climate change thesis topics

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Climate Change Topics for Short Essays

Perhaps, your educator has asked you to write a short essay on climate change. Maybe you’re yet to decide what to write about because every topic you think about seems to have been written about. In that case, use this list of climate change topics for inspiration. You can write about one of these topics or develop it to make it more unique.

How climate change is responsible for the disappearing rainforest
The effects of global warming on air quality within the urban areas
Global warming and greenhouse emissions- Possible health risks
Is climate change responsible for irregular weather patterns?
How has climate change affected the food chain?
The negative effects of climate change on human wellbeing
How global warming affects agriculture
How climate change works
Why is climate change dangerous to human health?
How to minimize global warming effects on human health
How global warming affects the healthcare
Effects of climate change of life quality in rural and urban areas
How warmer temperatures support allergy-related illnesses
How climate change is a risk to life on earth
How climate change and natural disasters correlate
How climate change affects the population of the earth
How climate change relates to global warming
How global warming has caused extreme heating in most urban areas
How wildfires relate to climate change
How ocean acidification and climate change affect the world’s habitat

These climate change essay topics cover different aspects of human activities and their effects on the earth’s ecosystem. As such, writing a research paper or essay on any of these topics requires extensive research and analysis of information. That’s the only way you can come up with a solid paper that will impress the educator to award you the top grade.

Climate Change Issues that Make for Good Topics

Maybe you want to research issues that relate to climate change. Most people may have not considered such issues but they are worthy of climate change debate topics. In that case, consider these issues when choosing your climate topics for papers and essays.

Climate change and threat to natural biodiversity are equally important
Climate change in Miami and Saudi Arabia- How the effects compare
Climate change as a human activity’s effect on the environment
Preventing climate change by protecting forests
Climate change in China- How the country has declined to head to the global call about saving Mother Nature
Common causes of climate change
Common effects of climate change
The definition of climate change
What is anthropogenic climate change
Describe climate change
What drives climate change?
Renewable energy sources and climate change
Human and economics induced climate change
Climate change biology
Climate change and business
Science, Spin, and climate change
Climate change- How global warming affects populations
Climate change and social concepts
Extreme weather and climate change- How they relate
Global warming as a complex issue in climate change

These are great climate change topics for research papers and essays. However, writing about these topics requires extensive research. You should also be ready to spend energy and time finding relevant and latest sources of information before you write about these topics.

Interesting Climate Change Topics for Papers and Essays

Perhaps, you want to write an essay or paper about something interesting. In that case, consider this list of interesting climate change research paper topics.

Climate change across the globe- What experts say
Development, climate change, and disaster reduction
Critical review- Climate change and agriculture
Schools should include climate change as a subject in geography courses
Consumption and climate change- How the wind blows in Indiana
How the United Nations responds to climate change
Snowpack and climate change
How climate change threatens global security
The effects of climate change on coastal areas’ tourism
How climate change relates to Queensland Australia’s floods
How climate change affects the tourism and hospitality industry
Possible strategies for addressing the effects of climate change on urban areas
How climate change affects indigenous people
How to avoid the threats of climate change
How climate change affects coral triangle turtles
Climate change drivers in the Asian countries
Economic discourse analysis methodology in climate change
How climate change affects New Hampshire businesses
How climate change affects the life of an individual
The economic cost of the effects of climate change

These are fantastic climate change paper topics to explore. Nevertheless, you must be ready to research your topic extensively before you start writing your academic paper or essay.

Major Topics on Climate Change for Academic Writing

Perhaps, you’re looking for topics related to climate change that you write major papers about. In that case, you should consider these global climate change topics.

Early science on climate change
How the world can manage the effects of climate change
Environmental issues relating to climate change
Views comparison about the climate change problem
Asset-based community development and climate change
Experts’ evaluation of climate change
How science affects climate change
How climate change affects the ocean life
Scotland’s vulnerability to climate change
How energy conservation can solve the climate change problem
How climate change affects the world economy
International collaboration and climate change
International relations view on climate change
How transportation affects climate change
Climate change and technology
Climate change policies and human rights
Climate change from an anthropological perspective
Climate change as an international security issue
Role of the United Nations in addressing climate change
Climate change and pollution

This category has some of the best climate change thesis topics. That’s because most people will be interested in reading papers on such topics due to their global perspectives. Nevertheless, you should prepare to spend a significant amount of time researching and writing about any of these topics on climate change.

Climate Change Topics for Presentation

Perhaps, you want to write papers on topics related to climate change for presentation purposes. In that case, you need topics that most people can resonate with. Here is a list of topics about climate change that will interest most people.

How can humans stop global warming in the next ten years
Could humans have stopped global warming a decade ago?
How has the environment changed over the years and how has this change caused global warming?
How did the Obama administration try to limit climate change?
What is the influence of chemical engineering on global warming?
How is urbanization connected to climate change?
Theories that explain why some nations ignore climate change
How global warming affects the rising sea levels
How anthropogenic and natural climate change differ
How the war against terrorism differs from the war on climate change
How atmospheric change influences global climate change
Negative effects of global climate change on Minnesota
The greenhouse effect and ozone depletion
How greenhouse affects the earth’s environment
How can individuals reduce the emissions of greenhouse gasses
How climate change will affect humans in their lifetime
What are the social, physical, and economic effects of climate change
Problems and solutions to climate change on the Pacific Ocean
How climate change relates to species’ extinction
How the phenomenon of denying climate change affects animals

This list prepared by our research helpers has some of the best essay topics on climate change. Pick one of these ideas, research it, and then compose a winning paper.

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The Top 10 Most Interesting Climate Change Research Topics

Finishing your environmental science degree may require you to write about climate change research topics. For example, students pursuing a career as environmental scientists may focus their research on environmental-climate sensitivity or those studying to become conservation scientists will focus on ways to improve the quality of natural resources.

Climate change research paper topics vary from anthropogenic climate to physical risks of abrupt climate change. Papers should focus on a specific climate change research question. Read on to learn more about examples of climate change research topics and questions.

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What makes a strong climate change research topic.

A strong climate change research paper topic should be precise in order for others to understand your research. You must use research methods to find topics that discuss a concern about climate issues. Your broader topic should be of current importance and a well-defined discourse on climate change.

Tips for Choosing a Climate Change Research Topic

Research what environmental scientists say. Environmental scientists study ecological problems. Their studies include the threat of climate change on environmental issues. Studies completed by these professionals are a good starting point.
Use original research to review articles for sources. Starting with a general search is a good place to get ideas. However, as you begin to refine your search, use original research papers that have passed through the stage of peer review.
Discover the current climatic conditions of the research area. The issue of climate change affects each area differently. Gather information on the current climate and historical climate conditions to help bolster your research.
Consider current issues of climate change. You want your analyses on climate change to be current. Using historical data can help you delve deep into climate change effects. First, however, it needs to back up climate change risks.
Research the climate model evaluation options. There are different approaches to climate change evaluation. Choosing the right climate model evaluation system will help solidify your research.

What’s the Difference Between a Research Topic and a Research Question?

A research topic is a broad area of study that can encompass several different issues. An example might be the key role of climate change in the United States. While this topic might make for a good paper, it is too broad and must be narrowed to be written effectively.

A research question narrows the topic down to one or two points. The question provides a framework from which to start building your paper. The answers to your research question create the substance of your paper as you report the findings.

How to Create Strong Climate Change Research Questions

To create a strong climate change research question, start settling on the broader topic. Once you decide on a topic, use your research skills and make notes about issues or debates that may make an interesting paper. Then, narrow your ideas down into a niche that you can address with theoretical or practical research.

2. Economic Impact of Climate Change

Climate can have a negative effect on both local and global economies. While the costs may vary greatly, even a slight change could cost the United States a loss in the Global Domestic Product (GDP). For example, rising sea levels may damage the fiber optic infrastructure the world relies on for trade and communication.

3. Solutions for Reducing the Effect of Future Climate Conditions

Solutions for reducing the effect of future climate conditions range from reducing the reliance on fossil fuels to reducing the number of children you have. Some of these solutions to climate change are radical ideas and may not be accepted by the general population.

4. Federal Government Climate Policy

The United States government’s climate policy is extensive. The climate policy is the federal government’s action for climate change and how it hopes to make an impact. It includes adopting the use of electric vehicles instead of gas-powered cars. It also includes the use of alternative energy systems such as wind energy.

5. Understanding of Climate Change

Understanding climate change is a broad climate change research topic. With this, you can introduce different research methods for tracking climate change and showing a focused effect on specific areas, such as the impact on water availability in certain geographic areas.

6. Carbon Emissions Impact of Climate Change

Carbon emissions are a major factor in climate change. Due to the greenhouse effect they cause, the world is seeing a higher number of devastating weather events. An increase in the number and intensity of tsunamis, hurricanes, and tornados are some of the results.

7. Evidence of Climate Change

There is ample evidence of climate change available, thanks to the scientific community. However, some of these implications of climate change are hotly contested by those with poor views about climate scientists. Proof of climate change includes satellite images, ice cores, and retreating glaciers.

8. Cause and Mitigation of Climate Change

The causes of climate change can be either human activities or natural causes. Greenhouse gas emissions are an example of how human activities can alter the world’s climate. However, natural causes such as volcanic and solar activity are also issues. Mitigation plans for these effects may include options for both causes.

9. Health Threats and Climate Change

Climate change can have an adverse effect on human health. The impacts on health from climate change can include extreme heat, air pollution, and increasing allergies. The CDC warns these changes can cause respiratory threats, cardiovascular issues, and heat-related illnesses.

10. Industrial Pollution and the Effects of Climate Change

Just as car emissions can have an adverse effect on the climate, so can industrial pollution. It is one of the leading factors in greenhouse gas effects on average temperature. While the US has played a key role in curtailing industrial pollution, other countries need to follow suit to mitigate the negative impacts it causes.

Climate Change Research Questions

What are some mitigation and adaptation to climate change options for farmers?
How do alternative energy sources play a role in climate change?
Do federal policies on climate change help reduce carbon emissions?
What impacts of climate change affect the environment?
Do climate change and social movements mean the end of travel?

Choosing the Right Climate Change Research Topic

Choosing the correct climate change research paper topic takes continuous research and refining. Your topic starts as a general overview of an area of climate change. Then, after extensive research, you can narrow it down to a specific question.

You need to ensure that your research is timely, however. For example, you don’t want to address the effects of climate change on natural resources from 15 or 20 years ago. Instead, you want to focus on views about climate change from resources within the last five years.

Climate Change Research Topics FAQ

A climate change research paper has five parts, beginning with introducing the problem and background before moving into a review of related sources. After reviewing, share methods and procedures, followed by data analysis . Finally, conclude with a summary and recommendations.

A thesis statement presents the topic of your paper to the reader. It also helps you as you begin to organize your paper, much like a mission statement. Therefore, your thesis statement may change during writing as you start to present your arguments.

According to the US Forest Service, climate change issues are related to topics regarding forest management, biodiversity, and species distribution. Climate change is a broad focus that affects many topics.

To write a research paper title, a good strategy is not to write the title right away. Instead, wait until the end after you finish everything else. Then use a short and to-the-point phrase that summarizes your document. Use keywords from the paper and avoid jargon.

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99 Climate Change Dissertation Topics & Research Titles

By Amanda Jun 13, 2023 in Climate Change | No Comments

Before we suggest a list of climate change dissertation topics, we must understand what it is and its importance in our life. The climate of the Earth has been changing rapidly and has brought about many physical and environmental changes all of which significantly affect the inhabitants of the Earth. As such, climate change, its […]

This list of dissertation topics in climate change is in no way enough to cover logistics associated with climate change yet these research topics on climate change are presented here as a point of focus to get you started thinking about a direction associated with climate change that most appeals to you.

List of climate change dissertation topics:

The researchers can also search terms like dissertation topics on climate change or climate change research topics to locate this post and get benefit from it.

Assessing the role of forests and carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation.

Is climate change impactful on farming production quality?

What are the key barriers to the adoption of climate change policies- a review of global literature.

The impact of climate change on urban infrastructure and resilience.

The impact of climate change on indigenous communities and their traditional livelihoods.

An online survey of the causes of climate change denial in Norway.

How has the pandemic influenced the implementation and effectiveness of climate change mitigation measures?

Is tourism sensitive to climate change? A survey of international tourists.

Investigating the role of corporate social responsibility in addressing climate change.

Have vulnerable populations facing tsunamis/ tropical dry forest fires developed resilience? An exploration.

Investigating the role of agriculture in climate change adaptation and mitigation.

An analysis of healthcare impacts due to the combined threat of climate change and access inequality to healthcare services in poor socio-economic environments.

What are the opportunities for a green and sustainable recovery from the pandemic that can also address climate change challenges?

What are the potential implications of the pandemic on climate change policy and international cooperation?

How has the pandemic influenced public attitudes and behaviors towards sustainable lifestyles and consumption patterns?

What are the social and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on vulnerable communities in the context of climate change?

What are the current gaps in knowledge of climate change?

Exploring the nexus between climate change, health, and public policy.

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected public perception and awareness of climate change?

Exploring the role of gender in climate change adaptation and resilience.

Is climate change a stronger threat to populations vulnerable to potential disasters?

Evaluating the role of renewable energy sources in achieving the UK’s climate change targets.

Climate change acceptance of denial? Primary exploration of global perspectives.

Is the colour of our oceans reflective of changes in climate? A review of literature.

The impact of climate change on Neanderthal species- forensic anthropology .

The impact of climate change on coastal erosion and flooding in UK coastal regions.

Is readiness for climate change adaptation indicative of a sense of personal responsibility among individuals?

The implications of climate change on the mental health of people in current times- what is known?

What are the steps being taken by China in improving the quality of air in its metropolitan cities? A survey.

Is climate change adaptation behaviour difficult for small farmers to practice? A primary exploration.

What are the chief risks posed by climate change to the mental health of humans? An exploration.

The impact of climate-induced migration on host countries and the need for international policy responses.

The concept of food security and its relationship with climate change- what are the implications for the future?

Are global climate change policies geared towards justice for future generations?

Changes to wildlife due to climate change- a global review.

What efforts are energy-based corporations taking for climate change adaptations? An exploration.

Assessing the economic costs of climate change and the benefits of mitigation and adaptation measures.

Investigating the impact of climate change on UK biodiversity and conservation efforts.

Investigating the role of climate change in shaping global geopolitics and international relations.

Investigating the relationship between climate change and social inequality.

Assessing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation strategies in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The role of international climate change agreements in promoting global cooperation and mitigation efforts.

What motivates small and medium enterprises towards climate change adaptation? A survey-based exploration.

The importance of social media in advancing climate change literacy in developing countries.

Assessing the vulnerability of UK cities to climate change impacts and developing adaptation strategies.

What is the potential impact of changes to marine life due to climate change on human populations? Review of literature.

Investigating the socio-economic implications of climate change on UK agricultural systems.

Investigating the role of multinational corporations in addressing climate change through sustainable practices and emissions reduction.

How important is the human contribution to acceleration in climate change? Evidence-based literature.

Rise in sea levels associated with climate change- what is understood?

Is following of energy-saving practices in daily life representative of responsibility towards climate change?

How is the construction of dams impacting climate change through ecology- an analysis of literature.

How has the pandemic affected climate change research and data collection efforts?

Exploring the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events.

Can we see solutions to climate change? Enumerating the key points.

Drought in farming communities and causes associated with it- an exploration of current literature.

Evaluating the effectiveness of climate change education and awareness campaigns in the UK.

Examining the effectiveness of international climate finance mechanisms in supporting adaptation and mitigation projects in developing countries.

Is there a tipping point in climate change?

Assessing the effectiveness of climate change education and awareness programs.

What role can renewable energy technologies play in supporting economic recovery and addressing climate change post-pandemic?

Examining the public perception and understanding of climate change in the UK.

Is climate change a hoax? Theoretical evidence for an argumentative debate.

Assessing the effectiveness of climate change policies and initiatives in the United Kingdom.

The impact of climate change on cultural heritage sites and their preservation.

Assessing the vulnerability of small island developing states (SIDS) to climate change impacts and the need for international support.

A study of the causes of climate change over the past one hundred years.

Assessing the vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise and climate change.

Evaluating the effectiveness of international climate change agreements in addressing global warming.

Evaluating the effectiveness of climate change communication and public engagement strategies.

Changes to groundwater networks amidst discussions of climate change- a study of forecasted changes.

Is it possible to slow negative climate change through the calculated human impact? An exploration.

Is climate change adaptation the forte of a special kind of psychology?

Climate change impacts on coral reef bleaching and implications for marine biodiversity in the Bahamas.

Change in animal biodiversity due to climate change- studying the direct and indirect impacts on human populations.

The impact of climate change on biodiversity loss: A case study of endangered species.

Are changes to the Arctic covering a reason to panic? Evidence from a climate change perspective.

Groundwater reservoirs, effects of climate change and consequences for economic valuations of agricultural produce in farming communities- a review of literature/ a survey.

How has the COVID-19 pandemic impacted global greenhouse gas emissions and their contribution to climate change?

Ice sheets, sea levels and climate change- investigating a relationship.

The changes in drought environments in the past ten years – is climate change to blame?

Assessing the implications of climate change for biodiversity conservation and protected areas.

The impact of climate change on water resources and water scarcity.

Is the rise in violence attributable in some measure to climate change?

Is urbanisation a potential reason for climate change? A review of literature.

The role of the UK transportation sector in contributing to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.

How urgent is an action plan to tackle climate change? A review.

Investigating the social and economic consequences of climate-induced migration.

Politics within climate change- understanding the conceptual bases for the emergence of bullies and victims in the global sphere.

Cycles of drought and relationship with climate change- finding answers from literature.

How important is scientific literacy for acknowledgement and understanding of the causes and implications of climate change among high school students in the UK?

What lessons can be learned from the pandemic response to inform climate change adaptation and resilience strategies?

The role of renewable energy technologies in mitigating climate change.

An exploration of how climate change has given rise to the term “climate refugees”.

Examining the effects of climate change on food security and agricultural production.

Assessing the role of UK businesses and industries in mitigating climate change through sustainable practices.

The role of indigenous knowledge and traditional practices in climate change adaptation.

Are there skeptics to climate change among healthcare professionals? Investigating viewpoints.

What is the influence of climate change on food security in terms of variations in farming practices across the world?

There you go. Use the list well and let us know if you have any comments or suggestions for our topics related blog posts for the future or looking to get help with dissertation writing , send us an email at [email protected] .

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Climate change, energy, environment and sustainability topics research guide

What is climate change.

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. The world is now warming faster than at any point in recorded history, which disrupts the usual balance of nature and is a threat to human beings and other forms of life on Earth. This topic guide includes sample keywords and search terms, databases to find sources, and samples of online books.

Example keywords and subtopics

Example keywords or search terms:

Climate change
global warming
greenhouse effect or greenhouse gas
climate crisis
environmental change
clean energy
alternative energy or renewable energy
green energy or renewable energy or clean energy
Low carbon or carbon neutral
Carbon offsetting
sustainability environment or sustainability
environmental protection
pollution or contamination
impact or effect or influence
cost or price or expense or money or financial
fossil fuels or coal or oil or gas

Tip: This is a big topic with lots written so you can often focus on one or two subtopics. This will help to find more relevant sources, more quickly and be a better fit for an assignment.

Possible subtopics ideas: Pick one or two subtopics and then add those words to your search.

Health impacts of climate changes (e.g. air pollution, water pollution, etc.)
impacts on a specific city, state, region or country
political impacts (e.g. voting, government policy, etc.)
impact on specific population or culture (e.g. children, elderly, racial or ethic group, country, etc.)
specific types of renewable or alternative energy (e.g. solar, wind, bio, etc.)
example of new technology (e.g. electric cars or electric vehicles or hybrid vehicles
economic impacts (e.g. business, employment, industry (e.g. oil, coal, etc.)
weather and impacts (e.g. rising sea levels, flooding, droughts or heat waves, etc.)
media aspects (e.g. news coverage, advertising, misinformation, movies, music, etc.)
Tutorial: Creating an effective search strategy

Creating an effective search strategy tutorial video. 3 minutes 24 seconds.

Use meaningful keywords to find the best sources
Apply search strategies like AND and OR to connect keywords
Tutorial: What is a library database and why should I use one?

What is a library database and why should I use one tutorial video. 3 minutes.

Identify what a library database is
Recognize the two main types of library databases
Know why you should use them
Understand why searching a library database is different than searching the general internet

Databases for finding sources

Article Databases -

Use articles to find new research, specific information and evidence to support or refute a claim. You can also look at the bibliography or works cited to find additional sources. Some articles give an overview of a specific topic -- sometimes called "review articles" or "meta-analyses" or "systematic review." Databases are like mini-search engines for finding articles (e.g. Business Source Premier database searches business journals, business magazines and business newspapers). Pick a database that searches the subject of articles you want to find.

Agricultural & Environmental Science Database Search journals and literature on agriculture, pollution, animals, environment, policy, natural resources, water issues and more. Searches tools like AGRICOLA, Environmental Sciences & Pollution Management (ESPM), and Digests of Environmental Impact Statements (EIS) databases.
GreenFILE Collection of scholarly, government and general-interest titles. Multidisciplinary by nature, GreenFILE draws on the connections between the environment and agriculture, education, law, health and technology. Topics covered include global climate change, green building, pollution, sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, recycling, and more.
Ethnic NewsWatch Ethnic NewsWatch is a current resource of full-text newspapers, magazines, and journals of the ethnic and minority press from 1990, providing researchers access to essential, often overlooked perspectives.
Opposing Viewpoints in Context Find articles on current issues, including viewpoint articles, topic overviews, statistics, primary documents, magazine and newspaper articles.

Sample of online books

Below are a selection of online books and readings on the broad topic. We have more online books, journal articles, and sources in our Libraries Search and article databases.

A climate policy revolution : what the science of complexity reveals about saving our planet by Roland Kupers ISBN: 9780674246812 Publication Date: 2020 "In this book, Roland Kupers argues that the climate crisis is well suited to the bottom-up, rapid, and revolutionary change complexity science theorizes; he succinctly makes the case that complexity science promises policy solutions to address climate change."

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Hot Topics on Climate Change

On June 1, 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he will withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement. In spite of this announcement, the fact remains that a global climate change agreement under the United Nations was adopted in December 2015 in Paris. Prior to Trump’s presidency, countries—including the United States— had submitted their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) for the next one-and-a-half decades. These INDCs lower global greenhouse gas emissions compared to existing policies. However, when projected further into the future, the INDCs still suggest a median warming of roughly 2.5 to 3.0°C by 2100. This exceeds the “well-below 2°C” aim of the Paris Agreement, and year-2030 emissions are higher than what energy-economic analyses indicate would minimize overall costs in view of the necessary long-term reductions. Should the United States really depart the Paris Agreement, which can only technically happen on November 4, 2020 (at the earliest), the situation will only get worst.

Many hot topics have marked the year when it comes to climate change. And it is very likely —more than 90 percent probability—using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) technical language, that these topics, and many others, will continue to be increasingly hot in the United States and elsewhere during 2017 and beyond.

The Climate in 2016

Climate conditions were not that great in 2016. Last year the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the global surface temperature was record warm in 2015. This presses the record set the year before by 0.16°C, the largest margin ever by which one year has beaten another on the records (NOAA 2016). And climate trends continued to break marks in 2016, according to NASA (2016).

Only in the course of this year will we know for certain, but a preliminary November 2016 WMO report assessed that 2016 will likely be the hottest year on record, with global temperatures reaching even higher marks than the record-breaking temperatures of 2015 (WMO 2016). Global average temperature by the end of 2016 was already running 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, a number perilously close to the 1.5°C target aim of the Paris climate agreement of December 2015.

On other fronts, while global temperatures warmed, here in the United States the political climate also began to heat up. Exactly a month and a half after the landmark Paris Agreement officially took effect on November 4, 2016—when one hundred nations, accounting for 69 percent of global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, had formally joined the treaty (UNFCCC 2016)—Mr. Donald John Trump was formally elected by the United States Electoral College on December 19, 2016 as the country´s 45th President.

The hot topic here is that, on various recent occasions, President Trump expressed his skepticism about human-induced climate change. This included a tweet expressing a view that “the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive,” and various other public manifestations. Trump stated that with his “America First Energy Plan” he would revert all of President Obama´s policies on climate change, which would include cancelling the country’s participation in the Paris Agreement, ending U.S. funding of the United Nations climate change programs, and abandoning the Clean Power Plan—in order to bring back the coal industry.

Mr. Trump’s leadership choices for the Department of Energy, the Department of Interior and the Environmental Protection Agency—the three most important, energy-policy-related Federal State institutions—have either denied or strongly challenged the science of climate change. In fact, at the same time that many world leaders are creating dedicated policies to support climate change mitigation and supporting renewable energy sources in order to open new economic sectors, some world leaders perceive this movement as a threat to existing, more conservative, economic forces, like the ones associated with the fossil-fuel industry (Nature 2016b). And indeed, on June 1, 2017, when President Trump proclaimed that the United States was quitting the Paris Climate Agreement, he very much pleased some of the forces within his administration that goaded him to do so.

The Paris Agreement: The Starting Point of a Three-Year Process

Under the December 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement, more than 190 nations committed to take ambitious action 1) to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, 2) to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C, and 3) to achieve net zero emissions in the second half of this century (UNFCCC 2016a). This means that, from emissions of roughly 50 GtCO2eq/yr today, in the second half this century these emissions will not only need to be zeroed completely, but turned negative.

This will only be possible with massive carbon sequestration, which is the process of removing carbon from the atmosphere and depositing it in a reservoir. The candidate sectors for this process are the land use sector, with the afforestation and reforestation of large areas of the globe, and the power sector, with the use of carbon dioxide removal technologies, such as fossil-fuel-based and biomass-based power plants with carbon capture and sequestration facilities.

Already earlier, in preparation of the agreement, countries had submitted their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) for the agreed 2025 to 2030 period, promising to lower global GHG emissions compared to already existing policies. These INDCs outline national plans to address climate change after 2020. They address a range of issues of which targets and actions for mitigating GHG emissions are a core component.

The Paris Agreement is a general document, with a framework and overarching goals for global climate action. It is the beginning of a longer process. Some of its loose ends were tied up during the 22nd Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 22) in Marrakech in November of 2016 (UNFCCC 2016b)—which served as the first meeting of the governing body of the Agreement. But ironing out Paris Agreement details will take some time. Countries participating in COP 22 aim to have the process established by 2018, with a review of progress planned for this same year. But the only concrete outcomes of COP 22 were procedural in nature, with parties to the Convention adopting work plans for further discussions.

However, the real result of the Paris Agreement and of COP 22 (and their long-term success) will depend on assessments of whether or not the already committed pledges, and the ones to come, will have the expected effect on reducing aggregate GHG emissions. Success will mean that the world achieved the temperature objective of holding global warming to well below 2°C and is continuing to “pursue efforts“ to limit it to 1.5°C.

Temperature Increase as a Consequence of the INDCs

It should come as no surprise that limiting global warming to any level implies that the total amount of GHG emissions that can ever be emitted into the atmosphere is finite, given the technical and economic limitations of carbon sequestration possibilities to compensate for that. For example, for a higher than 66 percent chance (meaning “likely”) of limiting global warming to below the internationally agreed temperature limit of 2°C, carbon budget estimates range around 590 to1,240 Gt CO2 from 2015 onward (Rogelj et al 2016b).

According to IPCC language, a statement that an outcome is “likely” means that the probability of this outcome can range from ≥66 percent (fuzzy boundaries implied) to 100 percent probability. This implies that all alternative outcomes are “unlikely” (0 to 33 percent probability). To put this carbon-budged range in perspective, given current annual emissions of about 40 Gt CO2 globally, this means that the world has a budget of no more than 15 to 60 years of CO2 emissions left at the level of today´s emissions to limiting global warming to 2°C. Only the successful deployment of carbon sequestration practices and technologies could extend this time frame.

More specifically, for keeping warming to below 2°C, some two thirds of the total CO2 budget have already been emitted, with an urgent need for global CO2 emissions to start to decline, so as not to foreclose the possibility of holding warming to below 2°C. The Paris Agreement acknowledges both of these insights and aims, on the one hand, to reach global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible and, on the other hand, to achieve “a balance” between anthropogenic emissions and removals of GHGs in the second half of this century (UNFCCC 2016a).

The purpose of this digest is to assess the extent to which the proposed INDCs impact global GHG emissions by 2030, and explore the consistency of these reductions with the “well below 2°C” objective of the Paris Agreement. This analysis draws heavily on a previous published work (Rogelj et al 2016a), in which I was one of the authors, and where we updated and expanded INDC modelling results that were collected in the framework of the 2015 UNEP Emissions Gap Report (UNEP 2015), in which I was also one of the authors.

The number of INDCs considered by the studies we assessed ranged from the initial 118 INDCs submitted by October 1, 2015 to the final 160 INDCs from the different parties submitted by December 12, 2015 (Rogelj et al 2016a). These INDCs cover emissions from Parties to the Convention responsible for roughly 85 to 88 percent to more than 96 percent of global emissions in 2012. Furthermore, we look at projections of global-mean temperature increase over the twenty-first century that would be consistent with the INDCs, and at post-2030 implications of the INDCs for limiting warming to no more than 2°C.

We used four scenario groups to frame the implications of the INDCs for global GHGs in 2030: 1) no-policy baseline scenarios, 2) current-policy scenarios, 3) INDC scenarios, and 3) least-cost 2°C scenarios:

No-policy baseline scenarios are emissions projections that assume that no new climate policies have been put into place from 2005 onwards. In this analysis, the no-policy baseline scenarios are selected from the scenario database that accompanied the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (available at: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/AR5DB/ ) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) By design, these no-policy baseline scenarios exclude climate policies, but may include other policies that can influence emissions and are implemented for other reasons, like some energy efficiency or energy security policies.
Current-policy scenarios consider the most recent estimates of global emissions and take into account implemented policies. These scenarios were drawn from three global INDC analyses (see Rogelj et al 2016a for more details). Not all countries and sectors are covered by these official and independent country-specific data sources. If this is the case, the median estimate of the three global studies for the ‘current-policy baseline’ for that country or sector is assumed.
INDC scenarios are at the core of this analysis. They project how global GHG emissions would evolve under the INDCs. These projections are based on the eight global INDC analyses (see Rogelj et al 2016a for more details), which in their calculations use official estimates from the countries themselves.
2°C scenarios are idealized global scenarios which are consistent with limiting warming to well below 2°C, keeping open the option of strengthening the global temperature target to 1.5°C. These scenarios are based on a subset of scenarios from the IPCC AR5 Scenario Database that meet the following criteria: they have a greater than 66 per cent chance of keeping warming to below 2°C by 2100; until 2020, they assume that the actions countries pledged earlier under the UNFCCC Cancun Accord are fully implemented; and after 2020, they distribute emission reductions across regions, gases and sectors in such a way that the total discounted costs of the necessary global reductions are minimised, often referred to as least-cost or cost-optimal trajectories.

All scenarios are here expressed in terms of billion tons of global annual CO2 equivalent emissions (Gt CO2e/yr), with. CO2 equivalence of other GHGs calculated by means of 100-year global warming potentials (GWP-100) (Rogelj et al 2016a).

INDC Aggregate Emissions Impact

Different countries report their INDCs differently. Some provide ranges instead of a single number of emissions reductions. Many INDCs lack necessary details, including clarity on sectors and gases covered, on the base year or a reference from which reductions would be measured, or accounting practices related to land use and the use of specific market mechanisms. Also, some of the actions listed in INDCs are, implicitly or explicitly, conditional on other factors, like the availability of financial or technological support. The interpretation of all these factors influences the range of possible outcomes. So, conditional and unconditional INDC scenarios have to be distinguished from each other, although some argue that, implicitly, all INDCs are conditional, with “some being more conditional than others.” This is because, even if a country submits an unconditional INDC, later in time facts out of a country’s control may change its future priorities. Even so, we will keep here a distinction between conditional and unconditional INDCs.

Unconditionally, the INDCs are expected to result in global GHG emissions of about 55 (52 to 57; 10 to 90 percent range) billion tons of annual CO2 equivalent emissions (Gt CO2e/yr; see four scenerio groups above and Figure 1 below) in 2030. This is a reduction of around 9 (7 to 13) Gt CO2e/yr by 2030 relative to the median no-policy baseline scenario estimate and around 4 (2 to 8) Gt CO2e/yr relative to the median current-policy scenario estimate. To have these numbers in context, global GHG emissions in 2010 are estimated at about 48 (46 to 50) Gt CO2e/yr (UNEP 2015), and our median no-policy baseline estimate reaches about 65 Gt CO2e/yr by 2030.

Figure 1: Global greenhouse gas emissions as implied by submitted INDCs compared to no-policy baseline, current-policy, and 2°C scenarios. White lines show the median of each respective range. The white dashed line shows the median estimate of what the INDCs would deliver if all conditionalities are met. To avoid clutter, the 20th and 80th percentile ranges are shown for the no-policy baseline and 2°C scenarios. For current-policy and the INDC scenarios, the minimum-maximum and central 80th percentile range across all assessed studies are given. Each different symbol-colour combination represents one study. Dashed brown lines connect data points for each study.

A number of countries place conditions on all or part of their INDC. Some included a range of reduction targets in their INDC and attached conditions to the implementation of the more ambitious end. Others indicate that their entire INDC is conditional. Of the INDCs submitted, roughly half came with both conditional and unconditional components, a third was conditional only, and the rest did not make any distinction.

For a number of countries, the targets included in their INDC submission suggest achieving emission levels above the estimated no-policy baseline or their current-policy scenario. These countries are thus expected to overachieve their INDC climate targets by default.

Uncertainties in the Estimates and Optimal 2°C Pathways

There is a wide range of possible estimates of future emissions under nominally similar scenarios. These differences are a result of a number of factors, including modeling methods, input data, and assumptions regarding country intent. In fact, four confounding factors in this respect can be identified: 1) global and national sectors coverage, 2) uncertainties in projections, 3) land-use emissions, and 4) historical emissions and metrics.

Once the GHG implications of the INDCs by 2030 are quantified, the question that remains is whether these levels are consistent with the Paris Agreement’s aim of holding warming to well below 2°C. The Paris Agreement’s aim of reaching net-zero GHG emissions in the second half of the century goes even further. For some non-CO2 emissions, only limited mitigation options have been identified. Therefore, net-zero CO2 emissions are always achieved before achieving net-zero GHG emissions. The Scenario Database that accompanied the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Chang (IPCC) is used to explore cost-optimal 2°C pathways from 2020 onward (four scenerios).

The comparison of these cost-optimal 2°C scenarios to the INDC projections shows a large discrepancy (Fig. 1). The median cost-optimal path towards keeping warming to below 2°C (starting reductions in 2020) and the emissions currently implied by the unconditional INDCs differ by about 14 (10–16) Gt CO2e/yr in 2030. Even if the conditions that are linked to some INDCs are met, this difference remains of the order of 11 Gt CO2e/yr. As they stand now, the INDCs clearly do not lead the world to a pathway towards limiting warming to well below 2°C.

Implications of INDCs Post 2030

A large share of the potential warming until 2100 is determined not just by the INDCs until 2025 or 2030, but also by what happens afterwards. Different approaches can be followed to extend INDCs into the future, which basically assume that climate action stops, continues, or accelerates. Stopping action is often modelled by assuming that emissions return to a no-climate-policy trajectory after 2030; continuing action by assuming that the level of post-2030 action is similar to pre-2030 action on the basis of a metric of choice; and accelerating action by post-2030 action that goes beyond such a level. Because of the path-dependence and inertia of the global energy system, the INDCs have a critical role in preparing what can come afterwards.

Each approach may lead to different global temperature outcomes, even when starting from the same INDC assessment for 2025 to 2030. As a conservative interpretation of the Paris Agreement, the assumption made here is that climate action continues after 2030 at a level of ambition that is similar to that of the INDCs. The assumption that climate action will continue or accelerate over time is supported by the Agreement’s requirement that the successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) of each country must represent a progression beyond the earlier contributions, and reflect the highest possible ambition of that country.

Under these assumptions of continued climate action, the 2030 unconditional-INDC emission range is roughly consistent with a median warming relative to pre-industrial levels of 2.6 to 3.1°C (median, 2.9°C; full scenario projection uncertainty, 2.2 to 3.5°C; Table 1), with warming continuing its increase afterwards. This is an improvement on the current-policy and no-policy baseline scenarios, whose median projections suggest about 3.2°C and more than 4°C of temperature rise by 2100, respectively.

The successful implementation of all conditional INDCs would decrease the median estimate by an additional 0.2°C, but keeps the outcome far from the targets the Paris Agreement is aiming for, with well-below 2°C and 1.5°C of warming. Moreover, all above-mentioned values represent median projections coming out of emission scenarios, which in themselves are a function of uncertain assumptions with respect to population growth (more growth, more emissions), economic growth (here too, more growth, more emissions) and even rates of technological improvements (more improvements, less emissions).

Because the climate response to GHG emissions remains uncertain, it is also possible that substantially higher temperatures will materialize with compelling likelihoods (Table 1). For example, at the 66th percentile level, warming under the unconditional INDCs is projected to be about 0.3 °C higher (3.2°C, with a range of 2.9 to 3.4°C). Finally, the INDC cases that are discussed here will exceed the available carbon budget for keeping warming to below 2°C by 2030 with 66 percent probability (that is, roughly 750 to 800 Gt CO2e implied emissions under the INDCs during the 2011 to 2030 period compared to the 750 to 1,400 Gt CO2e available).

Table 1: Estimates of global temperature rise for INDC and other scenarios categories. For each scenario, temperature values at the 50 percent, 66 percent and 90 percent probability levels are provided for the median emission estimates, as well as the 10th–90th-percentile range of emissions estimates (in parentheses) and the same estimates when also including scenario projection uncertainty (in brackets). Temperature increases are relative to pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), and are derived from simulations with a probabilistic set-up with the simple model MAGICC (see Rogelj et al 2016a for more details).

The question thus arises whether global temperature rise can be kept to well below 2°C with accelerated action after 2030. Global scenarios that aim to keep warming to below 2°C and that achieve this objective from 2030 GHG emissions similar to those from the INDC range have been assessed in detail by recent large-scale model-comparison projects (Clarke et al 2014 and Riahi et al 2015), but show that even with accelerated action after 2030 options to keep warming to well below 2°C from current INDCs are severely limited, particularly if some key mitigation technologies, such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) or CCS with biomass energy (BECCS), for example, do not scale up as anticipated.

Scenarios in which global warming is successfully contained show rapidly declining emissions after 2030, with global CO2 emissions from energy- and industry-related sources reaching net-zero levels between 2060 and 2080. The global economy is thus assumed to fully decarbonize in the time span of three to five decades and from 2030 levels that are higher than today’s. Furthermore, about two-thirds of these scenarios achieve a balance of global GHG emissions between 2080 and 2100. Because some non-CO2 emissions are virtually impossible to eliminate entirely (for example those from specific agricultural or animal agricultural sources), reaching such a balance will involve net-negative CO2 emissions at a global scale to compensate for any residual non-CO2 emissions, limiting global-average temperatures increase over time.

Exploring futures in which a global balance of GHG emissions can be achieved in the second half of this century with technically feasible and societally acceptable technologies represents a major research challenge emerging from the Paris Agreement. This challenge is particularly relevant to policy, because limiting emissions in 2030 does not only increase the chances of attaining the 2°C target, but also reduces the need to rely on unproven, potentially risky or controversial technologies in the future (Clark et al 2014 and Riahi et al 2015).

Final Considerations

The world has made its decision on Climate Change, despite some recent setbacks here and there. As a recent Editorial of the New York Times put it very clearly, “It´s hard to know how Mr. Trump will change climate policy, but it is almost certain that he won’t advance it” (The New York Times 2016). And indeed, if it is true that the United States will leave the Paris Agreement, for sure it will lose the ability to pressure other countries, including the large emerging economies like Brazil, China and India, to do more.

On the global front, as discussed here, actions may still be too slow and/or too weak, but we can be optimistic and say that, in spite of some hurdles on the way, momentum is building. Covering more than 90 percent of the world’s GHG emissions with climate plans in the form of INDCs was a historic achievement. Now that the Paris Agreement came into force, and that the original INDCs are not simply “Intended” anymore (so, they are no longer INDCs but now Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), it will continue with NDCs, subject to strong transparency of individual contributions and a global stock-take, in the light of equity and science, every five years.

However, the optimism accompanying this process has to be carefully balanced against the important challenges that current INDCs imply for post-2030 emissions reductions. Even starting now limiting warming to no more than 2°C relative to preindustrial levels constitutes an enormous societal challenge. While the contributions open a new era for climate policy under the Paris agreement, they also represent both an invitation and call, if not a need, for further action. Furthering deeper reductions in the coming decade, as well as preparing for a global transformation until mid-century are critical. In absence of incrementally stronger policy signals over the coming five years to a decade, the likelihood that our society will be able to meet the challenge of limiting warming to below 2°C with less than even odds will become extremely small.

Therefore, let us put this clear: Should the United States’ new administration, indeed step back from the previous administration commitment, two possibilities could arise. First, other major emitting nations could also follow suit, turning the Paris Agreement an absolutely irrelevant effort of international negotiation, driving the planet towards unknown climate consequences. Second, because the United States is the second largest GHG emitter, with some 15 percent of world´s total emissions, any climate-change global agreement to succeed would probably also require to have the United States on board, something that is now under a question mark. Therefore, the latter in itself is already a problem even if the former does not materialize. Interestingly enough, the very structure of the Paris Agreement, like the Kyoto Protocol, was designed largely to United States specifications, and also an answer to United States’ prayers.

The problem is that, in fact, political upsets could stall coordinated international mitigation action, with long-term consequences, eventually even rendering the 2°C target unachievable (Sanderson et at 2016). Interesting enough, although the governments of the world have requested the IPCC to assess, through a Special Report due in 2018 (IPCC 2016), the impacts of 1.5°C of warming, as well as ways to prevent temperatures from rising higher, many scientists have practically already written off the chances of limiting warming to 1.5 °C (Rogelj et al 2016b and Luderer et al 2016).

As discussed before, the Paris Agreement commits governments to keeping average global surface temperatures to between 1.5°C and 2°C above the preindustrial level, but warming has already passed the 1°C mark (WMO 2016). If the 2°C goal is already seen implausible by some, given a lack of more effective actions and current politics, let alone the even more ambitions 1.5°C target (Nature 2016a), let us hope that the economies of the world will be able to do their homework on time. We cannot travel the last mile with quick fixes, which would be too dependent on extremely risky and uncertain technologies, such as geoengineering, as some have begun to consider (Hubert et al 2016). Unfortunately, the recent move of the current United States Administration with respect to the Paris Agreement is not going to be of much help in that respect.

T his digest has been inspired by from Rogelj et al (2016a), of which Roberto Schaeffer is one of the authors. The author wishes to acknowledge extremely helpful comments from a reviewer of an earlier draft. Any remaining errors are the responsibility of the author alone.

Roberto Schaeffer

Clarke, L. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds O. Edenhofer et al.) Ch. 6, 413-510 (Cambridge University Press, 2014). Hubert, AM., Kruger, T. Rayner, S. Code of conduct for geoengineering. Nature 537, 488 (2016). IPCC. Scoping Meeting for the IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. Geneva, Switzerland, 15-16 August. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/ , accessed on 30 December (2016). Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., Delsa, L., Edelenbosch, O. Y., Emmerling, J., Krey, V., McCollum, D. L., Pachauri, S., Riahi, K., Saveyn, B., Tavoni, M., Vrontisi, Z., van Vuuren, D. P., Arent, D., Arvesen, A., Fujimori, S., Iyer, G. Keppo, I., Kermeli, K., Mima, S., Ó Broin, E., Pietzcker, R. C., Sano, F., Scholz, Y., van Ruijven, B. & Wilson, C. Deep decarbonisation towards 1.5 °C – 2 °C stabilisation. Policy findings from the ADVANCE project (first edition, 2016). NASA. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/climate-trends-continue-to-bre… , accessed on 20 December (2016). Nature. Climate ambition. Nature 537, 585-586, 29 September (2016a). Nature. Let reason prevail. Nature 538, 289, 20 October (2016b). NOAA. http://www.noaa.gov/climate , accessed on 20 December (2016). Riahi, K. et al. Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 90, Part A, 8-23, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016 (2015). Rogelj, J., den Elzen, M., Hohne, N., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K. & Meinshausen, M. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 631-639, doi:10.1038/nature18307 (2016a). Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gillett, N. P., van Vuuren, D. P., Riahi, K., Allen, M. & Knutti, R. Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled. Nature Climate Change 6, 245-252-, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2868 (2016b). Sanderson, B. M. & Knutti, R. Delays in US mitigation could rulled out Paris targets. Nature Climate Change, advance publication, published online on 26 December, http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3193.html , accessed on 28 December (2016). The New York Times. States Will Lead on Climate Change in the Trump Era. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/26/opinion/states-will-lead-on-climate-ch… , accessed on 26 December (2016). UNEP. The Emissions Gap Report 2015. 98 (UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya, 2015). UNFCCC. Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Report No. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/109r01.pdf , accessed on 20 December (2016a). UNFCCC. http://unfccc.int/meetings/marrakech_nov_2016/session/9676.php , assessed on 27 December (2016b). WMO. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/provisional-wmo-statement-… , accessed on 20 December (2016).

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Last Updated: Mar 27, 2024 2:02 PM
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The Effects of Climate Change

The effects of human-caused global warming are happening now, are irreversible for people alive today, and will worsen as long as humans add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

We already see effects scientists predicted, such as the loss of sea ice, melting glaciers and ice sheets, sea level rise, and more intense heat waves.
Scientists predict global temperature increases from human-made greenhouse gases will continue. Severe weather damage will also increase and intensify.

Earth Will Continue to Warm and the Effects Will Be Profound

Global climate change is not a future problem. Changes to Earth’s climate driven by increased human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are already having widespread effects on the environment: glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking, river and lake ice is breaking up earlier, plant and animal geographic ranges are shifting, and plants and trees are blooming sooner.

Effects that scientists had long predicted would result from global climate change are now occurring, such as sea ice loss, accelerated sea level rise, and longer, more intense heat waves.

The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Some changes (such as droughts, wildfires, and extreme rainfall) are happening faster than scientists previously assessed. In fact, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — the United Nations body established to assess the science related to climate change — modern humans have never before seen the observed changes in our global climate, and some of these changes are irreversible over the next hundreds to thousands of years.

Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for many decades, mainly due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities.

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment report, published in 2021, found that human emissions of heat-trapping gases have already warmed the climate by nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since 1850-1900. 1 The global average temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees C (about 3 degrees F) within the next few decades. These changes will affect all regions of Earth.

The severity of effects caused by climate change will depend on the path of future human activities. More greenhouse gas emissions will lead to more climate extremes and widespread damaging effects across our planet. However, those future effects depend on the total amount of carbon dioxide we emit. So, if we can reduce emissions, we may avoid some of the worst effects.

The scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss the brief, rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.

Here are some of the expected effects of global climate change on the United States, according to the Third and Fourth National Climate Assessment Reports:

Future effects of global climate change in the United States:

U.S. Sea Level Likely to Rise 1 to 6.6 Feet by 2100

Global sea level has risen about 8 inches (0.2 meters) since reliable record-keeping began in 1880. By 2100, scientists project that it will rise at least another foot (0.3 meters), but possibly as high as 6.6 feet (2 meters) in a high-emissions scenario. Sea level is rising because of added water from melting land ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms. Image credit: Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

Sun shining brightly over misty mountains.

Climate Changes Will Continue Through This Century and Beyond

Global climate is projected to continue warming over this century and beyond. Image credit: Khagani Hasanov, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0

Hurricanes Will Become Stronger and More Intense

Scientists project that hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates will increase as the climate continues to warm. Image credit: NASA

More Droughts and Heat Waves

Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves (periods of abnormally hot weather lasting days to weeks) are projected to become more intense, and cold waves less intense and less frequent. Image credit: NOAA

Longer Wildfire Season

Warming temperatures have extended and intensified wildfire season in the West, where long-term drought in the region has heightened the risk of fires. Scientists estimate that human-caused climate change has already doubled the area of forest burned in recent decades. By around 2050, the amount of land consumed by wildfires in Western states is projected to further increase by two to six times. Even in traditionally rainy regions like the Southeast, wildfires are projected to increase by about 30%.

Changes in Precipitation Patterns

Climate change is having an uneven effect on precipitation (rain and snow) in the United States, with some locations experiencing increased precipitation and flooding, while others suffer from drought. On average, more winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century. Image credit: Marvin Nauman/FEMA

Frost-Free Season (and Growing Season) will Lengthen

The length of the frost-free season, and the corresponding growing season, has been increasing since the 1980s, with the largest increases occurring in the western United States. Across the United States, the growing season is projected to continue to lengthen, which will affect ecosystems and agriculture.

Heatmap showing scorching temperatures in U.S. West

Global Temperatures Will Continue to Rise

Summer of 2023 was Earth's hottest summer on record, 0.41 degrees Fahrenheit (F) (0.23 degrees Celsius (C)) warmer than any other summer in NASA’s record and 2.1 degrees F (1.2 C) warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980. Image credit: NASA

Arctic Is Very Likely to Become Ice-Free

Sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean is expected to continue decreasing, and the Arctic Ocean will very likely become essentially ice-free in late summer if current projections hold. This change is expected to occur before mid-century.

U.S. Regional Effects

Climate change is bringing different types of challenges to each region of the country. Some of the current and future impacts are summarized below. These findings are from the Third 3 and Fourth 4 National Climate Assessment Reports, released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program .

Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours, and sea level rise pose increasing challenges to many aspects of life in the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised. Farmers can explore new crop options, but these adaptations are not cost- or risk-free. Moreover, adaptive capacity , which varies throughout the region, could be overwhelmed by a changing climate. Many states and cities are beginning to incorporate climate change into their planning.
Northwest. Changes in the timing of peak flows in rivers and streams are reducing water supplies and worsening competing demands for water. Sea level rise, erosion, flooding, risks to infrastructure, and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats. Increasing wildfire incidence and severity, heat waves, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are causing widespread forest die-off.
Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to the region’s economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect health, energy, agriculture, and more. Decreased water availability will have economic and environmental impacts.
Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours, and flooding will affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate change will also worsen a range of risks to the Great Lakes.
Southwest. Climate change has caused increased heat, drought, and insect outbreaks. In turn, these changes have made wildfires more numerous and severe. The warming climate has also caused a decline in water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, and triggered heat-related health impacts in cities. In coastal areas, flooding and erosion are additional concerns.

1. IPCC 2021, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis , the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

2. IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

3. USGCRP 2014, Third Climate Assessment .

4. USGCRP 2017, Fourth Climate Assessment .

Related Resources

A Degree of Difference

So, the Earth's average temperature has increased about 2 degrees Fahrenheit during the 20th century. What's the big deal?

What’s the difference between climate change and global warming?

“Global warming” refers to the long-term warming of the planet. “Climate change” encompasses global warming, but refers to the broader range of changes that are happening to our planet, including rising sea levels; shrinking mountain glaciers; accelerating ice melt in Greenland, Antarctica and the Arctic; and shifts in flower/plant blooming times.

Is it too late to prevent climate change?

Humans have caused major climate changes to happen already, and we have set in motion more changes still. However, if we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the rise in global temperatures would begin to flatten within a few years. Temperatures would then plateau but remain well-elevated for many, many centuries.

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A guide to University of Cincinnati resources on the topics of climate change and global warming. Home; Find Articles; Find Books; Web Resources; Theses and Dissertations; ... ETD (Electronic Thesis and Dissertation) help. The Graduate School ETD Informaton Web site provides an ETD time line, page order and formatting information and a FAQ page.
The Effects of Climate Change
Global climate change is not a future problem. Changes to Earth's climate driven by increased human emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are already having widespread effects on the environment: glaciers and ice sheets are shrinking, river and lake ice is breaking up earlier, plant and animal geographic ranges are shifting, and plants and trees are blooming sooner.

Top 100 Climate Change Topics To Write About