what is a conclusion research

How to Write a Conclusion for Research Papers (with Examples)

The conclusion of a research paper is a crucial section that plays a significant role in the overall impact and effectiveness of your research paper. However, this is also the section that typically receives less attention compared to the introduction and the body of the paper. The conclusion serves to provide a concise summary of the key findings, their significance, their implications, and a sense of closure to the study. Discussing how can the findings be applied in real-world scenarios or inform policy, practice, or decision-making is especially valuable to practitioners and policymakers. The research paper conclusion also provides researchers with clear insights and valuable information for their own work, which they can then build on and contribute to the advancement of knowledge in the field.

The research paper conclusion should explain the significance of your findings within the broader context of your field. It restates how your results contribute to the existing body of knowledge and whether they confirm or challenge existing theories or hypotheses. Also, by identifying unanswered questions or areas requiring further investigation, your awareness of the broader research landscape can be demonstrated.

Remember to tailor the research paper conclusion to the specific needs and interests of your intended audience, which may include researchers, practitioners, policymakers, or a combination of these.

Table of Contents

What is a conclusion in a research paper, summarizing conclusion, editorial conclusion, externalizing conclusion, importance of a good research paper conclusion, how to write a conclusion for your research paper, research paper conclusion examples, frequently asked questions.

A conclusion in a research paper is the final section where you summarize and wrap up your research, presenting the key findings and insights derived from your study. The research paper conclusion is not the place to introduce new information or data that was not discussed in the main body of the paper. When working on how to conclude a research paper, remember to stick to summarizing and interpreting existing content. The research paper conclusion serves the following purposes: 1

• Warn readers of the possible consequences of not attending to the problem.
• Recommend specific course(s) of action.
• Restate key ideas to drive home the ultimate point of your research paper.
• Provide a “take-home” message that you want the readers to remember about your study.

Types of conclusions for research papers

In research papers, the conclusion provides closure to the reader. The type of research paper conclusion you choose depends on the nature of your study, your goals, and your target audience. I provide you with three common types of conclusions:

A summarizing conclusion is the most common type of conclusion in research papers. It involves summarizing the main points, reiterating the research question, and restating the significance of the findings. This common type of research paper conclusion is used across different disciplines.

An editorial conclusion is less common but can be used in research papers that are focused on proposing or advocating for a particular viewpoint or policy. It involves presenting a strong editorial or opinion based on the research findings and offering recommendations or calls to action.

An externalizing conclusion is a type of conclusion that extends the research beyond the scope of the paper by suggesting potential future research directions or discussing the broader implications of the findings. This type of conclusion is often used in more theoretical or exploratory research papers.

The conclusion in a research paper serves several important purposes:

• Offers Implications and Recommendations : Your research paper conclusion is an excellent place to discuss the broader implications of your research and suggest potential areas for further study. It’s also an opportunity to offer practical recommendations based on your findings.
• Provides Closure : A good research paper conclusion provides a sense of closure to your paper. It should leave the reader with a feeling that they have reached the end of a well-structured and thought-provoking research project.
• Leaves a Lasting Impression : Writing a well-crafted research paper conclusion leaves a lasting impression on your readers. It’s your final opportunity to leave them with a new idea, a call to action, or a memorable quote.

Writing a strong conclusion for your research paper is essential to leave a lasting impression on your readers. Here’s a step-by-step process to help you create and know what to put in the conclusion of a research paper: 2

• Research Statement : Begin your research paper conclusion by restating your research statement. This reminds the reader of the main point you’ve been trying to prove throughout your paper. Keep it concise and clear.
• Key Points : Summarize the main arguments and key points you’ve made in your paper. Avoid introducing new information in the research paper conclusion. Instead, provide a concise overview of what you’ve discussed in the body of your paper.
• Address the Research Questions : If your research paper is based on specific research questions or hypotheses, briefly address whether you’ve answered them or achieved your research goals. Discuss the significance of your findings in this context.
• Significance : Highlight the importance of your research and its relevance in the broader context. Explain why your findings matter and how they contribute to the existing knowledge in your field.
• Implications : Explore the practical or theoretical implications of your research. How might your findings impact future research, policy, or real-world applications? Consider the “so what?” question.
• Future Research : Offer suggestions for future research in your area. What questions or aspects remain unanswered or warrant further investigation? This shows that your work opens the door for future exploration.
• Closing Thought : Conclude your research paper conclusion with a thought-provoking or memorable statement. This can leave a lasting impression on your readers and wrap up your paper effectively. Avoid introducing new information or arguments here.
• Proofread and Revise : Carefully proofread your conclusion for grammar, spelling, and clarity. Ensure that your ideas flow smoothly and that your conclusion is coherent and well-structured.

Remember that a well-crafted research paper conclusion is a reflection of the strength of your research and your ability to communicate its significance effectively. It should leave a lasting impression on your readers and tie together all the threads of your paper. Now you know how to start the conclusion of a research paper and what elements to include to make it impactful, let’s look at a research paper conclusion sample.

The research paper conclusion is a crucial part of your paper as it provides the final opportunity to leave a strong impression on your readers. In the research paper conclusion, summarize the main points of your research paper by restating your research statement, highlighting the most important findings, addressing the research questions or objectives, explaining the broader context of the study, discussing the significance of your findings, providing recommendations if applicable, and emphasizing the takeaway message. The main purpose of the conclusion is to remind the reader of the main point or argument of your paper and to provide a clear and concise summary of the key findings and their implications. All these elements should feature on your list of what to put in the conclusion of a research paper to create a strong final statement for your work.

A strong conclusion is a critical component of a research paper, as it provides an opportunity to wrap up your arguments, reiterate your main points, and leave a lasting impression on your readers. Here are the key elements of a strong research paper conclusion: 1. Conciseness : A research paper conclusion should be concise and to the point. It should not introduce new information or ideas that were not discussed in the body of the paper. 2. Summarization : The research paper conclusion should be comprehensive enough to give the reader a clear understanding of the research’s main contributions. 3 . Relevance : Ensure that the information included in the research paper conclusion is directly relevant to the research paper’s main topic and objectives; avoid unnecessary details. 4 . Connection to the Introduction : A well-structured research paper conclusion often revisits the key points made in the introduction and shows how the research has addressed the initial questions or objectives. 5. Emphasis : Highlight the significance and implications of your research. Why is your study important? What are the broader implications or applications of your findings? 6 . Call to Action : Include a call to action or a recommendation for future research or action based on your findings.

The length of a research paper conclusion can vary depending on several factors, including the overall length of the paper, the complexity of the research, and the specific journal requirements. While there is no strict rule for the length of a conclusion, but it’s generally advisable to keep it relatively short. A typical research paper conclusion might be around 5-10% of the paper’s total length. For example, if your paper is 10 pages long, the conclusion might be roughly half a page to one page in length.

In general, you do not need to include citations in the research paper conclusion. Citations are typically reserved for the body of the paper to support your arguments and provide evidence for your claims. However, there may be some exceptions to this rule: 1. If you are drawing a direct quote or paraphrasing a specific source in your research paper conclusion, you should include a citation to give proper credit to the original author. 2. If your conclusion refers to or discusses specific research, data, or sources that are crucial to the overall argument, citations can be included to reinforce your conclusion’s validity.

The conclusion of a research paper serves several important purposes: 1. Summarize the Key Points 2. Reinforce the Main Argument 3. Provide Closure 4. Offer Insights or Implications 5. Engage the Reader. 6. Reflect on Limitations

Remember that the primary purpose of the research paper conclusion is to leave a lasting impression on the reader, reinforcing the key points and providing closure to your research. It’s often the last part of the paper that the reader will see, so it should be strong and well-crafted.

• Makar, G., Foltz, C., Lendner, M., & Vaccaro, A. R. (2018). How to write effective discussion and conclusion sections. Clinical spine surgery, 31(8), 345-346.
• Bunton, D. (2005). The structure of PhD conclusion chapters.  Journal of English for academic purposes ,  4 (3), 207-224.

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Home » Research Paper Conclusion – Writing Guide and Examples

Research Paper Conclusion – Writing Guide and Examples

Table of Contents

Research Paper Conclusion

Definition:

A research paper conclusion is the final section of a research paper that summarizes the key findings, significance, and implications of the research. It is the writer’s opportunity to synthesize the information presented in the paper, draw conclusions, and make recommendations for future research or actions.

The conclusion should provide a clear and concise summary of the research paper, reiterating the research question or problem, the main results, and the significance of the findings. It should also discuss the limitations of the study and suggest areas for further research.

Parts of Research Paper Conclusion

The parts of a research paper conclusion typically include:

Restatement of the Thesis

The conclusion should begin by restating the thesis statement from the introduction in a different way. This helps to remind the reader of the main argument or purpose of the research.

Summary of Key Findings

The conclusion should summarize the main findings of the research, highlighting the most important results and conclusions. This section should be brief and to the point.

Implications and Significance

In this section, the researcher should explain the implications and significance of the research findings. This may include discussing the potential impact on the field or industry, highlighting new insights or knowledge gained, or pointing out areas for future research.

Limitations and Recommendations

It is important to acknowledge any limitations or weaknesses of the research and to make recommendations for how these could be addressed in future studies. This shows that the researcher is aware of the potential limitations of their work and is committed to improving the quality of research in their field.

Concluding Statement

The conclusion should end with a strong concluding statement that leaves a lasting impression on the reader. This could be a call to action, a recommendation for further research, or a final thought on the topic.

How to Write Research Paper Conclusion

Here are some steps you can follow to write an effective research paper conclusion:

• Restate the research problem or question: Begin by restating the research problem or question that you aimed to answer in your research. This will remind the reader of the purpose of your study.
• Summarize the main points: Summarize the key findings and results of your research. This can be done by highlighting the most important aspects of your research and the evidence that supports them.
• Discuss the implications: Discuss the implications of your findings for the research area and any potential applications of your research. You should also mention any limitations of your research that may affect the interpretation of your findings.
• Provide a conclusion : Provide a concise conclusion that summarizes the main points of your paper and emphasizes the significance of your research. This should be a strong and clear statement that leaves a lasting impression on the reader.
• Offer suggestions for future research: Lastly, offer suggestions for future research that could build on your findings and contribute to further advancements in the field.

Remember that the conclusion should be brief and to the point, while still effectively summarizing the key findings and implications of your research.

Example of Research Paper Conclusion

Here’s an example of a research paper conclusion:

Conclusion :

In conclusion, our study aimed to investigate the relationship between social media use and mental health among college students. Our findings suggest that there is a significant association between social media use and increased levels of anxiety and depression among college students. This highlights the need for increased awareness and education about the potential negative effects of social media use on mental health, particularly among college students.

Despite the limitations of our study, such as the small sample size and self-reported data, our findings have important implications for future research and practice. Future studies should aim to replicate our findings in larger, more diverse samples, and investigate the potential mechanisms underlying the association between social media use and mental health. In addition, interventions should be developed to promote healthy social media use among college students, such as mindfulness-based approaches and social media detox programs.

Overall, our study contributes to the growing body of research on the impact of social media on mental health, and highlights the importance of addressing this issue in the context of higher education. By raising awareness and promoting healthy social media use among college students, we can help to reduce the negative impact of social media on mental health and improve the well-being of young adults.

Purpose of Research Paper Conclusion

The purpose of a research paper conclusion is to provide a summary and synthesis of the key findings, significance, and implications of the research presented in the paper. The conclusion serves as the final opportunity for the writer to convey their message and leave a lasting impression on the reader.

The conclusion should restate the research problem or question, summarize the main results of the research, and explain their significance. It should also acknowledge the limitations of the study and suggest areas for future research or action.

Overall, the purpose of the conclusion is to provide a sense of closure to the research paper and to emphasize the importance of the research and its potential impact. It should leave the reader with a clear understanding of the main findings and why they matter. The conclusion serves as the writer’s opportunity to showcase their contribution to the field and to inspire further research and action.

When to Write Research Paper Conclusion

The conclusion of a research paper should be written after the body of the paper has been completed. It should not be written until the writer has thoroughly analyzed and interpreted their findings and has written a complete and cohesive discussion of the research.

Before writing the conclusion, the writer should review their research paper and consider the key points that they want to convey to the reader. They should also review the research question, hypotheses, and methodology to ensure that they have addressed all of the necessary components of the research.

Once the writer has a clear understanding of the main findings and their significance, they can begin writing the conclusion. The conclusion should be written in a clear and concise manner, and should reiterate the main points of the research while also providing insights and recommendations for future research or action.

Characteristics of Research Paper Conclusion

The characteristics of a research paper conclusion include:

• Clear and concise: The conclusion should be written in a clear and concise manner, summarizing the key findings and their significance.
• Comprehensive: The conclusion should address all of the main points of the research paper, including the research question or problem, the methodology, the main results, and their implications.
• Future-oriented : The conclusion should provide insights and recommendations for future research or action, based on the findings of the research.
• Impressive : The conclusion should leave a lasting impression on the reader, emphasizing the importance of the research and its potential impact.
• Objective : The conclusion should be based on the evidence presented in the research paper, and should avoid personal biases or opinions.
• Unique : The conclusion should be unique to the research paper and should not simply repeat information from the introduction or body of the paper.

Advantages of Research Paper Conclusion

The advantages of a research paper conclusion include:

• Summarizing the key findings : The conclusion provides a summary of the main findings of the research, making it easier for the reader to understand the key points of the study.
• Emphasizing the significance of the research: The conclusion emphasizes the importance of the research and its potential impact, making it more likely that readers will take the research seriously and consider its implications.
• Providing recommendations for future research or action : The conclusion suggests practical recommendations for future research or action, based on the findings of the study.
• Providing closure to the research paper : The conclusion provides a sense of closure to the research paper, tying together the different sections of the paper and leaving a lasting impression on the reader.
• Demonstrating the writer’s contribution to the field : The conclusion provides the writer with an opportunity to showcase their contribution to the field and to inspire further research and action.

Limitations of Research Paper Conclusion

While the conclusion of a research paper has many advantages, it also has some limitations that should be considered, including:

• I nability to address all aspects of the research: Due to the limited space available in the conclusion, it may not be possible to address all aspects of the research in detail.
• Subjectivity : While the conclusion should be objective, it may be influenced by the writer’s personal biases or opinions.
• Lack of new information: The conclusion should not introduce new information that has not been discussed in the body of the research paper.
• Lack of generalizability: The conclusions drawn from the research may not be applicable to other contexts or populations, limiting the generalizability of the study.
• Misinterpretation by the reader: The reader may misinterpret the conclusions drawn from the research, leading to a misunderstanding of the findings.

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The conclusion is intended to help the reader understand why your research should matter to them after they have finished reading the paper. A conclusion is not merely a summary of the main topics covered or a re-statement of your research problem, but a synthesis of key points and, if applicable, where you recommend new areas for future research. For most college-level research papers, one or two well-developed paragraphs is sufficient for a conclusion, although in some cases, more paragraphs may be required in summarizing key findings and their significance.

Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Conclusions. The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University.

Importance of a Good Conclusion

A well-written conclusion provides you with important opportunities to demonstrate to the reader your understanding of the research problem. These include:

• Presenting the last word on the issues you raised in your paper . Just as the introduction gives a first impression to your reader, the conclusion offers a chance to leave a lasting impression. Do this, for example, by highlighting key findings in your analysis that advance new understanding about the research problem, that are unusual or unexpected, or that have important implications applied to practice.
• Summarizing your thoughts and conveying the larger significance of your study . The conclusion is an opportunity to succinctly re-emphasize  the "So What?" question by placing the study within the context of how your research advances past research about the topic.
• Identifying how a gap in the literature has been addressed . The conclusion can be where you describe how a previously identified gap in the literature [described in your literature review section] has been filled by your research.
• Demonstrating the importance of your ideas . Don't be shy. The conclusion offers you the opportunity to elaborate on the impact and significance of your findings. This is particularly important if your study approached examining the research problem from an unusual or innovative perspective.
• Introducing possible new or expanded ways of thinking about the research problem . This does not refer to introducing new information [which should be avoided], but to offer new insight and creative approaches for framing or contextualizing the research problem based on the results of your study.

Bunton, David. “The Structure of PhD Conclusion Chapters.” Journal of English for Academic Purposes 4 (July 2005): 207–224; Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Kretchmer, Paul. Twelve Steps to Writing an Effective Conclusion. San Francisco Edit, 2003-2008; Conclusions. The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University; Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8.

Structure and Writing Style

I.  General Rules

The function of your paper's conclusion is to restate the main argument . It reminds the reader of the strengths of your main argument(s) and reiterates the most important evidence supporting those argument(s). Do this by stating clearly the context, background, and necessity of pursuing the research problem you investigated in relation to an issue, controversy, or a gap found in the literature. Make sure, however, that your conclusion is not simply a repetitive summary of the findings. This reduces the impact of the argument(s) you have developed in your essay.

When writing the conclusion to your paper, follow these general rules:

• Present your conclusions in clear, simple language. Re-state the purpose of your study, then describe how your findings differ or support those of other studies and why [i.e., what were the unique or new contributions your study made to the overall research about your topic?].
• Do not simply reiterate your findings or the discussion of your results. Provide a synthesis of arguments presented in the paper to show how these converge to address the research problem and the overall objectives of your study.
• Indicate opportunities for future research if you haven't already done so in the discussion section of your paper. Highlighting the need for further research provides the reader with evidence that you have an in-depth awareness of the research problem and that further investigations should take place.

Consider the following points to help ensure your conclusion is presented well:

• If the argument or purpose of your paper is complex, you may need to summarize the argument for your reader.
• If, prior to your conclusion, you have not yet explained the significance of your findings or if you are proceeding inductively, use the end of your paper to describe your main points and explain their significance.
• Move from a detailed to a general level of consideration that returns the topic to the context provided by the introduction or within a new context that emerges from the data. 

The conclusion also provides a place for you to persuasively and succinctly restate the research problem, given that the reader has now been presented with all the information about the topic . Depending on the discipline you are writing in, the concluding paragraph may contain your reflections on the evidence presented. However, the nature of being introspective about the research you have conducted will depend on the topic and whether your professor wants you to express your observations in this way.

NOTE : If asked to think introspectively about the topics, do not delve into idle speculation. Being introspective means looking within yourself as an author to try and understand an issue more deeply, not to guess at possible outcomes or make up scenarios not supported by the evidence.

II.  Developing a Compelling Conclusion

Although an effective conclusion needs to be clear and succinct, it does not need to be written passively or lack a compelling narrative. Strategies to help you move beyond merely summarizing the key points of your research paper may include any of the following strategies:

• If your essay deals with a critical, contemporary problem, warn readers of the possible consequences of not attending to the problem proactively.
• Recommend a specific course or courses of action that, if adopted, could address a specific problem in practice or in the development of new knowledge.
• Cite a relevant quotation or expert opinion already noted in your paper in order to lend authority and support to the conclusion(s) you have reached [a good place to look is research from your literature review].
• Explain the consequences of your research in a way that elicits action or demonstrates urgency in seeking change.
• Restate a key statistic, fact, or visual image to emphasize the most important finding of your paper.
• If your discipline encourages personal reflection, illustrate your concluding point by drawing from your own life experiences.
• Return to an anecdote, an example, or a quotation that you presented in your introduction, but add further insight derived from the findings of your study; use your interpretation of results to recast it in new or important ways.
• Provide a "take-home" message in the form of a succinct, declarative statement that you want the reader to remember about your study.

III. Problems to Avoid

Failure to be concise Your conclusion section should be concise and to the point. Conclusions that are too lengthy often have unnecessary information in them. The conclusion is not the place for details about your methodology or results. Although you should give a summary of what was learned from your research, this summary should be relatively brief, since the emphasis in the conclusion is on the implications, evaluations, insights, and other forms of analysis that you make. Strategies for writing concisely can be found here .

Failure to comment on larger, more significant issues In the introduction, your task was to move from the general [the field of study] to the specific [the research problem]. However, in the conclusion, your task is to move from a specific discussion [your research problem] back to a general discussion [i.e., how your research contributes new understanding or fills an important gap in the literature]. In short, the conclusion is where you should place your research within a larger context [visualize your paper as an hourglass--start with a broad introduction and review of the literature, move to the specific analysis and discussion, conclude with a broad summary of the study's implications and significance].

Failure to reveal problems and negative results Negative aspects of the research process should never be ignored. These are problems, deficiencies, or challenges encountered during your study should be summarized as a way of qualifying your overall conclusions. If you encountered negative or unintended results [i.e., findings that are validated outside the research context in which they were generated], you must report them in the results section and discuss their implications in the discussion section of your paper. In the conclusion, use your summary of the negative results as an opportunity to explain their possible significance and/or how they may form the basis for future research.

Failure to provide a clear summary of what was learned In order to be able to discuss how your research fits within your field of study [and possibly the world at large], you need to summarize briefly and succinctly how it contributes to new knowledge or a new understanding about the research problem. This element of your conclusion may be only a few sentences long.

Failure to match the objectives of your research Often research objectives in the social sciences change while the research is being carried out. This is not a problem unless you forget to go back and refine the original objectives in your introduction. As these changes emerge they must be documented so that they accurately reflect what you were trying to accomplish in your research [not what you thought you might accomplish when you began].

Resist the urge to apologize If you've immersed yourself in studying the research problem, you presumably should know a good deal about it [perhaps even more than your professor!]. Nevertheless, by the time you have finished writing, you may be having some doubts about what you have produced. Repress those doubts! Don't undermine your authority by saying something like, "This is just one approach to examining this problem; there may be other, much better approaches that...." The overall tone of your conclusion should convey confidence to the reader.

Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8; Concluding Paragraphs. College Writing Center at Meramec. St. Louis Community College; Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Conclusions. The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University; Freedman, Leora  and Jerry Plotnick. Introductions and Conclusions. The Lab Report. University College Writing Centre. University of Toronto; Leibensperger, Summer. Draft Your Conclusion. Academic Center, the University of Houston-Victoria, 2003; Make Your Last Words Count. The Writer’s Handbook. Writing Center. University of Wisconsin Madison; Miquel, Fuster-Marquez and Carmen Gregori-Signes. “Chapter Six: ‘Last but Not Least:’ Writing the Conclusion of Your Paper.” In Writing an Applied Linguistics Thesis or Dissertation: A Guide to Presenting Empirical Research . John Bitchener, editor. (Basingstoke,UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), pp. 93-105; Tips for Writing a Good Conclusion. Writing@CSU. Colorado State University; Kretchmer, Paul. Twelve Steps to Writing an Effective Conclusion. San Francisco Edit, 2003-2008; Writing Conclusions. Writing Tutorial Services, Center for Innovative Teaching and Learning. Indiana University; Writing: Considering Structure and Organization. Institute for Writing Rhetoric. Dartmouth College.

Writing Tip

Don't Belabor the Obvious!

Avoid phrases like "in conclusion...," "in summary...," or "in closing...." These phrases can be useful, even welcome, in oral presentations. But readers can see by the tell-tale section heading and number of pages remaining to read, when an essay is about to end. You'll irritate your readers if you belabor the obvious.

Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8.

Another Writing Tip

New Insight, Not New Information!

Don't surprise the reader with new information in your conclusion that was never referenced anywhere else in the paper and, as such, the conclusion rarely has citations to sources. If you have new information to present, add it to the discussion or other appropriate section of the paper. Note that, although no actual new information is introduced, the conclusion, along with the discussion section, is where you offer your most "original" contributions in the paper; the conclusion is where you describe the value of your research, demonstrate that you understand the material that you’ve presented, and locate your findings within the larger context of scholarship on the topic, including describing how your research contributes new insights or valuable insight to that scholarship.

Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8; Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina.

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OASIS: Writing Center

Writing a paper: conclusions, writing a conclusion.

A conclusion is an important part of the paper; it provides closure for the reader while reminding the reader of the contents and importance of the paper. It accomplishes this by stepping back from the specifics in order to view the bigger picture of the document. In other words, it is reminding the reader of the main argument. For most course papers, it is usually one paragraph that simply and succinctly restates the main ideas and arguments, pulling everything together to help clarify the thesis of the paper. A conclusion does not introduce new ideas; instead, it should clarify the intent and importance of the paper. It can also suggest possible future research on the topic.

An Easy Checklist for Writing a Conclusion

It is important to remind the reader of the thesis of the paper so he is reminded of the argument and solutions you proposed.

Think of the main points as puzzle pieces, and the conclusion is where they all fit together to create a bigger picture. The reader should walk away with the bigger picture in mind.

Make sure that the paper places its findings in the context of real social change.

Make sure the reader has a distinct sense that the paper has come to an end. It is important to not leave the reader hanging. (You don’t want her to have flip-the-page syndrome, where the reader turns the page, expecting the paper to continue. The paper should naturally come to an end.)

No new ideas should be introduced in the conclusion. It is simply a review of the material that is already present in the paper. The only new idea would be the suggesting of a direction for future research.

Conclusion Example

As addressed in my analysis of recent research, the advantages of a later starting time for high school students significantly outweigh the disadvantages. A later starting time would allow teens more time to sleep--something that is important for their physical and mental health--and ultimately improve their academic performance and behavior. The added transportation costs that result from this change can be absorbed through energy savings. The beneficial effects on the students’ academic performance and behavior validate this decision, but its effect on student motivation is still unknown. I would encourage an in-depth look at the reactions of students to such a change. This sort of study would help determine the actual effects of a later start time on the time management and sleep habits of students.

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Conclusions

What this handout is about.

This handout will explain the functions of conclusions, offer strategies for writing effective ones, help you evaluate conclusions you’ve drafted, and suggest approaches to avoid.

About conclusions

Introductions and conclusions can be difficult to write, but they’re worth investing time in. They can have a significant influence on a reader’s experience of your paper.

Just as your introduction acts as a bridge that transports your readers from their own lives into the “place” of your analysis, your conclusion can provide a bridge to help your readers make the transition back to their daily lives. Such a conclusion will help them see why all your analysis and information should matter to them after they put the paper down.

Your conclusion is your chance to have the last word on the subject. The conclusion allows you to have the final say on the issues you have raised in your paper, to synthesize your thoughts, to demonstrate the importance of your ideas, and to propel your reader to a new view of the subject. It is also your opportunity to make a good final impression and to end on a positive note.

Your conclusion can go beyond the confines of the assignment. The conclusion pushes beyond the boundaries of the prompt and allows you to consider broader issues, make new connections, and elaborate on the significance of your findings.

Your conclusion should make your readers glad they read your paper. Your conclusion gives your reader something to take away that will help them see things differently or appreciate your topic in personally relevant ways. It can suggest broader implications that will not only interest your reader, but also enrich your reader’s life in some way. It is your gift to the reader.

Strategies for writing an effective conclusion

One or more of the following strategies may help you write an effective conclusion:

• Play the “So What” Game. If you’re stuck and feel like your conclusion isn’t saying anything new or interesting, ask a friend to read it with you. Whenever you make a statement from your conclusion, ask the friend to say, “So what?” or “Why should anybody care?” Then ponder that question and answer it. Here’s how it might go: You: Basically, I’m just saying that education was important to Douglass. Friend: So what? You: Well, it was important because it was a key to him feeling like a free and equal citizen. Friend: Why should anybody care? You: That’s important because plantation owners tried to keep slaves from being educated so that they could maintain control. When Douglass obtained an education, he undermined that control personally. You can also use this strategy on your own, asking yourself “So What?” as you develop your ideas or your draft.
• Return to the theme or themes in the introduction. This strategy brings the reader full circle. For example, if you begin by describing a scenario, you can end with the same scenario as proof that your essay is helpful in creating a new understanding. You may also refer to the introductory paragraph by using key words or parallel concepts and images that you also used in the introduction.
• Synthesize, don’t summarize. Include a brief summary of the paper’s main points, but don’t simply repeat things that were in your paper. Instead, show your reader how the points you made and the support and examples you used fit together. Pull it all together.
• Include a provocative insight or quotation from the research or reading you did for your paper.
• Propose a course of action, a solution to an issue, or questions for further study. This can redirect your reader’s thought process and help them to apply your info and ideas to their own life or to see the broader implications.
• Point to broader implications. For example, if your paper examines the Greensboro sit-ins or another event in the Civil Rights Movement, you could point out its impact on the Civil Rights Movement as a whole. A paper about the style of writer Virginia Woolf could point to her influence on other writers or on later feminists.

Strategies to avoid

• Beginning with an unnecessary, overused phrase such as “in conclusion,” “in summary,” or “in closing.” Although these phrases can work in speeches, they come across as wooden and trite in writing.
• Stating the thesis for the very first time in the conclusion.
• Introducing a new idea or subtopic in your conclusion.
• Ending with a rephrased thesis statement without any substantive changes.
• Making sentimental, emotional appeals that are out of character with the rest of an analytical paper.
• Including evidence (quotations, statistics, etc.) that should be in the body of the paper.

Four kinds of ineffective conclusions

• The “That’s My Story and I’m Sticking to It” Conclusion. This conclusion just restates the thesis and is usually painfully short. It does not push the ideas forward. People write this kind of conclusion when they can’t think of anything else to say. Example: In conclusion, Frederick Douglass was, as we have seen, a pioneer in American education, proving that education was a major force for social change with regard to slavery.
• The “Sherlock Holmes” Conclusion. Sometimes writers will state the thesis for the very first time in the conclusion. You might be tempted to use this strategy if you don’t want to give everything away too early in your paper. You may think it would be more dramatic to keep the reader in the dark until the end and then “wow” them with your main idea, as in a Sherlock Holmes mystery. The reader, however, does not expect a mystery, but an analytical discussion of your topic in an academic style, with the main argument (thesis) stated up front. Example: (After a paper that lists numerous incidents from the book but never says what these incidents reveal about Douglass and his views on education): So, as the evidence above demonstrates, Douglass saw education as a way to undermine the slaveholders’ power and also an important step toward freedom.
• The “America the Beautiful”/”I Am Woman”/”We Shall Overcome” Conclusion. This kind of conclusion usually draws on emotion to make its appeal, but while this emotion and even sentimentality may be very heartfelt, it is usually out of character with the rest of an analytical paper. A more sophisticated commentary, rather than emotional praise, would be a more fitting tribute to the topic. Example: Because of the efforts of fine Americans like Frederick Douglass, countless others have seen the shining beacon of light that is education. His example was a torch that lit the way for others. Frederick Douglass was truly an American hero.
• The “Grab Bag” Conclusion. This kind of conclusion includes extra information that the writer found or thought of but couldn’t integrate into the main paper. You may find it hard to leave out details that you discovered after hours of research and thought, but adding random facts and bits of evidence at the end of an otherwise-well-organized essay can just create confusion. Example: In addition to being an educational pioneer, Frederick Douglass provides an interesting case study for masculinity in the American South. He also offers historians an interesting glimpse into slave resistance when he confronts Covey, the overseer. His relationships with female relatives reveal the importance of family in the slave community.

Works consulted

We consulted these works while writing this handout. This is not a comprehensive list of resources on the handout’s topic, and we encourage you to do your own research to find additional publications. Please do not use this list as a model for the format of your own reference list, as it may not match the citation style you are using. For guidance on formatting citations, please see the UNC Libraries citation tutorial . We revise these tips periodically and welcome feedback.

Douglass, Frederick. 1995. Narrative of the Life of Frederick Douglass, an American Slave, Written by Himself. New York: Dover.

Hamilton College. n.d. “Conclusions.” Writing Center. Accessed June 14, 2019. https://www.hamilton.edu//academics/centers/writing/writing-resources/conclusions .

Holewa, Randa. 2004. “Strategies for Writing a Conclusion.” LEO: Literacy Education Online. Last updated February 19, 2004. https://leo.stcloudstate.edu/acadwrite/conclude.html.

You may reproduce it for non-commercial use if you use the entire handout and attribute the source: The Writing Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Make a Gift

In a short paper—even a research paper—you don’t need to provide an exhaustive summary as part of your conclusion. But you do need to make some kind of transition between your final body paragraph and your concluding paragraph. This may come in the form of a few sentences of summary. Or it may come in the form of a sentence that brings your readers back to your thesis or main idea and reminds your readers where you began and how far you have traveled.

So, for example, in a paper about the relationship between ADHD and rejection sensitivity, Vanessa Roser begins by introducing readers to the fact that researchers have studied the relationship between the two conditions and then provides her explanation of that relationship. Here’s her thesis: “While socialization may indeed be an important factor in RS, I argue that individuals with ADHD may also possess a neurological predisposition to RS that is exacerbated by the differing executive and emotional regulation characteristic of ADHD.”

In her final paragraph, Roser reminds us of where she started by echoing her thesis: “This literature demonstrates that, as with many other conditions, ADHD and RS share a delicately intertwined pattern of neurological similarities that is rooted in the innate biology of an individual’s mind, a connection that cannot be explained in full by the behavioral mediation hypothesis.”  

Highlight the “so what”  

At the beginning of your paper, you explain to your readers what’s at stake—why they should care about the argument you’re making. In your conclusion, you can bring readers back to those stakes by reminding them why your argument is important in the first place. You can also draft a few sentences that put those stakes into a new or broader context.

In the conclusion to her paper about ADHD and RS, Roser echoes the stakes she established in her introduction—that research into connections between ADHD and RS has led to contradictory results, raising questions about the “behavioral mediation hypothesis.”

She writes, “as with many other conditions, ADHD and RS share a delicately intertwined pattern of neurological similarities that is rooted in the innate biology of an individual’s mind, a connection that cannot be explained in full by the behavioral mediation hypothesis.”  

Leave your readers with the “now what”  

After the “what” and the “so what,” you should leave your reader with some final thoughts. If you have written a strong introduction, your readers will know why you have been arguing what you have been arguing—and why they should care. And if you’ve made a good case for your thesis, then your readers should be in a position to see things in a new way, understand new questions, or be ready for something that they weren’t ready for before they read your paper.

In her conclusion, Roser offers two “now what” statements. First, she explains that it is important to recognize that the flawed behavioral mediation hypothesis “seems to place a degree of fault on the individual. It implies that individuals with ADHD must have elicited such frequent or intense rejection by virtue of their inadequate social skills, erasing the possibility that they may simply possess a natural sensitivity to emotion.” She then highlights the broader implications for treatment of people with ADHD, noting that recognizing the actual connection between rejection sensitivity and ADHD “has profound implications for understanding how individuals with ADHD might best be treated in educational settings, by counselors, family, peers, or even society as a whole.”

To find your own “now what” for your essay’s conclusion, try asking yourself these questions:

• What can my readers now understand, see in a new light, or grapple with that they would not have understood in the same way before reading my paper? Are we a step closer to understanding a larger phenomenon or to understanding why what was at stake is so important?  
• What questions can I now raise that would not have made sense at the beginning of my paper? Questions for further research? Other ways that this topic could be approached?  
• Are there other applications for my research? Could my questions be asked about different data in a different context? Could I use my methods to answer a different question?  
• What action should be taken in light of this argument? What action do I predict will be taken or could lead to a solution?  
• What larger context might my argument be a part of?  

What to avoid in your conclusion  

• a complete restatement of all that you have said in your paper.  
• a substantial counterargument that you do not have space to refute; you should introduce counterarguments before your conclusion.  
• an apology for what you have not said. If you need to explain the scope of your paper, you should do this sooner—but don’t apologize for what you have not discussed in your paper.  
• fake transitions like “in conclusion” that are followed by sentences that aren’t actually conclusions. (“In conclusion, I have now demonstrated that my thesis is correct.”)
• picture_as_pdf Conclusions

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How to write a conclusion for a research paper

Research paper conclusions provide closure for your paper—but they can be difficult to write. What should you include? In this post, we discuss how to write a conclusion for a research paper.

What is a conclusion?

The conclusion to a research paper sums of your main argument and provides closure for your reader. It will return to your thesis statement and revisit the ways that you proved it.

The content and format of your conclusion will ultimately differ depending on the subject of your paper. Some fields have more specific expectations for what needs to be included.

You should always check your assignment’s guidelines or rubric to ensure that you understand what your instructor expects in a research paper conclusion.

How to write a conclusion

In this section, we break down the main parts of a conclusion and provide tips on how to approach each one.

The opening of a conclusion

The point of a conclusion’s opening statement is to transition from the main body of your paper to the concluding section. Some types of research papers include section headers that label each part of the paper. In these cases, your reader will be able to clearly see that you’re about to conclude.

In most other cases, begin your conclusion with a signal that indicates that you’re moving into the concluding section of your paper. For instance, you might start your conclusion by stating “in conclusion,” “to conclude,” or “in sum.”

What you can include in a conclusion

Although you shouldn’t include any new data or evidence in a conclusion, you can include suggestions for further research, insights about how your research could be applied in different contexts, or a course of action.

The bulk of the conclusion should synthesize—not summarize—the main points of your paper. If your introduction included historical information or an anecdote, return to that information now.

Your conclusion should also answer the “so what” question: why is this research relevant? Who should care about your argument and why?

The ending of a conclusion

Finally, you’ll want to end your conclusion with a closing statement that wraps up your concluding section (and your paper as a whole).

Tips for writing a conclusion

1. don’t include new data or evidence.

Your conclusion should provide closure to your paper, so introducing new information is not appropriate and will likely confuse your reader.

2. Don’t simply restate your thesis

You should never simply copy and paste your thesis statement into your conclusion. Instead, revisit your thesis in light of the evidence and analysis that you put forth in the main body of your paper.

3. Provide closure for your reader

A strong conclusion provides closure for the reader by synthesizing the main points of the paper and putting to rest any questions that the reader may have during the process of reading. The best way to test if your conclusion provides closure is to ask someone to read your paper.

4. Make suggestions for further research

While conclusions should not introduce new data or arguments, they can include suggestions for further research. A single research paper never covers everything—there are always possible new angles and approaches.

Next steps for a successful research paper

Once you’ve written your conclusion, you should review what you’ve written and make revisions, as needed. Then, double-check that you’ve cited all borrowed material and that your paper has a bibliography with accurate citations.

Use BibGuru’s citation generator to quickly create accurate citations for the books, articles, websites, and other sources that you used in your research paper.

Frequently Asked Questions about how to write a conclusion for a research paper

A conclusion contains an opening statement (often a restatement of the thesis), recommendations for further studies or applications, and a closing statement.

Start by signaling to the reader that you are moving into the concluding section.

The length of your conclusion will depend on the length of your paper. Most research paper conclusions will be around 1-2 paragraphs.

End your conclusion with a closing statement that wraps up the paper and provides closure to your reader.

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How to write a strong conclusion for your research paper

Last updated

17 February 2024

Reviewed by

Writing a research paper is a chance to share your knowledge and hypothesis. It's an opportunity to demonstrate your many hours of research and prove your ability to write convincingly.

Ideally, by the end of your research paper, you'll have brought your readers on a journey to reach the conclusions you've pre-determined. However, if you don't stick the landing with a good conclusion, you'll risk losing your reader’s trust.

Writing a strong conclusion for your research paper involves a few important steps, including restating the thesis and summing up everything properly.

Find out what to include and what to avoid, so you can effectively demonstrate your understanding of the topic and prove your expertise.

• Why is a good conclusion important?

A good conclusion can cement your paper in the reader’s mind. Making a strong impression in your introduction can draw your readers in, but it's the conclusion that will inspire them.

• What to include in a research paper conclusion

There are a few specifics you should include in your research paper conclusion. Offer your readers some sense of urgency or consequence by pointing out why they should care about the topic you have covered. Discuss any common problems associated with your topic and provide suggestions as to how these problems can be solved or addressed.

The conclusion should include a restatement of your initial thesis. Thesis statements are strengthened after you’ve presented supporting evidence (as you will have done in the paper), so make a point to reintroduce it at the end.

Finally, recap the main points of your research paper, highlighting the key takeaways you want readers to remember. If you've made multiple points throughout the paper, refer to the ones with the strongest supporting evidence.

• Steps for writing a research paper conclusion

Many writers find the conclusion the most challenging part of any research project . By following these three steps, you'll be prepared to write a conclusion that is effective and concise.

• Step 1: Restate the problem

Always begin by restating the research problem in the conclusion of a research paper. This serves to remind the reader of your hypothesis and refresh them on the main point of the paper. 

When restating the problem, take care to avoid using exactly the same words you employed earlier in the paper.

• Step 2: Sum up the paper

After you've restated the problem, sum up the paper by revealing your overall findings. The method for this differs slightly, depending on whether you're crafting an argumentative paper or an empirical paper.

Argumentative paper: Restate your thesis and arguments

Argumentative papers involve introducing a thesis statement early on. In crafting the conclusion for an argumentative paper, always restate the thesis, outlining the way you've developed it throughout the entire paper.

It might be appropriate to mention any counterarguments in the conclusion, so you can demonstrate how your thesis is correct or how the data best supports your main points.

Empirical paper: Summarize research findings

Empirical papers break down a series of research questions. In your conclusion, discuss the findings your research revealed, including any information that surprised you.

Be clear about the conclusions you reached, and explain whether or not you expected to arrive at these particular ones.

• Step 3: Discuss the implications of your research

Argumentative papers and empirical papers also differ in this part of a research paper conclusion. Here are some tips on crafting conclusions for argumentative and empirical papers.

Argumentative paper: Powerful closing statement

In an argumentative paper, you'll have spent a great deal of time expressing the opinions you formed after doing a significant amount of research. Make a strong closing statement in your argumentative paper's conclusion to share the significance of your work.

You can outline the next steps through a bold call to action, or restate how powerful your ideas turned out to be.

Empirical paper: Directions for future research

Empirical papers are broader in scope. They usually cover a variety of aspects and can include several points of view.

To write a good conclusion for an empirical paper, suggest the type of research that could be done in the future, including methods for further investigation or outlining ways other researchers might proceed.

If you feel your research had any limitations, even if they were outside your control, you could mention these in your conclusion.

After you finish outlining your conclusion, ask someone to read it and offer feedback. In any research project you're especially close to, it can be hard to identify problem areas. Having a close friend or someone whose opinion you value read the research paper and provide honest feedback can be invaluable. Take note of any suggested edits and consider incorporating them into your paper if they make sense.

• Things to avoid in a research paper conclusion

Keep these aspects to avoid in mind as you're writing your conclusion and refer to them after you've created an outline.

Dry summary

Writing a memorable, succinct conclusion is arguably more important than a strong introduction. Take care to avoid just rephrasing your main points, and don't fall into the trap of repeating dry facts or citations.

You can provide a new perspective for your readers to think about or contextualize your research. Either way, make the conclusion vibrant and interesting, rather than a rote recitation of your research paper’s highlights.

Clichéd or generic phrasing

Your research paper conclusion should feel fresh and inspiring. Avoid generic phrases like "to sum up" or "in conclusion." These phrases tend to be overused, especially in an academic context and might turn your readers off.

The conclusion also isn't the time to introduce colloquial phrases or informal language. Retain a professional, confident tone consistent throughout your paper’s conclusion so it feels exciting and bold.

New data or evidence

While you should present strong data throughout your paper, the conclusion isn't the place to introduce new evidence. This is because readers are engaged in actively learning as they read through the body of your paper.

By the time they reach the conclusion, they will have formed an opinion one way or the other (hopefully in your favor!). Introducing new evidence in the conclusion will only serve to surprise or frustrate your reader.

Ignoring contradictory evidence

If your research reveals contradictory evidence, don't ignore it in the conclusion. This will damage your credibility as an expert and might even serve to highlight the contradictions.

Be as transparent as possible and admit to any shortcomings in your research, but don't dwell on them for too long.

Ambiguous or unclear resolutions

The point of a research paper conclusion is to provide closure and bring all your ideas together. You should wrap up any arguments you introduced in the paper and tie up any loose ends, while demonstrating why your research and data are strong.

Use direct language in your conclusion and avoid ambiguity. Even if some of the data and sources you cite are inconclusive or contradictory, note this in your conclusion to come across as confident and trustworthy.

• Examples of research paper conclusions

Your research paper should provide a compelling close to the paper as a whole, highlighting your research and hard work. While the conclusion should represent your unique style, these examples offer a starting point:

Ultimately, the data we examined all point to the same conclusion: Encouraging a good work-life balance improves employee productivity and benefits the company overall. The research suggests that when employees feel their personal lives are valued and respected by their employers, they are more likely to be productive when at work. In addition, company turnover tends to be reduced when employees have a balance between their personal and professional lives. While additional research is required to establish ways companies can support employees in creating a stronger work-life balance, it's clear the need is there.

Social media is a primary method of communication among young people. As we've seen in the data presented, most young people in high school use a variety of social media applications at least every hour, including Instagram and Facebook. While social media is an avenue for connection with peers, research increasingly suggests that social media use correlates with body image issues. Young girls with lower self-esteem tend to use social media more often than those who don't log onto social media apps every day. As new applications continue to gain popularity, and as more high school students are given smartphones, more research will be required to measure the effects of prolonged social media use.

What are the different kinds of research paper conclusions?

There are no formal types of research paper conclusions. Ultimately, the conclusion depends on the outline of your paper and the type of research you’re presenting. While some experts note that research papers can end with a new perspective or commentary, most papers should conclude with a combination of both. The most important aspect of a good research paper conclusion is that it accurately represents the body of the paper.

Can I present new arguments in my research paper conclusion?

Research paper conclusions are not the place to introduce new data or arguments. The body of your paper is where you should share research and insights, where the reader is actively absorbing the content. By the time a reader reaches the conclusion of the research paper, they should have formed their opinion. Introducing new arguments in the conclusion can take a reader by surprise, and not in a positive way. It might also serve to frustrate readers.

How long should a research paper conclusion be?

There's no set length for a research paper conclusion. However, it's a good idea not to run on too long, since conclusions are supposed to be succinct. A good rule of thumb is to keep your conclusion around 5 to 10 percent of the paper's total length. If your paper is 10 pages, try to keep your conclusion under one page.

What should I include in a research paper conclusion?

A good research paper conclusion should always include a sense of urgency, so the reader can see how and why the topic should matter to them. You can also note some recommended actions to help fix the problem and some obstacles they might encounter. A conclusion should also remind the reader of the thesis statement, along with the main points you covered in the paper. At the end of the conclusion, add a powerful closing statement that helps cement the paper in the mind of the reader.

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• How to Write Discussions and Conclusions

The discussion section contains the results and outcomes of a study. An effective discussion informs readers what can be learned from your experiment and provides context for the results.

What makes an effective discussion?

When you’re ready to write your discussion, you’ve already introduced the purpose of your study and provided an in-depth description of the methodology. The discussion informs readers about the larger implications of your study based on the results. Highlighting these implications while not overstating the findings can be challenging, especially when you’re submitting to a journal that selects articles based on novelty or potential impact. Regardless of what journal you are submitting to, the discussion section always serves the same purpose: concluding what your study results actually mean.

A successful discussion section puts your findings in context. It should include:

• the results of your research,
• a discussion of related research, and
• a comparison between your results and initial hypothesis.

Tip: Not all journals share the same naming conventions.

You can apply the advice in this article to the conclusion, results or discussion sections of your manuscript.

Our Early Career Researcher community tells us that the conclusion is often considered the most difficult aspect of a manuscript to write. To help, this guide provides questions to ask yourself, a basic structure to model your discussion off of and examples from published manuscripts. 

Questions to ask yourself:

• Was my hypothesis correct?
• If my hypothesis is partially correct or entirely different, what can be learned from the results? 
• How do the conclusions reshape or add onto the existing knowledge in the field? What does previous research say about the topic? 
• Why are the results important or relevant to your audience? Do they add further evidence to a scientific consensus or disprove prior studies? 
• How can future research build on these observations? What are the key experiments that must be done? 
• What is the “take-home” message you want your reader to leave with?

How to structure a discussion

Trying to fit a complete discussion into a single paragraph can add unnecessary stress to the writing process. If possible, you’ll want to give yourself two or three paragraphs to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of your study as a whole. Here’s one way to structure an effective discussion:

Writing Tips

While the above sections can help you brainstorm and structure your discussion, there are many common mistakes that writers revert to when having difficulties with their paper. Writing a discussion can be a delicate balance between summarizing your results, providing proper context for your research and avoiding introducing new information. Remember that your paper should be both confident and honest about the results! 

• Read the journal’s guidelines on the discussion and conclusion sections. If possible, learn about the guidelines before writing the discussion to ensure you’re writing to meet their expectations. 
• Begin with a clear statement of the principal findings. This will reinforce the main take-away for the reader and set up the rest of the discussion. 
• Explain why the outcomes of your study are important to the reader. Discuss the implications of your findings realistically based on previous literature, highlighting both the strengths and limitations of the research. 
• State whether the results prove or disprove your hypothesis. If your hypothesis was disproved, what might be the reasons? 
• Introduce new or expanded ways to think about the research question. Indicate what next steps can be taken to further pursue any unresolved questions. 
• If dealing with a contemporary or ongoing problem, such as climate change, discuss possible consequences if the problem is avoided. 
• Be concise. Adding unnecessary detail can distract from the main findings. 

Don’t

• Rewrite your abstract. Statements with “we investigated” or “we studied” generally do not belong in the discussion. 
• Include new arguments or evidence not previously discussed. Necessary information and evidence should be introduced in the main body of the paper. 
• Apologize. Even if your research contains significant limitations, don’t undermine your authority by including statements that doubt your methodology or execution. 
• Shy away from speaking on limitations or negative results. Including limitations and negative results will give readers a complete understanding of the presented research. Potential limitations include sources of potential bias, threats to internal or external validity, barriers to implementing an intervention and other issues inherent to the study design. 
• Overstate the importance of your findings. Making grand statements about how a study will fully resolve large questions can lead readers to doubt the success of the research. 

Snippets of Effective Discussions:

Consumer-based actions to reduce plastic pollution in rivers: A multi-criteria decision analysis approach

Identifying reliable indicators of fitness in polar bears

• How to Write a Great Title
• How to Write an Abstract
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• How to Report Statistics
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The contents of the Peer Review Center are also available as a live, interactive training session, complete with slides, talking points, and activities. …

The contents of the Writing Center are also available as a live, interactive training session, complete with slides, talking points, and activities. …

There’s a lot to consider when deciding where to submit your work. Learn how to choose a journal that will help your study reach its audience, while reflecting your values as a researcher…

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How to Write a Research Paper Conclusion Section

What is a conclusion in a research paper?

The conclusion in a research paper is the final paragraph or two in a research paper. In scientific papers, the conclusion usually follows the Discussion section , summarizing the importance of the findings and reminding the reader why the work presented in the paper is relevant.

However, it can be a bit confusing to distinguish the conclusion section/paragraph from a summary or a repetition of your findings, your own opinion, or the statement of the implications of your work. In fact, the conclusion should contain a bit of all of these other parts but go beyond it—but not too far beyond! 

The structure and content of the conclusion section can also vary depending on whether you are writing a research manuscript or an essay. This article will explain how to write a good conclusion section, what exactly it should (and should not) contain, how it should be structured, and what you should avoid when writing it.  

Table of Contents:

What does a good conclusion section do, what to include in a research paper conclusion.

• Conclusion in an Essay
• Research Paper Conclusion 
• Conclusion Paragraph Outline and Example
• What Not to Do When Writing a Conclusion

The conclusion of a research paper has several key objectives. It should:

• Restate your research problem addressed in the introduction section
• Summarize your main arguments, important findings, and broader implications
• Synthesize key takeaways from your study

The specific content in the conclusion depends on whether your paper presents the results of original scientific research or constructs an argument through engagement with previously published sources.

You presented your general field of study to the reader in the introduction section, by moving from general information (the background of your work, often combined with a literature review ) to the rationale of your study and then to the specific problem or topic you addressed, formulated in the form of the statement of the problem in research or the thesis statement in an essay.

In the conclusion section, in contrast, your task is to move from your specific findings or arguments back to a more general depiction of how your research contributes to the readers’ understanding of a certain concept or helps solve a practical problem, or fills an important gap in the literature. The content of your conclusion section depends on the type of research you are doing and what type of paper you are writing. But whatever the outcome of your work is, the conclusion is where you briefly summarize it and place it within a larger context. It could be called the “take-home message” of the entire paper.

What to summarize in the conclusion

Your conclusion section needs to contain a very brief summary of your work , a very brief summary of the main findings of your work, and a mention of anything else that seems relevant when you now look at your work from a bigger perspective, even if it was not initially listed as one of your main research questions. This could be a limitation, for example, a problem with the design of your experiment that either needs to be considered when drawing any conclusions or that led you to ask a different question and therefore draw different conclusions at the end of your study (compared to when you started out).

Once you have reminded the reader of what you did and what you found, you need to go beyond that and also provide either your own opinion on why your work is relevant (and for whom, and how) or theoretical or practical implications of the study , or make a specific call for action if there is one to be made.   

How to Write an Essay Conclusion

Academic essays follow quite different structures than their counterparts in STEM and the natural sciences. Humanities papers often have conclusion sections that are much longer and contain more detail than scientific papers. There are three main types of academic essay conclusions.

Summarizing conclusion

The most typical conclusion at the end of an analytical/explanatory/argumentative essay is a summarizing conclusion . This is, as the name suggests, a clear summary of the main points of your topic and thesis. Since you might have gone through a number of different arguments or subtopics in the main part of your essay, you need to remind the reader again what those were, how they fit into each other, and how they helped you develop or corroborate your hypothesis.

For an essay that analyzes how recruiters can hire the best candidates in the shortest time or on “how starving yourself will increase your lifespan, according to science”, a summary of all the points you discussed might be all you need. Note that you should not exactly repeat what you said earlier, but rather highlight the essential details and present those to your reader in a different way. 

Externalizing conclusion

If you think that just reminding the reader of your main points is not enough, you can opt for an externalizing conclusion instead, that presents new points that were not presented in the paper so far. These new points can be additional facts and information or they can be ideas that are relevant to the topic and have not been mentioned before.

Such a conclusion can stimulate your readers to think about your topic or the implications of your analysis in a whole new way. For example, at the end of a historical analysis of a specific event or development, you could direct your reader’s attention to some current events that were not the topic of your essay but that provide a different context for your findings.

Editorial conclusion

In an editorial conclusion , another common type of conclusion that you will find at the end of papers and essays, you do not add new information but instead present your own experiences or opinions on the topic to round everything up. What makes this type of conclusion interesting is that you can choose to agree or disagree with the information you presented in your paper so far. For example, if you have collected and analyzed information on how a specific diet helps people lose weight, you can nevertheless have your doubts on the sustainability of that diet or its practicability in real life—if such arguments were not included in your original thesis and have therefore not been covered in the main part of your paper, the conclusion section is the place where you can get your opinion across.    

How to Conclude an Empirical Research Paper

An empirical research paper is usually more concise and succinct than an essay, because, if it is written well, it focuses on one specific question, describes the method that was used to answer that one question, describes and explains the results, and guides the reader in a logical way from the introduction to the discussion without going on tangents or digging into not absolutely relevant topics.

Summarize the findings

In a scientific paper, you should include a summary of the findings. Don’t go into great detail here (you will have presented your in-depth  results  and  discussion  already), but do clearly express the answers to the  research questions  you investigated.

Describe your main findings, even if they weren’t necessarily the ones anticipated, and explain the conclusion they led you to. Explain these findings in as few words as possible.

Instead of beginning with “ In conclusion, in this study, we investigated the effect of stress on the brain using fMRI …”, you should try to find a way to incorporate the repetition of the essential (and only the essential) details into the summary of the key points. “ The findings of this fMRI study on the effect of stress on the brain suggest that …” or “ While it has been known for a long time that stress has an effect on the brain, the findings of this fMRI study show that, surprisingly… ” would be better ways to start a conclusion. 

You should also not bring up new ideas or present new facts in the conclusion of a research paper, but stick to the background information you have presented earlier, to the findings you have already discussed, and the limitations and implications you have already described. The one thing you can add here is a practical recommendation that you haven’t clearly stated before—but even that one needs to follow logically from everything you have already discussed in the discussion section.

Discuss the implications

After summing up your key arguments or findings, conclude the paper by stating the broader implications of the research , whether in methods , approach, or findings. Express practical or theoretical takeaways from your paper. This often looks like a “call to action” or a final “sales pitch” that puts an exclamation point on your paper.

If your research topic is more theoretical in nature, your closing statement should express the significance of your argument—for example, in proposing a new understanding of a topic or laying the groundwork for future research.

Future research example

Future research into education standards should focus on establishing a more detailed picture of how novel pedagogical approaches impact young people’s ability to absorb new and difficult concepts. Moreover, observational studies are needed to gain more insight into how specific teaching models affect the retention of relationships and facts—for instance, how inquiry-based learning and its emphasis on lateral thinking can be used as a jumping-off point for more holistic classroom approaches.

Research Conclusion Example and Outline

Let’s revisit the study on the effect of stress on the brain we mentioned before and see what the common structure for a conclusion paragraph looks like, in three steps. Following these simple steps will make it easy for you to wrap everything up in one short paragraph that contains all the essential information: 

One: Short summary of what you did, but integrated into the summary of your findings:

While it has been known for a long time that stress has an effect on the brain, the findings of this fMRI study in 25 university students going through mid-term exams show that, surprisingly, one’s attitude to the experienced stress significantly modulates the brain’s response to it. 

Note that you don’t need to repeat any methodological or technical details here—the reader has been presented with all of these before, they have read your results section and the discussion of your results, and even (hopefully!) a discussion of the limitations and strengths of your paper. The only thing you need to remind them of here is the essential outcome of your work. 

Two: Add implications, and don’t forget to specify who this might be relevant for: 

Students could be considered a specific subsample of the general population, but earlier research shows that the effect that exam stress has on their physical and mental health is comparable to the effects of other types of stress on individuals of other ages and occupations. Further research into practical ways of modulating not only one’s mental stress response but potentially also one’s brain activity (e.g., via neurofeedback training) are warranted.

This is a “research implication”, and it is nicely combined with a mention of a potential limitation of the study (the student sample) that turns out not to be a limitation after all (because earlier research suggests we can generalize to other populations). If there already is a lot of research on neurofeedback for stress control, by the way, then this should have been discussed in your discussion section earlier and you wouldn’t say such studies are “warranted” here but rather specify how your findings could inspire specific future experiments or how they should be implemented in existing applications. 

Three: The most important thing is that your conclusion paragraph accurately reflects the content of your paper. Compare it to your research paper title , your research paper abstract , and to your journal submission cover letter , in case you already have one—if these do not all tell the same story, then you need to go back to your paper, start again from the introduction section, and find out where you lost the logical thread. As always, consistency is key.    

Problems to Avoid When Writing a Conclusion 

• Do not suddenly introduce new information that has never been mentioned before (unless you are writing an essay and opting for an externalizing conclusion, see above). The conclusion section is not where you want to surprise your readers, but the take-home message of what you have already presented.
• Do not simply copy your abstract, the conclusion section of your abstract, or the first sentence of your introduction, and put it at the end of the discussion section. Even if these parts of your paper cover the same points, they should not be identical.
• Do not start the conclusion with “In conclusion”. If it has its own section heading, that is redundant, and if it is the last paragraph of the discussion section, it is inelegant and also not really necessary. The reader expects you to wrap your work up in the last paragraph, so you don’t have to announce that. Just look at the above example to see how to start a conclusion in a natural way.
• Do not forget what your research objectives were and how you initially formulated the statement of the problem in your introduction section. If your story/approach/conclusions changed because of methodological issues or information you were not aware of when you started, then make sure you go back to the beginning and adapt your entire story (not just the ending). 

Consider Receiving Academic Editing Services

When you have arrived at the conclusion of your paper, you might want to head over to Wordvice AI’s AI Writing Assistant to receive a free grammar check for any academic content. 

After drafting, you can also receive English editing and proofreading services , including paper editing services for your journal manuscript. If you need advice on how to write the other parts of your research paper , or on how to make a research paper outline if you are struggling with putting everything you did together, then head over to the Wordvice academic resources pages , where we have a lot more articles and videos for you.

Organizing Academic Research Papers: 9. The Conclusion

• Purpose of Guide
• Design Flaws to Avoid
• Glossary of Research Terms
• Narrowing a Topic Idea
• Broadening a Topic Idea
• Extending the Timeliness of a Topic Idea
• Academic Writing Style
• Choosing a Title
• Making an Outline
• Paragraph Development
• Executive Summary
• Background Information
• The Research Problem/Question
• Theoretical Framework
• Citation Tracking
• Content Alert Services
• Evaluating Sources
• Primary Sources
• Secondary Sources
• Tertiary Sources
• What Is Scholarly vs. Popular?
• Qualitative Methods
• Quantitative Methods
• Using Non-Textual Elements
• Limitations of the Study
• Common Grammar Mistakes
• Avoiding Plagiarism
• Footnotes or Endnotes?
• Further Readings
• Annotated Bibliography
• Dealing with Nervousness
• Using Visual Aids
• Grading Someone Else's Paper
• How to Manage Group Projects
• Multiple Book Review Essay
• Reviewing Collected Essays
• About Informed Consent
• Writing Field Notes
• Writing a Policy Memo
• Writing a Research Proposal
• Acknowledgements

The conclusion is intended to help the reader understand why your research should matter to them after they have finished reading the paper. A conclusion is not merely a summary of your points or a re-statement of your research problem but a synthesis of key points. For most essays, one well-developed paragraph is sufficient for a conclusion, although in some cases, a two-or-three paragraph conclusion may be required.

Importance of a Good Conclusion

A well-written conclusion provides you with several important opportunities to demonstrate your overall understanding of the research problem to the reader. These include:

• Presenting the last word on the issues you raised in your paper . Just as the introduction gives a first impression to your reader, the conclusion offers a chance to leave a lasting impression. Do this, for example, by highlighting key points in your analysis or findings.
• Summarizing your thoughts and conveying the larger implications of your study . The conclusion is an opportunity to succinctly answer the "so what?" question by placing the study within the context of past research about the topic you've investigated.
• Demonstrating the importance of your ideas . Don't be shy. The conclusion offers you a chance to elaborate on the significance of your findings.
• Introducing possible new or expanded ways of thinking about the research problem . This does not refer to introducing new information [which should be avoided], but to offer new insight and creative approaches for framing/contextualizing the research problem based on the results of your study.

Conclusions . The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Kretchmer, Paul. Twelve Steps to Writing an Effective Conclusion . San Francisco Edit, 2003-2008.

Structure and Writing Style

https://writing.wisc.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/535/2018/07/conclusions_uwmadison_writingcenter_aug2012.pdf I.  General Rules

When writing the conclusion to your paper, follow these general rules:

• State your conclusions in clear, simple language.
• Do not simply reiterate your results or the discussion.
• Indicate opportunities for future research, as long as you haven't already done so in the discussion section of your paper.

The function of your paper's conclusion is to restate the main argument . It reminds the reader of the strengths of your main argument(s) and reiterates the most important evidence supporting those argument(s). Make sure, however, that your conclusion is not simply a repetitive summary of the findings because this reduces the impact of the argument(s) you have developed in your essay.

Consider the following points to help ensure your conclusion is appropriate:

• If the argument or point of your paper is complex, you may need to summarize the argument for your reader.
• If, prior to your conclusion, you have not yet explained the significance of your findings or if you are proceeding inductively, use the end of your paper to describe your main points and explain their significance.
• Move from a detailed to a general level of consideration that returns the topic to the context provided by the introduction or within a new context that emerges from the data.

The conclusion also provides a place for you to persuasively and succinctly restate your research problem, given that the reader has now been presented with all the information about the topic . Depending on the discipline you are writing in, the concluding paragraph may contain your reflections on the evidence presented, or on the essay's central research problem. However, the nature of being introspective about the research you have done will depend on the topic and whether your professor wants you to express your observations in this way.

NOTE : Don't delve into idle speculation. Being introspective means looking within yourself as an author to try and understand an issue more deeply not to guess at possible outcomes.

II.  Developing a Compelling Conclusion

Strategies to help you move beyond merely summarizing the key points of your research paper may include any of the following.

• If your essay deals with a contemporary problem, warn readers of the possible consequences of not attending to the problem.
• Recommend a specific course or courses of action.
• Cite a relevant quotation or expert opinion to lend authority to the conclusion you have reached [a good place to look is research from your literature review].
• Restate a key statistic, fact, or visual image to drive home the ultimate point of your paper.
• If your discipline encourages personal reflection, illustrate your concluding point with a relevant narrative drawn from your own life experiences.
• Return to an anecdote, an example, or a quotation that you introduced in your introduction, but add further insight that is derived from the findings of your study; use your interpretation of results to reframe it in new ways.
• Provide a "take-home" message in the form of a strong, succient statement that you want the reader to remember about your study.

III. Problems to Avoid Failure to be concise The conclusion section should be concise and to the point. Conclusions that are too long often have unnecessary detail. The conclusion section is not the place for details about your methodology or results. Although you should give a summary of what was learned from your research, this summary should be relatively brief, since the emphasis in the conclusion is on the implications, evaluations, insights, etc. that you make. Failure to comment on larger, more significant issues In the introduction, your task was to move from general [the field of study] to specific [your research problem]. However, in the conclusion, your task is to move from specific [your research problem] back to general [your field, i.e., how your research contributes new understanding or fills an important gap in the literature]. In other words, the conclusion is where you place your research within a larger context. Failure to reveal problems and negative results Negative aspects of the research process should never be ignored. Problems, drawbacks, and challenges encountered during your study should be included as a way of qualifying your overall conclusions. If you encountered negative results [findings that are validated outside the research context in which they were generated], you must report them in the results section of your paper. In the conclusion, use the negative results as an opportunity to explain how they provide information on which future research can be based. Failure to provide a clear summary of what was learned In order to be able to discuss how your research fits back into your field of study [and possibly the world at large], you need to summarize it briefly and directly. Often this element of your conclusion is only a few sentences long. Failure to match the objectives of your research Often research objectives change while the research is being carried out. This is not a problem unless you forget to go back and refine your original objectives in your introduction, as these changes emerge they must be documented so that they accurately reflect what you were trying to accomplish in your research [not what you thought you might accomplish when you began].

Resist the urge to apologize If you've immersed yourself in studying the research problem, you now know a good deal about it, perhaps even more than your professor! Nevertheless, by the time you have finished writing, you may be having some doubts about what you have produced. Repress those doubts!  Don't undermine your authority by saying something like, "This is just one approach to examining this problem; there may be other, much better approaches...."

Concluding Paragraphs. College Writing Center at Meramec. St. Louis Community College; Conclusions . The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Conclusions . The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University; Freedman, Leora  and Jerry Plotnick. Introductions and Conclusions . The Lab Report. University College Writing Centre. University of Toronto; Leibensperger, Summer. Draft Your Conclusion. Academic Center, the University of Houston-Victoria, 2003; Make Your Last Words Count . The Writer’s Handbook. Writing Center. University of Wisconsin, Madison; Tips for Writing a Good Conclusion . Writing@CSU. Colorado State University; Kretchmer, Paul. Twelve Steps to Writing an Effective Conclusion . San Francisco Edit, 2003-2008; Writing Conclusions . Writing Tutorial Services, Center for Innovative Teaching and Learning. Indiana University; Writing: Considering Structure and Organization . Institute for Writing Rhetoric. Dartmouth College.

Writing Tip

Don't Belabor the Obvious!

Avoid phrases like "in conclusion...," "in summary...," or "in closing...." These phrases can be useful, even welcome, in oral presentations. But readers can see by the tell-tale section heading and number of pages remaining to read, when an essay is about to end. You'll irritate your readers if you belabor the obvious.

Another Writing Tip

New Insight, Not New Information!

Don't surprise the reader with new information in your Conclusion that was never referenced anywhere else in the paper. If you have new information to present, add it to the Discussion or other appropriate section of the paper.  Note that, although no actual new information is introduced, the conclusion is where you offer your most "original" contributions in the paper; it's where you describe the value of your research, demonstrate your understanding of the material that you’ve presented, and locate your findings within the larger context of scholarship on the topic.

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• How to conclude an essay | Interactive example

How to Conclude an Essay | Interactive Example

Published on January 24, 2019 by Shona McCombes . Revised on July 23, 2023.

The conclusion is the final paragraph of your essay . A strong conclusion aims to:

• Tie together the essay’s main points
• Show why your argument matters
• Leave the reader with a strong impression

Your conclusion should give a sense of closure and completion to your argument, but also show what new questions or possibilities it has opened up.

This conclusion is taken from our annotated essay example , which discusses the history of the Braille system. Hover over each part to see why it’s effective.

Braille paved the way for dramatic cultural changes in the way blind people were treated and the opportunities available to them. Louis Braille’s innovation was to reimagine existing reading systems from a blind perspective, and the success of this invention required sighted teachers to adapt to their students’ reality instead of the other way around. In this sense, Braille helped drive broader social changes in the status of blindness. New accessibility tools provide practical advantages to those who need them, but they can also change the perspectives and attitudes of those who do not.

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Table of contents

Step 1: return to your thesis, step 2: review your main points, step 3: show why it matters, what shouldn’t go in the conclusion, more examples of essay conclusions, other interesting articles, frequently asked questions about writing an essay conclusion.

To begin your conclusion, signal that the essay is coming to an end by returning to your overall argument.

Don’t just repeat your thesis statement —instead, try to rephrase your argument in a way that shows how it has been developed since the introduction.

Prevent plagiarism. Run a free check.

Next, remind the reader of the main points that you used to support your argument.

Avoid simply summarizing each paragraph or repeating each point in order; try to bring your points together in a way that makes the connections between them clear. The conclusion is your final chance to show how all the paragraphs of your essay add up to a coherent whole.

To wrap up your conclusion, zoom out to a broader view of the topic and consider the implications of your argument. For example:

• Does it contribute a new understanding of your topic?
• Does it raise new questions for future study?
• Does it lead to practical suggestions or predictions?
• Can it be applied to different contexts?
• Can it be connected to a broader debate or theme?

Whatever your essay is about, the conclusion should aim to emphasize the significance of your argument, whether that’s within your academic subject or in the wider world.

Try to end with a strong, decisive sentence, leaving the reader with a lingering sense of interest in your topic.

The easiest way to improve your conclusion is to eliminate these common mistakes.

Don’t include new evidence

Any evidence or analysis that is essential to supporting your thesis statement should appear in the main body of the essay.

The conclusion might include minor pieces of new information—for example, a sentence or two discussing broader implications, or a quotation that nicely summarizes your central point. But it shouldn’t introduce any major new sources or ideas that need further explanation to understand.

Don’t use “concluding phrases”

Avoid using obvious stock phrases to tell the reader what you’re doing:

• “In conclusion…”
• “To sum up…”

These phrases aren’t forbidden, but they can make your writing sound weak. By returning to your main argument, it will quickly become clear that you are concluding the essay—you shouldn’t have to spell it out.

Don’t undermine your argument

Avoid using apologetic phrases that sound uncertain or confused:

• “This is just one approach among many.”
• “There are good arguments on both sides of this issue.”
• “There is no clear answer to this problem.”

Even if your essay has explored different points of view, your own position should be clear. There may be many possible approaches to the topic, but you want to leave the reader convinced that yours is the best one!

• Argumentative
• Literary analysis

This conclusion is taken from an argumentative essay about the internet’s impact on education. It acknowledges the opposing arguments while taking a clear, decisive position.

The internet has had a major positive impact on the world of education; occasional pitfalls aside, its value is evident in numerous applications. The future of teaching lies in the possibilities the internet opens up for communication, research, and interactivity. As the popularity of distance learning shows, students value the flexibility and accessibility offered by digital education, and educators should fully embrace these advantages. The internet’s dangers, real and imaginary, have been documented exhaustively by skeptics, but the internet is here to stay; it is time to focus seriously on its potential for good.

This conclusion is taken from a short expository essay that explains the invention of the printing press and its effects on European society. It focuses on giving a clear, concise overview of what was covered in the essay.

The invention of the printing press was important not only in terms of its immediate cultural and economic effects, but also in terms of its major impact on politics and religion across Europe. In the century following the invention of the printing press, the relatively stationary intellectual atmosphere of the Middle Ages gave way to the social upheavals of the Reformation and the Renaissance. A single technological innovation had contributed to the total reshaping of the continent.

This conclusion is taken from a literary analysis essay about Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein . It summarizes what the essay’s analysis achieved and emphasizes its originality.

By tracing the depiction of Frankenstein through the novel’s three volumes, I have demonstrated how the narrative structure shifts our perception of the character. While the Frankenstein of the first volume is depicted as having innocent intentions, the second and third volumes—first in the creature’s accusatory voice, and then in his own voice—increasingly undermine him, causing him to appear alternately ridiculous and vindictive. Far from the one-dimensional villain he is often taken to be, the character of Frankenstein is compelling because of the dynamic narrative frame in which he is placed. In this frame, Frankenstein’s narrative self-presentation responds to the images of him we see from others’ perspectives. This conclusion sheds new light on the novel, foregrounding Shelley’s unique layering of narrative perspectives and its importance for the depiction of character.

If you want to know more about AI tools , college essays , or fallacies make sure to check out some of our other articles with explanations and examples or go directly to our tools!

• Ad hominem fallacy
• Post hoc fallacy
• Appeal to authority fallacy
• False cause fallacy
• Sunk cost fallacy

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Your essay’s conclusion should contain:

• A rephrased version of your overall thesis
• A brief review of the key points you made in the main body
• An indication of why your argument matters

The conclusion may also reflect on the broader implications of your argument, showing how your ideas could applied to other contexts or debates.

For a stronger conclusion paragraph, avoid including:

• Important evidence or analysis that wasn’t mentioned in the main body
• Generic concluding phrases (e.g. “In conclusion…”)
• Weak statements that undermine your argument (e.g. “There are good points on both sides of this issue.”)

Your conclusion should leave the reader with a strong, decisive impression of your work.

The conclusion paragraph of an essay is usually shorter than the introduction . As a rule, it shouldn’t take up more than 10–15% of the text.

Cite this Scribbr article

If you want to cite this source, you can copy and paste the citation or click the “Cite this Scribbr article” button to automatically add the citation to our free Citation Generator.

McCombes, S. (2023, July 23). How to Conclude an Essay | Interactive Example. Scribbr. Retrieved March 22, 2024, from https://www.scribbr.com/academic-essay/conclusion/

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How to Write a Conclusion for a Research Paper

Last Updated: June 29, 2023 Approved

This article was co-authored by Christopher Taylor, PhD . Christopher Taylor is an Adjunct Assistant Professor of English at Austin Community College in Texas. He received his PhD in English Literature and Medieval Studies from the University of Texas at Austin in 2014. wikiHow marks an article as reader-approved once it receives enough positive feedback. This article received 42 testimonials and 82% of readers who voted found it helpful, earning it our reader-approved status. This article has been viewed 2,255,754 times.

The conclusion of a research paper needs to summarize the content and purpose of the paper without seeming too wooden or dry. Every basic conclusion must share several key elements, but there are also several tactics you can play around with to craft a more effective conclusion and several you should avoid to prevent yourself from weakening your paper's conclusion. Here are some writing tips to keep in mind when creating a conclusion for your next research paper.

Sample Conclusions

Writing a basic conclusion.

• Do not spend a great amount of time or space restating your topic.
• A good research paper will make the importance of your topic apparent, so you do not need to write an elaborate defense of your topic in the conclusion.
• Usually a single sentence is all you need to restate your topic.
• An example would be if you were writing a paper on the epidemiology of infectious disease, you might say something like "Tuberculosis is a widespread infectious disease that affects millions of people worldwide every year."
• Yet another example from the humanities would be a paper about the Italian Renaissance: "The Italian Renaissance was an explosion of art and ideas centered around artists, writers, and thinkers in Florence."

• A thesis is a narrowed, focused view on the topic at hand.
• This statement should be rephrased from the thesis you included in your introduction. It should not be identical or too similar to the sentence you originally used.
• Try re-wording your thesis statement in a way that complements your summary of the topic of your paper in your first sentence of your conclusion.
• An example of a good thesis statement, going back to the paper on tuberculosis, would be "Tuberculosis is a widespread disease that affects millions of people worldwide every year. Due to the alarming rate of the spread of tuberculosis, particularly in poor countries, medical professionals are implementing new strategies for the diagnosis, treatment, and containment of this disease ."

• A good way to go about this is to re-read the topic sentence of each major paragraph or section in the body of your paper.
• Find a way to briefly restate each point mentioned in each topic sentence in your conclusion. Do not repeat any of the supporting details used within your body paragraphs.
• Under most circumstances, you should avoid writing new information in your conclusion. This is especially true if the information is vital to the argument or research presented in your paper.
• For example, in the TB paper you could summarize the information. "Tuberculosis is a widespread disease that affects millions of people worldwide. Due to the alarming rate of the spread of tuberculosis, particularly in poor countries, medical professionals are implementing new strategies for the diagnosis, treatment, and containment of this disease. In developing countries, such as those in Africa and Southeast Asia, the rate of TB infections is soaring. Crowded conditions, poor sanitation, and lack of access to medical care are all compounding factors in the spread of the disease. Medical experts, such as those from the World Health Organization are now starting campaigns to go into communities in developing countries and provide diagnostic testing and treatments. However, the treatments for TB are very harsh and have many side effects. This leads to patient non-compliance and spread of multi-drug resistant strains of the disease."

• Note that this is not needed for all research papers.
• If you already fully explained what the points in your paper mean or why they are significant, you do not need to go into them in much detail in your conclusion. Simply restating your thesis or the significance of your topic should suffice.
• It is always best practice to address important issues and fully explain your points in the body of your paper. The point of a conclusion to a research paper is to summarize your argument for the reader and, perhaps, to call the reader to action if needed.

• Note that a call for action is not essential to all conclusions. A research paper on literary criticism, for instance, is less likely to need a call for action than a paper on the effect that television has on toddlers and young children.
• A paper that is more likely to call readers to action is one that addresses a public or scientific need. Let's go back to our example of tuberculosis. This is a very serious disease that is spreading quickly and with antibiotic-resistant forms.
• A call to action in this research paper would be a follow-up statement that might be along the lines of "Despite new efforts to diagnose and contain the disease, more research is needed to develop new antibiotics that will treat the most resistant strains of tuberculosis and ease the side effects of current treatments."

• For example, if you are writing a history paper, then you might discuss how the historical topic you discussed matters today. If you are writing about a foreign country, then you might use the conclusion to discuss how the information you shared may help readers understand their own country.

Making Your Conclusion as Effective as Possible

• Since this sort of conclusion is so basic, you must aim to synthesize the information rather than merely summarizing it.
• Instead of merely repeating things you already said, rephrase your thesis and supporting points in a way that ties them all together.
• By doing so, you make your research paper seem like a "complete thought" rather than a collection of random and vaguely related ideas.

• Ask a question in your introduction. In your conclusion, restate the question and provide a direct answer.
• Write an anecdote or story in your introduction but do not share the ending. Instead, write the conclusion to the anecdote in the conclusion of your paper.
• For example, if you wanted to get more creative and put a more humanistic spin on a paper on tuberculosis, you might start your introduction with a story about a person with the disease, and refer to that story in your conclusion. For example, you could say something like this before you re-state your thesis in your conclusion: "Patient X was unable to complete the treatment for tuberculosis due to severe side effects and unfortunately succumbed to the disease."
• Use the same concepts and images introduced in your introduction in your conclusion. The images may or may not appear at other points throughout the research paper.

• Include enough information about your topic to back the statement up but do not get too carried away with excess detail.
• If your research did not provide you with a clear-cut answer to a question posed in your thesis, do not be afraid to indicate as much.
• Restate your initial hypothesis and indicate whether you still believe it or if the research you performed has begun swaying your opinion.
• Indicate that an answer may still exist and that further research could shed more light on the topic at hand.

• This may not be appropriate for all types of research papers. Most research papers, such as one on effective treatment for diseases, will have the information to make the case for a particular argument already in the paper.
• A good example of a paper that might ask a question of the reader in the ending is one about a social issue, such as poverty or government policy.
• Ask a question that will directly get at the heart or purpose of the paper. This question is often the same question, or some version of it, that you may have started with when you began your research.
• Make sure that the question can be answered by the evidence presented in your paper.
• If desired you can briefly summarize the answer after stating the question. You could also leave the question hanging for the reader to answer, though.

• Even without a call to action, you can still make a recommendation to your reader.
• For instance, if you are writing about a topic like third-world poverty, you can various ways for the reader to assist in the problem without necessarily calling for more research.
• Another example would be, in a paper about treatment for drug-resistant tuberculosis, you could suggest donating to the World Health Organization or research foundations that are developing new treatments for the disease.

Avoiding Common Pitfalls

• These sayings usually sound stiff, unnatural, or trite when used in writing.
• Moreover, using a phrase like "in conclusion" to begin your conclusion is a little too straightforward and tends to lead to a weak conclusion. A strong conclusion can stand on its own without being labeled as such.

• Always state the main argument or thesis in the introduction. A research paper is an analytical discussion of an academic topic, not a mystery novel.
• A good, effective research paper will allow your reader to follow your main argument from start to finish.
• This is why it is best practice to start your paper with an introduction that states your main argument and to end the paper with a conclusion that re-states your thesis for re-iteration.

• All significant information should be introduced in the body of the paper.
• Supporting evidence expands the topic of your paper by making it appear more detailed. A conclusion should narrow the topic to a more general point.
• A conclusion should only summarize what you have already stated in the body of your paper.
• You may suggest further research or a call to action, but you should not bring in any new evidence or facts in the conclusion.

• Most often, a shift in tone occurs when a research paper with an academic tone gives an emotional or sentimental conclusion.
• Even if the topic of the paper is of personal significance for you, you should not indicate as much in your paper.
• If you want to give your paper a more humanistic slant, you could start and end your paper with a story or anecdote that would give your topic more personal meaning to the reader.
• This tone should be consistent throughout the paper, however.

• Apologetic statements include phrases like "I may not be an expert" or "This is only my opinion."
• Statements like this can usually be avoided by refraining from writing in the first-person.
• Avoid any statements in the first-person. First-person is generally considered to be informal and does not fit with the formal tone of a research paper.

Community Q&A

You Might Also Like

• ↑ http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/724/04/
• ↑ http://www.crlsresearchguide.org/18_Writing_Conclusion.asp
• ↑ http://writing.wisc.edu/Handbook/PlanResearchPaper.html#conclusion
• ↑ http://writingcenter.unc.edu/handouts/conclusions/
• ↑ http://writing2.richmond.edu/writing/wweb/conclude.html

About This Article

To write a conclusion for a research paper, start by restating your thesis statement to remind your readers what your main topic is and bring everything full circle. Then, briefly summarize all of the main points you made throughout your paper, which will help remind your readers of everything they learned. You might also want to include a call to action if you think more research or work needs to be done on your topic by writing something like, "Despite efforts to contain the disease, more research is needed to develop antibiotics." Finally, end your conclusion by explaining the broader context of your topic and why your readers should care about it, which will help them understand why your topic is relevant and important. For tips from our Academic co-author, like how to avoid common pitfalls when writing your conclusion, scroll down! Did this summary help you? Yes No

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How to Write a Conclusion for a Research Paper

When you're wrapping up a research paper, the conclusion is like the grand finale of a fireworks show – it's your chance to leave a lasting impression. In this article, we'll break down the steps to help you write a winning research paper conclusion that not only recaps your main points but also ties everything together. Consider it the "So what?" moment – why should people care about your research? Our professional essay writers will guide you through making your conclusion strong, clear, and something that sticks with your readers long after they've put down your paper. So, let's dive in and ensure your research ends on a high note!

What Is a Conclusion in a Research Paper

In a research paper, the conclusion serves as the final segment, where you summarize the main points and findings of your study. It's not just a repetition of what you've already said but rather a chance to tie everything together and highlight the significance of your research. As you learn how to start a research paper , a good conclusion also often discusses the implications of your findings, suggests potential areas for further research, and leaves the reader with a lasting impression of the importance and relevance of your work in the broader context of the field. Essentially, it's your last opportunity to make a strong impact and leave your readers with a clear understanding of the significance of your research. Here’s a research paper conclusion example:

In conclusion, this research paper has navigated the intricacies of sustainable urban development, shedding light on the pivotal role of community engagement and innovative planning strategies. Through applying qualitative and quantitative research methods, we've uncovered valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities inherent in fostering environmentally friendly urban spaces. The implications of these findings extend beyond the confines of this study, emphasizing the imperative for continued exploration in the realms of urban planning and environmental sustainability. By emphasizing both the practical applications and theoretical contributions, this research underscores the significance of community involvement and forward-thinking strategies in shaping the future of urban landscapes. As cities evolve, incorporating these insights into planning and development practices will create resilient and harmonious urban environments.

Conclusion Outline for Research Paper

This outline for a research paper conclusion provides a structured framework to ensure that your ending effectively summarizes the key elements of your research paper and leaves a lasting impression on your readers. Adjust the content based on the specific requirements and focus of your research.

Restate the Thesis Statement

• Briefly restate the main thesis or research question.
• Emphasize the core objective or purpose of the study.

Summarize Key Findings

• Recap the main points and key findings from each section of the paper.
• Provide a concise overview of the research journey.

Discuss Implications

• Explore the broader implications of the research findings.
• Discuss how the results contribute to the existing body of knowledge in the field.

Address Limitations

• Acknowledge any limitations or constraints encountered during the research process.
• Explain how these limitations may impact the interpretation of the findings.

Suggest Areas for Future Research

• Propose potential directions for future studies related to the topic.
• Identify gaps in the current research that warrant further exploration.

Reaffirm Significance

• Reaffirm the importance and relevance of the research in the broader context.
• Highlight the practical applications or real-world implications of the study.

Concluding Statement

• Craft a strong, memorable closing statement that leaves a lasting impression.
• Sum up the overall impact of the research and its potential contribution to the field.

Study the full guide on how to make a research paper outline here, which will also specify the conclusion writing specifics to improve your general prowess.

Tips on How to Make a Conclusion in Research

Here are key considerations regarding a conclusion for research paper to not only recap the primary ideas in your work but also delve deeper to earn a higher grade:

• Provide a concise recap of your main research outcomes.
• Remind readers of your research goals and their accomplishments.
• Stick to summarizing existing content; refrain from adding new details.
• Emphasize why your research matters and its broader implications.
• Clearly explain the practical or theoretical impact of your findings.
• Prompt readers to reflect on how your research influences their perspective.
• Briefly discuss the robustness of your research methods.
• End with a suggestion for future research or a practical application.
• Transparently address any constraints or biases in your study.
• End on a powerful note, leaving a memorable impression on your readers.

For your inspiration, we’ve also prepared this research proposal example APA , which dwells on another important aspect of research writing.

How to Write a Research Paper Conclusion

As you finish your research paper, the conclusion takes center stage. In this section, we've got five practical tips for writing a conclusion for a research paper. We'll guide you through summarizing your key findings, revisiting your research goals, discussing the bigger picture, addressing any limitations, and ending on a powerful note. Think of it as your roadmap to creating a conclusion that not only wraps up your research but also leaves a lasting impact on your readers. Let's dive in and make sure your conclusion stands out for all the right reasons!

Synthesize Core Discoveries. Initiate your conclusion by synthesizing the essential discoveries of your research. Offer a succinct recapitulation of the primary points and outcomes you have elucidated in your paper. This aids in reinforcing the gravity of your work and reiterates the pivotal information you have presented.

Revisit Research Objectives. Revisit the research objectives or questions you outlined at the beginning of your paper. Assess whether you have successfully addressed these objectives and if your findings align with the initial goals of your research. This reflection helps tie your conclusion back to the purpose of your study.

Discuss Implications and Contributions. Discuss the broader implications of your research and its potential contributions to the field. Consider how your findings might impact future research, applications, or understanding of the subject matter. This demonstrates the significance of your work and places it within a larger context.

Address Limitations and Future Research. Acknowledge any limitations in your study, such as constraints in data collection or potential biases. Briefly discuss how these limitations might have affected your results. Additionally, suggest areas for future research that could build upon your work, addressing any unanswered questions or unexplored aspects. This demonstrates a thoughtful approach to your research.

End with a Strong Conclusion Statement. Conclude your research paper with a strong and memorable statement that reinforces the key message you want readers to take away. This could be a call to action, a proposal for further investigation, or a reflection on the broader significance of your findings. Leave your readers with a lasting impression that emphasizes the importance of your research. Remember that you can buy a research paper anytime if you lack time or get stuck in writer’s block.

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Stylistic Devices to Use in a Conclusion

Discover distinctive stylistic insights that you can apply when writing a conclusion for a research paper:

• Rhetorical Questions. When using rhetorical questions, strategically place them to engage readers' minds. For instance, you might pose a question that prompts reflection on the broader implications of your findings, leaving your audience with something to ponder.
• Powerful Language. Incorporate strong language to convey a sense of conviction and importance. Choose words that resonate with the overall tone of your research and amplify the significance of your conclusions. This adds weight to your key messages.
• Repetitions. Repetitions can be employed to reinforce essential ideas. Reiterate key phrases or concepts in a way that emphasizes their importance without sounding redundant. This technique serves to drive home your main points.
• Anecdotes. Integrating anecdotes into your conclusion can provide a human touch. Share a brief and relevant story that connects with your research, making the information more relatable and memorable for your audience.
• Vivid Imagery. Lastly, use vivid imagery to paint a picture in the minds of your readers. Appeal to their senses by describing scenarios or outcomes related to your research. This creates a more immersive and lasting impression.

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How to Make a Conclusion Logically Appealing

Knowing how to write a conclusion for a research paper that is logically appealing is important for leaving a lasting impression on your readers. Here are some tips to achieve this:

Logical Sequencing

• Present your conclusion in a structured manner, following the natural flow of your paper. Readers should effortlessly follow your thought process, making your conclusion more accessible and persuasive.

Reinforce Main Arguments

• Emphasize the core arguments and findings from your research. By reinforcing key points, you solidify your stance and provide a logical culmination to your paper.

Address Counterarguments

• Acknowledge and address potential counterarguments or limitations in your research. Demonstrate intellectual honesty and strengthen your conclusion by preemptively addressing potential doubts.

Connect with Introduction

• Revisit themes or concepts introduced in your introduction to create a cohesive narrative, allowing readers to trace the logical progression of your research from start to finish.

Propose Actionable Insights

• Suggest practical applications or recommendations based on your findings. This will add a forward-looking dimension, making your conclusion more relevant and compelling.

Highlight Significance

• Clearly articulate the broader implications of your research to convey the importance of your work and its potential impact on the field, making your conclusion logically compelling.

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Avoid These Things When Writing a Research Paper Conclusion

As you write your conclusion of research paper, there’s a list of things professional writers don’t recommend doing. Consider these issues carefully:

• Repetition of Exact Phrases
• Repetitively using the same phrases or sentences from the main body. Repetition can make your conclusion seem redundant and less engaging.
• Overly Lengthy Summaries
• Providing excessively detailed summaries of each section of your paper. Readers may lose interest if the conclusion becomes too long and detailed.
• Unclear Connection to the Introduction
• Failing to connect the conclusion back to the introduction. A lack of continuity may make the paper feel disjointed.
• Adding New Arguments or Ideas
• Introducing new arguments or ideas that were not addressed in the body. This can confuse the reader and disrupt the coherence of your paper.
• Overuse of Complex Jargon
• Using excessively complex or technical language without clarification. Clear communication is essential in the conclusion, ensuring broad understanding.
• Apologizing or Undermining Confidence
• Apologizing for limitations or expressing doubt about your work. Maintain a confident tone; if limitations exist, present them objectively without undermining your research.
• Sweeping Generalizations
• Making overly broad or unsupported generalizations. Such statements can weaken the credibility of your conclusion.
• Neglecting the Significance
• Failing to emphasize the broader significance of your research. Readers need to understand why your findings matter in a larger context.
• Abrupt Endings
• Concluding abruptly without a strong closing statement. A powerful ending leaves a lasting impression; avoid a sudden or weak conclusion.

Research Paper Conclusion Example

That covers the essential aspects of summarizing a research paper. The only remaining step is to review the conclusion examples for research paper provided by our team.

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Final Thoughts

In conclusion, the knowledge of how to write the conclusion of a research paper is pivotal for presenting your findings and leaving a lasting impression on your readers. By summarizing the key points, reiterating the significance of your research, and offering avenues for future exploration, you can create a conclusion that not only reinforces the value of your study but also encourages further academic discourse. Remember to balance brevity and completeness, ensuring your conclusion is concise yet comprehensive. Emphasizing the practical implications of your research and connecting it to the broader academic landscape will help solidify the impact of your work. Pay someone to write a research paper if you are having a hard time finishing your coursework on time.

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Conclusions

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This page is brought to you by the OWL at Purdue University. When printing this page, you must include the entire legal notice.

Copyright ©1995-2018 by The Writing Lab & The OWL at Purdue and Purdue University. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, reproduced, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without permission. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our terms and conditions of fair use.

This resource outlines the generally accepted structure for introductions, body paragraphs, and conclusions in an academic argument paper. Keep in mind that this resource contains guidelines and not strict rules about organization. Your structure needs to be flexible enough to meet the requirements of your purpose and audience.

Conclusions wrap up what you have been discussing in your paper. After moving from general to specific information in the introduction and body paragraphs, your conclusion should begin pulling back into more general information that restates the main points of your argument. Conclusions may also call for action or overview future possible research. The following outline may help you conclude your paper:

In a general way,

• Restate your topic and why it is important,
• Restate your thesis/claim,
• Address opposing viewpoints and explain why readers should align with your position,
• Call for action or overview future research possibilities.

Remember that once you accomplish these tasks, unless otherwise directed by your instructor, you are finished. Done. Complete. Don't try to bring in new points or end with a whiz bang(!) conclusion or try to solve world hunger in the final sentence of your conclusion. Simplicity is best for a clear, convincing message.

The preacher's maxim is one of the most effective formulas to follow for argument papers:

Tell what you're going to tell them (introduction).

Tell them (body).

Tell them what you told them (conclusion).

• Open access
• Published: 21 March 2024

A rapid review to inform the policy and practice for the implementation of chronic disease prevention and management programs for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in primary care

• Uday Narayan Yadav   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-6626-1604 1 , 2   na1 ,
• Jasmine Meredith Davis 3 ,
• Keziah Bennett-Brook 4 ,
• Julieann Coombes 4 ,
• Rosemary Wyber 1 , 5   na1 &
• Odette Pearson 6 , 7  

Health Research Policy and Systems volume  22 , Article number:  34 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

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More than 35% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults live with cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease. There is a pressing need for chronic disease prevention and management among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia. Therefore, this review aimed to synthesise a decade of contemporary evidence to understand the barriers and enablers of chronic disease prevention and management for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander People with a view to developing policy and practice recommendations.

We systematically searched for peer-reviewed published articles between January 2014 to March 2023 where the search was performed using subject headings and keywords related to “Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples,” “Chronic Disease,” and “Primary Health Care”. Quality assessment for all included studies was conducted using the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Quality Appraisal Tool. The data were extracted and summarised using a conventional content analysis approach and applying strength-based approaches.

Database searches identified 1653 articles where 26 met inclusion criteria. Studies varied in quality, primarily reporting on 14 criteria of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Quality Appraisal Tool. We identified six key domains of enablers and barriers of chronic disease prevention and management programs and implied a range of policy and practice options for improvement. These include culturally acceptable and safe services, patient-provider partnerships, chronic disease workforce, primary health care service attributes, clinical care pathways, and accessibility to primary health care services. This review also identified the need to address social and cultural determinants of health, develop the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous chronic disease workforce, support multidisciplinary teams through strengthening clinical care pathways, and engage Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities in chronic disease prevention and management program design and delivery.

Enabling place-based partnerships to develop contextual evidence-guided strategies that align with community priorities and aspirations, with the provision of funding mechanisms and models of care through policy and practice reforms will strengthen the chronic disease prevention and management program for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

Peer Review reports

Introduction

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have continuously demonstrated strength, tenacity, and resilience in the face of a high burden of chronic disease associated with profound health, social, economic and cultural and wellbeing impacts. The disproportionate burden of chronic disease—particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD), type II diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD)—is driven by the effects of colonisation. These effects include intergenerational trauma, racism and commercial determinants such as the introduction of ultra-processed foods, tobacco, sugar-sweetened beverages, and alcohol [ 1 , 2 ].

More than 35% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adults report having CVD, diabetes or CKD, 38% have two of these conditions and 11% have all three [ 3 ]. Nearly 70% of Australia’s burden of disease from CVD is attributable to modifiable risk factors including high blood pressure, dietary risks, high body weight, high cholesterol and smoking [ 4 ]. These risk factors, and subsequent disease, can be prevented. This prevention can be primordial (by addressing the structural drivers at a population level, such as food supply and recreation facilities) or primary (through identifying people at risk and taking individual steps to reduce that risk).

Primary prevention and management of chronic disease among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia predominantly occurs in primary care settings. Universal primary care in Australia is largely funded through a fee-for-service model via the Medicare Benefits Scheme (MBS), with some augmentation for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people through the Indigenous Australian’ Health Programme [ 5 ]. Primary care is delivered by a range of providers, including Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations (ACCHOs) which are governed by a local board, Aboriginal Medical Services run by State and Territory governments, and private primary care services (sometimes referred to as ‘mainstream’ providers). Chronic disease services in primary care include risk assessment, support for healthy behaviours, referrals to allied health and pharmacology for risk reduction. High quality, culturally safe primary care can prevent the development of disease, and manage complications, for individuals and communities [ 6 , 7 , 8 ]. Strengthening primary care is a key strategic priority of the Australian government, [ 9 , 10 ] peak bodies and other stakeholders working to improve the health and well-being of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities [ 11 , 12 ].

Understanding how primary care services, prevention and management programs can best meet the needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, who are living with or at risk of chronic disease, is critical to addressing disparity in outcomes. A review conducted by Gibson et al. in 2015 explored chronic disease care for Indigenous communities globally, but there has been no comprehensive contextual evidence available focusing on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people [ 13 ]. Therefore, there is a need for local evidence disease on chronic prevention and management for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander People’s Health Assessment (MBS item number 715) is an annual health check funded for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and a cornerstone of early detection for chronic disease [ 14 ]. The number of Health Assessments fell for the first time in 2020 and 2021 after years of sustained growth [ 15 ]. The reduction in Health Assessments is likely to reflect disruption to routine primary care services during the COVID-19 pandemic [ 16 ].

Our team were contracted by the Australian Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care to understand best practice delivery of chronic disease care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in 2020. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the need for this research and necessitated a pivot to rapid review strategy. The Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine highlights [ 17 ] that rapid review methodology can be used to meet the needs of commissioning bodies in policy-relevant timeframes. Therefore, this rapid review aims to synthesise contemporary and contextually relevant barriers and enablers for chronic disease care in primary care settings for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with a view to developing near term policy and practice recommendations.

This review applied the SelecTing Approaches for Rapid Reviews (STARR) decision tool that includes interaction with commissioners, scoping the literature, selecting approaches to literature search, methods for data extraction and evidence synthesis [ 18 ]. It was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) guideline [ 19 ]. We searched two databases (Medline and Web of Science) to identify relevant studies from January 2014 to March 2023. These two databases were chosen because of following reasons: (i) Medline database provides access to articles from 5,200 journals in about 40 languages covering the biomedical and life sciences including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as a MeSH Headings and (ii) Web of Science is the world’s oldest interdisciplinary and widely used database of research publications that covers over 34,000 journals today.

This timeframe follows on from a systematic review conducted by Gibson et al. [ 13 ] which included data up to December 2013. This rapid review mirrors the Gibson methodology with two main changes: i) narrowing focus from Indigenous communities globally to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander contexts in Australia, ii) narrowing focus from all chronic diseases to focus on the three major contributors to chronic disease burden (cardiovascular disease, diabetes and chronic kidney disease). The review was performed between January to August 2023.

In this review, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander researchers and Thiitu Tharrmay Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Reference Group members rather than Thiitu Tharrmay Aboriginal Reference Group members were actively engaged and consulted in all steps, from the inception of the research questions to the completion of this review. Throughout the process, the research team met monthly with the Australian Commonwealth Department of Health and Aged Care during the period of this review to inform the scope of evidence synthesis.

Positionality: The senior author of this review Pearson (nee Gibson, first author of the 2015 review), is Kuku Yalnji/Torres Strait Islander health systems researcher. KB-B ( Torres Strait Islander ) and JC ( Gumbaynggir ) are experienced researchers with particular expertise in quality assessment of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander research studies. UNY ( Madhesi, Nepal ) is an implementation scientist, JD is a non-Indigenous medical student and RW is a non-Indigenous practising general practitioner and researcher.

Operational definition of key terminology used in this review:

Holistic care or support: The care process that involved strategies to support mental, physical, cultural and spiritual health which is beyond the individual level that values family and community capacity and governance [ 20 ].

Systems thinking: Systems thinking is c onceptual  orientation concerned with inter-relationships between different levels, institutions, systems, and people nested within social, cultural, economic, political contexts to deliver a holistic care [ 21 ].

Place-based partnerships: Place-based partnerships involve collaborative arrangements the unique needs and circumstances of both the community and service provider. In this context, place-based partnerships involve a formal partnership among government, service providers and First Nations representatives. These partnerships are specific to geographical locations and population groups and are aimed at designing or delivering services that directly respond to community needs, aspirations and local priorities, while valuing local cultural values [ 22 , 23 ].

Scoping the literature:

The search was performed using a combination of subject headings and keywords related to “Aboriginal and Torres Islander peoples,” “Chronic Disease,” and “Primary Health Care” using “OR” and “AND” iterated from the search strategy described in a study by Gibson et al. [ 13 ] The search strategy has been provided in Box 1. The search results obtained from two databases were imported to Endnote and uploaded on the Covidence platform for title and abstract and full-text screening [ 24 ]. Three reviewers (UNY, JMD and RW) independently screened the titles and abstracts of potential studies for eligibility based on inclusion and exclusion criteria (Table  1 ). Full-text articles were assessed by two reviewers and any disagreement that appeared during the screening process was resolved through discussion with the third reviewer (RW). The details of the screening process are documented as a PRISMA flow diagram (Fig.  1 ).

PRISMA 2020 flow diagram that included searches of databases and included studies

Box 1: Search strategy

Data extraction.

An iterative process was used to define data extraction domains. A total of fourteen potential domains were identified from the systematic review conducted by Gibson et al., alongside the He Pikinga Waiora Implementation Framework [ 25 ] and an access framework for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people [ 26 ]. Further, three discussions were held within the team and with other Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander researchers that identified eight domains of interest for both barriers and enablers (design attributes, chronic disease workforce, patient/provider partnership, clinical care pathways, access-accessibility, access-acceptability, system thinking and knowledge translation). A data extraction tool was prepared to extract information about the study characteristics (title, author, publication year, study setting, study objective, study design, types of services) and eight domains decided from the discussions mentioned above. A data extraction tool was shared with the  Thiitu Tharrmay Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Reference Group members rather than Thiitu Tharrmay Aboriginal Reference Group members  at the National Centre for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Wellbeing Research at the Australian National University for their input. Based on inputs from Thiitu Tharrmay Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Reference Group members rather than Thiitu Tharrmay Aboriginal Reference Group members  and team discussion, some domains were consolidated and made an agreement of extracting data focusing six domains (culturally acceptable and safe services, patient provider partnerships, chronic disease workforce, primary health care service attributes, clinical care pathways and accessibility to primary health care services) the final data extraction tool included study characteristics and six domains (Fig.  2 )focusing both barriers and enablers. The data extraction tool was piloted on five included studies that facilitated shared understanding of approach to data extraction between team members. The data were extracted by UNY and JMD between May to June 2023.

Barriers and enablers to chronic disease prevention and management for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people

Evidence synthesis and quality appraisal

Quality assessment for all included studies was conducted using the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Quality Appraisal Tool that privileges Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people’s (knowing) epistemology, (being) ontology, (doing) axiology and ethical research governance [ 27 ]. The extracted data were analysed and summarised using a conventional content analysis approach [ 28 ] that allows the categories and the name of the categories to flow from the data and applying strength-based approaches [ 29 ].

Study selection and its characteristics

For the period 2013- 2023, a total of 1653 articles were retrieved from Medline ( n  = 927) and Web of Science ( n  = 726) databases. Of the total, 313 were duplicates which left 1340 articles for screening. Following the screening, 115 studies were selected for the full-text review. Upon full-text review, 89 articles were excluded, leaving 26 articles to be included for extraction and evidence synthesis. Service delivery models of the included studies were ACCHOs, government-run Aboriginal Medical Services and private general practice. The majority of the studies applied qualitative or mixed-method evaluation approaches (see Additional file 1 ).

Quality appraisal results

All studies met two criteria from the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Quality Appraisal Tool: priority determined by community (criterion 1) and use of an Indigenous research paradigm (criterion 9). Over 92% studies met criteria for community protocols (criterion 5), 80% of studies met criteria addressing community consultation and engagement (criterion 2), Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leadership (criterion 3) and 76% studies had demonstrated Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander governance in research (criterion 4). While 30% or less of the studies addressed existing intellectual and cultural property (criterion 6 and 7), 70% studies met the following criteria: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people control over collection and management of research materials (criteria 8), use of strength based approach and acknowledging practices that have harmed Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities (criterion 10) translation of findings into sustainable changes (criterion 11), benefit the participants and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities (criterion 12), demonstrate capacity strengthening for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (criterion 13), and researchers have opportunities to learn from each other (criterion 14). Details are provided in Table  2 .

Enablers and barriers to the implementation of chronic disease initiatives

Enablers and barriers (see Additional file 2 ) are presented under six thematic domains and relevant sub-themes presented below:

Primary health care service attributes

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander engagement and Aboriginal leadership in system design: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander project leadership and community engagement were overwhelmingly identified as key determinants for system design [ 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 ]. Engagement through outreach cultural community events and stakeholder partnerships appear to amplify these effects [ 48 ]. Six studies investigated how information was exchanged between knowledge-users and researchers throughout the studies [ 30 , 38 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 ]. Knowledge users included Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, primary health care providers (ACCHOs and mainstream providers), Aboriginal and/ or Torres Strait Islander health workers and practitioners, other service providers, and policymakers. Alongside this, one study acknowledged the utilisation of cultural and scientific evidence to provide best-practice healthcare [ 37 ]. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander project leadership consistently facilitated trust and satisfaction. Use of evidence-based clinical care guideline in project implementation within community and services were other key benefits of knowledge translation.

Primary health car responsive to local community needs: Prospective analysis of potential barriers for program development were essential to program success, in order to actively address these in the program design and implementation. Many studies clearly demonstrated how barriers were overcome through tailored solutions including: outreach services to save patient time and cost [ 30 , 31 , 45 , 49 ]; free of charge services [ 31 , 49 , 50 , 51 ]; 24-h culturally safe service [ 32 , 37 , 50 ]; and telehealth specialist services [ 51 , 52 ]. Outreach services (delivered outside of the clinic facility) included home medication delivery, general visits by health workers to build trust and screening for conditions at community-based events. Services which were free at point of care included medications, nicotine patches, hospital specialist clinics, supplementary services (e.g. cooking class, aged care services), and preventive initiatives (e.g. blood pressure measurement, glucose monitor and health promotion activities). Innovative primary care models for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients included flexible appointment systems [ 32 , 37 , 50 ], multidisciplinary teams for providing holistic care [ 37 , 38 , 51 ], and clinical audits for quality improvement were also effective [ 31 , 34 , 39 , 45 , 46 ]. Incorporating chronic disease prevention into primary care occurred through health promotion initiatives [ 30 , 35 , 37 , 50 , 51 ], and patient-led prevention initiatives and management plans [ 30 , 46 , 50 ] were also found to be invaluable in addressing community needs. Six studies explicitly emphasised the importance of adequate resources and flexible funding for primary care services to meet local Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community priorities and needs [ 30 , 32 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 ].

A holistic approach to care: Aligned with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples’ perception of health , holistic support [ 30 , 38 , 44 ] and care coordination was critical, necessitating flexible funding, and systems thinking and innovative, locally-adapted reforms [ 30 , 31 , 46 ]. Social referral approaches that connected people to non-clinical services were an important component in Aboriginal community controlled primary care settings, for example: connecting patients to exercise groups, providing access to housing, opportunities for hobbies, or home care services such as ‘Meals on Wheels’ [ 38 , 40 , 41 , 53 ].

Primary care access: Several barriers were identified, including: a lack of support specific to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leadership [ 34 , 39 , 51 , 53 , 54 ]; competing priorities of healthcare service delivery [ 30 , 34 , 39 ]; and a lack of funding specifically address social determinants of health [ 31 , 55 ]. These were more pronounced in Aboriginal PHC. There were also insufficient resources to engage stakeholders in the co-development of primary care programs. This contributed to poor connections and relationships between multidisciplinary teams in health centres and other actors, including clinical information management systems [ 34 , 48 , 51 , 54 ], and high turnover of trained staff [ 34 , 50 , 54 ]. Some studies highlighted challenges in creating culturally appropriate services, due to the heterogeneity of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations [ 32 , 39 , 55 ]. Moreover, accessing primary care services was particularly challenging for people with the greatest health needs [ 31 ], including those with limited health literacy which made it difficult for people to engage with chronic disease care [ 48 , 49 ].

Chronic disease workforce

Creating supportive environment and building capacity of primary healthcare workforce: Enabling safe and good work environments for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Workers and Practitioners [ 30 , 35 , 54 ], and a shared sense of purpose amongst staff to address the complex needs of patients [ 30 , 47 ] were consistently identified as enablers. Eight studies highlighted the importance of dedicated staff for chronic disease management, with clear delegation of responsibilities and a positive team culture created through an engaging and collaborative work environment [ 30 , 36 , 37 , 39 , 43 , 46 , 51 , 54 ]. Establishing the health care workforce with chronic disease ‘portfolios’ were considered more able to provide recurrent, culturally safe, preventative, and responsive healthcare for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people because they had a greater chance of forming trusting relationships [ 32 , 41 , 48 , 50 ]. Included studies highlighted the need for training and development of the primary healthcare workforce [ 30 , 31 , 33 , 55 ]. Four studies had a particular focus on local Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Workers and Practitioners including the importance of recruitment and retention strategies [ 31 , 34 , 39 , 46 ], alongside a need to clarify their roles, provide Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander role models [ 40 , 41 , 50 , 52 ], and ensure they are involved in clinical decision making [ 30 , 33 , 35 , 37 , 39 , 43 , 44 , 52 , 54 ]. The importance of intensive cultural safety training for staff to deliver safe care was emphasised in five studies [ 37 , 47 , 49 , 54 , 55 ].

Barriers to sustainable chronic disease workforce at primary health care services: Nine studies noted staff shortages and high staff turnover as adversely impacting continuity of care [ 32 , 33 , 34 , 39 , 43 , 46 , 50 , 51 , 53 ], and three studies noted inadequate clinical training for non-Indigenous staff [ 32 , 46 , 53 ]. Workforce limitations contributed to lack of time and resources to reach the patients that needed healthcare the most [ 31 , 45 , 46 ]. Nine studies specifically emphasised the substantial shortages, high turnover, and high rates of burnout of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander staff [ 33 , 34 , 39 , 43 , 46 , 51 , 53 , 54 , 55 ]. Work overload, inadequate support and a sense of being undervalued contributed to these issues [ 32 , 33 , 43 ]. Four studies noted shortages of specialists as a key barrier to integrated chronic disease management pathway [ 34 , 43 , 46 , 47 ].

Patient-provider partnerships

Optimal care achieved by effective trustful patient-provider partnerships: Eight studies found that enablers of trusting patient-provider relationships included strengthening patient knowledge through interactive learning, culturally appropriate conversation, and strengths-focused clinical engagement [ 30 , 32 , 33 , 35 , 38 , 50 , 53 , 55 ]. Numerous studies highlighted that holistic care required mechanisms for communities, families/carers and community leaders to be engaged with service providers [ 30 , 45 , 52 , 53 , 54 ]. ACCHOs were generally identified as meeting these needs by offering culturally safe care, longer consultation times to facilitate patient/provider partnerships [ 32 , 37 ], and communicating with the community when there were changes in services, or the implementation of new programs [ 31 ].

Contextual barriers to patient-provider partnership: Barriers to partnership included competing priorities for patients [ 53 ], patient experiences of racism and discrimination [ 32 ], patient discomfort with non-Indigenous services [ 32 ], and patients sensing that their holistic needs were unmet [ 42 ]. Two studies reported that limited health literacy with little shared provider-consumer understanding of chronic conditions were barriers to forming positive relationships [ 31 , 46 ]. Three studies noted a general lack of connection between the clinician and patient but did not interrogate the contributors to this [ 32 , 49 , 55 ].

Clinical care pathways

Enablers to effective clinical information systems: Nine studies found in-house information technology support within primary healthcare services was crucial for effective patient referral, coordination, and follow-up care [ 30 , 31 , 32 , 34 , 38 , 39 , 43 , 46 , 55 ]. Of these, two highlighted the importance of partnership-enabled integration across health service organisations using a shared electronic health record system, disease registration multidisciplinary care plans, and a patient recall system [ 30 , 36 ]. While translation of evidence-based care guidelines were not mentioned, five studies explained the importance of capacity building of staff and investment in systems development for the effective use of clinical information systems [ 30 , 34 , 39 , 43 , 51 ].

Barriers to efficient clinical information systems: Information technology barriers were profound, including poor integration information technology systems, mixed paper and electronic records [ 43 , 46 , 51 , 53 ], and poor infrastructure – most notably internet access [ 34 , 52 , 54 ]. Four studies noted shortages of trained and regular staff to implement new pathways, as a key barrier to integrated chronic disease management pathways [ 34 , 43 , 46 , 47 ]. Inconsistent models of care [ 44 ], and poor communication between different hospital and primary care systems [ 50 ] were also barriers.

Access to primary health care services

Many of the recognised domains of healthcare access (accessibility, accommodation, availability, accessibility and affordability) were identified [ 56 ].

People and family-centred reforms improve access to adequate primary care: Enablers of access to primary health care services were identified in ten studies [ 30 , 31 , 32 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 43 , 45 , 49 , 53 ]. Transportation support was a determining and/or motivating factor for clients to access health services [ 31 , 38 , 39 ] Other studies [ 45 , 49 ] [ 43 ] identified accommodation factors, particularly flexible appointment systems, reduced waiting times and co-location with allied health services as key enablers. In this review, a number of motivational factors were identified for people to attend services, including support or referral from family members, higher motivation to look after oneself following the death of a family member, and motivation texts or invitational messages for health check from service providers [ 32 , 41 , 53 ]. In addition, one study identified providing financial incentives as an enabler for health checks [ 32 ].

Unaddressed social determinants prevent access to primary care services: Barriers to accessing primary health care services related to socio-economic factors, health system factors and lack of health promotion factors. Socio-economic factors included accessibility and affordability considerations; lack of transport [ 30 , 31 , 32 , 44 , 46 , 49 , 50 , 53 , 54 , 55 ], inability to afford health and social services, and medication costs [ 31 , 32 , 44 , 47 , 49 ]. Some studies alluded to socioeconomic factors being prioritised over primary care attendance, including household crowding and food insecurity. Ensuring that services account for competing priorities, including family and cultural responsibilities, was an important enabler [ 45 , 55 ].

System related access barriers: Health system factors included high staff turnover, lack of availability of appointments, long waiting periods, physically inaccessible clinics [ 43 , 44 , 46 ], poor leadership of primary care services [ 32 , 45 , 47 , 48 , 49 ], and limited internet and computer access [ 47 ]. Inadequate awareness of available services was also problematic [ 31 , 33 , 49 ]; initiatives run by primary care services had limited uptake when the community was not made aware of these programs [ 46 ]. Health systems need to be able to deliver services and information multimodally. For example, not all patients have phones or phone credit all the time, so several forms of communication may be required.

Culturally acceptable and safe services

Enablers to deliver culturally safe and acceptable services: Cultural safety is essential to the development of a mutually respectful relationship between providers and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. A systems level approach is needed to address racism experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in primary care settings [ 30 , 44 ]. Strategies for addressing or achieving cultural safety varied by context, but the role of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander healthcare workers including cultural brokerage was emphasised in two studies [ 31 , 52 ]. The need for gender-specific services and gender sensitivity was emphasised by five papers as an important part of providing culturally safe care. This included delivery of programs such as gender-based exercise groups, private consultation areas for males and females, gender specific health assessment days, and employing male and female Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander healthcare workers [ 31 , 41 , 45 , 46 , 52 ]. The provision of culturally safe services also included a need for culturally appropriate education materials, artwork, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people’s voices and images as signifiers of belonging [ 30 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 53 ]. Three studies recognised the importance of enabling Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients and staff access to flexibly attend to family, community, cultural and spiritual responsibilities, and obligations to provide a culturally safe service [ 37 , 42 , 44 ]. One study identified the need for robust anonymous feedback systems for staff and patients to improve culturally safe care delivery [ 47 ].

Barriers to deliver culturally safe and acceptable services: Barriers to delivering culturally safe and acceptable services related to systems, structures and lived experiences. Systems issues to providing culturally safe services included language barriers [ 32 ], poor health literacy among patients [ 54 ], long wait times due to staff shortages [ 32 , 50 , 54 ], a sense that services were superficial/rushed [ 31 , 42 ], and lack of physical space to provide holistic care or gender-based services [ 43 , 44 , 46 ]. Lived experiences of treatment of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people within Western systems, including health and social services, elicits feelings of harm rather than help: a fear of discrimination and racism was a key barrier to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander patients accessing healthcare services in five studies [ 31 , 32 , 44 , 49 , 53 ] alongside fear of diagnosis due to historical trauma [ 53 ]. These barriers were amplified where there was limited access to Indigenous-specific services [ 32 , 44 , 46 ]. One study mentioned a tokenistic approach where very limited community input to governance, planning, and program design was sought to develop culturally safe initiatives [ 46 ].

This is the first review since 2014 [ 13 ] to present the barriers and enablers of implementing chronic disease prevention and management programs for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. The enablers and barriers found in this study have several policy and practice implications that should be considered in design, implementation, and funding targets for future chronic disease prevention and management programs.

The most striking addition to our findings, relative to the 2014 [ 13 ] review, is the acknowledgment of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture (including staff, protocols, leadership, practices and ways of doing business) as a key enabler to engagement and care delivery. Partly, this is attributable to this review’s narrower focus on the Australian context. It also likely reflects increasingly detailed academic descriptions of the ways in which leadership and governance tangibly affect care delivery as part of contemporary Closing the Gap reform. All studies included in this review made some acknowledgement of culture, albeit with variations in how deeply culture was considered as an enabler of care. Our review team grappled with how best to reflect this focus on culture, given that it is both a distinct concept and intimately embedded in all thematic domains. Ultimately, we have chosen to keep Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture as a separate domain to ensure that culture is given independent consideration, in addition to attention within other thematic domains. It is evident that access to culturally appropriate, affordable and comprehensive services are vital for preventing and managing chronic conditions [ 37 ]. There is no one-size-fits-all approach for models of care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, and programs must be tailored to local context. Recent studies have identified numerous opportunities for improving access to primary care services: creating welcoming spaces, improving the cultural safety of healthcare services, building strong trustworthy relationships between patients and providers, and building primary healthcare workforce capacity [ 37 , 57 , 58 ]. The span of this theme is necessarily broad, encompassing Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leadership, physically welcoming spaces, training for non-Indigenous staff, time to build trusting relationships. Ensuring that culture is prospectively and proactively considered in funding and delivery of primary care of chronic disease should be a priority for practitioners and policy makers.

There is clear evidence that addressing holistic needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people enables greater engagement, rather than a narrow clinical focus on physical aspects of health. This requires primary care services to acknowledge and address the broader social and cultural determinants of health for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Many of these have a direct impact on both chronic disease risk factors and capacity to access care (chronic disease management), including poor access to healthy and nutritious food, inadequate housing, rurality, lack of transportation, and financial barriers [ 59 , 60 ].Some of these disparities more pronounced in remote and rural Australia, where Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities are further marginalised by distance and poverty [ 61 , 62 ]. Enablers of chronic disease care, such as outreach services, transportation, and referrals networks to other allied health and community groups are more likely to be effective where holistic approaches are adopted. This is consistent with data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare highlighting the experiences of social inequity in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities and the positive impact on health outcomes when inequities are reduced [ 63 ]. Previous studies [ 13 , 64 ] have identified various obstacles to accessing primary health care services which include inadequate infrastructure, inflexible and inadequate funding to care for people holistically. Evidence also suggests that for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, travel to access health care means being separated from their country, family and social network that directly impacts their health and wellbeing as described by Milroy’s Dance of Life [ 65 ]. While government subsidies are in place, travel and accommodation costs incurred by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to access healthcare, may require upfront payment or indirect costs, perpetuating financial barriers for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living in rural and remote areas [ 66 ]. Therefore, it is crucial that primary health care initiatives take a holistic and system thinking approach to program design, considering the impact of social and cultural determinants on the health of individual, family members and their communities, with every attempt to reduce systemic barriers to access to healthcare where possible.This is only possible when funding mechanisms and models of care are flexible enough to account for local and individual contexts.

The profound impact of workforce was clear throughout this review. Recruiting, and retaining staff and effective training, were found to be key barriers to implementing and maintaining holistic patient-centred chronic disease prevention and management programs [ 13 , 67 ]. Evidence has shown that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people prefer support delivered by Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander staff and clinicians who have a better understanding of Indigenous wellbeing [ 64 , 68 ]. Despite the growth of the Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander health workforce over time, this expansion has not matched the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population growth [ 69 ] and increasing incidence of chronic disease. Unsurprisingly, being members of the community, they serve, Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander Health Workers play an essential and unique role in delivering culturally safe and holistic care. However, a demanding work environment, low salary, inadequate support, [ 70 ] and demanding cultural brokerage with non-Indigenous colleagues [ 70 , 71 ] contribute to burnout that contributes to poor retention rates of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander primary care staff. This requires urgent attention, by individual primary care providers and through the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Workforce Strategic Framework and Implementation Plan 2021 – 2031 [ 72 ]. Given the ongoing need for the non-Indigenous workforce in fulfilling workforce gaps required to deliver services for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, building cultural competence, continuing appropriate training and education pathways and strategies, providing job security and adequate remuneration are also crucial to address primary care workforce issues including the overburdening of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander workforce [ 58 , 71 , 73 ]. Our findings highlight the need to develop the overall chronic disease workforce, with a specific focus for recruitment and retention of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Workers and Practitioners and providing cultural safety training for all non-Indigenous staff. Alongside this, mechanisms for recognising the value and load of cultural mentorship/education should be developed. This reflects a recent research findings that showed 39% of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander workers ( n  = 1033) across Australia experienced high cultural load in terms of extra work demands and their engagement in educating others [ 74 ].

Chronic disease management requires multidisciplinary team input for effective care delivery [ 75 ]. When optimally resourced, primary care can serve a coordinating role in patient care, and effectively ensure patients have access to all allied health and specialist care they need [ 76 ]. Therefore, in order to engage Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with chronic disease care and maintain continuity of care, there needs to be established, streamlined, and practitioner and patient friendly systems in place [ 76 , 77 ]. Existing evidence also documented inadequate number of general practitioners and lack of specialists in rural and remote settings of Australia compared to urban or city areas which hinders individuals, particularly Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, to receive timely treatment for their co-occurring conditions in an integrated care approach [ 78 , 79 ]. A lack of integrated IT systems, poor infrastructure, and poor communication between primary care team members were found in this review to impede provision of such care. It is evident that strategies like GP care plans and tertiary care follow up are important sources of information for primary care providers, hospitals and patients which are supported by IT infrastructure [ 80 ]. Previous research highlighted the feasibility of system integration through utilising continuous quality improvement processes and community co-design [ 81 ]. Infrastructure investment such as internet access, in-house IT support and automated systems for follow-up care, is urgently required to ensure that patients who do present or engage with primary care in regional or remote settings, are retained in the system to enable coordinated access to the multidisciplinary care required for chronic disease management. Moreover, rapidly evolving technology such as tele-health, videoconferencing and Point-of-Care Testing may can facilitate access to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in remote and rural areas. However, implementing these tools should be part of broader strategy rather than a substitute for solving problems faced by PHC such as workforce retention, undersupply or maldistribution issues [ 82 ]. Therefore, when implementing an integrated team care program [ 83 ] or any other integrated model of care, both barriers and facilitators identified herein should be applied to improve the continuity of care with considering the context.

Effective engagement of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities and their leadership in program design, delivery and evaluation of chronic disease programs is integral to improving Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health and increasing access to primary care services [ 84 , 85 ]. Previous studies have identified the following factors that enable engagement with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities: employment of local Aboriginal health workforce; trust and relationships; Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander leadership; availability of flexible services to address holistic needs of local communities; benefits of engagement in service design and delivery; cost of participation and recognition of local Aboriginal knowledge and cultural traditions on study design implementation and dissemination [ 84 , 86 , 87 , 88 ]. These enablers align with those reported in health service research that engaged with Indigenous and marginalised communities in an international context [ 89 ]. Similarly, this review identified a range of impeding factors to engagement of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with primary health care. Key factors included: a fear or lack of trust on mainstream health facilities, lack of respect from health care providers, experiences of interpersonal and structural racism, lack of understanding of cultural differences to initiate an open discussion and a narrow concept of health that fails to consider the Aboriginal definition of health which is more comprehensive than the Western biomedical perspective of health that focuses on treating health conditions [ 90 , 91 , 92 ]. Evidence also shows that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in rural and remote communities do not have equitable access to PHC services, including lack of local available services to meet their holistic needs, inadequate infrastructure, high costs, long travel distance and insufficient workforce [ 59 , 93 ]. Therefore, trustful, and culturally safe engagement of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities through all aspects of the program design, implementation and evaluation is essential to program success, and where possible, the Aboriginal Health Workforce and ACCHOs should be utilised.

Policy and practice recommendations: This study identified several policy and practice recommendations (Table  3 ) that need to be considered for the implementation of chronic disease prevention and management programs for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in primary care. Our recommendations align with Australia’s Primary Health Care 10 Year Plan 2022–2032 ($632.8 million new investment) that has identified three streams of work: future focused health care; person-centred primary health care supported by funding reform; and integrated care, locally delivered [ 94 ].

Strengths and limitations

Strengths of the present study include (i) the generation of an evidence summary required to guide policy and practice is a short time frame, (ii) the application of iterative process from the design to completion of review with engagement of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander researchers and Thiitu Tharrmay Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Reference Group members rather than Thiitu Tharrmay Aboriginal Reference Group members , (iii) a quality appraisal of the included studies using Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Quality Appraisal Tool that privileges Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people’s ways of knowing, being, doing and (iv) interpretation of findings validated by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander knowledge champions.

One limitation of this review was that search was restricted to only two databases as the decision makers seek the evidence is a short period of time and were based on peer reviewed articles published in English language. We also acknowledge that the findings might not be comprehensive as the review was conducted in short timeframe, limitations in key words used and subjected to publication bias, as we omitted published program reports, grey literature, and policy guidelines from our inclusion criteria. Moreover, our search was limited to specific databases and terms, which could result in overlooking articles present in other databases or identified through alternate search terms. Despite these limitations, this review is Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander researchers led that allowed Indigenous perspectives and knowledge to be integrated in the evidence synthesis; ensuring findings are meaningful for the broader sector.

This rapid review synthesises the barriers and enablers to designing and implementing chronic disease prevention and management programs for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities. While there is no one-size-fits-all approach to the heterogeneous Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, several policy and practice recommendations are broadly applicable to service providers. These include addressing social and cultural determinants of health, developing the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and non-Indigenous chronic disease workforce, supporting multidisciplinary teams through strengthening clinical care pathways, and engaging Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities in design and delivery of chronic disease prevention and management programs. This requires funding mechanisms and models of care that are flexible enough to account for local and individual context through policy and practice reforms. Moreover, enabling place-based partnerships to develop local and population-based strategies that align with community priories and aspiration is crucial for tackling increasing burden of chronic disease.

Availability of data and materials

All available materials are available as Additional material.

Abbreviations

Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Organisations

Medicare Benefits Schedule

Cardiovascular Disease

Chronic Kidney Disease

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Protocols

SelecTing Approaches for Rapid Reviews

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful for the support of Chelsea Liu assisted with the use of the Quality Appraisal Tool and the support of Dr. Deborah Wong (Research Coordinator- Chronic Disease | Cervical Cancer) in designing Fig. 2 . We would also like to acknowledge Thiitu Tharrmay Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Reference Group members rather than Thiitu Tharrmay Aboriginal Reference Group members  at the National Centre for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Wellbeing Research at the Australian National University for their continuous feedback without which this research piece wouldn’t have been completed.

The authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions or policies of their affiliated institutions.

This work was supported by funding from the Australian Government Department of Health-—First Nations Health Division. The funding body had no role in the writing of this article.

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Uday Narayan Yadav and Rosemary Wyber have contributed equally to this work.

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National Centre for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Wellbeing Research, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Uday Narayan Yadav & Rosemary Wyber

Centre for Primary Health Care and Equity, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

Uday Narayan Yadav

Melbourne Medical School, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

Jasmine Meredith Davis

The George Institute for Global Health, Sydney, Australia

Keziah Bennett-Brook & Julieann Coombes

Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, WA, Australia

Rosemary Wyber

South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, Adelaide, SA, Australia

Odette Pearson

Faculty of Health and Medical Science, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia

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Conceptualization & original draft: Uday Narayan Yadav and Rosemary Wyber. Data curation: Uday Narayan Yadav, Jasmine Meredith Davis and Rosemary Wyber. Review, edits and revision: Uday Narayan Yadav, Jasmine Meredith Davis, Keziah Bennett-Brook, Julieann Coombes, Rosemary Wyber and Odette Pearson.

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Study characteristics.

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Meta aggregated study findings.

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Yadav, U.N., Davis, J.M., Bennett-Brook, K. et al. A rapid review to inform the policy and practice for the implementation of chronic disease prevention and management programs for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in primary care. Health Res Policy Sys 22 , 34 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-024-01121-x

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• What is Mach Trimming? In Depth Discussion with Bryan Litz (22LR Breakthrough)

One of my favorite things about SHOT Show is the opportunity to sit down and talk with Bryan Litz of Applied Ballistics . This year’s discussion was incredibly insightful and deep – watch the full video for Bryan’s latest research on rimfire! 

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About Applied Ballistics 

Bryan Litz, founder of Applied Ballistics and Chief Ballistician for Berger Bullets , is a world renowned expert in long range shooting, data, and ballistics. 

From Applied Ballistics : 

Applied Ballistics’ mission is to be a complete and unbiased source of external ballistics information for long range shooters. We’re highly active in R&D, constantly testing new claims, products and ideas for potential merit and dispensing with the marketing hype which can make it so difficult for shooters to master the challenging discipline of long range shooting. We believe in the scientific method and promote mastery thru understanding of the fundamentals. Our work is passed on to the shooting community in the form of instructional materials which are easy to understand, and products such as ballistic software which runs on many platforms. If you’re a long range shooter who’s eager to learn about the science of your craft, we’re here for you.

Rimfire Research

Bryan explained that rimfire is something he’s been wanting to investigate for a long time, particularly due to the very different things he’s heard about it compared to centerfire. 50 and 100 yard rimfire has been around for so long it’s well-understood, but as NRL22 and PRS shooters push the limits of .22 LR, many have more questions than answers. 

.22 LR is subsonic, which means it doesn’t have a characterizing stability formula like the Miller Stability Formula for supersonic centerfire. In essence, predicting .22 LR stabilities and trajectories at ranges it wasn’t designed for is uncharted territory. Many wonder why a ballistic solver will kick out very accurate numbers out to 200 yards for .22 LR, then it seemingly becomes less accurate. Some shooters assume it’s a mistake they’re making when it really comes down to the ballistic coefficient. According to Applied Ballistics’ doppler radar research, a .22 LR ballistic coefficient, both G1 and G7, is a poor match for the actual subsonic drag model of the bullet. Though a rimfire bullet’s shape is most similar to G1, the RA4  drag model for air rifle pellets/slugs is actually the closest representation, but it’s not perfect.  At the current time, Bryan believes the fix for this will be having well-established doppler radar profiles for every rimfire type and/or a different standard to reference the ballistic coefficient to. 

Mach Trimming

Bryan first discovered Mach Trimming when working with SK long range and later observed it with Lapua high-velocity ammunition. Rimfire ammunition with a muzzle velocity near the speed of sound will experience extremely high drag at the sound barrier. It will slow down extremely quickly then proceed to coast at this subsonic speed. This really comes into play with quick, successive shots. Consider firing a string of 10 shots with the average velocity at the speed of sound— half of the shots are above, half are below. Also assume the velocity spread would be 40 fps.

If the faster half of those shots were slowed down as soon as they exited the barrel, immediately losing 10 fps to 20 fps, the extreme spread after 20 or 30 yards is now between 20 and 30 fps. This phenomenon is called Mach trimming and can reduce vertical shot dispersion. There are numerous caveats to this. Temperature not only affects your muzzle velocity, but also moves the speed of sound and affects bullet coatings. While extremely difficult, if you can strike the right balance, you can benefit from approximately half the vertical dispersion you would ordinarily have at that temperature. Another disadvantage to Mach trimming is that windage is most sensitive to high drag. In short, Mach trimming is great for your vertical dispersion but bad for your wind deflection. (Wind deflection is minimized if you stay subsonic from the muzzle to the target.

Mach trimming is to blame for many of the inconsistencies shooters observe at far distances. One day they will have incredibly low vertical dispersion, the next it will be all over the place with the same rifle and ammunition. .22 LR has long been considered unrepeatable, but there has never been an explanation for it, until now. While his research has been focused on .22 LR, this applies to any subsonic ammunition, like .300 Blackout and pistol ammunition. Bryan has written a soon-to-be-published paper on Mach trimming and the nuanced effects of temperature with a complete technical background and much more information. 

Group Convergence

Another area of Bryan’s rimfire research is group convergence. This took him a while to consider as he had explored centerfire group convergence (ex. Shooting better groups at 300 yards than 100 yards) and none of his software could model it. To scientifically test this in real-life, he built a shoot-through target and began screening the groups at 100 and printing at 300. Nothing supported group convergence.

He recently began investigating rimfire group convergence because the Lapua Rimfire Performance Center , screening shots at 50 and 100 meters, has observed occasional angularly smaller groups at the further distance. He modeled rimfire launch dynamics in a six-degree-of-freedom-model he built and this time was able to successfully model converging groups. There is still much more to learn about this topic and if convergence is truly beneficial.

Rimfire is an incredibly tricky topic with far more variables than centerfire. To add another issue, the shape of a lead .22 bullet is different in flight because it doesn’t have a jacket to help retain its shape. This prevents you from measuring and comparing the bullet fired and unfired. This conversation with Bryan Litz was absolutely fascinating and I look forward to his future research.

Get the Gear

Looking for more rimfire info? Check out The Science of Accuracy Academy and follow Applied Ballistics on Facebook and Instagram !

If interested in ballistics in general, also consider reading Bryan Litz’s latest book,  Modern Advancements in Long Range Shooting Vol. III . 

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Column: Polls get it right most of the time. Here’s what to be wary of

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Without polls, you can’t understand politics; with them, you can misunderstand a lot.

With both major party presidential nominations sewn up, we’re deep into the season in which fretting over polls can become an obsession. That’s especially true this year, as former President Trump holds a small but persistent edge over President Biden in most national and swing-state surveys.

That’s led many Democrats to search deep into the innards of polls in an often self-deluding search for error.

The fact is, polls continue to get election results right the vast majority of the time. They’re also an indispensable tool for democracy — informing residents of a vast and varied nation what their fellow Americans believe.

At the same time, errors do exist, often involving either problems collecting data or troubles interpreting it.

This week, let’s examine a couple of examples and take a look at how L.A. Times polls did this primary season.

A Holocaust myth?

In December, the Economist published a startling poll finding : “One in five young Americans thinks the Holocaust is a myth,” the headline said.

Fortunately for the country, although perhaps not for the publication, it’s the poll finding that may have been mythical.

In January, the nonpartisan Pew Research Center set out to see if it could replicate the finding . They couldn’t. Pew asked the same question the Economist poll asked and found that the share of Americans ages 18-29 who said the Holocaust was a myth was not 20%, but 3%.

What’s going on?

The problem isn’t a bad pollster: YouGov, which does the surveys for the Economist, is among the country’s most highly regarded polling organizations. But the methodology YouGov uses, known in the polling world as opt-in panels, can be victimized by bogus respondents. That may have been the case here.

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The latest news, analysis and insights from our politics team.

You may occasionally receive promotional content from the Los Angeles Times.

Panel surveys are a way to solve a big problem pollsters face: Very few people these days will answer phone calls from unknown numbers, making traditional phone-based surveys extremely hard to carry out and very expensive.

Rather than randomly call phone numbers, polling organizations can solicit thousands of people who will agree to take surveys, usually in return for a small payment. For each survey, the pollsters select people from the panel to make up a sample that’s representative of the overall population.

Some people join simply for the money, however, then may speed through, answering questions more or less at random. Previous research by Pew has found that such bogus respondents most often claim to belong to groups that are hard to recruit, including young people and Latino voters.

Pollsters have found evidence of organized efforts to infiltrate panels, sometimes involving “multiple registrations from people who are outside the U.S.,” Douglas Rivers, the chief scientist at YouGov and a political science professor at Stanford, wrote in an email. Those could be efforts to bolster particular causes or candidates or, more often, schemes to make money by collecting small sums over and over again.

California poll reveals how minor candidates could throw 2024 presidential race to Trump

In swing states, where Biden doesn’t have a big Democratic cushion to protect him, the impact of independent and third-party candidates could be enough to swing the outcome to Trump.

March 1, 2024

“We have a whole host of procedures to screen out these panelists,” Rivers wrote, adding that the firm was continuing to analyze what happened with the Holocaust question.

On polls of close elections, bogus respondents answering at random will usually “more or less cancel each other out,” said Andrew Mercer, senior research methodologist at Pew.

“But for something that’s very rare, like Holocaust denial,” random responses will produce error that is all on one side. “It’s going to end up inflating the incidence,” he said.

In previous research for example, Pew found that 12% of respondents in opt-in survey panels who said they were under 30 also claimed that they were licensed to operate a nuclear submarine.

The lesson here is an old one, popularized by the late astronomer Carl Sagan: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” If a poll result seems just too startling to be true, there’s a good chance it isn’t.

Leaping to conclusions

A second category of potential problems doesn’t involve the data so much as the way people, especially us journalists, interpret them — drawing definitive conclusions from less than definitive numbers.

Consider the question of how much progress Republicans are making among Black and Latino voters.

There’s no question, as I’ve previously written, that Republicans gained ground between 2016 and 2020 , especially among Latino voters who already identified as conservatives. There was also smaller movement toward the GOP among Black voters.

Column: Biden says America is ‘coming back.’ Trump says we’re ‘in hell.’ Are they talking about the same nation?

Biden and Trump offer converging narratives about the country: one optimistic, one apocalyptic. That collision is the core of the 2024 election.

March 11, 2024

Has that trend continued? Some recent surveys, including the widely cited New York Times/Siena College poll , indicate it may have accelerated. Biden has hemorrhaged support among younger Black and Latino voters, that poll has found.

In a recent article that drew a lot of attention, John Burn-Murdoch, the chief data journalist for the Financial Times, stitched together data from several different types of polls to declare that “ American politics is in the midst of a racial realignment.”

The response from many political scientists and other analysts was, in effect, “Not so fast.”

Pre-election surveys can tell you what potential voters are thinking today, but comparing them with past election returns is dicey, they noted.

If the actual results in 2024 track what the New York Times/Siena polls are currently finding, “fine, let’s talk racial realignment,” said Vanderbilt University political science professor John Sides. Until then, however, “we have to wait and see.”

Our UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times polls had a notably good year predicting elections.

The final poll before this year’s primary showed, for example, that Proposition 1, the $6.4-billion mental health bond measure backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, had support from 50% of likely voters.

This number explains why the Biden-Trump rematch is so tight

With inflation in check, Americans’ confidence in the economy has slowly started to improve. Biden’s reelection may depend on that. But some look back fondly on the economy of the Trump era.

Feb. 2, 2024

As of Thursday morning, that was almost exactly where the “yes” vote stood — 50.2% — with almost 90% of the state’s votes counted.

The poll also correctly forecast that Democratic Rep. Adam B. Schiff of Burbank and Republican former Dodgers player Steve Garvey would be the top two finishers in the primary for Senate, with Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine in third place.

In the survey, taken about a week before the election, 9% of voters remained undecided. Among those who had made up their minds, Garvey had 30% of the vote, Schiff 27% and Porter 21%, the poll found.

The poll appears to have been very close on Garvey’s number — with about 800,000 votes still to count, he has 32%, well within the poll’s estimated margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction. The survey slightly understated backing for Schiff, who also has 32%, and overstated support for Porter, who currently sits at 15%. That could mean that final group of undecided voters broke for Schiff.

That level of accuracy is not uncommon. In the 2022 midterms, for example, polls by nonpartisan groups, universities and media organizations were extremely accurate .

There’s a takeaway in all this for people interested in politics, especially in a hotly contested election year: Don’t over-focus on any individual poll, especially if it has a startling finding that hasn’t cropped up anywhere else. Be skeptical about sweeping conclusions about events that are still unfolding. And even, or maybe especially, when a poll shows your favored candidate trailing, take it for what it is — neither an oracle, nor a nefarious plot, but a snapshot in time.

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David Lauter is a senior editor at the Los Angeles Times, based in Washington, D.C. He began writing news in Washington in 1981 and since then has covered Congress, the Supreme Court, the White House under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton and four U.S. presidential campaigns. He served as Washington bureau chief from 2011 through 2020. Lauter lived in Los Angeles from 1995 to 2011, where he was The Times’ deputy Foreign editor, deputy Metro editor and then assistant managing editor responsible for California coverage.

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• Published: 23 March 2024

An application of AHP and fuzzy entropy-TOPSIS methods to optimize upstream petroleum investment in representative African basins

• Zhihua Cui 1 , 2 ,
• Olusoji Lawrence Taiwo 2 &
• Peace Mawo Aaron 3  

Scientific Reports volume  14 , Article number:  6956 ( 2024 ) Cite this article

Metrics details

• Economic geology
• Energy and society
• Socioeconomic scenarios
• Sustainability

The growing demand of China for petroleum heightens the complexities and prospects in worldwide investments, necessitating refined and strategic investment approaches. Evaluating the potential of different hydrocarbon-potential areas needs more comprehensive scientific evaluation models. This study aims to establish a Comprehensive Investment Potential of Petroleum (CIPP) framework for targeted sedimentary basins by using an integrated approach that combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy-Weighted Fuzzy TOPSIS models. We focus particularly on representative African basins to inform strategic decision-making for the Chinese overseas petroleum enterprises. We firstly interpret the geological condition of these petroleum basins by researching multiple databases and proprietary research data. Then, we use a combined approach of ranking-classification-correlation analysis to evaluate 17 representative basins, taking into account both overall and individual key performance indicators. Our findings suggest the Illizi Basin and the Offshore Côte d'Ivoire Basin could be the most favorable for investment and development. Those like Southwest African Basin warrant cautious consideration. The new evaluation model and computational workflow offer an effective workflow for assessing multiple petroleum basins. This work provides not just practical investment strategies for companies aiming for African petroleum basins, but also a transferable methodology for optimizing investment decisions.

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Introduction

As the role of petroleum resources grows in the industrial production of China, the demand has also increased over the years 1 , 2 . Compensating for domestic petroleum production shortfalls makes international upstream investment and development increasingly imperative. Nevertheless, for Chinese enterprises, this investment arena is fraught with multifaceted challenges of considerable complexity 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 . Affected by various factors such as geography, economics and politics, optimizing investment strategies have become critically important 6 . Specifically in Africa, the abundance of petroleum resources has attracted investments and developmental efforts from various countries and regions, including China and Western nations 7 . However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive and scientific methodologies for evaluating the exploration and development potential of various African basins. This absence introduces significant uncertainties for similar investors and policymakers. The lack of targeted research and scientific ranking mechanisms often leads to hesitancy among various capital stakeholders when selecting target basins for expansion.

Previous research focus on the evaluation of petroleum resource utilization and associated investment returns 8 . These studies, using a variety of evaluation methodologies, predominantly concentrate on economic dimensions such as risk investment, price volatility and rates of return on capital 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 . However, very few studies offer classification and ranking for specific regional clusters under investigation 17 .

Some research endeavors provide investment risk assessments tailored for individual countries 18 . There are also commendable studies worth noting that focus on downstream refinery-oriented overseas strategic investment 19 . However, these works rarely adopt an all-sided approach to strategic investment risk evaluation by incorporating factors like petroleum geological conditions, development status and socio-political environment. While some research does consider geological conditions, these studies often exhibit a level of simplification in their indicators and dimensions that is inadequate for comprehensive analysis 20 , 21 .

The scarcity of basin-level offshore oil investment evaluations reflects the challenge of accounting for numerous interconnected factors. Compared to assessments at the national level, evaluations at the basin level can take into account more geological conditions related to oil and gas, as these factors are of significant importance. We suggest that, in order to better evaluate the degree of oil and gas investment, replacing the national level with the basin level can highlight the effectiveness of the investment. This approach allows for a greater focus on upstream oil and gas exploration, as the majority of oil and gas reserves remain undeveloped.

Besides, in the realm of upstream petroleum industry investment, some exploratory yet little research has been conducted using various evaluation algorithms within Decision-making Support Systems (DMS) 22 . In contrast, evaluative application research in other domains demonstrates a variety of models that exhibit superior evaluation and classification results when dealing with multi-objective scenarios under complex conditions 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 . The integration of subjective and objective judgments, employing complex algorithms such as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Entropy methods, in evaluation techniques is extensively applied 27 , 28 . In the calculation of assessment indicator weights, we have considered a similar method that combines both subjective and objective factors, thereby enabling a comprehensive consideration of the indicator information of the assessment object in the most scientific manner. This model introduces a new method for assessing the overseas oil resource investment environment at the basin level.

The research gap can be identified in the assessment of the upstream oil investment potential of African basins. On one hand, previous studies or evaluation models lack consideration of the factors of oil resource utilization and seldom involve a comprehensive assessment of oil geological conditions, development status, and socio-political environments. Moreover, there is a lack of an optimized mathematical evaluation model for assessing, classifying and ranking all African oil and gas basins, with multidimensional comparisons both across and within dimensions. This presents significant uncertainty and a lack of a macro perspective for oil and gas investors when selecting target basins in the region.

Therefore, there is requirement for studies that concentrate on choosing oil resources from various geographical areas, as there is a noticeable absence of appropriate assessment frameworks specifically designed for this situation. A comprehensive consideration at the basin level, integrating both subjective and objective factors, allows investment strategies to focus more on the inherent potential of oil and gas reserves. The primary objective of this paper is to innovate upon existing comprehensive and complex evaluation models from other fields to assess the investment potential of targeted petroleum regions. This aims to deepen both the research and understanding of basin selection in the petroleum investment field, offering an advanced yet effective evaluation model as a new perspective for fellow researchers and practitioners. Specifically, this study seeks to refine the selection of representative basins in Africa for potential petroleum investment and development, providing a comprehensive evaluation framework for targeted basin clusters. This research can address the research gap by establishing a rational and effective mathematical evaluation model, filling the void of a lack of systematic, multi-level, and multi-dimensional rankings and classification systems for African oil and gas basins that can integrate the attributes of oil and gas resources with economic and social environmental factors.

To achieve this, the study leverages multiple databases and prior research materials to provide an application to evaluate the upstream petroleum investment within African basins: (1) utilize Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) to construct a multi-dimensional comprehensive indicator system, (2) use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on expert scoring and the entropy method to balance subjective and objective evaluations, thereby establishing the weights of various indicators, (3) apply an enhanced Entropy-Weighted Fuzzy TOPSIS method for comprehensive ranking and evaluation, (4) classify the evaluation results and (5) include a correlational analysis of internal key performance indicators to further enrich and validate the evaluation results.

Material and analysis

The African continent has a land area of approximately 3.02 × 10 9 km 2 , which includes over 60 petroleum resources. As of the end of 2020, the proven oil reserves of Africa stood at 125.1 billion barrels, accounting for 7.2% of the world's total reserves. Simultaneously, the proven natural gas reserves were estimated at 12.9 trillion cubic meters, constituting approximately 7% of global reserves. Africa ranks third in terms of petroleum reserves.

Although Africa has abundant petroleum reserves, progress in the petroleum and natural gas sectors has been slow. This is due to historical factors, technological limitations and complex political situations. Currently, most exploration and development efforts are focused on the edges of the continent, mainly in the east and west coasts, where resources are highly concentrated. Despite low levels of activity and clear regional imbalances in petroleum exploration and development, the improving political situation in Africa is attracting many global oil companies to the region. This suggests that investment opportunities in African petroleum field are likely to increase.

Data and qualitative analysis

In this study, we primarily rely on the most recently available data up to 2020 from the IHS and Tellus databases, as well as accumulated independent research materials, for our data sources. Specifically, we have carefully selected 17 petroleum basins in Africa that have high investment value as our research sample.

This study applies a multidisciplinary geological analysis framework that has various sub-disciplines including stratigraphy, sedimentology and structural geology to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the geological characteristics of the selected 17 petroleum basins. Additionally, we carried out an extensive review, data compilation, and analysis of historical and current exploration activities for each selected basin. This includes confirmed petroleum fields, ongoing exploration projects, as well as regions with future exploration potential. Moreover, we assessed the current development status of each basin, which covers existing development projects and related technological requirements, and conducted quantitative estimations of petroleum reserves based on available data. Beyond geological and engineering considerations, this study further involves a multi-dimensional analysis incorporating political, economic, and cultural factors. Finally, and significantly, we highlight that all indicators are considered to be within an acceptable range, in which they display a proportional relationship, implying that higher values signify either improved or deteriorated outcomes accordingly.

Interpretation and quantitative evaluation

We conducted in-depth interactive survey questionnaires and focused discussions. Based on the compilation and summary of the data and materials, we first carried out a detailed interpretation of the petroleum basin clusters. This deconstruction work was conducted based on multiple factors such as geographical location, petroleum reserves, development difficulty and political stability, aiming to facilitate a more systematic understanding of the characteristics of each basin. Then, upon completing the geological analysis, we employed a standardized scoring system to quantitatively evaluate each basin in terms of stratigraphy, sedimentology and structural geology. This evaluation system was collaboratively developed and aims to provide an objective and comparable method for assessing the geological conditions of each basin. Finally, we collected and organized a large volume of raw data, including information on petroleum reserves, historical records of exploration activities and technological requirements from sources above. This data was carefully sorted and organised for use in the following statistical and computational models, for providing a more precise quantitative assessment of petroleum reserves and development potential.

Classifying indicators

We have exhaustively listed all important indicators and formed a comprehensive set of indicators, establishing classifications between subjective and objective indicators. As shown in Table 1 , for modeling purposes, these subjective indicators are marked as S , while the objective ones are labeled as S&R . We generated subjective evaluation values (1–10) for all indicators. For some indicators with precise objective evaluation values, these subjective values will be combined through subsequent work to ensure the comprehensiveness and depth of this study on evaluation modeling. The principle of classifying these subjective and objective factors is mainly based on whether they have precise numerical data, derived from multiple accessible databases.

Preparation and methods

To comprehensively assess the investment potential in petroleum resources for the 17 representative basins in Africa, this study developed an integrated evaluation model. The model combines three algorithmic methods: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy Method and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), forming a comprehensive evaluation workflow (Fig.  1 ). This evaluation system takes into account both subjective factors like expert opinions and objective indicators to provide a more accurate quantification of the investment value for each basin.

Workflow diagram of the whole evaluation process.

Modeling strategy

This study utilizes a multi-dimensional, multi-faceted comprehensive indicator system for evaluation. For international petroleum companies, the assessment of resource potential has considerations of petroleum reserves, exploration status, as well as the availability of local infrastructure support, as indicated in related research 29 .

Following in-depth discussions by our panel of experts, we identified three primary indicators: exploration status, development and production capabilities and local environmental conditions. To further refine these primary indicators, we applied Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) for optimization. The ISM method is capable of decomposing a complex system into multiple key elements and revealing the inherent logical and structural relationships among these elements through matrix operations and topological analysis 17 , 30 . This model offers decision-making support in an intuitive and dynamic manner and excels in comprehensiveness, flexibility and scientific validity. Using this method enables a more comprehensive quantification and comparison of the resource utilization potential across various petroleum basins in Africa.

In this study, we address a complex multi-objective ranking problem, assessing the investment potential in upstream petroleum in African basins across various dimensions. Given the complexity and multidimensionality of this issue, we opted for a combined approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy-Weighted Fuzzy TOPSIS method, aiming to introduce an innovative evaluation framework to the oil and gas investment decision-making domain 31 , 32 . The choice of this methodology is grounded in its proven effectiveness in handling complex decision-making scenarios across diverse fields such as engineering, management and environmental science. AHP facilitates the clarification of the decision-making structure within a multi-tiered framework, allowing for the determination of relative importance of different factors through expert scoring. Meanwhile, the Entropy-Weighted Fuzzy TOPSIS method leverages objective data to manage uncertainty and fuzziness, thus integrating expert judgment with data objectivity in the final ranking. The advantage of this integrated methodological approach in our research lies in its ability not only to enhance the accuracy and reliability of evaluations but also to provide a fresh perspective and tool for research and practice in the oil and gas investment decision-making field.

Weight calculation

This study cornerstone is constructing a robust evaluation metric system and precisely quantifying each metric's weightage. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) serves as a multi-criteria decision-making approach that facilitates the decomposition of complex issues into more manageable components by constructing a hierarchical model. This method is particularly effective for establishing the relative importance between hierarchical levels through a series of pairwise comparisons 31 , 33 . Herein, AHP is used to prioritize the subjective criteria layer and to determine the top-level weightage for the composite potential index system of petroleum resources. The key point hinges on the incorporation of subjective elements, specifically the expertise and industry experience of a panel of experts with relevant domain knowledge. Through iterative discussions and analyses, these experts collaboratively establish the intra-layer priority sequence for all three layers of indicators, as well as contribute to the definition of evaluation criteria and hierarchical structure.

The Entropy Weight Method is an objective weight-determination technique grounded in Information Theory 34 , 35 , 36 . This method capitalizes on the intrinsic information contained within raw data to minimize the interference of subjective judgments. It accomplishes this by analyzing the dispersion or uncertainty associated with each indicator to ascertain its weight. By integrating objective factors into the subjective elements, this method renders the weight allocation process more rational and scientifically robust. Within the framework of our model, the Entropy Weight Method is to determine the weightage of the middle layer of the indicator system, thereby ensuring both objectivity and accuracy in the evaluation process.

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) leverages the insights and experience of experts to establish subjective weightings, while the Entropy Weight Method contributes to the determination of objective weightings. This dual approach ensures the rationality of the evaluation, making the entire assessment process both comprehensive and precise. Sole reliance on either subjective or objective evaluation methods could result in biases stemming from expert preferences or the neglect of valuable experiential insights. The granularity of our indicators incorporates both subjective and objective elements. This amalgamation not only enriches the model with the invaluable expertise of professionals but also objectifies the complexity and scientific rigor of the process. Such a synergistic integration accentuates the unique advantages of our model.

Specific steps for calculating composite weight indicators through the integration of both methods are below:

Construct a hierarchical model and judgment matrix.

Hierarchical model: The model comprises three layers: the Objective Layer (L1), the Criteria Layer (L2), and the Alternative Layer (L3).

Judgment matrix: Use Saaty 1–9 scale method to construct the judgment matrix \(A=({a}_{ij}{)}_{n\times n}\) .

Perform hierarchical single sorting and consistency testing to determine the subjective weights in the analytic hierarchy process.

Data Normalization and Constructing the Normalized Judgment Matrix: \({a}_{ij}=\frac{{a}_{ij}}{\sum_{j=1}^{n} {a}_{ij}},\) where \(i,j=\mathrm{1,2},\dots ,n\) .

Weight Vector: Compute the average sum of the elements in each row of matrix A, i.e., \({w}_{i}=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{j=1}^{n} {a}_{ij}\) , , where \([{w}_{1}\dots {w}_{n}{]}^{T}\) , is the desired eigenvector.

Maximum Eigenvalue: Calculate \({\lambda }_{{\text{max}}}=\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} \frac{(A\omega {)}_{i}}{{\omega }_{i}}\) .

Consistency Index: the consistency index of the judgment matrix as \(CI=\frac{{\lambda }_{{\text{max}}}-n}{n-1}\) .

Calculate the Consistency Ratio: Set the Consistency Ratio as \(CR=\frac{CI}{RI}\) , where is the average random consistency index of the judgment matrix. A smaller CR indicates better consistency of the matrix.

Perform data standardization and calculate the objective weights of information entropy.

Data standardization: Construct the assessment matrix \(Y=({y}_{ij}{)}_{n\times m}\) and normalize it to \({E}_{ij}=\frac{{y}_{ij}}{\sum_{j=1}^{m} {y}_{ij}}\) .

Information entropy: The value of indicator i is \(H\left(i\right)=-\frac{1}{{\text{ln}}m}\sum_{j=1}^{m} {E}_{ij}{\text{ln}}{E}_{ij}\)

Entropy weight for each indicator: The entropy weight of indicator i can be expressed as \({w}_{i}^{ }=\frac{1-H\left(i\right)}{\sum_{i=1}^{n} \left(1-H\left(i\right)\right)}\) . The final vector of indicator weights obtained through the entropy weight method is \({W}_{i}=\left({w}_{1}^{ },\dots ,{w}_{i}\right)\) .

Calculate composite weights.

Combine subjective and objective weight information from Steps 2 and 3. The calculation formula for composite weights is

\({W}_{j}=\left(\frac{{\alpha }_{j}{\beta }_{j}}{\sum_{j=1}^{n} \sqrt{{\alpha }_{j}{\beta }_{j}}}\right)\) where \({\alpha }_{j}\) and \({\beta }_{j}\) are the subjective and objective weights respectively, and \({W}_{j}\) is the composite weight factor.

Through these steps, this hybrid model allows the combination of subjective and objective assessments to analyze and evaluate complex issues in a consistent and comprehensive manner.

Evaluation model construction

Incorporating the principles of fuzzy evaluation, the model utilizes fuzzy relational calculus to quantify factors that are traditionally non-quantifiable 37 . The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), a multi-criteria decision-making method grounded in distance metrics 38 . TOPSIS employs the distance to both the ideal and anti-ideal solutions as criteria for ranking alternative scenarios, thereby revealing their relative merits and demerits 39 , 40 . Conventional TOPSIS methodologies often require a substantial volume of baseline data, with the assessment objective being that the closer an alternative is to the ideal solution, the more likely it is to approach the anti-ideal solution. To address this limitation, the present study employs an enhanced Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) to consolidate the foundational data. Subsequent computational steps are executed once the evaluative indicators within the framework of Structural Equation Modeling is definitively established.

Weighted standardized evaluation matrix.

The Z-score, also known as the standard score, serves as a statistical measure that describes the distance of an observed value from the mean of the entire dataset, expressed in units of standard deviation 41 . We transform the initial dataset into Z-scores, which are values that adhere to a standard distribution with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one compared to the raw data. This normalization facilitates more straightforward comparisons across multiple datasets. Standardization is carried out using the Z-score method.

Then, calculate the weighted and normalized assessment matrix \(Q=({q}_{ij}{)}_{p\times q}\) , where \({q}_{ij}={q}_{ij}\cdot {v}_{i}\) and the weights are determined using a specific weight allocation method:

\({a}_{ij}\) is an element in the original assessment matrix.

\({\mu }_{i}\) is the mean of the column i.

\({\sigma }_{j}\) is the standard deviation of the j column.

Positive and negative ideal solutions in exponential form

The exponential calculation method will be used to highlight key or significant indicators in the positive and negative ideal solutions more explicitly, aiming to facilitate more accurate subsequent analysis.

Ideal Positive Solution Q+: For each indicator, select the optimal value from all the alternative options. If the c indicator is of the "the larger, the better" type, choose the maximum value; if it is of the "the smaller, the better" type, opt for the minimum value. Combine these values into a vector to obtain the Ideal Positive Solution.

where the selection of either the maximum or minimum depends on the nature of the criteria.

Ideal Positive Solution Q-: In contrast to the Ideal Positive Solution, the Ideal Negative Solution selects the least desirable value for each criterion. For criteria of the "the larger, the better" type, choose the minimum value; for those of the "the smaller, the better" type, opt for the maximum value. Combine these values into a vector to obtain the Ideal Negative Solution.

Similarly, the choice of maximum or minimum depends on the nature of the criteria.

Grey relational matrix using the improved grey relational formula.

where β is the grey relational resolution coefficient, a positive constant less than 1. It is used to adjust the calculation of grey relational degree, enhancing computational stability and sensitivity. Here, we set it to 0.5.

Grey relational coefficient matrices for the positive and negative ideal solutions using different methods.

3D spatial mapping

To optimize the classification and assessment of petroleum investment potential, we utilize a three-dimensional spatial analysis technique. By switching between various viewpoints, this approach facilitates the most straightforward visualization of the results we aim to achieve, grounded in our evaluative modeling studies. The coordinates for the basin can be ascertained using the following equations:

Three key indicators: Exploration Status (X), Development and Production Status (Y) and Local Environmental Conditions (Z)

Mapped onto the XYZ axes in three-dimensional space:

The coordinates of the basin are determined by the following formula:

where \({\text{X}}_{i} , {\text{Y}}_{i} and {\text{Z}}_{i}\) respectively represent indicators of Exploration Status, Development and Production and Local Environment.

Map the original data of transformation functions ( \({{\varvec{f}}}_{1}\) , \({{\varvec{f}}}_{2}\) , \({{\varvec{f}}}_{3}\) ) to appropriate scales and ranges.

Standard deviation

Classifying data based on Standard Deviation is a commonly employed statistical technique for identifying the variability or dispersion within a dataset 42 , 43 , 44 . This method is frequently used for categorizing or segmenting data to facilitate easier analysis and interpretation. For a one-dimensional dataset X, with a mean μ and standard deviation σ, classification can be conducted using the following equations:

The Lower Bound is defined as \(\mu -\sigma\) , while the Upper Bound is \(\mu +\sigma\) .

In the analysis, we operate under the assumption that higher values within dataset X correspond to better evaluations of CIPP. Consequently, we categorize the data into three classes: "Poor" (below one standard deviation from the mean), "Medium" (within one standard deviation of the mean, either above or below), and "Good" (above one standard deviation from the mean). This classification aims for a visualization that intuitively reflects the distribution of all basins according to CIPP values across three macro-dimensions of focus: Exploration Status, Development and Production and Local Environment. Under any two dimensions of potential interest, we can categorize basins into these three tiers based on calculated results. In a more flexible three-dimensional visualization, we can quickly and selectively identify basins with the characteristics we need.

Spearman rank correlation analysis

Spearman rank correlation analysis serves as a nonparametric statistical approach for assessing the strength and directionality of the relationship between two variables 45 , 46 . This method is particularly well-suited for ordinal data or datasets that do not conform to the assumptions of a normal distribution. It offers a robust framework for evaluating correlations in nonlinear relationships, especially when the data are significantly influenced by outliers. The procedure for implementing this method is outlined as follows:

Data preparation: Ensure two sets of one-dimensional data for comparison: \(X=\{{x}_{1},{x}_{2},\dots ,{x}_{n}\} and Y=\{{y}_{1},{y}_{2},\dots ,{y}_{n}\}\) ;

Data sorting and rank assignment: Sort the two sets of data individually and assign ranks to each data point within their respective datasets. Assign them an average rank when encountering tied values.

Calculating differences: For each pair ( \(x\) , \(y\) ), calculate the rank difference \(d={\text{rank}}(x)-{\text{rank}}(y)\) .

Spearman rank correlation coefficient \(\rho\) :

where \(\sum {d}^{2}\) is the sum of the squares of all rank differences, and \(n\) is the number of observations.

Result analysis: When the value of ρ is − 1 or 1, it indicates a perfect positive or negative correlation between the two variables. When the value of ρ is close to zero, the two variables are nearly uncorrelated. When 0 < ρ < 1, it represents a positive correlation, and when − 1 < ρ < 0, it represents a negative correlation. The value of ρ helps determine the strength and direction of the correlation between the two sets of data.

Establish hierarchical indicator system

The task of identifying and deconstructing critical factors that influence the potential of petroleum resources holds crucial importance. We carefully deconstructed and ranked these factors, culminating in a final framework.

Factors affecting the potential of petroleum resources appear in our deconstructive model as three distinct tiers (Fig.  2 ). The first tier (L1) primarily encompasses foundational elements such as exploration status, resource potential, exploration progress, development and production, and local environmental conditions. These elements serve as the foundation for petroleum resource potential. The second tier (L2) delves into more specific intermediate factors like basic petroleum geological conditions, proven reserves, well density, development conditions, production conditions, resource utilization environment, and investment climate. These factors exert an indirect influence based on the foundational elements. The third tier (L3) further refines the factors from the second tier, including 32 high-level strategic elements such as source rock conditions, reservoir conditions, cap rock, and preservation conditions (Table 1 ). These elements wield decisive influence over the ultimate realization of petroleum resource potential.

Three-layer decomposition schematic of the evaluation system for CIPP.

This three-tiered analysis enables a comprehensive understanding of the complex structure and interrelationships affecting the potential for petroleum exploration. It offers robust support for further strategic planning and decision-making. The factors in each tier have been carefully selected and categorized through iterative discussions among the expert panel to ensure a holistic reflection of the multifaceted influences on petroleum resource potential. This integrated analytical approach highlights the interplay among multiple tiers of factors, revealing a complex system of influences on petroleum resource potential and providing robust theoretical support for a deeper understanding of the subject.

Develop indicator weights

To quantify the progress of various petroleum basins in terms of investable development, we adopted a series of explicit evaluation criteria and data collection methods. The potential among different petroleum basins in Africa exhibits significant disparities. Notably, basins along the East and West coasts demonstrate higher investable development potential. For this analysis, we specifically selected 17 highly representative petroleum basins as subjects of study and utilized the most recent data from the year 2020. We applied data analysis using Python 3.0 (numpy, pandas, matplotlib etc.) to determine the weightings of various indicators. This weighting system integrates both subjective and objective factors to more comprehensively assess the performance potential of each petroleum basin.

The analysis results indicate that in the first-tier indicators (L1), CIPP primarily reflects investment potential from multiple angles, focusing on three aspects: Exploration Status, Development and Production, and Local Environment. Particularly for Exploration Status, due to its reflection of petroleum reserves and development potential, it received appropriate emphasis in the weight distribution. In the second-tier indicators, the impact of Exploration Progress is most significant, with a weight of 0.314. This underscores the crucial role that petroleum reserves and exploration clarity play in investment funding. The weight distribution for other indicators is detailed in the table. Through the structured three-tier model based on CIPP, a clear combination of subjective and objective weight distribution provides a comprehensive and quantitative assessment method for considering the strategic level of transnational overseas petroleum investments.

Evaluation results

After the model analysis, we calculated the composite evaluation results for 17 key and representative basins (Table 2 and Fig.  3 ). We quantified various aspects of the petroleum development potential of these basins through a specific assessment model, including their strengths and weaknesses. This data reveals the comprehensive investment potential in petroleum resources for each basin, as well as their potential values in Exploration Status, Development and Production, and Local Environment.

Evaluation results of 17 representative petroleum basins: ( a ) three-dimensional plotting and ranking based on three L1 indicators as axes. ( b ) Bar chart of the assessment values for all basins, indicating one L0 and three L1 assessment values.

In the comprehensive analysis of petroleum basin investment potential in this study, we applied an in-depth quantitative assessment using two main discount indicators, i.e., L0 and L1, along with three sub-indicators (Exploration Status, Development and Production, Local Environment). The three-dimensional visualization (Fig.  3 a) better illustrates the distribution of these basins at the L0 level. It is evident that the point aggregation is very low, indicating significant variability among the three indicators. From the overall trend analysis (Fig.  3 b), the disparity among the three indicators across different basins is particularly large, leading to a significant difference in their overall potential. Specifically, the "llizi Basin" and "Nile Delta Basin" have L0 and L1 significantly outperform other basins and demonstrate their strong investment potential. However, the "Southwest African Basin" and "Offshore Gabon Basin" rank last, suggesting their lower investment value potential. On the L0 and L1 indicators, the "llizi Basin" and "Nile Delta Basin" performed best, while the "Southwest African Basin" and "Offshore Gabon Basin" scored the lowest. At the L1 level, the "Timimoun Basin" and "Offshore Gabon Basin" performed best in Exploration Status. The "Pelagian Basin" and "Offshore Cote d'Ivoire Basin" scored highest in Development and Production and Local Environment.

Classification

We further classified the basins, initially classifying them based on three indicators. Utilizing the classification method based on Standard Deviation, we divided each basin into four levels across these three distinct indicators. These four levels respectively represent excellence in all three indicators, followed by the next two, one, and none.

The classification results indicate that for "Exploration Status," both the "Nile Delta Basin" and "llizi Basin" are rated as "Good," while the "Kwanza Basin," "Offshore Gabon Basin," and "Southwest African Basin" are categorized as "Poor" (Fig.  4 ). In terms of "Development and Production," the "llizi Basin," "Timimoun Basin," "Offshore Cote d'Ivoire Basin," "Kwanza Basin," and "Offshore Gabon Basin" received "Good" ratings. As for "Local Environment," the "Pelagian Basin," "Offshore Cote d'Ivoire Basin," and "Mozambique Basin" performed best, in contrast to the "Sirt Basin," "Murzug Basin," "Niger Delta Basin," "Offshore Tanzania Basin," and "Southwest African Basin," which showed poorer performance on this indicator.

Classification results: ( a ) classification on the 3D plot based on the analysis of evaluation values and subsequent classification using the standard deviation model. ( b ) Basin classification on the axes of exploration status vs development and production. ( c ) Basin classification on the axes of exploration status vs development and production and local environment. ( d ) Basin classification on the axes of development and production and local environment.

The CIPP evaluation model framework provides a multi-tiered classification method, allowing petroleum investors and decision-makers to more accurately identify various investment opportunities and risks at the basin level. Since none of the selected representative investable basins fall into Type I, the classification for Categories II to IV is as follows:

Type II Basins (Illizi Basin and Offshore Côte d'Ivoire Basin): These basins typically exhibit significant advantages in resource exploration and development production. In such cases, investors may consider these basins as medium-to-long-term investment targets. Due to their strong performance in two key indicators, these basins have a higher probability of success and potential returns. However, as there is room for improvement in the third aspect (usually local environmental adaptation), investors may need additional environmental and social responsibility plans to ensure the sustainability of the projects.

Type III Basins (Nile Delta Basin, Pelagian Basin, Timimoun Basin, Kwanza Basin, Offshore Gabon Basin, Somali Basin and Mozambique Basin): These basins exhibit higher levels of risk and uncertainty. They typically excel in only one aspect while performing moderately in the other two. This implies that investors should exercise greater caution in their investment decisions and may require additional research and risk mitigation measures. For instance, if a Type III basin shows strong performance in resource exploration but is mediocre in development production and environmental adaptability, investors may need to allocate additional technical and capital resources to improve these two aspects.

Type IV Basins (Red Sea Basin, Suez Basin, Sirt Basin, Murzuq Basin, Niger Delta Basin, Offshore Tanzania Basin, Ruvuma Basin and Southwest African Basin): These are generally not ideal investment targets. These basins perform poorly across all considered factors and typically require comprehensive strategic adjustments, including improvements in exploration techniques, optimization of production processes, and enhanced environmental protection measures. Therefore, unless there are compelling reasons and preparations for large-scale reforms and investments, these basins should generally be avoided for investment.

Correlation analysis

Conducting a Spearman correlation analysis between these three key indicators can be crucial for understanding their interrelationships and optimizing resource management and policy decisions. Based on Fig.  5 a, the correlation between "Exploration Status" and "Local Environment" is relatively weak. Figure  5 b reveals a moderate positive correlation between "Exploration Status" and "Development and Production". Importantly, this result is highly statistically significant, with a p-value of merely 0.001. This suggests that basins ranking high in Exploration Status often also rank high in Development and Production. Lastly, according to Fig.  5 c, a moderate positive correlation exists between "Development and Production" and "Local Environment". This implies that basins selected for development and production often also perform well in local environmental aspects, although this positive correlation is not strong. Overall, these findings suggest a notable positive correlation between Exploration Status and Development and Production, while the association with Local Environment is comparatively weaker.

Correlation analysis with any two of the three indicators as axes: ( a ) exploration status vs development and local environment and ( b ) exploration status vs development and production, both show low correlation due to high dispersion. ( c ) Development and production vs local environment shows a certain level of correlation.

This study produces an evaluation system based on an Interpretive Structural Model to form the CIPP to assess comprehensive petroleum investment potential. This workflow integrates factors from petroleum geology as well as political, economic and cultural dimensions, adapting complex models commonly used in other fields for this assessment. In doing so, it fills a research gap in the field of transnational petroleum investment at basin level, elevating the focus beyond the primarily economic aspects that have dominated past research in this area (e.g., 11 , 12 , 15 , 30 ).

The study primarily innovates by quantitatively assessing 17 representative African oil basins through an integrated evaluation model, aiming to identify and compare the differences among these basins in terms of oil resource exploration, development potential, and their investment attractiveness. By applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy Weight Method, and Fuzzy TOPSIS technique, the research constructs a comprehensive evaluation system to quantitatively analyze each CIPP of each basin in the three aspects of Exploration Status, Development and Production and Local Environment.

The results suggest that the Illizi Basin and Offshore Côte d'Ivoire Basin are highly favorable for investment and development in petroleum resource exploration, particularly for various enterprises including those from China. This attractiveness is not solely based on abundant petroleum resources and favorable infrastructure, but also takes into account political and economic stability. However, basins such as the Offshore Tanzania Basin, Ruvuma Basin and Southwest African Basin are assessed as options that require very cautious consideration for investment. They rank low on a comprehensive level, and their limitations are not confined to just one aspect. This approach can assist Chinese or other oil and gas companies in gaining a clearer understanding at the basin level when investing in upstream oil and gas in Africa.

The optimal outcome of this ranking aligns closely with our professional opinion, which is derived from extensive experience and based on thorough investigation and analysis of a significant amount of expert outcomes. We believe that the Illizi Basin and Offshore Côte d'Ivoire Basin are the most favorable regions at the basin level for investment and development by Chinese oil and gas enterprises, based on our comprehensive assessment. These basins have been in a state of global oil and gas investment for some time, and they have relatively well-developed infrastructure and regulatory frameworks. With effort, we can successfully secure a share of the benefits. However, regarding the Tanzania Basin, Ruvuma Basin, and Southwest African Basin, although they may have considerable oil and gas reserves, the local development environment is relatively harsh, and the political risks and investment climate are also a matter for concern. Therefore, the model analysis fits our manual interpretation with a highly cautious approach to these regions.

This study categorizes 17 African oil basins into four levels based on Exploration Status, Development and Production, and Local Environment, using the standard deviation method. This classification aids investors and decision-makers in pinpointing specific investment opportunities and assessing potential risks. Basins are ranked from those excelling in all three indicators (Type II), indicating highest investment value, to those needing improvement (Type III), and those performing poorly (Type IV), reflecting varying investment appeal and development potential. Moreover, Spearman rank correlation analysis shows a moderate positive correlation between Exploration Status and Development and Production, with a weaker correlation to Local Environment. This highlights the importance of exploration status as a predictive indicator for a basin development potential but also underscores the necessity of considering a wide range of factors for comprehensive investment decisions. This approach assists in more precise resource allocation and risk management for oil and gas investments in Africa.

This study enhances the ranking of oil and gas exploration potential across various African basins and includes detailed dimensional rankings as well as comparisons between dimensions of the same level. This aspect, even for global petroleum investment field, was absent in previous studies 8 , 9 , 10 , which were primarily limited to the financial investment dimension 16 , lacking consideration of the oil and gas geological aspects of basins and downstream infrastructure levels. Furthermore, complex decision-making models have rarely been applied to such oil and gas investments before 23 , 24 . Our research, while differing slightly in analysis details and incorporating a greater number of parameters for evaluation and classification compared to similar algorithms in other domains, effectively aids in prioritizing decision analysis objectives related to complexity 27 , 28 . The application of this model provides a very good example of integration with actual investment behaviors, serving as a reference for similar decision-making fields or inspiring research on similar model applications.

This approach enhances decision accuracy, addresses uncertainty and yields clear, interpretable results, ultimately facilitating more effective decision-making. This advanced approach contributes to the algorithm advancement by handling complexity, enhances its transferability to various contexts, as well as improves its applicability in decision-making across industries and regions. More importantly, we can evaluate the ranking of each basin in-depth based on different sub-indicators and then determine the priority situation.

This modeling methodology focuses on assessing the petroleum investment potential of oil and gas basins, leveraging the practical experience of Chinese enterprises in overseas investments, specifically tailored for Africa due to its unique complexity in the mentioned aspects. Cross-regional comparisons, such as with basins in the Middle East and South America, are not considered within the framework of this model. For evaluations of specific basin groups, indicators with high commonality could be excluded in favor of new indicators with greater heterogeneity, integrating human interpretation with actual data to recalibrate weights. This model emphasizes the amalgamation of subjective and objective assessments in indicator ranking, innovatively influencing weight calculations to effectively integrate both evaluations comprehensively, departing from traditional segregations of subjective and objective metrics.

This evaluation system provides a practical application for a novel combined method for assessing petroleum basins in Africa. By classifying and quantitatively scoring these basins, petroleum investment companies can not only gain a more accurate understanding of the specific strengths and weaknesses of each basin but also systematically evaluate their potential risks and returns. The workflow is based on complex evaluation model methods that have already seen deep application in other fields 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 . This adaptation can be considered a significant contribution to the upstream petroleum resource investment.

Additionally, the classification and correlation work enrich the content of this comprehensive evaluation system. The results of the correlation study indicate that the three classification indicators, namely "Exploration Status," "Local Environment," and "Development and Production," exhibit certain interdependencies. Specifically, the first two show a moderate positive correlation, while the latter two are also related. This suggests that in petroleum basins with weak petroleum reserves but high exploration potential, there is already significant involvement from international petroleum companies, or the local government is likely to give it adequate attention.

While this study effectively evaluates petroleum basin investment potential, it also highlights limitations for future research to address. First, the current evaluation metrics need refinement to better capture the complexities of investment decisions, especially when considering multiple factors like economics and environment. Additional data, such as geological findings and market demand, should be included. Second, our model for assessing CIPP has limitations, notably in interpreting indicators such as exploration well density and success rate for example. High values do not always mean high potential, primarily due to deviations at extremely high or low data levels from the expectations of this study. Within a reasonable range (all indicators apply herein), these values demonstrate a proportional relationship, and we assume that no indicator experiences excessive conditions. Third, advanced data analytics like big data and AI should be used to improve the accuracy of investment and risk forecasts.

Lastly, robust model validation is essential to minimize biases and provide a stable basis for decision-making. Given the subjective elements involved in the evaluation process, there is a potential for bias in the presented results. However, it is important to note that our qualitative ranking of subjective interpretations relies on a thorough understanding of local contexts, strong domain expertise, and extensive discussions followed by multiple rounds of sorting and comparison to mitigate errors. To further mitigate bias, we propose several measures for future work. These include incorporating independent data sources for cross-validation, implementing expert blind review or expert validation panels, utilizing Monte Carlo simulation to address uncertainty, conducting sensitivity analyses, and validating results through comparative case studies, among other methods. These steps will enhance the reliability of investment strategies in the field of petroleum exploration and development.

This research aids China and other countries in deepening the analysis and planning of social policies related to African oil and gas investment decisions. Rationalizing Africa's oil and gas investments is crucial for enhancing energy security, advancing the Belt and Road Initiative, and strengthening Sino-African economic and political ties. Such investments not only boost China's diplomatic influence in Africa through deepened energy cooperation and solidifying friendly relations with African nations but also support China's global diplomatic policies. For African countries, rational oil and gas investments significantly spur local economic development and job creation, especially in oil and gas development and infrastructure. Moreover, improving infrastructure not only fosters African economic growth and enhances the living standards of the local population but also contributes to sustainable development goals. In the long term, Sino-African energy cooperation is expected to create a mutually beneficial situation, strengthening economic collaboration between both sides and promoting global energy market stability and development.

This study applies a complex evaluation model to explore previously uncharted territories in transnational petroleum investment, focusing on target asset evaluation, classification and ranking. This work breaks new ground in terms of research scope, methodological transferability and model innovation. The key highlighted points of this work include:

The results suggest that the Illizi Basin and Offshore Côte d'Ivoire Basin are highly favorable for investment and development in petroleum resource exploration, particularly for various enterprises including those from China. However, basins such as the Offshore Tanzania Basin, Ruvuma Basin and Southwest African Basin require very cautious consideration for investment due to their lower comprehensive potential.

This study produces an evaluation system based on an Interpretive Structural Model to assess comprehensive petroleum investment potential. The integrated evaluation model combining AHP, entropy method and fuzzy TOPSIS provides an effective and practical application model to quantify the investment potential of complex petroleum basins.

The combination of objective and subjective weighting methods renders the entire evaluation process more balanced. The classification approach reveals the relative strengths and weaknesses of different basin types, aiding investment decision-making.

A moderate positive correlation exists between exploration status and development/production potential for the basins. The classification and correlation work enrich the content of this comprehensive evaluation system.

Adaptation of complex evaluation models from other fields helps address the gap in comprehensive petroleum investment assessments.

The workflow offers strategic insights and an advanced methodology for optimizing investment decisions across industries.

This research supports China and other countries in enhancing social policy planning related to African oil and gas investments, crucial for energy security, the Belt and Road Initiative and Sino-African relations, fostering mutual economic growth, sustainable development and global energy stability.

Data availability

For reasons related to confidentiality, certain source code and interpreted data cannot be made publicly available in their entirety. If you require access, kindly reach out to the corresponding author via email. Selected important analysis data have been included in the related files.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank IHS Markit and Tellus for providing access to their oil and gas databases. Special thanks to China ZhenHua Oil Co., Ltd. for data support and to Zhejiang University for technique support.

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Zhihua Cui was responsible for the establishment of the model, manual interpretation and scoring, and manuscript writing. Olusoji Lawrence Taiwo participated in the establishment and validation of the model and polished the logic of the paper. Peace Mawo Aaron participated in manual interpretation and scoring, model validation, manuscript writing and polishing.

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Cui, Z., Taiwo, O.L. & Aaron, P.M. An application of AHP and fuzzy entropy-TOPSIS methods to optimize upstream petroleum investment in representative African basins. Sci Rep 14 , 6956 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-57445-9

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In the core regions of our galaxy, astronomers have identified two star streams that are thought to be as ancient as the Universe itself. Research utilizing data from the European Space Agency’s Gaia mission suggests these star formations predate the development of the Milky Way’s spiral arms, hailing from the era when our galaxy was in its nascent stages, beginning to cast its stellar branches into the void.

The star streams, found by astrophysicist Khyati Malhan and astronomer Hans Walter-Rix of Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, have been given the names Shiva and Shakti, drawing inspiration from Hindu creation myths.

According to Malhan, “it is quite remarkable that we can observe these primal structures at all.” He states this is because the Milky Way has evolved significantly since these stars came into being, and it would be presumed difficult to still identify them as a coherent cluster – yet, the data from Gaia has enabled this.

Scientists believe that the Milky Way began taking shape around 13 billion years ago, a period characterized by intense formation of stars and galaxies. Exploring this early chapter of our galaxy’s story is the essence of galactic archaeology, a field that seeks to trace the history of star populations that can be linked back to this ancient epoch.

This is where Gaia’s mission is proving invaluable. Gaia is meticulously charting the Milky Way, providing data regarding the three-dimensional placement of stars, their movement patterns, and their trajectories. It also measures a star’s metallicity, which infers the presence of metallic elements in a star—a clue pointing to the star’s age because metals were mainly produced by earlier generations of stars and subsequent novae.

Astronomers are able to discern star clusters that might otherwise go unnoticed by leveraging these details in tandem with Gaia’s readings. When a set of stars share a common location, motion, and similar metal properties, it suggests a shared origin.

Furthermore, these configurations give insights into the Milky Way’s past. Some stellar streams can be traced back to once cohesive star clusters, while others are remnants of foreign galaxies that have been consumed by the Milky Way’s gravitational pull.

This is exactly how Malhan and Walter-Rix stumbled upon Shiva and Shakti. By analyzing Gaia’s findings, they noticed in 2022 peculiar properties near the Milky Way’s core—a group of incredibly old, metal-deficient stars. Moreover, a little further from the center, they identified these two distinctive star streams, roughly 12 to 13 billion years old.

As Malhan recounts, visualizing the stars’ orbits revealed two prominent structures. Named Shakti and Shiva, these streams are believed to be integral to the Milky Way’s birth.

The mass of each stream is comparable to 10 million Suns, and both streams orbit in alignment with the Milky Way’s rotation. Shiva orbits are more elliptical and closer to the galactic core, whereas Shakti traces more circular paths somewhat further away.

The formation of Shiva and Shakti, the researchers propose, likely occurred independently and later became incorporated into the Milky Way as it developed. Their theory is that the galaxy originated from a primeval accumulation of matter, expanding as filaments and tendrils of stars from the cosmos coalesced around it, thus forming the earliest stars. Shiva and Shakti could indeed be two such seminal tendrils.

Tim Prusti of the European Space Agency, aligned with the Gaia project, states that unveiling details of the nascent Milky Way is one of Gaia’s objectives, a goal that is visibly being attained through this research.

“To understand the emergence and evolution of our galaxy, it’s critical to identify the subtle yet essential differences between stars within the Milky Way. This requires extraordinarily accurate data – data now at our disposal courtesy of Gaia. The discovery of unexpected parts of the galaxy, such as the Shiva and Shakti streams, enriches our comprehension of not just our current dwelling but also our most ancient cosmic past,” he explains.

The study is documented in The Astrophysical Journal .

FAQ Section

What is gaia and what does it do.

Gaia is a space observatory mission conducted by the European Space Agency that meticulously maps the Milky Way, capturing the three-dimensional positions of stars, their velocities, and proper motions, as well as measuring stellar properties such as metallicity.

How does metallicity tell us about the age of stars?

Metallicity refers to the amount of metallic elements present in a star. Since metals were not abundant until created by earlier generations of stars and supernovae, a lower metal content typically implies that the star is older.

What are Shiva and Shakti?

Shiva and Shakti are streams of ancient stars thought to be nearly as old as the Universe itself. They were discovered orbiting the center of the Milky Way by astrophysicists examining data from the Gaia telescope.

How are Shiva and Shakti related to the formation of the Milky Way?

These star streams likely represent early accumulations of stars that joined the nascent Milky Way, contributing to its growth. The streams are thought to be primordial filaments that integrated into the galaxy as it formed its spiral structure.

What is the significance of discovering Shiva and Shakti?

Identifying such ancient stellar streams helps astrophysicists understand the history and evolution of the Milky Way, offering insights into the conditions and processes present at the time of the galaxy’s birth.

The recent discovery of the Shiva and Shakti star streams using the Gaia telescope marks a significant advancement in our understanding of the Milky Way’s early history. These streams provide tangible evidence of the galaxy’s formation process, connecting us to a period close to the beginning of the Universe. With continued exploration and the high-precision data from Gaia, astronomers are piecing together the intricate story of our galactic home, revealing the complexity and marvels of the cosmos.

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Computer Science > Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition

Title: mm1: methods, analysis & insights from multimodal llm pre-training.

Abstract: In this work, we discuss building performant Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). In particular, we study the importance of various architecture components and data choices. Through careful and comprehensive ablations of the image encoder, the vision language connector, and various pre-training data choices, we identified several crucial design lessons. For example, we demonstrate that for large-scale multimodal pre-training using a careful mix of image-caption, interleaved image-text, and text-only data is crucial for achieving state-of-the-art (SOTA) few-shot results across multiple benchmarks, compared to other published pre-training results. Further, we show that the image encoder together with image resolution and the image token count has substantial impact, while the vision-language connector design is of comparatively negligible importance. By scaling up the presented recipe, we build MM1, a family of multimodal models up to 30B parameters, including both dense models and mixture-of-experts (MoE) variants, that are SOTA in pre-training metrics and achieve competitive performance after supervised fine-tuning on a range of established multimodal benchmarks. Thanks to large-scale pre-training, MM1 enjoys appealing properties such as enhanced in-context learning, and multi-image reasoning, enabling few-shot chain-of-thought prompting.

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