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Is globalization in retreat? Here is what a new study shows

Sebastian franco bedoya.

The debate is raging: Is globalization in retreat or not? If yes, to what extent, and what are the implications for global prosperity and poverty reduction? These aren’t easy questions to answer, largely because there are different definitions of globalization, which give rise to different ways of measuring it. Recent research at the World Bank, based on a new definition, suggests that globalization is alive and well.

But first, some context. For more than 50 years, globalization has been a catalyst for economic development, trade integration, and prosperity building. It has helped lift more than 1 billion people out of poverty. Since the 1990s, it has become a pathway for businesses in emerging economies to enter global value chains and nearly double their share of exports. Breathtaking advances in communications, transportation, and information technology have made it easier and cheaper for countries on opposite sides of the world to transact business, tap into each other’s markets, and share resources, knowhow, and technology. On the other hand, some critics in advanced economies blame globalization for the loss of manufacturing jobs, and others point to it as a source of greenhouse gas emissions.

Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and China-US tensions have led countries and companies to rethink global strategies. But to what extent is globalization actually retreating?  Some studies find little systematic evidence that it is, while others conclude that “trade openness” has recently fallen in some regions, coinciding with a slower pace of trade reforms and posing a threat to growth. This isn’t just an academic exercise. Accurately measuring globalization is necessary to understand the impact of the current challenges on the world economy. Economic policy cannot risk either overestimating deglobalization or underestimating the costs of such a scenario. For this reason, we need a clear definition with precise empirical applications that can guide economic policy.

The trade-to-GDP ratio — which calculates the relative importance of a country’s imports and exports to its economy — is one way to measure “openness” to trade  . This ratio steadily rose until 2008, then suffered a sudden drop in 2009 following the global financial crisis. By 2011 it had recovered, but it lacked the same vigor as before the crisis, suggesting to some that globalization was waning.

Some economists continue to the use trade-to-GDP ratio as a measure of openness, although many others argue that it is an inadequate yardstick and doesn’t necessarily imply that high trade barriers exist. Instead, it could reflect factors such as the size or structure of the economy or its geographic proximity to trading partners.

So globalization is better understood as an extension beyond national borders of the same market forces operating at all levels of economic activity. Using this definition, we measured the intensity of globalization as the growth of international trade relative to domestic trade. For instance, automakers sell some cars in the domestic market and export the rest. Comparing the evolution of the exports of cars with domestic sales offers a better measure of globalization dynamics than the trade-to-GDP ratio.  The model used to capture the relative dynamics of international and domestic trade is what economists call a structural gravity model. It allows for comparisons across countries and over time, capturing more intuitive globalization dynamics than the trade-to-GDP ratio. Among other factors, the reduction in trade barriers and advances in information technology make international trade grow faster than domestic trade, with the world becoming more globalized and with greater economic connectivity and cooperation among countries.

Based on this research, there is no evidence that the world economy has entered an era of deglobalization.  China’s trade-to-GDP ratio, for example, has trended downward since 2006 and is now below both the world average and the level in 2001, when China entered the World Trade Organization. Yet even considering recent trade tensions with the United States, it would be difficult to argue that the Chinese economy is drastically less “open,” as the trade-to-GDP ratio would suggest. A better explanation is that trade has become less important to China’s GDP as its domestic economy has boomed.

A globalization analysis consistent with economic theory requires the study of sector-specific dynamics. For instance, manufacturing has traditionally been a more trade-intensive sector, but information and communication technology (ICT) advances seem to be making services more tradable, pointing to more globalization opportunities in the future. Figure 1 plots the main results of our research. It shows that globalization dynamics in manufacturing were already strong in 1965, while agriculture and services “took off” in the late 1970s and 1990s, respectively. There is no sign of a deglobalization trend post-2008.

Figure 1. Globalization took off at various times, depending on the sector and country.

Figure 1 (b) investigates manufacturing dynamics across countries. These results uncover differing dynamics, situating China as a globalization leader starting in the 1980s, outperforming the world economy significantly during the entire period. This story is different from the one told by the trade-to-GDP ratio. Other results also offer deep insights by illustrating how countries like India, while lagging in manufacturing globalization, have outperformed the world economy in services.

The debate on globalization uses various terms --  slowbalization, deglobalization, reglobalization. Each tells a very different story about changes in the world economy. Our research contributes to these debates by offering a globalization toolkit to understand where the world economy stands today  and helping us to prepare for future dynamics.

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This research program focuses on understanding the role of the financial and private sectors in promoting economic development, and reducing poverty and identifying policies to improve their effectiveness.  Learn more ›  

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This research program studies the determinants of macroeconomic outcomes (especially growth), how those outcomes are linked to institutions and resource allocation at the micro level, and the role of governments in raising and allocating resources.  Learn more ›  

This research program aims to improve current data and methods of poverty and inequality analysis, and use it to better understand the effectiveness of specific policies to reduce poverty and inequality.  Learn more ›  

Lasting poverty reduction requires sustainable natural resource management as well as infrastructure development. This research program encompasses energy, environment, land, agriculture, water, climate change, biodiversity, and urbanization.  Learn more ›  

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Human development is at the core of the World Bank’s strategy to improve people’s lives and support sustainable development. This research program spans education, health, social protection, and labor.

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Strengthening Health Systems:

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Education and Skills: 

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• Addressing violent behaviors and promoting the wellbeing of school-aged chilren
• School-to-work transition, including apprenticehips and the role of aspirations

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• Pension design and reforms, elder care

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This research program studies the determinants of macroeconomic outcomes (especially growth), how those outcomes are linked to institutions and resource allocation at the micro level, and the role of governments in raising and allocating resources.

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Middle-income Growth Challenges:

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• Assess how norms, neighborhoods, and networks affect education, labor markets, talent allocation, and growth

Global Tax Lab:

• Identify and capture the highest-value opportunities for domestic resource mobilization
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• Impact water policy dialogue to address the economics necessary for implementing engineering solutions
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Sectoral Development and Competitiveness Strategy:

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• Use revealed comparative advantage measured in export data to target most productive sectors
• Develop web tool (component of "EFI360") to identify sector-specific opportunities in TCD 2.0 and CPSD 2.0

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• Identify which firms and countries have increased capital market financing, with aggregate consequences
• Quantify increased role of domestic markets in private resource mobilization, investment, and growth 
• Flagship report, plus market benchmarking tool and (possibly) estimates of borrowing costs across countries

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This research program aims to improve current data and methods of poverty and inequality analysis, and use it to better understand the effectiveness of specific policies to reduce poverty and inequality.

• What are the next generation “bread and butter” poverty and inequality measures?
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Next Generation Poverty and Inequality Measures:

• Developing “prosperity gap” as a new measure of “shared prosperity”
• Improving multidimensional poverty measurement (aggregating different measures of wellbeing; combining absolute and relative income poverty)
• Small area estimation and imputation of poverty and inequality when data are scant
• Innovations in alternative measurement of wellbeing: narrative text as data, applicability of biometric measures

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Welfare Impacts of Interventions at Critical Points in the Life Cycle:

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Building Leadership Skills among Civil Servants:

• Proof of concept implementation to transition Cambodia’s public administrators from “royal officers” (the literal translation of ‘public administrators’ in Khmer) into problem-solving civil servants (delivered to all 800 of Cambodia’s top-level career civil servants, across five cohorts)

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Sustainability and Infrastructure

Lasting poverty reduction requires sustainable natural resource management as well as infrastructure development. This research program encompasses energy, environment, land, agriculture, water, climate change, biodiversity, and urbanization.

• What are effective policies and instruments for expanding energy access and decarbonizing development?
• What is the burden of climate change and air pollution in developing countries?
• What are the best ways to build resilience?
• How can land title and property registry reform improve development?
• What transportation infrastructure has the greatest impact on mobility, connectivity, and markets?
• How can we best value, protect, and benefit from natural resource wealth?

Climate Change and Air Pollution Implications for Poverty, Growth, and Inequality:

• Air pollution drag on productivity and growth in South Asia
• Distributional impacts of anthropogenic air pollution in developing countries
• Weather shocks in early childhood affect human capital formation in Ethiopia
• Impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on yield for major crops in Ukraine

Clean Energy, Access, and Growth:

• Improving the credibility of impact evaluation for public investments in energy access
• Customizing energy sector and macroeconomic models to evaluate renewable energy investments and decarbonized growth pathways

Carbon Pricing and Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms:

• Framework for measuring total carbon pricing to better track trends in carbon cost alignment in energy prices
• Assessing the efficacy and distributional implications of carbon pricing policies and energy price reforms
• Understanding developing country exposure to carbon border adjustment measures and global climate policies
• Unintended consequences of fuel subsidies on water and fisheries resources

Improving Resilience:

• Research and engagement on investments, technologies, and market reforms to equip farmers, households, and markets to improve productivity and adapt to shocks and to a changing climate
• Mobilizing spatial data to identify targeted interventions to reduce vulnerability to natural disasters, mitigate exposure to pollution, improve urbanization, and harness nature-based solutions

Urban Transportation Infrastructure:

• Value of bridges in Bangladesh
• Cape Town transportation and urban development simulation tool
• Electrification and road provision complementarities in Brazil

Sustainable Land Use:

• Land titling and institutional reforms for property markets
• Improving collection of land and property taxes
• Private management of public parks

Visit the Sustainability and Infrastructure Team website ›  |  Back to the top

Trade and International Integration

This research program seeks to better understand the role of international trade in goods and services, foreign direct investment, and migration in economic development.

• What are the drivers of trade, foreign direct investment, and migration?
• How does international integration shape development and environmental outcomes in countries at different income levels?
• How do shocks such as climate change, conflict, and geopolitical fragmentation impact globalization and development?
• How can national, regional, and multilateral policies promote sustainable development?

Importer and Exporter Dynamics:

• Identify determinants of export success
• Help enact policies promoting competitiveness in export and import markets

Firm Upgrading:

• Identify the drivers of innovation and technology adoption
• Evolving shape of global production networks
• Assess how these impact development outcomes

Distributional Impacts of Globalization and Protectionism:

• Welfare consequences of trade and productivity shocks (e.g. climate change)
• Assess how these vary across space, the income distribution, and industries

Illicit Financial Flows:

• Help customs agencies detect customs fraud
• Identify and assess the effectiveness of remedial measures
• Identify key migration corridors
• Assess which policies best promote migrant and refugee integration

Visit the Trade and International Integration website ›  |  Back to the top

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Extreme Poverty

The proportion of the world’s population living in extreme poverty has dropped significantly

In 2021, over 3.1 billion people could not afford a healthy diet, up by 134 million from pre-pandemic 2019.

Jun 26, 2023

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The World Bank-hosted Global Data Facility is an innovative global funding instrument for the world's most critical data impact opportunities.

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Supports countries in conducting multi-topic household surveys to generate high-quality data, improve survey methods and build capacity.

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Gold rallies, stocks ease as rate cut optimism fades

Gold prices hit fresh all-time peaks on Monday but stocks on Wall Street eased from near-record highs, with optimism that the Federal Reserve was close to cutting interest rates fading as a strong U.S. economy negates the necessity of cuts anytime soon.

Canadian firms have begun to expect improved conditions after almost two years of deterioration, the Bank of Canada (BoC) said on Monday, prompting traders to trim their bets on a rate cut in June.

World Bank Cuts Thai GDP Growth Outlook to 2.8% This Year

Bangkok's skyline is photographed during sunset in Bangkok, Thailand, July 3, 2023. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economic growth is expected at 2.8% this year before accelerating to 3.0% in 2025, the World Bank said on Monday.

The growth outlook for 2024 and 2025 was reduced from 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, as forecast in December. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy expanded 1.9% in 2023.

(Reporting by Satawasin Staporncharnchai and Chayut Setboonsarng, Edited by Kanupriya Kapoor)

Copyright 2024 Thomson Reuters .

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Higher temperatures mean higher food and other prices. A new study links climate shocks to inflation

FILE - Shoppers buy food in a supermarket in London, on Aug. 17, 2022. Food prices and overall inflation will rise as temperatures climb with climate change, a new study by an environmental scientist and the European Central Bank found. (AP Photo/Frank Augstein, File)

FILE - A woman shelters from the sun with an umbrella along the Seine River, as Europe is under an extreme heat wave, in Paris, France, Aug. 2, 2022. Food prices and overall inflation will rise as temperatures climb with climate change, a new study by an environmental scientist and the European Central Bank found. (AP Photo/Francois Mori, File)

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Food prices and overall inflation will rise as temperatures climb with climate change , a new study by an environmental scientist and the European Central Bank found.

Looking at monthly price tags of food and other goods, temperatures and other climate factors in 121 nations since 1996, researchers calculate that “weather and climate shocks” will cause the cost of food to rise 1.5 to 1.8 percentage points annually within a decade or so, even higher in already hot places like the Middle East, according to a study in Thursday’s journal Communications, Earth and the Environment .

And that translates to an increase in overall inflation of 0.8 to 0.9 percentage points by 2035, just caused by climate change extreme weather, the study said.

Those numbers may look small, but to banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve that fight inflation, they are significant, said study lead author Max Kotz, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany

“The physical impacts of climate change are going to have a persistent effect on inflation,” Kotz said. “This is really from my perspective another example of one of the ways in which climate change can undermine human welfare, economic welfare.”

And by 2060, the climate-triggered part of inflation should grow, with global food prices predicted to increase 2.2 to 4.3 percentage points annually, the study said. That translates to a 1.1 to 2.2 percentage point increase in overall inflation.

Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia University’s business school who wasn’t part of the research, said what he calls “climateflation” is “all too real and the numbers are rather striking.”

Kotz and European Bank economists looked at 20,000 data points to find a real world causal link between extreme weather, especially heat, and rising prices. They then looked at what’s projected in the future for climate change and saw sticker shock.

Usually when economists talk inflation and climate change, it’s about rising energy prices in response to efforts to curb warming, but that’s only part of the problem, Kotz said.

“There are these productivity shocks that we know about from climate change, from the weather phenomena caused by climate change, from heat waves and so forth to reduce agricultural productivity,” Kotz said. “Those also then have a knock-on effect on food inflation, on headline inflation.”

The study points to 2022’s European heat wave as a good example. The high heat cut food supplies, causing food prices to rise two-thirds of a percentage point and overall inflation to jump about one-third of a percentage point, Kotz said. Prices rose even higher in Romania, Hungary and parts of southern Europe.

“I find the main result on the historic relationship between regional temperature anomalies and national inflation to be credible,” said Frances Moore, an environmental economist at the University of California, Davis who wasn’t part of the study. “The findings are important. Price variability in essential goods like food is very painful to consumers.”

Kotz said the analysis found the inflationary pressure on food and other prices is worse in areas and seasons that are hotter. So Europe and North America may not be hit as hard as the Global South, which could afford it less, he said.

Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears

The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org .

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