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Rapidly Assessing the Impact of Hurricane Matthew in Haiti

Streets in Haiti after Hurricane Matthew. Photo: MINUSTAH

The Haitian population is one of the most exposed in the world to natural disasters, including hurricanes, floods, and earthquakes. The number of disasters per kilometer tops the average for other Caribbean countries. The Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index ranked Haiti third in the world in 1995–2014 for impacts from climatic events, and the country is among the ten zones in the world considered most vulnerable to climate change. In 2008, tropical storms and hurricanes caused losses estimated at 15 percent of GDP. The earthquake on January 12, 2010, killed 220,000 people, displaced 1.5 million people, and destroyed the equivalent of 120 percent of GDP. These disasters tend to disproportionately affect the poorest and most marginal populations, those settling in the flood zones and coastal areas particularly affected by tropical storms. Almost 50 percent of damage and losses to the productive sectors have been concentrated in the agricultural sector. Based on available historic data, weather-related disasters are estimated to have caused damage and losses in Haiti amounting to about two percent of GDP on average per year from 1975 to 2012.

Hurricane Matthew struck Haiti on October 4, 2016, as a Category 4 hurricane. The combined effects of wind, coastal flooding and rain caused heavy flooding, landslides, and the destruction of a great deal of infrastructure, agricultural crops and natural ecosystems. In all, 546 people were killed, more than 175,500 people sought refuge in shelters, and about 1.4 million people required immediate humanitarian assistance. An assessment of the damage and losses had to be carried out very quickly to unlock financial resources from the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund to provide the assistance needed by those affected by the disaster.

The WBG, in partnership with the Inter-American Development Bank, closely supported the client through data gathering from field visits, phone surveys, and satellites and drones, as well as simulations through modelling. A full report assessing the damage and losses was delivered less than two weeks after the request, a task that usually takes at least three months. This rapid assessment covered all affected sectors and was the first multi-sectoral evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of the hurricane as well as of its macroeconomic effects and impacts on individual and household income.

Matthew was a Category 4 hurricane, an event predicted to occur only once every 56 years. It inflicted damage and losses in Haiti estimated at the equivalent of 22 percent of GDP. Specific impacts of the hurricane included the following:

• The disaster affected over 2 million people, about 20 percent of Haiti’s population, primarily in the poorest regions of the county.
• The hurricane resulted in flooding, landslides, and extensive destruction of infrastructure and livelihoods.
• The agriculture and housing/urban sectors were the hardest hit, with up to 90 percent of crops and livestock lost in some areas.
• Thousands of structures were damaged, and key roads and bridges were washed away.
• It’s estimated that over 450,000 children were out of school.
• The vaccine cold chain was destroyed.
• A sharp increase in suspected cholera cases was recorded in affected departments.

Assessing in record time the damage and losses, as well as identifying the most affected sectors and the potential human costs, led to rapid reallocation of about US$50 million from the Bank’s ongoing portfolio. The enabled responses included:

• Rehabilitation of roads and bridges, including the major bridge to the country’s south.
• Schools were repaired and refurnished, semi-permanent school shelters built, school children fed, and water treatment kits and school kits provided.
• Rapid response to cholera was strengthened.
• Emergency sanitation and chlorination water systems were implemented.
• Irrigations systems were rehabilitated, inputs for the next agricultural season were provided and seeds given to 2,500 farmers.
• Some entrepreneurs received cash transfers to cover damages and losses in the coffee, cocoa, and honey value chains.
• Portable solar lamps and solar household systems were made available, some distribution grids were rehabilitated, hurricane preparedness was strengthened and energy infrastructure vulnerability was reduced.

These rapid interventions not only helped to minimize losses in the winter harvest and prevent widespread famine, they also helped contain the cholera outbreak and limit migration and violence.

Bank Group Contribution

The World Bank, through the International Development Association (IDA), reallocated US$50 million from ongoing projects to the affected sectors. In addition, US$100 million under the IDA Crisis Response Window were mobilized for four additional financings to relaunch heavily damaged agriculture, restore connectivity through transport infrastructure and provide a robust cholera response.

Bank support focused on sectors with limited technical capacity, and particularly those sectors with counterparts in the government. The support promoted local ownership of the assessment by each of the line ministries while ensuring implementation of a standardized methodology. The rapid assessment benefited from joint support from the Inter-American Development Bank teams, FAO, UNICEF, and UNEP. In addition, the IMF mobilized US$ 41 million under their Rapid Credit Facility to help with urgent balance of payments needs in the aftermath of Matthew.

Beneficiaries

The rapid assessment allowed the identification of populations in need of urgent assistance, including over 30,000 children in affected schools. The assessment also provided information for effective targeting of rehabilitation efforts: about 45 school roofs and school grounds were rehabilitated, 60 semi-permanent shelters were built, and 4,000 pieces of school furniture (benches, desks, blackboards, etc.) were distributed, enabling schools to reopen and to increase their capacity in the short and medium term. In addition, 16,000 student kits (bag, books, notebooks, pens), 900 teacher kits (including dictionaries, compasses, rulers, maps), and 151 school kits (including blackboards and chalk) were distributed. Further efforts included providing 22,000 students in 90 schools in affected regions (Grand’Anse, Sud, and Nippes) with a daily snack and hot meal, as well as water-treatment and sanitation kits, soap, de-worming medication, vitamin A and cholera-prevention hygiene training. 

Subsequent interventions targeted 1.5 million beneficiaries in areas with limited health service delivery infrastructure. Isolated populations in the southern peninsula benefited from the provision of health services through mobile clinics, and in Nippes, Grande-Anse and Sud,

300,000 children benefited from the restoration of basic infrastructure for immunization and vaccine cold chains.

Cash transfers and in-kind support will also be provided to 325 micro, small and medium-sized entrepreneurs. The cash transfers and in-kind support will help the beneficiaries recover from losses and continue productive activities in their respective value chain, i.e., coffee (Grand'Anse and Southeast); vetiver (South); and honey (Nippes).

Moving Forward

This rapid damage and losses assessment fed into the more thorough Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) undertaken under the leadership of the Haitian Ministry of Planning, with support from the World Bank Group, the European Union, the Inter-American Development Bank, UNDP and various UN agencies. The PDNA was finalized in early January 2017 and launched by the President of the Republic in early February 2017. More importantly, this rapid assessment was instrumental in drawing up the needed framework and quickly moving from emergency response to recovery. Finally, this rapid assessment served as an important input to the preparation of the Bank’s first financing to reach the Board post–Hurricane Matthew. An International Development Agency education grant of US$ 30 million to maintain access to quality education in the areas most affected by Hurricane Matthew, delivered to the Board approximately five weeks after the disaster, was approved in November 2016.

• Download the compiled data
• Blog: The farmers, engineers, and health workers helping rebuild Haiti after Matthew
• Blog: 100 Days After Matthew, Seven Years After the ‘Quake’: Is Haiti More Resilient?
• A short video of before and after the hurricane

Five Years Later, Five Lessons Learned from Matthew

It’s a rare storm that now stands out more for its similarities to, rather than its differences from, others in its era.

Five years ago today, Hurricane Matthew brushed the North Carolina coastline but still caused incredible inland impacts. It wasn’t our first modern hurricane to produce significant freshwater flooding — Floyd in 1999 held that distinction — but it also isn’t the latest, with Florence in 2018 inundating many of the same areas affected by its predecessors.

As has become clear over the past five years, if Floyd was our nightmare, then Matthew was the wake-up call, reinforcing the drenching danger posed by tropical systems far from the coastline.

With the benefit of hindsight, and through the voices of those who experienced Matthew and its impacts first-hand, here are five lessons learned from and since that storm.

Skip Ahead: Forecast Messaging | Inland Flooding | Infrastructure | Agriculture | Future Planning

Track and intensity don’t tell the full story.

On its way to North Carolina, Matthew sent forecasters for a loop — and it nearly went for one itself.

After crossing the Bahamas at Category-4 strength, some model forecasts showed Matthew grinding up the Southeast coastline before looping out to sea and eventually doubling back toward the same areas, effectively boxed in by high pressure developing to the north.

While it avoided such an unusual track, its actual track and evolution didn’t make things any easier for National Weather Service offices in the path of the storm.

Despite weakening to a Category-1 and being projected to remain mostly off the North Carolina coast, Matthew still carried the threat of significant impacts far away from its center.

“Matthew was a great example of why we have to constantly reiterate in our messaging to not focus on the skinny black line on the forecast map and understand that the forecast cone is not an impact cone,” said Steve Pfaff , the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Wilmington.

Indeed, while Matthew’s eroding eye never made landfall in North Carolina, a foot of rain fell up to 100 miles inland in areas that may have assumed themselves safe from the worst of the storm.

Predicting exactly where the heaviest rain — and the worst flooding — would occur also created a forecasting and communications challenge.

“I remember that while excessive amounts were expected, the distribution of the axis of heaviest rainfall was still in question since it would not take much of a shift in the storm’s track to make huge differences in where the rain fell,” said Pfaff. “Subsequently, that would have an impact on which river basins would be hardest hit with the subsequent flooding.”

The nuances of which regions could have seen such extreme totals can be difficult to display, especially when users are accustomed to seeing only one forecast amount for their location.

“We convey that uncertainty in our briefings to emergency management and the media, but getting the message about the uncertainty to the public is a challenge, especially when deterministic information is readily available on our websites and in some of our products,” said Rick Neuherz , the Service Hydrologist at NWS Wilmington.

Even after the rain had ended, the meteorological threat posed by Matthew wasn’t over. A period of strong winds on the back edge of the storm knocked down trees and power lines in the rain-weakened ground, leading to more hazards.

“Anyone who was tracking the radar could have easily assumed that the wind threat would be diminishing as the precipitation exited,” said Pfaff. “We had to issue several messages to advise that the situation was not improving, and in fact winds were going to be worse at the end of the event.”

With impacts far from the center of the storm and hours after it had stopped pouring on eastern North Carolina, Matthew demonstrated a difficult lesson in communicating potential hurricane havoc.

Inland and urban flooding demands more attention.

On September 29, 2016, a long-lived thunderstorm dropped up to 10.5 inches of rain over Cumberland County , surging the Cape Fear River and its branches. Excess water breached the river banks and control structures like the Rhodes Pond Dam, then cascaded into downtown Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, and surrounding communities.

At that time, Matthew had just reached hurricane strength over the Caribbean, more than 1,500 miles to our south.

Nine days later, when the storm made its rendezvous with North Carolina, the additional 14 inches of rainfall it brought to the Fayetteville area sent the Cape Fear rising once again.

The September 29 thunderstorm had set a new record high crest of 31.20 feet on the Little River at Manchester , breaking a long-standing high water mark from 1945. On October 10, the floods from Matthew quickly eclipsed that peak, hitting 32.19 feet.

At least 17 dam failures were noted in North Carolina after Matthew, according to the News & Observer , and 13 of those were in the Cape Fear basin, urged along by that antecedent rainfall a week before the hurricane hit.

For the National Weather Service in Raleigh, which covers some of the hardest-hit locations along the Cape Fear and Neuse rivers, the inland and urban flooding impacts in places like Fayetteville weren’t necessarily a surprise, but they were unexpected for some people in the affected areas.

“The perception was that it was always going to be a southeastern North Carolina event,” said Jonathan Blaes , the Meteorologist-in-Charge at NWS Raleigh. “A lot of things pointed to this being a rainfall problem, but it’s not going to be cataclysmic. Fayetteville had a lot of rain before; hopefully, they’re going to dodge it this time.”

They didn’t, of course, and one reason for that was a shift in the forecasts ahead of the storm. A service assessment conducted by NWS noted that while official forecasts were generally accurate, “the forecast issued 48 hours prior to the storm’s closest approach to both South and North Carolina… indicated that the storm would move eastward and away from the coast.”

“That’s a big deal,” said Blaes. “The rainfall forecast that the public and the River Forecast Center uses is based on the official National Hurricane Center track forecast, so that meant it was shifted 120 miles to the south.”

When those rainfall bullseyes eventually repositioned as the forecast was adjusted, they targeted not the coastal counties but those farther inland. That potential for impacts away from the coast, especially amid an uncertain forecast, was one of the main lessons learned from Matthew.

“There were no flooding fatalities in a county in North Carolina that touches saltwater,” said Blaes. “The news and the public focuses so much on the dunes and the surf zone, but in this case, so much of the damage and death happened inland.”

Of the 29 deaths attributed to the storm in North Carolina , 24 were due to drowning. In that regard, Matthew helped shift the focus for the National Weather Service in terms of hurricane impacts.

That started at the local office level. The damage in Cumberland County led NWS Raleigh to increase their involvement in areas like that during later storms.

“Matthew was one of the steps in realizing things we needed to do in a service aspect,” said Barrett Smith , the Senior Service Hydrologist at NWS Raleigh. “In Florence, we were sending people to places like Fayetteville to help.”

That increased coordination — with local municipalities, NC Emergency Management, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and others — has helped the National Weather Service and its partners better understand and respond to flooding threats, such as the dam failures during Matthew.

“Relationships with the National Weather Service helped people understand the risk, such as Wilmington and Morehead City using wording like ‘potential for the worst flooding since Hurricane Floyd in 1999’,” said Diana Thomas , a Meteorologist and Planner with NC Emergency Management.

“Groups huddled to discuss hot spot locations that would experience flooding, areas that may require evacuation, and pre-positioning resources in anticipation of major impacts that would affect life and property. These activities were improved in future storms including Hurricane Florence.”

At a larger scale, the National Hurricane Center has changed how it messages hurricane impacts on its website . 

“It used to focus mostly on the wind field and the track. Now on those web pages, rainfall is promoted more,” said Blaes.

In addition, the National Weather Service’s hydrology component has taken a step forward with the launch of the National Water Model , which can predict streamflow levels and velocities using high-resolution forecasts. 

While inland flooding may never get the attention that it deserves, the improved forecasts and coordination should increase awareness for the next storm, and that’s thanks to the lessons learned from Matthew.

Our infrastructure was due for an upgrade.

Some of the most unbelievable scenes during Matthew — and later, in Florence — were stretches of major highways and interstates completely under water, effectively turned into new river branches by the overwhelming flood waters.

The North Carolina Department of Transportation (DOT) manages roadways across the state, and the sheer scale of Matthew’s impacts presented a major response and recovery challenge.

First, there were the local roads that became impassable due to the flooding.

“That single storm had the most pipe washouts of any that DOT has dealt with,” said Stephen Morgan , the State Hydraulics Engineer.

In total, 728 drainage pipes were washed out during Matthew and more than 2,100 roads required repairs, per a USGS report about the storm. And that was only the start of the infrastructure impacts.

Rising flood waters in Fayetteville and Lumberton eventually reached the travel lanes of Interstate 95, closing a 60-mile stretch of the road for the weekend after Matthew, with some sections shut down for as many as 10 days.

That made a hypothetical successor to Floyd a reality for DOT, and much sooner than anyone may have expected given the statistical rarity cited for a storm like that.

“It’s one thing to talk about a 50-year, a 100-year, or a 500-year event, but when I-95 is closed for a week, it puts you in a different frame of mind,” said Morgan. “You’re telling people moving from north to south or south to north to avoid North Carolina or find a different way around.”

Flooding on the interstate in Lumberton was only one sign of a much larger problem in that area. Morgan said Interstate 95 effectively acts as a levee for the city, so as water spilled over the highway and through a railway underpass, it created the worst flood to that point in Lumberton’s history.

“There’s a transect of how our roadway system can move people and goods and services, but it also has some responsibility with protecting the public,” Morgan added. “The same thing happened with Floyd. A lot of places flooded that hadn’t flooded before, especially in vulnerable and less-affluent communities.”

Even as the water was subsiding and pipes were being replaced, DOT was already at work planning for the next storm, whether on the ground, in the office, or even in the cloud, technologically speaking.

Those organizational improvements started with better tracking DOT’s assets — a necessity, given the number that were damaged and needed to be replaced.

“The way we report, collect, and share that information has changed tremendously after Matthew,” said Andy Jordan , the State Hydraulics Operations Engineer. “The number of eyes on our current inventory has improved since Matthew. We know what we have on the ground, and we know what we have in our yards.”

Their move from spreadsheets into platform-based collaborative software now allows for simultaneous editing by multiple users and more easily sharing information and recommendations within divisions and with executive leadership.

Matt Lauffer , the State Hydraulics Design Engineer, said Hurricane Matthew also precipitated the development of new partnerships and tools for tracking flood-prone areas.

“We needed to be in the joint operations center with emergency management, so we went there during Florence and started the development of FIMAN-T,” said Lauffer, referencing a version of the Flood Inundation Mapping and Alert Network tool designed for transportation. It’s shown below visualizing the extent of flooding in Kinston from Hurricane Florence.

That collaboration has also included the development of three river basin studies of the Lumber, Neuse, and Tar rivers, with each outlining recommended mitigation strategies for the most flood-prone areas.

A separate partnership with the NC Department of Environmental Quality (NC DEQ) and the National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) has produced a tool called DamWatch to help monitor potential dam failures like the ones seen after Matthew.

For areas such as Lumberton that were inundated in that event, changes are coming to reduce the likelihood of significant roadway closures during future storms.

“When those designs are completed and constructed by 2026, we will have raised I-95 high enough to maintain its mobility and connectivity during a storm like Florence,” said Lauffer.

Those advancements and modernizations to keep people and goods moving around the state might not have been possible — or necessary — if not for a storm like Matthew.

Flooding on farms can turn feasts to famines.

The agriculture industry in North Carolina has a can’t-live-with-them, can’t-live-without-them relationship with hurricanes.

In some areas, rainfall from tropical systems makes up nearly a fifth of the average warm-season precipitation — a figure that has almost certainly increased in the past decade thanks to storms like Matthew.

Years without that moisture can plunge into droughts, and farms tend to bear the brunt of that damage. During our 2007 drought that saw only one minor tropical storm in Gabrielle , the ag industry in North Carolina suffered losses of more than half a billion dollars.

But when a season’s worth of rain falls in less than a week, as in Matthew and Florence, farmers face a different set of challenges that can yield the same result: a loss of their livelihoods.

Matthew’s timing in early October effectively wiped out a summer’s worth of productivity for many crops in eastern North Carolina.

“The biggest impact that I can remember is the loss of whatever crops were in the field,” said Dalton Dockery , the Columbus County Extension Director for NC Cooperative Extension. “We still had crops like sweet potatoes, soybeans, cotton in the ground, and had just begun harvesting peanuts.”

Crop production data from the US Department of Agriculture shows the sort of hit that North Carolina farmers took that year. Compared to the drought-free 2014 growing season, the tobacco harvest was down by 27% in 2016 and the cotton harvest was 64% lower than two years prior.

In total, crop and livestock losses in the state due to Matthew were estimated at $400 million . That included 1.8 million chickens killed by the flooding.

Richard Goforth , a Specialized Area Poultry Agent with NC Cooperative Extension, was on the ground at poultry farms in Matthew’s wake to help with composting the mortalities. He said the lay of the land limited the steps farmers could take to protect their flocks.

“Down east, it’s so flat and low and level that we’re talking a foot to 18 inches of water is all it took to get inundated, and the birds are right on the ground level in the shavings on the floor,” Goforth noted.

After what had already been a wet summer in eastern North Carolina thanks to rain from tropical storms Hermine and Julia , soils were saturated and the additional water from Matthew had few places to go but piling up in the fields, poultry houses, and barns.

In advance of the storm, some poultry producers moved birds to houses or farms less likely to flood, while Dockery said other farmers prepared by doing “things like making sure ditches were clean, consulting with NRCS Soil & Water about what they could do in terms of addressing any drainage problems they may have.”

Those were lessons learned from Floyd, which was a billion-dollar disaster for North Carolina agriculture . However, Dockery notes that truly mitigating for storms of that magnitude is difficult.

“It’s basically the same land that is being planted on a rotational basis and there is no way to reshape all of that land for better drainage, or it would be extremely expensive to do,” he said.

“Even if they could, with that much water, I’m not sure that the results would have been any different.”

One way that Matthew was different than Floyd was in the spillover from wastewater lagoons — or the relative lack thereof. The Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado notes that 50 lagoons flooded and six were breached after Floyd, sending a surge of sludge into nearby waterways and, eventually, into the ocean.

During Matthew, flooding was limited to six lagoons and two breaches, both on a hog farm in Greene County, according to NC DEQ . Much of that reduction was thanks to measures taken since Floyd, including buyouts of 42 farms and the decommissioning of 103 lagoons located in floodplains, supported by the state’s Clean Water Management Trust Fund.

Following Florence, Goforth said cost-share funding became available to help poultry farmers relocate outside of floodplains, and some were taking advantage of it, especially on farms too old or too damaged to rebuild in the same spots.

The spate of recent storms has also taught hog farmers preventative steps to help reduce the risk of lagoon flooding.

“Efforts are made to lower the liquid levels of lagoons in a safe and approved method prior to hurricane arrivals, especially if they know in enough time to do so,” said Dockery.

But that’s the critical part: time . And there often isn’t enough of it for farmers.

After Floyd, they learned to run their tractors 24/7 to harvest as much of their crop as possible prior to a storm.

In the 48 hours before Matthew, the forecast shifted, leaving vulnerable farmers even less time to prepare.

For farmers — and others across North Carolina — the new question is what they’ll do in the time before the next storm hits.

It was a sign of things to come.

The wait for Matthew’s meteorological successor didn’t take 500 years or 50 years or even 17 years, like after Floyd.

Only two years later, Florence stripped away Matthew’s title as our worst flooding hurricane, with more than double its rainfall amounts and more than triple its damage bill — an estimated $17 billion , compared to $4.8 billion from Matthew.

For some even in the weather forecasting community, the accelerated rate at which these inland flooding hurricanes is occurring — now three within a 20-year period, from Floyd to Florence — has come as a shock.

“I was confident after Matthew I’d see no more huge floods like that one in my career, but after Florence I no longer have that confidence,” said Neuherz with NWS Wilmington.

“I guess the lesson was that even though you just had the big one, it doesn’t mean there isn’t another big one coming soon.”

From rain to river crests to costs, broken record after broken record, and big one after big one, flooding hurricanes are our future. And that future is happening now.

The North Carolina Climate Science Report , which summarizes changes in our climate and their impacts statewide, notes that “tropical cyclones are expected to produce heavier precipitation, and the strongest storms are projected to be even stronger in the future.”

Because of that, they establish that it’s likely — or at least a two-in-three chance of occurring — that increases in extreme precipitation will lead to increases of inland flooding in North Carolina. (The uncertainty is down to the circumstances of individual flooding events, such as the land over which the rain falls and the presence of antecedent moisture as with Floyd and Matthew.)

This assessment, and these recent storms, have already encouraged some groups across the state to rethink their future plans.

“Intensity is increasing from these events,” said DOT’s Lauffer, pointing to the Climate Science Report, which identified that those trends are expected to continue.

“We’ve learned a lot about climate and how it might be changing,” added Morgan. “Maybe that wasn’t a 100-year storm. Maybe that was a 25-year storm.”

After Matthew and Florence, the state Secretary of Transportation commissioned a flood resilience feasibility study for interstates 40 and 95. Its findings are already being implemented into design plans, such as building bridges to handle a 100-year flood event with an extra foot-and-a-half of freeboard to boot.

Identifying solutions isn’t as easy for all storm-affected groups across the state, but Matthew and Florence have at least forced folks like farmers to take note of our changing climate.

“I think they have an increased awareness that these storms are playing a major role in the general ag industry,” said Dockery. “They are more concerned about extreme precipitation events and how these events are affecting their farms, but they’re not quite sure what can be done about it, other than trying to fix land drainage issues.”

The widespread flooding and livestock losses in these events has certainly made poultry farmers pay attention.

“They’re keen that these events can strike areas that haven’t historically flooded, that are miles from a stream or river,” said Goforth. “They started being more proactive about knowing where the houses with a higher potential to flood were, and where houses that hadn’t previously flooded were in the floodplains.”

At the state level, more consideration is being given to help agriculture better weather these storms. As reported by the Coastal Review , the General Assembly approved legislation last year “to create an inventory of natural and working lands that could be used in flood control and potential incentives for private landowners to do stream restoration and wetlands enhancement and build flood-stage capacity.”

There’s a good reason for that focus on working lands such as farms and forests. A statewide 2017 greenhouse gas emissions study found that these areas “offset 25% of the state’s current greenhouse gas emissions,” or more than twice the average rate of other states.

The farm fields across North Carolina are our breadbasket, but they may be part of the key to managing and mitigating our future climate risks as well.

The recent storms beginning with Matthew have also gotten groups across the state working together more closely, from the Department of Transportation to NC Emergency Management to the National Weather Service to cities and towns that have borne the flooding impacts.

As Morgan from DOT put it, “one event brought together a lot of disparate ideas.”

From an emergency response standpoint, that collaboration has become a necessity.

“Matthew required a whole community approach to recovery,” said Thomas from NC Emergency Management. “The magnitude of the need required federal, state, local, private sector, and non-profit agencies to develop creative solutions to recovery and communication following large disasters. Results from this work include the State Disaster Recovery Task Force and a well-informed North Carolina Hurricane Guide .”

Those new partnerships should ultimately yield improved forecasts, communications, and infrastructure for future flood events.

Resiliency measures take time — there’s that word again, time — to be crafted and implemented, but they represent important steps in securing our state and our livelihoods against the impacts of flooding hurricanes.

Storm after storm, though, the aspects that aren’t as easily repaired are the broken hearts and broken lives of those they affect.

“To go visit a place after it floods is heart-wrenching,” said Blaes from NWS Raleigh. “Tornado surveys are one thing, but the flood water, the mold, the slime, the mud is everywhere. It’s emotional and it lasts so long.”

It has only been five years since Matthew, and parts of eastern North Carolina are assuredly still recovering: financially, structurally, emotionally.

With a little luck, a lot of cooperation, and a memory of the losses and lessons learned from Matthew, we’ll be better prepared to handle the next similar storm when — not if — it occurs.

Section header photos by NOAA via phys.org , the Fayetteville Observer , NWS Wilmington , NC DEQ via the Coastal Review , and NC DOT .

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hurricane ​matthew 2016

"Some Of Us Will Die" - USA TODAY

a   violent,   tropical,   cyclonic   storm   of   the   western   North   Atlantic,   having  wind   speeds   o f,   or   in   excess   of   72  mph / 118km/hr   (32   m/sec).

Additional  reading ..... The   ROLE  OF  CLIMATE  CHANGE .

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Before and After Hurricane Matthew

New photos show se beaches lost roads, dunes and structures, post hurricane matthew, usgs continues efforts to document how high floodwaters reached, record number of usgs sensors deployed for hurricane matthew, into the storm – hurricane matthew, usgs storm-tide sensors installed along coast prior to hurricane, hurricane matthew.

As Hurricane Matthew moves up the Atlantic coast of the U.S., the U.S. Geological Survey has deployed storm-tide sensors, forecast what coastal change to expect, and is ready to measure the extent of flooding likely to result from this storm.

Coastal Change Hazards

Flood Event Viewer (FEV)

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• St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
• Caribbean-Florida Water Science Center
• South Atlantic Water Science Center
• Virginia Water Science Center

Before and After Photos: SE Beach Dunes Lost to Hurricane Matthew

Earthview–hurricane matthew exacts heavy toll on haiti, post hurricane matthew: usgs continues efforts to document how high floodwaters reached, publications, impacts of the ocean-atmosphere coupling into the very short range prediction system during the impact of hurricane matthew on cuba, coastal hazards: hurricanes, tsunamis, coastal erosion.

Hurricane Matthew - Forecast and Documentation of Coastal Change

Forecasting Coastal Change

National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards

Record-breaking hurricane Matthew causes devastation

Hurricane Matthew re-wrote the record books across the Caribbean and southeastern United States in early October 2016, leaving behind a trail of devastation. Aided by warm waters in the Caribbean and along the Gulf Stream, Matthew brought strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas to Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the eastern seaboard of the United States from Florida to Maryland.

Hurricane Matthew making landfall across the southern peninsula of Haiti on October 4, 2016. To the northeast, over the Atlantic Ocean, spins, at the time, tropical storm Nicole. NASA/NOAA image from the Suomi-NPP Satellite taken from NOAA's Global Data Explorer . 

Matthew’s origin from normal storm to Category 5 monster

Matthew became a tropical storm close to the Lesser Antilles on September 28, and for several days tracked west as a tropical storm. The storm became named a Category 1 hurricane on September 29. After this relatively slow start, Matthew grew extremely strong, extremely quickly. In the 24 hours after September 30, Matthew intensified from a storm with 80mph winds to a Category 5 behemoth with 160mph winds.

Matthew was the first Category 5 storm in the Atlantic since 2007, and it was the lowest latitude Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record. All of which was even more unusual as it took place in the eastern Caribbean Ocean, a location which has been dubbed a “hurricane graveyard”—a place where low-pressure systems have routinely failed to develop into hurricanes.

Devastation in the Caribbean

After reaching Category 5 strength, Matthew abruptly changed course, heading north with Haiti and Cuba in its direct path. Matthew made landfall over the southern peninsula of Haiti on October 4 as a Category 4 storm, delivering 20 to 40 inches of rain in southern Haiti. It was the first time a Category 4 storm made landfall in Haiti since 1964.

Entire towns were destroyed, bridges washed away, and communities left stranded. As of mid-October, more than 1,000 people were listed as killed by the storm in Haiti alone. After striking Haiti, Matthew, still a major hurricane, barreled through Cuba and the Bahamas, leading to additional—though fewer—fatalities. Matthew was the first major hurricane on record to make landfall in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Next on Matthew’s target list: the United States.

Hurricane Matthew following the coastline of the southeastern United States on October 7, 2016. Matthew brought heavy rain, strong winds and a large storm surge to many southern states. NASA/NOAA image from the Suomi-NPP Satellite taken from NOAA's Global Data Explorer . 

Matthew’s United States storm surge impacts

After tearing through the Caribbean, Matthew maintained its strength by taking advantage of some of the warmest waters on record in the Caribbean and along the Gulf Stream. Matthew stayed a major hurricane for just over seven days, the fifth-longest streak on record. The storm tracked directly along the eastern Florida coastline, never officially making landfall, as the eye stayed over water, but buffeting the coastline with heavy rain, strong winds, and a large storm surge.

At some points, the eye of Matthew was less than 10 miles offshore. Even as it moved north and weakened, the storm was able to push a huge volume of ocean water onshore, causing extensive coastal flooding. Over 7 feet of storm surge (water level above the normal tides) was recorded in Fort Pulaski, Georgia. Charleston observed 6.1 feet of storm surge. Fernandina Beach, Florida saw 6.4 feet of storm surge.

In fact, three cities set all-time storm tide records (tide +storm surge) during Matthew. Fort Pulaski’s storm tide was 5.06 feet, breaking the previous record of 3.4 feet set in 1947. Wilmington, NC, and Mayport, FL, also broke storm tide records that had been set during previous hurricanes. In Charleston, high tide on the morning of September 8 rose to the third-highest on record.

Sea surface temperature anomalies (degrees Celsius) for the Atlantic Ocean during the week of September 26 - October 2, 2016. Above-normal waters helped Hurricane Matthew maintain its strength as it moved through the Caribbean towards the southeastern United States. NOAA Climate.gov image based on data from NOAA's Global Data Explorer .

Inland flooding – a hurricane’s less talked about, but incredibly dangerous impact

While the oceans battered the coastlines, huge amounts of rain caused inland flooding emergencies in the Carolinas, Georgia, and Virginia. Record-breaking sea surface temperatures led to record-breaking amounts of moisture in the air, which Matthew expertly turned into copious amounts of rain.

Precipitable water amounts—the amount of liquid water that would be produced if all the moisture in a column of atmosphere were to condense in an instant—were historically high in Jacksonville, FL, and Charleston, SC. More than ten inches of rain fell in large swaths of the southeastern United States. At Hunter Army Air Field in Savannah, Georgia, almost 17.5 inches of rain were recorded. Fourteen inches fell at Beaufort, SC. In Fayetteville, NC, nearly 15 inches of rain fell. According to FEMA , the governor of North Carolina said that over 2,000 rescues took place across the state, with nearly half the state’s counties in a state of emergency.

Precipitation totals (inches) from October 6-8, 2016. Hurricane Matthew's track close to the coast of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia led to extremely high rainfall amounts. Rainfall totals at or above a foot were common across a large swath of the areas affected. Flooding associated with the storm's heavy rain was widespread across the southeastern United States. NOAA Climate.gov map based on data from PRISM .

In Lumberton, NC, where 10 inches fell, the Lumber River rose to 24 feet, resting four feet above the previous record, inundating the town. Rescue workers were working to rescue 1500 people left stranded in the city.  Flooding concerns will likely last weeks after Matthew’s arrival. The storm left over a million people in North Carolina alone without power. Three million people in total in the United States lost power. Overall, at least 46 deaths were reported, with 26 fatalities located in North Carolina. The USA Today reported that damages in only the United States could be at least $6 billion, the costliest hurricane since Sandy.

Matthew’s track was an oddity as it paralleled the coast of the United States for such a distance, only making landfall in South Carolina after weakening to a Category 1 storm. Its path and the warm sea surface temperatures made impacts such as storm surge and inland flooding due to heavy rain especially severe. Hurricane Matthew was surely one for the history books: a storm whose impacts will be felt for quite a while.  

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• 1. Introduction
• a. Study area
• c. Data collection procedures
• d. Data analysis techniques
• a. Sample size and characteristics
• b. Evacuees versus non-evacuees
• 4. Conclusions

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Conceptual framework.

Location of our surveys.

Photo of team member and survey participant.

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Evacuation Decision-Making during Hurricane Matthew: An Assessment of the Effects of Social Connections

Displayed acceptance dates for articles published prior to 2023 are approximate to within a week. If needed, exact acceptance dates can be obtained by emailing  [email protected] .

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This study conducted in Florida examines the relationship between an individual’s social connections and their decision to evacuate during a hurricane warning. Using Hurricane Matthew in 2016 as a case study, a survey was conducted on two groups (those who evacuated and those who did not), assessing one’s social connections considering three dimensions: dependability, density, and diversity. These factors, in addition to socioeconomic variables (e.g., age, race, education), were used to better define a picture for what influences evacuation decision-making. To avoid memory decay, the surveys were completed at the time of the evacuation for those who evacuated and immediately after the passage of Matthew for those who did not evacuate. It was concluded, through statistical analyses, that the perceived dependability of a person’s social connections (i.e., their perceived access to resources and support) played a significant role in the decision to evacuate or not, with non-evacuees having more dependable relationships and having a tightknit community they can rely on during a storm event. On the other hand, the density and diversity of peoples’ social connections did not significantly impact the decision to evacuate. This study has important implications for adding to the knowledge base on community-based sustainable disaster preparedness and resilience.

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The impact of major hurricanes striking the United States has redirected attention to examining the influence of social support and social connections in prompting individuals and families to evacuate when a storm warning is issued ( Dash and Gladwin 2007 ; Gladwin et al. 2001 ; Haines et al. 2002 ; Whitehead et al. 2000 ). The devastating impact particularly of Hurricane Katrina on the city of New Orleans and surrounding Gulf Coast ( Schmidlin 2006 ) heightened the need to understand the way social connections function, particularly for vulnerable populations who have become socially and economically marginalized ( Cutter et al. 2003 ; Moore et al. 2004 ; Real 2007 ). As a result, understanding the influence of social connectedness and social support on evacuation behavior remains a relevant component for disaster mitigation and preparedness planning.

Vulnerability research encompasses geophysical processes as well as social and economic factors ( Cutter and Finch 2008 ; Tobin and Montz 1997 ; Wisner et al. 2004 ). Wisner et al. (2004 , p. 11) define vulnerability as “the characteristics of a person or group and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard.” This conceptualization of vulnerability shifts attention to the role social connections and supports play in buffering people, processes, and places when confronted with exposure to a natural hazard. Much of this thinking is incorporated into the well-known Pressure and Release model (PAR) developed by Wisner et al. (2004) , which identifies various social and geophysical pressures believed to heighten the level of vulnerability for individuals and communities, thereby contributing to a disaster.

While literature on the function of social connectedness within a context of natural disasters continues to emerge, there is empirical evidence on the utility of social ties in buffering pathogenic stressors ( Caplan 1974 ; Sarason and Sarason 1985 ). Specifically, the work of Cohen and Wills (1985) notes that social supports act to “buffer” or protect persons from harmful influences of stressful life events. They discuss both structural and functional measures of social integration and note that while the former assesses the existence of relationships, it falls short of measuring “the functions actually provided by those relationships” ( Cohen and Wills 1985 , p. 314). They further note low correlations reported in other studies (e.g., Barrera 1981 ; Cohen et al. 1982 ) between the number of social connections and functional support since “adequate functional support may be derived from one very good relationship, but not be available to those with multiple superficial relationships” ( Cohen and Wills 1985 , p. 315). Cohen et al. (1985) recommend further study of the functional domain of social support, particularly tangible resources that an individual can depend on in coping with an impending stressor and the utility of social supports within other contexts. Our conceptual framework considers the role social support and social connectedness have on peoples’ evacuation decision-making. We argue that supportive functional social connections may buffer people from the deleterious impact of a hurricane.

Lakey and Cohen (2000) suggest social supports buffer a stressor to the extent that the type of support adequately meets the demand of the stressor. Therefore, it is important to examine the diversity of one’s social connections and the function or dependability of the support available. Miller (2007) acknowledges the important role of diverse formal and informal social connections in sharing information and establishing trust during evacuations stemming from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Both the number of contacts and the range of contacts across different social roles aided in the evacuation process.

The density or closeness of social connections and ties with individuals who share similar social and economic characteristics has been shown to provide increased sources of support during a natural hazard ( Haines et al. 2002 ; Haines and Hurlbert 1992 ). Social isolation stemming from a lack of connectedness with social supports was found to contribute to one’s vulnerability, as suggested by the demographic profile of those who did not evacuate during Hurricane Katrina ( Brinkley 2006 ). Likewise, social connections deemed to be weaker or less dense, but provide greater network diversity, suggest increased access to resources that are harder to obtain ( Granovetter 1973 ; Unger and Powell 1980 ).

How social connections are utilized to influence hazard evacuation behavior remains a critical component for the development of disaster resilience models as part of mitigation and preparedness planning ( Buckle 2006 ; Dynes 2002 ). Dynes (2002 , p. 18) asserts that “social networks provide the channels whereby individuals develop a perception of risk and can be motivated to take some type of preventative action.” While social supports are intuitively thought to play a pivotal role in disaster preparedness and decision-making ( Mathbor 2007 ), a paucity of studies on the topic provides mixed results with regard to hazard evacuations ( Dynes 2002 ; Riad and Norris 1998 ). Therefore, it remains uncertain just how informal supports and social connections are used to arrive at a decision to leave or stay and whether the process varies in relation to certain social and economic characteristics of individuals and their communities ( Moore et al. 2004 ).

Figure 1 depicts the conceptual framework guiding this study. Characteristics such as ethnicity, gender, age, income, and education often shape the number and types of social connections formed among people. Here, social connections are operationalized according to three dimensions: density, diversity, and dependability. Each is assessed from high to low using two validated instruments. Social connection density refers to the number and the closeness of social relationships. Social connection diversity measures the variety of social relationships (e.g., within and outside the family). Social connection dependability assesses the perceived functional nature of the social relationship to determine any tangible type of support or resource available. Solid arrows in the figure illustrate our deconstruction of social connectedness into the three dimensions, which in turn are suggested to influence evacuation behavior. Dashed arrows indicate the possible outcomes resulting from evacuation decision-making, that is, to evacuate or not evacuate (nonevacuation in our study includes those who sheltered in place or went to a local shelter).

Citation: Weather, Climate, and Society 9, 4; 10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0047.1

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We examine the following hypotheses related to the density, diversity, and dependability of social connections with regards to evacuation status during Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. People who evacuated (evacuees) compared to those who did not (non-evacuees) will have a significantly larger number of social supports (more dense), significantly closer supports (more dense), significantly varied supports (more diverse), and significantly more functional supports (dependable). In addition, we posit that there is a positive correlation between social class and dependability of social connections.

2. Methodology

Because of Florida’s long peninsula, there are limited choices in evacuation routes, thus increasing vulnerability for the coastal population ( Cutter et al. 2007 ). Dow and Cutter (2002) note considerable traffic pressure during an evacuation with choke points forming on highways where cars can be jammed for hours. This study surveyed evacuees at a westbound rest stop on Interstate 4 in Polk County, Florida, on 5 and 6 October. Surveys of non-evacuees were conducted at a Home Depot in the city of Titusville on 8 October and a Walmart Neighborhood Market in Port Orange on 9 October ( Figs. 2 , 3 ). On 2 October, the Florida east coast was on the western edge of the 4–5-day forecasted track cone of uncertainty. On 3 October, the majority of the eastern side of the state of Florida was in the cone of uncertainty for the 4–5-day forecasted track. On 4 October, Brevard County, which includes our study sites where we interviewed non-evacuees, was under a hurricane watch. On 5 October, Brevard County was in the 1–3-day cone of uncertainty. On 5 and 6 October, Brevard County had a mandatory evacuation order for barrier islands, Merritt Island, low-lying flood prone areas, and mobile or manufactured homes. Governor Rick Scott urged other coastal residents potentially in harm’s way not to wait to leave. On 7 October, as the storm skimmed Florida, Brevard County was the portion of Florida closest to Matthew’s Center ( Stewart 2017 ). On this date, a tropical storm warning was issued for the Volusia/Brevard County line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

A 15-min survey instrument containing 62 items was used to collect sociodemographic data along with information on previous and current hurricane evacuation experiences; factors influencing evacuation decision-making; and the density, diversity, and dependability of social connections. The latter three dimensions were measured using two valid questionnaires related to research on social ties and networks.

1) Berkman–Syme social network index

The Berkman–Syme social network index (B-SSNI; Berkman and Syme 1979 ) measures the diversity and density of an individual’s social connections. We used the B-SSNI to assess the type, size, closeness, and frequency of contacts in a respondent’s current social network. This 11-item instrument is a composite measure of several types of social connections: sociability (number and frequency of contacts with close relatives and close friends), church group membership, and membership in other community organizations.

2) Interpersonal support evaluation list

The interpersonal support evaluation list (ISEL; Cohen and Hoberman 1983 ; Cohen et al. 1985 ) measures the functional component of social support. Cohen and Syme (1985) refer to social supports as those resources that can be offered by other individuals to provide aid or assistance. We use the ISEL to assess the perceived dependability (or functionality) of an individual’s social networks. The 40-item general population version of the ISEL is divided into four subscales. For the purpose of our study, the tangible subscale was used, incorporating 10 items to assess a specific form of support the respondent believes can be obtained from his/her social support network (e.g., if I needed a ride to the airport very early in the morning, I would have a hard time finding someone to take me). Each item is rated on a four-point Likert scale with anchors ranging from “definitely true” to “definitely false.” Cohen et al. (1985) report the ISEL to have excellent internal consistency and good test–retest reliability.

An important limitation to evacuation behavior studies is the potential for “memory decay” when asked to recall past actions and factors that influenced decisions ( Stallings 2002 ). Baker (1979 , 1995) and Lindell et al. (2005) note that in addition to the inability of people to articulate their prior decisions, it is also likely that people’s ideas and perceptions also changed over time. Brewer (2000) notes it is particularly difficult when people try to recall their social networks. Since memories change with the passage of time, the timing of research of people in relation to their hurricane experiences and evacuation decisions is critical. In this study, we overcome this problem by collecting data for an expected landfalling hurricane immediately as evacuation commenced. The Interstate-4 rest stop location allowed us to capture evacuees as they came from the east coast of Florida inland. Senkbeil et al. (2010) and Brommer and Senkbeil (2010) also adopted this real-time approach for their evacuation study of Hurricane Gustav. In addition, data were collected on the non-evacuees immediately after the storm passed. This methodology of collecting real-time or near-real-time data will likely provide more accurate results than previous studies since people are more likely to remember the intricacies of their decisions, allowing us to gain useful insight. Convenience sampling was used here because of the real-time conditions under which data were gathered. Norris (2006) has noted the prevalent use of this method in her analysis of 225 disaster studies. Only one person from a family or group was surveyed.

All data were coded and cleaned and then analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS), version 23. Statistical analyses focused on two-tailed independent samples Student’s t tests for the difference in means to examine evacuation status on each measure (e.g., density, diversity, dependability) and Mann–Whitney U tests to compare sources of information participants relied on to inform their evacuation status and the degree to which they relied on them. A Spearman’s correlation was conducted in order to determine the correlation between dependability of social connections and social class (as measured by several demographic data collected such as income and education). These different tests were used due to the varying types of data collected from the survey, some being continuous, some categorical, and others ordinal.

Our sample size was N = 132. Those surveyed included 15 early evacuees on 5 October, 47 later evacuees on 6 October, 17 Titusville non-evacuees on 8 October, and 53 Daytona non-evacuees on 9 October. The groups were combined to create 62 evacuation surveys and 70 nonevacuation surveys. It was noted that evacuees often came from locations outside of areas that were under a voluntary or mandatory evacuation order. Likewise some non-evacuees were found to live in areas that were ordered to evacuate. The rejection rate was 65% for people not willing to complete the survey, possibly because of the rush evacuating from the storm or repairing damage poststorm. Analyses of the sample revealed the category of each demographic variable, which people self-identified with the most, that is, 78.8% of people were between 18 and 64 years of age, 51.5% were female, 67.4% were white, 47.7% completed a college degree, and 23.5% made $80,000 or higher. Note that for some of these demographic variables, there were several categories the participant could choose from; for instance, they had the option to self-identify with eight different incomes ranges and four different levels of education.

It should be noted that with the non-evacuee group, no one reported going to a shelter. We used a two-tailed independent samples Student’s t test for the difference between the mean responses of evacuees and non-evacuees ( Table 1 ). The B-SSNI looked at density in regards to how many people are found in their networks and how close they are, along with network diversity. When considering the two dimensions of density and diversity, results showed no significant differences between evacuees and non-evacuees. However, a significant result was found with the social connection dimension of dependability using the ISEL index, comparing evacuees to non-evacuees : t (125) = −2.089 and p = 0.039. When comparing the mean score for dependability between the two groups (evacuees and non-evacuees), evacuees show a lower mean score (22.24) compared to non-evacuees (24.74), suggesting that those who evacuated perceived their networks to be less dependable. We might infer that non-evacuees felt they could rely on their networks for support allowing them to hunker down, feeling secure with the people around them. The Mann–Whitney U test, which looked at evacuees and non-evacuees and if they relied on family far away (50 miles or more) for information that influenced their decision to evacuate or not showed a significant relationship again pointing to this conclusion ( U = 1612.5, p = 0.023).

Hypotheses, variables, tests, and results. Note the Student’s t test refers to a two-tailed independent sample Student’s t test for difference in means. Values in bold represent significant results found with the social connection dimension of dependability using the ISEL index. Note that those who go to a shelter or those who shelter in place are referred to in this paper as non-evacuees. In this study, there were no participants who responded that they went to a shelter.

Finally, we examined the correlation between dependability and social class based on income. The Spearman’s rho indicated a weak to moderate positive significant relationship ( r s = 0.249, p = 0.011). Likewise, examining the correlation between dependability and social class based on education, the Spearman’s rho showed a weak, positive significant relationship ( r s = 0.186, p = 0.041). Other demographic variables, such as ethnicity, were considered in our analyses, but only income and education showed significant relationships.

The decision to evacuate from a hurricane is characterized by a multitude of social- and storm-specific variables that together relate to the seriousness of the threat and combine to influence risk perception and decision-making differently for each individual or household. Many evacuation behavior studies have examined meteorological variables related to the decision-making process ( Zhang et al. 2007 ; Senkbeil et al. 2010 ; Brommer and Senkbeil 2010 ; Stein et al. 2010 ). This study considers the social influences on hurricane evacuation behavior, which has emerged as a strong influence from recent storms such as Hurricane Katrina. The development of sustainable community-based disaster preparedness will benefit from approaches that consider the influence of real-time decision-making regarding the role of social support and connectedness on evacuation decision-making. This research showed that the dependability dimension of social connections has a significant effect on the decision to evacuate, with those who have more perceived functional support tending to not evacuate, as they feel comfortable and receive support with their local communities. Because of the results from the Spearman’s rho, areas of socioeconomic weak spots (as determined in this study by education and income) may have trouble in an emergency situation because of the importance of functional support as determined by the dependability dimension. Further studies considering social connections related to future hurricane evacuations are needed to verify this result. Hazard managers may be able to integrate this new knowledge into more targeted disaster education campaigns. Likewise, local disaster service organizations may better understand the role social support and connectedness play in linking individuals to preparedness and recovery services as a way to promote community resiliency.

Acknowledgments

We would like to acknowledge the USF hurricane team for their fieldwork including Michelle Saunders, Daniel Gessman, Christopher Mehta, Emily Cerrito, Kerri Dickey, Amy Polen, and Saurav Chakraborty. We thank Michelle Saunders for her help with creating Fig. 2 . We would also like to acknowledge Douglas Lunsford for his statistical advice in analyzing this dataset. This research was funded in part by a grant from the University of Colorado Natural Hazards Center through its Quick Response Grant Program, which is funded by National Science Foundation Grant Number CMMI1030760.

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Losses Avoided from Hurricane Matthew in North Carolina

Study summary.

This study examines losses avoided in the State of North Carolina as a result of previous hazard mitigation projects. A large number of the projects were property acquisition and demolition in this analysis. The data clearly show that substantially more damage would have occurred if these properties had not been acquired.

Hurricane Matthew hit North Carolina in early October 2016. A Federal Disaster was declared on October 4, 2016. According to the latest estimate from the North Carolina Department of Public Safety, Hurricane Matthew-related flooding has impacted more than 100,000 structures in the State valued at $1.5 billion. To date, there have been 2,336 water rescues and 26 storm-related deaths in the State of North Carolina.

In eastern North Carolina, local governments issued mandatory evacuations, and as of October 16, 2016, there were 2,179 State residents in 32 shelters run by the State. In Lenoir County, 200 people were in the two County shelters, and County officials are working to find temporary homes for residents. National Guard reservists, State Highway Patrol, and Coast Guard members are standing ready throughout the County to assist residents. In the City of Kinston, NC (located in Lenoir County), approximately 1,000 structures have been affected by flooding from Hurricane Matthew. Preliminary estimates indicate that flooding in Kinston has impacted over 800 homes and 170 commercial properties with an estimated value of $125 million.

Unfortunately, North Carolina has extensive experience with hurricanes and the damage they can inflict. Although there is significant damage in the State, things could have been much worse. After Hurricane Fran in 1996, North Carolina received FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) funding for 478 projects. The State received $323 million for implementing activities such as property acquisition/relocation, elevation, stormwater management, utility protective measures, retrofitting of public structures, public awareness and education, and water and sanitary sewer system protective measures. Included in these projects is the acquisition or elevation above the 100-year flood elevation of approximately 6,000 properties.

Lenoir County and the City of Kinston, both hit heavily by Hurricane Fran, worked with the State of North Carolina and FEMA, using HMA funds, to acquire 420 structures, 3 mobile home parks, and 68 vacant lots that were located in the most flood-prone areas of the City and County. The goal of these acquisitions was to move people and structures out of areas that would likely be impacted by flooding in the future. By removing these structures and maintaining the areas as open space, the City managed to decrease the losses experienced during Hurricane Matthew.

According to the Mayor of Kinston, “ Having experienced two floods of the century in less than two decades is pretty phenomenal in and of itself, but actually, because of that, 90 percent of the residential areas that would be impacted today, they’ve already been moved out because FEMA bought those houses years ago ,” said Kinston Mayor B.J. Murphy.

Maps 1 and 2 and Tables 1 and 2 illustrate areas in North Carolina where flood-prone properties were acquired using FEMA grant funds, and the losses avoided as a result of these acquisitions. These data are based on geographic information system (GIS) information from FEMA. Of the 6,000 properties mitigated throughout the State, 2,249 properties located in the Hurricane Matthew flood-impacted areas were considered in this study. For a conservative (lower bound) analysis, 488 properties that had less than 2 feet of floodwater were not included.

This study did not take into account other losses avoided, such as emergency response costs, insurance payments, debris removal, and others, so the actual losses avoided are likely substantially higher than what the GIS data show.

The upper bound estimate accounts for 2,249 structures that were acquired or elevated at a total project cost of$271,061,352. This equals a Return on Investment (ROI) of 0.87 and a total losses avoided amount of $234,814,741.

Table 1. Estimate of Losses Avoided from Hurricane Matthew in North Carolina – Upper Bound Estimate

The lower bound estimate accounts for 1,761 structures that were acquired or elevated at a total project cost of$266,222,172. This equals a Return on Investment (ROI) for the grant funds of 0.77 and total losses avoided amount of $206,653,920.

Table 2. Estimate of Losses Avoided from Hurricane Matthew in North Carolina – Lower Bound Estimate

This study shows that even with a conservative, lower bound estimate of damages avoided, there is still a significant benefit to the State, communities, and residents as a direct result of their determination and commitment to hazard mitigation. In short, mitigation works; it saves lives and properties and reduces the financial impact of hazards on the community.

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Case Study – Hurricane Matthew

SAFEY sent alerts to all users in Hati, Bahamas, Cuba, and the east coast of the

United States. Multiple warnings were sent prior to the storm making landfall, and advice was provided. The SAFEY Emergency System sends advice on how to prepare and what to do during a hurricane, as many travelers may not be prepared for hurricane emergency procedures.

Our advice to travelers:

Know the difference.

• Hurricanes/Typhoon/Tropical Storm Watch – Conditions are a threat within 48 hours. Review your storm plans. Get ready to act if a warning is issued, and stay informed
• Hurricanes/Typhoon/Tropical Storm Warning – Conditions are expected within 36 hours. Complete your storm preparations and leave the area if directed to do so by authorities

If a tropical storm/hurricane/typhoon is likely in your area, you should:     

• Monitor news sources and this safety service for information
• Close storm shutters/windows and secure outdoor objects or bring them indoors
• Avoid using the phone, except for serious emergencies.

You should evacuate under the following conditions:

• If you are directed by local authorities or advised by this safety service to do so. Be sure to follow the instructions of local authorities.

If you are unable to evacuate, go to a wind-safe room. If unavailable, follow these guidelines:

• Stay indoors during the hurricane and away from windows and glass doors
• Close all interior doors – secure and brace external doors.
• Keep curtains and blinds closed. Do not be fooled if there is a lull; it could be the eye of the storm – winds will pick up again.
• Take refuge in a small interior room, closet or hallway on the lowest level.
• Lie on the floor under a table or another sturdy object.
• Avoid elevators.

After a tropical storm/hurricane you should:

• Continue monitoring Weather news, local news and this security information service for the latest updates.
• Stay alert for extended rainfall and subsequent flooding even after the hurricane or tropical storm has ended.
• If you evacuated, return home only when officials say it is safe
• Drive only if necessary and avoid flooded roads and washed out bridges. Stay off the streets. If you must go out watch for fallen objects; downed electrical wires; and weakened walls, bridges, roads, and sidewalks.
• Keep away from loose or dangling power lines.
• Stay out of any building if you smell gas.
• Use battery-powered flashlights in the dark. Do NOT use candles
• Avoid drinking or preparing food with tap water until you are sure it’s not contaminated.
• Use the telephone only for emergency calls

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Hurricane Matthew in Haiti 2016

Hurricane Matthew hit Haiti in October 2016. It was the worst disaster to strike Haiti since the 2010 earthquake,  and it affected over two million people. ActionAid’s humanitarian response was led by local people and partners, with a programme that was quick, effective, and focused on priorities identified by local communities themselves.

We supported over 58,000 people in some of Haiti’s remotest regions, providing food, water and cholera prevention kits, building long-term resilience through cash for work, commerce and farming, and prioritising women’s rights and protection through women’s safe spaces, enterprise and training.

Women were leaders at all levels of the ActionAid Hurricane Matthew response. From Ismene, the female civil engineer who spearheaded the build of our ‘Women’s Friendly Spaces’, to Elsia, a Cash for Work team leader who sheltered 40 people during the hurricane, we ensured the specific needs of women were met and that their voices were heard and skills valued.

Hurricane Matthew: facts and figures 

On the night of 4 October 2016 , Hurricane Matthew struck the south-western tip of Haiti bringing heavy rainfall in the south, south-east and the north-west, and creating the largest humanitarian emergency in the country since the 2010 earthquake.

The Category 4 storm left 806,000 people in need of urgent food assistance and caused considerable damage to housing and agricultural sectors.

Who was affected and what damage was caused?

• 546 people died in the hurricane, and an estimated 175,500 people were displaced, scattered in over 300 temporary shelters.
• 2.1 million people were affected and 1.4 million people were in need of humanitarian assistance , including 800,000 children.
• 34 cholera treatment centres were destroyed.
• 806,000 people were at an extreme level of food insecurity.
• In the badly-affected region of Grand’Anse, over 90% of crops were destroyed , as well as a significant loss of livestock.

Ilafab Felix, 69, and his grandson Eric, 9, (name changed), sitting by the remains of their house which was completely crushed by a nearby tree during Hurricane Matthew. Photo: Dylan Roberts/FreeSociety/ActionAid

What was ActionAid’s response to Hurricane Matthew?

ActionAid Haiti's response focused on the Grand’Anse department in the south west , because it is one of the worst affected areas, and because ActionAid has a strong local presence and existing partners in the region.

Within Grand’Anse we responded in five communes : Abricots, Beaumont, Bonbon, Jeremie, and Roseaux.

As always, our response was coordinated in terms of the immediate, medium and long term.

Immediate term response (Oct-Nov 2016):

Just hours after the hurricane on 5 October, our team set out distributing initial response kits, and despite the challenging conditions, we were able to start distributing hygiene kits soon afterwards. For example:

• We delivered first response kits to 2,804 households , supporting over 14,000 individuals with basic essentials.
• We reduced the risk of cholera by giving 3,394 households cholera/hygiene kits , and 1,066 households water cleaning tablets.
• We also trained 3,997 people in hygiene awareness . 

Medium term response (Dec 2016-Jan 2017):

In the medium-term, we focussed on empowering and protecting women and helping people earn an income again, through our Cash for Work schemes. For example:

• We trained  603 community representatives in how to protect women  (reaching up to 30,150 people) and constructed  four Women Friendly Spaces
• We gave out  cash vouchers  for agriculture (742 households), shelter (1,120 households) and women's commerce (1,000 women).
• We provided  cash for 10 days of work  to 2,554 individuals, which rehabilitated 24km of roads and 54.18 hectares of farmland.
• We  trained 78 locally skilled builders  to build back better, including 22 women.

Women working as part of ActionAid's Cash for Work scheme in Haiti

Women leading the Cash for Work scheme

ActionAid reached 1,244 people in the Grand’Anse region through our Cash for Work scheme.

Each individual was paid for 10 days of work , as well as performing one day of ‘community participation’.

The work consisted mostly of road clearing and repair, but also involved  agriculture in the community .

Workers were in teams of 13 including one ‘chief’, as well as one ‘supervisor’ for every 5 teams. 50% of the participants, and most of the team leaders, were women .

Long term response (Feb-April 2017):

In the long term, we continued to promote women's leadership , supported children, and helped communities to ' build back better '.

For example:

• We  trained   38 female entrepeneurs  in management, marketing and how to make beauty and hygeine products.
• We offered  psychosocial support to 1,719 children , through our Child Friendly Spaces.
• We gave solar lamps to 500 households, which are also torches and phone chargers.

Ismene, a social worker and civil engineer, worked with ActionAid during the Hurricane Matthew humanitarian response in Haiti from October 2016.

Engineer Ismene supervised building work and training

Ismene was employed by ActionAid to deliver women's protection training, and as a qualified engineer, she also supervised the building of our four Women Friendly Spaces.

"We ran the trainings in hired spaces – church halls, schools," she said.

"But now after the Women’s Friendly Spaces are built, women will have their own space to get together and learn."

Learn more about women's leadership

How did our response promote women's leadership?

Women face additional challenges during a disaster. It is mostly women who are the caretakers of people in Haiti – the youngest, the eldest; they fetch water and do all the domestic chores. When a community is in crisis, this domestic burden on women increases . This entire burden falls onto their shoulders, and the turbulent context means that they are also vulnerable to increased sexual violence and exploitation.

That's why helping local women be at the forefront of our response is so important, making our response more effective, inclusive and sustainable.

• Two months before the hurricane, ActionAid facilitated training of 30 women to become leaders in emergencies.
• In the immediate aftermath, we identified additional strong women leaders who wanted to help, through our local partners.
• We provided small wages to compensate women for their leadership work, giving recognition and value to their work.

Yolette Etienne, ActionAid Haiti Country Director said:

At every step of our response, women were promoted, valued, and taken into account.”

Team leader Elsa sheltered 40 people in her home

When Elsia’s house was the only one left standing in her community on the night of Hurricane Matthew, she took in over 40 community members of all ages, giving them food, her clothes, even her bed.

She took part in many of ActionAid’s response activities, including becoming a team leader of 13 men and women in our Cash for Work scheme.

She said: "I am the leader of this group of people working on the land, planting beans and corn. I, as a woman, am participating and leading this team. I have hope for my community, because with solidarity, support, training, awareness and working together, we can make a change.

"It’s already changing. In particular, women are being given empowerment, being given commerce and livelihoods . The training doesn’t just give us something tangible but also makes a positive change in your mind-set, on how you should be, what you deserve, how you should deal with problems. These are creating positive changes in the community. They are spreading hope and making everyone feel that they are not alone."

Elsa worked as a team leader during ActionAid's emergency response to Hurricane Matthew

What are ActionAid’s plans for future work in Grand’Anse?

ActionAid has a long standing relationship with communities in Grand’Anse and has worked alongside our local partner KPGA for almost 10 years. We will continue to maintain this strong presence in the area for the foreseeable future , transitioning out of the emergency response phase and into development and longer-term work.

We will work to reinforce our new partnerships , as well as our strong relationship with KPGA. We will also continue to support our sponsored children and communities that live in the hurricane-affected region.

ActionAid’s strong focus on building local capacity – through training on women’s protection, on hygiene, on accountability, and for builders and entrepreneurs – has embedded skills and knowledge in a very vulnerable community and hopefully built capacity to respond with more strength to future shocks .

The Women’s Friendly Spaces we have constructed will be permanent community resources , facilitated by ActionAid and local partners to provide support for individual women and to bring groups of women together in the years to come.

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The latest | pecker says he wanted to keep tabloid's agreement with trump 'as quiet as possible'.

Associated Press

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump sits in Manhattan state court in New York, Monday, April 23, 2024. (Brendan McDermid/Pool Photo via AP)

NEW YORK – Former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified Tuesday that he offered to be the “eyes and ears” of Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign, a pledge that led to an agreement to give Trump's personal lawyer advance notice of allegations and negative stories that might hamper the political aspirations of the then-candidate.

Pecker elaborated on that agreement, testifying that the tabloid ran negative stories about Trump's political opponents and even paid for a doorman's silence after the man came forward with allegations that Trump had fathered a child.

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Testimony in the case resumed just before midday following a morning hearing on the former president’s alleged gag order violations .

Like on Monday, Pecker was the only witness to take the stand in the historic hush money case.

Prosecutors have said the former tabloid publisher worked with Trump and Michael Cohen on a “catch-and-kill” strategy to buy up and then spike negative stories. Among the allegations is a $130,000 payment that Cohen made to porn actor Stormy Daniels to bury her claim of an extramarital sexual encounter with Trump in 2006. Trump has denied that the encounter ever took place.

Prosecutors and defense attorneys in opening statements Monday painted competing portraits of the former president — one depicting him as someone who sought to corrupt the 2016 presidential election for his own benefit and another describing him as an innocent, everyday man who was being subjected to a case the government “should never have brought.”

Prosecutors say Trump obscured the true nature of those payments in internal business documents.

He has pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

The case is the first criminal trial of a former American president and the first of four prosecutions of Trump to reach a jury.

— Key takeaways from the opening statements in Donald Trump’s hush money trial

— Key players: Who’s who at Donald Trump’s hush money criminal trial

— The hush money case is just one of Trump's legal cases. See the others here

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— What to know in the Supreme Court case about immunity for former President Trump

Here's the latest:

WHITE HOUSE SPOKESPERSON MAKES DIG AT TRUMP

The White House has steered clear of talking about Donald Trump’s criminal hush money trial, but spokesperson Andrew Bates appeared to make a sly reference to the courtroom on Tuesday.

While speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Florida, Bates began his briefing by asking that “nobody fall asleep while we talk.”

At the trial’s outset, some reporters suggested that it appeared there were times that Trump drifted off to sleep while watching the proceedings. The former president’s campaign disputed that. With no video camera in place and trained on him, there’s no way of knowing for sure.

COURT WRAPS FOR THE DAY

The jury in Donald Trump's hush money trial has been sent home for the day, with court adjourning early for the Passover holiday.

Jurors had to directly pass by Trump at the defense table as they exited just after 2 p.m. but none appeared to look in his direction.

Afterward, Trump peered at reporters in the courtroom gallery as he ambled to the hallway. He clutched the same pile of clipped papers he walked in with earlier.

Trial proceedings will resume on Thursday.

NATIONAL ENQUIRER EMAIL AND INVOICE ENTERED INTO EVIDENCE

An internal National Enquirer email and invoice were entered into evidence in Donald Trump's hush money trial Tuesday afternoon.

The documents were shown to jurors and describe payments made to Dino Sajudin, then a Trump Tower doorman, to kill his story about a child Trump had allegedly fathered with an employee.

One of the documents describes the funds coming from the publication’s “corporate” account. An invoice prepared by an executive editor references an “immediate” $30,000 bank transfer payment for “‘Trump’ non-published story.”

The tabloid ultimately concluded the story was not true, and the woman and Trump have both denied the allegations.

PECKER SAYS HE HAD NEVER PAID TO BURY A STORY ABOUT TRUMP BEFORE DOORMAN CAME ALONG

David Pecker testified Tuesday that he'd never paid to bury a story about Donald Trump before Dino Sajudin, then a doorman at Trump Tower, came along.

The former National Enquirer publisher recalled calling Michael Cohen and explaining that they could purchase the doorman’s silence for $30,000 by buying the exclusive rights to his story.

“He said, ‘Who’s going to pay for it?’ I said, ‘I’ll pay for it,’” Pecker testified. “Then he said, ‘Thank you very much.’ He said, ‘The boss will be very pleased.’”

In response to the prosecutor’s question about who he understood “the boss” to be, Pecker replied: “Donald Trump.”

Explaining why he decided to have the National Enquirer foot the bill, Pecker testified: “This was going to be a very big story."

He added that it would “probably be the biggest sale of the National Enquirer since the death of Elvis Presley,” but noted he would’ve held it until after the election, citing his agreement with Cohen.

Pecker described the National Enquirer’s “normal” procedure of placing Sajudin under a polygraph test to determine if his tip was legitimate, but prosecutor Joshua Steinglass stopped him before he could reveal the results, which isn’t allowed in court.

Pecker said the National Enquirer hired a private investigator, sent reporters to a location where the supposed child was living and used other verification methods — ultimately learning that the story was “1,000% untrue.”

“Had you ever paid a story to kill a story about Donald Trump?” Steinglass asked.

“No I had not,” Pecker said.

QUESTIONING TURNS TO CLAIMS FROM FORMER TRUMP TOWER DOORMAN

Following questions about his relationship with Donald Trump, the former publisher of the National Enquirer was asked Tuesday about claims brought forth by a former Trump Tower doorman.

The doorman, Dino Sajudin, received $30,000 from the National Enquirer in 2015 for the rights to a rumor that Trump had fathered a child with an employee at Trump World Tower. The tabloid concluded the story was not true, and the woman and Trump have both denied the allegations.

As David Pecker described receiving the tip in court, Trump shook his head.

Pecker testified that upon hearing the rumor, he immediately called Michael Cohen, who said it was “absolutely not true” but that he would look into whether the people involved worked for Trump’s company.

TRUMP AMPLIFIED DUBIOUS NATIONAL ENQUIRER CLAIMS IN 2016

David Pecker’s testimony on Tuesday in Donald Trump's hush money trial provided a seamy backstory to Trump’s rise from political novice to president of the United States.

With Cohen acting as a shadow editor of sorts, Pecker said he and the National Enquirer parlayed trashy rumor-mongering into splashy tabloid stories that tarred Trump’s opponents while also running pieces that boosted his image.

The articles were timed to run just as Trump’s rivals were climbing in polls, and some of the allegations — such as articles falsely tying Ted Cruz’s father to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy — entered the mainstream via cable news and conservative-leaning talk programs.

Trump himself amplified the National Enquirer’s absurd allegations about Cruz’s father in May 2016, telling Fox News in one interview, “His father was with Lee Harvey Oswald prior to Oswald’s being, you know, shot.”

“Nobody even brings it up, I mean they don’t even talk about that. That was reported and nobody talks about it,” he went on.

Trump had a history in 2016 of repeating unproven and unsubstantiated stories, many from the National Enquirer, which had endorsed his candidacy. After the tabloid printed a story without evidence that claimed Cruz was having an extramarital affair, Trump praised the publication for having a “very good” record of accuracy.

COHEN WOULD ASK TABLOID TO RUN NEGATIVE ARTICLES ON TRUMP'S POLITICAL OPPONENTS, PECKER SAYS

The National Enquirer's former publisher David Pecker testified Tuesday that Michael Cohen would call him and say, “We would like for you to run a negative article” on a certain political opponent.

“He would send me information about Ted Cruz or about Ben Carson or Marco Rubio, and that was the basis of our story, and then we would embellish it a little,” he said.

The court was shown examples of the resulting headlines relating to Carson, a surgeon who ran against Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary and later became his secretary of housing.

“Bungling surgeon Ben Carson left sponge in patient’s brain” reads one article relaying allegations from a former patient .

Pecker said he would send Cohen drafts of these stories, to which Cohen would provide feedback. Asked if he knew whether Cohen ever shared those stories with Trump, Pecker said: “I don’t recollect that, no.”

PECKER WANTED TO KEEP 2015 AGREEMENT UNDER WRAPS

David Pecker on Tuesday said that after his August 2015 meeting with Donald Trump, Michael Cohen and Hope Hicks, he wanted to keep the agreement under wraps.

Pecker testified that after that meeting he met with the National Enquirer’s editor at the time, Dylan Howard, and underscored that the agreement he’d just made at Trump Tower was “highly, highly confidential.”

He said he wanted the tabloid’s bureau chiefs to be on the lookout for any stories involving Trump and said he wanted them to verify the stories before alerting Cohen.

“I told him that we are going to try to help the campaign and to do that I want to keep this as quiet as possible,” Pecker testified. “I did not want anyone else to know this agreement I had and what I wanted to do.”

PECKER OFFERED TO BE TRUMP'S ‘EYES AND EARS’

While David Pecker had many personal interactions with Donald Trump over the years, the former National Enquirer publisher said Tuesday that he also worked closely with Michael Cohen, then Trump’s lawyer.

Describing an August 2015 meeting with Trump, Cohen and then-Trump aide Hope Hicks at Trump Tower, Pecker explained how he might be an asset to Trump.

He testified that he could “publish positive stories about Mr. Trump, and I would publish negative stories about his opponents, and I said I would also be the eyes and ears.”

If he heard “anything negative” about Trump, or instances of “women selling stories,” Pecker said he “would notify Michael Cohen.” From there, Pecker said stories could be purchased and “killed,” meaning they would go unpublished.

“Prior to that August 2015 meeting, had you ever purchased a story in order to not print it, about Mr. Trump?” Steinglass, the prosecutor, asked.

“Uh, no,” Pecker said.

TABLOID RAN POLL ABOUT A TRUMP PRESIDENTIAL BID, PECKER SAYS

David Pecker testified Tuesday that amid the height of Trump’s success with “The Apprentice” and “Celebrity Apprentice,” the tabloid ran a reader poll asking if Trump should run for president.

Though reader polls are unscientific, the results nevertheless strongly favored a Trump presidential run — so much so that Trump cited it during a subsequent “Today Show” interview about his aspirations for running for president.

PECKER TESTIFIES ABOUT HIS FRIENDSHIP WITH TRUMP

Former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified on Tuesday that he met Donald Trump in the 1980s at Mar-a-Lago while there as a guest of a client.

Prosecutors in Trump's hush money case asked Pecker to point to Trump in court and to describe an item of his clothing, a standard part of criminal trials. As he acknowledged Trump and his “dark blue suit,” the former president grinned widely at his longtime friend.

When he bought the National Enquirer in 1985, Pecker said one of the first calls he received was from Trump, who said, “You bought a great magazine.”

Pecker testified that his relationship with Trump grew with the success of Trump’s reality TV show, “The Apprentice.” He said Trump would share content with him from the show that he could publish in his magazines free of charge.

“Our relationship started to grow even further” when Trump launched a celebrity version of “The Apprentice,” he said, citing widespread interest in the show and the notable names whom Trump eliminated each week using his catchphrase: “You're fired!”

While Pecker had many personal interactions with Trump over the years, he said that once Trump hired Michael Cohen, he was told to go through the then-attorney.

“If there was any rumors in the marketplace about Mr. Trump and his family, or any negative stories that were coming out, or anything that I heard overall, that I would go through — I would call Michael Cohen directly,” Pecker explained.

TRUMP USES COURT BREAK TO SLAM JUDGE MERCHAN ON SOCIAL MEDIA

Donald Trump used a short break during his hush money trial on Tuesday to slam the judge in the case over the gag order he is currently under.

“HIGHLY CONFLICTED, TO PUT IT MILDLY, JUDGE JUAN MERCHAN, HAS TAKEN AWAY MY CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO FREE SPEECH,” Trump wrote on his social media site during a brief court break. “EVERYBODY IS ALLOWED TO TALK AND LIE ABOUT ME, BUT I AM NOT ALLOWED TO DEFEND MYSELF. THIS IS A KANGAROO COURT.”

Judge Merchan is currently weighing a decision on whether to find Trump in contempt of court and/or to fine him for what prosecutors say is a violation of a gag order barring him from speaking publicly about witnesses in the case. Prosecutors have sought at least $3,000 in fines over almost a dozen online posts that Trump made in recent weeks, including three Truth Social posts.

NO IMMEDIATE DECISION ON POTENTIAL GAG ORDER VIOLATIONS

Judge Juan M. Merchan said Tuesday he would not make an immediate decision on whether Donald Trump violated a gag order barring him from making public statements about witnesses in his hush money case.

Following a hearing held before witness testimony was set to resume, Merchan suggested that instead of begging for forgiveness, Trump should have asked for clarity when considering social posts or reposts that might cross the line.

Trump's lawyers had reiterated their argument that his posts about witnesses such as his former personal lawyer Michael Cohen were merely responses to political speech.

Prosecutors have sought sanctions against the former president, as well as fines of at least $3,000.

Last year, Trump was fined $15,000 for twice violating a gag order imposed at his New York civil fraud trial after he made a disparaging social media post about the judge’s chief law clerk.

In 2022, Trump was held in contempt and fined $110,000 for being slow to respond to a subpoena in the investigation that led to the civil fraud lawsuit.

LAWYER SAYS OTHERS POST TO TRUMP'S TRUTH SOCIAL ACCOUNT

Todd Blanche, Donald Trump’s lawyer, peeled back the curtain on the ex-president’s Truth Social operation during a hearing on whether he recently violated a gag order prohibiting him from publicly attacking witnesses in his hush money case.

According to Blanche, people working with Trump will pick out articles they think his followers would like to see and then repost them to Truth Social under his name.

Blanche had argued that reposting a news article, as in some of the posts at issue, doesn’t violate the gag order put in place by Judge Juan M. Merchan.

When the judge asked for citations to cases to back that supposition up, Blanche said he didn’t have any, but “it’s just common sense.”

As Merchan grew increasingly frustrated with Blanche, prosecutor Joshua Steinglass smiled, rolled his eyes and appeared to stifle a laugh. On the opposite side, Trump sat slumped in his chair, scowling.

Blanche insisted that Trump “is being very careful to comply” with the gag order. Judge Merchan shot back: “You’re losing all credibility.”

Prosecutors have asked the judge to hold Trump in contempt of court and to fine him at least $3,000 for the online posts in question.

TRUMP'S LAWYER SAYS HE DIDN'T WILLFULLY VIOLATE GAG ORDER

Donald Trump's lawyer said in court Tuesday morning that the former president didn't willfully violate a gag order that Judge Juan M. Merchan put in place, barring him from publicly attacking key witnesses in his hush money case.

Fighting proposed fines, Todd Blanche hit a key defense argument on the matter: that Trump was just responding to others’ comments in the course of political speech.

“There is no dispute that President Trump is facing a barrage of political attacks,” including from Cohen and Daniels, Blanche said.

He again argued it’s unfair for those individuals to be unfettered in their comments — but for Trump to be muzzled.

MAN TAKEN INTO CUSTODY BY COURT OFFICERS AFTER CAUSING A DISTURBANCE

A man has been taken into custody by court officers after causing a disturbance in the overflow courtroom for Donald Trump's hush money trial.

The man had been admitted to the overflow courtroom, which is located next to the main courtroom, but officers said he declined to sit down and obey the rules of the court on Tuesday morning. He left the room and officers escorted him off the floor in handcuffs moments after the hearing began.

Court staff have repeatedly warned journalists and members of the public about violating rules in the overflow room, where a video feed of the trial’s proceedings is shown with a slight delay. At least two reporters have been barred from covering the trial after violating rules against recording and taking photographs, according to a court spokesperson.

A court system spokesperson confirmed an arrest but did not immediately provide details.

PROSECUTOR SAYS TRUMP VIOLATED GAG ORDER AGAIN

One of the prosecutors in Donald Trump's hush money case says the former president violated a gag order barring him from publicly attacking witness yet again.

As a hearing began Tuesday about prosecutors' claims that Trump violated the gag order 10 times in recent weeks, Christopher Conroy accused him of violating it again on Monday in remarks outside the courtroom door about his ex-lawyer Michael Cohen.

Conroy pointed to Trump’s comments about Cohen’s representation of him and characterization of Cohen as a liar.

JUDGE TO DECIDE ON WHETHER TRUMP VIOLATED GAG ORDER

Before testimony in Donald Trump's hush money trial resumed Tuesday, Judge Juan M. Merchan held a hearing on the prosecution’s request that Trump be held in contempt of court and fined at least $3,000 for allegedly violating his gag order.

Prosecutors cited 10 posts on Trump’s social media account and campaign website that they said breached the order, which bars him from making public statements about witnesses in the case.

They called the posts a “deliberate flouting” of the court’s order.

In one post, from April 10, Trump described his former lawyer-turned-foe Michael Cohen and porn actor Stormy Daniels as “two sleaze bags who have, with their lies and misrepresentations, cost our Country dearly!”

Prosecutors are seeking a $1,000 fine — the maximum allowed by law — for each of the first three alleged violations. They did not specify the punishment they are seeking for the seven other posts, which date to the morning jury selection began in the trial last week.

COURT BEGINS WITH LAWYERS, JUDGE MEETING FOR SIDE CONFERENCE

Shortly after court resumed Tuesday morning, Donald Trump sat at the defense table alone as his lawyers and prosecutors left the courtroom with Judge Juan M. Merchan for a closed-door conference.

There was no indication as to what the conference was about.

One of the lawyers had asked the judge if they could all approach the bench, to which the judge agreed. A moment later the group walked out of the courtroom to a side room out of view and earshot of reporters.

Before entering the courtroom, Trump had focused on events well outside of the hush money trial.

“It’s a big day in Pennsylvania,” he said in the courthouse’s hallway, urging people to vote in the state’s GOP primary happening today.

Trump, in a red tie, said the pro-Palestinian protests happening at local colleges are “a disgrace. And it’s really on Biden.” He added that President Joe Biden has the wrong tone and the wrong words. “What’s going on is a disgrace to our country and it’s all Biden’s fault.”

TRUMP TO MEET WITH FORMER JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER TARO ASO AFTER COURT

Donald Trump plans to meet with another foreign leader while he’s in New York for his criminal hush money trial.

The presumptive GOP nominee will be meeting with former Japanese prime minister Taro Aso after court Tuesday at Trump Tower. That’s according to two people familiar with the plans who spoke on condition of anonymity because they had not been formally announced.

Several foreign leaders have met with Trump in recent weeks as U.S. allies prepare for the possibility that he could re-take the White House.

“Leaders from around the world know that with President Trump we had a safer, more peaceful world,” said Trump spokesperson Brian Hughes.

Trump was close with Shinzo Abe, the former Japanese prime minister who was assassinated in 2022 .

Associated Press writer Jill Colvin contributed to this report.

WHAT HAPPENS IF TRUMP IS CONVICTED?

Donald Trump faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records — a charge punishable by up to four years in prison — though it’s not clear if the judge would seek to put him behind bars.

A conviction would not preclude Trump from becoming president again, but because it is a state case, he would not be able to pardon himself if found guilty. He has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

OPENING STATEMENTS OFFERED A CLEAR PICTURE OF TRUMP'S DEFENSE

Donald Trump’s attorney used his opening statement to attack the case as baseless, saying the former president did nothing illegal.

The attorney, Todd Blanche, challenged prosecutors’ claim that Trump agreed to pay porn actor Stormy Daniels in order to aid his campaign, saying Trump was trying to “protect his family, his reputation and his brand.”

Blanche indicated the defense will argue that the very point of a presidential campaign is to try to influence an election.

“It’s called democracy,” Blanche told jurors. “They put something sinister on this idea, as if it was a crime. You’ll learn it’s not.”

Blanche also portrayed the ledger entries at issue in the case as pro forma actions performed by a Trump Organization employee. Trump “had nothing to do with” the allegedly false business records, “except that he signed the checks, in the White House, while he was running the country,” Blanche said.

And he argued that the records’ references to legal expenses weren’t false, since Cohen was Trump’s personal lawyer at the time.

‘ELECTION FRAUD’ VS. A ‘BOOKKEEPING CASE’

Donald Trump is charged with 34 counts of falsifying internal Trump Organization business records. But prosecutors made clear they do not want jurors to view this as a routine paper case.

Prosecutor Matthew Colangelo said Monday the heart of the case is a scheme to “corrupt” the 2016 election by silencing people who were about to come forward with embarrassing stories Trump feared would hurt his campaign.

“No politician wants bad press,” Colangelo said. “But the evidence at trial will show that this was not spin or communication strategy. This was a planned, coordinated, long-running conspiracy to influence the 2016 election, to help Donald Trump get elected through illegal expenditures to silence people who had something bad to say about his behavior.”

2 JOURNALISTS EXPELLED FROM TRUMP TRIAL FOR BREAKING RULES ON RECORDING

Two journalists covering Donald Trump's hush money trial were removed and expelled on Monday for breaking rules prohibiting recording and photography in the overflow room, where reporters who can’t get into the main courtroom watch the proceedings on large screens, according to court officials.

One of the banned journalists had previously been warned for violating the rules during jury selection.

Uniformed court officers have been making daily announcements reminding reporters of the rules. Signs posted in the overflow room and around the courthouse make clear that photography and recording are not allowed.

COURT TO END EARLY DUE TO PASSOVER

Donald Trump's hush money trial will adjourn early on Tuesday in observance of Passover. Judge Juan M. Merchan plans to end court proceedings at 2 p.m. for the holiday.

PROSECUTORS MADE HISTORY WITH OPENING STATEMENTS

Prosecutors on Monday made history as they presented their opening statements to a jury in the first criminal trial against a former U.S. president, accusing Donald Trump of a hush money scheme aimed at preventing damaging stories about his personal life from becoming public.

The dueling statements painted very different portraits of the man who, before serving in the White House, was best known for being a major real estate developer and his reality TV show, “The Apprentice.”

One depicted him as someone who sought to illegally corrupt the 2016 presidential election for his own benefit and the other described him as an innocent, everyday man who was being subjected to a case the government “should never have brought.”

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Recipients to get more choices at St. Matthew's House

Pantry adopts national best practice food assistance model.

It has been four years since the start of COVID. When COVID lockdowns put people out of work in April of 2020,  the direct food assistance program at St. Matthew’s House pivoted from a small food pantry visited by families a few times a week to a massive drive-through food distribution system.

We went from serving 300 families a month to serving over 4,000 families in April of 2020 and the numbers kept climbing. Since April 2020, we have distributed over 700,000 boxes of groceries, produce, dairy and proteins with weekly drive-through distributions at various locations. This model also afforded minimal contact during COVID as recipients could simply open their trunk and have groceries loaded by volunteers.

When Hurricane Ian hit in 2022, St. Matthew’s House responded to these extreme circumstances with a massive response. This was made possible with the help of our food bank partners, community food drives, individual donors, the Richard M. Schulze Family Foundation, Community Foundation, church partners and hundreds of volunteers.

St. Matthew’s House food distributions will continue to some of the area’s more distant locations of LaBelle, Immokalee and the Golden Gate Senior Center. Also, in the event of a local emergency, we are prepared to pivot back to drive-through distributions.

However, on May 6, we are transitioning from multi-location food distributions to a National Best Practice model for food pantries endorsed by Feeding America. This Best Practice model is being adopted by food pantries across the country.

Here is why. Instead of offering a box of pre-selected items, qualified recipients will have a choice of what they receive. A recent study funded by the Morgan Stanley Foundation and conducted by Feeding America and University of Chicago included 28 food banks and 111 food pantries. The study overwhelmingly indicates that choice is a better way to run a food pantry because people can shop for the items their household needs and wants.

With this model, qualified Collier County residents can arrive at designated times to choose from a range of fresh meats, fruits and vegetables as well as staples at the St. Matthew’s House Food and Emergency Assistance Warehouse located at 4535 Domestic Avenue, Naples.

Recipients will be qualified using their address, number of people in the household, frequency of their visits, and a maximum dollar value per visit. This model will provide more comprehensive, personalized assistance to better serve individuals and families struggling with food insecurity.

St. Matthew’s House also is expanding services at the Food and Emergency Assistance Warehouse  by adding a Community Services Center to provide assistance with other issues that food pantry clients may be facing.  

St. Matthew’s House case managers as well as representatives from other agencies will be available a few days of the week to offer food assistance clients with additional help with job seeking, financial literacy, nutrition, menu planning and more. Clients also will be able to access a community computer. This type of wrap-around service center eliminates the burden on low-income individuals to travel to multiple locations and sit through lengthy intake for these additional services.

We will continue working with our many wonderful partners and volunteers to keep our 10,000-square-foot warehouse stocked and ready to serve those needing assistance. The public also can help by donating funds and food staples or volunteering.

For 35 years, St. Matthew’s House has been responding to community needs while continually introducing innovative programs and services to better serve the individuals and families who turn to us for help, hope and healing.

Starting May 6, St. Matthew’s House Food and Emergency Assistance Warehouse pantry hours will be Monday through Thursday from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Individuals can pre-qualify at stmatthewshouse.org or by calling 239-774-0500, extension 307.

Steve Brooder is CEO of St. Matthew’s House.