written paper according to your instructions!

Coronavirus: a case study. How has COVID-19 affected consumer behavior worldwide ? What about your own country? Are there any glaring examples of inadequate consumer behavior? What are the reasons behind them? How do different businesses deal with the consequences of quarantine? Produce examples of marketing centered around Coronavirus.
Zoom: a case study. How did Zoom manage to become a go-to platform during the Coronavirus outbreak ? Was it the brand’s clever marketing, or did something else influence the consumer choice? How did Zoom manage to outperform the dozens of rival video conferencing services? What are the numbers? Make your predictions on whether the company will be able to sustain its success after quarantine is over.
Gillette #MeToo commercial: a case study. How did the brand express its political stand on a pressing social subject? Did the campaign ultimately succeed in its goal? Did the backlash harm Gillette’s reputation, or was it a sign of successful branding? How did it ultimately reflect on sales? What can be learned from the data?
Xbox Series X: a case study. The Xbox Series X is the successor of the popular Xbox One home video game console. It is scheduled for release in late 2020. How is it advertised? How does its marketing campaign impact user behavior? Is it a fast process? Analyze the concept and the marketing campaign of the product.
Colin Kaepernick in a Nike commercial: a case study. How did the brand use an existing political situation to its advantage? Did the campaign ultimately succeed in its goal, or did it merely taint Nike’s reputation? Was it marketing genius or brand failure? What do the numbers say? What can be learned from the data?
Brexit and consumer behavior. How has Brexit affected consumer buying behavior in the UK? What about the EU? How did it impact currency exchange rate? What businesses benefited from it? What can be learned from the data?
Same product, different branding: a comparison. Two companies are selling the same product – only branding and packaging are different. What influences customers’ choice? Is the price relevant in this equation? What can be learned from the data?
Addictive consumer behavior. What brands are known to inspire addictive consumer behavior? What marketing tools do they employ? Are there any downsides for a business? Should companies be held liable for maniacal consumer behavior?
Corporate social responsibility as a brand marketing tool. How effective is it? Produce examples of brands whose sales increased after a charity or awareness campaign. What can be learned from the data? What are the pitfalls of the CPR approach?
The ROI in athletics. What exactly is return on investment? How is it calculated? Why is there close public attention to the ROI factor in athletics? How can ROI be used as a marketing tool? Produce real-life examples.

Slack: a case study. How popular is Slack as compared to rival platforms offering similar services? How much of its success can be attributed to marketing? Is its success currently on the rise or on the decline?
Uber : a case study. How has Uber become the leading company in its field? Analyze its history. What role did marketing play in its success? Analyze the company’s exit from the Chinese, Russian, and South Asian markets. Why did the company choose to do it? What benefits did it gain by doing so? What’s the current stand of the company?
Facebook : a case study. Facebook has faced a lot of backlash in recent years. How did the company manage it? What are the examples of Facebook’s different takes on marketing influenced by the company’s negative publicity?
Marketing in recession : a case study. The 2008 global financial crisis took a great toll on the markets worldwide. Nevertheless, there are stories of success for new products introduced to the market at the time. What companies managed to successfully roll out a product in the time following the 2008 global financial crisis? Give a case study of such a company.
Microsoft : a case study. How does Microsoft advertise its products? How are traditional storefronts doing market-wise as compared to the recent advertising trend, mobile phone marketing? What choices does the IT giant make concerning mobile ad targeting? Is it successful?
Black Friday : what’s the secret behind the phenomenon? Does it offer real value for money or is it simply a psychological trick of clever marketing?
Digital transformation: how to create an effective digital marketing budget?
Production expenditure: how does marketing affect it?
Jeep company’s marketing .
The Internet of things : what exactly is IoT? What are the examples? How can marketing be incorporated into it?
Volkswagen company’s information technology .
Volkswagen in America: managing IT priorities .
Relationship banking: how has it been influenced by digital promotion and mobile money accessibility? How is mobile banking redefining the customer-bank relationship?
Apple Computer Inc.: maintaining the music business .
Credit card responsibility: how to limit compulsive buying behaviors for credit card holders?
Corporate social responsibility: how do organizations use CSR to reinforce brand equity?
Servus Credit Union Ltd: marketing strategies .
Marketing manipulation tactics: what do brands do to get more customers?
Herfy’s marketing strategy in India .
Social media marketing as an image builder: different ways of communicating your brand image on the YouTube, Tik Tok, Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram platforms.
Consumer motivation on the BevCo example .
Influencers: how can Internet-famous people impact the buying choices of consumers ?

Marketing strategy connting digital devices.

A Coffee shop marketing strategy .
Direct marketing strategies: are consumers equipped enough to shield themselves from it?
The “Do no harm” ethical principle in business .
Maternity: what is the best way to market baby products?
Family orientation: how does it affect marketing in general?
Online shopping : what do buyers look for when shopping online? What attributes do they compare when choosing the product?
Harley Davidson, Naked Juice, and Tropicana Juice: brand perception analysis .
Global marketing: how does it incorporate standardization?
Social class differentiation: how do financial institutions market their products and services differently on the basis of social class?
Snapple Juice: marketing strategies .
Internet marketing: what trends can be expected to dominate the online world in the future?
Marketing and culture : how do advertising strategies vary across different cultures?
The Green Motor Car Company: marketing strategy .
Political campaigns : how can they impact advertising? Produce real-life examples.
Impulsive buying : how does it occur, and how do brands exploit it?
American Marketing Association: promotion strategy .
Loyalty cards: do they boost sales and encourage customer loyalty?
Brand trust: is it possible for well-marketed brands to get away with selling products of substandard quality?
Trust as the way to develop proper company-clients relationships .
Globalization : what is its impact on consumer behavior?
Customer loyalty : what brand attributes result in it?
Market monopoly: what are some of the successful marketing approaches that can help break through it?
Cause marketing : how does it impact a brand’s affinity with its target audience?
Brand equity : what is the effect of discount offerings and consumer promotions on it?
The outcomes of advertising in a recession
Top-of-mind awareness: how is it best achieved in modern times? Produce real-life data.
Event sponsorships and customer perceptions: how to?
Mobile ad targeting: pros and cons of mobile ad targeting based on users’ browser and app history.
Mortgage marketing: how to make customers be able to differentiate between various mortgage options offered by competing banks?
Drones production company marketing plan .
Click baiting: a promising novelty in sponsored posts promotion or a brand-compromising nuisance, best to be avoided for fear of bad associations with the brand?
Who are the consumers of Nivea?
Celebrity endorsement : what’s its impact on ROI for CPG brands?
Comparison advertising: is it effective in building brand equity?
Do consumers prefer purchasing routine grocery products online?
Is earned media perceived to be as important as it appears to be?
Word of mouth: what makes people want to forward content to their friends?
Viral content: how to?
Evolving family structures: what has changed and how to address it with marketing?
Augmented reality : how is it enhancing marketing experiences?
Artificial intelligence: what role does it play in modern marketing?
Advertising to children : how to? What are the pitfalls?
Brand salience: how to?
Humour in advertising: what’s the impact, and what’s the customer response?

As you are very well aware, accounting is all about numbers and measurements. It’s even been called the language of business! That’s why writing a research paper on one of the accounting research paper topics is such a good idea. You are going to master it in no time!

What are the main fields of accounting?

Financial Accounting
Management Accounting
Accounting Information Systems
Tax Accounting

There are carefully selected topics down below that explore each of those fields. Just go there and choose one – it’s that easy!

Taxes and politics. How do organizations fight for the reduction of the taxes they have to pay? How can politicians influence the tax rate in different spheres? Are there any real-life examples of that? How can this situation be curbed?
Financial markets. What are commodities and stocks? What is the role of financial markets in the global economy? Why are there few people who understand financial markets? What issues does it raise? What can be done about it?
Accounting information systems . What are the most popular accounting systems used by businesses nowadays? What are the most modern ones? How rapid is the flow of information today? How does it influence modern accounting? What can be done to advance it even further?
Managing and accounting. How can managerial accounting help a company make better decisions? How does it work? What are the possible examples of successful and unsuccessful decisions made in a company based on the managerial accounting reports?
Personal finances . Why should individuals hire personal accountants? How can this practice be systematized? What are the alternatives? Produce examples of modern mobile accounting applications and free online services. What are the pitfalls to be aware of?
Debt management. Why does such a serious issue exist in the modern world? Produce the current numbers of people for whom debt is a life-governing factor. What is the reason behind the prevalence of this problem? Who may benefit from this situation? How can this be fixed?
Auditing collusion. What is employee / auditing collusion? How can it result in an unfair marketing advantage? Why is it illegal? Produce real-life examples of auditing collusion disrupting marketing equilibrium. What can be done to anticipate and prevent such occurrences in companies?

Below are some other accounting research topics to explore:

Accounting decisions: what are the criteria for making them correctly?
General principles of accounting .

Forensic accounting : how does the investigation process go? What are the role and essential skills of forensic accountants?
Accounting theory: how is it influenced by culture?
Tax assessment: how to correctly assess the tax on organizational earnings?
The 2008 global financial crisis : what factors were the primary cause?
What are the steps on the way to becoming a certified accountant ?
Accounting ethics: what are the modern dilemmas?
Accounting history : what are the historical prospects for the best accounting practices?
Accounting systems: what are the risks in the process of developing their design?
Earnings management: what are the perspectives?
Tax reduction : what are the most effective ways of doing it for organizations?
Managerial accounting: what are the effects of financial markets on management accounting?
Financial fraud : what are the ways to escape it?
Accounting theories: what is their meaning for business?
Nortel Networks Corporation Accounting Theory .
Normative theories: what are the issues with normative theorizing in accounting?
Theoretical concepts: how to implement them in practical accounting?
Earnings management: how to best organize it in a company?
Cash flow: what is the effect of external factors on cash flow in an organization?
Online accounting: can accountancy be effectively based on the Internet?
Offshore accounting: how does it work? What are the pros and cons?
Accounting systems: which are the most effective for accountants?
Tax code: how to?
Islamic banking : how is it different from the European approach?
Financial markets: what are the known commodities?
Financial markets: what is their role in the global economy?
Financial transparency: what are the strategies to make organizational finances transparent?
Cloud computing : what is its role in data management for accounting information systems?
Personal investment: important factors .
The ideal framework for AIS: what does an ideal framework for an accounting information system in multinational cooperatives look like?
Food production company: a financial plan .
Decision-making process: what is the role of AIS in the decision making process for medium / large economic enterprises?
Accounting frauds: analyze three major accounting frauds of the last decade in detail. Why is ethical judgment needed in accounting at all times?
Intellectual capital: how do two major business companies (of your choice) build a relationship between their financial statements and their intellectual capital?
Education for senior executives: how can business education for senior executives influence hedging behavior?
Non-profit accounting: what are its financial reporting requirements?

Project management is the cornerstone of doing business. After all, how can you do anything without organizing it first? You may think, “Oh, but that’s easy… I just do it!” But that’s not how it works in modern business.

In big corporations, the way you organize a project is often synonymous with its eventual success or failure. Project managers need all of their knowledge, skills, and techniques to make projects meet the requirements. Want to look deeper into the processes and secrets behind project management? The idea for your perfect project management research paper is waiting for you down below!

Project management software . Which project management tools dominate the market today? Are they cost-effective? What do they primarily focus on (e.g., cost, scheduling time, etc.)? Analyze different project management software and find out whether they really lead to project success and increase productivity or not.
Humanitarian logistics. How do system dynamics and project management principles affect logistics operations? The need for humanitarian logistics has increased around the world due to the rise in environmental disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.). How can the sustained damages be reduced? Analyze the collaboration between system dynamics and humanitarian logistics. How does it impact flows in the supply chain, stakeholders, and responses? What are the best adaptations of project management theories?
Project delay causes. Identify the leading symptoms and causes of project delays. How does it impact the project life cycle? How do global construction companies cope with it? What strategies have they devised to deal with the issue?
Factors of project selection. What are the primary factors that affect selecting a project? Analyze the shift of project benefits approach towards customer-centricity. What is the reason for it? What is the difference between the two approaches? Which is more effective in modern business?
IT industry and agile project management . What is the impact of agile project management on productivity in IT companies? Analyze it using quantitative research techniques. Measure improvement of productivity, customer satisfaction, and employee satisfaction. Analyze and report the outputs of the data using empirical hypothesis testing methods.
Implementation of project management practices . What is the impact of an organization on how project management practices are implemented? Analyze the more informal and people-focused project management practices that are used in small and medium-sized enterprises. Use mixed methods research techniques such as interviews and surveys. Choose companies from a specific sphere to collect data. Examine the size of the company and how it impacts project management practices.
Communication and quality. How significant is communication in maintaining timely delivery and quality of project activities? Analyze the importance of communication between the organization of a project and its stakeholders (external and internal). How does efficient communication help an organization meet the expectations?
Team conflict dynamics model: what conflict types and team conflict profiles are there? How can they produce resolutions that can lead a project to success?
Culture and conflict management: how different cultures of project managers may influence the methods of conflict resolution they implement? How does a project manager’s background affect the way they identify misdeeds and the way they try to deal with conflicts that arise in their project?
Project misalignment with business objectives: how does it affect the overall project performance?
Project management soft skills : how important are they in the context of project success rates? What is the cost of training, and what are the benefits? How do they help the project achieve the desired outcome?
Psychosocial stressors: how do they impact project manager performance? What types of psychosocial stressors are there? Does organizational culture have any mediating effect? Use real-life data.

Project management research trends: how do they influence project success? What is the relationship between project management research trends and social-economic trends?
Project management maturity factors: how do they influence project success in large enterprises? How come the role of projects has increased worldwide, but the overall number of successful projects hasn’t changed? What is the relationship between project performance factors and organizational project management maturity?
Agile-scrum beyond IT: how can it bring managerial benefits to other sectors? Analyze its potential for the healthcare industry. Illustrate how it may be applied to develop frameworks for quality and timeliness improvement. How can it help deliver healthcare in a large-scale patient setting?
Project completion rate: how do organizational characteristics influence it in the construction industry? Analyze data on project performance using key performance indicators (KPIs). Use social network analysis tools to document organizational characteristics.
Leadership style as a mediator: how to connect collaboration satisfaction and emotional intelligence? What leadership styles are there? What are their roles as mediators between emotional intelligence and collaboration satisfaction?
Effective project scheduling system: what are the effects of the application of this planning and scheduling style in construction projects? Use the critical path method (CPM) in the analysis of drafting and subsequent implementation of an effective project scheduling system for manufacturing renewable energy plants.
Effective project manager appointment guidelines: how to design and implement them for construction companies in XYZ? How do two types of leadership styles, person-centered and team-centered, differ when used by project managers? How can one balance them? What does Archer say on the topic in her Realist social theory? Use the data from your analysis for designing effective project manager appointment guidelines to be implemented in XYZ construction companies.
Controlling costs in project management: a systems approach. Analyze the work of the research and development departments for a US-based consumer goods manufacturer.
Management: power, authority, and influence .
Culture, project performance, and IT industry: what might be the causes of delay and failure due to cultural factors?
CISCO Systems Inc: strategies and management .
Initiation stage of a project: a review. Analyze the work of the US medicine sector.
Similar but different: review the similarities and differences in how people practice project management across the world.
Effective teamwork role for organizations performance .
Competitive advantage: does a company gain a competitive advantage by implementing expert management in a project?
Canbide Corporation: operations management tools .
Critical path analysis: how do project managers plan for it and assess it?
Diversity: management practices and principles .
The uncertainty: how valid is it in lengthy and difficult projects in the US construction industry?
Transformational and transactional leadership models .
The history: investigate and analyze the development and evolution of project management across the past 20 years.
The qualities of an efficient leader .
Understanding the intricacies: how important is the grasp of the project’s intricate nature for its effective management?
McDonalds: management effectiveness .
Benchmarking project management maturity: analyze the benchmark standard of measuring maturity in project management.
Shangri-La Hotels: company management .
Agile project management: how does academic literature help develop its understanding?
The organization of international business .
The PMBOK guidelines: do they prepare managers for handling project risks successfully?
Information management system: practical solutions .
Project management methodologies: how do various prevailing project management methodologies correspond with efficacy? Review the US market.
Subway in the US: management strategies in food industry .
Software development methodologies: how do organizations justify their choices?
Teamwork on project management : how important is it in the US healthcare system?
The concept of change in management .
Software tools: how do different project management software tools correspond with efficacy in the developed world?
Establishment of Ruth’s Chris Steak House in London: how to make a restaurant chain international?
Attitude towards risk: how does project management handle possible risks in the US oil and gas sector?

Package role in design and planning process .
Public procurement: what are the associated challenges for project management in the US IT sector?
Humility and its impact in leadership .
The stakeholder approach: how does a global perspective picture its overall success in adoption and completion of projects?
Management: Holistic Response to Client Issues .
Captiva Conglomerate: management strategies .
Best project management practices: what does the European financial sector tell us about them?
Hewlett-Packard: global supply chain management .
Leadership qualities: does successful project management need them?

Human resource management is one of the most interesting spheres of business. After all, it’s all about people!

There are three major areas of a human resource manager’s responsibilities. They are: staffing, allocating compensation and benefits for employees, and administrating work.

There’s so much you can do as an HR specialist. It’s as people-oriented as a profession can get. It’s always a continuous process, too. You’ll never get bored!

There are a number of questions an HR specialist needs to know the answer to. How to select the best recruits? How to encourage team spirit and teamwork among the employees? How to motivate people? How to appraise and how to punish? All of those questions and more are raised in our selection of human resources research topics!

Training of employees as a performance enhancer. How does training of employees correspond with their performance? Produce real-life data. Use a questionnaire to identify and determine the workforce needs in an organization. Analyze the data by calculating a simple percentage analysis. How much did employee training influence their performance? Was it cost-effective?
Performance evaluation and its impact on productivity. How does performance evaluation impact employee productivity? What is its purpose? What is the difference between formal and informal evaluations? How should a performance evaluation be carried out? Describe each of the steps. What is the influence of a poor evaluation on an employee’s morale and their absenteeism rate? Produce real-life data.
Motivation and its impact on morale. What motivation theories are there? Which are the most popular to utilize in organizations today? What does the process of staff motivation look like? Does it influence employee performance? Produce real-life data. Analyze the data by calculating a simple percentage analysis.
Performance appraisal and its impact on productivity. What is performance appraisal, and how is it different from performance evaluation / employee motivation? Why is it considered to be crucial for the growth and survival of an organization? What is the role of performance appraisal as a strategic factor? Describe what performance appraisal techniques are used in an organization. How does it impact employee productivity? Produce real-life data.
Human resource and its relevance in modern business. Why are the effective acquisition, utilization, and maintenance of human resources considered to be central to the growth of an organization? How can executive initiative utilize human resources profitably for an organization? What are the techniques of sustaining and developing human resources in an organization? How to achieve maximum cooperation between staff and management?
Stress and its impact on the employee performance. What is the effect of stress on workers’ performance? Produce real-life data. Collect data using questionnaires and descriptive survey research design. Present the collected data in tables. Analyze it using simple percentages and frequencies.
Staff training in business organizations. How to identify the training needs of an organization? What is the role of management in staff training and development? What types of training methods are there? What are the effects of training on employee performance? Produce real-life data.

Here are some of the simpler human resources topics to explore:

Employee loyalty: what are the main factors that can increase it?
The cost of prejudice and discrimination on the wprkplace .
Conflicts in the workplace : how to resolve them? What are the most typical ones?
Cultural differences: how can human resource managers work around cultural differences in an international company?

Recruiting students: what are the pros and cons?
Compensation and benefits are the parts of employment relationship .
Employees’ education : should a company pay for it?
Harmful outsourcing of United States jobs .
Outsourcing and freelance workers: what are the pros and cons?
Recruitment : what are the opportunities and risks of recruiting new team members?
How to motivate employees effectively?
HR managers: how to select, recruit, hire, and educate human resource managers?
Legal aspects of human resource management .
Overqualified employees: how should an HR manager deal with an overqualified employee?
Google company: workforce diversity policy .
Talent hunting and management: what’s the human resource manager’s role in this process?
Character types: what character types are there, and how do they affect the team-building process in a company?
Workplace harassment and bullying: how should a human resource manager deal with such challenges? What strategies of prevention are to be employed?
Diversity : how can a company encourage it? What is its impact on the dynamics in the workplace?
Communication: how to make it effective? How does it affect a company’s success?
Wages : do they affect employee productivity? How to increase employees’ motivation and make it cost-effective?
Assessing employee performance : what are the best ways to do it? What tools and criteria are there?
The role of diversity in the workplace .
Labor laws : what are the most critical issues to be resolved?
Company data : how to protect it in the age of technology?
Equal pay : are staff members paid equally, and how can HR managers address this issue?
Leadership styles .
Health problems: how can they affect employees’ productivity, and how can HR managers address this issue?
Riordan Manufacturing: HR marketing services .
Workplace motivation: what motivates people to work more?
Mergers and acquisitions : what is the role of an HR specialist in these processes?
Managing a diverse workforce .
Employee loyalty: how can HR specialists encourage employee loyalty through developing the job satisfaction factor?
Organizational burnout of employees .
Employee retention: which factors contribute to it?
Salary bonuses: what are their additional benefits? How can an HR specialist identify who is eligible for getting them?
Strategic human resources : is there global competitiveness on it, and why?
Human resources market: describe its demand and supply circle.
Daily childcare: how can it enhance the performance of employees in the company?
Compensation packages : what are they and what is their function? How can an HR specialist identify who is eligible for getting them?
Career planning : should it be more people-oriented, or is it to be centered around companies?
Professional qualities vs. fitting personality: which is more important?
Performance tests: how are they to be conducted?
Do remote interviews match in their effectiveness with personal ones?

The Accountancy , Business , and Management (ABM) research focuses on the basic concepts of financial, marketing, and business management. ABM research explores various strategies employed in the business, marketing, and accounting spheres. It helps specialists in the sphere discern which business theories work best when put to practice.

Qualitative research gathers non-numerical data used to uncover customers’ opinions, thoughts, and trends. ABM qualitative studies use focus groups, observations, and interviews. The importance of the qualitative method have been increasingly recognized in the ABM field as a rich in detail and insightful way of analyzing the current market situation.

The nature of business research is the collection, study, and analysis of various business-related data to acquire detailed information and use it to maximize sales and profit of a business. The employed research methods include qualitative and quantitative types. The importance and benefits of business research can’t be overrated.

A marketing research topic is an issue that a researcher is investigating in their marketing research paper. The topic needs to be specific and well-defined to ensure the success of a research project on market and marketing. Selecting a topic is a challenging part of the marketing research.

Learn more on this topic:

280 Good Nursing Research Topics & Questions
256 Research Topics on Criminal Justice & Criminology
224 Research Topics on Technology & Computer Science
178 Best Research Titles about Cookery & Food
507 Interesting History Topics to Research
193 Best Education Research Topics & Ideas
120+ Micro- & Macroeconomics Research Topics
201 Research Topics on Psychology & Communication
512 Research Topics on HumSS
301 Best Health & Medical Research Topics
521 Research Questions & Titles about Science
A List of Research Topics for Students. Unique and Interesting
Good Research Topics, Titles and Ideas for Your Paper
Gale Databases: Gale
Writing a Research Paper: Purdue OWL
What are the Topics used in Research Starters – Business? EBSCO Connect
What should be a good topic for research related to Accountancy, Business, and Management? Quora
The difference between quantitative vs. qualitative research: SurveyMonkey
Understanding Quantitative vs. Qualitative Research: Medium.com
PhDs in Business & Management: Five Hot Research Topics (TopUniversities)
All Topics: Harvard Business Review
Research topics and projects: QUIT Business School
Browse All Topics: Harvard Business School
Market Research: Entrepreneur
Management Accounting Research: Elsevier
Accounting Research Tutorial: UF Libraries
What Is Management Research Actually Good For? Harvard Business Review
What is Management Research? University of Toronto
The value of management research to managers: The Conversation
Human Resources: Harvard Business School
Research & Surveys: SHRM
Human Resources in Research: UOttawa
BA (Hons) Business Studies: University of Stirling
BA Research: University of Newcastle
Education Studies BA: UCL Institute of Education
Areas of Research: PhD in Management, Michigan State University
Research focus areas in business and government: Victoria University of Wellington
PhD Subject Groups: Business School, University of Edinburgh
Research areas: The University of Sydney Business School
Research topics: Leeds University Business School
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Effects of COVID-19 on business and research

The COVID-19 outbreak is a sharp reminder that pandemics, like other rarely occurring catastrophes, have happened in the past and will continue to happen in the future. Even if we cannot prevent dangerous viruses from emerging, we should prepare to dampen their effects on society. The current outbreak has had severe economic consequences across the globe, and it does not look like any country will be unaffected. This not only has consequences for the economy; all of society is affected, which has led to dramatic changes in how businesses act and consumers behave. This special issue is a global effort to address some of the pandemic-related issues affecting society. In total, there are 13 papers that cover different industry sectors (e.g., tourism, retail, higher education), changes in consumer behavior and businesses, ethical issues, and aspects related to employees and leadership.

1. Introduction

There has been a long history of fear of pandemic outbreaks. The discussion has not focused on whether there will be an outbreak, but when new outbreaks will happen ( Stöhr & Esveld, 2004 ). The events leading to influenza pandemics are recurring biological phenomena and cannot realistically be prevented. Pandemics seem to occur at 10–50-year intervals as a result of the emergence of new virus subtypes from virus re-assortment ( Potter, 2001 ). As the global population increases and we need to live closer to animals, it is likely that the transfer of new viruses to the human population will occur even more frequently. All our society can do is take preventive measures so that we are able to act quickly once we suspect an outbreak. We should also make an effort to learn from the consequences of pandemic outbreaks to prepare our societies for if—and, more likely, when—this happens again.

As we are in the middle of a pandemic outbreak, it is very difficult to estimate its long-term effects. Although society has been hit by several pandemics in the past, it is difficult to estimate the long-term economic, behavioral, or societal consequences as these aspects have not been studied to a great extent in the past. The limited studies that do exist indicate that the major historical pandemics of the last millennium have typically been associated with subsequent low returns on assets ( Jorda, Singh, & Taylor, 2020 ). For a period after a pandemic, we tend to become less interested in investing and more interested in saving our capital, resulting in reduced economic growth. Given the current situation, in which saving capital means negative returns, it is not at all certain that we will be as conservative as we have been in the past. Behavioral changes related to pandemic outbreaks seem to be connected with personal protection ( Funk, Gilad, Watkins, & Jansen, 2009 ), such as the use of face masks, rather than general behavior changes. Our lives, as humans in a modern society, seem to be more centered around convenience than around worrying about what might happen in the future.

On a societal level, we seem to be completely unprepared for large-scale of outbreaks. Our societies are more open than ever; we rely on the importing of important products, such as food, energy, and medical equipment, rather than sourcing them from close to where they are needed; and there are limited efforts to prepare for pandemic outbreaks. The guiding principle of our society seems to be efficiency and economic gain rather than safety. This may change after the current outbreak. It is also important to point out that the principles (eg. openness and global trade) on which society is based have lifted a large number of countries around the globe out of poverty and produced well-developed economies. It is not unlikely that our societies will back-off some of them leading to more poverty in the world.

The COVID-19 pandemic outbreak has forced many businesses to close, leading to an unprecedented disruption of commerce in most industry sectors. Retailers and brands face many short-term challenges, such as those related to health and safety, the supply chain, the workforce, cash flow, consumer demand, sales, and marketing. However, successfully navigating these challenges will not guarantee a promising future, or any future at all. This is because once we get through this pandemic, we will emerge in a very different world compared to the one before the outbreak. Many markets, especially in the fields of tourism and hospitality, no longer exist. All organizational functions are intended to prioritize and optimize spending or postpone tasks that will not bring value in the current environment. Companies, especially start-ups, have implemented an indefinite hiring freeze. At the same time, online communication, online entertainment, and online shopping are seeing unprecedented growth.

2. Interesting research themes

As research indicates that pandemics are reoccurring events, it is very likely that we will see another outbreak in our lifetime. It is apparent to anyone that the current pandemic has had enormous—but hopefully short-term—effects on all our lives. Countries have closed their borders, limited the movement of their citizens, and even confined citizens in quarantine within their homes for weeks. This is a rather unique occurrence, as we are used to freedom of movement, but in the midst of the pandemic outbreak, people have been fined just for being outside. Although our societies seem to be very accepting of these limitations and condemn people that do not follow the rules, but we need to ask ourselves how this will affect the views of our society (e.g., views regarding freedom, healthcare, government intervention). We should also be aware that infrastructure and routines to monitor citizens in order to limit the spread of the virus have been rolled out, and so we should ask ourselves how accepting we will be of monitoring in the future. We must realize that once these systems are in place, it is highly unlikely that they will be rolled back. Furthermore, in some countries, the ruling politicians have taken advantage of this situation and increased their control over the state, suppressing opposing opinions and thus jeopardizing democratic systems. Some of the worst examples are Turkmenistan, which has banned the use of the word “corona,” and Hungary, which is letting Viktor Orbán rule by decree indefinitely.

As previously mentioned, people have been confined to their homes. There has also been a constant stream of news on this invisible external threat from which we cannot protect ourselves. We have been occupied trying to figure out how best to protect ourselves and our loved ones. On top of that, many feel pressure due to losing their jobs or due to working in close proximity to potentially infected people, as society depends on them fulfilling their duty. The consequences of the pandemic outbreak have hit various sectors of society in different ways. People that are working in sectors connected to healthcare must endure endless tasks and very long working days. Additionally, people are losing their jobs at rates we have not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The sectors that have seen the largest increases in unemployment are those that are hedonic in nature and require the physical presence of the customer (e.g., hospitality, tourism, and entertainment), as demand for these services has ceased to exist. The employees in these sectors tend to be younger and female. Past experience also indicates that once someone is outside the job market, it is very difficult to get back in as they will face more competition that may be more competent.

All countries that can are trying to stimulate their economies to keep as much as possible of their necessary infrastructure intact and to keep citizens productive or ready to become productive once the pandemic has been overcome. In order to keep society from deteriorating, people not only need jobs or a way to support themselves but also need access to what they view as necessary products and services. If this infrastructure does not exist, people start to behave in what is considered uncivil behavior (e.g., hording or looting). Countries around the globe have adopted very different approaches to handle the current stress on the job markets and infrastructure. Some countries have chosen to support businesses in order to help them keep the workforce intact, but others with less financial strength cannot do the same. Countries also have directly supported their citizens in various ways. There is an enormous body of rich information that researchers can collect to determine the best approaches for when when and if a major disaster happens in the future.

3. Consumer behavior during COVID-19

Around the globe, societies are in lockdown, and citizens are asked to respect social distance and stay at home. As we are social beings, isolation may be harmful for us ( Cacioppo & Hawkley, 2009 ). Feelings of loneliness have, among other things, been connected to poorer cognitive performance, negativity, depression, and sensitivity to social threats. There are indications that this is happening during the current pandemic, as there has been an increase in domestic violence, quarrels among neighbors, and an increase in the sales of firearms ( Campbell, 2020 ). However, we have also seen an increase in other, more positive types of behavior caused by social distancing that have not been researched. People have started to nest, develop new skills, and take better care of where they live. For instance, they may learn how to bake, try to get fit, do a puzzle, or read more. There has also been an increase in purchases of cleaning products, and more trash is being recycled. At the same time, we are eating more junk food and cleaning ourselves less. People are also stockpiling essentials, panic buying, and escaping to rural areas. This is an indication that what is happening to us and our behaviors is complex, and it would be interesting to study this phenomenon further.

Another consequence of the lockdowns is the extreme increase in the usage of Internet and social media. Previous research has indicated that humans who feel lonely tend to use social media more and, in some cases, even prefer social media over physical interaction ( Nowland, Necka, & Cacioppo, 2018 ). Social media also may bring out the worst in us through trolling or sharing of fake news. This is, to some degree, not as damaging as the “real life” is lived in the physical world and the Internet is an “add on” with, in most cases, limited impact on the physical world. By this, we are able to compartmentalize and distinguish what matters and what does not matter. However, the current situation has made social media the main mode of contacting or socializing with others. In many cases, the Internet is at present also the main way to get essential supplies and receive essential services, like seeing a doctor. The question, then, is what happens to us when the “real life” is lived online and becomes a way to escape the physical world?

As humans, we rely to a large degree on our senses; we are built to use them in all situations of life. Thus, we rely on them heavily when making decisions. However, the current isolation is depriving us of our senses, as we are not exposed to as many stimuli as normal situation. Thus, we are, in a sense, being deprived of stimulation. We are also being told by authorities not to use our senses; we should not touch anything, wear a mask, or get close to other humans. Thus, what happens once our societies open up? How long will this fear of using our senses linger, and will we be over-cautious for a while or may we try to compensate as we have to some degree been deprived of using them? These are just some aspects of consumer behavior; many more are covered by this special issue.

4. Markets during COVID-19

The COVID-19 outbreak is likely to cause bankruptcy for many well-known brands in many industries as consumers stay at home and economies are shut down ( Tucker, 2020 ). In the US, famous companies such as Sears, JCPenney, Neiman Marcus, Hertz, and J. Crew are under enormous financial pressure. The travel industry is deeply affected; 80% of hotel rooms are empty ( Asmelash & Cooper, 2020 ), airlines cut their workforce by 90%, and tourism destinations are likely to see no profits in 2020. Furthermore, expos, conferences, sporting events, and other large gatherings as well as cultural establishments such as galleries and museums have been abruptly called off. Consulting in general and personal services, like hairdressers, gyms, and taxis, have also come to a standstill due to lockdowns. Finally, important industries like the car, truck, and electronics industries have abruptly closed (although they started to open up two months after their closure). There are an endless number of questions we could ask ourselves in connection to this rather abrupt close-down. For instance, how do we take care of employees in such situations? Why are companies not better prepared to handle such situations (e.g., putting aside earnings or thinking of alternative sources of income)? How are the companies and even countries using the current situation to enhance their competitive situation? One of the countries that seem to be using the situation is China that is buying European based infrastructure and technology ( Rapoza, 2020 ).

While some businesses are struggling, some businesses are thriving. This is true for a number of Internet-based businesses, such as those related to online entertainment, food delivery, online shopping, online education, and solutions for remote work. People have also changed their consumption patterns, increasing the demand for takeout, snacks, and alcohol as well as cleaning products as we spend more time in our homes. Other industries that are doing well are those related to healthcare and medication as well as herbs and vitamins. Typically, when studying markets, it is assumed that they are static, a natural conclusion since they tend to change slowly. However, if there is one thing the COVID-19 outbreak has shown us, it is that markets are dynamic ( Jaworski, Kohli, & Sahay, 2000 ) and can move rapidly. Furthermore, a market is not just a firm; it is a network of actors (i.e., firms, customers, public organizations) acting in accordance with a set of norms. These systems are sometimes referred to as dynamic ecosystems that exist to generate value ( Vargo & Lusch, 2011 ). The COVID-19 outbreak poses a unique opportunity to study how markets are created and how they disappear within a very limited time span. It would also be interesting to explore whether the disappearance of one solution for a market may be replaced by another (e.g., combustion engines for electric or physical teaching for online teaching).

5. Predicted lasting effects

Based on past experiences, we have become more conservative and protective after a pandemic outbreak. We save resources in order to be prepared if the unthinkable happens again. Countries are starting to stockpile things like food, equipment, and medicine or prepare to produce them locally. It is also essential for larger global firms to have reliable supply chains that do not break. Consequently, it is very likely that this pandemic will make these firms rethink their supply chains and, probably, move supply chains closer to where they are needed in order to avoid stopping production in the future. Furthermore, authorities have implied that other humans from other countries are dangerous as they may carry the virus. A closed border implies that the threat is from the outside. In addition, international flights are not likely to be an option for many in the coming years. Together, these circumstances mean that countries may become more nationalistic and less globalized. This may be a dangerous development, as long-term protection from the consequences of a pandemic outbreak is likely to require global effort and sharing of resources. Such cooperation is also key to tackle other global challenges that we may face in the future.

6. This special issue

In this special issue, we have invited scholars from different areas of business and management to write brief papers on various aspects of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In total, there are 12 articles in the special issue, which are summarized below.

The first contribution, by Jagdish Sheth, is titled “Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behavior: Will the Old Habits Return or Die?” It explores how the current pandemic has affected several aspects of consumers’ lives, ranging from personal mobility to retail shopping, attendance at major life events like marriage ceremonies, having children, and relocation. The author investigates four contexts of construed consumer behavior, namely social context, technology, coworking spaces, and natural disasters. Additionally, the author foresees eight immediate effects of the pandemic on consumer behavior and consumption. Hoarding—the mad scramble observed at the start of the COVID-19 outbreak—applies not only to consumers but also to unauthorized middlemen who buy products in excess to sell at increased prices.

Consumers learn to adapt quickly and take an improvised approach to overcome constraints that have been imposed by governments. Pent-up demand may lead to a significant rebound in sales of durable products, like automobiles, houses, and large appliances, and some of the realities of COVID-19 will put consumers in a buying mood soon.

Embracement of digital technology, either through online services or information-sharing platforms like Zoom, has kept people connected around the world. Digital savviness will become a necessity, rather than an alternative, for schools, businesses, and healthcare providers. With the onset of lockdowns in many countries, online shopping, including grocery shopping, has become more prevalent.

The desire to do everything in-home has impacted consumers’ impulse buying habits. Slowly but surely, work–life boundaries will be blurred when both tasks are carried out from home. There should be efforts to compartmentalize the two tasks to make this a more efficient way of life.

Reunions with friends and family are now restricted to digital interactions, especially for people who work and live away from their families. We can expect a dramatic change in consumers’ behavior because of sophisticated technology. In addition, consumers may discover new talents as they spend less time on the road and more at home. They may experiment with cooking, learn new skills, and, soon, become producers with commercial possibilities. In the end, most consumer’s habits will return to normal, while some habits may die due to adaptation to the new norm.

The second contribution, “Interventions as Experiments: Connecting the Dots in Forecasting and Overcoming Pandemics, Global Warming, Corruption, Civil Rights Violations, Misogyny, Income Inequality, and Guns,” written by Arch G. Woodside, discusses whether there is an association between public health interventions, national and state/provincial governments interventions, and improved control of the COVID-19 outbreak in certain countries. The paper suggests “ultimate broadening of the concept of marketing” in order to design and implement interventions in public laws and policy, national and local regulations, and the everyday lives of individuals. It also lays out effective mitigating strategies by examining designs, implementations, and outcomes of COVID-19 interventions by examining deaths as a natural experiment.

While COVID-19 eradication intervention tests are being run for promising vaccines, these are considered true experiments, and analyzing the data from these interventions may involve examination of the success of each vaccine for different demographic subgroups in treatment and placebo groups in randomized control trials. Comparing the designs and impact of the current COVID-19 mitigation interventions across nations and states within the U.S. provides useful information for improving these interventions, even though they are not “true experiments.”

The third contribution, “Employee Adjustment and Well-Being in the Era of COVID-19: Implications for Human Resource Management” is written by Joel B. Carnevale and Isabella Hatak. They claim that COVID-19 is becoming the accelerator for one of the most drastic workplace transformations in recent years. How we work, socialize, shop, learn, communicate, and, of course, where we work will be changed forever. Person–environment (P-E) fit theories highlight that employee–environment value congruence is important because values influence outcomes through motivation. However, given the current environment, in which the fulfillment of needs and desires like greater satisfaction, higher engagement, and overall well-being is drastically altered, there is an increased likelihood of misfits working in organizations.

In response to this, organizations need to use virtual forms of recruitment, training, and socialization in lieu of face-to-face interactions. Increasing job autonomy will alleviate the family-related challenges that may arise within remote work environments by providing employees with the right resources to manage conflicting work and family demands. Human resource leaders within the organization must enhance relationship-oriented human resources systems in order to combat the risk of unforeseen and prolonged isolation among single, independent employees and to better prepare them for situations like the current crisis. The field of entrepreneurship can offer insights that can be adapted by organizations coping with the pandemic. Entrepreneurs’ struggles are largely caused by the lack of work-related social support in comparison to salaried employees. Nevertheless, some entrepreneurs are known to overcome these limitations by leveraging alternative, domain-specific sources of social support, such as positive feedback from customers, which ultimately enhances their well-being. Recycling such approaches to identify overlooked or untapped sources of social support is likely to be beneficial for employees given the current work environment dynamic.

The fourth contribution, written by Hongwei He and Lloyd C. Harris, is titled “The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Corporate Social Responsibility and Marketing Philosophy.” The worldwide demand for hand sanitizers, gloves, and other hygiene products has risen because of the COVID-19 pandemic. And, in some countries, there has been a surge in complaints about profiteering and opportunism. As doctors combat the virus, prosecutors are pursuing the opportunistic profiteers who prey on the fearful. Many large corporations have a social purpose and set of values that indicate how much they appreciate their customers, employees, and stakeholders. This is the time for these corporations to make good on that commitment. Some organizations strive to set great examples. For example, Jack Ma, the co-founder of Alibaba, donated coronavirus test kits and other medical supplies to many countries around the world through the Jack Ma Foundation and Alibaba Foundation. Large corporations have often written off the costs of product failures, restructuring, or acquisitions. When writing off losses due to the coronavirus pandemic, it is understandable to pursue the bond established between the brand and consumer. This gesture can turn out to be more meaningful and lasting than when implemented during “normal” times.

On the bright side, the COVID-19 pandemic offers great opportunities for companies to actively engage with their corporate social responsibility (CSR) strategies and agenda. The post-COVID-19 marketplace is going to be irrecoverably different. Organizations will need to re-evaluate their visions, missions, and objectives to account for changes to their customers and competitors, amongst other shifts. A key facet of this is the exponential increase in digital communications and change.

Professors T. Y. Leung, Piyush Sharma, Pattarin Adithipyangkul, and Peter Hosie wrote “Gender Diversity and Public Health Outcomes: The COVID-19 Experience.” Public health is an interdisciplinary subject that involves the social sciences, public policy, public education, economics, and management. Failure to implement a proper public health policy may not only lead to a huge loss of human lives but also shatter the economy; expose the incompetence of public bodies, including governments and political leaders; and weaken the confidence of the general public. We are used to hearing that women are more other-directed and emotionally intelligent, but it has been proven that women are just as good, if not better, in terms of what we think of as male qualities, like being decisive and making tough calls, during a crisis. Prevalent issues like under-representation of women in leadership positions, mismanagement of public health systems, and inaccurate or inconsistent reporting of public health outcomes in the context of the recent pandemic need to be addressed by involving women at all stages of public health management, including planning, decision-making, and emergency response systems. This is important not only for a quick economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis but also to prevent and manage such disasters in future.

The sixth paper in the special issue, “Managing Uncertainty during a Global Pandemic: An International Business Perspective,” was written by Piyush Sharma, T. Y. Leung, Russel P. J. Kingshott, Nebojsa S. Davcik, and Silvio Cardinali. Pandemics like that caused by COVID-19 are not just passing tragedies of sickness and death. The ubiquity of such a threat, and the uncertainty and fear that accompany it, lead to new consumer trends and norms. People become both more suspicious and less susceptible. The crisis also shines a light on the importance of international business research, which has been overlooked in the years leading up to this crisis. Social and informational uncertainty are likely to have economic repercussions.

As pointed out by the author, successful outcomes of social distancing and other restrictions are highly dependent upon societal acceptance and following through with restrictions. Social uncertainty and unrest among consumers due to being under lockdown for months could lead to a huge stifled demand for the products they missed. In this context, Samsung, a South Korean giant in consumer electronics and home appliances, may be a great case study during the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. Samsung established a huge manufacturing network over the years, with factories in multiple locations. This was done due to foresight of the risk of single sourcing, the need to fulfill large production demand, and the desire to reduce its dependence on China. This strategy has helped Samsung shift its production from one location to another during the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, thereby facing just a slowdown and not a complete shutdown of production. Similarly, to compensate for the closure of retail stores, Samsung has leveraged its contracts with mobile phone retailers and Benow (a payment and EMI technology firm) to create an e-commerce platform so that its retail business can continue to sell and deliver products directly to customers.

The seventh contribution, “Competing During a Pandemic? Retailers Ups and Downs During the COVID-19 Outbreak,” was written by Eleonora Pantano, Gabriele Pizzi, Daniele Scarpi, and Charles Dennis. The authors note that retailers who were not quick to adapt and factor COVID-19 into their operations are currently facing an existential crisis. The authors also highlight that retailers can minimize current and future business impacts by addressing four major emergencies.

First, retailers can identify and execute controllable activities. They must identify, optimize, and re-access existing technologies and business models. Specifically, they must understand how their stakeholders operate and interact to reduce response time and optimize communication channels. Second, all retailers, but especially grocery stores, are revisiting their business continuity plans to reassure customers that their needs will be met and manage the inevitable supply chain constraints and highs and lows caused by volatile demand. These retailers are prioritizing critical business activities and creating contingency plans for disruption. Third, retailers need to have an understanding of their financial needs as well as the essential role they play in their communities. For some regular customers, an open and well-stocked supermarket will reassure them that they are being cared for. Fourth, messages that retailers spread online during emergencies need to include information about products’ availability on the shelves and at digital outlets; control panic buying by restricting the quantity that customers can purchase; devise and implement protection plans for consumers and employees; contribute to overall public health; and use surveillance measures to limit the spread of the virus. To these ends, retailers need to improve their customer relationship management systems and promote safe interactions with customers (e.g., through online chats with employees) to provide real-time customer assistance.

In Fabian Eggers’ contribution, “Masters of Disasters? Challenges and Opportunities for SMEs in Times of Crisis,” he identifies small- to medium-sized businesses with low or unstable cashflow as particularly vulnerable during crises, as they are currently struggling for profitability. Studies reveal the interconnectedness between finance and strategy, particularly entrepreneurial orientation and market orientation in strategies. The paper highlights that a combination of entrepreneurial orientation and market orientation can lead to lean and flexible marketing efforts, which are particularly valuable in times of crisis. In addition, entrepreneurial orientation and market orientation can be combined into an entrepreneurial marketing post-disaster business recovery framework that highlights that seeking opportunities, organizing resources, creating customer value, and accepting risk are markedly different in a post-disaster context.

Sandeep Krishnamurthy contributed with “The Future of Business Education: A Commentary in the Shadow of the Covid-19 Pandemic.” The paper highlights that social distancing is prompting educational institutions to rethink how they are connecting with their student bodies. Spatial interaction is becoming the new norm, and the blurring of physical and virtual communication is likely to continue until the pandemic is overcome. Globally, the higher education system will undergo a decade of radical technology-led transformation, according to the author. The author identified five trends that will revolutionize how we educate after COVID-19:

1. The Algorithm as Professor – Rather than taking a traditional route and learning from a human professor in classrooms, students will learn remotely from an algorithm. The AI-enabled algorithm will provide customized personal learning experiences. Students will be able to quickly master rudimentary and routinized tasks. Then, the algorithm will prepare them for an in-person experience, where a “warm body” will engage them in Socratic dialogue.
2. The University as a Service – Traditionally, we have followed a linear formulation of society. Students go through K-12 education, some get an undergraduate degree, and some go on to further studies. However, the current and future environment is too volatile to sustain this educational structure. Students will need to learn what they need when they need it. Personalized, continuing education will become the norm.
3. The University as Assessment Powerhouse – In a world characterized by AI and automation, learning can come from many sources. Students will learn from each other, algorithmic systems, and public information. However, universities will continue to have a powerful place as assessors of learning. Students will come to universities to gain objective credentials based on powerful assessments of learning.
4. Learning Personalization to Support Diversity – Students of the future will have access to multiple pathways to learn the same content. For example, a course may be available through algorithmic engagement, animation/video/augmented reality, face-to-face instruction, or any mixture thereof. Using assessment data, the university of the future will be able to pinpoint the learning needs of each student and provide a personalized experience.
5. Problem Solving Through Ethical Inquiry - As the influence of artificial intelligence and automation grow exponentially in our lives, there will be a great need for students to become problem solvers through ethical inquiry. Clearly, the future will not simply be about what the answers are; it will be about which problems we wish to solve, given what we know. Students will need to become more comfortable with the need to evaluate AI algorithms based on their efficacy and their ethical foundation.

Contribution number ten, “Consumer Reacting, Coping and Adapting Behaviors in the COVID-19 Pandemic,” is written by Colleen P. Kirk and Laura S. Rifkin. In it, the authors explore numerous consumer insights during a major pandemic outbreak. Mainly, they examine consumer behaviors across three phases: reacting (e.g., hoarding and rejecting), coping (e.g., maintaining social connectedness, do-it-yourself behaviors, and changing views of brands), and longer-term adapting (e.g., potentially transformative changes in consumption and individual and social identity). The authors also identify a number of negative aspects of the pandemic that will likely impact consumer behavior. As they state, given the mandatory close quarters people must keep due to stay-at-home requirements, domestic abuse may be on the rise. In addition, throughout history, pandemics provide an excuse for increased racial and anti-immigrant biases.

In “How Firms in China Innovate in COVID-19 Crisis? An Exploratory Study of Marketing Innovation Strategies,” written by Yonggui Wang, Aoran Hong, Xia Li, and Jia Gao, the authors explore how firms in China worked to make their marketing strategies a success. They do so by identifying the typology of firms’ marketing innovations based on two dimensions: the motivation for innovations and the level of collaboration in innovations.

The authors outline four innovative strategies to combat crises for businesses. The responsive strategy works predominantly for firms that involve physical contact, but it can easily be transferred from offline marketing channels to online channels. A collective strategy can be implemented by firms that are highly affected by the crisis, which need to develop new business by collaborating with other firms during the crisis. A proactive strategy is for firms that are less affected by the COVID-19 crisis (mostly online businesses) to develop new businesses to meet the special demands of existing customers during the COVID-19 crisis. Firms that are less affected during the COVID-19 crisis can take an alternative approach: a partnership strategy. Firms should usually develop new offerings through collaboration with other firms.

Professors Amalesh Sharma, Anirban Adhikary, and Sourav Bikash Borah contributed with “Covid-19 Impact on Supply Chain Decisions: Strategic Insights for NASDAQ 100 Firms using Twitter Data.” During black swan events like the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have severe long-term consequences, a deep understanding of business risks can help organizations establish the right plan. In this article, the authors identified supply chain challenges faced by companies using their Twitter data. To develop insights from the findings, the authors constructed unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams that revealed the supply-chain-related aspects that gain attention on Twitter.

A topic analysis was performed to identify keywords used in discussions about COVID-19. The obtained insights show that the greatest challenge for the organizations was accessing realistic customer demands. A pandemic may increase or decrease demand for specific products, making estimation of realistic final customer demand more difficult and more urgent to address. Some user accounts suggested that organizations are still lacking in terms of technological readiness and that companies are looking to gain visibility across value chains. There are growing discussions about building supply chain resilience by identifying risks. Many organizations are not only focusing on social sustainability but also turning their attention toward environmental sustainability. To deal with the challenges brought on by unprecedented times, the leaders of organizations must reimagine and redesign the supply chain; rely on technology such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and blockchain in their supply chain designs; and focus on sustainable supply chain.

Finally, Marianna Sigala wrote “Tourism and COVID-19: Impacts and Implications for Advancing and Resetting Industry and Research.” Tourism is experiencing a rapid and steep drop in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the tourism industry’s proven resilience in other unprecedented times, the impact of the current pandemic will likely last longer for international tourism than for other affected industries. However, the tourism industry should not only recover but also reimagine and reform the next normal economic order. Currently, there is a lack of research on how crises can alter the industry, how the industry adapts to changes with innovative techniques, and how research that can establish the next norms can be conducted. To study the needs and gaps in research work, the author reviews past and emerging literature to capture its impacts and impart some ideas from different research fields that will allow tourism to grow and evolve.

Biographies

Naveen Donthu is a Distinguished University Professor at Georgia State University. He holds the title of Vanchel Pennebaker Eminent Scholar Chair and is the Kenneth Bernhardt Distinguished Department Chair of the Marketing Department. His research has appeared in journals such as Marketing Science , Management Science , Journal of Marketing , Journal of Marketing Research , and Journal of Consumer Research. He is the current editor-in-chief for the Journal of Business Research .

Anders Gustafsson is a Professor of Marketing at the Norwegian Business School. Dr Gustafsson is also a Distinguished Professorial Fellow at the University of Manchester’s Alliance Manchester Business School, and he is part of Center for Services Leadership Global Faculty at the W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. Dr. Gustafsson has published articles in journals such as the Journal of Marketing , Journal of Marketing Research , Journal of Consumer Research , Journal of Service Research , and Journal of Product Innovation Management . He is the current editor-in-chief for the Journal of Business Research and an area editor for the Journal of Service Research . Recently, he received the Christopher Lovelock Career Contributions to the Services Discipline Award. He is the current president of AMA’s Academic Council (2019/2020).

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European Journal of Innovation Management

ISSN : 1460-1060

Article publication date: 27 September 2022

Issue publication date: 26 March 2024

This paper aims to measure the intention to use digital marketing strategies to enhance the performance of tourism business as well as the extent of digital renovation applications in tourism for sustainable business in a new normal era.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper is an insight from the existing relevant literature on the tourism business from time immemorial. The conceptual framework of this study is designed based on previous studies of digital marketing practices for tourism businesses. Furthermore, data were collected from 270 respondents, of which the valid response rate is 72.97%. Partial least square (PLS)-structural equation modeling (SEM) is used to validate the conceptual framework and hypotheses testing.

Among the nine hypotheses path, seven were supported. This study result shows that perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, social media marketing and tourism business performance are critical factors for adopting digital marketing in tourism. Thus, tourism service providers' intention has a positive impact to meet the expectation of tourists and adoption of digital marketing.

Research limitations/implications

The study's results will assist tourism researchers and service providers in understanding an authentic relationship between digital practices of tourism business and tourist satisfaction. In addition, the legacy of tourism business through digital marketing empowers the owner and community.

Originality/value

The study is the first to explore the relationship between tourism business performance and digital marketing during the new normal era for the empowerment of local community and expanded business in tourism sector.

Digital marketing strategies
Digital renovation
Social media adoption
Mobile technologies
Tourism business performance
Structural equation modeling (SEM)

Deb, S.K. , Nafi, S.M. and Valeri, M. (2024), "Promoting tourism business through digital marketing in the new normal era: a sustainable approach", European Journal of Innovation Management , Vol. 27 No. 3, pp. 775-799. https://doi.org/10.1108/EJIM-04-2022-0218

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The “New Normal” of Increased Online Business

The “new normal” of increased online business transactions, and revisiting revenue memorandum circular no. 55-2013.

by: Renz Homer S. Arreola

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a significant toll on economies and people of all nations and of all ages, from all walks of life, across the globe.

the new normal of increased online business transactions

Social media and virtual meetings, domestically and across the globe, have become the “new normal” as people strive to keep normalcy in their lives amid pandemic restrictions. Here in the Philippines, Digital 2020 April Statshot report by Hootsuite and We Are Social revealed that 64% of Filipino internet users are spending more time on social media, with 23% indicating an increased activity in their online shopping activity.

With consumers resorting more to online shopping amid pandemic restrictions, entrepreneurs have embraced the digital phenomenon for online shopping even more. E-commerce websites such as Lazada and Shopee are at the forefront of these online shopping platforms with expected surges in sales revenues in millions of pesos. Technology has already transformed online business transactions into an infinite marketplace where conducting business has become more convenient and efficient for both vendors and vendees. The COVID-19 pandemic has made this marketplace a more obvious necessity.

With this surge in online sales and business activity, the government looks to remind online sellers of their tax obligations, with the Bureau of Internal Revenue’s (BIR) issuance of Revenue Memorandum Circular (RMC) No. 60-2020 entitled “Obligations of Persons Conducting Business Transactions Through any Forms of Electronic Media and Notice to Unregistered Businesses.” The Circular basically mandates all business owners who are engaged in an online business platform in any form, whether digital or electronic, to register their businesses with the BIR and pay taxes on their sales.

Under this RMC, online business entities and constituents are encouraged to register their businesses no later than July 31, 2020 to avoid penalties for late registration. In addition, they are encouraged to voluntarily declare their past transactions, and pay the taxes due thereon, without corresponding penalties if the declaration is done no later than July 31, 2020.

The above Circular is explicit that it covers not only partner sellers, but also other stakeholders, such as the payment gateways, delivery channels, internet service providers, and other facilitators. Do note that if online sellers are already registered with the BIR, but were not previously doing business online, these online sellers should revise their certificates of registration (with the BIR), to include “online selling”.

The Department of Finance (DOF) and the BIR were quick to explain that this RMC is a reminder to register, and pay the appropriate taxes due, referring to RMC No. 55-2013, dated 05 August 2013. Given this reference, it would be best to review RMC No. 55-2013.

Revisiting RMC No. 55-2013 reveals that online sellers and other facilitators of online trading have different functions and responsibilities. Individuals who have obligations relative to online business transactions are not limited to those who are e-commerce business owners that possess websites and sell their goods and services online, but it includes those “online intermediaries” who are third parties that offer intermediation services between the online sellers and buyers. The intermediaries receive commissions as they act as channels for goods or services offered by a supplier to a consumer. The relationship between the intermediaries and the online sellers is akin to that of principal-agent relationship. All considered, their obligations and duties to different types of online transactions are entirely different. And what are online transactions? RMC No. 55-2013 refers to the following as the more common online transactions: (A) online shopping or retailing, involving consumers directly buying goods or services from a seller over the internet without an intermediary service; (B) online intermediary service, involving an intermediary/third party offering intermediation services between two trading parties (as discussed above); (C) online advertisement/classified ads, involving a form of promotion that uses the internet to deliver marketing messages to attract customers, and (D) online auctions, which are auctions conducted through the internet via an online service provider that specifically hosts such auctions.

RMC No. 55-2013 likewise provides for more detailed instructions on the obligations of the parties to online transactions with regard the issuances of ORs, depending on the manner of payment to the online seller, whether it be through cash on delivery, through bank deposits, or through credit cards. These instructions likewise consider the details of the abovementioned online transactions.

Finally, RMC No. 55-2013 details the BIR administrative obligations of parties to online transactions as: (1) registration with the BIR; (2) securing the required Authority to Print (ATP) invoices/receipts and register books of accounts for use in business; (3) issue the required invoices or ORs, manually or electronically; (4) withhold the applicable taxes and remit the same to the BIR; (5) file applicable tax returns on or before the due dates, pay correct internal revenue taxes, and submit information returns and other tax compliance reports; and (6) keep books of accounts and other business/accounting records within the time prescribed by law. These obligations are generally restated in RMC No. 60-2020.

Given the lack of details in RMC No. 60-2020, and the public outcry the RMC has generated, maybe the BIR can consider the following to clarify this reminder: (a) issue an extension of the deadline for registration; (b) provide specific details on income tax and value-added tax exemptions, and the qualifications for exemptions, whether it be in the Tax Code or in special laws, like the Barangay Micro Business Enterprises (BMBEs) Act of 2002; (c) reiterate the specific obligations with regard the issuance of invoices/ORs, so that all parties to online transactions will be informed, and (d) the specific requirements for filing of the various returns. Surely, the just enforcement of tax laws merits the detailed clarification of the laws, rules and regulations imposed on taxpayers.

Renz Homer S. Arreola is a Supervisor from the Tax Group of KPMG R.G. Manabat & Co. (KPMG RGM&Co.), the Philippine member firm of KPMG International. KPMG RGM&Co. has been recognized as a Tier 1 tax practice and Tier 1 transfer pricing practice by the International Tax Review.

This article is for general information purposes only and should not be considered as professional advice to a specific issue or entity.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of KPMG International or KPMG RGM&Co. For comments or inquiries, please email [email protected] or [email protected] .

© 2024 R.G. Manabat & Co., a Philippine partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.

For more detail about the structure of the KPMG global organization please visit https://kpmg.com/governance .

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Open Access

Peer-reviewed

Research Article

The new normal: Covid-19 risk perceptions and support for continuing restrictions past vaccinations

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Funding acquisition, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Software, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliation Department of Management, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand

Published: April 8, 2022
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602
Peer Review
Reader Comments

I test the possibility that over-estimating negative consequences of COVID-19 (e.g., hospitalizations, deaths, and threats to children) will be associated with stronger support the ‘ new normal ’ (i.e., continuation of restrictions for an undefined period starting with wide-spread access to vaccines and completed vaccinations of vulnerable people). The new normal was assessed by endorsing practices such as vaccine passports, travel restrictions, mandatory masking, continuing contact tracing, and pursuing elimination. Results are based on five samples ( N = 1,233 from April 2021 and N = 264 from January 2022) and suggest that people over -estimate COVID-19 risks to children and healthy people, as evidenced by median estimates that 5% of all global deaths were children, 29% were generally healthy people under 65, and that a healthy person under the age of 65 has 5% chance of dying from COVID-19. Over-estimates observed in this study align with those based on representative samples, and they were consistently related to stronger support for the new normal. This relationship emerged when participants estimated risks with percentages (core indicators) and indicated the extent to which risk-based statements are true/supported with evidence or false/unsupported (alternative indicators). People were notably more likely to support continuing restrictions if they believed that COVID-19 risk and risk mitigation tactics are true, even when they are not (e.g., children need to be prioritized for boosters). These relationships persisted when considering competing explanations (political ideology, statistics literacy, belief in conspiracy theories). I trace these effects to well-meaning efforts to prevent under-estimation. Public policy and people’s perceptions of risks are intertwined, where even inaccurate judgments may influence decisions. Failure to combat all misinformation with equal rigor may jeopardize the restoration of the social and economic life essential for building adaptive post-pandemic societies.

Citation: Graso M (2022) The new normal: Covid-19 risk perceptions and support for continuing restrictions past vaccinations. PLoS ONE 17(4): e0266602. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602

Editor: Santosh Vijaykumar, Northumbria University, UNITED KINGDOM

Received: May 25, 2021; Accepted: March 23, 2022; Published: April 8, 2022

Copyright: © 2022 Maja Graso. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: All anonymized data and syntax with basic instructions are available here: https://osf.io/87dzs/?view_only=ef9c8daf19c74e078c1c2d2abd3a06e0 .

Funding: Yes. This study is funded by the University of Otago's internal grant system (University of Otago Research Grant). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Competing interests: The author has declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction

The nearly universal desire to ‘flatten the curve’, prevent hospitals from becoming overwhelmed, and save lives mobilized millions to embrace numerous health-minded practices and protect themselves and their fellow citizens from COVID-19. The end of the pandemic now looks closer than ever, thanks to vaccines that are continuing to be effective at preventing severe illnesses and deaths from COVID-19 [ 1 , 2 ]. With the worst of the risks waning, signs of a return to pre-pandemic times are rising. Some places are dropping most of their COVID-19 restrictions entirely (e.g., Florida, Texas, and the UK), and others are adjusting in tandem with local conditions.

Risk, however, is not constant, nor can it be reduced to a binary variable where the outcome is either certain death or insulation from all harm [ 3 – 5 ]. COVID-19 comes with gradients of risk due to new variants, continuously rising cases across the globe, varying levels of vaccinations across states and countries, and the uncertainty of long-term effects of infections [ 6 ]. Despite their high effectiveness, COVID-19 vaccines–like any preventative measure–do not eliminate the risk [ 1 ]. Some COVID-19 risks will likely remain until the virus is no longer seen as a threat because people are protected from severe illnesses [ 7 ] or is eliminated through other strict responses [ 8 ].

Despite vaccines not being a ‘magic bullet’ to end the pandemic [ 8 ], wide-spread vaccination uptakes, particularly of all vulnerable people who are more susceptible to needing hospital care, offer a timely opportunity to re-evaluate the cost/benefit analysis of the severe restrictions, and to consider the public’s role in this process. Continuing or re-implementing restrictions despite high vaccinations (e.g., masking young children, self-isolation of positive cases, and restricting travel), may be beneficial in many ways [ 9 ]. However, these restrictions do not come without their problems [ 8 , 10 – 12 ], which may jeopardize the shift into the post-acute stage of managing the pandemic; the restoration of social and economic life (World Health Organization; WHO, 2022). This study does not seek to conduct the much-needed cost/benefit analysis of restrictions nor debate public policy. Instead, it aims to identify one factor that might challenge the impartiality of such analyses: people’s risk perceptions of COVID-19.

Whether to continue or re-implement restrictions is not a decision that can be made exclusively by health scientists because societal well-being cannot be reduced to a single indicator of success (i.e., reduction in deaths of COVID-19 or hospitalizations); instead, it involves consideration of competing priorities and limited resources (mental health, economics, and education, among others) [ 12 , 13 ]. Therefore, this decision becomes a matter of values, where the interlinking systems of politicians, organizational decision-makers, and their constituencies direct which risks and collateral costs they are willing to accept once vaccines are shown to be effective at preventing the worst outcomes.

This study builds on recent findings suggesting that people are often misinformed when it comes to COVID-19. Their lack of knowledge, however, does not mean they do not influence others. For instance, under-estimation of the threat of COVID-19 or belief in conspiracy theories (e.g., unfounded cures) may lead people to disregard health-minded rules and risk the lives of the vulnerable [ 14 – 16 ]. However, being misinformed may also mean that people over -estimate the threat and believe COVID-19 to have far more significant negative consequences than it does [ 17 ]. Because people’s tendency to over-estimate COVID-19 risks has received less attention relative to erroneous information pertaining to under-estimation, its consequences remain less understood. Nonetheless, if laypeople, who ultimately influence public policy through voting or collective action, miscalibrate the severity of risks and its mitigation tactics, their erroneous judgments may lead to depletion of scarce resources on the deleterious pursuit of poorly identified goals [ 4 , 5 , 18 , 19 ].

Accordingly, I hypothesize that people who over-estimate COVID-19 risks will be more likely to support policies for the colloquial ‘ new normal .’ For this study, the new normal is defined as a continuation of COVID-19 risk-mitigation restrictions for an undefined period of time starting with completed vaccinations of vulnerable people (i.e., meeting the primary global goal for the acute phase of the pandemic according to WHO). I proceed to explain how my predictions are informed by complementary theories on perceptions of unknown (vs. known) risks [ 19 ], availability and reputational cascades [ 4 , 5 , 18 , 19 ], and moralization of COVID-19 [ 20 , 21 ].

Origins and catalysts of risk over-estimation: Theoretical foundation

In the absence of reliable metrics to gauge harm from COVID-19, a balanced risk assessment was not possible in early 2020. When a threat cannot be assessed accurately, policy-makers may embrace the maximin principle and choose the policy that minimizes the likelihood of a catastrophic worst-case scenario [ 3 ]. This explains why the flu, despite contributing to thousands of deaths annually [ 22 ], does not trigger restrictions; its worst-case scenarios–even with seasonal fluctuations in severity–are generally known, and its costs are tolerated. In efforts to prevent the modeled worst-case scenarios from letting COVID-19 spread, governments and health institutions sought to educate their citizens on the dangers of COVID-19, encourage health-minded behavior (e.g., physical distancing, hygiene, and masks), and combat the spread of misinformation that threatened the success of health efforts [ 15 , 16 , 23 – 27 ]. These measures have since escalated to unprecedented global travel restrictions, sealed borders, and vaccine or even booster passports to enter anywhere from schools to gyms.

While erring on the side of extreme caution is defensible in the absence of information, continuing to do so in light of new information is not. This fear-based focus can further perpetuate availability cascades where new information is not used to revisit the cost-benefit analysis but is selectively disseminated and censored; information that deviates from the narrative may elicit reputational damages or moral outrage [ 20 , 21 , 28 ]. These forces may also be explained with moralization , a process by which an attitude becomes a matter of moral imperative [ 20 ]. When an attitude becomes moralized, it becomes absolute, intolerant, and resistant to change, further perpetuating the availability cascade of moralized information.

Consider, for instance, contrarian opinions within the scientific community. Unlike many policy risks where public opinions tend to clash with those of the experts, COVID-19 yields diverging views and disagreements between experts [ 29 ]. Their debates are not driven by questions such as whether COVID-19 is real or how severe it is to different demographic groups, but whether the extreme and unprecedented measures applied uniformly for vulnerable and non-vulnerable alike and for extended periods are worth the cost [ 9 , 30 – 33 ]. Yet, moralizing COVID-19 means that questioning the magnitude of risks can inflict reputational harms [ 4 ]. For example, after Dr. Ludvigsson, a pediatrician and epidemiologist, pointed out that the risks of COVID-19 to children are extremely low [ 34 ], his claims were challenged not only on empirical grounds, but he also received intimidation and personal attacks that ultimately led to him to abandon researching and debating COVID-19 [ 35 ].

Laypeople may similarly dismiss researchers and findings that go against the moralization of COVID-19. For instance, researchers [ 21 ] gave participants in New Zealand [NZ] two identical research proposals to investigate human suffering related to COVID-19. Proposals differed in one way: one wanted to examine human costs that result from abandoning elimination in NZ, and the other wanted to examine costs from continuing it. Despite containing identical information about the methodology, the proposal that challenged elimination was seen as less methodologically sound, less reliant on accurate information, and participants showed less trust in the researchers.

This phenomenon emerges in part due to the availability heuristic [ 19 ], a mental shortcut where the perceived likelihood of any event is dependent on how easily this event can be brought to mind. For example, information about the numbers of deaths and cases, the dangers of long COVID-19, or overwhelmed healthcare systems is readily available. In contrast, information about the age or comorbidities of people who died [ 36 ], long-term and severe consequences of flu [ 37 , 38 ], or pre-COVID-19 reports of hospitals being described as ‘war zones’ and needing ice truck morgues to deal with the surge in flu cases [ 37 , 39 – 42 ] may not be cognitively available. In fact, media reports tend to focus on negative information such as deaths, hospitalizations, and cases, while giving less coverage to positive developments, such as vaccine trials in 2020 or school re-openings [ 43 , 44 ]. Brookings Institute reported that Americans vastly overestimate the severity of COVID-19 by many degrees of magnitude. For example, 35% of US adults believe that half or more infected people require hospitalization for COVID-19. However, that number is likely no greater than 5% [ 17 ].

This literature suggests that left unchecked, fear-based availability cascades can perpetuate the over-estimation of risks, censorship, and eventually, rigid support and implementation of practices that disproportionately deal with one threat while undervaluing others.

Present study

In this study, I tested the possibility that people will likely over-estimate COVID-19 risk and that their over-estimations would be associated with stronger support for continuing restrictions even after the most vulnerable populations have been vaccinated and after the threat of overwhelmed hospitals has abated. My expectations that people would over-estimate COVID-19 risks are based on scholarly evidence that media focuses [in part due to people’s demand] on negative aspects of COVID-19 [ 43 , 44 ] and on representative sample polling showing that people over-estimate COVID-19 risks [ 17 ]. My expectation that these over-estimates would be related to endorsement of the new normal is based on the literature of risk-estimation, availability heuristics, and moralization summarized above. I test a single relationship in this study: risk (anticipated over-)estimation and support for the new normal . I sought to increase confidence in my findings by drawing from different samples and measuring laypeople’s support for the new normal and risk perceptions through multiple complementary indicators. In addition, I examine other variables that may inform future research on this topic [political ideology, belief in conspiracy theories that devalue COVID-19, general concern over COVID-19, and general compliance with restrictions].

Materials and methods

All anonymized data and syntax with basic instructions are available here:

https://osf.io/87dzs/?view_only=ef9c8daf19c74e078c1c2d2abd3a06e0 .

I present the results of the central hypothesis [risk over-estimation and new normal support] tested with core percentage-based and select alternative indicators. I rely on the Supporting Information (SI) section to present additional or exploratory findings ( S1 File ) that are not necessarily of central relevance to this manuscript but are nonetheless beneficial for a more holistic understanding of the data at this point (e.g., ANOVAs showing differences between samples, distributions of risk estimation variables, and sample-level results). References to SI information are noted where appropriate.

Participants

I used diverse samples, including Mturk (Samples A and E), Prolific (Samples B and C), and community members in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ; Sample D) who were recruited to participate in the study via social media. Three hundred platform users from Mturk and Prolific were recruited for each Sample A, B, C, and E. Australian/New Zealand community members were recruited through social networks and social media ads. Those community members were incentivized to participate such that for every complete response, $1 would be donated to one of the two charities of their choice. There was no deception, and participants’ requests were honored. The community study stopped once its costs reached the available budget. Data from samples A and B were collected first (early April 2021). Data from Samples C and D were collected in mid-late April. Sample E respondents were invited to participate in early January 2022. All responses were anonymous.

The study was reviewed and approved by the University of Otago Human Ethics Committee Reference#D20-088. All participants received the information sheet outlining their rights as participants. They provided their informed consent before they began their study by selecting ‘I agree to participate in this study’. If they did not wish to participate, they could choose ‘I do not agree to participate’ and exit the study.

I sought to increase quality by preventing participants from taking the survey more than once and introducing two attention checks embedded within perceived scientific consensus and knowledge items (sample item is “For quality control, please select ‘3’). The results and conclusions remained substantively unchanged regardless of whether the data were analyzed with all responses ( Table 1 N Recruited) or without responses who failed the check questions ( Table 1 N Retained; reported in this manuscript). Missing data were handled with pairwise deletion. Table 1 presents all sample characteristics.

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t001

Procedures: Maximizing risk indicators and minimizing participant fatigue

Maximizing confidence in my findings required multiple complementary indicators because of the imperfections inherent in any single operationalization of COVID-19 risk perceptions among laypeople. Therefore, the study relied on: 1) core risk indicators or numeric estimation items that align with public surveys on COVID-19 (17) and reference information that laypeople can understand when estimating other, non-Covid risks in life (e.g., chances of surviving a cancer diagnosis), and 2) alternative indicators (a series of evaluative questions about COVID-19 risks). I employed a similar approach to extend the generalizability of new normal endorsement by measuring it as a 9-item policy scale [ new normal policy endorsement; NNP; given to half of A-B samples, and everyone in C, D, and E), or a 3-item affect-based scale (RN-Fear; Half of A-B samples). Sub-sets of alternative indicators and items were assigned to participants at random with the goals of minimizing participant fatigue and maximizing the number of ways participants can evaluate COVID-19 risks. Varying N s reflect these differences. Table 2 summarizes all available study materials and content by each sample. Due to the richness of the data, the manuscript focuses on the results involving DVs, core indicators, and evaluative items (perceived scientific consensus and knowledge of risks). For other information, I direct readers to S1 File or the open data.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t002

New Normal Policy (NNP) endorsement.

Recall from the introduction that new normal was defined as restrictions past vaccinations. Accordingly, the primary measure of interest was examining the extent to which people support new normal policies in perpetuity. This set of items was assigned at random to half of the participants in Samples A and B, and everybody in Samples C, D, and E (see Table 2 ). I selected nine items that represent the most contentious and most frequently discussed issues pertaining to COVID-19 (e.g., vaccine passports, continuing contact tracing, or lifting all mandates). Participants read the following prompt question:

“Many countries have vaccination programs that are well under way. What policies should be implemented or continued once all the vulnerable people have been vaccinated and once everybody had a chance to get their vaccine? Indicate the extent to which you would support the following policies; 1 ( I would NOT support this ) to 7 (I would DEFINITELY support this )”

Table 3 shows the items, means, and Cronbach’s α coefficients for each sample. When examining all responses simultaneously (without sample-based divide), the scale had high internal consistency (Cronbach’ α = .90) and single-factor structure; I assessed the dimensionality of the nine items with the principal axis factoring using oblique rotation, which yielded a single factor accounting for 51.4% of the item variance. Therefore, I collapsed the items to form a single score of NNP endorsement.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t003

Fear of abandoning COVID-19 restrictions (Samples A and B only).

As an affect-based complement to NNP (a policy-based assessment noted above), participants indicated how they would feel if “the world returned to ‘normal’ once all the vulnerable groups have been vaccinated” by selecting the extent of their agreement (1 = strongly disagree ; 7 = strongly agree ) with sentiments: 1) vulnerable , 2) unsafe , or 3) worried . Due to their high internal consistency (Cronbach’s α coefficients were .96 and .92 for Samples A and B, respectively), items were collapsed to form a single scale labeled RN-fear of returning to normal (RN-Fear) . Because it was of secondary interest, this DV was assigned at random to half of the participants in Samples A and B only.

Core COVID-19 estimations (numerical; all participants).

Participants estimated seven COVID-19 outcomes for people living in Western countries to attenuate the possibility that their responses would be driven by global differences in health capabilities. Table 4 shows indicators, conservative estimation benchmarks, and references for those benchmarks. The purpose of estimation benchmarks is to determine whether participants’ responses significantly differ from those indicators. All participants received these questions with one exception noted below: Sample E (2022) participants evaluated Items 5, 6, and 7 with healthy, fit, unvaccinated individuals as the reference. All percentage-based answers were presented on a sliding scale with three anchor labels (0 = extremely low; less than 1% ; 50 = about 50% or half; 100 = extremely high; almost everybody ).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t004

Alternative risk indicator #2: Perceptions of Scientific Evidence (PSE) on risks and risk-mitigation claims.

Participants in Samples A–D evaluated ten COVID-19 risk-mitigation practices, and participants in Sample E (2022) evaluated 12 different items to broaden the scope of the assessment and reflect the changes in available knowledge.

All participants indicated the extent to which they believe that those practices are supported by scientific evidence ( S1 File contains additional PSE items from Samples A and B). Items were selected based on the extent of their media coverage. Participants were asked to:

“Consider the amount of scientific evidence available to support each of the statements below. Select lower numbers if you think there is no or little evidence that supports that claim. Select higher numbers if you think there is clear evidence that supports that claim.” 0 = No evidence to 6 = Clear evidence . Middle numbers were labeled as ‘Mixed evidence’ . Numbers were recoded to a 1–7 scale.

The objective of this segment was not to quantify the actual scientific consensus; evidence of such consensus and occasional lack of it is evident in other sources [ 7 , 9 , 32 ]. Instead, the focus was on laypeople’s perceptions of scientific consensus (PSE) and their relationship with NNP endorsement. Accordingly, I looked at practices for which there is less debate and high consensus (e.g., the efficacy of vaccines), some debate and mixed consensus (e.g., mask-wearing), and practices that are not or cannot be supported with clear consensus, such as the belief that benefits of lockdowns outweigh the risks of COVID-19, elimination (Zero-Covid) being the best global strategy to combat COVID-19, the need for wearing masks while driving or hiking alone, and closing parks and beaches. I reasoned that the evidence of risk over-estimation-NNP relationship would be stronger if participants who endorse NNPs report that claims that over-inflate risks are supported with evidence (even when they are not).

Ensuring accuracy in presentation, interpretation, and analysis pertaining to PSE items is challenging because the knowledge is evolving. I sought to reduce (and admittedly not eliminate) those challenges by employing several tactics. First, for supported claims, I relied on statements from science communication channels, and I provided appropriate references. Second, I labeled items as supported , unsupported or unclear based on currently available knowledge. Third, to aid in interpretation, I collapsed items into scales when they yielded themselves to such practice. Finally, I improved Samples A-D PSE administration and repeated the process in Sample E (2022) using more pointed questions.

Table 5 summarizes items administered to Samples A–D.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t005

From a theoretical perspective, there are differences in items that are supported with evidence and those that are not. For instance, scoring high on item 1 is warranted (and scoring low is not), as there is strong evidence that vaccinations reduce serious illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths from COVID-19. However, scoring high on item 4 may indicate risk over-estimation, as CDC does not suggest that people need to wear masks when enjoying outdoor activities with members of their household [ 90 ].

While there is no theoretical foundation to justify collapsing all items into a single scale, a factor analysis suggested unexpectedly that these items can be collapsed and interpreted meaningfully. Specifically, an exploratory maximum likelihood analysis [ 91 – 93 ] yielded a single factor accounting for 51.77% of the item variance after removing the last item ( sanitizing groceries ). Only after observing these results (i.e., I did not initially anticipate conducting these analyses), I considered evaluating the data using a 5-item scale aggregating items that have less empirical support (PSE–supported; α = .78), and a 5-item scale aggregating items that have more empirical support (PSE–unsupported; α = .86). While both yielded a single-factor structure, they were highly correlated with each other; r = .70, p < .001, N = 627. Therefore, I settled on using a 10-item aggregate when reporting correlations and regression results for Samples A–D.

Mindful of the challenges in the assessment of laypeople’s perceptions of scientific evidence about COVID-19 risks, I devised a new assessment of PSE for 2022-based Sample E; one that more defensibly differentiates between: 1) six claims about risks that are unsupported by evidence , indicating that they are either false or unknowable, and 2) six claims about risks that are supported by the current evidence. Unsupported claims formed a reliable scale (Cronbach’s α = .80) and yielded a single-factor structure accounting for 50.11% of the variance. Therefore, I collapsed these six items into a single scale to aid analyses and interpretation.

Assessing the factor structure of the generally supported claims, however, did not suggest that items can be collapsed into a meaningful scale even with potential recoding to infer the same direction of high/low risk, so I proceeded to treat these items as exploratory indicators and present their zero-order correlation with NNP support below.

Alternative risk indicator 3: Knowledge-based questions about COVID-19 risks and risk mitigation (Samples A–D).

Instead of asking participants whether each risk and risk-mitigation claim had scientific support (PSE indicator noted above), participants evaluated the extent to which each item is definitely true/accurate or definitely false/misinformation (exact anchors are noted below). Recall that the purpose of alternative indicators and random administration to different samples was to increase the confidence in findings through observing the consistent relationship between risk-estimators and NNP support using different measures and anchors. Like with PSE items, I reasoned that the evidence of risk over-estimation and NNP relationship would be stronger if participants who endorse NNPs report that claims that over-inflate risks are true (even when they are not).

The participants were instructed to do the following:

“COVID-19 research continues to advance rapidly. As you are answering the following questions, consider information that is known right now and that is available through legitimate sources (e.g., the WHO, CDC, or The Ministry of Health). Some of the following statements may be true, and some may be false; others may not have a definitive answer at this time. Please indicate the extent to which each statement is TRUE or FALSE.”

A sub-set of knowledge-based items focused on ‘long Covid’, given its potential for long-term damage [ 56 , 62 , 66 ]. If people over-estimate the risks of long Covid, as evident by believing or disbelieving certain claims, their over-estimation should be associated with greater support of NPPs. Instructions read:

“The following questions are about ’long Covid’—a term that describes the effects of COVID-19 that continue for weeks or months beyond the initial illness. Consider whether each of the following statements about long Covid is TRUE or FALSE.”

Answer modes differed between two waves (Samples A and B), and Samples C and D. Samples A and B contained a mid-point, while those answers in Samples C and D did not. The objective was to ensure that the presence or absence of a mid-point did not influence the general patterns of the relationships [ 94 ].

Answer mode in Samples A and B. 1 (visually presented as -3 = NOT true; Misinformation ) to +3 ( True; Accurate information ), with a mid-point of 0 = partially true . Results were recoded to a 1–7 scale.
Answer mode in Samples C and D. 1 ( Definitely FALSE ) to 6 ( Definitely TRUE ), without a mid-point. Results were recoded to a 1–6 scale.

Tables 6 and 7 (Results) show items per Samples A/B and C/D. Sample E did not receive these items due to analytical challenges observed in Samples A–D (further noted in Discussion). Because the factor structure of 18 items did not suggest they can be meaningfully aggregated or reduced to any sub-factors, I examined their relationships on an itemized basis (Discussion highlights the challenges of doing so).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t006

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t007

COVID-19 current behavior (contact-tracing, compliance, and vaccine intent/status).

In Samples A–D, participants responded to three questions indicating their current COVID-19 mitigating behavior: 1) How often do you record your visits for contact tracing (e.g., manually or using a tracer app)? (1 = almost never ; 7 = almost every time ); 2) Overall, I have been complying with COVID-19 mandates (e.g., masks); (1 = strongly disagree ; 7 = strongly agree ); 3) Will you get the COVID-19 vaccine once you are eligible? (1 = Definitely not ; 5 = definitely yes/received it already ). Contact tracing could be influenced by one’s geographical location, and it might not be a telling indicator of compliance outside of Sample C.

Participants in Sample E also reported their vaccination status because the vaccine is now more widely available (vs. A-D samples in mid-2021): 1 = yes ( N = 205), 0 = no ( N = 52), not coded = I do not wish to answer ( N = 6), and indicated whether they had COVID-19: 1 = yes ( N = 58), 0 = no ( N = 198), not coded = I do not wish to answer ( N = 4). They reported their general compliance with the single item: “Overall, I have been complying with COVID-19 mandates (e.g., masks)”; (1 = strongly disagree ; 7 = strongly agree ).

Individual characteristics and potential controls (all participants).

The study considered several other variables that could further illuminate the nature of the results (concern over contracting COVID-19) or provide an alternative explanation of the underlying relationship: 1) political ideology, 2) basic statistics literacy, and 3) COVID-19 denialism and conspiracy beliefs. I selected those latter three variables as potential controls because liberals tend to be more concerned with COVID-19 [ 21 ], and they tend to be more likely to over-estimate its risks [ 17 ], people who have greater statistics literacy tend to make more accurate COVID-19 risk assessments [ 108 ], and people who believe conspiracy theories tend to have warped perceptions of COVID-19 risks [ 23 , 26 , 109 ].

Concern over contracting COVID-19 (Samples C , D , E] . I anticipated that greater COVID-19 risk-estimation would be related to greater concern over contracting COVID-19 (I did not hypothesize the directionality of this relationship; I explain why at length in the Discussion). Participants were asked: “How concerned or worried would you be if you or somebody close to you got COVID-19?” and provided their answer on a slider scale from 0 ( not at all concerned ) to 100 ( extremely concerned ).

Political ideology / conservatism (all participants) . Participants indicated their political ideology on a scale from 1 = very liberal or left-wing to 7 = very conservative or right-wing . Participants in Sample E also noted who they voted for (1 = Biden ; 0 = Trump , missing = other , do not wish to answer ).

Statistics literacy (Limited administration) . Participants in Samples A–D were asked to solve three basic statistics problems.

Problem 2 : “Consider this fictional statement: 15% of people like surveys. This means that X people like surveys.” Options were: a) 1500 out of 5, b) 0.15 out of 100, c) 15 out of 150, d) 15 out of 100, and e) 15 out of 1,000. (% correct = 97.5).
Problem 3 : “200 people took a test. 20 of those people scored 100% on that test. Which of the following conclusions is TRUE?” Options were: a) 10% of the people got all questions right; b) 100% of the people got 20 questions right; c) 20% of people got all questions right; and d) 10% of the people failed the test. (% correct = 83.1).
Problem 3 : “A school has 1000 students. Only 1 student walked to school in 2020. In 2021, 800% more students started walking to school. How many MORE students are walking to school in 2021 than they did in 2020?” Options were: 8, 18, 80, or 800. (% correct = 53.6).

Participants’ final scores ranged from 0 = missed all three questions to 3 = correctly answered all three questions . Problem 3 emerged to be significantly correlated with COVID-19 risk estimations, so I reported its results separately for exploratory purposes, and I included it in Sample E (2022) data collection.

Covid denialism and conspiracy support.

Samples A–D (limited) . Belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories was assessed with the following items: 1) COVID-19 virus is not real; it does not exist, 2) COVID-19 is caused by 5G networks, 3) COVID-19 virus is made in a lab; and 4) ‘Long Covid’ is not a medically-documented condition. Depending on the version of the survey, participants responded to at least two of those items. This response method was not by design. Instead, I made an error in survey coding, which resulted in participants not seeing all intended items. Items were embedded within perceived scientific consensus and general knowledge alternative indicators. Because of different anchors and the error, responses were standardized so that 1 = dismissal of conspiracy theory statements , and 10 = belief in conspiracy theory statements .

Since the data collection (April 2021) and while the manuscript was under review, the so-called “lab leak hypothesis” (i.e., belief that COVID-19 emerged from a lab) has received more attention, and according to Maxmen and Mallapaty [ 110 ], many research institutes are calling for a deeper investigation of this possibility. Because of the imperfections of this and other items (including an error in administration), this variable in Samples A–D should be interpreted with caution.

Sample E (2022) . To address the shortcomings noted above, Sample E noted the extent to which the following statements are supported with evidence (1 = no evidence ; 7 = clear evidence ): 1) Virus that causes COVID-19 has never been isolated; 2) PCR tests cannot differentiate flu from COVID-19; 3) COVID-19 pandemic has been planned by the global powers. There is no research that would suggest any of these statements are true. Items were collapsed into a single scale (Cronbach’s α = .70), indicating beliefs in conspiracy theories.

PART I: Predicting new normal policy support with core risk indicators

The underlying prediction was that people would over-estimate COVID-19 risks and that this over-estimation would be associated with stronger support of continuing restrictions. However, while determining what makes the label ‘ over-estimation ’ a more appropriate descriptor of this phenomenon as opposed to ‘ higher estimation ’ is a matter of semantics, a statistically defensible answer requires an assessment of participants’ responses against the currently available data. Therefore, the first step was to assess whether participants’ responses are over-estimates (and thus erroneous) or whether they are higher estimates but still within the expected range. Table 8 shows participants’ responses on core indicators. Table 4 in Methods lists the known risks of COVID-19 and provides relevant recent resources used to inform those estimation benchmarks.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t008

Results of one-sample t tests revealed that participants’ estimations were significantly different from the estimation benchmarks ( p < .0001) and emerged in every sample independently and for every risk indicator (detailed results are provided in S4 Table ).

S1 Fig provides additional data based on 2021 samples (including a visual representation of frequency distributions) which can aid readers in evaluating this work (also see S2 Table ). The distribution of the responses suggests that according to the currently available COVID-19 risk statistics, the percentage of people who under-estimate COVID-19 across all four samples is small. For instance, 34 people (2.8%) estimated the average age of COVID-19 death to be above 82, 154 people (12.49%) estimated that more than 90% of the people recover, and only 63 (5%) estimated that more than 95% of the people recover without any medical intervention. Those recovery estimates are still within the possible range.

Table 9 presents zero-order correlations between the core risk indicators, NNP endorsement, and core demographic variables for Samples A–D due to their shared historical context. Table 10 presents those statistics for Sample E, because it is the only data collected in 2022. Correlations table results suggest that higher estimations of negative outcomes of COVID-19 (e.g., deaths among children), and lower estimations of positive outcomes (e.g., recovery) are consistently associated with increased desire to continue restrictions, as operationalized as both NNP support (all samples) and fear of returning to normal after vaccinations (RN-Fear administered in Samples A and B only). Estimations of negative COVID-19 outcomes are related to COVID-19 compliance behavior, with some exception in regards to contact tracing, which may indicate differences in local laws. Finally, these basic correlations results also show that those who are more likely to endorse the new normal are people who identify as women, are liberal, are more personally concerned about contracting COVID-19, who currently report compliance with health-minded behavior, and who are less likely to believe in COVID-19 conspiracy theories.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t009

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Regression results.

Next, I conducted regression analyses to examine the relationship between core COVID-19 indicators and NNP support, considering the interrelated nature of multiple indicators. Specifically, I: 1) assessed the effects of core indicators on NNP, 2) examined this relationship while considering the potential controls, and 3) assessed the predictive power of perceived scientific consensus on NNP over and above all other variables. Because of the high correlation between three core indicators (estimate the chances of a healthy person dying, ending up in ICU, or never recovering; r > .70, p < .001), I averaged them into a single estimate to reduce multicollinearity.

First, I assessed the predictive power of the core indicators on NNP and RN-fear. Table 11 results (based on all participants) suggest that core indicators predict NNP support, and all but one (percentage of COVID-19 deaths that are children) were significantly related to NNP. SI ( S6 – S8 Tables) presents sample-specific regression results; while the core indicators predict NNPs, some individual indicators are not statistically significant, which could be due to lower power.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t011

Next, I examined whether the core indicators continue to predict NNP even after controlling for factors that can offer competing explanations. Accordingly, I entered the potential controls under Step 1 and core indicators under Step 2. Step 1 controls included gender due to its positive relationship with NNP, political ideology, and conspiracy beliefs. Although I planned on controlling for statistics knowledge, I did not do so as this variable was shown to be uncorrelated with NNP. Finally, because my previous analyses unexpectedly revealed that PSE (perceived scientific evidence of COVID-19 risks) is strongly related to NNP, I examined whether it predicts NNP more strongly than other variables by entering it in Step 3. I clarify that I made this decision only after observing the positive results (i.e., its strong relationship with NNP was unexpected and I intended to examine it separately). I present analyses by Samples A–D ( Table 12 ) and Sample E ( Table 13 ) separately because they used different wording and because data were collected in different years. Accordingly, Sample E also considers participants’ COVID-19 recovery and vaccination status as potential controls.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t012

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t013

Results presented in Tables 11 – 14 show that core risk-estimation indicators predict NNP support, and this relationship emerges even after controlling for gender (included due to its positive relationship with NNP shown in Table 10 ), political ideology, conspiracy beliefs, and specific to Sample E, vaccination status and history of COVID-19 recovery. In summary, core risk indicators jointly predict NNP support and RN-Fear, but the latter is only predicted by perceptions that a healthy person will suffer adverse outcomes. To be sure, not all indicators emerged as strong predictors; underestimating recovery without intervention and overestimating risks to healthy people (collapsed variable) emerged as strong predictors of NNP, but the estimation of the percent of global deaths that were children and healthy people did not emerge as consistent predictors of NNP support when assessing the data as separate samples. Indicating that COVID-19 risks and mitigation practices are supported with scientific evidence (even when they are not) predicted NNP even after controlling for other variables (entered in Steps 1 and 2).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t014

PART II: Exploring the relationship between NNP support and risk perception using the knowledge-based alternative indicators

This section shows participants’ responses to a range of claims about COVID-19 risks and risk-mitigation tactics. Recall that these items were varied in a way that Samples A/B and Samples C/D received the same items and anchors. The intention was to categorize items that may be seen as over- or under-estimates. Unlike the perceived scientific evidence items, knowledge-based indicators did not form an interpretable factor structure. Therefore, to get a wider understanding of participants’ risk perceptions, I report the means and basic correlations with NNP support.

Part II results section should be interpreted with caution due to their itemized reporting. Even though these items did not yield an interpretable structure that would allow cleaner analyses, I share these findings so that others may be more successful in assessing laypeople’s perceptions of risk. Despite challenges in interpreting item-based correlations, a few telling patterns emerge, which can be used to refine these questions and promote future research. For instance, NNP support was related to the perception that COVID-19 was the main cause of death in the US (2020; incorrect), labeling as incorrect the claim that UK COVID-19 deaths are reported if they occur within 28 days of a positive test, and labeling as incorrect the claim that people over 80 account for half of all COVID-19 deaths (see Methods for caveats).

General discussion

I examined whether COVID-19 risk perceptions (and specifically over-estimations) are related to endorsement of the new normal ; continuing restrictions such as vaccine passports, masking mandates, self-isolation, and pursuit of COVID-19 elimination after all the vulnerable groups have been vaccinated and once everybody had a chance to get the vaccine. Efforts to prevent the spread of misinformation have primarily targeted arguments that under-estimated or dismissed the threat of COVID-19, or that gave credence to questionable origin stories and untested solutions [ 26 ]. I conducted this study with the hope of not supplanting but complementing this predominant perspective and encouraging others to consider the possibility that uncorrected misinformation that over-estimates risks and presents information partially–particularly now—may be as damaging to social and health recovery as uncorrected misinformation that under-estimates them.

Drawing from findings based on 1,500+ participants, distinct data collections, and multiple assessments of risk, I summarize the key trends emerging from the data, highlight the limitations, challenges, and boundaries of the results, and discuss implications and need for future research on COVID-19 risk-estimation.

Risk over- vs. under-estimation

When interpreting the core indicator findings, it is first essential to evaluate whether the results are driven by higher estimations of COVID-19 risks (i.e., estimations that are high but within the possible bounds) or whether they are driven by over -estimations of risk. In other words, at what threshold does the estimate become over -estimate? While these distinctions are matters of semantics, the results suggested that people over-estimated the negative consequences of COVID-19 (i.e., they provided lower average age of death, greater estimation of deaths and hospitalizations for children and healthy people under the age of 65), and they under-estimated the positive consequences (i.e., the potential for recovery without medical assistance). This trend emerged independently in all five samples (A–D based in 2021, and E based in 2022).

Furthermore, comporting with the recent Brookings report [ 17 ], average estimates were higher than the conservative benchmarks noted in Table 4 . Consider, for instance, the chances that a person who contracts COVID-19 recovers without medical intervention. Identifying the precise number is challenging because it depends on a patient’s age, comorbidities, and reasons for hospital admission (COVID-19 symptoms or an incidental COVID-19 test). Nonetheless, those estimates typically range between 1% - 5% [ 17 ], not 30% (median) as suggested in this study, and there is no evidence that a healthy person under 65 years of age has around 12% chance (median) of ending up in ICU, as people’s perceptions would suggest.

Under -estimation of negative consequences was less frequent but present. To be sure, the focus of this study was to document the over-estimation of COVID-19 risks and therefore contribute to the comparably more extensive literature on under-estimations and conspiracy beliefs [ 23 , 26 , 109 , 131 , 132 ]. However, as risk assessment literature suggests, both over- and under-estimations of risks may have consequences worth examining, and all erroneous estimates should be re-calibrated [ 4 , 5 , 18 , 19 , 133 ]. The most notable under-estimation type was the risk that COVID-19 poses to older citizens. Specifically, participants under-estimated the average age of death. In 2020 elderly care facilities indeed bore the brunt of all COVID-19 deaths, and in some countries, more than 70% of all people who died with COVID-19 were in aged care facilities [ 114 , 115 ]. However, with greater awareness of COVID-19 dangers to the elderly, fewer deaths occurred in those facilities in subsequent waves [ 117 ]. Under-estimations were also evident when examining the alternative indicators. Consider, for instance, this erroneous claim: “if a vaccinated person tests positive for COVID-19, it means that the vaccine is not working”. Evaluating this claim as true was related to lower NNP, but also lower self-report compliance with health-minded mandates. Importantly, beliefs in conspiracy theories (e.g., COVID-19 does not exist, PCR tests cannot tell between flu or COVID-19, COVID-19 has never been isolated) were also related to less NNP endorsement and less self-report compliance and non-vaccination status (Sample E).

Risk estimation and NNP

Over-estimates of COVID-19 risks were generally related to stronger support of NNPs. Importantly, the relationship persisted even after considering the impact of C19 conspiracy theories, political ideology, and gender. However, it is crucial to note that while the core indicators predicted NNPs (evidenced in regression results where NNP was regressed on those indicators), not all of the seven indicators emerged as consistent predictors across samples (see S5 – S8 Tables for details). Indicators that emerged as significant predictors include under-estimating recovery without medical intervention and over-estimating the risks of adverse outcomes for a healthy person under 65 (ICU, death, never recovering from COVID-19). Furthermore, while these core estimates predicted NNP (9-item policy variable), they did not consistently predict the exploratory RN-fear (3-item assessment of fear of returning to ‘normal’), suggesting that this variable might have different, unexamined antecedents.

Perceived scientific consensus

Perceived scientific consensus pertaining to COVID-19 risks and its relationship with NNP support warrants special attention due to its unexpectedly strong and robust impact in Samples A-D, which I then further examined in Sample E (2022). People were more likely to support the NNPs not only if they believed there is scientific evidence on issues that are actually supported with scientific evidence (e.g., the efficacy of vaccines to prevent severe illnesses or deaths), but also on issues where the scientific consensus is not available, such as wearing masks while driving alone. Participants’ responses were so consistent that all items–supported and unsupported–yielded a single, interpretable assessment. Despite this being a supplementary indicator (and thus was given to half of 1,200+ participants in 2021-based samples), it unexpectedly emerged as the single strongest predictor of NNPs over and above control variables and core indicators.

Sample E replicated these patterns with updated PSE items and showed that people who support NNPs believe that there is evidence behind statements such as N95 masks are safe for children’s use during a typical school day, if the US had high (95%) vaccination rates, COVID-19 would have stopped spreading, and needing to prioritize children under the age of 12 for booster shots, even if there is no evidence behind those claims or WHO recommends otherwise ( Table 15 ). These results suggest that it is possible that the PSE items are more related to beliefs in scientific evidence , which is a research question that my colleagues and I pursued in a different project [ 134 ].

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.t015

Alternative indicators (knowledge)

Because of the imperfections inherent in relying on quantitative- and percentage-based estimation as exclusive sources of COVID-19 risk perceptions, I sought to obtain a more nuanced understanding of these perceptions by introducing a series of indicators that assessed participants’ knowledge of risks and risk mitigation tactics. I varied those across samples to minimize participant burden and increase the number of ways these questions can be asked. This over-estimation of risk, and its corresponding relationship with continuing restrictions past vaccinations, also emerged when looking at an array of fact- or knowledge-based variables. For example, in Samples A–D, NNPs were endorsed more strongly by people who believed (incorrectly) that COVID-19 was the main cause of death in the US in 2020 or they labeled as false the UK practice that COVID-19 deaths are designated if the person dies within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test.

Other notable findings

I explored the relationship between risk estimations, personal characteristics, and COVID-19 mitigation behavior. One of the most consistent predictors of NNP was identifying as liberal. This relationship emerged not only in US samples but also in global Prolific ones and Australian/New Zealand community samples. Greater estimates of COVID-19 risks were also positively related to participants’ current self-report compliance with health-minded measures, as evidenced by associations with core and PSE indicators. Conspiracy beliefs were negatively related to compliance. Finally, Sample E showed that having recovered from COVID-19 is negatively related to support for the new normal .

Collectively, these findings raise important questions about laypeople’s perceptions of risks, COVID-19, and decision-makers’ role in managing all misinformation. People’s concern over COVID-19 can encourage pro-social behaviors to mitigate the risk of COVID-19 (e. g, contact tracing, compliance, and vaccination or vaccination intent). However, if their perceived risk and fear are disproportionally high (relative to the threat), it may become deleterious to cost-benefit analyses essential for COVID-19 and may be misused to encourage compliance based on fear. Laypeople have the power to impact public policy through the democratic process. If they greatly over-estimate COVID-19 risks and if they do not differentiate between practices that are based on evidence from those that are based on social contracts or desire to create a feeling of safety [ 140 ], their feelings of short-term safety might greatly compromise long-term trust in experts, leaders, and science.

Lessons, limitations, and boundaries of conclusions

When interpreting the results of this study, readers should be aware of several notable limitations. These limitations largely emerged due to efforts to employ multiple ways of asking participants about COVID-19 risks and interpreting those findings against the ever-changing knowledge of risks offered by health scientists.

First, while the study relied on multiple risk indicators, it is by no means a definitive record of all core risk information about COVID-19. Future research should expand these indicators and use the open data from this study to challenge and extend the field’s knowledge of how laypeople perceive negative COVID-19 consequences. Similarly, future research should also consider multiple manifestations of the new normal , as I only focused on its darker side (vaccine passports and masking in perpetuity). However, through bringing attention to hygiene practices, the importance of strong healthcare systems and sick leave, and the management of other viral illnesses (including flu), there are numerous positive elements of post-pandemic life that might garner broader support from people.

Second, despite relying on participants from several different countries, the study did not examine the situational, cultural, or political factors that may explain the difference between, for instance, Australia/NZ (Sample D) and the US (Sample A). Sample differences are reported in S3 Table . Therefore, the converging results across those samples should only be used as evidence of generalizability; they should not be used to make inferences about cross-cultural comparisons or population-level attitudes. Follow-up research would benefit from documenting empirically the social conditions, government responses, and perceptions of media that lead to differences between country-level scores. Importantly, future research should also go beyond the cross-sectional data collection and examine whether risk estimation leads to new normal endorsement (or even vice versa) over time.

Third, the study only assessed risk estimation as one of many potential predictors of continuing restrictions post-vaccinations. While I chose this predictor deliberately based on recent evidence that people over-estimate COVID-19 risks, there are other reasons that could presumably influence participants’ support for ongoing restrictions (e.g., participants’ general pro-sociality, their perceptions of greater risk to the older adults, and trust in governments).

Fourth, findings from itemized knowledge-based indicators should be interpreted with caution. Recall that the main reason for supplementing core with alternative indicators was to expand the generalizability of the results while minimizing participant fatigue. Establishing the correctness and accuracy of COVID-19 items when knowledge continues to evolve is challenging, particularly for lay audiences. I selected items for which there is empirical support (e.g., vaccines reduce hospitalizations and deaths) and for which there is not (e.g., there is a high chance of COVID-19 transmission in outdoor settings). However, it is possible that there are other sources that can challenge the citations I provided in Measures section and that the available information changes. For instance, I had labeled the item claiming that the virus was made in the lab as a conspiracy theory (Samples A–D). Since that time, however, this possibility has been under investigation [ 110 ].

Those knowledge-based findings should, therefore, only be used to identify potential sources of over- or under-estimation, and this should be done while recognizing that the sources and the data represent what is known at one point in time. I decided to present those items and share this data in the main manuscript (vs. SI), despite the noted analytical limitations with the hope of understanding the sources of individuals’ COVID-19 risk miscalibration and allowing other researchers to do the same. Future research could simplify the interpretation by eliminating the continuous response structure, labeling each item as True/False, and employing an item response theory to assess participants’ responses. The challenge here is that many COVID-19 claims come with caveats, but the benefits of binary assessments may outweigh the need for nuance. In retrospect, that is what I would have done with this study.

Fifth, I assessed participants’ concerns over contracting COVID-19 in all samples. However, I inadequately explored its role because it is not evident whether its functions as a predictor or a dependent variable. To be sure, that challenge is present in all my other interpretations due to the cross-sectional nature of this data. From a theoretical perspective, however, it is plausible that concern over contracting COVID-19 leads one to consume fear-based information selectively, causing them to over-inflate the risks; or, it is equally plausible that over-inflation of risks causes one to be more concerned. Path analyses support both speculations (available from the author). Because the nature of the two variables is likely mutually reinforcing [ 141 ], future research can acknowledge that concern over COVID-19 has value and consider how it relates to risk-estimation and NNP endorsement over time.

Finally, the data and conclusions in this study should only be used with the intent of advancing one’s understanding of laypeople’s risk perceptions. While my study shows that over-estimations of COVID-19 risks are associated with NNP endorsement, I did not identify all the possible reasons why a person might support NNPs. Therefore, these findings should not be used to negatively judge individuals who choose to continue following the health-minded suggestions, wearing masks, and socially distancing. People who are cautious likely have valid reasons to continue following the public health recommendations, and those reasons were not documented in this study.

Beyond the data: Unanswered questions and consideration of social implications of COVID-19 risk over-estimations

What should be done with the findings presented in this manuscript? At times when health institutes, news outlets, and governments seek to educate the population and warn them against conspiracy theories which often greatly under -estimate, if not fully negate COVID-19 [ 26 , 131 ], results of this study and recent polls suggest that many people over -estimate risks. In turn, people who over-estimate risks are more likely to support the ‘new normal’ of continued or re-imposed restrictions. Deciding whether to scrutinize and correct misinformation associated with over-estimates requires considering the costs of doing and not doing so. If only under-estimates are corrected, people may continue to over-estimate the risks of COVID-19 and comply with mandates, perhaps in perpetuity. The collateral cost here is that people’s actions may be driven by fear, making them susceptible to ‘psychological shock tactics,’ a tool admittedly used by the Belgian health minister [ 142 ]. If both erroneous estimates are corrected, people may start reducing their compliance with re-imposed restrictions on movement and refusing vaccines, boosters, and masks.

Determining whether general compliance (or resistance) is proportional to COVID-19’s threat requires an open discussion of value systems, which in turn requires a decently informed and knowledgeable constituent base. Both over-, but also under-estimating risks can be costly in terms of time, money, resources, and even lives [ 4 ], and pandemics conditions are ripe for a medical version of the ‘Hobbesian nightmare–the war against all’ [ 143 ]. Similarly, Baral and colleagues [ 13 ] state that: “Minimizing deaths from COVID-19 over the long-term is critical, but so too is minimizing all-cause mortality and the preservation of other health and social services. Pandemics present no winners.”

Based on the results of this study and the literature summarized in the introduction, uncorrected misinformation that inflates COVID-19 risks and presents data partially (e.g., featuring ‘long Covid’ articles without mentioning that the studies generating knowledge were conducted on hospitalized patients) will jeopardize risk assessment and will cast doubt that the existing fear-based availability cascades will stop with vaccinations and even with booster mandates. Instead, people and decision-makers may continue to apply the maximin principle for the foreseeable future and deal with all new and inevitable COVID-19 risks from the perspective of the worst-case scenario, thus preventing the restoration of social and economic life (WHO).

Therefore, I recommend that governments, decision-makers, and citizens confront all misinformation with equal rigor and hold media and public health figures accountable for educating rather than ‘shocking’ their constituents into compliance. After all, COVID-19 will likely continue [ 7 ], and public health education will be necessary to reduce risks to lives and health systems. Still, risk management should ensure that efforts to protect those who are vulnerable now do not come at the cost of those who will be vulnerable later (e.g., children whose education has been disrupted, young adults whose economic prospects may be jeopardized, and non-COVID-19 patients whose treatments have been disrupted). Despite their flaws and imperfections, democracies are stronger if decisions are transparent and citizens are reasonably well-informed [ 4 ], and the COVID-19 decision-making process should not be exempt from those principles [ 12 ]. Global policies based on selective dissemination and consumption of fear-based information and the pursuit of one objective at the expense of all others prevent the construction of a stable foundation on which lasting, empirically informed, and perhaps even more adaptable, post-pandemic life can be built.

Supporting information

S1 fig. visual distribution of core estimation indicators (samples a–d)..

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s001

S1 Table. NNP endorsement descriptive statistics by sample.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s002

S2 Table. Additional descriptive information (Samples A–D).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s003

S3 Table. ANOVA results.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s004

S4 Table. One sample T test results per sample.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s005

S5 Table. Correlations and descriptives per sample.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s006

S6 Table. Regression results per sample.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s007

S7 Table. Regression results with controls per sample.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s008

S8 Table. Predicting RN-fear with controls.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s009

S9 Table. Descriptive statistics and correlations without outliers.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s010

S1 File. Additional results file.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0266602.s011

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Cash-strapped Trump is now selling $60 Bibles, U.S. Constitution included

Rachel Treisman

Then-President Donald Trump holds up a Bible outside St. John's Episcopal Church in Washington, D.C., during a controversial 2020 photo-op. Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Then-President Donald Trump holds up a Bible outside St. John's Episcopal Church in Washington, D.C., during a controversial 2020 photo-op.

Former President Donald Trump is bringing together church and state in a gilded package for his latest venture, a $60 "God Bless The USA" Bible complete with copies of the nation's founding documents.

Trump announced the launch of the leather-bound, large-print, King James Bible in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday — a day after the social media company surged in its trading debut and two days after a New York appeals court extended his bond deadline to comply with a ruling in a civil fraud case and slashed the bond amount by 61%.

"Happy Holy Week! Let's Make America Pray Again," Trump wrote. "As we lead into Good Friday and Easter, I encourage you to get a copy of the God Bless The USA Bible."

Consider This from NPR

Why trump's persecution narrative resonates with christian supporters.

The Bible is inspired by "God Bless the USA," the patriotic Lee Greenwood anthem that has been a fixture at many a Trump rally (and has a long political history dating back to Ronald Reagan). It is the only Bible endorsed by Trump as well as Greenwood, according to its promotional website .

The Bible is only available online and sells for $59.99 (considerably more expensive than the traditional Bibles sold at major retailers, or those available for free at many churches and hotels). It includes Greenwood's handwritten chorus of its titular song as well as copies of historical documents including the U.S. Constitution, Declaration of Independence and Pledge of Allegiance.

"Many of you have never read them and don't know the liberties and rights you have as Americans, and how you are being threatened to lose those rights," Trump said in a three-minute video advertisement.

"Religion and Christianity are the biggest things missing from this country, and I truly believe that we need to bring them back and we have to bring them back fast."

'You gotta be tough': White evangelicals remain enthusiastic about Donald Trump

Trump critics on both sides of the aisle quickly criticized the product, characterizing it as self-serving and hypocritical.

Conservative political commentator Charlie Sykes slammed him for "commodifying the Bible during Holy Week," while Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota critiqued him for "literally taking a holy book and selling it, and putting it out there in order to make money for his campaign."

Trump says the money isn't going to his campaign, but more on that below.

Klobuchar added that Trump's public attacks on others are "not consistent with the teachings of the Bible," calling this "one more moment of hypocrisy." Tara Setmayer, a senior adviser for anti-Trump Republican PAC the Lincoln Project, called it "blasphemous ."

And former Rep. Liz Cheney, a Republican from Wyoming, trolled Trump with a social media post alluding to his alleged extramarital affairs.

"Happy Holy Week, Donald," she wrote. "Instead of selling Bibles, you should probably buy one. And read it, including Exodus 20:14 ."

Christianity is an increasingly prominent part of his campaign

Trump has made a point of cultivating Christian supporters since his 2016 presidential campaign and remains popular with white evangelicals despite his multiple divorces, insults toward marginalized groups and allegations of extramarital affairs and sexual assault.

And his narrative of being persecuted — including in the courts — appears to resonate with his many Christian supporters.

Trump has increasingly embraced Christian nationalist ideas in public. He promised a convention of religious broadcasters last month that he would use a second term to defend Christian values from the "radical left," swearing that "no one will be touching the cross of Christ under the Trump administration."

He made similar comments in the Bible promotional video, in which he warned that "Christians are under siege" and the country is "going haywire" because it lost religion.

What to know about the debut of Trump's $399 golden, high-top sneakers

"We must defend God in the public square and not allow the media or the left-wing groups to silence, censor or discriminate against us," he said. "We have to bring Christianity back into our lives and back into what will be again a great nation."

Trump himself is not known to be particularly religious or a regular churchgoer. He long identified as Presbyterian but announced in 2020 that he identified as nondenominational .

A Pew Research Center survey released earlier this month found that most people with positive views of Trump don't see him as especially religious, but think he stands up for people with religious beliefs like their own.

Trump said in the promotional video that he has many Bibles at home.

"It's my favorite book," he said, echoing a comment he's made in previous years. "It's a lot of people's favorite book."

The Impact Of Christian Nationalism On American Democracy

Trump's relationship to the Bible has been a point of discussion and sometimes controversy over the years.

In 2020, amid protests over George Floyd's murder, he posed with a Bible outside a Washington, D.C., church, for which he was widely criticized. U.S. Park Police and National Guard troops had tear-gassed peaceful protesters in the area beforehand, seemingly to make way for the photo-op, though a watchdog report the following year determined otherwise .

That same year, a clip of a 2015 Bloomberg interview, in which Trump declines to name his favorite — or any — Bible verse resurfaced on social media and went viral.

Bible sales are unlikely to solve Trump's financial problems

An FAQ section on the Bible website says no profits will go to Trump's reelection campaign.

"GodBlessTheUSABible.com is not political and has nothing to do with any political campaign," it says.

However, the site adds that it uses Trump's name, likeness and image "under paid license from CIC Ventures LLC."

Trump is listed as the manager, president, secretary and treasurer of CIC Ventures LLC in a financial disclosure from last year.

Here's what happens if Trump can't pay his $454 million bond

Trump's sales pitch focuses on bringing religion back to America.

"I want to have a lot of people have it," he said at one point in the video. "You have to have it for your heart and for your soul."

But many are wondering whether Trump has something else to gain from Bible sales while facing under mounting financial pressure.

There's his presidential reelection campaign, which has raised only about half of what Biden's has so far this cycle. Trump acknowledged Monday that he "might" spend his own money on his campaign, something he hasn't done since 2016.

There's also his mounting legal expenses, as he faces four criminal indictments and numerous civil cases. Trump posted bond to support a $83.3 million jury award granted to writer E. Jean Carroll in a defamation case earlier this month, and was due to put up another $454 million in a civil fraud case this past Monday.

Trump is on the verge of a windfall of billions of dollars. Here are 3 things to know

His lawyers had said last week that they had approached 30 companies for help making bond, but doing so was a "practical impossibility" — prompting New York's attorney general to confirm that if Trump did not pay, she would move to seize his assets . On Monday, the appeals court reduced the bond amount to $175 million and gave Trump another 10 days to post it.

Trump has evidently been trying to raise money in other ways.

The day after the civil fraud judgment was announced, he debuted a line of $399 golden, high-top sneakers , which sold out in hours . The company behind his social media app, Truth Social, started trading on the Nasdaq exchange on Tuesday, which could deliver him a windfall of more than $3 billion — though he can't sell his shares for another six months.

Donald J. Trump
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3 Basic tips on writing a good research paper title; How to write an effective title and abstract and choose appropriate keywords; And for information around the new normal, that is, the post-COVID-19 life, you may find it worthwhile to go through our dedicated site on the pandemic: covid19.researcher.life. Hope that helps. All the best for ...
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