drought in kenya case study

• Previous Article
• Next Article

INTRODUCTION

Methodology, case studies, conclusion and recommendations, a review of the impact of climate change on water security and livelihoods in semiarid africa: cases from kenya, malawi, and ghana.

Supporting Information: https://www.webofscience.com/wos/woscc/summary/9467d6e0-2549-40bc-9e76-89fdc0b08c72-596a127d/relevance/1

• Cite Icon Cite
• Open the PDF for in another window
• Permissions
• Article contents
• Figures & tables
• Supplementary Data
• Peer Review
• Search Site

Dinko Hanaan Dinko , Ibrahim Bahati; A Review of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Security and Livelihoods in Semiarid Africa: Cases From Kenya, Malawi, and Ghana. Journal of Climate Resilience and Justice 2023; 1 107–118. doi: https://doi.org/10.1162/crcj_a_00002

Download citation file:

• Ris (Zotero)
• Reference Manager

Within semiarid Africa, precipitation is the most important hydrological variable upon which livelihoods are carved since it determines the cycle of rainfall and water security needed for agriculture. However, research shows that climate change has largely altered that. This article critically reviews the extensive literature on climate-water-livelihoods in semiarid sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the common threads that underlie them. By comparing three cases in three different regions (Ghana for West Africa, Kenya for East Africa, and Malawi for Southern Africa), this article provides a basis for cross-comparison and a framework for understanding the impact of climate change on water security and livelihoods in semiarid Africa. A cross-country, cross-region comparison of the impact of climate change on water security is essential for long-term and medium-term preparedness for adaptation to climate-induced water insecurity. Crucially, this calls for a renewed focus on the synergies between climate change and social, ecological, political, and economic factors, which have often been ignored in the water insecurity and climate change discourse on semiarid areas.

Water resources in Africa’s semiarid regions have come under pressure over the last 4 decades, to warnings of reaching near “dangerous levels of water stress” ( World Bank, 2022 ). Due to climate change, water insecurity in Africa and beyond has brought an existential debate about water ethics in terms of use, access rights, and sustainability ( Groenfeldt, 2019 ). Water insecurity includes elements of water scarcity where the water demand exceeds water availability and lack of access to safe water supplies ( Matchawe et al., 2022 ). Swelling urban growth, environmental degradation, and anthropogenic pollution continue to limit access for large populations in the region ( Kahn, 2009 ). With livelihoods in semiarid Africa carved around rainfed agriculture, the impact of climate change and variability on food and income security remains uncertain, putting the discourse of water insecurity into the greater hydropolitics of water ( Hellberg, 2018 ). For example, Kankam-Yeboah et al. (2013) have projected a 50% decrease in streamflow in the Volta Basin by 2050. Similarly, Barron et al. (2015) have discussed how agricultural water management interventions for smallholders in the Volta and Limpopo basins could be best utilized to build resilience against climate change. The impact of climate change on floods and droughts in terms of vulnerability and disaster risk reduction in the northern savannah has been explored ( Armah et al., 2010 ; Douxchamps et al., 2014 ; Poussin et al., 2015 ). While these are important in the climate-water-livelihoods discourse in semiarid Africa, they tended to be basin-specific ( Abubakari et al., 2017 ; Kankam-Yeboah et al., 2013 ; Mahe et al., 2013 ; Niasse, 2005 ; Oyebande, 2013 ), model-oriented ( Faramarzi et al., 2013 ; Muller, 2009 ; Nyadzi et al., 2018 ; Roudier et al., 2014 ; Thomas & Nigam, 2018 ), or subregion focused ( Barry et al., 2018 ; Callo-Concha et al., 2013 ; Oyebande, 2013 ; Paeth et al., 2008 ; Yaro & Hesselberg, 2016 ).

Transcending these gaps, this article provides a rapid review of the climate-water-livelihoods literature in semiarid sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the common thread that underlies them. The article first looks at individual case analyses of how Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi are dealing with climate-water-insecurity, followed by cross-comparison in understanding the impact of climate in semiarid Africa. The article aims to highlight how climate change and water insecurity are urgencies of both nation-states and regions, calling for short and long-term adaptation and preparedness to climate-induced water insecurity.

Furthermore, water security issues need to be tied to the greater debate on the political economy of tackling climate change ( Fritz et al., 2021 ), including adaptation ( Sovacool & Linnér, 2016 ), framing, and knowledge dissemination ( Armstrong et al., 2018 ), and understanding the relationship between climate change and capital accumulation ( Xie & Cheng, 2021 ). Developing countries, including those in semiarid Africa, have been the least contributors to climate change, yet still operate in the confines of the managerial climate change policy approach from the Global North ( Arnall et al., 2014 ), including talks of “just transitions” ( Newell & Mulvaney, 2013 ) to green economies. The political economy of climate change here deals with nuances between the social and political processes on how water insecurity has affected livelihoods and created urgencies of disaster preparedness in semiarid Africa.

We conducted a rapid review of the literature on climate change and water security in the three countries. Unlike a systematic review, a rapid review does not require a double review of each paper. Additionally, a rapid review limits analysis to only the papers from the queried results database. Although it is less systematic, rapid reviews provide well-timed and data-informed contextualized summaries of the literature for policymakers to address evolving issues quickly ( Kerr et al., 2022 ; Khangura et al., 2012 ; Sharpe et al., 2017 ), while shaping ongoing scholarly discourse. We conducted a systematic search in Web of Science using Boolean operatives and keywords as shown in the Supporting Information . Using the search criteria, 1,150 papers were refined further to journal articles, reviews, and book chapters. This process generated 1,030 papers (see the Supporting Information for details). The 1,030 papers were screened for contextual relevance, subject relevance, and credibility (see Figure 1 ). We used two main criteria to determine the credibility of papers. First, papers were deemed credible if methods, data, and conclusions logically flow into each other. Second, the papers were deemed credible if they were not published in journals on Beall’s List ( Beall, 2022 ).

Summary of refined Web of Science database search. *Some papers are cross-listed across disciplines. Generated from Web of Science at Clarivate Query.

After screening for relevance, 154 papers were meticulously reviewed, and 84 ended up being used in the article. The 84 papers were then categorized into the three case studies and read immersively to allow key themes of differences and similarities to emerge. In addition, eight grey literature sources from government and the World Bank were included in this article to provide relevant contextual data for the three countries (see Table 1 ). We included all studies from 1990 to 2021 that addressed the relationship between climate change, water security, and impacts on livelihoods in the three countries. Papers that did not explicitly examine the intersections of climate change impacts on water insecurity and livelihoods were excluded.

Summary of Web of Science Searches and the Number of Papers Reviewed

The following subsections show how climate change has altered the cycle of rainfall and caused water insecurity in semiarid Africa. It presents literature by case analysis in the three countries, highlighting the trajectory of climate change evidence, projections on water insecurity, and regional implications on livelihoods.

Kenya Case Study

In Kenya, agriculture remains the main driver of economic growth and employs more than half of the labor force, which is reliant on the availability of water. The importance of agriculture is reflected in the fact that in 2017, agriculture contributed to 65% of merchandise exports ( Wankuru et al., 2019 ). With 80% of the landmass being semiarid and less than 2% of arable land under irrigation ( Mogaka et al., 2006 ), Kenya’s economy is particularly vulnerable to climate change and variability. Compared to neighboring Tanzania and Uganda with 2,940 and 2,696 cubic meters of water per capita per year, respectively, Kenya has just about 1,700 cubic meters per capita per year ( Wankuru et al., 2019 ). This makes Kenya a water-scarce country under the United Nations (UN) water classification system ( UN-Water, 2013 ). The hydrology of Kenya is largely governed by the rainfall regime as there are very few transboundary rivers in Kenya. It is also determined by the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which produces two rainfall seasons and two dry seasons. The ITCZ has been disrupted largely by climate change. This is acknowledged by the government of Kenya, which asserts that the country is generally experiencing a warmer temperature trend over the past 5 decades ( GoK, 2013 ). In addition, Nicholson (2016) reports a decreasing rainfall over the semiarid areas in Kenya since the 1970s. Nicholson (2014) further demonstrates that during the 2008–2011 drought in the Horn of Africa, rainfall in northern Kenya was 50–70% below normal seasonal rainfall the decade earlier.

Additionally, drought in Kenya is often driven by La Niña. With multiple consecutive years of droughts, a result of poor rains and dry spells over the past decade, there has been little to no recovery among affected households whose livelihoods are determined by the rhythm of the climate. This puts pressure on existing water resources and thus brews competition for access, control, and use rights to water bodies. In a region characterized by instability and uncontrolled arms circulation, such contestations have often resulted in violent armed conflicts ( Dinko, 2022 ). In semiarid northern Kenya, Witsenburg and Adano (2009) have argued that rainfall does not just determine water availability, but it determines pasture, crop yields, and milk availability. As the water gets scarcer during drought seasons, pressure on shallow wells increases, and the propensity of people to fight for access similarly escalates. Beyond tensions in social relations, droughts have a significant impact on food and livestock production. For instance, the 1990/2000 drought resulted in a decline of one million tons in maize production ( GoK, 2013 ). Such steep declines in a major food staple such as maize have had a knock-on effect on the prices of food, leading to nationwide food insecurity protests recently in July 2022 ( “About 3.5 million Kenyans Facing Food Insecurity—WHO,” 2022 ). Like the food crop sector, livestock production has suffered significant losses in drought years ( Barrios et al., 2010 ; Hope et al., 2012 ; Mogaka et al., 2006 ; Sutherland et al., 1991 ).

Water insecurity resulting from climatic change and variability does not just manifest in droughts but also in floods. While floods may not be as frequent as droughts in Kenya’s semiarid regions, their devastating impact cuts across key sectors of the economy. The flooding regime in Kenya is often associated with the onset of the El Niño warming effect on the tropical pacific region ( Barrios et al., 2010 ; Dunning et al., 2018 ; Gebrechorkos et al., 2019 ; Otieno & Anyah, 2013 ; Nicholson, 2014 ). Unlike droughts whose onset is slow, and whose response could be planned, flash floods are often sudden, and in semiarid Kenya where there is little investment in climate science, floods can be devastating. Opere (2013 , p. 13) reports that the 1997–1998 floods in Kenya “caused some US$151.4 million in public and private property damage” and several hundreds of lives lost. Aside from damage to life and infrastructure, floods also pose a significant threat to public health. Mogaka et al. (2006) show that after the 2003 floods, there was a 60% rise in waterborne diseases and a 32% increase in malaria cases. Wakeford (2017) notes that food and health security are not the only casualties of droughts in Kenya. With 35% of its energy needs dependent on hydroelectricity, the ramifications of droughts reverberate beyond food and ecosystem security to the entire economy ( Karekezi et al., 2009 ; Wakeford, 2017 ). In 2018, the Sondu Miriu Hydroelectric Power Station with an installed generation capacity of 80 megawatts could only generate 10 megawatts ( Gebrechorkos et al., 2019 ). Such a sharp reduction in generating capacity limits economic growth, which in turn has chain effects on well-being and human development in the long run.

Malawi Case Study

In Malawi, climate change poses a significant threat to the economic growth and livelihoods of poor and vulnerable populations. The vulnerability of Malawi to climate change emanates from the fact that agriculture, which supports the livelihoods of 80% of Malawians, is rainfed ( Arndt et al., 2019 ). In addition, Malawi’s industrial front is predominantly agrarian, hence the entire economy is immensely vulnerable to the forces of climatic change. Malawi ranks 171 out of 189 on the league of wealth and poverty nations with a Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.477 ( African Development Bank, 2018 ). Although its HDI increased by 40% between 1990 and 2017, more than half of the population (50.7%) live below the poverty line, while a quarter (25%) are chronically poor ( United Nations Development Programme [UNDP], 2021 ). With more than 90% of the population dependent on rainfed agriculture, climate extremes as manifested in droughts and floods could significantly erode yields and consequently food security. Joshua et al. (2016) indicate that over 15% of Malawians were affected by the 2012/2013 flooding, translating into 2.31 million people in need of food and associated aid while 176 people were killed and a quarter of a million people were displaced.

With climate change expected to increase the frequency of weather extremes, the other climatic threat (besides floods) Malawi is expected to witness is droughts. Observed temperatures over Malawi in the past 50 years indicate an increasing trend of about 0.21°C per decade ( Msowoya et al., 2016 ; Vizy et al., 2015 ). Nicholson et al. (2014) report a 1°C increase in temperature between 1960 and 2006. While there is a clear trend in temperature increases, the rainfall trend is less clear. Mughogho (2014) , for instance, finds that farmers perceived a decreasing amount of rainfall with increasing within-season variability. Ngongondo et al. (2011) similarly report that increases in evaporation losses between 1971 and 2000 have led to a decreased runoff. When taken together, increased temperature and declining rainfall mean that Malawi has experienced less than the usual amount of water. This projection toward a hotter and drier climate is not limited to Malawi, but rather stretched to the whole of the Southern African region as per Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC, 2013 ), noting a likely increase of 5°C by the end of the century. This is similar to what Mariotti et al. (2013) suggest, that Malawi and other countries with a single rainy season will experience a delay in the onset of rains and when rains start, long dry spells will likely be common. In the context of Malawi, where the population growth rate is about 3% ( African Development Bank, 2018 ), this could mean food insecurity and pressure on water resources in the face of a burgeoning population. For instance, Asfaw et al. (2015) suggest that maize production, the predominant food crop accounting for 70% of cropped land in Malawi, has been erratic due to a combination of climate change and other nonclimatic factors, including low technology uptake.

Finally, the food insecurity and poverty situation outlined above essentially highlights water availability or lack thereof (as manifested in floods and droughts) and its impact on agriculture output. De Wit and Stankiewicz (2006) contend that increasing temperature and a concomitant decline in rainfall could lead to a 10% drop in river flow in the Zambezi basin, which covers much of Malawi. This will have a direct impact on water availability for drinking, agricultural use, and hydroelectric power generation in Malawi. Similarly, Kumambala (2010) finds that water levels in Lake Malawi will decline due to increasing droughts and evaporative loss from warmer temperatures. With 92% of Malawians having access to water mainly through surface water sources, which are rain-dependent, changes in precipitation could increase the water insecurity situation.

Ghana Case Study

Surface water is crucial to agriculture and power generation in Ghana’s semiarid region. Climate studies have increasingly indicated rainfall, the source of water upon which surface water sources depend, is decreasing in semiarid Ghana. For instance, Nicholson et al. (2000) reports a reduction of 15 to 40% in rainfall over 30 years (1968–1997) across semiarid West Africa. These findings are consistent with assertions by Owusu and Waylen (2009) that the total amount of rainfall in northern Ghana has declined since the 1960s. The Government of Ghana’s assessment of climate change further acknowledges that Ghana has experienced about a 1°C rise in temperature and a 20% overall reduction in rainfall since 1980 ( U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2000 ). The above findings have been contested by Antwi-Agyei et al. (2017) and Appiah (2019) who observe an improvement in rainfall in recent years, albeit that the recovery has been in the southern forested areas of Ghana. While these contending findings are useful for academic debates, they both use mean annual temperature and rainfall, which may not be relevant because they fail to show within-season variability. In semiarid Ghana, what is important is rainy season variability. It is the unpredictability of seasonal variations that have serious implications on crop production and water insecurity issues. In other words, farmers’ experiences of climate are not in annual averages, but crucially the distribution of rainfall during the rainy season, which has implications on staple crops and water security outcomes for households.

Generally, an overwhelming majority of local climate models in semiarid Ghana point to drying trends, where semiarid areas such as Ghana will get drier, while the wet tropical forest regions will get wetter. A key proponent of the drying thesis is reported by Amadou et al. (2018) , who projects that the mean daily temperature over Ghana will increase by between 2.5°C and 3.2°C, while rainfall is expected to decline by 9 to 27% by the end of the century. This scenario is consistent with observations that rainfall has generally declined over the last 50 years in West Africa due to the long-term general southward shift of the migration of the ITCZ ( Dickinson et al., 2017 ).

Changes in rainfall translate into food and water security challenges. In Ghana’s semiarid region, there is growing evidence that the impacts of climate change will significantly alter the water security cycle with debilitating consequences on food security and poverty reduction and undermine adaptive capacity ( Dinko et al., 2019 ; Nyantakyi-Frimpong & Bezner-Kerr, 2015 ; Yaro, 2013 ). According to Ghana’s Third National Communication Report to the UNFCCC , observed historical minimum temperatures have increased by 2% in the south (rainforest, coastal agroecological, deciduous, and transition zones) and 37% in the north (Guinea and Sudan savannah zones) ( Amlalo & Oppong-Boadi, 2015 ). When taken together as a geospatial unit, the average rate of climate change may present modest changes in Ghana. However, this picture is misleading as it masks wide spatial variation of observed and projected climatic changes.

Like observed and projected temperature changes, rainfall decline is greater in the Sudan Savannah than in any other agroecological zone. Because agriculture is almost exclusively rainfed coupled with limited diversification of livelihood options, the decline in rainfall has the potential to offset large-scale multiple shocks to the Ghanaian economy. The combined ramifications for national security could be dire.

Linking climate change with ongoing demographic and agricultural land expansion in semiarid Ghana highlights the scope and nature of future vulnerability to climatic shocks and stress. Grazing land and livestock production (which is predominant in semiarid Ghana) are vulnerable to climate change for three plausible reasons. First, decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation due to rising temperatures in semiarid regions could potentially reduce the primary productivity of grazing land and accompanying livestock carrying capacity. Second, prolonged droughts could directly lead to the loss of herds. The third reason is a loss of biomass. Repeated and prolonged drought could decimate the capacity of soil to regenerate sufficient biomass to sustain growing livestock. This may leave the soil unable to recover even during wetter periods.

Beyond climate impact on agriculture, the effect of a changing climate on water bodies in semiarid areas presents a significant threat to livelihood security. Studies by Alcamo et al. (2003) , Ojo et al. (2004) , and Riede et al. (2016) forecast that by the year 2050, rainfall in West Africa will decline by 10%, prompting major water shortages. They further reason that the 10% decrease in precipitation would translate into a 17%–20% reduction in runoff, while semiarid regions such as semiarid Ghana may experience a reduction of 50%–30%, respectively, in the surface drainage. With a population growth above 2.7% ( Bongaarts & Casterline, 2013 ; Yansaneh, 2005 ), competition and pressure on water resources could double within this same period in the Sudan Savannah. This could lead to a decline in agricultural production and significantly affect food inflation, thus affecting food availability, access, and stability. The northern savannah belt faces an even more serious dilemma. The region is already experiencing a decline in soil fertility, declining yields, and environmental desertification. Declining precipitation could exacerbate these stresses and throw poverty reduction efforts out of gear.

Comparative Analysis of the Three Countries and Key Takeaways

This literature review examined the intersections of climate change and water insecurity in semiarid Africa using Kenya, Malawi, and Ghana as case studies. In three cases, there is growing evidence that climate change has negatively impacted water security, and the trend is projected to continue. The predominance of rainfed agriculture coupled with the fact that agriculture remains the largest single employer in all three countries particularly make them sensitive to climate change and variability. The sector accounts for roughly 40% of employment in Kenya and Ghana and about 80% of employment in Malawi ( Wankuru et al., 2019 ). Intersecting with high dependence on rainfed agriculture is low human development, which explains the low autonomous and institutional adaptive capacities.

While the above shows similarities among the three cases, there exist some differences that must be highlighted. Generally, while Kenya and Ghana are expected to endure increasing temperatures and a simultaneous decline in rainfall, Malawi is expected to receive a modest increase in rainfall overall with associated floods. Malawi, however, is expected to endure the greatest temperature increase of all three cases, as Table 2 shows.

Summary of the Nature of Climatic Changes in the Three Case Studies and Implications on Water Security

Table 2 shows both the observed and projected changes of climate change in Kenya, Malawi, and Ghana from the likelihood of turning into extreme events and the most likely impact it will cause on water security and livelihoods. In all three countries, we observe that there has been an increase in temperatures by 1°C from the 1980s to the late 2000s. However, by the end of the century, there is a projected increase in temperature of 3.2°C for Ghana, 4.5°C for Kenya, and 6°C for Malawi, leaving Kenya and Malawi more susceptible to intense droughts and floods, heatwaves, and severe droughts than Ghana. Also, Kenya and Malawi will experience more water stress in terms of evaporation losses and unpredictable rainfalls, aggravating food production and livelihoods more than Ghana. The FAO AQUASTAT (2022) data in Figure 2 further shows that from 1995 to 2019, the percent of people in Kenya who have become water stressed has increased from 14.8% to 33.2%, followed by Malawi (12.7% to 17.5%) and Ghana, which has moved from 3.7% to 6.3% of people who are water stressed.

Percentage of water-stressed people in Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi from 1990 to 2019. Compiled from FAO AQUASTAT (2022) .

In semiarid Kenya, climate-induced water insecurity has led to violent armed conflicts over water resources. Prolonged droughts have plunged millions of people into hunger necessitating a declaration of a humanitarian crisis over the Horn of Africa 1 . Violent conflicts over water resources in semiarid Kenya have thrust to the fore the role of water insecurity in exacerbating existing societal tensions. It also shows how already fragile societies can further disintegrate under the threat of climate-induced water insecurity. In comparison to Ghana and Malawi, climate-induced water insecurity has not led to violent armed conflicts, albeit anecdotal evidence suggests there are growing contestations in semiarid Ghana for access to and control over water for dry season farming and rearing of animals.

This article reviewed the literature on the nexus of climate change and water security in semiarid Africa, focusing on three cases from Kenya, Malawi, and Ghana. It has highlighted the nature and extent of climatic changes and how these changes intersect with water security in semiarid Africa. Generally, while climate change is driving water insecurity in semiarid Africa, the literature confirms that the preexisting socioeconomic conditions have exacerbated their vulnerability. Through a comparative analysis of the three countries, the review of the literature shows that there are synergies between climate change and social, ecological, political, and economic factors that have often been ignored in the water insecurity and climate change discourse in semiarid areas. There is an urgent need to examine the contestations arising from multiple and competing uses of surface water and how policy engagements can bring fair regulation of access outcomes. Again, with climate-induced water insecurity likely to increase, sufficient knowledge is needed to understand how internal functions of language, culture, and politics continue to determine who gets access rights to water. Sufficient knowledge is also necessary to understand how differences in social inequalities are reproduced and the ways societies are coping in times of water insecurity crises.

This review of the literature highlights the need for capacity building to achieve adaptation and mitigation processes that equip different stakeholders (including nation-states, businesses, and local people) in building sustainable and climate-resilient water systems. Smallholder farmers should be empowered to anticipate and respond robustly to climate change–induced water insecurity without losing their basic access to water for household and agricultural needs ( Adger, 2006 ; Cutter et al., 2003 ; Dixon & Stringer, 2015 ). This can be achieved through agroecology ( Woodgate, 2016 ) and a participatory approach where key issues of land rights, labor, gender, and food security are part of the programming ( Bahati et al., 2022 ) as agrarian change ensues in larger parts of semiarid Africa.

Finally, while climate change may be increasing the severity of natural hazards, the impact is exacerbated by social, ecological, political, and economic factors ( Yaro et al., 2015 ). The vulnerability of the three countries as shown in this article is simultaneously embedded in the broader socioeconomic challenges that are faced. Climatic changes will increasingly lead to more water stress and an increase in temperature. This means that the ability of people in the three countries to adapt and respond robustly to climate extremes such as droughts and floods is a function of idiosyncratic and wider forces, including the state of the national economy and the nature of economic activities. Thus, the vulnerability of the three countries should not just be viewed from the changes in the climatic variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation) but from the fact that they are largely rainfed agrarian economies, albeit with growing diversification in the case of Ghana and Kenya. In essence, the impact of climate-induced water insecurity is filtered through other nonclimatic factors, including demographic dynamics, the nature of livelihood pursuits, water policies, and other pertinent socioeconomic drivers. Building resilient local systems that use both Indigenous and modern methods of farming, water preservation, and conservation to combat climate-induced water insecurity should be given priority since water insecurity can easily accelerate social conflict in semiarid areas.

The Horn of Africa consists of Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Kenya. Eastern Uganda is sometimes added.

Author notes

Advertisement

Related Articles

Affiliations.

• Online ISSN 2832-4641

A product of The MIT Press

Mit press direct.

• About MIT Press Direct

Information

• Accessibility
• For Authors
• For Customers
• For Librarians
• Direct to Open
• Open Access
• Media Inquiries
• Rights and Permissions
• For Advertisers
• About the MIT Press
• The MIT Press Reader
• MIT Press Blog
• Seasonal Catalogs
• MIT Press Home
• Give to the MIT Press
• Direct Service Desk
• Terms of Use
• Privacy Statement
• Crossref Member
• COUNTER Member  
• The MIT Press colophon is registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only

Sign In or Create an Account

Flash Appeal launched as 2.5 million face ‘dire situation’ in Kenya 

Facebook Twitter Print Email

Immediate action is needed to respond to the severe drought that is ravaging communities in Kenya’s dry regions – categorized as Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) - the UN’s humanitarian affairs office (OCHA) said on Friday. 

Two and half million people are already experiencing deep food insecurity after two back-to-back rainy seasons failed. 

By November, it will have nearly tripled since the same time last year, OCHA warned.  “People in the ASAL region are facing a dire situation”, said Stephen Jackson, UN Resident Coordinator for Kenya, as he launched the humanitarian  Flash Appeal  for the Kenya Drought response . 

Speaking from Nairobi Mr. Jackson said people in Wajir, Northern Kenya, had not seen rain for over a year. Acute malnutrition rates are rising rapidly, posing an imminent risk to children and pregnant and lactating women.  

📢FLASH APPEAL! A severe drought is ravaging communities across #Kenya.UN and partners seek US $139.5 M to deliver urgently-needed assistance to 1.27 M people whose lives have been hardest-hit by the crisis. https://t.co/QclPQi1UQa UN Humanitarian UNOCHA

Lives ‘upended’  

He described how a mother at the El-Nur Clinic supported by the World Food Programme (WFP) and the UN Children’s Fund ( UNICEF ) “told me she could not feed her children that morning, and does not know if she would be able to put food on the table that evening. 

Many of her livestock have already died because of the drought”. And “all of this comes on top of the 2017 drought, COVID and the recent locust infestations”, he noted.  

“I met with women, men, and children in Wajir, who all told me how their lives are being upended by the drought . 

“It is imperative that we act now, working closely with communities and community-led organizations, to alleviate the suffering that has been caused by back-to-back poor rainy seasons”, Mr. Jackson said, reiterating that “should the October ‘short rains’ now fail – as they are projected to do – Kenya will be facing an even deeper crisis”. 

Kenya Flash Appeal  

The Kenya Drought Flash Appeal calls for nearly $139.5 million to deliver relief to 1.3 million people whose lives have been hardest hit by the crisis. 

An estimated $28.5 million has already been received from donors, including $5 million from the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund. 

The appeal brings together 45 humanitarian partners, including UN agencies, international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), national NGOs and the Kenya Red Cross Society, to complement the Government’s response to the drought crisis in the ASAL region. 

Needs growing 

Mr. Jackson pointed out that Kenya’s Government has already been responding to the crisis. Ksh 1.7 billion (around $17 million) in public funds has already been allocated and Kenya has announced a further Ksh two billion ($20 million). 

Since January the UN and international partners have already been reaching almost half a million people to protect their lives and their livelihoods, he said, “But it is not enough”. 

Kenya urgently needs approximately $60 million for food and job security, $40 million for nutrition, $20 million for Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH), some $10 million for health investments, and $7 million for education and other related sectors, the UN Resident Coordinator for Kenya said. 

“We aim to deliver a full package of support in counties that will face the deepest and most severe needs in the months to come”. 

'Time to act is now' 

Welcoming how the UN system in Kenya had already come together to “respond as one”, Mr. Jackson insisted on the urgency of the situation: “The time to act is now”. International support will save lives and livelihoods, he said. 

The “ severe impact of the global climate emergency is being felt across the Horn of Africa ” he noted. 

Referring to the recent Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change  report  he pointed out that “once sporadic droughts in Africa are becoming much more frequent, more severe and more long-lasting”. 

Neither Kenya nor the African continent were major culprits in creating the climate emergency, he said, yet they are amongst those most heavily impacted by it. “We must do everything we can, immediately, to protect the lives of those already impacted by this deep and cruel drought”.  

• food insecurity
• humanitarian aid

Search form

Kenya drought response plan, january - december 2023 (issued january 2023), attachments.

Overview of the Situation

Kenya has experienced five consecutive below-average rainy seasons, causing the longest and most severe drought in recent history and driving rapidly rising humanitarian needs across the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) region. An estimated 6.4 million people will require humanitarian assistance in 2023, including about 602,000 refugees, representing a 35 per cent increase compared to 2022. This is the highest number of people in need recorded in Kenya in at least the last 10 years. According to the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, the impact of the drought on food and income is driving crisis (IPC 3) outcomes across the pastoral areas and driving emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes across the ASAL region. There is a 10 per cent year-end rise in people currently facing acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or 4) in 23 ASAL counties, totalling 3.5 million people.

In pastoral areas, herders have suffered widespread losses, with a recorded 2.6 million livestock deaths attributed to the drought.

Pastoral households continue to face precipitous declines in milk availability and livestock-related sources of food, including due to migration of livestock far away from typical grazing areas and homesteads. As a result, milk consumption among women, children, and the elderly has decreased dramatically, with grave consequences for nutrition. Over 677,900 children and more than 138,800 pregnant and breastfeeding women in the ASAL region are expected to face acute malnutrition in 2023, according to the latest Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) analysis.

In agro-pastoral areas, well-below-average rainfall has limited land preparation and planting, resulting in minimal harvests. In turn, this has decreased income, resulting in farmers not being able to invest in future seed purchases, as well as below-average agricultural labour opportunities. Sharp declines in purchasing power are creating large food consumption gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition among millions of households in these areas. Households are increasingly reliant on off-own farm activities, such as petty trade, to earn income and minimize food consumption gaps.

At the same time, staple food prices have risen across Kenya because of below-average production combined with increased fuel prices and reduced cross-border imports from Uganda and Tanzania. Market prices for staple commodities such as maize and beans were 60-90 per cent more expensive than the five-year average in February 2023, according to the Short Rains Assessment 2022. Where they are available, households are purchasing cheaper and less-preferred alternatives like cowpeas, pigeon peas, green grams, sorghum, millet, and non-milled maize and rice.

As a result, acute food insecurity has risen to its highest levels in at least a decade, with 5.4 million people in the ASAL region of Kenya projected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) by March 2023, according to the IPC analysis. With the response unable to keep pace with the needs due to underfunding, Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit and Wajir counties are expected to shift from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) by March 2023, while Kajiado, Laikipia and Nyeri will move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

The drought has taken a devastating toll on communities’ access to water: almost 95 per cent of water pans dried up in 2022. People are now having to trek between 8.6 and 17.6 kilometres to access water, at least 38 per cent above the three-year average, according to the National Drought Management Agency. This forces women and girls to travel longer distances to access water, placing them at heightened risk of gender-based violence. Agro-pastoral livelihood zones is well below normal levels, resulting in low yields for boreholes and shallow wells, leaving people and the livestock that they depend on for their livelihood without access to clean and adequate water. The absence of adequate water has specific consequences for women and girls of childbearing age, whose menstrual hygiene needs are often deprioritized when families do not even have enough water for cooking and drinking.

The water crisis has also caused children to drop out of school, heightened the risk of maternal mortality and increased the prevalence of communicable diseases. Due to the lack of water at schools and the burden placed on children to fetch water, school dropout rates have soared across all ASAL counties. In some instances, healthcare facilities have asked pregnant women to bring their own water for giving birth at the facility and there are reports of increased deaths during delivery due to lack of access to clean water . The reduction in water quantity and quality is also contributing to the spread of waterborne disease outbreaks. Diseases such as cholera are rapidly spreading in the water scarce counties, especially Garissa, where there is a large influx of refugees from Ethiopia and Somalia. At the same time, people’s access to healthcare has significantly diminished, including due to the vast distances they are now having to travel to access food, water and forage for their livestock.

Many women have sacrificed their own well-being and nutrition to care for their families during the drought, while the drought has further entrenched gender roles, with increased burdens and risk of gender-based violence, according to rapid assessment of the gendered impacts of drought on households living in the ASALs. Faced with impossible choices, women have foregone their own needs—including for menstrual hygiene and reproductive healthcare—and have often prioritized their family receiving meals, over themselves. Some women and girls have also resorted to transactional sex to help their families survive the drought. Girls have been pulled out of school for early marriage, and families have been separated as men and boys seek forage and food for livestock. Older people—especially in pastoralist communities—are also facing unique consequences due to the drought. Their role in caring for children has increased, as younger and more able-bodied adults have travelled further afield in search of forage and food or migrated to urban areas in search of work.

The drought has exacerbated inter-communal violence, with incidences of insecurity and resource-based conflicts persisting across the ASAL region. Resource-based conflicts were reported in most ASAL counties, instigated by competition for scarce pasture and water resources coupled with long-standing rivalries between communities and resulting in injuries, loss of lives and stock thefts.

In the ASAL region, there are growing reports of people fleeing their rural homes and arriving into urban and peri-urban areas— including the sides of major roads—in search of new livelihoods and assistance. In Garissa County alone, 77 per cent of settlements reported arrivals of people from other settlements in search of goods and services to cope with the drought, amounting to over 205,000 people, according to IOM DTM’s report on human mobility.

Meanwhile, an estimated 45,000 asylum seekers arrived in Kenya from neighbouring Somalia in 2022, according to UNHCR. In 2022, UNHCR conducted a profiling exercise for mainly Somali new arrivals in Dadaab refugee camp during which 46 per cent of those interviewed cited the drought as one of the reasons for their flight.

In Kakuma, almost 20 per cent of new arrivals cited food insecurity, hunger, and drought as the reasons for a flight from their countries of origin.

Search the site

Links to social media channels

Enhancing resiliency to drought in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands

The case study Enhancing resiliency to drought in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands provides an overview of a pilot project undertaken in Kenya between 2005 and 2010 that linked together the provision of downscaled weather forecasts, improved agricultural practices, increased access to reliable water sources and the promotion of a revolving microcredit system for women's self-help groups.

Implemented by the Nairobi-based Centre for Science and Technology Innovations in collaboration with the Arid Lands Resource Management Project, the pilot project responded to the fact that drought associated with climate change and climate variability have become more pronounced in Kenya in recent years, adversely affecting the lives and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in its arid and semi-arid lands.

The case study is one of six produced by the Canadian Coalition on Climate Change and Development (C4D) in 2010, along with an accompanying synopsis of lessons learned, as part of its Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Canadian NGOs initiative. Drawing directly from the experience of Canadian NGOs and their partners in the global South, the case studies highlight climate change impacts and how local communities are reducing their vulnerability to changing conditions. Financial support for this initiative was provided by the International Development Research Centre.

In 2013 an epilogue to this case study was prepared by Cynthia Awuor. The epilogue highlights how activities that build resilience to climate change at the field level continued after the ACCESA pilot project ended in 2010. It was one of 10 new and updated case studies prepared by C4D in partnership with Canadian NGOs.

The Kenya case study profiles one of three pilot projects being implemented as part of the regional project, Integrating Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change into Sustainable Development Policy Planning and Implementation in Eastern and Southern Africa (ACCESA). This project was implemented by the International Institute for Sustainable Development on behalf of the United Nations Environment Programme. Funding for this project was provided by the Global Environment Facility and the governments of the Netherlands and Norway, and supported by in-kind contributions from the governments of Germany and Kenya. Further information is available here .

Participating experts

Jo-ellen parry.

Deputy Director, Resilience

Guide details

You might also be interested in, envisioning resilience: women's voices on climate change in ghana and kenya.

As countries advance their National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, the need for meaningful participation by people on the frontlines of climate change becomes increasingly clear.

July 18, 2023

Multilateral Development Bank Efforts to Mainstream Climate Adaptation

The paper explores the progress of four MDBs in mainstreaming climate adaptation in their developing country portfolios, specifically looking at experiences in Kenya, Nepal, and Peru.

March 21, 2023

Growing Tea Sustainably: Examples from Kenya, India, and Sri Lanka

From climate change impacts to price fluctuations, producing tea can be a volatile business. Here's how some of the world’s major tea-producing countries are making the industry more stable—and sustainable.

July 26, 2021

Scientists Improving Health of African Great Lakes

Scientists and researchers from across North America and Africa will be coming together to tackle some of the most pressing issues facing the African Great Lakes.

Press release

September 15, 2020

Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer.

To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds to  upgrade your browser .

Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link.

• We're Hiring!
• Help Center

Drought Risk and Vulnerability Assessment; a Case Study of Baringo County, Kenya

This study was undertaken in arid and semi arid county of Baringo which is prone to perennial droughts, with the majority of its population affected by the recurrent droughts and high poverty levels. The primary objective of this research is to assess population vulnerability, drought risk and rainfall performance during the drought period. The drought assessment was based on known drought periods, of 2009. Meteorological validation using NOAA-AVRHR data was used to determine the rainfall variation over the long term average. The data were obtained from NOAAAdvanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), was processed with ESRI-GIS software. The population vulnerability was processed using poverty rates, population density and livelihoods. An analytical hierarchy processcriterion was used in determining vulnerability using the three socioeconomic variables. The drought assessment was determined using the normalized difference drought Index (NDDI) a combination of the normal...

Related Papers

Kipterer J Kapoi

This study was undertaken in arid and semi-arid county of Baringo which is prone to perennial droughts, with the majority of its population affected by the recurrent. The primary objective of this research is to assess population vulnerability to potential drought risk. The vulnerability assessment was based on 2009 socioeconomic data variables. The population vulnerability was processed using poverty rates, population density, and livelihoods. An analytical hierarchy process criterion was used in determining vulnerability using the three socioeconomic variables. The vulnerability analysis results indicate that, 27.87% of the marginal livelihood and 25.62% pastoral livelihood are highly vulnerable. In conclusion, marginal, pastoral, and agro-pastoral livelihoods are highly vulnerable to drought hazard with its population capacities undermined by high poverty rates; in this respect government should promote poverty reduction projects and improved markets infrastructure and access.

The International Journal of Science & Technoledge

Boniface Oindo

Kabucwa Mureithi

Drought ranks as the most significant hazard affecting more people than any other and resulting to losses of billions of dollars throughout the world. For the period 1889- 2010, Kenya had 11 drought events affecting 39.15million people and resulting to the death of 196 persons. Arid and Semiarid Lands comprise about 80% of the Kenyan land mass and are the most affected by drought. Turkana County is classified as 100% Arid and Semiarid Lands. Drought occurrence in the county has increased from one major drought in a decade before 1990 to one in every three years and localized drought every season. Ninety percent of the income for the over 850,000 county inhabitants originate from livestock keeping and livestock support activities making it highly vulnerable to drought. The purpose of the research was to investigate and rank the root causes of drought vulnerability and study the effectiveness of management strategies on drought vulnerability reduction in Turkana County. The study was carried out for eight months and applied an exploratory survey design from January to August 2010. Pilot study was carried out at Kalobeyei village in Oropoi division. The main study was done in two villages; Napopongoit in Mogilla sub location of Lokichogio division and Lopur in Lopusikii sub location of Kakuma division. Sampling was done through purposive and snow ball techniques. Data collection was done through interviewing and observation while instruments used included schedules for household interviews, checklists for Participatory vulnerability analysis, focus group discussions and key informants interviews. The study was based on the Pressure and Release model. The research findings indicates that political factors operating at household, community , regional and national levels were the main causes of drought vulnerability in the County, followed by social factors, environmental factors, economic and technological factors in that order. The study also found little investment in vulnerability management at household and community levels. The findings of the study recommend; firstly, the formulation of a drought management framework for the county, secondly; that the development strategies aimed at drought vulnerability management should include socio- political considerations as a priority.

International Journal of Engineering Research and Technology (IJERT)

IJERT Journal

https://www.ijert.org/drought-indices-assessment-for-sustainable-water-resources-management-a-case-review-for-upper-tana-river-basin-kenya https://www.ijert.org/research/drought-indices-assessment-for-sustainable-water-resources-management-a-case-review-for-upper-tana-river-basin-kenya-IJERTV3IS100155.pdf Drought indices as means of assessing drought which is a stochastic natural disaster influencing socioeconomic development in the upper Tana River basin are presented. Drought is a condition on land or river basin with intense and or persistence below average precipitation and water scarcity. Drought phenomenon may be characterized in terms of its severity, intensity, duration and magnitude. For the purpose of prospective planning and management of drought, its characterization, analysis of drought severity, impacts and risk assessment is vital. Development and application of drought indices have been used to characterize drought at varying spatial and temporal scales for regional, national and river basin levels. This article review drought indices and explores their applicability in different time scales of drought for 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 months lead times. A reliable index must be able to quantify drought severity, detect drought beginning and end times for early warning systems, monitoring and prospective water resources planning. Since numerous drought indices have been developed over the years, it is critical to provide their detailed analysis review, indicate their differences and applications. A research direction for drought assessment using indices in upper Tana River basin for water resources management is proposed.

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

Godfrey Makokha

The study focused on developing a novel socio-economic drought index (SeDI) for monitoring the severity of drought in a dry basin ecosystem dominated by nomadic pastoralists. The study utilized the domestic water deficit index, bareness index, normalized difference vegetation index, and water accessibility index as the input variables. An ensembled stochastic framework that coupled the 3D Euclidean feature space algorithm, least-squares adjustment, and iteration was used to derive the new SeDI. This approach minimized the uncertainties propagated by the stochastic nature of the input variables that has been a major bottleneck exhibited by the existing models. The regression analyses between the simulated SeDI and the observed ground river discharge registered a correlation coefficient ( r ) of −0.84 and a p -value of 0.02, while the correlation between the Hull’s score–derived SeDI and ground river discharge registered a correlation coefficient ( r ) of −0.75 and a p -value of 0.05....

Julius Huho

Research on humanities and social sciences

Prof. Stanley Omuterema

Drought events remain a major threat to lives and livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to the high exposure and vulnerability of populations. In the last three decades, Kenya experienced high frequency of drought events. The frequency of drought is projected to increase in the future more so due to anthropogenic climate change whose impacts include erratic seasonal rainfall and increased frequency of extreme rainfall events such as drought. Droughts present extreme conditions of water scarcity which have adverse effects on the physical environment and water resource systems particularly for arid and semi arid regions. The design and implementation of drought mitigation and response strategies requires an understanding of the nature and impacts of drought. Previous mitigation measures have been done randomly without establishing the nature of drought , reason as to why drought in Makueni County whether major or minor has severe impacts on this community.Makueni County of, Ke...

Food Science and Quality Management

Andrew Wamukota

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Luis Garrote

RELATED PAPERS

Hugo Miguel Carriço

Naveen Kr Bhardwaj

Botánica Complutensis

Marta Miguel Garzon

Histoire Urbaine

Delphine Piétu

REVISTA ESPAÑOLA DE COMUNICACIÓN EN SALUD

ÁNGEL IBÁÑEZ PEIRÓ

Silvia Radice

Journal of research in medical sciences : the official journal of Isfahan University of Medical Sciences

Mehmet E Demir

BMC Evolutionary Biology

Gennady Baryshnikov

Journal of Higher Education Theory and Practice

Gina Londino-Smolar

Orphanet Journal of Rare Diseases

Debbie HICKS

Turkish Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences

Gülbin Özçelikay

Melanie Walker

Ayse Seyhan

International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering (IJRTE)

Mukesh Kirar

International Journal of Theoretical Physics

Tommaso Toffoli

BIO-PROTOCOL

Loke Tim Khaw

Web Revista SOCIODIALETO

Loremi Loregian Penkal

Pablo Rebagliati

Boundary-Layer Meteorology

International Journal of Fracture

Zafer Gurdal

International journal of second and foreign language education

shahram afraz

Maria Mihalache

UCLA文凭证书 加州大学洛杉矶分校文凭证书 klhjkgh

办理圣玛丽大学毕业证书文凭学位证书 加拿大大学文凭学历认证

买堪培拉大学毕业证书成绩单 办理澳洲UC文凭学位证书

RELATED TOPICS

•   We're Hiring!
•   Help Center
• Find new research papers in:
• Health Sciences
• Earth Sciences
• Cognitive Science
• Mathematics
• Computer Science
• Academia ©2024

Advertisement

Developing a new socio-economic drought index for monitoring drought proliferation: a case study of Upper Ewaso Ngiro River Basin in Kenya

• Published: 24 March 2021
• Volume 193 , article number  213 , ( 2021 )

Cite this article

• Duncan Maina Kimwatu   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5486-3405 1 ,
• Charles Ndegwa Mundia 1 &
• Godfrey Ouma Makokha 2  

621 Accesses

13 Citations

Explore all metrics

The study focused on developing a novel socio-economic drought index (SeDI) for monitoring the severity of drought in a dry basin ecosystem dominated by nomadic pastoralists. The study utilized the domestic water deficit index, bareness index, normalized difference vegetation index, and water accessibility index as the input variables. An ensembled stochastic framework that coupled the 3D Euclidean feature space algorithm, least-squares adjustment, and iteration was used to derive the new SeDI. This approach minimized the uncertainties propagated by the stochastic nature of the input variables that has been a major bottleneck exhibited by the existing models. The regression analyses between the simulated SeDI and the observed ground river discharge registered a correlation coefficient ( r ) of −0.84 and a p -value of 0.02, while the correlation between the Hull’s score–derived SeDI and ground river discharge registered a correlation coefficient ( r ) of −0.75 and a p -value of 0.05. The assessment revealed that the newly derived SeDI was more sensitive to the river discharge than the Hull’s score–derived SeDI. The SeDI’s classification results for the period between 1986 and 2018 revealed that only January 2009 manifested a significant slight severity level covering about 12.4% of the basin. Additionally, the results indicated that the basin exhibited a moderate severity level ranging between 85 and 96%, a severe level ranging between 2.2 and 13.3%, and an extreme level ranging between 0.73 and 1.17%. The derived SeDI would serve as an early warning tool necessary for increasing the resilience to climate-related risks and offer support in reducing the loss of life and livelihood.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price includes VAT (Russian Federation)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Rent this article via DeepDyve

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Identification of long-term annual pattern of meteorological drought based on spatiotemporal methods: evaluation of different geostatistical approaches, drought prediction and sustainable development of the ecological environment.

Spatiotemporal meteorological drought assessment in a humid Mediterranean region: case study of the Oued Sebaou basin (northern central Algeria)

Alamgir, M., Khan, N., Shahid, S., Yaseen, Z. M., Dewan, A., Hassan, Q., & Rasheed, B. (2020). Evaluating severity-area-frequency (SAF) of seasonal droughts in Bangladesh under climate changes scenarios .  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01768-2

Book   Google Scholar  

Ayeni, O. O. (2001). "Statistical adjustment and analysis of data." A manual in the Department of Surveying and Geoinformatics, Faculty of Engineering, University of Lagos, Nigeria.

Balk, D. L., Deichmann, U., Yetman, G., Pozzi, F., &  Nelson, R. (2006) Determining global population distribution: Methods, application and data. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-308X(05)62004-0

Bayissa, Y. A., Tsegaye, T., Mark, S., Brian, W., Calvin, P., John, S., & Schalk, V. K. (2018). Developing a satellite-based combined drought indicator to monitor agricultural drought: A case study of Ethiopia. GIScience and Remote Sensing . https://doi.org/10.1080/15481603.2018.1552508

Article   Google Scholar  

Chen, S., Wen, Z., Jiang, H., Zhao, Q., Zhang, X., & Chen, Y. (2015). Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index estimation of soil moisture under different tree species. 11401–11417. https://doi.org/10.3390/su70911401

Dalezios, N., Tarquis, A., & Eslamian, S. (2017). Droughts: Environmental hazards methodologies for risk assessment and management. Editor: Dalezios, NR. International Water Association Publishing, London, UK, 177–210.

Dumitrascu, M., Mocanu, I., Mitric, B., Dragot, C., Grigorescu, I., & Dumitric, C. (2017). The assessment of socio-economic vulnerability to drought in Southern Romania. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (Oltenia Plain). 27 (September 2017), 142–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.049

Evans, M., Hastings, N., & Peacock, B. (2000). Statistical distributions (3rd ed.). Wiley.

Google Scholar  

Gichuki, F.N. (2004). Managing the externalities of declining dry season river flow: A case study from the Ewaso Ngiro North River Basin, Kenya. Water Resources Research, 40 (8).

Gowen, K. M., & de Smet, T. (2020). Testing least cost path (LCP) models for travel time and kilocalorie expenditure: Implications for landscape genomics. PLoS One, 15 (9), e0239387. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0239387

Article   CAS   Google Scholar  

Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Wall, N., & Widhalm, M. (2011). The Lincoln declaration on drought indices: Universal meteorological drought index recommended. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92 (4), 485–488.

Hongmei, Z., & Xiaoling, C. (2005). Use of normalized difference bareness index in quickly mapping bare areas from TM/ETM+. Proceedings. 2005 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium , 2005. IGARSS '05., 3, 1666–1668. https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS.2005.1526319

Huffel, S. V., & Vandewalle, J. (1991). The total least squares problem: Computation aspects and analysis (1st ed.). SIAM.

Keyantash, J.A., & Dracup, J.A. (2004). An aggregate drought index: Assessing drought severity based on fluctuations in the hydrologic cycle and surface water storage. Water Resources Research 40: (W09304). https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002610

Koech, G., Makokha, G. O., & Mundia, C. N. (2019). Climate change vulnerability assessment using a GIS modelling approach in ASAL ecosystem: A case study of Upper Ewaso Nyiro basin, Kenya. Journal of modelling Earth Systems and Environment . https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00695-8

Lin, Q., Wu, Z., Singh, V. P., Sadeghi, S. H., He, H., & Lu, G. (2017). Correlation between hydrological drought, climatic factors, reservoir operation, and vegetation cover in the Xijiang Basin, South China. Journal of Hydrology, 549, 512–524.

Liu, S., Huang, S., Xie, Y., Wang, H., Huang, Q., Leng, G., et al. (2019). Spatial-temporal changes in vegetation cover in a typical semi-humid and semi-arid region in China: Changing patterns, causes and implications. Ecological Indicator, 98, 462–475.

Masih, I., Maskey, S., Mussá, F., & Trambauer, P. (2014). A review of droughts on the African continent: A geospatial and long-term perspective. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18 (9), 3635–3649.

McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., & Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology , Anaheim, CA, 179–184.

Mehran, A., Mazdiyasni, O., & AghaKouchak, A. (2015). A hybrid framework for assessing socio-economic drought: Linking climate variability, local resilience, and demand. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres  120(15):7520–7533. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023147

Mishra, A. K., & Singh, V. P. (2010). A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391, 202–216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012

Muriithi, F. K. (2016). Land use and land cover (LULC) changes in semi-arid sub-watersheds of Laikipia and Athi River basins, Kenya, as influenced by expanding intensive commercial horticulture. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 3, 73–88.

Mutiga, J. K., Mavengano, S. T., Zhongbo, S., Woldai, T., & Becht, R. (2010). Water allocation as a planning tool to minimize water use conflicts in the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro North Basin, Kenya. Water Resources Management, 24 (14), 3939–3959.

Ngigi, S. N. (2006). Hydrological impacts of land use changes on water resources management and socio-economic development of Upper Ewaso Ng’ iro River Basin in Kenya . UNESCO-IHE.

Omosa, E. K. (2005). The impacts of water conflicts on pastoral livelihoods. A case study of Wajir District in Kenya .

Ouko, J., Gachari, M. K., Sichangi, A. W., & Alegane, V. (2019). Geographic information system-based evaluation of spatial accessibility to maternal health facilities in Siaya County, Kenya. Journal of Geography and Environment , University of Southampton, UK. https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-5871.12339

Pickering, A. J., & Davis, J. (2011). Freshwater availability and water fetching distance affect child health in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. dx. https://doi.org/10.1021/es203177v

Rasul, K., Balzter, H., Ibrahim, G., & Hameed, H. (2018). Applying built-up and bare-soil indices from Landsat 8 to cities in dry climates. Journal of Land . https://doi.org/10.3390/land7030081

Shafer, B. A., & Dezman, I. E. (1982). Development of a Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) to assess the severity of drought conditions in snowpack runoff areas. Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, 50, 164–175.

Shi, H., Chen, J., Wang, K., & Niu, J. (2018). A new method and a new index for identifying socio-economic drought events under climate change. Science of Total Environment, 616–617 (2018), 363–375. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.321

Tan, M. L., Juneng, L., Fredolin, T., Samat, N., Chan, N. W., Yusop, Z., & Ngai, S. T. (2020). SouthEast Asia HydrO-meteorological droughT (SEA-HOT) framework. A case study in the Kelantan River Basin, Malaysia. Journal of Atmospheric Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105155

Tobler, W. (1993). Non-isotropic geographic modelling (pp. 93–101). National Center for Geographic Information and Analysis. Technical Report No.

Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Begueria, S., & Lopez-Moreno, J. I. (2010). A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming: the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index-SPEI. Journal of Climatology, 23 (7), 1696–1718.

Wang, Y. J., & Qin, D. H. (2017). Influence of climate change and human activity on water resources in arid region of Northwest China: An overview. Advances in Climate Change Research .

Willeke, M., & Hosking, J. (1994). The national drought atlas Institute for Water Resources rep. Army Corps Engineer in Fort Belvoir, 587.

Yeh, H. F., & Hsu, H. (2019). Stochastic Model for Drought Forecasting in the Southern Taiwan Basin. Water, 11, 2041. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11102041

Yu, H., Zhang, Q., Xu, C., Sun, P., & Hu, P. (2019). Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index. Model improvement and application. Journal of Environmental International.   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.104951

Zhao, M., Huang, S., Huang, Q., Wang, H., Leng, G., & Xie, Y. (2019). Assessing socio-economic drought evolution characteristics and their possible meteorological driving force. Journal of Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk. https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2018.1564706

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to USGS/Landsat and CHIRPS for providing data used for this study.

Author information

Authors and affiliations.

Geospatial Information Systems and Remote Sensing, Institute of Geomatics, Dedan Kimathi University of Technology, Nyeri, Kenya

Duncan Maina Kimwatu & Charles Ndegwa Mundia

School of Science and Informatics, Taita Taveta University, Voi, Kenya

Godfrey Ouma Makokha

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Duncan Maina Kimwatu .

Additional information

Publisher's note.

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary Information

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplementary file1 (DOCX 451 KB)

Rights and permissions.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Kimwatu, D.M., Mundia, C.N. & Makokha, G.O. Developing a new socio-economic drought index for monitoring drought proliferation: a case study of Upper Ewaso Ngiro River Basin in Kenya. Environ Monit Assess 193 , 213 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-08989-0

Download citation

Received : 27 September 2020

Accepted : 02 March 2021

Published : 24 March 2021

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-08989-0

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

• Environmental drought
• Socio-economic drought index
• Domestic water deficit index
• Bareness index
• Water accessibility index
• Stochastic nature
• Find a journal
• Publish with us
• Track your research

How climate change is turning camels into the new cows

The survivor species, having lost many of their cattle, traditional herders are trying out a milk-producing animal that is more resilient to climate change.

NTEPES, Kenya

The camels had thump-thumped for seven days across northern Kenya, ushered by police reservists, winding at last toward their destination: less a village than a dusty clearing in the scrub, a place where something big was happening. People had walked for miles to be there. Soon the governor pulled up in his SUV. Women danced, and an emcee raised his hands to the sky. When the crowd gathered around an enclosure holding the camels, one man said he was looking at “the future.”

The camels had arrived to replace the cows.

Samburu County’s governor says that the climate patterns have become “abnormal.” The reduction in rainfall is so obvious, he said, that anybody can see it. “You don’t need science machines here to measure that.”

Cows, here and across much of Africa, have been the most important animal for eons — the foundation of economies, diets, traditions.

But now grazable land is shrinking. Water sources are drying up. A three-year drought in the Horn of Africa that ended last year killed 80 percent of the cows in this part of Kenya and shattered the livelihoods of so many people.

In this region with the thinnest of margins, millions are being forced to adapt to climate change — including those who were now drawing numbers from a hat, each corresponding to one of the 77 camels that had just arrived in Samburu County.

“Your number?” a village chief, James Lelemusi, asked the first person to draw.

The regional government had purchased the camels from traders near the border with Somalia, at $600 per head. So far 4,000 camels, as part of that program, have been distributed across the lowlands of the county, speeding up a shift that had already been happening for decades across several other cattle-dependent parts of Africa. A handful of communities, particularly in Kenya and Ethiopia, are in various stages of the transition, according to academic studies.

The global camel population has doubled over the last 20 years, something the U.N. agency for agriculture and investment attributes partly to the animal’s suitability amid climate change. In times of hardship, camels produce more milk than cows.

Many cite an adage: The cow is the first animal to die in a drought; the camel is the last.

“If there was no climate change, we would not even bother to buy these camels,” said Jonathan Lati Lelelit, the governor of Samburu, a county about 240 miles north of Nairobi. “We have so many other things to do with the little money we have. But we have no option.”

Samburu County

Precipitation, March through Sept.

2022 vs. 1981-2021 avg.

200 millimeters

Authorities had selected the recipients, those crowding around the camels, on the condition that they use the animal for milk, not meat. They were also those judged by local officials to be the most in need. They had stories of near-total cattle losses, of walking miles to find water, of violent run-ins with a neighboring tribe as they strayed farther from their territory in search of grazing space for their faltering livestock.

Still, many said the plight of one person stood out: Dishon Leleina.

Leleina, 42, had been wealthy by the standards of this region before the drought. He had two wives and 10 kids, and had been surrounded by an abundance of cows for nearly as long as he could remember. He even sacrificed bulls — with a stab to the back of the head — on each of his wedding days.

But when one rainy season failed, then another, then another, his stock of 150 cows plummeted over several years as never before. A few dozen were raided by the bordering Pokot tribe. And more than a hundred withered away — going skinny in the midsection, swelling in other areas. Some would go to sleep at night and never wake up. Some would arrive at last at a water source, drink lustily and collapse to their death. Several times, including after losing his best milking cow, Leleina roared at the sky in fury. By the time the rains resumed last year, he had seven cows left.

“I had one status” before the drought, he said. “And now I have another.”

People walked for hours to attend the camel distribution, some putting on their best clothing.

What hadn’t changed was his daily routine; he moved in step with his livestock, often walking miles per day. But now he had cut back to one meal per day — as did many other pastoralists. He lost weight. Several times, he fainted. Even on the day of the camel distribution, as the event stretched into late afternoon, almost nobody was seen eating or drinking.

As the number drawing began, Leleina pressed into the crowd. An organizer with a sheet of paper recorded who would take which camel home. Some of the camels were big, some small, some muscular, many slender, and as soon as people pulled numbers — 73, 6, 27 — they darted off to find their animal in the crowd.

Then it was Leleina’s turn. He reached into the hat.

“Number 17,” he said.

He walked toward the camels, scrap of paper in hand, and tried to use his wooden staff to poke a few of the animals, which were bunched together, obscuring the numbers painted at the base of their necks. Leleina squinted into the sun. He went in another direction. He prodded a few more animals. And then he found her: a skinny camel with a medium build, a rich tuft of longer fur on its hump.

He gave her a pat.

It would be dark soon, and Leleina still needed to guide his new camel home — several miles through the powdery dirt and shrub land. But even in this harsh place, Camel 17 could manage to find a snack.

She darted over to an acacia tree, pulling flowers into her mouth, working her tongue around two-inch thorns.

An animal built for drought

The camel is sometimes described as an animal designed by committee, what with its hodgepodge of features —

the thin legs of a whippet,

the rippled midsection

of a horse,

the neck of a stunted giraffe.

the rippled midsection of a horse,

But among mammals, the camel is almost singularly equipped to handle extremes.

Camels can go two weeks without water, as opposed to a day or two for a cow. They can lose 30 percent of their body weight and survive, one of the highest thresholds for any large animal. Their body temperatures fluctuate in sync with daily climate patterns. When they pee, their urine trickles down their legs, keeping them cool. When they lie down, their leathery knees fold into pedestals that work to prop much of their undersides just above the ground, allowing cooling air to pass through.

One recently published paper, perhaps straying from science to reverence, called them a “miracle species.”

Milk is one of the biggest nutrition sources for people in Samburu. With camels, the hope is that people can still have milk during droughts.

And yet in much of Africa — for much of human history — their attributes haven’t been needed. For centuries, they’ve resided primarily in the driest outer ring of the continent, while cows — outnumbering camels in Africa 10 to 1 — reigned in the lush river plains, in the highlands. Kenya, where the landscape can turn from green to reddish and back in an hour’s drive, has long been a middle ground: a place where some tribes use camels and more use cows, with identities forming around that choice. Because of that, neighboring tribes see the consequences of using one animal vs. the other. That has seemingly transformed Samburu County — an area the size of New Jersey that is home to the Samburu tribe — into an experiment on how livestock fare, and how humans respond, in a warming climate.

The experiment started about a half-century ago, according to Louise Sperling, a scholar who conducted fieldwork in Samburu in the 1980s. The Samburu were among the most “specialized and successful” cattle-keepers in East Africa, she wrote in one account, but they were increasingly mixing with and marrying members of a nearby tribe, the Rendille — camel-keepers.

Over the subsequent decades, they also noticed changes in traditional weather patterns. Fewer rainy seasons. Less predictability. And most importantly: more frequent droughts.

Uptake was gradual. Cows still overwhelmingly outnumbered camels. And cows still defined the Samburu identity, used in celebrations or as dowries.

But then came the longest series of failed rainy seasons on record in the Horn of Africa.

The drought started in 2020 and held its grip for three years. An international team of scientists said a drought of this severity had been 100 times more likely because of climate change. In Samburu, the smell of rotting cattle carcasses spread across this county of roughly 310,000 people. Malnutrition spiked, including among children and the elderly. The Kenyan government and the World Food Program had to step in with aid.

And yet the level of need wasn’t equal.

Noompon Lenkamaldanyani, a single mother of four, lost 18 of her 20 cows and fell short on milk, but she noticed her camel-owning neighbors were willing to step in and offer help.

One county official calls cows a cultural “treasure.” But they are becoming rarer in the county’s lowlands.

Lekojde Loidongo said he and his family “didn’t suffer much,” as all 22 of their camels continued to produce milk.

Even Leleina, the new owner of Camel 17, said he noticed how the animals fared differently. He’d owned three camels before the drought hit. They all survived.

If he had any regrets, it was that he hadn’t moved earlier. His father, who died in 2021, had been an early adopter of camels.

“In the future,” Leleina said, echoing a conclusion shared by others, “I foresee having more camels than cows.”

Because of these realizations, there has been very little backlash to the government’s camel program, which started eight years ago. Some are also obtaining their own camels by trading cattle at markets. Pastoralists — people who move with their livestock herds — are often described as among the most vulnerable people in the world to climate change, and their fortunes can swing based on the decisions they make about which animals to keep.

A 2022 research paper published in Nature Food, analyzing a huge belt of land across northern sub-Saharan Africa, noted increased heat stress and reduced water availability in some areas and said milk production would benefit from a higher proportion of camels, as well as goats, which are also more climate-resilient than cows. Camel milk is a comparable substitute for cow’s milk. It tends to be lower in fat and higher in certain minerals, said Anne Mottet, the lead livestock specialist at the International Fund for Agricultural Development. Many say it has a saltier taste.

Cow vs. camel milk production impacts

Feed needed (kg)*

Water needed (kg)*

CO2 emissions (kg)*

*for producing one metric ton of milk

*to produce one metric ton of milk

“We’re just following the trends of the drought,” said Lepason Lenanguram, another camel recipient in Samburu. “People want camels now. The culture is changing.”

The Samburu governor said he believes “totally” that shifting to the camel is the right move. He noted that Samburu — with large swaths far removed from the electrical grid and without running water — had contributed relatively little to global greenhouse gas emissions. By far the greatest source of emissions in rural areas like Samburu is methane, a byproduct of the cow’s complex digestive process. Camels emit far less methane.

The program gives away only one camel per person. But it can still build up peace of mind, said the director of the governor’s press service, Jeff Lekupe, who was on-site when the camels were distributed. With even one camel, a family has better chances of having milk during a drought. And then there is a “ripple effect,” he said. The camel gives birth. The population grows.

“So that next time,” he said, “the need for the WFP will be minimal.”

Getting acclimated to Camel 17

For Leleina, Camel 17 — a female — symbolized the start of a rebuild, but it didn’t begin well. Arriving at her new home — a circular property, ringed by branches and thorns, a mile from the closest unpaved road — the animal quickly started tussling with one of the three other camels. They bit one another. They made noises. They locked necks, and they only stopped when Leleina roped the legs of the other camel as a way to keep her from moving.

That night, Leleina put a mat on the floor outside his hut and felt too nervous to go to sleep. He’d heard stories about other camels darting off — something that almost never happened with a cow — or feeling uneasy in new surroundings; a neighbor’s camel had escaped and been mauled by a lion. So Leleina trained his eyes on Camel 17 for hour after hour as she brayed.

Eventually the sun rose. Camel 17 was still there.

Samburu had to depend on food aid during the most recent drought. Officials hope that in the next drought that won’t be necessary.

“The camel might have been thinking about where it came from,” Leleina said.

In the morning, more at ease, he let the newest addition to his herd go off. She needed to eat. The job of following her fell to Leleina’s 9-year-old daughter, and after the camel had been out for a while, Leleina decided to join her. So he set off in the direction of a red-rock table mountain, crunching through the scrub, occasionally coming upon bones, and moving closer to an area that he knew had foliage for camels and was free of predators. He heard nothing for five minutes, then 10, and then shouted his daughter’s name.

“Nashenjo,” he shouted.

Then a minute later:

“Nashenjo!”

He heard an animal noise.

“The camels are not far from here,” he said.

In a circle of trees, he saw not only Camel 17, but a half-dozen other camels — craning their necks from branch to branch. A few of the camels were his. Others belonged to a neighbor. It was a critical mass of camels in a place that had once belonged almost entirely to cattle, and the ranks only figured to grow. A day earlier, at the same time of the distribution, a neighbor’s camel had gone into labor. Leleina’s neighbors had crouched at the camel’s side, pulling out the healthy baby by the legs.

Leleina sat down at the base of a tree and watched the animals eat. Camel 17 was still skinny, but that was understandable, he said. She needed time to recover. Her trip to get here had been 100-odd miles, seven days, three stops for water, and even in that journey he saw why she was suited for her new home.

“She’s a survivor,” he said.

About this story

Design, development and illustrations by Hailey Haymond. Map by Naema Ahmed. Editing by Stuart Leavenworth, Joe Moore, Sandra M. Stevenson and Alice Li. Copy editing by Christopher Rickett.

Precipitation data from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data. Milk production data from "A shift from cattle to camel and goat farming can sustain milk production with lower inputs and emissions in north sub-Saharan Africa’s drylands," Nature Food, 2022. Figures reflect average values for cattle and camels.

Researching the spread of drought and its potential negative impacts

I t is important for water management to understand how drought spreads. In a new study, researchers from the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF show that in every third case, atmospheric drought is followed by low water levels. More rarely does drought have a negative impact on groundwater.

With climate change, extreme climate events such as longer dry spells are becoming more frequent. This can have a negative impact on water management, for example in agriculture. If a large area suffers from drought, it becomes difficult to transport water for irrigation from one area to another.

Therefore, it is important to understand how drought simultaneously affects river levels and groundwater levels over large areas. Researchers at the SLF have now analyzed data from 70 river catchment areas in Central Europe to investigate how likely it is that different areas will be affected by drought at the same time. The study is published in Geophysical Research Letters .

Understanding spatial distribution

In their study, the researchers investigated the question of whether a precipitation deficit leads to a runoff deficit in the rivers and ultimately to a groundwater deficit. Their focus was on the spatial extent.

"We found that 30 percent of precipitation deficits lead to low water levels, which has a negative impact on groundwater in 40 percent of cases," says Manuela Brunner, author of the study.

"I had assumed that the longer a drought lasts, the more widespread it becomes. But this is not the case with groundwater," she explains. While the authors show that a runoff deficit is more widespread than the precipitation deficit causing it, the spatial extent of the groundwater deficit in turn decreases in comparison to the spread of the runoff deficit.

Soil layers influence the runoff

This discrepancy surprised the researchers, but can be explained by the different soil structures: porous material allows the water to seep away better and faster than loamy soil, for example. This is why the spread of the deficit can locally be delayed.

In addition, the aquifer can store a lot of water. Depending on the area, drought has no effect or only a very delayed effect on groundwater levels. "These are good news for irrigation," comments Manuela Brunner. Even if the rivers have dried up, neighboring groundwater reservoirs may still be partially filled.

The study also shows how challenging it is to predict the course of droughts due to the complexity of the water cycle. "The multitude of influencing factors makes it difficult to accurately predict whether a prolonged dry period will lead to dried-up rivers or a groundwater shortage," says the scientist.

More information: Manuela I. Brunner et al, Drought Spatial Extent and Dependence Increase During Drought Propagation From the Atmosphere to the Hydrosphere, Geophysical Research Letters (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2023GL107918

Provided by Eidgenössische Forschungsanstalt für Wald, Schnee und Landschaft WSL

In Pictures

Deadly floods wreak havoc in Kenya’s capital

East africa has been lashed by relentless downpours in recent weeks, as el nino exacerbates the seasonal rainfall..

Storms and flash floods turned roads into gushing rivers and swamped homes with waist-high muddy water across the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, killing at least 10 people.

The East Africa region has been lashed by relentless downpours in recent weeks, as the El Nino weather pattern exacerbates the seasonal rainfall.

Across Nairobi, vehicles were stranded in the deluge and people waded through floodwaters in slum areas to reach safety.

According to the Nairobi county governor’s office, an estimated 60,000 people, mostly women and children, have been “severely affected” by the floods.

The Kenya Meteorological Department warned that “heavy to very heavy” rainfall was forecast in various parts of the country until May.

In one incident on Wednesday, police fired tear gas to disperse angry residents who had blocked a main highway with long queues of cars calling for government action over the floods.

Kenya Railways announced it was temporarily suspending commuter train services, while the roads authority said four roads in the capital had been partly closed.

Homes were engulfed in the sprawling Nairobi slum of Mathare, where residents took to rooftops to save their lives and belongings.

The Red Cross said the Athi River, the second longest in Kenya that runs south of Nairobi to the Indian Ocean, had burst its banks, blocking roads and leaving residents stranded.

In central Nairobi, where many government offices and the parliament are based, a main avenue was blocked by fallen trees.

Elsewhere in the region, nearly 100,000 people have been displaced in Burundi, while at least 58 people have died in Tanzania and several thousand made homeless.

El Nino often has devastating consequences in East Africa, a region already hit by repeated climate shocks.