phd in electric vehicles in india

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Indian Institute of Technology Delhi

An institution of eminence, भारतीय प्रौद्योगिकी संस्थान दिल्ली, hauz khas, new delhi-110016, india, publish date: june 10, 2021, iit delhi launches a new pg programme m. tech. in electric mobility.

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New Delhi: IIT Delhi will start a new Post Graduate programme ‘M. Tech in Electric Mobility’ from academic session i.e. 2021-22. The programme will be offered by the Centre for Automotive Research and Tribology (CART) at IIT Delhi.

The IIT Delhi Board has recently given its approval to start the new M.Tech. programme.

Candidates with 4-years Bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering, Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Industrial Engineering, Production Engineering, Mechatronics, Automobile, Manufacturing Science/Engineering, and GATE qualified in either Electrical Engineering (EE) or Mechanical Engineering (ME) or Production and Industrial Engineering (PI) disciplines will be eligible to apply for the two-year Master’s degree programme in Electric Mobility to be offered by IIT Delhi.

Also, sponsored candidates from various industries/ academia/ government organizations will be encouraged to apply.

The new M.Tech. programme in “Electric Mobility” is multidisciplinary in nature and will cover key aspects related to electric vehicles, drivetrain, chargers and charging infrastructure, battery energy storage systems, Battery Management System, reusability of energy storage elements, reliability, automotive health monitoring, Automotive NVH (Noise, Vibration, and Harshness), vehicle dynamics, autonomous and connected vehicles, vehicular telematics, and materials for electric vehicle, along with hands on practice and design in laboratories.

Depending on the expertise developed during the M.Tech. studies, the students may get job opportunities in various industries pertaining to Electric Vehicle OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturer), Automotive industry, Battery (pack and module) manufacturing units; BMS industry (Smart and Cloud based BMS); E-motor design and manufacturing industry; Converter and Inverter industry; and EV chargers industry.

Speaking of the new programme, Prof B K Panigrahi, Head, CART said, “The new PG program has been designed with active participation of leading professionals from academia and industry. Moreover, CART is already actively engaged and working with many industries on forefront projects in EVs. The students will get the opportunity to work with state-of-art laboratory facility and will also be exposed to work on various simulation software and HIL platforms.”

The Centre for Automotive Research and Tribology (CART) at IIT Delhi focuses on conducting high end research and development in the area of battery-operated electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, storage and alternate energy sources, autonomous and connected vehicles.

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Welcome to CART

The Centre for Automotive Research and Tribology (CART) was established in May 2019 with a vision to promote interdisciplinary research in the area of Electric Vehicle (EV), energy storage and other relevant areas. The centre envisages strong networking and collaboration among various academia, industries, edge search labs in India and abroad to carry out cutting research things.

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Date of application: july 21, 2020 (10:00 am) - august 10, 2020 (05:00 pm)., ms (by research) in e-mobility.

Jointly offered by the Departments of Electronics and Electrical Engineering (EEE) and Mechanical Engineering (ME), IIT Guwahati

about the course

This unique program is one of the first in the country and aims to address the growing need for skills in EV technology. The syllabus of the program is developed after extensive discussions with leading automotive OEM and Tier-I suppliers.

The unique feature of the program is that it has an extensive laboratory component to ensure that the students get a hands-on feel of the EV technology. Moreover, during the duration of the program, frequent interaction of the students with the industry experts will be arranged. This will enable the students to understand the dynamics and the development of technology happening in the automobile industry.

• Goals and carreer prospects
• Why this program?

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The electrification of the automobile can be a significant step towards avoiding the consequences of climate change and at the same time, a significant step towards the future competitiveness of our automotive industry. The new study program is designed to address these future topics and help to meet the growing need for engineers. Graduates will be able to use scientific methods and analyses for solving complex problems in both practice and research. The Master’s program offers several optional modules in the fields e-mobility. In addition to compulsory modules based on mathematical and technical principles as well as interdisciplinary qualifications, application-specific expertise is conveyed in elective modules on different topics.

The amalgamation of students joining using regular category as well as industry-sponsored way will help to improve the qulaity of knowledge transfer

The exchange of knowledge from two different domains during the study of courses and projects will help promote knowledge exchange and articulate concepts leading the students to gain clear perspective about e-mobility.

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Industry demand.

Positions with expertise in EVs and related field are running vacant due to lack of professiosnals with required knowledge.

Burning field of research

With the push of nations round the world for e-mobility, there is subtantial increase in number of research projects running in universities related to EVs and it's infrastrucure.

Interdisciplinary

The curriculum of the course involved departments of two different domain viz. Electronics and Electrical and Mechanical Engineering. Such collaborations are rare but worth!

Unique of it's kind

The curriculum is designed in consultation as well as consent from both government and private bodies such as NITI Aayog, Ashok Leyland, Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd., Kyoto, Japan, and Tata Motors. It is rare to see a curriculum designed as per requirements of both government and private bodies.

testimonials

Karthick athmanathan, head, ev & emobility business, ashok leyland limited.

A Master’s level program on Electric Vehicles from premier institutes like IITs is long due. IIT-Guwahati is very well placed to offer this program considering the very hands-on and industry-relevant work the Electric Mobility Lab there has been doing over the years. We have been interacting with this team for the past few years, and their exposure to industry problems and India-specific issues is exceptional. The program, especially the hands-on laboratory part is well-conceived. Our team here in AL has worked closely with the IITG team, and we are happy to have been part of this effort and offering. While the course work will provide the basic introduction to Electric Mobility, given the vast areas to specialize in, the three-semester project is expected to provide a solid grounding in the chosen speciality.

Dr. Seshu Bhagavathula, President, New Technologies and Business Initiatives, Ashok Leyland Limited

The course is conceptualized with a lot of practical content which I think is the most important aspect of this initiative, so the industry will find it easier to employ these students coming out of IIT-G. The balance between theory, concepts and hands-on experience is another very important aspect of the program. The content has a broad coverage of all the aspects of e-Mobility (technology, business issues, financial aspects, etc.,) so, once finished, the students are ready to either enter the industry life or can even purse advanced research! With the content being most contemporary and relevant to today’s needs, this document compares very well with similar courses being conducted elsewhere – this is on par with the best!

Dr. Karun Malhotra, Murata

After missing the electronics and semi-conductor revolution of the 20th century, India now has a great opportunity to make its mark in the field of power electronics. Everyone in India is now familiar with Electric Vehicles, E-mobility, Solar panels, inverters, etc. but only a few realize that the foundation of all these products is “Power Electronics”. On the other hand, my own experience has shown that technology in itself is not sufficient to create and run a successful business. For that one needs to understand and control the value chain and have a robust business model. With its new syllabus, IITG is tackling the two most important topics: (a) The 360 degree perspective of the e-mobility eco-system and (b) the technology that powers it. I have great hopes from this program and look forward to the day when India will also have its own world-class champion company in power electronics.

Eligibility

Regular candidates.

• The regular candidates will be selected based on GATE score.
• Candidates with B.Tech in EE, EEE, ME, PE or Automobile Engineering will be selected.
• The candidates with B. Tech in EE or EEE should have a valid GATE score in EE.
• The candidates with B. Tech in ME, PE, or Automobile Engg should have a valid GATE score in ME or PE.

Industry-sponsored Candidates

• The industry-sponsored candidates should have a B. Tech in either EE, EEE, ME, PE, Automobile Engg and must have scored at least 60% or equivalent CPI.
• The selection of industry-sponsored candidates will be based on a written test and/or interview.
• The industry-sponsored candidate is one who is either employed in a company registered at MCA.
• GATE qualification is not a pre-requisite for the industry-sponsored candidates.
• The candidate must be employed and should have at least two years of work experience.
• Upon completion of the course work, the industry-sponsored candidates can execute the project in their parent company.
• These candidates can have one project supervisor from the industry with relevant experience.
• The proposed fees for the industry-sponsored candidates is Rs.5 lacs/semester.

Steps to be followed for application:

• Check the eligibility criteria defined in the last section.
• Follow-up the developments at IIT Guwahati Admission July 2020 portal.

Interdisciplinary MS by Research Programme Committee (IMPC)

Prof. Roy P. Paily

Hod, eee department, programme chairman.

Prof. K. S. R. Krishna Murthy

Hod, me department, programme vice-chairman.

Prof. Praveen Kumar

Professor, eee department, programme coordinator, eee department.

Prof. Karuna Kalita

Professor, me department, programme co-coordinator, me department.

Dr. Sanjib Ganguly

Associate professor, eee department.

Dr. Sandeep Reddy Basireddy

Assistant professor, me department, laboratory facilities.

Some of the laboratories associated with the MS programme are

Electric Mobility Laboratory

Department of eee, cad laboratory, department of me, mechatronics and robotics laboratory, activities related to the ms programme will be updated shortly.

For any query related to admission and the MS programme, please contact

Programme Coordinator

praveen_kumar [At] iitg.ac.in

Department of Electronics & Electrical Engineering

Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati Guwahati – 781039, India Phone: +91-361-2582550 Fax: +91-361-2690762 Email: eeeoff[At]iitg.ac.in

Programme Co-coordinator

karuna.kalita [At] iitg.ac.in

Department of Mechnical Engineering

Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati Guwahati – 781039, India Phone: +91-361-2583000 Fax: +91-361-2690762 Email: mechoff[At]iitg.ac.in

Reaching IIT Guwahati

IIT Guwahati is about 23 K.M. from the main Guwahati railway station. Though there is a local Amingaon station also nearby, but most of the important trains connecting Guwahati with rest of India do not stop here presently. The Institute is located in northern part of the city. Local transport comprises of city bus service, cabs (ola, uber, prepaid) and auto-rickshaws.

Bus Services by IIT Guwahati

From: Guwahati City (near RBI, opposite to the way road to Guwahati railway station) to IIT Guwahati Campus Timing on Working days: 6:45 am, 8:15 am, 10:00 am, 12:00 am, 1 pm, 2 pm, 3 pm, 4 pm, 5:15 pm,6:45 pm, 8:15 pm, 8:45 pm Timing on Saturdays and Sundays: 6:45 am, 8:15 am, 10:00 am, 12:00 pm, 1 pm, 2 pm, 3 pm, 4 pm, 5:15pm, 6:45 pm, 8:15 pm, 8:45 pm

Fundamentals of Electric vehicles: Technology & Economics

A systems course to understand the fundamentals of Electric Vehicles (EVs), especially in Indian Context. The course will examine technology associated with each element of EV drive-train; at the same time, it will get into economics of EVs in India vis-à-vis petrol vehicles.

Note: This exam date is subjected to change based on seat availability. You can check final exam date on your hall ticket.

Page Visits

Course layout, books and references.

Electric Powertrain - Energy Systems, Power electronics and drives for Hybrid, electric and fuel cell vehicles by John G. Hayes and A. Goodarzi, Wiley Publication

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Prof. Ashok Jhunjhunwala, Prof. Kaushal Jha, Prof. L Kannan, Prof. Prabhjot Kaur

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How are India's IITs faring in Autonomous Vehicles research?

Self-driving technology is being researched extensively by students, professors and AI experts at India's foremost labs hosted at the IITs. Here's the latest update.

The Indian Institutes of Technology are the most premium science and technology centres in the country. Home to some of the brightest technical minds in India and the world, the various IITs have earned the reputation of undertaking pioneering research and breakthrough in various tech domains, including Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Self-driving technology, being the most intriguing area for AI experts, is being researched extensively by students, professors and researchers at India's foremost labs hosted at the IITs. Here's the latest update.

• IIT Bombay:   Unmesh Mashruwala Innovation Cell (UMIC) is a tech team formed to embrace and develop the idea of an autonomous future. The team consists of 40+ dedicated students from various fields of study from IIT-B. The primary area of focus in UMIC is developing autonomous vehicles. The innovation cell is sponsored by the likes of NVIDIA, Reliance Industries Ltd, RoboteQ, Continental, Sparton, Texas Instruments and Maxon Motor. Team AeRoVe is aiming for the skies and is on a continuous pursuit of advancing autonomous multi-copters and fixed-wing systems for search and rescue operations. Likewise, Team SeDriCa has its feet on the ground and is developing an autonomous car for the Indian roads.
• IIT Kharagpur:  Team AGV is a multi-disciplinary research group aimed at building a fully operational self-driving car. As a Research Group under the mentorship of Faculty Advisor Prof Debashish Chakraborty, the group also engage in research work related to autonomous and mobile robots involving Deep-Learning and Reinforcement agents. The team consists of 50 motivated undergraduate students from various disciplines of Engineering including Electrical, Electronics, Mechanical Engineering and Computer Science. IIT Kgp has developed their own series of Autonomous Cars called ‘Eklavya’. Alongside, they are also developing Auro 666 and a 3D mapping API.
• IIT Kanpur:  As a joint activity of IIT Kanpur and Boeing Corporation, an autonomous vehicle called Abhyast is being built. The objective is to develop a robot which acts as an aid to the operator in carrying specific task rather than an entity which is in need of continuous attention of operator. The task of the vehicle is to localize itself (its position in terms of the coordinates) on the given terrain and navigate to the destination place by avoiding obstacles. The vehicle is planned to establish its connection with the operator via pre-existing GSM network, hence its application is not restricted to the range of any user established wireless networks. 
• IIT-Hyderabad:  With support from the Department of Science and Technology under the National Mission on Interdisciplinary Cyber-Physical Systems (NM-ICPS), IIT-Hyderabad has set up Technology Innovation Hub on Autonomous Navigation and Data Acquisition Systems (TiHAN). It is India’s first Testbed for Autonomous Navigation Systems (Terrestrial and Aerial). For this the Department of Science and Technology (DST) has sanctioned Rs 135 crore to IIT-Hyderabad. Also known as TiHAN Foundation, it is a multi-departmental initiative, including researchers from electrical, computer science, mechanical and aerospace, civil, mathematics and Design with collaboration and support from reputed institutions and industry. 
• IIT-Delhi:  Centre for Automotive Research and Tribology (CART) was established in May 2019 with a vision to promote interdisciplinary research in the area of Electric Vehicle (EV), energy storage and other relevant areas. MG Motor has teamed with IIT Delhi’s CART for research in the field of electric and autonomous vehicles. Through this IIT Delhi will support MG’s focus on CASE mobility (Connected – Autonomous – Shared – Electric); through enabling supporting research for the deployment of electric and autonomous vehicles in the urban landscape in India.
• Written with inputs from Nibedita Saha

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Predicting Electric Vehicle (EV) Buyers in India: A Machine Learning Approach

• Published: 18 May 2022
• Volume 16 , pages 221–238, ( 2022 )

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• Sushil Kumar Dixit   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4228-9821 1 &
• Ashirwad Kumar Singh   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-0349-7038 2  

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Electric mobility has been around for a long time. In recent years, with advancements in technology, electric vehicles (EVs) have shown a new potential to meet many of the challenges being faced by humanity. These challenges include increasing dependence on fossil fuels, environmental concerns, challenges posed by rapid urbanization, urban mobility, and employment. However, the adoption of electric vehicles has remained challenging despite consumers having a positive attitude toward EVs and big policy pushes by governments in many countries. Marketers from the electric vehicle (EV) industry are finding it difficult to identify genuine buyers for their products. In this context, the present study attempts to develop a machine learning model to predict whether a person would “Buy” or “Won’t Buy” an electric vehicle in India. To develop the model, an exploration of EV context was done first by conducting a text analysis of online content relating to electric vehicles. The objective was to find frequently occurring words to gain a meaningful understanding of the consumer’s interests and concerns relating to electric vehicles. The machine learning model indicates that age, gender, income, level of environmental concerns, vehicle cost, running cost, vehicle performance, driving range, and mass behavior are significant predictors of electrical vehicle purchase in India. The level of education, employment, and government subsidy are not significant predictors of EV uptake.

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1 Introduction

In business and economics literature, the term “industry” has been defined in varied context with different meanings for different purposes. Researchers and policy makers define industries depending on their objectives [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 ]. In general, “industry” refers to a set of business activities that is slightly domain specific. With this view, the authors define “electric vehicles industry” as a subset of automobile industry, including all businesses involved in the manufacture, trade, and service of all types of vehicles powered by electrical energy, and associated and ancillary businesses. Electric vehicles are considered one of the most important means by which some of the serious challenges being faced by modern societies are met, e.g., energy security, environmental deterioration, and urban mobility.

All industries evolve in time and space. New industries emerge and old ones vanish with changes in technology or consumer preferences. For the last few years, the electric vehicle industry has evolved in differing contexts. In case of electric vehicles (EVs), the government plays a significant role in shaping not only the perception, but also adoption of EVs by the masses. Governments across the world are coming up with electric vehicle policy, focusing on reducing dependence on fossil fuels, meeting environmental concerns and challenges posed by rapid urbanization, enhancing employment, among others. Governments in many countries have facilitated the adoption of EVs by policy interventions such as supporting research and development, infrastructure development, and financial incentives to industry and consumers.

Over the last few years, the Indian government has started focusing on electric vehicles [ 5 , 6 ]. Recently, the Indian government declared that it aims to have EV sales account for 30% of private cars, 70% of commercial vehicles, and 80% of two and three wheelers by 2030 as there is an immediate need to de-carbonize the transport sector [ 7 ]. The central and state governments have both initiated policy measures to promote manufacture and adoption of EVs. To date, 15 state governments have announced EV policy for their states. Key components of the Indian government’s EV policy are making electric vehicles economically viable, developing charging/swapping infrastructure, technology advancement, and focusing on small and public vehicles to make an early impact. The EVs are also seen to contribute to economic development and employment in India. Many automobile manufacturers have recently launched EV models in two-wheeler and four-wheeler segments.

At the time of conducting this study, the Indian automobile industry was undergoing a severe slowdown, affecting overall consumer perception and sentiments. Retail prices of automobile fuel were at an all-time high, and economically, India’s GDP growth rate had slowed down. Steps like demonetization and Goods and Services Tax (GST) implementation has also negatively affected many small- and medium-size industries. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been continuously reducing the policy rate, and the COVID-19 pandemic has also impacted all industries across the word, including the automobile industry.

The EV industry is moving at a fast pace in most of the countries, not only in terms of evolution of technology, but also in terms of government policy and consumer expectations. Studies conducted in the EV domain in the past will become less relevant soon due to the fast-evolving nature of the industry. Many studies have been conducted in the past on the Indian automobile industry or its traditional segments, but the literature on the EV industry in India is limited and fragmented. Most of the earlier studies attempted to understand consumer sentiments toward electrical vehicles in western developed countries and China. Few studies focusing on understanding electric vehicle uptake were also conducted in the context of developed nations. In the past, only a few studies were conducted explaining consumer understanding and expectations toward EVs in the Indian context [ 8 , 9 ]. A study focusing on consumer concerns for electric vehicles and understanding the factors affecting electric vehicle uptake was missing in the Indian context. Indian policy makers and industry professionals lacked much needed insight into the EV domain. The present study aims to bridge this glaring gap in the literature. The study will help government policymakers and business professionals to understand Indian consumers’ concerns, which will help them design better policies and strategies to give a big boost to EV adoption by Indian consumers.

This research paper is divided into two sections. Section 1 focuses on text analysis of Indian consumers’ posts on social media platforms to understand the user concerns toward electric vehicles. The text analysis of social media posts along with the review of existing literature provides insights into the context of the Indian electric vehicle industry, as well as the possible factors affecting EV uptake in India. Section 2 presents a machine learning model to predict who will buy an electric vehicle in India. It considers demographic, social, contextual, level of environmental awareness, and other relevant considerations of Indian consumers to develop a machine learning classification model that could predict whether a person would “Buy” or “Won’t Buy” an electric vehicle.

1.1 Objectives of Research

The two specific objectives of this study are:

Understanding Indian consumers’ concerns with electrical vehicles.

Developing a Predictive Machine Learning Model that can classify whether an Indian consumer will “Buy” or “Won’t Buy” an electric vehicle.

1.2 Literature Review

As previously mentioned, most of the existing studies examining consumer sentiments and factors relating to electrical vehicles have been conducted in either western or Chinese context. Shepherd et al. [ 10 ] developed a system dynamics model using factors such as subsidies, vehicle driving range, and availability of charging points, and concluded that subsidies have little impact, except in conditional marketing scenarios. Coffman et al. [ 11 ] concluded that despite significant performance improvements, most governments’ goals for EV uptake could not be met. Mixed evidence was found for the role of government incentives in EV uptake; however, public charging infrastructure availability was found to have a significant impact. The authors also noted the presence of an “attitude–action” gap, indicating a significant gap between having a positive attitude toward electric vehicles and actually buying one. In their study, Christidis and Focas [ 12 ] identified that income, educational attainment, and urbanization level had a significant impact on EV uptake in the European Union (EU). The study also found that the local conditions and regional variations have a major, if not deciding, effect on EV purchase. Kim et al. [ 13 ] in their study of 31 countries found that the share of electric vehicles in different markets was correlated with their relative price as compared to internal combustion engine vehicle, number of models available, and vehicle driving range. However, they observed that the relationship between electric vehicle market share and availability of charging infrastructure was insignificant. While studying electric vehicle adoption in the USA, Soltani-Sobh et al. [ 14 ] found that electricity price, use of urban roads, and government incentives play a significant role in EV adoption.

Wang et al. [ 15 ] studied factors affecting public acceptance of electric vehicles in Shanghai, China, and concluded that the level of available technology, marketing efforts, perceived risks, and the level of environmental awareness have significant effects on electric vehicle acceptance. In their study in Thailand, Thananusak et al. [ 16 ] found that performance factors like driving range, speed, and safety were more important than the availability of charging infrastructure, financial considerations like purchase and resale price, and operating and maintenance costs. One important finding was that an individual’s environmental concerns affect their decision to purchase electric vehicles, and they were also willing to pay a higher price premium for electric vehicles due to their positive impact on the environment. However, the price premium factor was found to have a negative moderating effect on the relationship between their intention to buy an electric vehicle and environmental concern. Tu and Yang [ 17 ] in their study on Taiwanese consumers found that resource availability and opinions from consumers surroundings, along with their environmental awareness, influence consumer EV purchase intentions. Li et al. [ 18 ] in their systematic study of 1846 papers to understand the factors affecting EV purchase found that all factors can be categorized into demographic, situational, and psychological factors. In their study on electric vehicle usage, Sang and Bekhet [ 19 ] found that for Malaysian consumers, the electric vehicle acceptance was significantly related to demographics, financial benefits, performance attributes, environmental concerns, social influences, infrastructure availability, and government interventions.

Kim et al. [ 20 ] in their study in Korea examining consumer intentions for purchasing an electric vehicle found that prior experience in driving electric vehicles, along with factors like number of vehicles in the household, educational achievement, availability of parking, and perception of government incentives significantly affect consumers’ intentions for purchasing electric vehicles. Sierzchula et al. [ 21 ] in their study in 30 countries found that the electric vehicle market share in different countries was positively correlated with financial incentives, availability of charging infrastructure, and local production. It was further observed that availability of charging infrastructure had the strongest correlation with electric vehicle adoption. Verma et al. [ 9 ] in their study on identifying factors affecting electric vehicle adoption in Bangalore, India, noted that the key motivators in electric vehicle adoption were perceived environmental benefits and financial incentives. Kumar et al. [ 8 ] studied challenges to the adoption of electric vehicles and concluded that sharing economy and public utilities will play a critical role in EV purchase, considering the high cost coupled with consumers’ low purchasing power and lack of availability of charging infrastructure in India. The study also recognized the role of government in terms of interventions at different levels to meaningfully enhance EV adoption in India. A 2020 study by Castrol in India noted that consumers generally have a positive attitude toward electric vehicles and estimated the Indian EV market would reach $2 billion by 2025. The study identified vehicle price, charging time, and driving range as the most important challenges in EV adoption in India. The average price point of $3100, charging time of 35 min, and vehicle driving range of 401 KM were identified as the tipping points to achieve mainstream EV adoption in India [ 22 ]. Higueras-Castillo et al. [ 23 ] in their study to find factors that affect electric vehicle purchase intentions in Spain conclude that driving range, financial incentives, and vehicle reliability are the most important predictors of the purchase intention. Bennett and Vijaygopal [ 24 ] found that a weak link exists between attitude and willingness to purchase an electric vehicle. Lin and Wu [ 25 ] examined the reasons for electric vehicle purchase by Chinese consumers and concluded that demographic characteristics such as gender, age, and marital status, along with attitude-related factors such as network externality, environmental awareness and concerns, price acceptability, government incentives, and vehicle performance have a significant impact on consumers’ willingness to purchase electric vehicles.

Therefore, it can be concluded that a majority of the earlier studies are context specific. The factors identified and studied also vary from one context to other. The studies do not converge in terms of identifying and listing factors affecting electric vehicle uptake in different contexts. There is no comprehensive list of the factors affecting electric vehicle uptake; thus, the present study aims to not only list the factors that are relevant in the current Indian context, but also develop a model to predict who will buy an electric vehicle in India.

1.3 Research Design

The present study was conducted in two stages. The first stage focused on identifying consumer interests and concerns related to electric vehicles. This stage is similar to opinion extraction or sentiment classification [ 26 , 27 ], and involves gathering and analyzing individuals’ opinions about some issue, event, product, etc. [ 28 , 29 ]. In the research context, opinion extraction can be understood as exploring and understanding issues that matter to Indian consumers in the electric vehicle context. Understanding public opinion helps in making better decisions. Presently, social media has become an important tool to express opinions on the issues that really matter to the masses [ 30 , 31 ]. Content created and shared in the EV context on Twitter by Indian people during January and February 2021 was collected by using N-Capture, i.e., a web browser extension that allows quick access and capture of web and social media content based on the keywords of interest. As N-Capture accesses all the data available on selected keywords, it can be treated like a census rather than a sampling study. To understand the opinions and concerns of Indian people for electric vehicles, a text analysis of the collected content was performed. Therefore, this stage was exploratory in nature with a focus on understanding Indian consumers’ opinions and concerns for electric vehicles. Similar approaches were also adopted in earlier studies [ 32 , 33 , 34 ]. The accessed text was analyzed with the help of SPSS and R. The outcome was a frequency count for the most often occurring words and word combinations. The findings can be presented either as a frequency distribution table or a word cloud. A word cloud presents high-frequency words in a visualization with different sizes. The size of different words indicates the frequency of its occurrence [ 35 ]. The word cloud provided much needed understanding about EV concerns of Indian consumers. Understanding consumer concerns and opinions relating to electric vehicles helped the researchers in designing a questionnaire for the second section of this paper.

Section 2 of the paper develops a predictive machine learning model to predict who will or will not buy EVs. This may be treated as descriptive research using survey methodology. A questionnaire was developed for the purpose of data collection. The questionnaire collected data on the parameters of concerns identified from the literature review and text analysis findings, and was tested for content/face validity by taking the opinion of 8 experts [ 36 ]. The experts were consistent in their opinions about the relevance of the parameters included in the questionnaire. Some changes related to the wording of statements were made. The changes suggested by the experts were incorporated into the questionnaire, which was sent to the respondents as a Google document to collect the data. The sampling methodology is convenience sampling, the reason for which is its efficiency in terms of time and money. In addition, due to electric vehicles being a subject of common concern, the sampling method provided a readily available sample in the given research context. A total of 245 respondents returned usable questionnaires. The collected data was analyzed with the help of SPSS and R to develop a predictive machine learning model.

2 Analysis and Findings

2.1 understanding stakeholders’ concerns using text analysis.

Social media, e-newspapers, and review websites have now become an active tool for everyone to express their views and opinions on specific issues. Analyzing these helps in gaining insights and a general overview of public opinions or concerns. India is a highly populated country with a huge population falling under the group of “working-age population,” and, according to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, the government of India is 15–64 years of age. The digital penetration in India has increased significantly over the last few years. As per the Telecom Regulator Authority in India on June 30th, 2019, the tele-density, i.e., the number of telephonic connections for every 100 individuals living in the area, in Indian urban areas was 160. Further availability of 4G and LTE services across most of India has made the digital space more vibrant than ever.

Social media has now become a platform for exchanging ideas, concerns, and opinions by the masses. Twitter is the most widely used platform for this purpose by all groups of people. According to Statista, the number of Twitter users in India was estimated to be 24.45 million in October 2021. Almost all major influencers such as corporate leaders, policymakers, policy advocates, journalists, and media houses have a Twitter account; therefore, the platform is one among many social media platforms one can use to gain an insight into what consumers are discussing. For this study, tweets were extracted, and text analysis was carried out to understand what online users are talking about regarding electric vehicles in India. The tweets were collected by using hashtags #EVIndia and #EVIssues. The extracted tweets were then analyzed for the most frequently occurring words in the dataset. The sole purpose of this was to understand what the most frequently discussed topics are related to electric vehicles. Then, a word cloud was formed for better visualizations, which also became the basis for the questionnaire that was later floated to make a predictive model that could classify whether a consumer will “Buy” or “Won’t Buy” an electric vehicle.

2.2 Hashtag: #EVIndia

The first hashtag we used to collect content was #EVIndia. To analyze the collected content, a frequency bar plot and word cloud were formed, which are presented in (Figs.  1 , 2 ). It can clearly be seen that the most frequently used word was “electric,” followed by “charging,” “vehicle,” “battery,” and so on. It can be concluded from these high-frequency words that the Indian consumers are talking about electric vehicles. This simply means that electric vehicles have attracted the attention of Indian users and they are discussing and sharing their concerns. When it comes to concerns, the words “charging” and “battery” are used most frequently, indicating that consumers are most concerned about battery-charging issues. The word “experience” is another high-frequency word, but surprisingly, they are not talking much about vehicle price, government incentives, or the maintenance costs.

Frequency count of most frequently occurring words for #EVIndia

Word cloud visualization of most frequently occurring words #EVindia

2.3 Hashtag #EVIssues #EVIndia

These two hashtags together were chosen deliberately to capture public opinion and concerns related to EVs in India. The frequency bar plot and word cloud obtained are presented in (Figs.  3 , 4 ). From the bar plot, it can be observed that “battery” and “products” are the words most often used. Other high-frequency words are “experience,” “solution,” “showcased,” “innovators,” and “exhibitors.” This also indicates that consumers are most concerned about the battery and related issues. Frequent use of the word “innovators” may indicate a discussion about the firms innovating in the domain of electric vehicles. They also discuss showcasing and exhibition of electrical vehicles and related technologies. In this case, other words such as “price,” “operating cost,” and “subsidies” did not turn up as words occurring with high frequency.

Frequency count of most frequently occurring words for #EVIssues #EVIndia

Word cloud visualization of most frequently occurring word for #EVIssues #EVIndia

In summary, from the above text analysis, it may be concluded that Indian consumers are aware, concerned, and talking about electric vehicles and related issues. However, the amount and deepness of discussion relating to electric vehicles is quite limited. Consumers are most concerned about battery and battery-charging issues. Surprisingly, vehicle price and maintenance costs were not something they were concerned or talking much about.

2.4 Model to Predict Who Will Buy

A predictive machine learning model was developed to predict whether a consumer in India will or will not buy an electric vehicle depending on the input variables. There are many popular machine learning classification models that can predict with decent accuracy, but in this research paper, the logistic regression algorithm was used for forecasting. The advantages of using a logistic regression are that the normalization of data is not required, scaling of the data is not required, and missing data does not impact model building. However, one of the disadvantages of using logistic regression models is that training analysts to use the model takes longer, which at times becomes a concern [ 37 , 38 , 39 ].

Surveys are commonly used to understand consumer behavior. A primary survey involves first-hand data collection by the researcher, and the data obtained is further analyzed to gain insights. To collect data for the model, a questionnaire was floated among the respondents. The variables chosen were based on the literature review and the outcomes obtained from the text analysis of the tweets. The variables used in the model are a combination of demographic, social, contextual, level of environmental awareness, and other relevant considerations of Indian consumers. The predictive machine learning model developed can classify whether an Indian consumer would “Buy” or “Won’t Buy” an electric vehicle. A total of 245 respondents replied to the google form questionnaire sent to them. The (Table 1 ) presents the data dictionary for the variables chosen for the questionnaire.

2.5 Sample Description

The survey questionnaire was floated among respondents and received a total of 245 usable responses. The sample description is presented in (Table 2 ). The respondents consisted of 140 males and 105 females. In terms of their marital status, 59% were married and 41% were unmarried. Regarding their age, the majority of respondents were less than 25 years of age representing 44% of the total and were closely followed by the 26- to 35-year age group representing 38%. People above these two age groups represented only 22%; thus, the majority consisted of younger generation respondents. The reason for this could likely be that the younger respondents are more aware and concerned about EVs in India. In terms of educational attainment, a majority were post-graduate and represented 44% of respondents. This was followed by graduates with 33% representation. People who had not graduated represented 22% of the respondents. In terms of income, the majority of the respondents were from below 5 Lakh income group representing 45%, followed by 5–8 Lakh income group representing 31%. This is in line with the large proportion of respondents who were from the student community or early on in their employment. In terms of employment, the majority of 63% was in service, followed by 24% in business, and 12% in the unemployed category. In terms of their geographical location, east, west, north, south, and central India were represented with 25, 24, 29, 12, and 10% respondents in each group, respectively. From the age distribution, it can be observed that the sample has a slight bias toward the younger population. This seems to be normal because it is these younger generation people who are typically more concerned about new technological developments, including electric vehicles. This group is also more active in voicing their concerns relating to a subject of interest on internet and social platforms. Therefore, the sample was a fair representation of all groups from all geographical regions in India in the context of the present study. Similarly, the results of present research may be generalizable over the larger Indian population.

Before proceeding to the logistic regression model building, correlation among the continuous variables were explored. No variable was found to have a strong correlation with other variables, which indicates that the issue of multicollinearity was not present. Multicollinearity is a statistical phenomenon in which predictor variables in a logistic regression model are highly correlated. The existence of collinearity inflates the variances of the parameter estimates, resulting in incorrect inferences about relationships between predictor and outcome variables [ 40 ].

2.6 Machine Learning Classification Model

A logistic regression machine learning model was developed on SPSS for the data collected and outputs have been summarized in (Tables 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 ). Logistic regression is a classification technique that predicts whether something is true or false. The output of the logistic regression model is presented below. As previously mentioned, a total of 245 cases were included in the model. No instance of a missing case was reported. The dependent variable was coded as 1 to indicate an intention to buy, and 0 for no intention to buy an electrical vehicle. (Table 5 ) presents the omnibus tests of the model coefficients. The value given in the significance column is the probability of getting a Chi Square statistic (114.525) when the null hypothesis is true. The model is statistically significant as the p values reported are less than 0.05. The degree of freedom (df) column is an indication of the number of predictors in the model. For the current model, df is 13, which indicates that the model uses 13 predictors.

(Table 6 ) presents the model summary. The logistics regression does not have an R 2 to predict the variation in the outcome variable that can be explained by the model predictors as the case in OLS regression. In place of R 2 , a large variety of pseudo- R 2 statistics has been developed. Two such statistics developed by Cox and Snell and Nagelkerke are presented in (Table 6 ). However, these statistics are not good equivalents to R 2 statistics on OLS. These should be treated as supplementary to other evaluative indices such as overall evaluation of the model, test of individual regression coefficients, and goodness-of-fit test statistics.

The classification (Table 7 ) is used to calculate model accuracy, precision, and recall. The “observed” column presents the number of “Buy” and “Won’t Buy” as the dependent variables. The “predicted” column presents predicted values of the dependent variables based on the full logistic model. 64 cases are observed to be “Won’t Buy” and are correctly predicted to be “Won’t Buy;” 135 cases are observed to be “Buy” and are correctly predicted to be “Buy.” On the other hand, 27 cases are observed to be “Won’t Buy,” but are predicted to be “Buy;” 19 cases are observed to be “Buy” but are predicted to be “Not Buy.”

Table 8 presents the variables in the logistic regression equation. Different columns of this table present significant information to predict the outcome variable. Column B indicates log-odds units to predict dependent variables from independent variables. The prediction equation is:

The estimates for different variables indicate a predicted increase or decrease in the predicted log-odds to buy an electric vehicle that would be indicated by one unit increase or decrease holding all other predictors constant. For all predictor variables that are not significant, the coefficients are not significantly different from 0. To identify coefficients that are significant values in the column labeled Wald are used. These columns provide the Wald chi-square value and two-tailed p value used in testing the null hypothesis that the coefficient (parameter) is 0. Each p value is compared with the preselected value of alpha to determine whether it is a statistically significant predictor. Coefficients having p values less than alpha are statistically significant. To predict the purchase of an electric vehicle, the authors have chosen alpha to be 0.05, which means that in all cases where alpha is reported to be less than 0.05, the null hypothesis can be rejected, and it can be concluded that the coefficient is significantly different from 0.

From the Sig, it can be observed that age, gender, income, level of environmental concerns, vehicle cost, running cost, vehicle performance, driving range, and mass behavior are significant predictors of electric vehicle purchase. On the other hand, level of education, employment, and government subsidy were not found to be significant predictors of e -vehicle purchase or uptake. The constant of the model was also reported to not be a statistically significant predictor of electrical vehicle purchase. Exp(B) are the odds ratios for the predictor e-vehicle “Buy” or “Won’t Buy.” These are exponentials of the coefficients. The odds ratio indicates the change in the odds of the outcome variable given a unit change in any predictor variable.

2.7 Conclusions and Suggestions

After carrying out the literature review, it can be concluded that the electric vehicle industry in different regions and countries is at different levels of evolution. Many countries are making serious efforts in the development of electric vehicles and related infrastructure. Governments are also providing right policy, environment, and financial support to increase electric vehicle uptake. A wide variety of factors has been studied to influence the uptake of electric vehicles in different contexts. From the text analysis, it can be concluded that people are talking about electric vehicles in India, but the issues they are discussing on the internet and social media platforms are not very serious or deep. The reason for this lower interest is likely that the availability of electric vehicles is still limited for common consumers in India. The most used words in Indian electric vehicle context are “battery,” “charging,” and “experience.” Government subsidies or incentives for increasing electric vehicle uptake were not significantly discussed. It can be concluded from the text analysis that charging stations and batteries continue to be the most discussed words in the EV context on social media.

A Logistic Regression model with 81.22% accuracy was developed, which classifies consumers into either the “Buy” or “Won’t Buy” category. The model included age, gender, income, level of environmental concerns, vehicle cost, running cost, vehicle performance, driving range, and mass behavior as significant predictors to classify a consumer in either category. However, level of education, employment, and government subsidy were not found to be significant predictors in e-vehicle purchase or uptake. The findings of the model can be used by electric vehicle marketers to enhance design, delivery, and marketing for better uptake of electric vehicles in India’s personal passenger vehicle segment.

2.8 Scope for Future Research

For the present study, the text analysis carried out was based on random tweets obtained from N-Capture software and thus future research may explore and capture conversations from a greater number of social media platforms. The wider content is expected to provide a better understanding of people’s opinions and concerns relating to electric vehicles. Similarly, a predictive model may be developed with better indicators that may also evolve with time. Finally, for data collection, a wider sample covering respondents with a wide demographic and regional representation may be surveyed to obtain results with better generalization potential.

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Dixit, S.K., Singh, A.K. Predicting Electric Vehicle (EV) Buyers in India: A Machine Learning Approach. Rev Socionetwork Strat 16 , 221–238 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12626-022-00109-9

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Trends in electric cars

• Executive summary

Electric car sales

Electric car availability and affordability.

• Electric two- and three-wheelers
• Electric light commercial vehicles
• Electric truck and bus sales
• Electric heavy-duty vehicle model availability
• Charging for electric light-duty vehicles
• Charging for electric heavy-duty vehicles
• Battery supply and demand
• Battery prices
• Electric vehicle company strategy and market competition
• Electric vehicle and battery start-ups
• Vehicle outlook by mode
• Vehicle outlook by region
• The industry outlook
• Light-duty vehicle charging
• Heavy-duty vehicle charging
• Battery demand
• Electricity demand
• Oil displacement
• Well-to-wheel greenhouse gas emissions
• Lifecycle impacts of electric cars

Cite report

IEA (2024), Global EV Outlook 2024 , IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024, Licence: CC BY 4.0

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Nearly one in five cars sold in 2023 was electric.

Electric car sales neared 14 million in 2023, 95% of which were in China, Europe and the United States

Almost 14 million new electric cars 1 were registered globally in 2023, bringing their total number on the roads to 40 million, closely tracking the sales forecast from the 2023 edition of the Global EV Outlook (GEVO-2023). Electric car sales in 2023 were 3.5 million higher than in 2022, a 35% year-on-year increase. This is more than six times higher than in 2018, just 5 years earlier. In 2023, there were over 250 000 new registrations per week, which is more than the annual total in 2013, ten years earlier. Electric cars accounted for around 18% of all cars sold in 2023, up from 14% in 2022 and only 2% 5 years earlier, in 2018. These trends indicate that growth remains robust as electric car markets mature. Battery electric cars accounted for 70% of the electric car stock in 2023.

Global electric car stock, 2013-2023

While sales of electric cars are increasing globally, they remain significantly concentrated in just a few major markets. In 2023, just under 60% of new electric car registrations were in the People’s Republic of China (hereafter ‘China’), just under 25% in Europe, 2 and 10% in the United States – corresponding to nearly 95% of global electric car sales combined. In these countries, electric cars account for a large share of local car markets: more than one in three new car registrations in China was electric in 2023, over one in five in Europe, and one in ten in the United States. However, sales remain limited elsewhere, even in countries with developed car markets such as Japan and India. As a result of sales concentration, the global electric car stock is also increasingly concentrated. Nevertheless, China, Europe and the United States also represent around two-thirds of total car sales and stocks, meaning that the EV transition in these markets has major repercussions in terms of global trends.

In China, the number of new electric car registrations reached 8.1 million in 2023, increasing by 35% relative to 2022. Increasing electric car sales were the main reason for growth in the overall car market, which contracted by 8% for conventional (internal combustion engine) cars but grew by 5% in total, indicating that electric car sales are continuing to perform as the market matures. The year 2023 was the first in which China’s New Energy Vehicle (NEV) 3 industry ran without support from national subsidies for EV purchases, which have facilitated expansion of the market for more than a decade. Tax exemption for EV purchases and non-financial support remain in place, after an extension , as the automotive industry is seen as one of the key drivers of economic growth. Some province-led support and investment also remains in place and plays an important role in China’s EV landscape. As the market matures, the industry is entering a phase marked by increased price competition and consolidation. In addition, China exported over 4 million cars in 2023, making it the largest auto exporter in the world, among which 1.2 million were EVs. This is markedly more than the previous year – car exports were almost 65% higher than in 2022, and electric car exports were 80% higher. The main export markets for these vehicles were Europe and countries in the Asia Pacific region, such as Thailand and Australia.

In the United States, new electric car registrations totalled 1.4 million in 2023, increasing by more than 40% compared to 2022. While relative annual growth in 2023 was slower than in the preceding two years, demand for electric cars and absolute growth remained strong. The revised qualifications for the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit, alongside electric car price cuts, meant that some popular EV models became eligible for credit in 2023. Sales of the Tesla Model Y, for example, increased 50% compared to 2022 after it became eligible for the full USD 7 500 tax credit. Overall, the new criteria established by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) appear to have supported sales in 2023, despite earlier concerns that tighter domestic content requirements for EV and battery manufacturing could create immediate bottlenecks or delays, such as for the Ford F-150 Lightning . As of 2024, new guidance for the tax credits means the number of eligible models has fallen to less than 30 from about 45, 4 including several trim levels of the Tesla Model 3 becoming ineligible. However, in 2023 and 2024, leasing business models enable electric cars to qualify for the tax credits even if they do not fully meet the requirements, as leased cars can qualify for a less strict commercial vehicle tax credit and these tax credit savings can be passed to lease-holders. Such strategies have also contributed to sustained electric car roll-out.

In Europe, new electric car registrations reached nearly 3.2 million in 2023, increasing by almost 20% relative to 2022. In the European Union, sales amounted to 2.4 million, with similar growth rates. As in China, the high rates of electric car sales seen in Europe suggest that growth remains robust as markets mature, and several European countries reached important milestones in 2023. Germany, for example, became the third country after China and the United States to record half a million new battery electric car registrations in a single year, with 18% of car sales being battery electric (and another 6% plug-in hybrid).

However, the phase-out of several purchase subsidies in Germany slowed overall EV sales growth. At the start of 2023, PHEV subsidies were phased out, resulting in lower PHEV sales compared to 2022, and in December 2023, all EV subsidies ended after a ruling on the Climate and Transformation Fund. In Germany, the sales share for electric cars fell from 30% in 2022 to 25% in 2023. This had an impact on the overall electric car sales share in the region. In the rest of Europe, however, electric car sales and their sales share increased. Around 25% of all cars sold in France and the United Kingdom were electric, 30% in the Netherlands, and 60% in Sweden. In Norway, sales shares increased slightly despite the overall market contracting, and its sales share remains the highest in Europe, at almost 95%.

Electric car registrations and sales share in China, United States and Europe, 2018-2023

Sales in emerging markets are increasing, albeit from a low base, led by southeast asia and brazil.

Electric car sales continued to increase in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) outside China in 2023, but they remained low overall. In many cases, personal cars are not the most common means of passenger transport, especially compared with shared vans and minibuses, or two- and three-wheelers (2/3Ws), which are more prevalent and more often electrified, given their relative accessibility and affordability. The electrification of 2/3Ws and public or shared mobility will be key to achieve emissions reductions in such cases (see later sections in this report). While switching from internal combustion engine (ICE) to electric cars is important, the effect on overall emissions differs depending on the mode of transport that is displaced. Replacing 2/3Ws, public and shared mobility or more active forms of transport with personal cars may not be desirable in all cases.

In India, electric car registrations were up 70% year-on-year to 80 000, compared to a growth rate of under 10% for total car sales. Around 2% of all cars sold were electric. Purchase incentives under the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME II) scheme, supply-side incentives under the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, tax benefits and the Go Electric campaign have all contributed to fostering demand in recent years. A number of new models also became popular in 2023, such as Mahindra’s XUV400, MG’s Comet, Citroën’s e-C3, BYD’s Yuan Plus, and Hyundai’s Ioniq 5, driving up growth compared to 2022. However, if the forthcoming FAME III scheme includes a subsidy reduction, as has been speculated in line with lower subsidy levels in the 2024 budget, future growth could be affected. Local carmakers have thus far maintained a strong foothold in the market, supported by advantageous import tariffs , and account for 80% of electric car sales in cumulative terms since 2010, led by Tata (70%) and Mahindra (10%).

In Thailand, electric car registrations more than quadrupled year-on-year to nearly 90 000, reaching a notable 10% sales share – comparable to the share in the United States. This is all the more impressive given that overall car sales in the country decreased from 2022 to 2023. New subsidies, including for domestic battery manufacturing, and lower import and excise taxes, combined with the growing presence of Chinese carmakers , have contributed to rapidly increasing sales. Chinese companies account for over half the sales to date, and they could become even more prominent given that BYD plans to start operating EV production facilities in Thailand in 2024, with an annual production capacity of 150 000 vehicles for an investment of just under USD 500 million . Thailand aims to become a major EV manufacturing hub for domestic and export markets, and is aiming to attract USD 28 billion in foreign investment within 4 years, backed by specific incentives to foster investment.

In Viet Nam, after an exceptional 2022 for the overall car market, car sales contracted by 25% in 2023, but electric car sales still recorded unprecedented growth: from under 100 in 2021, to 7 000 in 2022, and over 30 000 in 2023, reaching a 15% sales share. Domestic front-runner VinFast, established in 2017, accounted for nearly all domestic sales. VinFast also started selling electric sports utility vehicles (SUVs) in North America in 2023, as well as developing manufacturing facilities in order to unlock domestic content-linked subsidies under the US IRA. VinFast is investing around USD 2 billion and targets an annual production of 150 000 vehicles in the United States by 2025. The company went public in 2023, far exceeding expectations with a debut market valuation of around USD 85 billion, well beyond General Motors (GM) (USD 46 billion), Ford (USD 48 billion) or BMW (USD 68 billion), before it settled back down around USD 20 billion by the end of the year. VinFast also looks to enter regional markets, such as India and the Philippines .

In Malaysia, electric car registrations more than tripled to 10 000, supported by tax breaks and import duty exemptions, as well as an acceleration in charging infrastructure roll-out. In 2023, Mercedes-Benz marketed the first domestically assembled EV, and both BYD and Tesla also entered the market.

In Latin America, electric car sales reached almost 90 000 in 2023, with markets in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico leading the region. In Brazil, electric car registrations nearly tripled year-on-year to more than 50 000, a market share of 3%. Growth in Brazil was underpinned by the entry of Chinese carmakers, such as BYD with its Song and Dolphin models, Great Wall with its H6, and Chery with its Tiggo 8, which immediately ranked among the best-selling models in 2023. Road transport electrification in Brazil could bring significant climate benefits given the largely low-emissions power mix, as well as reducing local air pollution. However, EV adoption has been slow thus far, given the national prioritisation of ethanol-based fuels since the late 1970s as a strategy to maintain energy security in the face of oil shocks. Today, biofuels are important alternative fuels available at competitive cost and aligned with the existing refuelling infrastructure. Brazil remains the world’s largest producer of sugar cane, and its agribusiness represents about one-fourth of GDP. At the end of 2023, Brazil launched the Green Mobility and Innovation Programme , which provides tax incentives for companies to develop and manufacture low-emissions road transport technology, aggregating to more than BRA 19 billion (Brazilian reals) (USD 3.8 billion) over the 2024-2028 period. Several major carmakers already in Brazil are developing hybrid ethanol-electric models as a result. China’s BYD and Great Wall are also planning to start domestic manufacturing, counting on local battery metal deposits, and plan to sell both fully electric and hybrid ethanol-electric models. BYD is investing over USD 600 million in its electric car plant in Brazil – its first outside Asia – for an annual capacity of 150 000 vehicles. BYD also partnered with Raízen to develop charging infrastructure in eight Brazilian cities starting in 2024. GM, on the other hand, plans to stop producing ICE (including ethanol) models and go fully electric, notably to produce for export markets. In 2024, Hyundai announced investments of USD 1.1 billion to 2032 to start local manufacturing of electric, hybrid and hydrogen cars.

In Mexico, electric car registrations were up 80% year-on-year to 15 000, a market share just above 1%. Given its proximity to the United States, Mexico’s automotive market is already well integrated with North American partners, and benefits from advantageous trade agreements, large existing manufacturing capacity, and eligibility for subsidies under the IRA. As a result, local EV supply chains are developing quickly, with expectations that this will spill over into domestic markets. Tesla, Ford, Stellantis, BMW, GM, Volkswagen (VW) and Audi have all either started manufacturing or announced plans to manufacture EVs in Mexico. Chinese carmakers such as BYD, Chery and SAIC are also considering expanding to Mexico. Elsewhere in the region, Colombia and Costa Rica are seeing increasing electric car sales, with around 6 000 and 5 000 in 2023, respectively, but sales remain limited in other Central and South American countries.

Throughout Africa, Eurasia and the Middle East, electric cars are still rare, accounting for less than 1% of total car sales. However, as Chinese carmakers look for opportunities abroad, new models – including those produced domestically – could boost EV sales. For example, in Uzbekistan , BYD set up a joint venture with UzAuto Motors in 2023 to produce 50 000 electric cars annually, and Chery International established a partnership with ADM Jizzakh. This partnership has already led to a steep increase in electric car sales in Uzbekistan, reaching around 10 000 in 2023. In the Middle East, Jordan boasts the highest electric car sales share, at more than 45%, supported by much lower import duties relative to ICE cars, followed by the United Arab Emirates, with 13%.

Strong electric car sales in the first quarter of 2024 surpass the annual total from just four years ago

Electric car sales remained strong in the first quarter of 2024, surpassing those of the same period in 2023 by around 25% to reach more than 3 million. This growth rate was similar to the increase observed for the same period in 2023 compared to 2022. The majority of the additional sales came from China, which sold about half a million more electric cars than over the same period in 2023. In relative terms, the most substantial growth was observed outside of the major EV markets, where sales increased by over 50%, suggesting that the transition to electromobility is picking up in an increasing number of countries worldwide.

Quarterly electric car sales by region, 2021-2024

From January to March of this year, nearly 1.9 million electric cars were sold in China, marking an almost 35% increase compared to sales in the first quarter of 2023. In March, NEV sales in China surpassed a share of 40% in overall car sales for the first time, according to retail sales reported by the China Passenger Car Association. As witnessed in 2023, sales of plug-in hybrid electric cars are growing faster than sales of pure battery electric cars. Plug-in hybrid electric car sales in the first quarter increased by around 75% year-on-year in China, compared to just 15% for battery electric car sales, though the former started from a lower base.

In Europe, the first quarter of 2024 saw year-on-year growth of over 5%, slightly above the growth in overall car sales and thereby stabilising the EV sales share at a similar level as last year. Electric car sales growth was particularly high in Belgium, where around 60 000 electric cars were sold, almost 35% more than the year before. However, Belgium represents less than 5% of total European car sales. In the major European markets – France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom (together representing about 60% of European car sales) – growth in electric car sales was lower. In France, overall EV sales in the first quarter grew by about 15%, with BEV sales growth being higher than for PHEVs. While this is less than half the rate as over the same period last year, total sales were nonetheless higher and led to a slight increase in the share of EVs in total car sales. The United Kingdom saw similar year-on-year growth (over 15%) in EV sales as France, about the same rate as over the same period last year. In Germany, where battery electric car subsidies ended in 2023, sales of electric cars fell by almost 5% in the first quarter of 2024, mainly as a result of a 20% year-on-year decrease in March. The share of EVs in total car sales was therefore slightly lower than last year. As in China, PHEV sales in both Germany and the United Kingdom were stronger than BEV sales. In Italy, sales of electric cars in the first three months of 2024 were more than 20% lower than over the same period in 2023, with the majority of the decrease taking place in the PHEV segment. However, this trend could be reversed based on the introduction of a new incentive scheme , and if Chinese automaker Chery succeeds in appealing to Italian consumers when it enters the market later this year.

In the United States, first-quarter sales reached around 350 000, almost 15% higher than over the same period the year before. As in other major markets, the sales growth of PHEVs was even higher, at 50%. While the BEV sales share in the United States appears to have fallen somewhat over the past few months, the sales share of PHEVs has grown.

In smaller EV markets, sales growth in the first months of 2024 was much higher, albeit from a low base. In January and February, electric car sales almost quadrupled in Brazil and increased more than sevenfold in Viet Nam. In India, sales increased more than 50% in the first quarter of 2024. These figures suggest that EVs are gaining momentum across diverse markets worldwide.

Since 2021, first-quarter electric car sales have typically accounted for 15-20% of the total global annual sales. Based on this observed trend, coupled with policy momentum and the seasonality that EV sales typically experience, we estimate that electric car sales could reach around 17 million in 2024. This indicates robust growth for a maturing market, with 2024 sales to surpass those of 2023 by more than 20% and EVs to reach a share in total car sales of more than one-fifth.

Electric car sales, 2012-2024

The majority of the additional 3 million electric car sales projected for 2024 relative to 2023 are from China. Despite the phase-out of NEV purchase subsidies last year, sales in China have remained robust, indicating that the market is maturing. With strong competition and relatively low-cost electric cars, sales are to grow by almost 25% in 2024 compared to last year, reaching around 10 million. If confirmed, this figure will come close to the total global electric car sales in 2022. As a result, electric car sales could represent around 45% of total car sales in China over 2024.

In 2024, electric car sales in the United States are projected to rise by 20% compared to the previous year, translating to almost half a million more sales, relative to 2023. Despite reporting of a rocky end to 2023 for electric cars in the United States, sales shares are projected to remain robust in 2024. Over the entire year, around one in nine cars sold are expected to be electric.

Based on recent trends, and considering that tightening CO 2 targets are due to come in only in 2025, the growth in electric car sales in Europe is expected to be the lowest of the three largest markets. Sales are projected to reach around 3.5 million units in 2024, reflecting modest growth of less than 10% compared to the previous year. In the context of a generally weak outlook for passenger car sales, electric cars would still represent about one in four cars sold in Europe.

Outside of the major EV markets, electric car sales are anticipated to reach the milestone of over 1 million units in 2024, marking a significant increase of over 40% compared to 2023. Recent trends showing the success of both homegrown and Chinese electric carmakers in Southeast Asia underscore that the region is set to make a strong contribution to the sales of emerging EV markets (see the section on Trends in the electric vehicle industry). Despite some uncertainty surrounding whether India’s forthcoming FAME III scheme will include subsidies for electric cars, we expect sales in India to remain robust, and to experience around 50% growth compared to 2023. Across all regions outside the three major EV markets, electric car sales are expected to represent around 5% of total car sales in 2024, which – considering the high growth rates seen in recent years – could indicate that a tipping point towards global mass adoption is getting closer.

There are of course downside risks to the 2024 outlook for electric car sales. Factors such as high interest rates and economic uncertainty could potentially reduce the growth of global electric car sales in 2024. Other challenges may come from the IRA restrictions on US electric car tax incentives, and the tightening of technical requirements for EVs to qualify for the purchase tax exemption in China. However, there are also upside potentials to consider. New markets may open up more rapidly than anticipated, as automakers expand their EV operations and new entrants compete for market share. This could lead to accelerated growth in electric car sales globally, surpassing the initial estimations.

More electric models are becoming available, but the trend is towards larger ones

The number of available electric car models nears 600, two-thirds of which are large vehicles and SUVs

In 2023, the number of available models for electric cars increased 15% year-on-year to nearly 590, as carmakers scaled up electrification plans, seeking to appeal to a growing consumer base. Meanwhile, the number of fully ICE models (i.e. excluding hybrids) declined for the fourth consecutive year, at an average of 2%. Based on recent original equipment manufacturer (OEM) announcements, the number of new electric car models could reach 1 000 by 2028. If all announced new electric models actually reach the market, and if the number of available ICE car models continues to decline by 2% annually, there could be as many electric as ICE car models before 2030.

As reported in GEVO-2023, the share of small and medium electric car models is decreasing among available electric models: in 2023, two-thirds of the battery-electric models on the market were SUVs, 5 pick-up trucks or large cars. Just 25% of battery electric car sales in the United States were for small and medium models, compared to 40% in Europe and 50% in China. Electric cars are following the same trend as conventional cars, and getting bigger on average. In 2023, SUVs, pick-up trucks and large models accounted for 65% of total ICE car sales worldwide, and more than 80% in the United States, 60% in China and 50% in Europe.

Several factors underpin the increase in the share of large models. Since the 2010s, conventional SUVs in the United States have benefited from less stringent tailpipe emissions rules than smaller models, creating an incentive for carmakers to market more vehicles in that segment. Similarly, in the European Union, CO 2 targets for passenger cars have included a compromise on weight, allowing CO 2 leeway for heavier vehicles in some cases. Larger vehicles also mean larger margins for carmakers. Given that incumbent carmakers are not yet making a profit on their EV offer in many cases, focusing on larger models enables them to increase their margins. Under the US IRA, electric SUVs can qualify for tax credits as long as they are priced under USD 80 000, whereas the limit stands at USD 55 000 for a sedan, creating an incentive to market SUVs if a greater margin can be gathered. On the demand side, there is now strong willingness to pay for SUVs or large models. Consumers are typically interested in longer-range and larger cars for their primary vehicles, even though small models are more suited to urban use. Higher marketing spend on SUVs compared to smaller models can also have an impact on consumer choices.

The progressive shift towards ICE SUVs has been dramatically limiting fuel savings. Over the 2010-2022 period, without the shift to SUVs, energy use per kilometre could have fallen at an average annual rate 30% higher than the actual rate. Switching to electric in the SUV and larger car segments can therefore achieve immediate and significant CO 2 emissions reductions, and electrification also brings considerable benefits in terms of reducing air pollution and non-tailpipe emissions, especially in urban settings. In 2023, if all ICE and HEV sales of SUVs had instead been BEV, around 770 Mt CO 2 could have been avoided globally over the cars’ lifetimes (see section 10 on lifecycle analysis). This is equivalent to the total road emissions of China in 2023.

Breakdown of battery electric car sales in selected countries and regions by segment, 2018-2023

Nevertheless, from a policy perspective, it is critical to mitigate the negative spillovers associated with an increase in larger electric cars in the fleet.

Larger electric car models have a significant impact on battery supply chains and critical mineral demand. In 2023, the sales-weighted average battery electric SUV in Europe had a battery almost twice as large as the one in the average small electric car, with a proportionate impact on critical mineral needs. Of course, the range of small cars is typically shorter than SUVs and large cars (see later section on ranges). However, when comparing electric SUVs and medium-sized electric cars, which in 2023 offered a similar range, the SUV battery was still 25% larger. This means that if all electric SUVs sold in 2023 had instead been medium-sized cars, around 60 GWh of battery equivalent could have been avoided globally, with limited impact on range. Accounting for the different chemistries used in China, Europe, and the United States, this would be equivalent to almost 6 000 tonnes of lithium, 30 000 tonnes of nickel, almost 7 000 tonnes of cobalt, and over 8 000 tonnes of manganese.

Larger batteries also require more power, or longer charging times. This can put pressure on electricity grids and charging infrastructure by increasing occupancy, which could create issues during peak utilisation, such as at highway charging points at high traffic times.

In addition, larger vehicles also require greater quantities of materials such as iron and steel, aluminium and plastics, with a higher environmental and carbon footprint for materials production, processing and assembly. Because they are heavier, larger models also have higher electricity consumption. The additional energy consumption resulting from the increased mass is mitigated by regenerative braking to some extent, but in 2022, the sales-weighted average electricity consumption of electric SUVs was 20% higher than that of other electric cars. 6

Major carmakers have announced launches of smaller and more affordable electric car models over the past few years. However, when all launch announcements are considered, far fewer smaller models are expected than SUVs, large models and pick-up trucks. Only 25% of the 400+ launches expected over the 2024-2028 period are small and medium models, which represents a smaller share of available models than in 2023. Even in China, where small and medium models have been popular, new launches are typically for larger cars.

Number of available car models in 2023 and expected new ones by powertrain, country or region and segment, 2024-2028

Several governments have responded by introducing policies to create incentives for smaller and lighter passenger cars. In Norway, for example, all cars are subject to a purchase tax based on weight, CO 2 and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) emissions, though electric cars were exempt from the weight-based tax prior to 2023. Any imported cars weighing more than 500 kg must also pay an entry fee for each additional kg. In France, a progressive weight-based tax applies to ICE and PHEV cars weighing above 1 600 kg, with a significant impact on price: weight tax for a Land Rover Defender 130 (2 550 kg) adds up to more than EUR 21 500, versus zero for a Renault Clio (1 100 kg). Battery electric cars have been exempted to date. In February 2024, a referendum held in Paris resulted in a tripling of city parking fees for visiting SUVs, applicable to ICE, hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars above 1 600 kg and battery electric ones above 2 000 kg, in an effort to limit the use of large and/or polluting vehicles. Other examples exist in Estonia, Finland, Switzerland and the Netherlands. A number of policy options may be used, such as caps and fleet averages for vehicle footprint, weight, and/or battery size; access to finance for smaller vehicles; and sustained support for public charging, enabling wider use of shorter-range cars.

Average range is increasing, but only moderately

Concerns about range compared to ICE vehicles, and about the availability of charging infrastructure for long-distance journeys, also contribute to increasing appetite for larger models with longer range.

With increasing battery size and improvements in battery technology and vehicle design, the sales-weighted average range of battery electric cars grew by nearly 75% between 2015 and 2023, although trends vary by segment. The average range of small cars in 2023 – around 150 km – is not much higher than it was in 2015, indicating that this range is already well suited for urban use (with the exception of taxis, which have much higher daily usage). Large, higher-end models already offered higher ranges than average in 2015, and their range has stagnated through 2023, averaging around 360-380 km. Meanwhile, significant improvements have been made for medium-sized cars and SUVs, the range of which now stands around 380 km, whereas it averaged around 150 km for medium cars and 270 km for SUVs in 2015. This is encouraging for consumers looking to purchase an electric car for longer journeys rather than urban use.

Since 2020, growth in the average range of vehicles has been slower than over the 2015-2020 period. This could result from a number of factors, including fluctuating battery prices, carmakers’ attempts to limit additional costs as competition intensifies, and technical constraints (e.g. energy density, battery size). It could also reflect that beyond a certain range at which most driving needs are met, consumers’ willingness to pay for a marginal increase in battery size and range is limited. Looking forward, however, the average range could start increasing again as novel battery technologies mature and prices fall.

More affordable electric cars are needed to reach a mass-market tipping point

An equitable and inclusive transition to electric mobility, both within countries and at the global level, hinges on the successful launch of affordable EVs (including but not limited to electric cars). In this section, we use historic sales and price data for electric and ICE models around the world to examine the total cost of owning an electric car, price trends over time, and the remaining electric premium, by country and vehicle size. 7 Specific models are used for illustration.

Total cost of ownership

Car purchase decisions typically involve consideration of retail price and available subsidies as well as lifetime operating costs, such as fuel costs, insurance, maintenance and depreciation, which together make up the total cost of ownership (TCO). Reaching TCO parity between electric and ICE cars creates important financial incentives to make the switch. This section examines the different components of the TCO, by region and car size.

In 2023, upfront retail prices for electric cars were generally higher than for their ICE equivalents, which increased their TCO in relative terms. On the upside, higher fuel efficiency and lower maintenance costs enable fuel cost savings for electric cars, lowering their TCO. This is especially true in periods when fuel prices are high, in places where electricity prices are not too closely correlated to fossil fuel prices. Depreciation is also a major factor in determining TCO: As a car ages, it loses value, and depreciation for electric cars tends to be faster than for ICE equivalents, further increasing their TCO. Accelerated depreciation could, however, prove beneficial for the development of second-hand markets.

However, the trend towards faster depreciation for electric vehicles might be reversed for multiple reasons. Firstly, consumers are gaining more confidence in electric battery lifetimes, thereby increasing the resale value of EVs. Secondly, strong demand and the positive brand image of some BEV models can mean they hold their value longer, as shown by Tesla models depreciating more slowly than the average petrol car in the United States. Finally, increasing fuel prices in some regions, the roll-out of low-emissions zones that restrict access for the most polluting vehicles, and taxes and parking fees specifically targeted at ICE vehicles could mean they experience faster depreciation rates than EVs in the future. In light of these two possible opposing depreciation trends, the same fixed annual depreciation rate for both BEVs and ICE vehicles has been applied in the following cost of ownership analysis.

Subsidies help lower the TCO of electric cars relative to ICE equivalents in multiple ways. A purchase subsidy lowers the original retail price, thereby lowering capital depreciation over time, and a lower retail price implies lower financing costs through cumulative interest. Subsidies can significantly reduce the number of years required to reach TCO parity between electric and ICE equivalents. As of 2022, we estimate that TCO parity could be reached in most cases in under 7 years in the three major EV markets, with significant variations across different car sizes. In comparison, for models purchased at 2018 prices, TCO parity was much harder to achieve.

In Germany, for example, we estimate that the sales-weighted average price of a medium-sized battery electric car in 2022 was 10-20% more expensive than its ICE equivalent, but 10-20% cheaper in cumulative costs of ownership after 5 years, thanks to fuel and maintenance costs savings. In the case of an electric SUV, we estimate that the average annual operating cost savings would amount to USD 1 800 when compared to the equivalent conventional SUV over a period of 10 years. In the United States, despite lower fuel prices with respect to electricity, the higher average annual mileage results in savings that are close to Germany at USD 1 600 per year. In China, lower annual distance driven reduces fuel cost savings potential, but the very low price of electricity enables savings of about USD 1 000 per year.

In EMDEs, some electric cars can also be cheaper than ICE equivalents over their lifetime. This is true in India , for example, although it depends on the financing instrument. Access to finance is typically much more challenging in EMDEs due to higher interest rates and the more limited availability of cheap capital. Passenger cars have also a significantly lower market penetration in the first place, and many car purchases are made in second-hand markets. Later sections of this report look at markets for used electric cars, as well as the TCO for electric and conventional 2/3Ws in EMDEs, where they are far more widespread than cars as a means of road transport.

Upfront retail price parity

Achieving price parity between electric and ICE cars will be an important tipping point. Even when the TCO for electric cars is advantageous, the upfront retail price plays a decisive role, and mass-market consumers are typically more sensitive to price premiums than wealthier buyers. This holds true not only in emerging and developing economies, which have comparatively high costs of capital and comparatively low household and business incomes, but also in advanced economies. In the United States, for example, surveys suggest affordability was the top concern for consumers considering EV adoption in 2023. Other estimates show that even among SUV and pick-up truck consumers, only 50% would be willing to purchase one above USD 50 000.

In this section, we examine historic price trends for electric and ICE cars over the 2018-2022 period, by country and car size, and for best-selling models in 2023.

Electric cars are generally getting cheaper as battery prices drop, competition intensifies, and carmakers achieve economies of scale. In most cases, however, they remain on average more expensive than ICE equivalents. In some cases, after adjusting for inflation, their price stagnated or even moderately increased between 2018 and 2022.

Larger batteries for longer ranges increase car prices, and so too do the additional options, equipment, digital technology and luxury features that are often marketed on top of the base model. A disproportionate focus on larger, premium models is pushing up the average price, which – added to the lack of available models in second-hand markets (see below) – limits potential to reach mass-market consumers. Importantly, geopolitical tension, trade and supply chain disruptions, increasing battery prices in 2022 relative to 2021, and rising inflation, have also significantly affected the potential for further cost declines.

Competition can also play an important role in bringing down electric car prices. Intensifying competition leads carmakers to cut prices to the minimum profit margin they can sustain, and – if needed – to do so more quickly than battery and production costs decline. For example, between mid-2022 and early-2024, Tesla cut the price of its Model Y from between USD 65 000 and USD 70 000 to between USD 45 000 and USD 55 000 in the United States. Battery prices for such a model dropped by only USD 3 000 over the same period in the United States, suggesting that a profit margin may still be made at a lower price. Similarly, in China, the price of the Base Model Y dropped from CNY 320 000 (Yuan renminbi) (USD 47 000) to CNY 250 000 (USD 38 000), while the corresponding battery price fell by only USD 1 000. Conversely, in cases where electric models remain niche or aimed at wealthier, less price-sensitive early adopters, their price may not fall as quickly as battery prices, if carmakers can sustain greater margins.

Price gap between the sales-weighted average price of conventional and electric cars in selected countries, before subsidy, by size, in 2018 and 2022

In China, where the sales share of electric cars has been high for several years, the sales-weighted average price of electric cars (before purchase subsidy) is already lower than that of ICE cars. This is true not only when looking at total sales, but also at the small cars segment, and is close for SUVs. After accounting for the EV exemption from the 10% vehicle purchase tax, electric SUVs were already on par with conventional ones in 2022, on average.

Electric car prices have dropped significantly since 2018. We estimate that around 55% of the electric cars sold in China in 2022 were cheaper than their average ICE equivalent, up from under 10% in 2018. Given the further price declines between 2022 and 2023, we estimate that this share increased to around 65% in 2023. These encouraging trends suggest that price parity between electric and ICE cars could also be reached in other countries in certain segments by 2030, if the sales share of electric cars continues to grow, and if supporting infrastructure – such as for charging – is sustained.

As reported in detail in GEVO-2023 , China remains a global exception in terms of available inexpensive electric models. Local carmakers already market nearly 50 small, affordable electric car models, many of which are priced under CNY 100 000 (USD 15 000). This is in the same range as best-selling small ICE cars in 2023, which cost from CNY 70 000 to CNY 100 000. In 2022, the best-selling electric car was SAIC’s small Wuling Hongguang Mini EV, which accounted for 10% of all BEV sales. It was priced around CNY 40 000, weighing under 700 kg for a 170-km range. In 2023, however, it was overtaken by Tesla models, among other larger models, as new consumers seek longer ranges and higher-end options and digital equipment.

United States

In the United States, the sales-weighted average price of electric cars decreased over the 2018-2022 period, primarily driven by a considerable drop in the price of Tesla cars, which account for a significant share of sales. The sales-weighted average retail price of electric SUVs fell slightly more quickly than the average SUV battery costs over the same period. The average price of small and medium models also decreased, albeit to a smaller extent.

Across all segments, electric models remained more expensive than conventional equivalents in 2022. However, the gap has since begun to close, as market size increases and competition leads carmakers to cut prices. For example, in 2023-2024, Tesla’s Model 3 could be found in the USD 39 000 to USD 42 000 range, which is comparable to the average price for new ICE cars, and a new Model Y priced under USD 50 000 was launched. Rivian is expecting to launch its R2 SUV in 2026 at USD 45 000, which is much less than previous vehicles. Average price parity between electric and conventional SUVs could be reached by 2030, but it may only be reached later for small and medium cars, given their lower availability and popularity.

Smaller, cheaper electric models have further to go to reach price parity in the United States. We estimate that in 2022, only about 5% of the electric cars sold in the United States were cheaper than their average ICE equivalent. In 2023, the cheapest electric cars were priced around USD 30 000 (e.g. Chevrolet Bolt, Nissan Leaf, Mini Cooper SE). To compare, best-selling small ICE options cost under USD 20 000 (e.g. Kia Rio, Mitsubishi Mirage), and many best-selling medium ICE options between USD 20 000 and USD 25 000 (e.g. Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, Kia Forte, Hyundai Avante, Nissan Sentra).

Around 25 new all-electric car models are expected in 2024, but only 5 of them are expected below USD 50 000, and none under the USD 30 000 mark. Considering all the electric models expected to be available in 2024, about 75% are priced above USD 50 000, and fewer than 10 under USD 40 000, even after taking into account the USD 7 500 tax credit under the IRA for eligible cars as of February 2024. This means that despite the tax credit, few electric car models directly compete with small mass-market ICE models.

In December 2023, GM stopped production of its best-selling electric car, the Bolt, announcing it would introduce a new version in 2025. The Nissan Leaf (40 kWh) therefore remains the cheapest available electric car in 2024, at just under USD 30 000, but is not yet eligible for IRA tax credits. Ford announced in 2024 that it would move away from large and expensive electric cars as a way to convince more consumers to switch to electric, at the same time as increasing output of ICE models to help finance a transition to electric mobility. In 2024, Tesla announced it would start producing a next-generation, compact and affordable electric car in June 2025, but the company had already announced in 2020 that it would deliver a USD 25 000 model within 3 years. Some micro urban electric cars are already available between USD 5 000 and USD 20 000 (e.g. Arcimoto FUV, Nimbus One), but they are rare. In theory, such models could cover many use cases, since 80% of car journeys in the United States are under 10 miles .

Pricing trends differ across European countries, and typically vary by segment.

In Norway, after taking into account the EV sales tax exemption, electric cars are already cheaper than ICE equivalents across all segments. In 2022, we estimate that the electric premium stood around -15%, and even -30% for medium-sized cars. Five years earlier, in 2018, the overall electric premium was less advantageous, at around -5%. The progressive reintroduction of sales taxes on electric cars may change these estimates for 2023 onwards.

Germany’s electric premium ranks among the lowest in the European Union. Although the sales-weighted average electric premium increased slightly between 2018 and 2022, it stood at 15% in 2022. It is particularly low for medium-sized cars (10-15%) and SUVs (20%), but remains higher than 50% for small models. In the case of medium cars, the sales-weighted average electric premium was as low as EUR 5 000 in 2022. We estimate that in 2022, over 40% of the medium electric cars sold in Germany were cheaper than their average ICE equivalent. Looking at total sales, over 25% of the electric cars sold in 2022 were cheaper than their average ICE equivalent. In 2023, the cheapest models among the best-selling medium electric cars were priced between EUR 22 000 and EUR 35 000 (e.g. MG MG4, Dacia Spring, Renault Megane), far cheaper than the three front-runners priced above EUR 45 000 (VW ID.3, Cupra Born, and Tesla Model 3). To compare, best-selling ICE cars in the medium segment were also priced between EUR 30 000 and EUR 45 000 (e.g. VW Golf, VW Passat Santana, Skoda Octavia Laura, Audi A3, Audi A4). At the end of 2023, Germany phased out its subsidy for electric car purchases, but competition and falling model prices could compensate for this.

In France, the sales-weighted average electric premium stagnated between 2018 and 2022. The average price of ICE cars also increased over the same period, though more moderately than that of electric models. Despite a drop in the price of electric SUVs, which stood at a 30% premium over ICE equivalents in 2022, the former do not account for a high enough share of total electric car sales to drive down the overall average. The electric premium for small and medium cars remains around 40-50%.

These trends mirror those of some of the best-selling models. For example, when adjusting prices for inflation, the small Renault Zoe was sold at the same price on average in 2022-2023 as in 2018-2019, or EUR 30 000 (USD 32 000). It could be found for sale at as low as EUR 25 000 in 2015-2016. The earlier models, in 2015, had a battery size of around 20 kWh, which increased to around 40 kWh in 2018‑2019 and 50 kWh in newer models in 2022-2023. Yet European battery prices fell more quickly than the battery size increased over the same period, indicating that battery size alone does not explain car price dynamics.

In 2023, the cheapest electric cars in France were priced between EUR 22 000 and EUR 30 000 (e.g. Dacia Spring, Renault Twingo E-Tech, Smart EQ Fortwo), while best-selling small ICE models were available between EUR 10 000 and EUR 20 000 (e.g. Renault Clio, Peugeot 208, Citroën C3, Dacia Sandero, Opel Corsa, Skoda Fabia). Since mid-2024, subsidies of up to EUR 4 000 can be granted for electric cars priced under EUR 47 000, with an additional subsidy of up to EUR 3 000 for lower-income households.

In the United Kingdom, the sales-weighted average electric premium shrank between 2018 and 2022, thanks to a drop in prices for electric SUVs, as in the United States. Nonetheless, electric SUVs still stood at a 45% premium over ICE equivalents in 2022, which is similar to the premium for small models but far higher than for medium cars (20%).

In 2023, the cheapest electric cars in the United Kingdom were priced from GBP 27 000 to GBP 30 000 (USD 33 000 to 37 000) (e.g. MG MG4, Fiat 500, Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe), with the exception of the Smart EQ Fortwo, priced at GBP 21 000. To compare, best-selling small ICE options could be found from GBP 10 000 to 17 000 (e.g. Peugeot 208, Fiat 500, Dacia Sandero) and medium options below GBP 25 000 (e.g. Ford Puma). Since July 2022, there has been no subsidy for the purchase of electric passenger cars.

Elsewhere in Europe, electric cars remain typically much more expensive than ICE equivalents. In Poland , for example, just a few electric car models could be found at prices competitive with ICE cars in 2023, under the PLN 150 000 (Polish zloty) (EUR 35 000) mark. Over 70% of electric car sales in 2023 were for SUVs, or large or more luxurious models, compared to less than 60% for ICE cars.

In 2023, there were several announcements by European OEMs for smaller models priced under EUR 25 000 in the near-term (e.g. Renault R5, Citroën e-C3, Fiat e-Panda, VW ID.2all). There is also some appetite for urban microcars (i.e. L6-L7 category), learning from the success of China’s Wuling. Miniature models bring important benefits if they displace conventional models, helping reduce battery and critical mineral demand. Their prices are often below USD 5 000 (e.g. Microlino, Fiat Topolino, Citroën Ami, Silence S04, Birò B2211).

In Europe and the United States, electric car prices are expected to come down as a result of falling battery prices, more efficient manufacturing, and competition. Independent analyses suggest that price parity between some electric and ICE car models in certain segments could be reached over the 2025-2028 period, for example for small electric cars in Europe in 2025 or soon after. However, many market variables could delay price parity, such as volatile commodity prices, supply chain bottlenecks, and the ability of carmakers to yield sufficient margins from cheaper electric models. The typical rule in which economies of scale bring down costs is being complicated by numerous other market forces. These include a dynamic regulatory context, geopolitical competition, domestic content incentives, and a continually evolving technology landscape, with competing battery chemistries that each have their own economies of scale and regional specificities.

Japan is a rare example of an advanced economy where small models – both for electric and ICE vehicles – appeal to a large consumer base, motivated by densely populated cities with limited parking space, and policy support. In 2023, about 60% of total ICE sales were for small models, and over half of total electric sales. Two electric cars from the smallest “Kei” category, the Nissan Sakura and Mitsubishi eK-X, accounted for nearly 50% of national electric car sales alone, and both are priced between JPY 2.3 million (Japanese yen) and JPY 3 million (USD 18 000 to USD 23 000). However, this is still more expensive than best-selling small ICE cars (e.g. Honda N Box, Daihatsu Hijet, Daihatsu Tanto, Suzuki Spacia, Daihatsu Move), priced between USD 13 000 and USD 18 000. In 2024, Nissan announced that it would aim to reach cost parity (of production, not retail price) between electric and ICE cars by 2030.

Emerging market and developing economies

In EMDEs, the absence of small and cheaper electric car models is a significant hindrance to wider market uptake. Many of the available car models are SUVs or large models, targeting consumers of high-end goods, and far too expensive for mass-market consumers, who often do not own a personal car in the first place (see later sections on second-hand car markets and 2/3Ws).

In India, while Tata’s small Tiago/Tigor models, which are priced between USD 10 000 and USD 15 000, accounted for about 20% of total electric car sales in 2023, the average best-selling small ICE car is priced around USD 7 000. Large models and SUVs accounted for over 65% of total electric car sales. While BYD announced in 2023 the goal of accounting for 40% of India’s EV market by 2030, all of its models available in India cost more than INR 3 million (Indian rupees) (USD 37 000), including the Seal, launched in 2024 for INR 4.1 million (USD 50 000).

Similarly, SUVs and large models accounted for the majority share of electric car sales in Thailand (60%), Indonesia (55%), Malaysia (over 85%) and Viet Nam (over 95%). In Indonesia, for example, Hyundai’s Ionic 5 was the most popular electric car in 2023, priced at around USD 50 000. Looking at launch announcements, most new models expected over the 2024-2028 period in EMDEs are SUVs or large models. However, more than 50 small and medium models could also be introduced, and the recent or forthcoming entry of Chinese carmakers suggests that cheaper models could hit the market in the coming years.

In 2022-2023, Chinese carmakers accounted for 40-75% of the electric car sales in Indonesia, Thailand and Brazil, with sales jumping as cheaper Chinese models were introduced. In Thailand, for example, Hozon launched its Neta V model in 2022 priced at THB 550 000 (Thai baht) (USD 15 600), which became a best-seller in 2023 given its relative affordability compared with the cheapest ICE equivalents at around USD 9 000. Similarly, in Indonesia, the market entry of Wuling’s Air EV in 2022-2023 was met with great success. In Colombia, the best-selling electric car in 2023 was the Chinese mini-car, Zhidou 2DS, which could be found at around USD 15 000, a competitive option relative to the country’s cheapest ICE car, the Kia Picanto, at USD 13 000.

Electric car sales in selected countries, by origin of carmaker, 2021-2023

Second-hand markets for electric cars are on the rise.

As electric vehicle markets mature, the second-hand market will become more important

In the same way as for other technology products, second-hand markets for used electric cars are now emerging as newer generations of vehicles progressively become available and earlier adopters switch or upgrade. Second-hand markets are critical to foster mass-market adoption, especially if new electric cars remain expensive, and used ones become cheaper. Just as for ICE vehicles – for which buying second-hand is often the primary method of acquiring a car in both emerging and advanced economies – a similar pattern will emerge with electric vehicles. It is estimated that eight out of ten EU citizens buy their car second-hand, and this share is even higher – around 90% – among low- and middle-income groups. Similarly, in the United States, about seven out of ten vehicles sold are second-hand, and only 17% of lower-income households buy a new car.

As major electric car markets reach maturity, more and more used electric cars are becoming available for resale. Our estimates suggest that in 2023, the market size for used electric cars amounted to nearly 800 000 in China , 400 000 in the United States and more than 450 000 for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom combined. Second-hand sales have not been included in the numbers presented in the previous section of this report, which focused on sales of new electric cars, but they are already significant. On aggregate, global second-hand electric car sales were roughly equal to new electric car sales in the United States in 2023. In the United States, used electric car sales are set to increase by 40% in 2024 relative to 2023. Of course, these volumes are dwarfed by second-hand ICE markets: 30 million in the European countries listed above combined, nearly 20 million in China, and 36 million in the United States . However, these markets have had decades to mature, indicating greater longer-term potential for used electric car markets.

Used car markets already provide more affordable electric options in China, Europe and the United States

Second-hand car markets are increasingly becoming a source of more affordable electric cars that can compete with used ICE equivalents. In the United States, for example, more than half of second-hand electric cars are already priced below USD 30 000. Moreover, the average price is expected to quickly fall towards USD 25 000, the price at which used electric cars become eligible for the federal used car rebate of USD 4 000, making them directly competitive with best-selling new and used ICE options. The price of a second-hand Tesla in the United States dropped from over USD 50 000 in early 2023 to just above USD 33 000 in early 2024, making it competitive with a second-hand SUV and many new models as well (either electric or conventional). In Europe , second-hand battery electric cars can be found between EUR 15 000 and EUR 25 000 (USD 16 000‑27 000), and second-hand plug-in hybrids around EUR 30 000 (USD 32 000). Some European countries also offer subsidies for second-hand electric cars, such as the Netherlands (EUR 2 000), where the subsidy for new cars has been steadily declining since 2020, while that for used cars remains constant, and France (EUR 1 000). In China , used electric cars were priced around CNY 75 000 on average in 2023 (USD 11 000).

In recent years, the resale value 8 of electric cars has been increasing. In Europe, the resale value of battery electric cars sold after 12 months has steadily increased over the 2017-2022 period, surpassing that of all other powertrains and standing at more than 70% in mid-2022. The resale value of battery electric cars sold after 36 months stood below 40% in 2017, but has since been closing the gap with other powertrains, reaching around 55% in mid-2022. This is the result of many factors, including higher prices of new electric cars, improving technology allowing vehicles and batteries to retain greater value over time, and increasing demand for second-hand electric cars. Similar trends have been observed in China.

High or low resale values have important implications for the development of second-hand electric car markets and their contributions to the transition to road transport electrification. High resale values primarily benefit consumers of new cars (who retain more of the value of their initial purchase), and carmakers, because many consumers are attracted by the possibility of reselling their car after a few years, thereby fostering demand for newer models. High resale values also benefit leasing companies, which seek to minimise depreciation and resell after a few years.

Leasing companies have a significant impact on second-hand markets because they own large volumes of vehicles for a shorter period (under three years, compared to 3 to 5 years for a private household). Their impact on markets for new cars can also be considerable: leasing companies accounted for over 20% of new cars sold in Europe in 2022.

Overall, a resale value for electric cars on par with or higher than that of ICE equivalents contributes to supporting demand for new electric cars. In the near term, however, a combination of high prices for new electric cars and high resale values could hinder widespread adoption of used EVs among mass-market consumers seeking affordable cars. In such cases, policy support can help bridge the gap with second-hand ICE prices.

International trade for used electric cars to emerging markets is expected to increase

As the EV stock ages in advanced markets, it is likely that more and more used EVs will be traded internationally, assuming that global standards enable technology compatibility (e.g. for charging infrastructure). Imported used vehicles present an opportunity for consumers in EMDEs, who may not have access to new models because they are either too expensive or not marketed in their countries.

Data on used car trade flows are scattered and often contradictory, but the history of ICE cars can be a useful guide to what may happen for electric cars. Many EMDEs have been importing used ICE vehicles for decades. UNEP estimates that Africa imports 40% of all used vehicles exported worldwide, with African countries typically becoming the ultimate destination for used imports. Typical trade flows include Western European Union member states to Eastern European Union member states and to African countries that drive on the right-hand side; Japan to Asia and to African countries that drive on the left-hand side; and the United States to the Middle East and Central America.

Used electric car exports from large EV markets have been growing in recent years. For China, this can be explained by the recent roll-back of a policy forbidding exports of used vehicles of any kind. Since 2019 , as part of a pilot project, the government has granted 27 cities and provinces the right to export second-hand cars. In 2022, China exported almost 70 000 used vehicles, a significant increase on 2021, when fewer than 20 000 vehicles were exported. About 70% of these were NEVs, of which over 45% were exported to the Middle East. In 2023, the Ministry of Commerce released a draft policy on second-hand vehicle export that, once approved, will allow the export of second-hand vehicles from all regions of China. Used car exports from China are expected to increase significantly as a result.

In the European Union, the number of used electric cars traded internationally is also increasing . In both 2021 and 2022, the market size grew by 70% year-on-year, reaching almost 120 000 electric cars in 2022. More than half of all trade takes place between EU member states, followed by trade with neighbouring countries such as Norway, the United Kingdom and Türkiye (accounting for 20% combined). The remainder of used EVs are exported to countries such as Mexico, Tunisia and the United States. As of 2023, the largest exporters are Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain.

Last year, just over 1% of all used cars leaving Japan were electric. However these exports are growing and increased by 30% in 2023 relative to 2022, reaching 20 000 cars. The major second-hand electric car markets for Japanese vehicles are traditionally Russia and New Zealand (over 60% combined). After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, second-hand trade of conventional cars from Japan to Russia jumped sharply following a halt in operations of local OEMs in Russia, but this trade was quickly restricted by the Japanese government, thereby bringing down the price of second-hand cars in Japan. New Zealand has very few local vehicle assembly or manufacturing facilities, and for this reason many cars entering New Zealand are used imports. In 2023, nearly 20% of all electric cars that entered New Zealand were used imports, compared to 50% for the overall car market.

In emerging economies, local policies play an important role in promoting or limiting trade flows for used cars. In the case of ICE vehicles, for example, some countries (e.g. Bolivia, Côte d’Ivoire, Peru) limit the maximum age of used car imports to prevent the dumping of highly polluting cars. Other countries (e.g. Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, India, South Africa) have banned used car imports entirely to protect their domestic manufacturing industries.

Just as for ICE vehicles, policy measures can either help or hinder the import of used electric cars, such as by setting emission standards for imported used cars. Importing countries will also need to simultaneously support roll-out of charging infrastructure to avoid problems with access like those reported in Sri Lanka after an incentive scheme significantly increased imports of used EVs in 2018.

The median age of vehicle imports tends to increase as the GDP per capita of a country decreases. In some African countries, the median age of imports is over 15 years. Beyond this timeframe, electric cars may require specific servicing to extend their lifetime. To support the availability of second-hand markets for electric cars, it will be important to develop strategies, technical capacity, and business models to swap very old batteries from used vehicles. Today, many countries that import ICE vehicles, including EMDEs, already have servicing capacity in place to extend the lifetimes of used ICE vehicles, but not used EVs. On the other hand, there are typically fewer parts in electric powertrains than in ICE ones, and these parts can even be more durable. Battery recycling capacity will also be needed, given that the importing country is likely to be where the imported EV eventually reaches end-of-life. Including end-of-life considerations in policy making today can help mitigate the risk of longer-term environmental harm that could result from the accumulation of obsolete EVs and associated waste in EMDEs.

Policy choices in more mature markets also have an impact on possible trade flows. For example, the current policy framework in the European Union for the circularity of EV batteries may prevent EVs and EV batteries from leaving the European Union, which brings energy security advantages but might limit reuse. In this regard, advanced economies and EMDEs should strengthen co-operation to facilitate second-hand trade while ensuring adequate end-of-life strategies. For example, there could be incentives or allowances associated with extended vehicle lifetimes via use in second-hand markets internationally before recycling, as long as recycling in the destination market is guaranteed, or the EV battery is returned at end of life.

Throughout this report, unless otherwise specified, “electric cars” refers to both battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars, and “electric vehicles” (EVs) refers to battery electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) vehicles, excluding fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). Unless otherwise specified, EVs include all modes of road transport.

Throughout this report, unless otherwise specified, regional groupings refer to those described in the Annex.

In the Chinese context, the term New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) includes BEVs, PHEVs and FCEVs.

Based on model trim eligibility from the US government website as of 31 March 2024.

SUVs may be defined differently across regions, but broadly refer to vehicles that incorporate features commonly found in off-road vehicles (e.g. four-wheel drive, higher ground clearance, larger cargo area). In this report, small and large SUVs both count as SUVs. Crossovers are counted as SUVs if they feature an SUV body type; otherwise they are categorised as medium-sized vehicles.

Measured under the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure using vehicle model sales data from IHS Markit.

Price data points collected from various data providers and ad-hoc sources cover 65-95% of both electric and ICE car sales globally. By “price”, we refer to the advertised price that the customer pays for the acquisition of the vehicle only, including legally required acquisition taxes (e.g. including Value-Added Tax and registration taxes but excluding consumer tax credits). Prices reflect not only the materials, components and manufacturing costs, but also the costs related to sales and marketing, administration, R&D and the profit margin. In the case of a small electric car in Europe, for example, these mark-up costs can account for around 40% of the final pre-tax price. They account for an even greater share of the final pre-tax price when consumers purchase additional options, or opt for larger models, for which margins can be higher. The price for the same model may differ across countries or regions (e.g. in 2023, a VW ID.3 could be purchased in China at half its price in Europe). Throughout the whole section, prices are adjusted for inflation and expressed in constant 2022 USD.

This metric of depreciation used in second-hand technology markets represents the value of the vehicle when being resold in relation to the value when originally purchased. A resale value of 70% means that a product purchased new will lose 30% of its original value, on average, and sell at such a discount relative to the original price.

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Press Release

Macquarie Asset Management launches Vertelo, a new $US 1.5 billion EV fleet solutions platform

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Mumbai, 22 April 2024

• Macquarie Asset Management today launched Vertelo, a new fleet electrification solutions platform focused on accelerating large-scale adoption of electric vehicles in India.
• The new platform has received anchor investment from the Green Climate Fund (GCF). Vertelo plans to mobilise $US1.5 billion in the Indian e-mobility ecosystem over 10 years with the aim to achieve a potential lifetime reduction of ~9.5 MtCO 2 e of greenhouse gas emissions.
• The new business lends support to India’s ambitious electric vehicles target and aligns well with the Indian Government’s vision for mobility revolving around the 7 Cs – Common, Connected, Convenient, Congestion-free, Charged, Clean, and Cutting-edge 1

Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), part of Macquarie Group, has launched Vertelo, a new platform providing end-to-end solutions in fleet electrification in India. The company aims to accelerate the transition of fleets to electric vehicles and build a robust EV ecosystem by offering bespoke solutions to customers including leasing and financing, charging infrastructure and energy solutions, fleet management services, and end of vehicle life management. 

The new platform has received anchor investment from the Green Climate Fund which has committed to invest up to $US200 million. Overall, Vertelo plans to invest $US1.5 billion over 10 years with the aim to achieve a potential greenhouse gas emissions reduction of ~9.5 MtCO2e. 2

The company lends support to India’s ambitious vehicle electrification target of achieving 40% electric buses and 70% electric commercial cars by 2030 3  and aligns well with the Indian government’s vision for mobility in India revolving around the 7 Cs – Common, Connected, Convenient, Congestion-free, Charged, Clean, and Cutting-edge.

As a first step on this journey, Vertelo has signed a long-term lease agreement with Chalo Mobility Pvt Ltd, a leading Indian transport technology company, to supply 44 electric buses manufactured by JBM, a leading electric bus manufacturer in India, to operate in Mumbai. Also, to meet the growing demand of customers, Vertelo has signed agreements with multiple OEMs including JBM and Eka Mobility to buy up to 2,000 electric buses from each partner over the next three to five years and with Tata Motors to buy up to 2,000 electric cars over the next three years.

Abhishek Poddar, India Country Head, Macquarie Group, said: “The transition to electric vehicles will bring significant benefits to India – increasing its energy independence and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Vertelo aims to play a key role in accelerating this transition by making it easy for its customers to realise the benefits of going electric immediately.”

Henry Gonzalez, Green Climate Fund Deputy Executive Director, said: "The platform launched today is a big moment for all involved. It has been designed to speed up the adoption of electric vehicles – buses and commercial fleets – by providing affordable leasing and financing solutions. This will help bring costs down, so electric vehicles can be truly competitive, and people can breathe cleaner, safer air across the country. This investment is the Green Climate Fund's first private-sector transport programme in the e-mobility sector, and we are excited to have provided $US200 million equity capital to support India's e-mobility transition."

The new business will be led by Sandeep Gambhir who previously led the automotive leasing, mobility, and nonbank financial businesses for ORIX India for 11 years.

Sandeep Gambhir, Chief Executive Officer, Vertelo, said: “Vertelo aims to become a larger ecosystem player in the EV mobility landscape through its unique and comprehensive offering that covers the entire lifecycle of the underlying assets including upfront capital solution, charging infrastructure, maintenance and energy management, which helps it to partner with large OEMs, fleet operators, and other corporates, and accelerate fleet electrification in India.”

Mohit Dubey, Co-Founder and CEO, Chalo, said: “We are happy to partner with Vertelo and JBM to add these 44 Chalo buses in Mumbai, taking our fleet to 100 electric luxury AC buses. This is a significant step for Mumbai where Chalo and BEST have partnered to run a luxury bus service for daily commute. Congratulations to the Vertelo team on their launch. We look forward to a long-term sustainable partnership with them.”

Nishant Arya, Vice Chairman, JBM Group, said: “JBM is excited to announce its global strategic partnership with Vertelo to deploy up to 2,000 electric buses over next three to five years, beginning with a sizeable first deployment of 44 electric buses, marking a significant milestone in sustainable mobility. Together, we're shaping the future of zero emission electric public transportation with a commitment to innovation and excellence.”

Vertelo is backed by the Green Climate Fund in partnership with Macquarie Asset Management, part of Macquarie Group. Macquarie Group is one of Australia’s ten largest companies and has been active in India for over 19 years – it has invested over $US2.5 billion in equity capital into Indian infrastructure.

Macquarie Group has been supporting driving practical climate solutions for almost 20 years, with our first investments in renewables dating back to 2005. Macquarie is working to help commercial fleet operators finance the deployment of clean vehicles and charging infrastructure in the US, the Netherlands, Belgium, and the UK. 4  

About Vertelo

Vertelo is helping to redefine transportation for a more sustainable India. Our expertise spans the e-mobility ecosystem and our fleet electrification solutions aim to help accelerate India’s low carbon transition. Find out more at www.vertelo.in

About The Green Climate Fund

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) is the world’s largest dedicated climate fund. GCF’s mandate is to foster a paradigm shift towards low emission, climate-resilient development pathways in developing countries.

GCF has over 250 projects, a portfolio of USD 13.9 billion (USD 53 billion including co-financing) delivering transformative climate action in more than 129 developing countries.

GCF also has a readiness support programme that builds capacity and helps countries develop long-term plans to fight climate change.

GCF is an operating entity of the financial mechanism of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and serves the 2015 Paris Agreement, supporting the goal of keeping average global temperature rise well below 2°C.

• https://www.narendramodi.in/pm-modi-inaugurates-the-global-mobility-summit-2018-541388
• See notes below for methodology.
• https://jmkresearch.com/electric-vehicles-published-reports/accelerating-transport-electrification-in-india-by-2030/
• P9, https://www.macquarie.com/assets/macq/perspectives/macquarie-climate-solutions-brochure.pdf

Methodology for emissions reduction calculation

Emission reductions are based on the business plan at the time of the funding proposal, May 2022. As the EV platform entails funding of both electric vehicles (EVs) and EV charging infrastructure, a combination of two existing peer-reviewed methodologies was used to assess the level of GHG emissions reduced by the platform over the implementation period of 10 years. Both the methodologies are based on the core principles of  Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods  specified under 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, and 2019 IPCC Guidelines Refinement.

Methodology 1,  AMS-III.C.: Emission reductions by electric and hybrid vehicles — Version 15.0  is applicable to Electric vehicles (E-buses, electric light commercial vehicles (like electric trucks), two/three and four wheelers). There is a limitation where this methodology can be used only for small scale projects (projects which reduce GHG emissions less than or equal to 60 ktCO 2  equivalent annually), but given no other viable option, this methodology was used.

Methodology 2,  VM0038 - Methodology for Electric Vehicle Charging Systems, version 1.0  is applicable to EV charging systems, including their associated infrastructure.

The baseline scenario for computation is defined as the GHG emissions reduced due to the replacement of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles across Indian urban and semi-urban setup by funding comparable electric transportation vehicles (i.e. e-buses, e-cars, e-three wheelers and e-two wheelers.) and funding electric charging infrastructure (ECI) to support the operation of comparable electric vehicle fleets.

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Elon Musk heads to China to advocate for autopilot, a week after he postponed India visit: Report

Tesla is grappling with slower growth for electric vehicles in both its main markets of the united states and china. therefore, elon musk's latest visit is seen as a move to boost electronic vehicle sales in the world's second most populous country..

Why did Elon Musk make a surprise visit to China?

Musk is seeking to meet senior Chinese officials in Beijing to discuss the rollout of Full-Self Driving (FSD) software in China and to obtain approval to transfer data collected in the country abroad to train algorithms for its autonomous driving technologies, one of the people said. Tesla has since 2021 stored all data collected by its Chinese fleet in Shanghai as required by Chinese regulators and has not transferred any back to the United States.

The US EV maker rolled out FSD, the most autonomous version of its Autopilot software, four years ago but has yet to make it available in China despite customers urging it to do so. Musk said this month Tesla may make FSD available to customers in China "very soon", in response to a query on social media platform X. Rival Chinese automakers such as Xpeng have been seeking to gain an advantage over Tesla by rolling out similar software.

Elon Musk cancelled India visit 

His trip came a week after Musk cancelled a planned trip to India where he was scheduled to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and was due to announce plans to enter the South Asian market.  Musk in June last year said that he was planning to visit India in 2024, adding that he was confident that the electric carmaker would be in India and would do so "as soon as humanly possible". PM Modi had also extended an invitation to the billionaire to visit India. "I would like to thank PM Modi for his support and hopefully, we will be able to announce something in the future," Musk said at this time.

In November, Union Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal visited Tesla's manufacturing facility in California's Fremont and said that the US electric car maker is on its way to double its components imports from India. Goyal said he was proud to see the growing importance of auto component suppliers from India in the Tesla EV supply chain.

(With inputs from agency)

Also Read: Elon Musk postpones India trip due to 'very heavy Tesla obligations', was scheduled to meet PM Modi

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‘It Is Desolate’: China’s Glut of Unused Car Factories

Manufacturers like BYD, Tesla and Li Auto are cutting prices to move their electric cars. For gasoline-powered vehicles, the surplus of factories is even worse.

By Keith Bradsher

Reporting from Chongqing, China

On the outskirts of Chongqing, western China’s largest city, sits a huge symbol of the country’s glut of car factories. It’s a complex of gray buildings, nearly a square mile in size. The thousands of employees who used to work there have moved on. Its crimson loading docks are closed.

The facility, a former assembly plant and engine factory, had been a joint venture of a Chinese company and Hyundai, the South Korean giant. The complex opened in 2017 with robots and other equipment to make gasoline-powered cars. Hyundai sold the campus late last year for a fraction of the $1.1 billion it took to build and equip it. Unmown grass at the site has already grown knee high.

“It was all highly automated, but now, it is desolate,” said Zhou Zhehui, 24, who works for a rival Chinese automaker, Chang’an, and whose apartment looks down on the former Hyundai complex.

China has more than 100 factories with the capacity to build close to 40 million internal combustion engine cars a year. That is roughly twice as many as people in China want to buy, and sales of these cars are dropping fast as electric vehicles become more popular.

Last month, for the first time, sales of battery-electric and plug-in gasoline-electric hybrid cars together surpassed those of gasoline-powered cars in China’s 35 largest cities.

Dozens of gasoline-powered vehicle factories are barely running or have already been mothballed.

The country’s auto industry is near the start of an E.V. transition that is expected to last years and eventually claim many of those factories. How China manages that long change will influence its future economic growth, since the auto sector is so big and could transform its work force.

The stakes are great for the rest of the world, too.

China, the world’s largest car market, became the largest exporter last year, having passed Japan and Germany. China’s auto sales abroad are exploding.

Three-quarters of China’s exported cars are gasoline-powered models that the domestic market no longer needs, said Bill Russo, an electric car consultant in Shanghai. Those exports threaten to flatten producers elsewhere.

At the same time, China’s electric vehicle companies are still investing heavily in new factories. BYD and other automakers are expected to introduce more electric models at the opening of the Beijing auto show on Thursday.

Electric car sales in China are still growing. But the pace of growth has halved since last summer, as consumer spending has faltered in China because of a housing market crisis.

“There is a slowdown trend, especially for pure electric vehicles,” said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association.

China also has overcapacity in electric vehicle manufacturing, although less than for gasoline-powered cars. Price cutting for electric vehicles is common. Li Auto, a fast-growing Chinese manufacturer, reduced its prices on Monday. Tesla did the same a day earlier, and on Tuesday reported a large decline in profits during the first three months of this year. BYD, the industry leader in China , made price cuts in February. Volkswagen and General Motors have also lowered E.V. prices in China this year.

Automakers with factories close to China’s coast are exporting gasoline-powered cars. But many of the endangered factories are in cities deep inside the country, like Chongqing, where high transport costs to the coast make it too expensive to export.

Almost all of China’s electric cars are assembled at newly built factories, which qualify for subsidies from municipal governments and state-directed banks. It’s cheaper for automakers to build new factories than to convert existing ones. The result has been enormous overcapacity.

“The Chinese auto industry is experiencing a revolution,” said John Zeng, the director of Asia forecasting at GlobalData Automotive. “The old internal combustion capacity is dying.”

Sales of gasoline-powered cars plummeted to 17.7 million last year from 28.3 million in 2017, the year that Hyundai opened its Chongqing complex. That drop is equivalent to the entire European Union car market last year, or all of the United States’ annual car and light truck production.

Hyundai’s sales in China have plunged 69 percent since 2017. The company put the factory up for sale last summer, but no other automaker wanted it. Hyundai ended up selling the land, the buildings and much of the equipment back to a municipal development company in Chongqing for just $224 million, or 20 cents on the dollar.

The municipal company said this year, while seeking insurance on the site, that it did not have a new tenant.

Other multinational automakers have reduced output in China. Ford Motor has three factories in Chongqing that have been running at a tiny fraction of their capacity for the past five years .

Hyundai is one of the very few automakers, mostly foreign, that have halted production entirely at some locations, although the company still has three factories in China.

“There doesn’t seem to be a concerted effort to shut down excess capacity, but more of a shift from foreign owned to Chinese owned,” said Michael Dunne, a former president of General Motors Indonesia.

The longstanding benchmark is that car factories should run at 80 percent of capacity, or more, to be efficient and make money. But with new electric car factories opening and few older factories closing, capacity utilization across the entire industry fell to 65 percent in the first three months of this year from 75 percent last year and 80 percent or more before the Covid-19 pandemic, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Without a big burst of exports last year, the industry would have operated even further below full capacity.

Chinese manufacturers, many of them partly or entirely owned by city governments, have been reluctant to reduce output and cut jobs. Chang’an, a state-owned carmaker, has a factory just a 20-minute walk down pink-bougainvillea-lined lanes from the former Hyundai complex. The factory’s many acres of parking were completely full of unsold cars on Sunday.

Cities that are particularly dependent on gasoline-powered car production, like Chongqing, face a jobs dilemma. Assembling electric vehicles requires considerably fewer workers than making gasoline-powered cars, because E.V.s have much fewer components.

Workers with strong technical backgrounds, particularly in robotics , can easily and quickly find jobs if they’re laid off, autoworkers in Chongqing said in interviews. But semiskilled workers — including those who are older and have not taken training courses to develop their abilities — are now finding it more difficult to obtain work.

Mr. Zhou said that when he applied for his job at Chang’an, “it was a fierce competition.”

Still, it is extremely hard to find unemployed former Hyundai workers in Chongqing these days, even in the neighborhood of the former factory.

Most factory workers in China are migrants who grew up in rural areas and have few connections to the communities where gasoline-powered cars have been built. So they can easily move to other cities or industries when they lose jobs.

Yet a tinge of gloom hangs over the car industry in Chongqing, as demand slows and less skilled workers have fewer opportunities to earn overtime pay. Hyundai’s signage is still visible in many places at its former factory, but a large shadow on the front gate shows where an optimistic slogan used to hang: “New Thinking, New Possibilities.”

Li You contributed research.

Keith Bradsher is the Beijing bureau chief for The Times. He previously served as bureau chief in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Detroit and as a Washington correspondent. He has lived and reported in mainland China through the pandemic. More about Keith Bradsher