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Climate Change: Causes, Impacts on India & World

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This topic of “Climate Change: Causes, Impacts on India & World” is important from the perspective of the UPSC IAS Examination , which falls under General Studies Portion.

What is climate change?

• Climate Change is a periodic modification of Earth’s climate brought about due to the changes in the atmosphere as well as the interactions between the atmosphere and various other geological, chemical, biological and geographical factors within the Earth’s system.
• Climate change can make weather patterns less predictable. These unforeseen weather patterns can make it difficult to maintain and grow crops, making agriculture-dependent countries like India vulnerable.
• It is also causing damaging weather events like more frequent and intense hurricanes, floods, cyclones, flooding etc.
• Due to the rising temperature caused by climate change, the ice in the polar regions is melting at an accelerated rate, causing sea levels to rise. This is damaging the coastlines due to the increased flooding and erosion.
• The cause of the current rapid climate change is due to human activities and threatening the very survival of humankind.

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What are the factors that cause climate change?

Climate change is caused by natural factors as well as anthropogenic factors. However, anthropogenic factors create a higher impact on contemporary climate change.

Natural Factors:

There are numerous natural factors that cause the Earth’s climate to change. They affect the climate over a period of thousands to millions of years.

Continental Drift:

• The present-day continents were not the same prior to 200 million years.
• They have formed millions of years ago when the landmass began to drift apart due to plate displacement.
• This movement had an impact on climate change due to the change on the landmass’s physical features and position and the change in water bodies’ position like the change in the follow of ocean currents and winds.
• The drifting of the landmass is continued today. The Himalayan range is rising approximately 1 millimetre every year as the Indian landmass is moving towards the Asian landmass.

Variation of the Earth’s orbit:

• The Earth’s orbit has an impact on the sunlight’s seasonal distribution that is reaching the Earth’s surface.
• A slight change in the Earth’s orbit can lead to variation in distribution across the world.
• There are very few changes to the average sunshine. However, it causes a high impact on the geographical and seasonal distribution.
• There are three types of orbital variations – variations in Earth’s eccentricity, variations in the tilt angle of the Earth’s axis of rotation and precession of Earth’s axis.
• These together can cause Milankovitch cycles, which have a huge impact on climate and are well-known for their connection to the glacial and interglacial periods.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change finding showed that the Milankovitch cycles had influenced the behaviour of ice formation

Plate tectonics:

• Due to the change in the temperature in the core of the Earth, the mantle plumes and convection currents forced the Earth’s Plates to adjust leading to the rearrangement of the Earth Plate.
• This can influence the global and local patterns of climate and atmosphere.
• The oceans’ geometry is determined by the continents’ position. Therefore, the position of the continents influences the pattern of the ocean.
• The location of the sea also plays a crucial role in controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe and determines the global climate.
• The recent example of the tectonic control on ocean circulation is the formation of the Isthmus of Panama about 5 million years ago, leading to the prevention of direct mixing of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Volcanic Activity:

• When a volcano erupts, it emits gases and dust particles, causing a partial block of the Sunrays. This can lead to the cooling of the weather.
• Though the volcanic activities last only for a few days, the gases and ashes released by it can last for a long period, leading to it influencing climate patterns.
• Sulphur oxide emitted by the volcanic activities can combine with water to form tiny droplets of sulphuric acid. These droplets are so small that many of them can stay in the air for several years.

Ocean Currents:

• Ocean current is one of the major components of the climate system.
• It is driven by horizontal winds causing the movement of the water against the sea surface.
• The temperature differences of the water influence the climate of the region.

Anthropogenic Factors:

Scientists, since the beginning of the 20 th century, have studied the impact of climate change caused by human activities. Global warming, the long-term rise in the average temperature of the Earth’s climate system, is a major aspect of climate change. It is mainly a human-caused increase in global surface temperature. The anthropogenic factors causing climate change are as follows:

Greenhouse Gases:

• The greenhouse gases absorb heat radiation from the sun. Following the initiation of the Industrial Revolution, the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has increased exponentially.
• This has led to more absorption and retaining the heat in the atmosphere. This resulted in an increase in Global Temperature.
• The greenhouse gases mostly do not absorb the solar radiation but absorb most of the infrared emitted by the Earth’s surface.
• water vapour (the majority of the GHG in the atmosphere but the impact is less)
• Carbon dioxide released due to natural and anthropogenic factors spends more time in the atmosphere, leading to an increase in its impact. There has been a 30% increase in the concentration of CO 2 since the start of the industrial revolution. Apart from the industrial revolution, deforestation also contributes to the increase in the CO
• Chlorofluorocarbons , used for industrial purposes, especially in refrigerants and air conditioning, is a man-made compound regulated under the Montreal Protocol due to their adverse effects on the Ozone layers.
• Methane is released due to decomposition of organic matter. It is stronger than CO 2 because of its capacity to absorb more heat.
• Nitrous oxide is produced by the agricultural sector, especially in the production and use of organic fertilizers and while burning fossil fuels.

Change in the land use pattern:

• Half of the land-use change is said to have happened during the industrial era.
• Most of the forests were replaced by agricultural cropping and grazing of lands.
• The increased albedo (reflectivity of an object in space) in the snow-covered high altitude regions due to deforestation led to the cooling of the planet’s surface. The lower the albedo, the more of the Sun’s radiation gets absorbed by the planet and the temperatures will rise. If the albedo is higher and the Earth is more reflective, the more of the radiation is returned to space, leading to the cooling of the planet.
• The tropical deforestation changes the evapotranspiration rates (the amount of water vapour put in the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration from trees), causes desertification and affects soil moisture characteristics.
• From the satellite imagery, it is seen that the clearing of forest cover for agriculture and irrigated farming in arid and semi-arid lands can increase solar energy absorption and the amount of moisture evaporated into the atmosphere.

Atmospheric aerosols:

• Atmospheric aerosol can:
• scatter and absorb the solar and infrared radiation
• change microphysical and chemical properties of the clouds
• Solar radiation, when scattered, cools the planet. On the other hand, when the aerosols absorb solar radiation, it causes an increase in the temperature of the air instead of allowing the sunlight to be absorbed by the Earth’s surface.
• Aerosols can directly affect climate change by absorbing or reflecting solar radiation. They can also produce indirect effects by modifying the cloud’s formation and properties.
• They can even be transported thousands of kilometres away from its source through wind and upper-level circulation in the atmosphere.
• There are two types of aerosols – Natural aerosols and Anthropogenic aerosols.
• The sources of natural aerosols include volcanic eruptions (produces sulphate aerosols) and biogenic sources like planktons (can produce dimethyl sulphide).
• The anthropogenic aerosols include:
• The ammonia used for fertilizers or released by the burning of plants and other organic materials forms a major source for Nitrate aerosols.
• Burning of coal and oil produces sulphur dioxide that forms a major source of sulphate aerosols
• Burning of biomass can release a combination of organic droplets and soot particles.
• Industrial activities cause the release of wide-ranging aerosols into the atmosphere.
• Vehicle emissions can produce numerous pollutants that are aerosol from the beginning or becomes one due to chemical reactions in the atmosphere.
• It is found that the concentration of aerosols is about three times higher in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, leading to Northern Hemisphere’s radiation concentration being 50% higher than that of the Southern Hemisphere.

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What are the effects of climate change?

Global warming has caused a change in the climatic and weather conditions like change in the rainfall pattern, increased flooding, drought, heatwaves, etc. The planet’s ocean and glaciers have felt some significant changes. Oceans are currently warming and becoming more acidic. The ice caps are melting, causing the sea levels to rise. These changes are predicted to be more prominent in the coming decades, threatening our environment and existence. Some of the current impacts of rapid climate change are as follows:

A rise in atmospheric temperature:

• The greenhouse gases released due to human activities are increasing the temperature of the Earth.
• The last 6 years topped the list of hottest years ever recorded.
• The increase in temperature is the major cause of the current increase in heat-related deaths and illnesses, rise in sea levels and an increase in the intensity of natural disasters.
• The 20 th century saw an increase in the Earth’s average temperature by 1°F. This is believed to be the fastest rise in a thousand years.
• Research estimates predict that if the GHGs are not reduced, the average surface temperature could increase to 3-5°F by the end of this century.

Change in landscapes:

• Increasing temperature and changing climate and weather patterns across the globe led to the shift of trees and plants towards Polar Regions and mountains.
• As the vegetation tries to adapt to climate change by moving towards colder regions, the animals that are dependent on them will be forced to follow them for survival. While some survive, many perish in the attempt.
• Other species like polar bears dependent on cold terrains will not have any habitat due to the melting of ice, causing a risk to their survival.
• Thus, the current hasty change in the landscape causes a considerable risk to the survival of many species, including the human population.

A risk to the ecosystem:

• An increase in the temperature across the globe is changing the weather and vegetation patterns, making the species to migrate to cooler areas for survival.
• This poses a threat to the survival of numerous species. It is projected that by 2050, one-fourth of the Earth’s species may become extinct if the current trend continues.

Rising sea levels:

• An increase in the temperature of the Earth leads to a rise in sea level due to the thermal expansion (a condition wherein the warm water takes up more area than cooler water). The melting of glaciers adds to this problem.
• The population living in under-lying areas, islands and coasts are threatened by the rising sea levels.
• It erodes shorelines, damage properties and destroys ecosystems like mangroves and wetlands that protect coasts from storms.
• In the last 100 years, the sea level has risen to 4-8 inches and will continue to rise between 4 and 36 inches in the next 100 years.

Ocean Acidification:

• The increase in the CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased the CO 2 absorption in the ocean. This makes the ocean acidic.
• The increase in the acidification of the ocean can be harmful to many marine species like plankton, molluscs, etc. The corals are especially susceptible to this as they find it difficult to create and maintain the skeletal structures needed for their survival.

Increase in the risk of natural and manmade disasters:

• The moisture from land and water is rapidly evaporating due to the high atmospheric temperature.
• This causes drought. Those areas that are affected by drought are highly susceptible to the negative effects of flooding.
• As this current condition, the droughts may become more frequent and more severe. This may lead to distressing consequences for agriculture, water security, and health.
• Countries in Asia and Africa are already facing this phenomenon, with droughts becoming longer and more intense.
• The increased temperature is not only causing droughts but also increasing the cases of forest fires across the globe.
• Climate change is also causing increased and intensified hurricanes and tropical storms, causing a devastating impact on human societies and the environment.
• The cause of this is the rise in the ocean temperature as warm waters influence the hurricanes and tropical storms energies.
• The other factors that cause intensified hurricane and tropical storms are raising sea levels, disappearing wetlands and increased coastal development.

Health issues:

• The high temperature across the globe can pose health risks and deaths.
• The increased heat waves caused by climate change have led to the deaths of many globally.
• For instance, in 2003, the extreme heatwaves led to the death of more than 20,000 people in Europe and caused more than 1,500 deaths in India.
• Climate change increases the spreading of contagious diseases as the long-term warm weather allows disease-carrying insects, animals and microbes to survive longer.
• Disease and pests that were once confined to the tropics may find it habitable in the colder regions that were previously inhospitable.
• Currently, there is an increase in death due to extreme heat, natural disasters and diseases due to climate change.
• World Health Organisation estimates that between 2030 and 2050, climate change may cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and extreme heat.

Economic impacts:

• It is estimated that if action is not taken to address the carbon emissions, climate change could cost about 5 to 20% of the annual global GDP.
• In contrast, the cost to lessen the most damaging effects of climate change is just 1% of the GDP.
• Climate change can alter shoreline habitats. This may lead to the need for relocation of ports and near-shore infrastructures and habitats, costing about millions of dollars.
• The increased hurricanes and other related natural disasters can bring forth extreme economic losses caused by damaged properties and infrastructures.
• Declining crop yields due to the lengthy droughts and high temperatures can lead to a risk of starvation of thousands of people.
• Coral reefs generate approximately $375 billion each year in goods and services. Their very survival is currently under threat.

Agriculture productivity and food security :

• The crop cultivation is dependent on solar radiation, favourable temperature and precipitation.
• Hence, agriculture has always been dependent on climate patterns.
• The current climate change
• has affected agricultural productivity, food supply and food security.
• These effects are biophysical, ecological and economic.
• They resulted in:
• Climate and agricultural zones are moving towards poles
• There is a change in the agricultural production pattern due to increased atmospheric temperature
• Agricultural productivity has increased due to the rise in CO 2 in the atmosphere.
• Unpredictable precipitation patterns
• The vulnerability of the landless and the poor has increased.

How is climate change affecting India?

• One of the major areas that will be extremely vulnerable to climate change in the future is South Asia.
• India especially will be vulnerable to climate change due to its diverse terrain, rapid use of natural resources due to the current trend of precipitous urbanisation, industrialisation and economic growth.
• Currently, India, in its effort to protect its fast diminishing natural resources, is facing environmental and socio-economic challenges.
• Water and air quality are worsening each day due to environmental pollution.
• Those that are especially susceptible to climate change are the country’s coastal ecosystems, biodiversity and agricultural productivity.
• The natural disasters’ increasing frequency and intensity are causing negative effects to the already struggling Indian economy .
• The adverse effects of such disasters range from poverty, vulnerability to diseases, loss of income and livelihoods.
• According to the World Bank, an increase of 2°C in the world’s average temperature in the next few decades will only make India’s monsoon more unpredictable.
• The changing rain patterns in India are predicted to leave many areas flooded and others without water scarcity.
• More than 60% of India’s agriculture is dependent on rain and the majority of the population are dependent on the agriculture sector for survival. This makes India more vulnerable to climate change.
• It is estimated that by the 2050s, with a temperature increase of 2-2.5°C, water in the river basins of Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra will be reduced. This may threaten the food security of about 63 million people.
• The poverty reduction rate will also be slowed down due to the rise in the atmospheric temperature.
• Poor will be more vulnerable to climate change since many of them are dependent on the rain-dependent agriculture.
• An increase of 2°C by the 2040s is going to affect crop production and will reduce the crop output by 12%, requiring more imports to meet the domestic demands.
• Furthermore, the decreasing availability of food can give rise to considerable health issues especially among women and children.
• The melting glaciers and loss of snow can pose a risk to reliable water resources in India.
• Main rivers like Ganges, Indus, and Brahmaputra mostly depend on snow and glacial meltwater. This makes them vulnerable to global warming.
• Climate change can further increase the risk of flooding of low areas and threatens agriculture.
• Impact on Drainage System: With the Indo-Gangetic Plains as its “breadbasket,” India withdraws 34% of its available water each year. Himalayan glaciers are melting faster and faster as temperatures rise and seasonal variability increases. If the rate rises, glacial lakes will burst their natural boundaries, causing flooding in river valleys fed by these glaciers, followed by reduced flows, resulting in water scarcity.

Government measures’ limitations:

• From the recent cases of natural disasters like the Chennai Floods, 2015, 2016 drought, 2019 Kerala floods , etc., it is evident that there are no adequate arrangements made to mitigate them.
• For instance, in the case of Uttarakhand or the Chennai rains, the arrangements weren’t adequate to allow the flow of rainwater due to the illegal constructions.
• From the 2016 drought, there were increased deaths, most of them were economically poor and the underprivileged.
• The government failed to ensure long-term mitigation and the big corporate houses that contribute to large-scale pollution of air and water escape with a mere “corporate social liability” clauses. These are some of the major causes of the devastating impact of these natural disasters.
• India does not have stringent laws to ensure protection against climate change.
• The authorities will not be prosecuted for their negligence of duty and the cases that manage to reach the Supreme Court through the public interest litigation were only able to bring about small changes in averting the future crisis.
• Each year, India is facing the negative impact of climate change and the government is taking measures to address it. Yet the measures taken will not be enough to solve the issue due to poor implementation and lack of accountability.

What are the efforts taken at the international level to combat climate change?

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) founded the IPCC to provide for a mechanism to study the effects of global warming at a governmental level.
• IPCC is a UN body that assesses the science related to climate change.
• It provides the policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks while also providing adaptation and mitigation options.
• It complements UNFCCC and vice versa.

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):

• It came to force on 21 st March 1994.
• The 195 countries that have ratified it are called the Parties to the Convention.
• The UNFCC is a Rio Convention, one of the three adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. The others include the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification .
• The Joint Liaison Group was established to ensure cooperation among the three Conventions.
• Currently, it also consists of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands.
• The ultimate aim of the Convention is to stabilize the greenhouse gas concentration “at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.
• It also aims to achieve the said level within a specific period so that the ecosystem is allowed to adapt naturally to climate change while also ensuring food security and sustainable economic development.
• Following its establishment, the COP1 (first Conference of Parties) was held in Berlin, COP2 was held in Geneva and the COP3 was held in Kyoto to adopt the “Kyoto Protocol” that ensures the implementation of the UNFCCC’s objective.

Kyoto Protocol:

• Kyoto Protocols was adopted in Kyoto, Japan on 11 th December 1997 and came to force on 16 th February 2005
• Its signatories are committed towards the achievement of emission reduction targets.
• COP 7 held in Morocco in 2001 saw the adoption of the detailed rules for the implementation of the protocol. These are referred to as “Marrakesh Accords”.
• This protocol holds the developed countries are accountable for the current high levels of GHG emissions into the atmosphere due to their role in the industrial revolution.
• Kyoto Mechanism, also known as Flexible Mechanism, is defined under the Kyoto Protocol to lower the overall cost of achieving the emission targets. It includes Emission Trading, the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation.
• On December 2012, the Doha Amendment to the Kyoto Protocol was adopted. The changes made include:
• New commitments were made by Annex I Parties (developed nations and Economies in Transition) to be implemented between the period of 1 st January 2013 and 31 st December 2020.
• A revised list of GHG that is to be reported by the Parties during the second commitment period
• Amendments were made to update several articles of the Kyoto Protocol to be on par with the second commitment period.
• The Kyoto Protocol is a significant step towards the reduction of global emission regime that will allow the stabilisation of GHG emissions.

Paris Agreement:

• Signed in 2016, it is considered to be the world’s first comprehensive climate agreement.
• It aims to:
• Keep the global temperature well below 2°C above preindustrial times and endeavour to limit them even more to 1.5°C.
• Strengthen the nations’ ability to combat the adverse impacts of climate change.
• The Paris Accord calls for a reduction of the GHGs emitted due to human activities equal to that of the trees, soil and oceans so that they can be absorbed naturally.
• As per the Agreement, each country’s contribution towards cutting emission must be reviewed every 5 years.
• It also states that rich countries must help the poorer nations by providing them with “Climate finances” to make them shift towards renewable energy usage.
• The agreement is binding in some elements like reporting requirements. Other elements of the agreement are non-binding like the emission targets of the individual nations.
• The Paris Agreement necessitates all Parties to put forth their best efforts through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the future.
• This also includes the need for regular reporting emissions and implementation by the parties.
• India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) includes the reduction in the intensity of its GDP by 33 to 35% by 2030 from 2005 level. Additionally, it has pledged to increase the share of non-fossil fuel-based electricity by 40% by 2030. It has also agreed to enhance its forest cover, which will absorb 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO 2 by 2030.
• Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) is a mechanism developed by Parties of the UNFCCC.
• It creates financial value for the carbon stored in forests to offer incentives for the developing nations to reduce emissions from forested lands and invest in low-carbon paths.
• The developing nations will receive results-based payments for results-based actions.
• The REDD+ goes beyond simply deforestation and forest degradation by including the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks.
• It is estimated that the financial flows for the GHG emission reduction from REDD+ could reach up to $30 billion per year.
• This improved North-South flow of funds can ensure a significant reduction of carbon emissions and the promotion of inclusive development. It could also improve biodiversity conservation and secure vital ecosystem services.
• Forests are vital carbon sink and thus, it is vital to increase its resilience to climate change.

What are the measures taken by the Indian government to combat climate change?

• India is this fifth-largest emitter of GHG, accounting for approximately 5% of global emission.
• Emissions from India have increased by 65% during 1990-2005 and are estimated to increase by another 70% by 2020.
• As previously mentioned India is especially vulnerable to climate change because of the increased natural disasters, depleting natural resources and high dependence on agriculture and rain.
• Regardless of the resource limitations, India is taking numerous measures to adapt and mitigate climate change by increasing energy efficiency, promoting circular economic model , promoting the use of renewable energy
• India is among the few countries that have increased the Clean Energy Cess on coal.
• Clean Energy Fund worth approximately $3 billion is used to promote the use of clean technologies.
• The government is also increasing the investments for afforestation to increase the carbon sink.
• India has set a target of 33% of its geographical area under forest cover. According to the biennial State of India’s Forest Report 2019 (SoFR 2019), India’s total forest cover is 21.67% of the total geographical area of the country.
• India has allocated about $200 million for the National Adaptation Fund for Climate Change (NAFCC).
• It aims to support adaptation activities that can mitigate the adverse impact of climate change.
• The scheme’s activities are implemented in the project mode and the projects are related to adaptation in sectors like agriculture, animal husbandry, water, forestry, tourism, etc.
• Other initiatives include 100 smart cities , National Mission for Clean Ganga, National Air Quality Scheme, etc. Other major government measures are as follows:

National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)

• As a part of the NAPCC, the Indian government had launched 8 missions on focused areas. They are:
• National Solar Mission
• National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency
• National Mission on Sustainable Habitat
• National Water Mission
• National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem
• National Mission for a “Green India” Goals
• National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
• National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change

National Action Programme to Combat Desertification:

• India is one of the parties of UNCCD .
• The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change is the National Coordination Agency for the implementation of the UNCCD at the national level.
• India has framed the 20-year comprehensive National Action Programme (NAP) to address the problem of desertification within the nation. The objectives include:
• Drought management, preparedness, and mitigation
• Development based on a community approach
• Promote the improvement of local communities’ quality of life
• Promote awareness
• Promote suitable research and development initiatives and interventions.
• Promoting self-governance to empower local communities so that they can deal with issues pertaining to climate change.

India in the international forums on climate change:

• India is currently setting up voluntary targets in the international forums to commit itself to the mission to combat climate change. It is also playing a major role in climate change mitigation.
• India’s proactive role in mitigating climate change is due to the domestic compulsion of tackling issues like the need for poverty eradication, food and nutritional security , universalization of health and education , water security, sustainable energy, employment
• India is of the opinion that the developing countries’ need for inclusive growth, sustainable development , poverty eradication and universal access to energy must be made the fundamental differentiation between them and the developed nations. Currently, the Conventions recognise that the historical emissions of the developed nations as the basis for differentiation between the developed and developing nations.

What is stopping us from mitigating climate change?

The numerous decision-making barriers that currently exist are preventing the desired level of adaptation. The 5 th Assessment Report of the IPCC has comprehensively identified the economic barriers that are preventing government decision on adaption to climate change. They are:

• Transitional costs: These are broadly divided into information and adjustment costs. The former refers to the costs that occur while acquiring information and the latter are the costs for replacing the long-lived capital.
• Market failures and missing markets : These include externalities, information asymmetries, and moral hazards. These cases are especially seen when one economic unit harms another unit. It also occurs when there aren’t sufficient incentives for the change.
• Behaviour obstacles to adaption : Irrational decisions, social norms, and cultural factors also pose as obstacles to adaption decision making.
• Ethical and distributional issues : These issues connect to the differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Though sometimes a decision could ensure cost-effective and sustainable solutions, ethical constraints hinder these decisions.
• Coordination, government failures and politics : Though the governments must ensure the removal of the aforementioned barriers, they themselves face similar barriers like limited knowledge or resources. Also, coordination among various departments, though important, is highly difficult to obtain. Politics on whether or not climate change is real is also preventing the governments from undertaking adaption decision-making.
• Uncertainty is the largest barrier to adaptation as it expands to different dimensions like future developments of demographics, technologies and economics and the future of climate change.

Climate change is happening. This should be accepted and not politicised. International cooperation to address climate change is vital to mitigate the adverse impact. Additionally, mitigation must be complemented with climate change-related adaption since mitigation alone cannot address the adverse effects we are facing right now. An international level comprehensive plan of action is necessary for inclusive and sustainable growth of the global community.

Test yourself

Scientific consensus and public protests are doing little to motivate the governments’ policies towards climate change mitigation. Discuss. (250 Words)

• The seventeenth edition of the Climate Change Performance Index 2022 was published on 10 November 2021. India ranked 10th while Denmark is the highest performing country in the index. The top ten nations in the index are– Denmark (4th position), Sweden (5th position), Norway (6th position), United Kingdom (7th position), Morocco (8th position), Chile (9th position), and India (10th position).
• The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) is an annual report released by Germanwatch, Climate Action Network (CAN) and New Climate Institute since 2005.
• CCPI is an independent tool that monitors the climate protection performance of about 60 countries and the European Union. These countries collectively produce around 90% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
• It seeks to improve transparency in international climate politics and enables a comparison of climate protection initiatives and progress achieved by individual nations.
• The report studies countries in 4 categories having 14 indicators – Greenhouse gas emissions (40% of total score), Renewable energy (20%), Energy use (20%) and Climate policy (20%).
• 2022 was the fifth warmest year on record.   Earth’s average surface temperature in 2022 effectively tied with 2015 as the fifth warmest on record, according to an analysis by NASA.
• Arctic  sea ice reached its annual minimum extent in September  2022, shrinking to an area of 4.67 million square kilometers (1.80 million square miles).  This extends a long-term downward trend due to global warming.
• New research on Antarctica  doubles the previous estimates of loss from ice shelves.  The study, published in the journal Nature, found that ice shelves in Antarctica are losing ice at an alarming rate, with some losing up to 100 meters of ice per year.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report in March 2023 that warned that global warming is already having a significant impact on the planet.  The report found that climate change is causing more extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and wildfires. It also found that climate change is causing sea levels to rise, which is threatening coastal communities around the world.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an independent scientific analysis that tracks government climate action and measures it against the globally agreed aim of holding warming well below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.

It is produced by two research organisations, Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute.

In its most recent assessment, the CAT found that global emissions are on track to increase by 3.6% in 2022. This is far from the level of ambition needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The CAT also found that many countries are not on track to meet their Paris Agreement pledges.

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• Climate Change In India UPSC Notes

Climate Change In India [UPSC Notes GS III]

The effect of climate change has recently been seen in some cities of India like Delhi, Hyderabad, and especially Chennai where the city was facing a water crisis and was relying on alternative water sources such as distant, unreliable public water pumps, and costly private water tankers. Therefore, the topic is important in the UPSC mains exam.

This article will abrest you with evidence of rapid climate change in India, its potential effect on the country, and how to cope with the climate change effects.  IAS Exam aspirants can find more notes for UPSC Mains General Studies topics from the links given at the end of the article.

About Climate Change in India

• India has questioned the rush at the United Nations (UN) to declare climate change an international security issue, potentially giving the Security Council the right to take action on it, and pointed out the pitfalls in the approach.
• According to India, A “mere decision of the Council” to take over enforcement of climate change action would disrupt the Paris Agreement and multilateral efforts to find solutions.
• Climate change is a global threat to security in the 21st century. We must act now to limit future risks to the planet we share and the peace we seek.

For NCERT Notes on Climate Change , aspirants can visit the linked page.

Evidence For Rapid Climate Change In India

• Global Temperature Rise: The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.62 degrees Fahrenheit (0.9 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010.
• Warming Oceans: The oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters (about 2,300 feet) of ocean showing warming of more than 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1969.
• Shrinking Ice Sheets: The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass. Data from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment show Greenland lost an average of 286 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2016, while Antarctica lost about 127 billion tons of ice per year during the same time period. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade.
• Glacial Retreat: Glaciers are retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska, and Africa.
• Decreased Snow Cover: Satellite observations reveal that the amount of spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has decreased over the past five decades and that the snow is melting earlier.
• Sea Level Rise: Global sea level rose about 8 inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.
• Declining Arctic Sea Ice: Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has declined rapidly over the last several decades.
• Extreme Events: The number of record high-temperature events in the United States has been increasing, while the number of record low-temperature events has been decreasing, since 1950. The U.S. has also witnessed increasing numbers of intense rainfall events.
• Ocean Acidification: Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30 percent. This increase is the result of humans emitting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and hence more being absorbed into the oceans. The amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by the upper layer of the oceans is increasing by about 2 billion tons per year.

Climate Fragility Risks in India

“A New Climate for Peace: Taking Action on Climate and Fragility Risks” , an independent report commissioned by members of the G7 , identifies seven compound climate-fragility risks that pose serious threats to the stability of states and societies in the decades ahead:

• Local resource competition: As the pressure on natural resources increases, competition can lead to instability and even violent conflict in the absence of effective dispute resolution.
• Livelihood insecurity and migration: Climate changes will increase the human insecurity of people who depend on natural resources for their livelihoods, which could push them to migrate or turn to illegal sources of income.
• Extreme weather events and disasters: Extreme weather events and disasters will exacerbate fragility challenges and can increase people’s vulnerability and grievances, especially in conflict-affected situations.
• Volatile food prices and provision: Climate change is highly likely to disrupt food production in many regions, increasing prices and market volatility, and heightening the risk of protests, rioting, and civil conflict.
• Transboundary water management: Transboundary waters are frequently a source of tension; as demand grows and climate impacts affect availability and quality, competition over water use will likely increase the pressure on existing governance structures.
• Sea-level rise and coastal degradation: Rising sea levels will threaten the viability of low-lying areas even before they are submerged, leading to social disruption, displacement, and migration, while disagreements over maritime boundaries and ocean resources may increase.
• Unintended effects of climate policies: As climate adaptation and mitigation policies are more broadly implemented, the risks of unintended negative effects—particularly in fragile contexts—will also increase.

Policy Analysis: The Need for an Integrated Agenda

The best way to diminish the threat posed by these climate-fragility risks is to mitigate climate change. However, changes to the climate are already underway, so we must take steps to manage and minimize these risks today. To break down the sectoral barriers that hamper efforts to address climate-fragility risks, we need to address key policy and institutional gaps in three areas:

• Climate change adaptation: programs help countries anticipate the adverse effects of climate change and take action to prevent, minimize, and respond to their potential impacts.
• Development and humanitarian aid programs help states and populations build their economic, governance, and social capacities and improve their resilience to shocks.
• Peace-building and conflict prevention programs address the causes and effects of fragility and conflict by reducing tensions and creating an environment for sustainable peace.

Why is climate change relevant to India?

India is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change. It has one of the highest densities of economic activity in the world, and very large numbers of poor people who rely on the natural resource base for their livelihoods, with a high dependence on rainfall. By 2020, pressure on India’s water, air, soil, and forests is expected to become the highest in the world.

One of the most significant ways that climate change will impact the lives of people in India will be through its water resources. While water sustains life, it all too often wreaks havoc through devastating floods and droughts . A changing climate will only aggravate these shocks.

Potential Effects of climate change in India

• Extreme Heat : India is already experiencing a warming climate. Unusual and unprecedented spells of hot weather are expected to occur far more frequently and cover much larger areas. Under 4°C warming, the west coast and southern India are projected to shift to new, high-temperature climatic regimes with significant impacts on agriculture.
• Changing Rainfall Patterns : A decline in monsoon rainfall since the 1950s has already been observed. A 2°C rise in the world’s average temperatures will make India’s summer monsoon highly unpredictable. At 4°C warming, an extremely wet monsoon that currently has a chance of occurring only once in 100 years is projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the century. Dry years are expected to be drier and wet years wetter.
• Droughts : Evidence indicates that parts of South Asia have become drier since the 1970s with an increase in the number of droughts. Droughts have major consequences. In 1987 and 2002-2003, droughts affected more than half of India’s crop area and led to a huge fall in crop production. Droughts are expected to be more frequent in some areas, especially in north-western India, Jharkhand, Orissa, and Chhattisgarh. Crop yields are expected to fall significantly because of extreme heat by the 2040s.
• Groundwater: Even without climate change, 15% of India’s groundwater resources are overexploited. Falling water tables can be expected to reduce further on account of increasing demand for water from a growing population, more affluent lifestyles, as well as from the services sector and industry.
• Glacier Melt : Most Himalayan glaciers have been retreating over the past century. At 2.5°C warming, melting glaciers and the loss of snow cover over the Himalayas are expected to threaten the stability and reliability of northern India’s primarily glacier-fed rivers. Alterations in the flows of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra rivers could significantly impact irrigation, affecting the amount of food that can be produced in their basins as well as the livelihoods of millions of people
• Sea level rise: With India close to the equator, the sub-continent would see much higher rises in sea levels than higher latitudes. Sea-level rise and storm surges would lead to saltwater intrusion in the coastal areas, impacting agriculture, degrading groundwater quality, contaminating drinking water, and possibly causing a rise in diarrhoea cases and cholera outbreaks, as the cholera bacterium survives longer in saline water. Kolkata and Mumbai, both densely populated cities, are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise, tropical cyclones , and riverine flooding.
• Apart from this food and energy security are also major concerns. Water scarcity, health hazards among the masses, and migration and political conflicts are expected to grow.

India’s response to Climate Change

• National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) : outlines existing and future policies and programs addressing climate mitigation and adaptation. The Action Plan identifies eight core “national missions” running through to 2017: Solar Energy; Enhanced Energy Efficiency; Sustainable Habitat; Water; Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem; Green India; Sustainable Agriculture; and Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change. Most of these missions have strong adaptation imperatives.
• National Clean Energy Fund: The Government of India created the National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF) in 2010 for financing and promoting clean energy initiatives and funding research in the area of clean energy in the country. The corpus of the fund is built by levying a cess of INR 50 (subsequently increased to INR 100 in 2014) per tonne of coal produced domestically or imported.
• Paris Agreement: Under the Paris Agreement, India has made three commitments. India’s greenhouse gas emission intensity of its GDP will be reduced by 33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030. Alongside, 40% of India’s power capacity would be based on non-fossil fuel sources. At the same time, India will create an additional ‘carbon sink’ of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of Co2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.
• International Solar Alliance: ISA was launched at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris on 30 November 2015 by India and France, in the presence of Mr. Ban Ki Moon, former Secretary-General of the United Nations.
• Bharat Stage (BS) Emission Norms: Emissions from vehicles are one of the top contributors to air pollution, which led the government at the time to introduce the BS 2000 (Bharat Stage 1) vehicle emission norms from April 2000, followed by BS-II in 2005. BS-III was implemented nationwide in 2010. However, in 2016, the government decided to meet the global best practices and leapfrog to BS-VI norms by skipping BS V altogether.

All these efforts need to be implemented well to mitigate the effects of climate change.

How can India cope with climate change effects?

An ‘adaptation’ approach is the way to go. For this, a big push must be given to the interlinking of rivers and the use of GM crops . Climate action has globally been ‘mitigation-centric’ — most of the programs (such as a push for renewable energy and electric vehicles) are aimed at slowing down future global warming. ‘Mitigation’ is more important to developed countries, but for countries like India, the focus should be on ‘adaptation’, or measures are taken to cope with the inevitable effects of climate change that has already happened, such as nasty storms, floods, and droughts.

‘Adaptation’ is like protecting yourself against a punch that will land. India has also been mitigation-centric; it is time to bring focus on ‘adaptation’. And for adaptation, the time has come for two major steps.

• The first is to give a big push to a 150-year-old idea — inter-linking of rivers (ILRs). With floods and droughts likely to occur in different parts of the countries, possibly alongside each other, there is no option but to make ILR happen, and fast. Here are two components of it: the Himalayan and the Peninsular, with 14 and 16 links respectively. The idea is to build a dam on one river so that the water level rises at the head of the canal, allowing water to flow by gravity to the next river. India today has 5,100 large dams, which have walls at least 15 meters tall; ILR will require 3,000 more. The project will also involve building 15,000 km of new canals. If brought to fruition, ILR will bring 35 million hectares — over twice the size of Andhra Pradesh — of additional land into cultivation, and 34,000 MW more of hydroelectricity.
• The other adaptive measure is genetically modified crops. GM technology is a major component of ‘climate-smart agriculture’. We would need drought-resistant crops, and crops that produce more on the same patch of land so that climate-impairing ‘land use’ is minimized. India has been saying ‘no’ to GM technology. However, GM technology has been in use globally for over two decades and millions of people have been eating GM foods for years.

World Bank on Climate Change

Climate change could push more than 100 million people into extreme poverty by 2030 by disrupting agriculture and fueling the spread of malaria and other diseases, the World Bank said in a report.

These UPSC Notes on climate change in India are aligned with the UPSC Syllabus and aspirants should prepare this topic for General Studies Paper III.

Climate Change in India [UPSC Notes GS-III]:- Download PDF Here

Aspirants of the UPSC exam are advised to check other relevant topics for the Essay and GS III paper.

Aspirants can check the  UPSC Notes  page for free GS1, GS2, and GS 3 notes.

For more UPSC related preparation materials and articles, visit the links given in the table below:

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COP26: UN Climate Change Conference 2021

Last updated on September 13, 2023 by ClearIAS Team

The United Kingdom hosted the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow on 31 October – 12 November 2021.

The Conference of Parties (COP) is a well-known annual event that sees nations come together to discuss measures to reduce anthropomorphic global warming and steps to tackle Climate Change.

Table of Contents

About COP26:

The COP26 summit brought parties together to accelerate action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

According to the  UNFCCC , COP26 will work towards four goals:

1. Net-Zero by 2050:

• To secure  Global Net-Zero by Mid-Century and  keep 1.5 degrees within reach.
• Countries are being asked to come forward with ambitious 2030 emissions reductions targets that include reaching net-zero by the middle of the century.
• Accelerate the phase-out of coal
• Curtail deforestation
• Speed up the switch to electric vehicles
• Encourage investment in renewable sources of energy.

2. Adapt to Protect Communities and Natural Habitats:

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• Countries will work together to ‘ protect and restore ecosystems and build defences , warning systems, and resilient infrastructure and agriculture to avoid loss of homes, livelihoods and even lives .’

3. Mobilise Finance:

• Developed countries must make good on their promise to mobilize at least USD100bn in climate finance per year.
• International financial institutions must play their part and we need to work towards unleashing the trillions in private and public sector finance required to secure global net zero.

4. Work Together to Deliver:

• Another important task at the COP26 is to  ‘finalize the Paris Rulebook’.
• Leaders will work together to frame a list of detailed rules that will help fulfil the Paris agreement.

The outcome of the COP26- the Glasgow Climate Pact gives new building blocks to advance implementation of the Paris Agreement through actions that can get the world on a more sustainable, low-carbon pathway forward.

The Glasgow climate pact:

The following were agreed upon in the Glasgow Climate Pact by the nations of the world:

Recognizing the emergency

Countries reaffirmed the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C.

Accelerating action

Countries stressed the urgency of action when carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced by 45 percent to reach net-zero around mid-century. But with present climate plans and the Nationally determined Contributions are falling far short. Hence the Glasgow Climate Pact calls on all countries to present stronger national action plans next year, instead of in 2025, which was the original timeline.

Moving away from fossil fuels

The countries agreed to a provision calling for a phase-down of coal power and a phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies – two key issues that had never been explicitly mentioned in decisions of UN climate talks before.

Delivering on climate finance

Developed countries came to Glasgow falling short on their promise to deliver US$100 billion a year for developing countries and expressed confidence that the target would be met in 2023.

Stepping up support for adaptation

The Glasgow Pact calls for a doubling of finance to support developing countries in adapting to the impacts of climate change and building resilience.

Completing the Paris rulebook

Countries reached an agreement on the remaining issues of the so-called Paris rulebook, the operational details for the practical implementation of the Paris Agreement.

Focusing on loss & damage

Acknowledging that climate change is having increasing impacts on people especially in the developing world, countries agreed to strengthen a network— known as the Santiago Network, that provides vulnerable countries with technical assistance, knowledge, and resources to address climate risks.

They also launched a new “Glasgow dialogue” to discuss arrangements for the funding of activities to avert, minimize and address loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change.

New announcements at COP26:

There were many other significant deals and announcements which can have major positive impacts if they are implemented. These include:

Forests: 137 countries took a landmark step forward by committing to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030. The pledge is backed by $12bn in public and $7.2bn in private funding.

Methane: 103 countries, including 15 major emitters, signed up to the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to limit methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030, compared to 2020 levels. Methane , one of the most potent greenhouse gases, is responsible for a third of current warming from human activities.

Cars: Over 30 countries, six major vehicle manufacturers, and other actors, like cities, set out their determination for all new car and van sales to be zero-emission vehicles by 2040 globally and 2035 in leading markets, accelerating the decarbonization of road transport, which currently accounts for about 10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Coal: Leaders from South Africa, the United Kingdom, the United States, France, Germany, and the European Union announced a ground-breaking partnership to support South Africa – the world’s most carbon-intensive electricity producer— with $8.5 billion over the next 3-5 years to make a just transition away from coal, to a low-carbon economy.

Private Finance: Private financial institutions and central banks announced moves to realign trillions of dollars towards achieving global net-zero emissions. Among them is the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, with over 450 firms across 45 countries that control $130 trillion in assets, requiring its member to set robust, science-based near-term targets.

Key terms to know from COP26:

What is net-zero.

• Net-zero emissions pertain to achieving an overall balance between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced, and GHG emissions removed from the atmosphere.
• A country can be said to be net-zero when it produces no emissions, either because it has actually phased out all emissions or because it is removing enough from the atmosphere to offset the emissions it releases.
• The latter can be achieved by restoring or increasing forest cover or through technologies such as  carbon capture .

What is carbon neutrality?

• Carbon neutrality is a state of net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions . It is achieved when anthropogenic CO2 emissions are balanced globally by anthropogenic CO2 removals over a specified period.
• There are several actions that an emitter can take to achieve this balance, such as reducing energy consumption and emissions-producing activities, improving energy efficiency processes, and consumption of renewable sources of energy.
• A nation or an organization can also achieve carbon neutrality through carbon offsetting , a process of compensating for CO2 emissions it generates by participating in, or funding efforts to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
• Offsetting usually involves paying another party, somewhere else, to save emissions equivalent to those produced by the emitter.

What is the carbon footprint?

• A carbon footprint measures the amount of CO2 equivalent a country, an industry, an individual, or a product emits or is responsible for.
• The footprint is calculated in both direct emissions (from the burning of fossil fuels, heating, and transportation), and indirect emissions during the whole lifecycle of products.
• It also includes emissions of other greenhouse gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide, or chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
• It is expressed as a measure of weight, as in tons of CO2 or CO2 equivalent per year.

What are carbon credits?

• Carbon credits are a system of purchasing and trading carbon emissions to mitigate the growth in concentrations of global atmospheric CO2 levels.
• The term carbon credit usually refers to a tradable certificate or permit that shows a company, industry, or country, has paid to remove a certain amount of CO2 from the atmosphere.
• This certificate gives them the right to emit 1 tonne of CO2 or the equivalent of different greenhouse gas. It is used by individuals or businesses to reduce their carbon footprint through investing in an activity that reduced, removed, or sequestered greenhouse gases at another site.
• The trading of carbon credits has turned them into a type of climate currency, subject to supply and demand, just like fiat currencies.

India at COP26:

India is the 3 rd largest emitter in terms of net emissions whereas it has the lowest per capita emission among the major economies of the world (17% of the world population emitting just 5% of total).

India has announced its net-zero targets in COP26 s accordance with the Paris Agreement of 2015.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries were bound to submit carbon-cutting plans and updates by the end of 2020.

India’s 5-point pledge or Panchamrit :

• Net-zero by 2070
• To increase its non-fossil fuel energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030.
• Increase the share of renewables in the energy mix to 50% by 2030.
• Reduce the emissions intensity of its economy by 45%.
• Reduce emissions by 1 billion tonnes of CO2.

India also supported the Africa Group’s demand for $1 trillion in climate action that the developed countries should make available for climate action in developing nations.

India’s efforts at present:

• India’s renewable energy capacity is 4th in the world as of now and growing at a rapid rate.
• India has seen an increase of about 25% in renewable energy capacity in the last four years.
• Indian railways , one of the largest emitters has promised to reach net-zero by 2030 – this alone will reduce 60 million tonnes of emissions.
• India has launched international institutions for climate action such as the International Solar Alliance (ISA), Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI),
• India along with the UK and Australia will launch the Infrastructure for Resilient Island States (IRIS) for the island nations and developing countries.
• India will also be part of the launch of the Green Grids Initiative .

UPSC CSE Mains Questions about COP26

Question) Describe the major outcomes of the 26 th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). What are the commitments made by India at this conference? (Answer in 250 words) – UPSC CSE Mains 2021 General Studies Paper 3

Question) Explain the purpose of the Green Grid Initiative launched at the World Leaders Summit of the COP26 UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in November 2021. When was this idea first floated in the International Solar Alliance (ISA)? (Answer in 150 words) – UPSC CSE Mains 2021 General Studies Paper 3

Related posts

• CCUS: Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage Policy
• Decarbonising Transport Sector
• Decarbonizing Iron and Steel Sector

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