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Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis

• Original Paper
• Published: 06 September 2014
• Volume 75 , pages 1619–1647, ( 2015 )

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• Khandker Masuma Tasnim 1 ,
• Tomoya Shibayama 1 ,
• Miguel Esteban 2 ,
• Hiroshi Takagi 3 ,
• Koichiro Ohira 4 &
• Ryota Nakamura 1  

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Storm surges are one of the most important risks to coastal communities around the Bay of Bengal, and it is feared that the threat they pose will increase with climate change in the future. To understand the threats that these events pose, a summary of the field surveys performed in Yangon River Basin after cyclone Nargis in Myanmar in 2008 is presented. Though due to government restrictions survey activities were limited to the area near Yangon city, it was found out that the tide due to the storm surge was probably between 3 and 4 m high and travelled around 50 km upstream of the river mouth of Yangon River. Cyclone Nargis could be accurately reproduced using a numerical model that integrated weather, wave, coastal ocean models, and tide prediction system. The application of such an integrated model is relatively new for storm surge simulation and has never been used for the Bay of Bengal storms. The model was then used to also simulate future cyclones over the Bay of Bengal considering a future climate change scenario.

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Acknowledgments

The present work was supported by the Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) No. 22404011 from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) and Strategic Research Foundation Grant-aided Project for Private Universities from Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology. The authors would like to express their gratitude to the anonymous comments of various reviewers (and especially reviewer #2), whose suggestions for improvements helped the authors rethink various parts of the model and greatly improve the final results of this paper.

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Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Waseda University, Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8555, Japan

Khandker Masuma Tasnim, Tomoya Shibayama & Ryota Nakamura

Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba, Japan

Miguel Esteban

Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan

Hiroshi Takagi

Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc., Nagoya, Japan

Koichiro Ohira

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Correspondence to Khandker Masuma Tasnim .

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Tasnim, K.M., Shibayama, T., Esteban, M. et al. Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis. Nat Hazards 75 , 1619–1647 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1387-x

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Received : 30 October 2013

Accepted : 09 August 2014

Published : 06 September 2014

Issue Date : January 2015

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1387-x

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Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis

2014, Natural Hazards

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Article Contents

• 1 Introduction
• 2 Humanitarian Intervention and the Responsibility to Protect in International Law
• 3 Could Military Intervention Have Been Justified as a Response to Cyclone Nargis?
• 4 Conclusion
• < Previous

The Responsibility to Protect the Survivors of Natural Disaster: Cyclone Nargis, a Case Study

• Article contents
• Figures & tables
• Supplementary Data

Rebecca Barber, The Responsibility to Protect the Survivors of Natural Disaster: Cyclone Nargis, a Case Study, Journal of Conflict and Security Law , Volume 14, Issue 1, Spring 2009, Pages 3–34, https://doi.org/10.1093/jcsl/krn026

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Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar on 2 and 3 May 2008, devastating the Irrawaddy Delta, affecting 2.4 million people and leaving an estimated 130,000 people dead or missing. In the weeks following the disaster, in the face of enormous humanitarian needs, the government of Myanmar imposed significant restrictions on the delivery of humanitarian aid. The restrictions imposed, and the frustration felt by the international community, led to intense debate regarding the potential application of the ‘responsibility to protect’, and to suggestions that the legal doctrine could be invoked to justify military intervention for the purpose of delivering humanitarian aid to the survivors of the cyclone.

Using Cyclone Nargis as a case study, this article examines the meaning of ‘responsibility to protect’ in the aftermath of natural disaster. The status of humanitarian intervention and the ‘responsibility to protect’ in customary international law is discussed, followed by a consideration of whether the ‘responsibility to protect’ could have been invoked in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis as a justification for military intervention. This article concludes that while the restrictions imposed by the government of Myanmar fell short of what would be required to justify military intervention, it is possible to envisage situations where, in the aftermath of natural disaster, a government's refusal to allow access to survivors might be so complete, and the humanitarian needs so immense, that the use of force may be warranted.

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