climate change dbq essay

6.4 Annotated Student Sample: “Slowing Climate Change” by Shawn Krukowski

Learning outcomes.

By the end of this section, you will be able to:

• Identify the features common to proposals.
• Analyze the organizational structure of a proposal and how writers develop ideas.
• Articulate how writers use and cite evidence to build credibility.
• Identify sources of evidence within a text and in source citations.

Introduction

The proposal that follows was written by student Shawn Krukowski for a first-year composition course. Shawn’s assignment was to research a contemporary problem and propose one or more solutions. Deeply concerned about climate change, Shawn chose to research ways to slow the process. In his proposal, he recommends two solutions he thinks are most promising.

Living by Their Own Words

A call to action.

student sample text The earth’s climate is changing. Although the climate has been changing slowly for the past 22,000 years, the rate of change has increased dramatically. Previously, natural climate changes occurred gradually, sometimes extending over thousands of years. Since the mid-20th century, however, climate change has accelerated exponentially, a result primarily of human activities, and is reaching a crisis level. end student sample text

student sample text Critical as it is, however, climate change can be controlled. Thanks to current knowledge of science and existing technologies, it is possible to respond effectively. Although many concerned citizens, companies, and organizations in the private sector are taking action in their own spheres, other individuals, corporations, and organizations are ignoring, or even denying, the problem. What is needed to slow climate change is unified action in two key areas—mitigation and adaptation—spurred by government leadership in the United States and a global commitment to addressing the problem immediately. end student sample text

annotated text Introduction. The proposal opens with an overview of the problem and pivots to the solution in the second paragraph. end annotated text

annotated text Thesis Statement. The thesis statement in last sentence of the introduction previews the organization of the proposal and the recommended solutions. end annotated text

Problem: Negative Effects of Climate Change

annotated text Heading. Centered, boldface headings mark major sections of the proposal. end annotated text

annotated text Body. The three paragraphs under this heading discuss the problem. end annotated text

annotated text Topic Sentence. The paragraph opens with a sentence stating the topics developed in the following paragraphs. end annotated text

student sample text For the 4,000 years leading up to the Industrial Revolution, global temperatures remained relatively constant, with a few dips of less than 1°C. Previous climate change occurred so gradually that life forms were able to adapt to it. Some species became extinct, but others survived and thrived. In just the past 100 years, however, temperatures have risen by approximately the same amount that they rose over the previous 4,000 years. end student sample text

annotated text Audience. Without knowing for sure the extent of readers’ knowledge of climate change, the writer provides background for them to understand the problem. end annotated text

student sample text The rapid increase in temperature has a negative global impact. First, as temperatures rise, glaciers and polar ice are melting at a faster rate; in fact, by the middle of this century, the Arctic Ocean is projected to be ice-free in summer. As a result, global sea levels are projected to rise from two to four feet by 2100 (U.S. Global Change Research Program [USGCRP], 2014a). If this rise actually does happen, many coastal ecosystems and human communities will disappear. end student sample text

annotated text Discussion of the Problem. The first main point of the problem is discussed in this paragraph. end annotated text

annotated text Statistics as Evidence. The writer provides specific numbers and cites the source in APA style. end annotated text

annotated text Transitions . The writer uses transitions here (first, as a result , and second in the next paragraph) and elsewhere to make connections between ideas and to enable readers to follow them more easily. At the same time, the transitions give the proposal coherence. end annotated text

student sample text Second, weather of all types is becoming more extreme: heat waves are hotter, cold snaps are colder, and precipitation patterns are changing, causing longer droughts and increased flooding. Oceans are becoming more acidic as they increase their absorption of carbon dioxide. This change affects coral reefs and other marine life. Since the 1980s, hurricanes have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration. As shown in Figure 6.5, the 2020 hurricane season was the most active on record, with 30 named storms, a recording-breaking 11 storms hitting the U.S. coastline (compared to 9 in 1916), and 10 named storms in September—the highest monthly number on record. Together, these storms caused more than $40 billion in damage. Not only was this the fifth consecutive above-normal hurricane season, it was preceded by four consecutive above-normal years in 1998 to 2001 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2020). end student sample text

annotated text Discussion of the Problem. The second main point of the problem is discussed in this paragraph. end annotated text

annotated text Visual as Evidence. The writer refers to “Figure 6.4” in the text and places the figure below the paragraph. end annotated text

annotated text Source Citation in APA Style: Visual. The writer gives the figure a number, a title, an explanatory note, and a source citation. The source is also cited in the list of references. end annotated text

Solutions: Mitigation and Adaptation

annotated text Heading. The centered, boldface heading marks the start of the solutions section of the proposal. end annotated text

annotated text Body. The eight paragraphs under this heading discuss the solutions given in the thesis statement. end annotated text

student sample text To control the effects of climate change, immediate action in two key ways is needed: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigating climate change by reducing and stabilizing the carbon emissions that produce greenhouse gases is the only long-term way to avoid a disastrous future. In addition, adaptation is imperative to allow ecosystems, food systems, and development to become more sustainable. end student sample text

student sample text Mitigation and adaptation will not happen on their own; action on such a vast scale will require governments around the globe to take initiatives. The United States needs to cooperate with other nations and assume a leadership role in fighting climate change. end student sample text

annotated text Objective Stance. The writer presents evidence (facts, statistics, and examples) in neutral, unemotional language, which builds credibility, or ethos, with readers. end annotated text

annotated text Heading. The flush-left, boldface heading marks the first subsection of the solutions. end annotated text

annotated text Topic Sentence. The paragraph opens with a sentence stating the solution developed in the following paragraphs. end annotated text

student sample text The first challenge is to reduce the flow of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The Union of Concerned Scientists (2020) warns that “net zero” carbon emissions—meaning that no more carbon enters the atmosphere than is removed—needs to be reached by 2050 or sooner. As shown in Figure 6.6, reducing carbon emissions will require a massive effort, given the skyrocketing rate of increase of greenhouse gases since 1900 (USGCRP, 2014b). end student sample text

annotated text Synthesis. In this paragraph, the writer synthesizes factual evidence from two sources and cites them in APA style. end annotated text

annotated text Visual as Evidence. The writer refers to “Figure 6.5” in the text and places the figure below the paragraph. end annotated text

student sample text Significant national policy changes must be made and must include multiple approaches; here are two areas of concern: end student sample text

annotated text Presentation of Solutions. For clarity, the writer numbers the two items to be discussed. end annotated text

student sample text 1. Transportation systems. In the United States in 2018, more than one-quarter—28.2 percent—of emissions resulted from the consumption of fossil fuels for transportation. More than half of these emissions came from passenger cars, light-duty trucks, sport utility vehicles, and minivans (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2020). Priorities for mitigation should include using fuels that emit less carbon; improving fuel efficiency; and reducing the need for travel through urban planning, telecommuting and videoconferencing, and biking and pedestrian initiatives. end student sample text

annotated text Source Citation in APA Style: Group Author. The parenthetical citation gives the group’s name, an abbreviation to be used in subsequent citations, and the year of publication. end annotated text

student sample text Curtailing travel has a demonstrable effect. Scientists have recorded a dramatic drop in emissions during government-imposed travel and business restrictions in 2020. Intended to slow the spread of COVID-19, these restrictions also decreased air pollution significantly. For example, during the first six weeks of restrictions in the San Francisco Bay area, traffic was reduced by about 45 percent, and emissions were roughly a quarter lower than the previous six weeks. Similar findings were observed around the globe, with reductions of up to 80 percent (Bourzac, 2020). end student sample text

annotated text Source Citation in APA Style: One Author. The parenthetical citation gives the author’s name and the year of publication. end annotated text

student sample text 2. Energy production. The second-largest source of emissions is the use of fossil fuels to produce energy, primarily electricity, which accounted for 26.9 percent of U.S. emissions (EPA, 2020). Fossil fuels can be replaced by solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal sources. Solar voltaic systems have the potential to become the least expensive energy in the world (Green America, 2020). Solar sources should be complemented by wind power, which tends to increase at night when the sun is absent. According to the Copenhagen Consensus, the most effective way to combat climate change is to increase investment in green research and development (Lomborg, 2020). Notable are successes in the countries of Morocco and The Gambia, both of which have committed to investing in national programs to limit emissions primarily by generating electricity from renewable sources (Mulvaney, 2019). end student sample text

annotated text Synthesis. The writer develops the paragraph by synthesizing evidence from four sources and cites them in APA style. end annotated text

student sample text A second way to move toward net zero is to actively remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Forests and oceans are so-called “sinks” that collect and store carbon (EPA, 2020). Tropical forests that once made up 12 percent of global land masses now cover only 5 percent, and the loss of these tropical forest sinks has caused 16 to 19 percent of greenhouse gas emissions (Green America, 2020). Worldwide reforestation is vital and demands both commitment and funding on a global scale. New technologies also allow “direct air capture,” which filers carbon from the air, and “carbon capture,” which prevents it from leaving smokestacks. end student sample text

student sample text All of these technologies should be governmentally supported and even mandated, where appropriate. end student sample text

annotated text Synthesis. The writer develops the paragraph by synthesizing evidence from two sources and cites them in APA style. end annotated text

annotated text Heading. The flush-left, boldface heading marks the second subsection of the solutions. end annotated text

student sample text Historically, civilizations have adapted to climate changes, sometimes successfully, sometimes not. Our modern civilization is largely the result of climate stability over the past 12,000 years. However, as the climate changes, humans must learn to adapt on a national, community, and individual level in many areas. While each country sets its own laws and regulations, certain principles apply worldwide. end student sample text

student sample text 1. Infrastructure. Buildings—residential, commercial, and industrial—produce about 33 percent of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide (Biello, 2007). Stricter standards for new construction, plus incentives for investing in insulation and other improvements to existing structures, are needed. Development in high-risk areas needs to be discouraged. Improved roads and transportation systems would help reduce fuel use. Incentives for decreasing energy consumption are needed to reduce rising demands for power. end student sample text

student sample text 2. Food waste. More than 30 percent of the food produced in the United States is never consumed, and food waste causes 44 gigatons of carbon emissions a year (Green America, 2020). In a landfill, the nutrients in wasted food never return to the soil; instead, methane, a greenhouse gas, is produced. High-income countries such as the United States need to address wasteful processing and distribution systems. Low-income countries, on the other hand, need an infrastructure that supports proper food storage and handling. Educating consumers also must be a priority. end student sample text

annotated text Source Citation in APA Style: Group Author. The parenthetical citation gives the group’s name and the year of publication. end annotated text

student sample text 3. Consumerism. People living in consumer nations have become accustomed to abundance. Many purchases are nonessential yet consume fossil fuels to manufacture, package, market, and ship products. During World War II, the U.S. government promoted the slogan “Use It Up, Wear It Out, Make It Do, or Do Without.” This attitude was widely accepted because people recognized a common purpose in the war effort. A similar shift in mindset is needed today. end student sample text

student sample text Adaptation is not only possible but also economically advantageous. One case study is Walmart, which is the world’s largest company by revenue. According to Dearn (2020), the company announced a plan to reduce its global emissions to zero by 2040. Among the goals is powering its facilities with 100 percent renewable energy and using electric vehicles with zero emissions. As of 2020, about 29 percent of its energy is from renewable sources. Although the 2040 goal applies to Walmart facilities only, plans are underway to reduce indirect emissions, such as those from its supply chain. According to CEO Doug McMillon, the company’s commitment is to “becoming a regenerative company—one that works to restore, renew and replenish in addition to preserving our planet, and encourages others to do the same” (Dearn, 2020). In addition to encouraging other corporations, these goals present a challenge to the government to take action on climate change. end student sample text

annotated text Extended Example as Evidence. The writer indicates where borrowed information from the source begins and ends, and cites the source in APA style. end annotated text

annotated text Source Citation in APA Style: One Author. The parenthetical citation gives only the year of publication because the author’s name is cited in the sentence. end annotated text

Objections to Taking Action

annotated text Heading. The centered, boldface heading marks the start of the writer’s discussion of potential objections to the proposed solutions. end annotated text

annotated text Body. The writer devotes two paragraphs to objections. end annotated text

student sample text Despite scientific evidence, some people and groups deny that climate change is real or, if they admit it exists, insist it is not a valid concern. Those who think climate change is not a problem point to Earth’s millennia-long history of changing climate as evidence that life has always persisted. However, their claims do not consider the difference between “then” and “now.” Most of the change predates human civilization, which has benefited from thousands of years of stable climate. The rapid change since the Industrial Revolution is unprecedented in human history. end student sample text

student sample text Those who deny climate change or its dangers seek primarily to relax or remove pollution standards and regulations in order to protect, or maximize profit from, their industries. To date, their lobbying has been successful. For example, the world’s fossil-fuel industry received $5.3 trillion in 2015 alone, while the U.S. wind-energy industry received $12.3 billion in subsidies between 2000 and 2020 (Green America, 2020). end student sample text

Conclusion and Recommendation

annotated text Heading. The centered, boldface heading marks the start of the conclusion and recommendation. end annotated text

annotated text Conclusion and Recommendation. The proposal concludes with a restatement of the proposed solutions and a call to action. end annotated text

student sample text Greenhouse gases can be reduced to acceptable levels; the technology already exists. But that technology cannot function without strong governmental policies prioritizing the environment, coupled with serious investment in research and development of climate-friendly technologies. end student sample text

student sample text The United States government must place its full support behind efforts to reduce greenhouse gasses and mitigate climate change. Rejoining the Paris Agreement is a good first step, but it is not enough. Citizens must demand that their elected officials at the local, state, and national levels accept responsibility to take action on both mitigation and adaptation. Without full governmental support, good intentions fall short of reaching net-zero emissions and cannot achieve the adaptation in attitude and lifestyle necessary for public compliance. There is no alternative to accepting this reality. Addressing climate change is too important to remain optional. end student sample text

Biello, D. (2007, May 25). Combatting climate change: Farming out global warming solutions. Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/combating-climate-change-farming-forestry/

Bourzac, K. (2020, September 25). COVID-19 lockdowns had strange effects on air pollution across the globe. Chemical & Engineering News. https://cen.acs.org/environment/atmospheric-chemistry/COVID-19-lockdowns-had-strange-effects-on-air-pollution-across-the-globe/98/i37

Dearn, G. (2020, September 21). Walmart said it will eliminate its carbon footprint by 2040 — but not for its supply chain, which makes up the bulk of its emissions. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-targets-zero-carbon-emissions-2040-not-suppliers-2020-9

Green America (2020). Top 10 solutions to reverse climate change. https://www.greenamerica.org/climate-change-100-reasons-hope/top-10-solutions-reverse-climate-change.

Lomborg, B. (2020, July 17). The alarm about climate change is blinding us to sensible solutions. The Globe and Mail. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-alarm-about-climate-change-is-blinding-us-to-sensible-solutions/

Mulvaney, K. (2019, September 19). Climate change report card: These countries are reaching targets. National Geographic . https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/09/climate-change-report-card-co2-emissions/

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2020, November 24). Record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/record-breaking-atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-end

Union of Concerned Scientists (2020). Climate solutions. https://www.ucsusa.org/climate/solutions

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2020). Sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse Gas Emissions. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions

U.S. Global Change Research Program (2014a). Melting ice. National Climate Assessment. https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/melting-ice

U.S. Global Change Research Program (2014b). Our changing climate. National Climate Assessment. https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights/report-findings/our-changing-climate#tab1-images

annotated text References Page in APA Style. All sources cited in the text of the report—and only those sources—are listed in alphabetical order with full publication information. See the Handbook for more on APA documentation style. end annotated text

The following link takes you to another model of an annotated sample paper on solutions to animal testing posted by the University of Arizona’s Global Campus Writing Center.

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Friday essay: ‘mourning cannot be an endpoint’ – James Bradley on living in an Age of Emergency

Honorary Associate, Sydney Environment Centre, The University of Sydney., University of Sydney

Disclosure statement

James Bradley was the recipient of the Copyright Agency Non-Fiction Fellowship for 2020.

University of Sydney provides funding as a member of The Conversation AU.

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One morning in September 2023 I leave my home and drive to the beach. Although it is early, the day is already unseasonably warm, the sky hazy with smoke from hazard-reduction burns to the south and north of the city.

Despite the weather the beach is quiet. Walking to the water’s edge I wade out and dive, then stroke outwards until my breath gives out and I surface with a gasp. Although I have not swum all that far, I am already out past the break, so instead of heading on I turn back towards the beach and tread water slowly. Closer in, a few people are waiting for the waves that roll in now and then, behind me three or four swimmers are stroking their way across the bay, but otherwise I am alone.

There is something very particular about looking back towards the shore from deeper water. When I was younger, and my friends and I would slip away from work in the late afternoons to surf, I always loved drifting out beyond the break as evening approached – the way the colour would bleed out of the world, until it was just you and the movement of the swell. Today, though, it seems enough to just float here.

I suppose that in some part of myself I am taking stock. The past few years have had many challenges, not just the disruptions of the pandemic and its effects on my children, but also other losses, in the form of family illness and death, all of which have left me older, less confident, more aware of the constant proximity of disaster.

The world has also been transformed. Amid the convulsions of COVID, a hastening wave of calamity has made it clear that the first stages of climate breakdown are upon us. After three years in which floods, heatwaves, fires and storms devastated communities and ecosystems around the world, July and August 2023 were the hottest months ever recorded . In Asia, Europe, North America and North Africa, records have been shattered over and over again .

Sanbao in China hit 52.2°C; near the Arctic Circle in Canada temperatures reached almost 38°C; and in Phoenix in the United States, where temperatures exceeded 43°C for 30 days straight, hospitals were crowded with people who had suffered burns from falling onto the pavement .

Fires consumed tens of millions of hectares of forest in Canada, Russia, Greece, Spain, Algeria and even Hawaii, while floods and storms have devastated communities across Asia, Europe and North Africa. Meanwhile, ocean temperatures have also moved into uncharted territory , rising half a degree above previous records in the North Atlantic and reaching more than 38°C off Florida , with catastrophic implications for corals and other marine organisms in the region.

Some have taken to calling this wave of rolling disaster the new normal. But what the world has experienced over the past months and years is not a new normal – it is just the beginning. Combined with the legacies of centuries of colonial violence and extractive processes, the reckless burning of fossil fuels has pushed the planet into a dangerously unstable new state. We now live in an Age of Emergency that will not end in my lifetime.

Read more: Burning fossil fuels is responsible for most sea-level rise since 1970

The brutal reality is that the world has already heated 1.2°C, and in 2023 at least, has already temporarily exceeded 1.5°C of heating, increasing the possibility we may crash through the 1.5°C guardrail within a decade . Even if implemented in full, the emission-reduction targets announced to date by nations around the world will not prevent this; instead they place the planet on a path to 2°C of heating. The level of real-world action falls even further short of what is needed, committing the world to a temperature increase of 2.5–3°C by the end of the century.

A temperature rise of just 2°C will have catastrophic effects on the planet and human life. Heatwaves and extreme weather events will increase significantly. More than half the world’s population will be affected by water scarcity. Food production will decline markedly, especially in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and Central and South America. The distribution and incidence of tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue fever will increase significantly.

The impacts on the non-human world will be even more drastic. Extinction rates will soar. Collapses in insect populations will accelerate, severely disrupting ecosystems and food production. Coral reefs will all but disappear. Warming and acidifying waters will severely impact the fisheries that provide one-third of the world with their principal source of protein.

Worse yet, with each fraction of a degree of heating, the likelihood of sudden and non-linear change increases. In 2008 scientists identified nine global tipping points, boundaries beyond which the process of change becomes self-perpetuating, leading to rapid and irreversible breakdown. In 2022 a new study added seven more regional tipping points , and produced evidence suggesting we may have already pushed the planet past the threshold of five of them.

The effects of this process are already transforming the world. More than half of the 60 million internally displaced people who were forced to flee their homes in 2022 did so as a result of natural disasters such as cyclones, flooding and drought . In the words of United Nations secretary-general António Guterres, without rapid action to curb emissions and reshape the world economy we face “a mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale”, and “ ever-fiercer competition for freshwater, land and other resources”.

This crisis is so immense, so complex and so seemingly intractable, that it sometimes seems impossible to make sense of. But the ocean provides a way of thinking about these questions, of seeing the currents and tidal forces that have borne us here, the way the waves of migration and encounter and exploitation flow across continents and timescales. Attempting to comprehend its immensity and fluid multiplicity alters us, making it possible to glimpse new continuities and connections.

Simultaneously, though, the ocean reveals that the roots of the crisis we inhabit lie deep in the patterns of violent exploitation and extraction that have shaped the modern world.

For those like myself who are the beneficiaries of these historical processes, acknowledging the truth of this violence and its legacies can be confronting, but it is necessary. As the late Sven Lindqvist observes in his interrogation of the racist and genocidal foundations of European imperialism , “It is not knowledge we lack. It is the courage to understand what we know and draw conclusions.”

In other words, the path through involves more than just a shift in energy sources. It begins in a reckoning with the past, and demands a far more fundamental reorganisation of the global economy, a shift to a model that operates within planetary boundaries and shares resources for the benefit of all. The technological and economic tools necessary to achieve this already exist; what is needed is for those solutions to be put in place.

Such a shift is not impossible. The body of economic and social theory outlining how such a world might operate is extensive. Social experiments exploring sustainable systems are underway in cities and communities around the world. Treaties and agreements to control the spread of plastics, and to address problems such as overfishing and pollution, the burning of fossil fuels and other destructive activities, are gradually being brought into being.

Read more: We now have a treaty governing the high seas. Can it protect the Wild West of the oceans?

There is also increasing recognition of the need for adaptation and support for poorer nations . These reforms have not come from nowhere: they are the result of decades of sacrifice by activists, scientists and local and Indigenous communities.

These victories are only a beginning. The influence of fossil fuel companies and other corporations over governments continues, as the increasing use of state power to curtail protest makes clear . The wealth of the richest continues to grow, as does the rate at which industrialised society is burning through the planet’s reserves. But while these forces can seem overwhelming, unstoppable, they are not.

Read more: ‘Draconian and undemocratic’: why criminalising climate protesters in Australia doesn't actually work

Only a few years ago, the world was on track for temperature rises of 4°C or more. The fact the temperature increases currently predicted are only slightly more than half that is partly the result of a dizzyingly fast uptake of green technologies.

But it is also a testament to the environmental movement’s tireless efforts to force governments and corporations to alter course, and a reminder that the transformation that is needed will come to pass only through campaigns of mass engagement and civil disobedience.

Beauty and astonishment

So much is being lost, and so fast, it is difficult not to feel deranged by it. How do we make sense of the disappearance of coral reefs, of dying kelp and collapsing ecosystems? How do we imagine a world in which the massing life that once inhabited not just the oceans but the earth and the sky is largely gone?

One solution is to simply turn away. The cognitive dissonance of this choice is all around us, as visible in the insistence of politicians that it is possible to keep burning fossil fuels as in the increasingly frantic displays of wealth by the powerful. At a more practical level it is also simply delaying the inevitable: if the past few years have taught us anything, it is that nobody is safe. But it is also to do a kind of violence, for by denying the reality of what is going on we do violence to ourselves, by cauterising our capacity for empathy and grief.

The other alternative, to try to accommodate what is happening, is a far more confronting prospect. The anthropologist and philosopher Deborah Bird Rose, who died in 2018, wrote of the impossibility of bridging the gap between our limited ability to affect what is taking place around ourselves and the cost of facing it.

Yet she also recognised that to turn our backs to it was also to turn our backs on ourselves. “To face others is to become a witness, and to experience our incapacity in this position.” It is also an ethical imperative, a way to “remain true to the lives within which ours are entangled, whether or not we can effect great change”.

To bear witness in this way is to make ourselves vulnerable, to open ourselves up to loss and sadness. Nonetheless, as the philosopher Thom van Dooren has observed , it is also an act of hope, a refusal to ignore the bonds of care that connect us to the world around us. And, perhaps no less importantly, it embodies a preparedness to absorb the lessons of history and to recognise the reality of the past.

More than that, however, the act of openness creates the possibility of love and joy and – improbably – wonder.

However much has been lost, the world still hums with beauty and astonishment. We share the planet with whales that sing across oceans and navigate by watching the stars, with fish that pass ways of knowing across generations, in webs of culture spreading back millions of years, with turtles that follow invisible patterns of magnetism back to the beaches where they were born.

Read more: Space tracking reveals turtles' record-breaking ocean swim

To contemplate the strangeness and wonder of these other ways of being is to begin to understand our place in the world very differently, to be reminded that we are not separate, or different, but part of a much larger system of impossible magnificence and complexity.

No less importantly, it is to recognise that despair is also a form of turning away. A few months ago I spoke to a scientist in Tasmania who is working to regenerate the giant kelp that has been almost wiped out by rising temperatures by selectively breeding specimens that have demonstrated higher thermal tolerance.

While we were talking, he grew emotional as he conceded it was possible the seemingly unstoppable upward arc of ocean temperatures will wipe out even these more thermally tolerant species. Yet, like the scientists working to save coral reefs, he said he did not know what else he could do.

The hope he described is a fragile thing but it is also an investment in the future, a refusal to give up. It offers a reminder that mourning cannot be an endpoint. Instead, grief must be part of a larger recognition that there is no longer any way back, that the only route now is forward. That we must find ways to live in a world on fire. And ways to fight that will ensure the survival of all.

The storm that is upon us will leave nobody untouched. Surviving it demands we build a world that treats everybody – human and non-human – as worthy of life and possibility.

I have times when I think it is possible to see that world taking shape in the distance. Times when it is possible to convince myself we will get there because we have no choice. Because however much is lost, there is still more to save.

I turn to look out to the horizon, its fading margin between sea and sky a space of grief, but also possibility. Around me the water extends outwards, its embrace holding me, its fluidity connecting me to the planet’s systems, to myriad other lives – past, present and future. And putting my face down I start to swim, outwards, towards the unknown.

This is an edited extract from Deep Water: the world in the ocean by James Bradley (Hamish Hamilton).

• Climate change
• Friday essay
• Climate grief

Sydney Horizon Educators (Identified)

Communications and Events Officer

Lecturer (Hindi-Urdu)

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Opportunities with the new CIEHF

Climate Change

Climate change facts: answers to common questions.

This page answers some of the most commonly asked questions about climate change and its impacts. Click on the questions below to view the answers. 

Yes. All major scientific agencies of the United States—including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—agree that climate change is occurring and that humans are contributing to it. In the 2014 National Climate Assessment, the Global Change Research Program concluded that "global climate is changing and this is apparent across the United States in a wide range of observations. The global warming of the past 50 years is primarily due to human activities, predominantly the burning of fossil fuels." [1] Hundreds of independent and governmental scientific organizations have released similar statements, both in the United States and worldwide. [1] [2] [3] Multiple analyses of peer-reviewed science literature have repeatedly shown that more than 97 percent of scientists in the field agree that the world is unequivocally warming, and that human activity is the primary cause. [3]  

This broad consensus that climate change is happening and is caused primarily by excess greenhouse gases from human activities is based on multiple lines of evidence, from basic physics to the patterns of change through the climate system (including the atmosphere, oceans, land, biosphere, and cryosphere). However, this doesn't necessarily mean that every scientist agrees on every component of the climate change problem. Scientists are still researching a number of important questions, including exactly how sensitive Earth's climate is to human emissions of various heat-trapping gases, what the consequences of warming will be in specific regions of the world, and how other future changes in oceans and clouds will affect climate change. Scientists continue to research these questions so society can be better informed about how to plan for a changing climate. However, enough certainty exists about basic causes and effects of climate change to justify taking actions that reduce risks.

» Learn more about climate change science . » Read NASA's web page, Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming . 

Our understanding of climate change is based on multiple lines of evidence, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans, and is documented by hundreds of studies conducted by thousands of scientists around the world. We know how our climate has changed because of the physics of how our Earth system works, modeled simulations of past and future changes, and observations of recent trends in climate change indicators. For instance, records dating back to the 1800s show that the global average temperature increased by more than 1.5°F over the last century. [4] Every year since 1977 has had an average global temperature warmer than the 20th century average. In fact, 15 of the 16 warmest years on record have occurred since the beginning of the 21st century. [5]  No matter how you look at the data, higher global average temperatures in recent years are unambiguous.

Rising global temperatures are just one of the many indicators of climate change. Snow and rainfall patterns are shifting, and more extreme weather events, like heat waves and heavy rainstorms , are already taking place. The planet's oceans and glaciers have also experienced changes: oceans are warming and becoming more acidic , ice caps are melting , and sea levels are rising . The sum total of these and other indicators are evidence that our world is getting warmer.

» Learn more about the indicators of climate change .

Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities are primarily responsible for recent climate changes. First, basic physics shows that increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere will cause the climate to warm. Second, modeling studies show that when human influences are removed from the equation, the global climate would have actually cooled slightly over the past half century. And third, the pattern of warming through the layers of the atmosphere demonstrates that human-induced heat-trapping gases are responsible, rather than some natural change.

The Earth does go through natural cycles of warming and cooling, caused by factors such as changes in the sun or volcanic activity. These factors have been closely examined, and the warming we have seen in the past 50 years cannot be explained by natural factors alone. Records from ice cores, tree rings, and other forms of "natural thermometers" show that recent climate change is unusually rapid compared to past changes. Global temperatures over the last 100 years are unusually high when compared to temperatures over the last several thousand years, and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are currently higher than at any time in at least the last 800,000 years. [6]  Human influences on the climate system — including greenhouse gas emissions, atmospheric particulates, and land-use and land-cover change — are required to explain recent changes. This figure illustrates one piece of evidence that shows that recent global warming is primarily a result of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.

» Learn more about the  causes of climate change .

Carbon dioxide is a necessary ingredient for plants to perform photosynthesis, and a critical component of our atmosphere. However, you can have too much of a good thing. The excess carbon dioxide we are adding to the atmosphere increases global temperatures, leading to climate changes that can harm plants, animals, and humans.

» Learn more about the impacts of climate change on human health ,  society , and ecosystems .

Changing the average global temperature by even a degree or two can lead to serious consequences around the globe. For about every 2°F of warming, we can expect to see

• 5 – 15% reductions in the yields of crops as currently grown.
• 3 – 10% increases in the amount of rain falling during the heaviest precipitation events, which can increase flooding risks.
• 5 – 10% decreases in stream flow in some river basins, including the Arkansas and the Rio Grande.
• 200% – 400% increases in the area burned by wildfire in parts of the western United States. [7]

Global average temperatures have increased more than 1.5°F since 1880. [4] Many of the extreme precipitation and heat events that we have seen in recent years are consistent with what we would expect given this amount of warming. Increases in average global temperatures are expected to be between 0.5 and 8.6°F by 2100, with a likely increase of at least 2.7°F, depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted in the future. [3]

» Learn more about the future of climate change . » Learn about projected climate change action with, and without, global action on climate change, and the benefits to the United States of global action .

No. A few extra cold or snowy winters in your hometown don't mean that global warming isn't happening. We know that global average temperatures are rising. However, even with this global warming we can expect to have some colder-than-average seasons or even colder-than-average years at the local or regional level. For example, in the eastern United States, the winters of 2010 and 2011 were colder than the average winters from the previous decades. Even as the longer climate trend increases, there is still variability—ups and downs—in the short term weather.

In fact, extra snowy winters can be expected in some areas. In a warmer climate, more water vapor is held in the atmosphere causing more intense rain and snow storms. As the climate warms, we do expect the duration of the snow season to decrease; however, as long as it is still cold enough to snow, a warming climate can lead to bigger snowstorms. [8]

» Learn more about weather and climate .

Higher concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause Earth to warm. Warmer temperatures increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. Because water vapor is also a greenhouse gas, this leads to even further warming. In this way, water vapor actually magnifies the warming caused by excess carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. [6]

» Learn more about the causes of climate change .

Yes. Plants, oceans, and soils release and absorb large quantities of carbon dioxide as a part of the Earth's natural carbon cycle. These natural emissions and absorptions of carbon dioxide on average balance out over time. However, the carbon dioxide from human activities is not part of this natural balance. Ice core measurements reveal that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are higher than they have been for at least 800,000 years. [6] The global warming that has been observed in recent decades was caused by elevated levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere , due primarily to human activities. [1]

» Learn more about the recent role of the greenhouse effect .

There were times in the distant past when Earth was warmer than it is now. However, human societies have developed and thrived during the relatively stable climate that has existed since the last ice age. Due to excess carbon dioxide pollution, the climate is no longer stable and is instead projected to change faster than at any other time in human history. Impacts from climate change are already occurring and are expected to become increasingly disruptive in many sectors. Sea level rise, extreme weather events, and other effects of climate change all post risks to human health, critical infrastructure, agriculture, and the ecosystems that support us. [1]

The ozone hole and climate change are two separate issues. The "ozone hole" refers to the destruction of a layer of ozone molecules found high in Earth's atmosphere. When healthy, this ozone layer helps to shield Earth from the sun's harmful ultraviolet rays. The ozone layer has become thinner because of chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons that were once commonly used in products ranging from spray cans to foam furniture cushions. A thinner ozone layer allows more ultraviolet rays to reach Earth, increasing the risk to humans from skin cancer, cataracts, and other health impacts. This, however, has only minor effects on climate change.

» Learn more about the science of stratospheric ozone depletion .

Yes. A small rise in sea level will affect many people, even in the United States. Without adaptation, coastal flooding and land loss will affect and displace hundreds of millions of people around the world by the year 2100. Global sea level has risen approximately 7.5 inches, on average, over the period since 1870. This rise has already put coastal communities and infrastructure at risk, including water supply and energy infrastructure; evacuation routes; ports, tourism, and fishing sites; communities; and ecosystems. By the year 2100, sea level is projected to rise another one to four feet. [3]

Rising seas and more frequent coastal storms make the associated storm surge and flooding events more destructive. For example, a sea level rise of two feet, without any changes in storms, would more than triple the frequency of dangerous coastal flooding throughout most of the northeast United States. Flood waters can damage homes, disrupt energy, communications, or transportation systems, and create health hazards during and after floods. [9]

» Learn more about the impacts of climate change on coastal areas .

Yes. Multiple temperature records from all over the world have all shown a warming trend, and these records have been deemed reliable by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), among others. Other observations that point to higher global temperature includes: warmer oceans, melting Arctic sea ice and glaciers, sea level rise, increasing precipitation, and changing plant and animal cycles. [10]

» Learn more about climate change indicators .

It is not too late to have a significant impact on future climate change and its effects on us. With appropriate actions by governments, communities, individuals, and businesses, we can reduce the amount of greenhouse gas pollution we release and lower the risk of much greater warming and severe consequences. Many of the actions that we can take to address climate change will have other benefits, such as cleaner, healthier air. In addition, communities can take action to prepare for the changes we know are coming.

» Learn more about adapting to climate change and what you can do , and the benefits to the United States of global action .

1. USGCRP (2014).  Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment .  Melillo, Jerry M., Theres (T.C.) Richmond, and Gary W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program. 

2. NRC (2011). America's Climate Choices: Final Report . Exit National Research Council. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, USA.

3. IPCC (2013). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

4. EPA (2016).  Climate Change Indicators in the United States:   U.S. and Global Temperature .

5. NOAA (2016).  State of the Climate: Global Analysis - Annual 2015 . NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.

6. EPA (2016).  Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases . 

7. NRC (2011). Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia . Exit National Research Council. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, USA.

8. EPA (2016).  Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Snowfall . 

9. USGCRP (2016).  The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment . Crimmins, A., J. Balbus, J.L. Gamble, C.B. Beard, J.E. Bell, D. Dodgen, R.J. Eisen, N. Fann, M.D. Hawkins, S.C. Herring, L. Jantarasami, D.M. Mills, S. Saha, M.C. Sarofim, J. Trtanj, and L. Ziska, Eds. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC.

10. EPA (2016).  Climate Change Indicators in the United States . 

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Essay on Climate Change

Climate Change Essay - The globe is growing increasingly sensitive to climate change. It is currently a serious worldwide concern. The term "Climate Change" describes changes to the earth's climate. It explains the atmospheric changes that have occurred across time, spanning from decades to millions of years. Here are some sample essays on climate change.

100 Words Essay on Climate Change

200 words essay on climate change, 500 words essay on climate change.

The climatic conditions on Earth are changing due to climate change. Several internal and external variables, such as solar radiation, variations in the Earth's orbit, volcanic eruptions, plate tectonics, etc., are to blame for this.

There are strategies for climate change reduction. If not implemented, the weather might get worse, there might be water scarcity, there could be lower agricultural output, and it might affect people's ability to make a living. In order to breathe clean air and drink pure water, you must concentrate on limiting human activity. These are the simple measures that may be taken to safeguard the environment and its resources.

The climate of the Earth has changed significantly over time. While some of these changes were brought on by natural events like volcanic eruptions, floods, forest fires, etc., many of the changes were brought on by human activity. The burning of fossil fuels, domesticating livestock, and other human activities produce a significant quantity of greenhouse gases. This results in an increase of greenhouse effect and global warming which are the major causes for climate change.

Reasons of Climate Change

Some of the reasons of climate change are:

Deforestation

Excessive use of fossil fuels

Water and soil pollution

Plastic and other non biodegradable waste

Wildlife and nature extinction

Consequences of Climate Change

All kinds of life on earth will be affected by climate change if it continues to change at the same pace. The earth's temperature will increase, the monsoon patterns will shift, the sea level will rise, and there will be more frequent storms, volcano eruptions, and other natural calamities. The earth's biological and ecological equilibrium will be disturbed. Humans won't be able to access clean water or air to breathe when the environment becomes contaminated. The end of life on this earth is imminent. To reduce the issue of climate change, we need to bring social awareness along with strict measures to protect and preserve the natural environment.

A shift in the world's climatic pattern is referred to as climate change. Over the centuries, the climate pattern of our planet has undergone modifications. The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has significantly grown.

When Did Climate Change Begin

It is possible to see signs of climate change as early as the beginning of the industrial revolution. The pace at which the manufacturers produced things on a large scale required a significant amount of raw materials. Since the raw materials being transformed into finished products now have such huge potential for profit, these business models have spread quickly over the world. Hazardous substances and chemicals build up in the environment as a result of company emissions and waste disposal.

Although climate change is a natural occurrence, it is evident that human activity is turning into the primary cause of the current climate change situation. The major cause is the growing population. Natural resources are utilised more and more as a result of the population's fast growth placing a heavy burden on the available resources. Over time, as more and more products and services are created, pollution will eventually increase.

Causes of Climate Change

There are a number of factors that have contributed towards weather change in the past and continue to do so. Let us look at a few:

Solar Radiation |The climate of earth is determined by how quickly the sun's energy is absorbed and distributed throughout space. This energy is transmitted throughout the world by the winds, ocean currents etc which affects the climatic conditions of the world. Changes in solar intensity have an effect on the world's climate.

Deforestation | The atmosphere's carbon dioxide is stored by trees. As a result of their destruction, carbon dioxide builds up more quickly since there are no trees to absorb it. Additionally, trees release the carbon they stored when we burn them.

Agriculture | Many kinds of greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere by growing crops and raising livestock. Animals, for instance, create methane, a greenhouse gas that is 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide. The nitrous oxide used in fertilisers is roughly 300 times more strong than carbon dioxide.

How to Prevent Climate Change

We need to look out for drastic steps to stop climate change since it is affecting the resources and life on our planet. We can stop climate change if the right solutions are put in place. Here are some strategies for reducing climate change:

Raising public awareness of climate change

Prohibiting tree-cutting and deforestation.

Ensure the surroundings are clean.

Refrain from using chemical fertilisers.

Water and other natural resource waste should be reduced.

Protect the animals and plants.

Purchase energy-efficient goods and equipment.

Increase the number of trees in the neighbourhood and its surroundings.

Follow the law and safeguard the environment's resources.

Reduce the amount of energy you use.

During the last few decades especially, climate change has grown to be of concern. Global concern has been raised over changes in the Earth's climatic pattern. The causes of climate change are numerous, as well as the effects of it and it is our responsibility as inhabitants of this planet to look after its well being and leave it in a better condition for future generations.

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Bio Medical Engineer

The field of biomedical engineering opens up a universe of expert chances. An Individual in the biomedical engineering career path work in the field of engineering as well as medicine, in order to find out solutions to common problems of the two fields. The biomedical engineering job opportunities are to collaborate with doctors and researchers to develop medical systems, equipment, or devices that can solve clinical problems. Here we will be discussing jobs after biomedical engineering, how to get a job in biomedical engineering, biomedical engineering scope, and salary. 

Data Administrator

Database professionals use software to store and organise data such as financial information, and customer shipping records. Individuals who opt for a career as data administrators ensure that data is available for users and secured from unauthorised sales. DB administrators may work in various types of industries. It may involve computer systems design, service firms, insurance companies, banks and hospitals.

Ethical Hacker

A career as ethical hacker involves various challenges and provides lucrative opportunities in the digital era where every giant business and startup owns its cyberspace on the world wide web. Individuals in the ethical hacker career path try to find the vulnerabilities in the cyber system to get its authority. If he or she succeeds in it then he or she gets its illegal authority. Individuals in the ethical hacker career path then steal information or delete the file that could affect the business, functioning, or services of the organization.

Data Analyst

The invention of the database has given fresh breath to the people involved in the data analytics career path. Analysis refers to splitting up a whole into its individual components for individual analysis. Data analysis is a method through which raw data are processed and transformed into information that would be beneficial for user strategic thinking.

Data are collected and examined to respond to questions, evaluate hypotheses or contradict theories. It is a tool for analyzing, transforming, modeling, and arranging data with useful knowledge, to assist in decision-making and methods, encompassing various strategies, and is used in different fields of business, research, and social science.

Geothermal Engineer

Individuals who opt for a career as geothermal engineers are the professionals involved in the processing of geothermal energy. The responsibilities of geothermal engineers may vary depending on the workplace location. Those who work in fields design facilities to process and distribute geothermal energy. They oversee the functioning of machinery used in the field.

Remote Sensing Technician

Individuals who opt for a career as a remote sensing technician possess unique personalities. Remote sensing analysts seem to be rational human beings, they are strong, independent, persistent, sincere, realistic and resourceful. Some of them are analytical as well, which means they are intelligent, introspective and inquisitive. 

Remote sensing scientists use remote sensing technology to support scientists in fields such as community planning, flight planning or the management of natural resources. Analysing data collected from aircraft, satellites or ground-based platforms using statistical analysis software, image analysis software or Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a significant part of their work. Do you want to learn how to become remote sensing technician? There's no need to be concerned; we've devised a simple remote sensing technician career path for you. Scroll through the pages and read.

Geotechnical engineer

The role of geotechnical engineer starts with reviewing the projects needed to define the required material properties. The work responsibilities are followed by a site investigation of rock, soil, fault distribution and bedrock properties on and below an area of interest. The investigation is aimed to improve the ground engineering design and determine their engineering properties that include how they will interact with, on or in a proposed construction. 

The role of geotechnical engineer in mining includes designing and determining the type of foundations, earthworks, and or pavement subgrades required for the intended man-made structures to be made. Geotechnical engineering jobs are involved in earthen and concrete dam construction projects, working under a range of normal and extreme loading conditions. 

Cartographer

How fascinating it is to represent the whole world on just a piece of paper or a sphere. With the help of maps, we are able to represent the real world on a much smaller scale. Individuals who opt for a career as a cartographer are those who make maps. But, cartography is not just limited to maps, it is about a mixture of art , science , and technology. As a cartographer, not only you will create maps but use various geodetic surveys and remote sensing systems to measure, analyse, and create different maps for political, cultural or educational purposes.

Budget Analyst

Budget analysis, in a nutshell, entails thoroughly analyzing the details of a financial budget. The budget analysis aims to better understand and manage revenue. Budget analysts assist in the achievement of financial targets, the preservation of profitability, and the pursuit of long-term growth for a business. Budget analysts generally have a bachelor's degree in accounting, finance, economics, or a closely related field. Knowledge of Financial Management is of prime importance in this career.

Product Manager

A Product Manager is a professional responsible for product planning and marketing. He or she manages the product throughout the Product Life Cycle, gathering and prioritising the product. A product manager job description includes defining the product vision and working closely with team members of other departments to deliver winning products.  

Underwriter

An underwriter is a person who assesses and evaluates the risk of insurance in his or her field like mortgage, loan, health policy, investment, and so on and so forth. The underwriter career path does involve risks as analysing the risks means finding out if there is a way for the insurance underwriter jobs to recover the money from its clients. If the risk turns out to be too much for the company then in the future it is an underwriter who will be held accountable for it. Therefore, one must carry out his or her job with a lot of attention and diligence.

Finance Executive

Operations manager.

Individuals in the operations manager jobs are responsible for ensuring the efficiency of each department to acquire its optimal goal. They plan the use of resources and distribution of materials. The operations manager's job description includes managing budgets, negotiating contracts, and performing administrative tasks.

Bank Probationary Officer (PO)

Investment director.

An investment director is a person who helps corporations and individuals manage their finances. They can help them develop a strategy to achieve their goals, including paying off debts and investing in the future. In addition, he or she can help individuals make informed decisions.

Welding Engineer

Welding Engineer Job Description: A Welding Engineer work involves managing welding projects and supervising welding teams. He or she is responsible for reviewing welding procedures, processes and documentation. A career as Welding Engineer involves conducting failure analyses and causes on welding issues. 

Transportation Planner

A career as Transportation Planner requires technical application of science and technology in engineering, particularly the concepts, equipment and technologies involved in the production of products and services. In fields like land use, infrastructure review, ecological standards and street design, he or she considers issues of health, environment and performance. A Transportation Planner assigns resources for implementing and designing programmes. He or she is responsible for assessing needs, preparing plans and forecasts and compliance with regulations.

An expert in plumbing is aware of building regulations and safety standards and works to make sure these standards are upheld. Testing pipes for leakage using air pressure and other gauges, and also the ability to construct new pipe systems by cutting, fitting, measuring and threading pipes are some of the other more involved aspects of plumbing. Individuals in the plumber career path are self-employed or work for a small business employing less than ten people, though some might find working for larger entities or the government more desirable.

Construction Manager

Individuals who opt for a career as construction managers have a senior-level management role offered in construction firms. Responsibilities in the construction management career path are assigning tasks to workers, inspecting their work, and coordinating with other professionals including architects, subcontractors, and building services engineers.

Urban Planner

Urban Planning careers revolve around the idea of developing a plan to use the land optimally, without affecting the environment. Urban planning jobs are offered to those candidates who are skilled in making the right use of land to distribute the growing population, to create various communities. 

Urban planning careers come with the opportunity to make changes to the existing cities and towns. They identify various community needs and make short and long-term plans accordingly.

Highway Engineer

Highway Engineer Job Description:  A Highway Engineer is a civil engineer who specialises in planning and building thousands of miles of roads that support connectivity and allow transportation across the country. He or she ensures that traffic management schemes are effectively planned concerning economic sustainability and successful implementation.

Environmental Engineer

Individuals who opt for a career as an environmental engineer are construction professionals who utilise the skills and knowledge of biology, soil science, chemistry and the concept of engineering to design and develop projects that serve as solutions to various environmental problems. 

Naval Architect

A Naval Architect is a professional who designs, produces and repairs safe and sea-worthy surfaces or underwater structures. A Naval Architect stays involved in creating and designing ships, ferries, submarines and yachts with implementation of various principles such as gravity, ideal hull form, buoyancy and stability. 

Orthotist and Prosthetist

Orthotists and Prosthetists are professionals who provide aid to patients with disabilities. They fix them to artificial limbs (prosthetics) and help them to regain stability. There are times when people lose their limbs in an accident. In some other occasions, they are born without a limb or orthopaedic impairment. Orthotists and prosthetists play a crucial role in their lives with fixing them to assistive devices and provide mobility.

Veterinary Doctor

Pathologist.

A career in pathology in India is filled with several responsibilities as it is a medical branch and affects human lives. The demand for pathologists has been increasing over the past few years as people are getting more aware of different diseases. Not only that, but an increase in population and lifestyle changes have also contributed to the increase in a pathologist’s demand. The pathology careers provide an extremely huge number of opportunities and if you want to be a part of the medical field you can consider being a pathologist. If you want to know more about a career in pathology in India then continue reading this article.

Speech Therapist

Gynaecologist.

Gynaecology can be defined as the study of the female body. The job outlook for gynaecology is excellent since there is evergreen demand for one because of their responsibility of dealing with not only women’s health but also fertility and pregnancy issues. Although most women prefer to have a women obstetrician gynaecologist as their doctor, men also explore a career as a gynaecologist and there are ample amounts of male doctors in the field who are gynaecologists and aid women during delivery and childbirth. 

An oncologist is a specialised doctor responsible for providing medical care to patients diagnosed with cancer. He or she uses several therapies to control the cancer and its effect on the human body such as chemotherapy, immunotherapy, radiation therapy and biopsy. An oncologist designs a treatment plan based on a pathology report after diagnosing the type of cancer and where it is spreading inside the body.

Audiologist

The audiologist career involves audiology professionals who are responsible to treat hearing loss and proactively preventing the relevant damage. Individuals who opt for a career as an audiologist use various testing strategies with the aim to determine if someone has a normal sensitivity to sounds or not. After the identification of hearing loss, a hearing doctor is required to determine which sections of the hearing are affected, to what extent they are affected, and where the wound causing the hearing loss is found. As soon as the hearing loss is identified, the patients are provided with recommendations for interventions and rehabilitation such as hearing aids, cochlear implants, and appropriate medical referrals. While audiology is a branch of science that studies and researches hearing, balance, and related disorders.

Hospital Administrator

The hospital Administrator is in charge of organising and supervising the daily operations of medical services and facilities. This organising includes managing of organisation’s staff and its members in service, budgets, service reports, departmental reporting and taking reminders of patient care and services.

For an individual who opts for a career as an actor, the primary responsibility is to completely speak to the character he or she is playing and to persuade the crowd that the character is genuine by connecting with them and bringing them into the story. This applies to significant roles and littler parts, as all roles join to make an effective creation. Here in this article, we will discuss how to become an actor in India, actor exams, actor salary in India, and actor jobs. 

Individuals who opt for a career as acrobats create and direct original routines for themselves, in addition to developing interpretations of existing routines. The work of circus acrobats can be seen in a variety of performance settings, including circus, reality shows, sports events like the Olympics, movies and commercials. Individuals who opt for a career as acrobats must be prepared to face rejections and intermittent periods of work. The creativity of acrobats may extend to other aspects of the performance. For example, acrobats in the circus may work with gym trainers, celebrities or collaborate with other professionals to enhance such performance elements as costume and or maybe at the teaching end of the career.

Video Game Designer

Career as a video game designer is filled with excitement as well as responsibilities. A video game designer is someone who is involved in the process of creating a game from day one. He or she is responsible for fulfilling duties like designing the character of the game, the several levels involved, plot, art and similar other elements. Individuals who opt for a career as a video game designer may also write the codes for the game using different programming languages.

Depending on the video game designer job description and experience they may also have to lead a team and do the early testing of the game in order to suggest changes and find loopholes.

Radio Jockey

Radio Jockey is an exciting, promising career and a great challenge for music lovers. If you are really interested in a career as radio jockey, then it is very important for an RJ to have an automatic, fun, and friendly personality. If you want to get a job done in this field, a strong command of the language and a good voice are always good things. Apart from this, in order to be a good radio jockey, you will also listen to good radio jockeys so that you can understand their style and later make your own by practicing.

A career as radio jockey has a lot to offer to deserving candidates. If you want to know more about a career as radio jockey, and how to become a radio jockey then continue reading the article.

Choreographer

The word “choreography" actually comes from Greek words that mean “dance writing." Individuals who opt for a career as a choreographer create and direct original dances, in addition to developing interpretations of existing dances. A Choreographer dances and utilises his or her creativity in other aspects of dance performance. For example, he or she may work with the music director to select music or collaborate with other famous choreographers to enhance such performance elements as lighting, costume and set design.

Videographer

Multimedia specialist.

A multimedia specialist is a media professional who creates, audio, videos, graphic image files, computer animations for multimedia applications. He or she is responsible for planning, producing, and maintaining websites and applications. 

Social Media Manager

A career as social media manager involves implementing the company’s or brand’s marketing plan across all social media channels. Social media managers help in building or improving a brand’s or a company’s website traffic, build brand awareness, create and implement marketing and brand strategy. Social media managers are key to important social communication as well.

Copy Writer

In a career as a copywriter, one has to consult with the client and understand the brief well. A career as a copywriter has a lot to offer to deserving candidates. Several new mediums of advertising are opening therefore making it a lucrative career choice. Students can pursue various copywriter courses such as Journalism , Advertising , Marketing Management . Here, we have discussed how to become a freelance copywriter, copywriter career path, how to become a copywriter in India, and copywriting career outlook. 

Careers in journalism are filled with excitement as well as responsibilities. One cannot afford to miss out on the details. As it is the small details that provide insights into a story. Depending on those insights a journalist goes about writing a news article. A journalism career can be stressful at times but if you are someone who is passionate about it then it is the right choice for you. If you want to know more about the media field and journalist career then continue reading this article.

For publishing books, newspapers, magazines and digital material, editorial and commercial strategies are set by publishers. Individuals in publishing career paths make choices about the markets their businesses will reach and the type of content that their audience will be served. Individuals in book publisher careers collaborate with editorial staff, designers, authors, and freelance contributors who develop and manage the creation of content.

In a career as a vlogger, one generally works for himself or herself. However, once an individual has gained viewership there are several brands and companies that approach them for paid collaboration. It is one of those fields where an individual can earn well while following his or her passion. 

Ever since internet costs got reduced the viewership for these types of content has increased on a large scale. Therefore, a career as a vlogger has a lot to offer. If you want to know more about the Vlogger eligibility, roles and responsibilities then continue reading the article. 

Individuals in the editor career path is an unsung hero of the news industry who polishes the language of the news stories provided by stringers, reporters, copywriters and content writers and also news agencies. Individuals who opt for a career as an editor make it more persuasive, concise and clear for readers. In this article, we will discuss the details of the editor's career path such as how to become an editor in India, editor salary in India and editor skills and qualities.

Linguistic meaning is related to language or Linguistics which is the study of languages. A career as a linguistic meaning, a profession that is based on the scientific study of language, and it's a very broad field with many specialities. Famous linguists work in academia, researching and teaching different areas of language, such as phonetics (sounds), syntax (word order) and semantics (meaning). 

Other researchers focus on specialities like computational linguistics, which seeks to better match human and computer language capacities, or applied linguistics, which is concerned with improving language education. Still, others work as language experts for the government, advertising companies, dictionary publishers and various other private enterprises. Some might work from home as freelance linguists. Philologist, phonologist, and dialectician are some of Linguist synonym. Linguists can study French , German , Italian . 

Public Relation Executive

Travel journalist.

The career of a travel journalist is full of passion, excitement and responsibility. Journalism as a career could be challenging at times, but if you're someone who has been genuinely enthusiastic about all this, then it is the best decision for you. Travel journalism jobs are all about insightful, artfully written, informative narratives designed to cover the travel industry. Travel Journalist is someone who explores, gathers and presents information as a news article.

Quality Controller

A quality controller plays a crucial role in an organisation. He or she is responsible for performing quality checks on manufactured products. He or she identifies the defects in a product and rejects the product. 

A quality controller records detailed information about products with defects and sends it to the supervisor or plant manager to take necessary actions to improve the production process.

Production Manager

Merchandiser.

A QA Lead is in charge of the QA Team. The role of QA Lead comes with the responsibility of assessing services and products in order to determine that he or she meets the quality standards. He or she develops, implements and manages test plans. 

Metallurgical Engineer

A metallurgical engineer is a professional who studies and produces materials that bring power to our world. He or she extracts metals from ores and rocks and transforms them into alloys, high-purity metals and other materials used in developing infrastructure, transportation and healthcare equipment. 

Azure Administrator

An Azure Administrator is a professional responsible for implementing, monitoring, and maintaining Azure Solutions. He or she manages cloud infrastructure service instances and various cloud servers as well as sets up public and private cloud systems. 

AWS Solution Architect

An AWS Solution Architect is someone who specializes in developing and implementing cloud computing systems. He or she has a good understanding of the various aspects of cloud computing and can confidently deploy and manage their systems. He or she troubleshoots the issues and evaluates the risk from the third party. 

Computer Programmer

Careers in computer programming primarily refer to the systematic act of writing code and moreover include wider computer science areas. The word 'programmer' or 'coder' has entered into practice with the growing number of newly self-taught tech enthusiasts. Computer programming careers involve the use of designs created by software developers and engineers and transforming them into commands that can be implemented by computers. These commands result in regular usage of social media sites, word-processing applications and browsers.

ITSM Manager

Information security manager.

Individuals in the information security manager career path involves in overseeing and controlling all aspects of computer security. The IT security manager job description includes planning and carrying out security measures to protect the business data and information from corruption, theft, unauthorised access, and deliberate attack 

Business Intelligence Developer

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Responding to the Climate Threat: Essays on Humanity’s Greatest Challenge

A new book co-authored by MIT Joint Program Founding Co-Director Emeritus Henry Jacoby

From the Back Cover

This book demonstrates how robust and evolving science can be relevant to public discourse about climate policy. Fighting climate change is the ultimate societal challenge, and the difficulty is not just in the wrenching adjustments required to cut greenhouse emissions and to respond to change already under way. A second and equally important difficulty is ensuring widespread public understanding of the natural and social science. This understanding is essential for an effective risk management strategy at a planetary scale. The scientific, economic, and policy aspects of climate change are already a challenge to communicate, without factoring in the distractions and deflections from organized programs of misinformation and denial. 

Here, four scholars, each with decades of research on the climate threat, take on the task of explaining our current understanding of the climate threat and what can be done about it, in lay language―importantly, without losing critical  aspects of the natural and social science. In a series of essays, published during the 2020 presidential election, the COVID pandemic, and through the fall of 2021, they explain the essential components of the challenge, countering the forces of distrust of the science and opposition to a vigorous national response.  

Each of the essays provides an opportunity to learn about a particular aspect of climate science and policy within the complex context of current events. The overall volume is more than the sum of its individual articles. Proceeding each essay is an explanation of the context in which it was written, followed by observation of what has happened since its first publication. In addition to its discussion of topical issues in modern climate science, the book also explores science communication to a broad audience. Its authors are not only scientists – they are also teachers, using current events to teach when people are listening. For preserving Earth’s planetary life support system, science and teaching are essential. Advancing both is an unending task.

About the Authors

Gary Yohe is the Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Emeritus, at Wesleyan University in Connecticut. He served as convening lead author for multiple chapters and the Synthesis Report for the IPCC from 1990 through 2014 and was vice-chair of the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment.

Henry Jacoby is the William F. Pounds Professor of Management, Emeritus, in the MIT Sloan School of Management and former co-director of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is focused on the integration of the natural and social sciences and policy analysis in application to the threat of global climate change.

Richard Richels directed climate change research at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). He served as lead author for multiple chapters of the IPCC in the areas of mitigation, impacts and adaptation from 1992 through 2014. He also served on the National Assessment Synthesis Team for the first U.S. National Climate Assessment.

Ben Santer is a climate scientist and John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Fellow. He contributed to all six IPCC reports. He was the lead author of Chapter 8 of the 1995 IPCC report which concluded that “the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate”. He is currently a Visiting Researcher at UCLA’s Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science & Engineering.

Access the Book

View the book on the publisher's website  here .

Order the book from Amazon  here . 

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Article Contents

Introduction, the analytical framework: linking climate change, vulnerability, and conflict, methodology: a systematic review, pathways between climate change and violent conflict in the mena region, evaluating the “pathways” framework in the mena region.

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Climate Change and Violent Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa

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Kyungmee Kim, Tània Ferré Garcia, Climate Change and Violent Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, International Studies Review , Volume 25, Issue 4, December 2023, viad053, https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viad053

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Previous research has demonstrated that climate change can escalate the risks for violent conflict through various pathways. Existing evidence suggests that contextual factors, such as migration and livelihood options, governance arrangements, and existing conflict dynamics, can influence the pathways through which climate change leads to conflict. This important insight leads to an inquiry to identify sets of conditions and processes that make climate-related violent conflict more likely. In this analytic essay, we conduct a systematic review of scholarly literature published during the period 1989–2022 and explore the climate-conflict pathways in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Through the systematic review of forty-one peer-reviewed publications in English, we identify that society’s ability to cope with the changing climate and extreme weather events is influenced by a range of factors, including preceding government policies that led to the mismanagement of land and water and existing conflict dynamics in the MENA region. Empirical research to unpack the complex and diverse relationship between the climate shocks and violent conflict in the MENA region needs advancing. Several avenues for future research are highlighted such as more studies on North Africa and the Gulf region, with focus on the implications of floods and heatwaves, and exploring climate implications on non-agriculture sectors including the critical oil sector.

Investigaciones previas que han demostrado que el cambio climático puede llegar a aumentar la probabilidad del riesgo de conflictos violentos a través de diversos mecanismos. Las pruebas existentes sugieren que los factores contextuales, tales como la migración y las opciones de medios de subsistencia, los acuerdos de gobernanza y la dinámica de conflicto existente, pueden influir en las vías a través de las cuales el cambio climático conduce a los conflictos. Esta percepción motiva una investigación con el objetivo de identificar una serie de condiciones y procesos que hacen que incrementan la probabilidad de conflictos violentos relacionados con el clima. En este ensayo analítico, llevamos a cabo una revisión sistemática de la literatura académica publicada durante el período entre 1989 y 2022. El estudio explora las vías de conflicto climático en la región de Oriente Medio y el Norte de África (MENA, por sus siglas en inglés). A través de la revisión sistemática de 41 publicaciones en inglés revisadas por expertos, fenómenos meteorológicos extremos está influenciada por una serie de factores, que incluyen tanto las políticas gubernamentales precedentes que condujeron a la mala gestión de la tierra y el agua como la dinámica de conflicto existente en la región MENA. Es esencial avanzar en la investigación empírica para poder desentrañar la compleja y diversa relación existente entre las perturbaciones climáticas y los conflictos violentos en la región de Oriente Medio y el Norte de África. Destacamos varias vías de investigación futura, como la realización de un mayor número estudios sobre el norte de África y la región del Golfo, con un enfoque en las implicaciones de las inundaciones y las olas de calor, así como la exploración de las implicaciones climáticas en los sectores no agrícolas, incluido el sector petrolero, de crítica importancia.

Des travaux de recherche antérieurs ont montré que le changement climatique pouvait aggraver les risques de conflits violents de bien des façons. Les éléments probants existants indiquent que les facteurs contextuels, comme les possibilités d'immigration et de moyens de subsistance, les arrangements gouvernementaux et les dynamiques de conflit existantes, peuvent avoir une incidence sur les mécanismes par lesquels le changement climatique peut créer des conflits. Cette information importante nous pousse à chercher les ensembles de conditions et de processus qui augmentent la probabilité des conflits violents en lien avec le climat. Dans cet article analytique, nous conduisons un examen systématique de la littérature académique publiée entre 1989 et 2022 pour nous intéresser aux liens entre climat et conflits dans la région du Moyen-Orient et de l'Afrique du Nord (MENA). En examinant de façon systématique 41 publications en anglais vérifiées par des pairs, nous remarquons que la capacité d'une société à gérer l’évolution du climat et les phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes est liée à un éventail de facteurs, y compris les politiques précédentes du gouvernement qui ont engendré une mauvaise gestion des terres et de l'eau et les dynamiques de conflit existantes dans la région MENA. La recherche empirique pour décortiquer la relation complexe et plurielle entre les crises climatiques et les conflits violents dans la région MENA doit avancer. Plusieurs pistes de recherches ultérieures sont présentées, comme davantage d’études dans la région de l'Afrique du Nord et du Golfe, en se concentrant plus particulièrement sur les implications des inondations et des vagues de chaleur, et l'analyse des conséquences climatiques sur les secteurs hors agriculture, notamment le secteur décisif du pétrole.

Climate change contributes to conflict risk and undermines livelihoods and human security. The impact of climate change overburdens countries in demanding security environments and exacerbates political instability, which may lead to violent conflict. Researchers have sought to explain the relationship between climate change and violent conflict and climate change as a growing factor for security risks ( Gleditsch 2012 ; Meierding 2013 ; Sakaguchi, Varughese, and Auld 2017 ; Ide 2018 ; Van Baalen and Mobjörk 2018 ). There is a greater consensus that climate change has an impact on human security and sustaining peace ( Abrahams 2020 ; Black et al. 2022 ; Morales-Muñoz et al. 2022 ). The evidence has been gathered on the physical changes in diverse livelihood systems and human migration and the negative effects on human adaptation capacities ( IPCC 2022 ). The debate may have to move on from whether climate change has been the primary cause of a war or not ( Verhoeven 2011 ; e.g., Selby et al. 2017 ). Our understanding of what context climate change matters for conflict and security and how relevant factors play out in local contexts should be based on comprehensive and systematic research that considers various scales, time periods, and localities.

Moreover, existing evidence suggests that climate-related security risks are context specific, and there are multiple pathways by which climate change influences the onsets and patterns of armed conflict ( Brzoska and Fröhlich 2016 ; Mobjörk, Krampe, and Tarif 2020 ). The “climate insecurity pathway” framework assumes that climate change may not be the only contributor to violent conflict but also other factors leading to insecurity such as internal and international migration, livelihood options, and governance arrangements ( Van Baalen and Mobjörk 2018 ). Existing conflict dynamics and security environments can exacerbate climate-related security risks. This analytic essay contributes to the debate on how climate change affects the risk of violent conflict by conducting a systematic review of the literature directly or indirectly linking climate change of violent conflict focusing on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region that has been severely impacted by both. 1 By conducting a systematic literature review, we are particularly interested in synthesizing existing evidence to better understand the climate-conflict links in the MENA region. We included forty-one peer-reviewed articles published between 1989 and 2022 in the analysis. Based on the review, we conclude that the relationship between climate change and violent conflict is predominantly indirect and diverse, highlighting the need to avoid oversimplified assumptions. Climate change’s contribution to conflict risk in the MENA region is further mediated by political economy, institutional weaknesses, elite competition, and existing socio-political relations. A careful examination of evidence is crucial for comprehensive climate security discussions in general and policy considerations for the MENA region. The following systematic review of literature showcases the linkages between climate exposure and various sources of vulnerability in the MENA region.

Climate Exposure and Social Vulnerability in the MENA Region

The MENA region is facing major security challenges from its vulnerability to climate change and violent conflict. The region is the world’s most water-stressed region, hosting thirteen of the world’s twenty most water-stressed countries, with currently over 82 percent of its terrain covered in desert ( Sieghart and Betre 2018 ). Indeed, water rationing and the limitation of water supplies are already a reality in parts of Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine, and Jordan ( Sowers, Vengosh, and Weinthal 2011 ). Recent climate science predicts an average global warming of 1.5°C under the business-as-usual scenario, while in the MENA region, it is expected to increase up to 4°C ( Gaub and Lienard 2021 ). Furthermore, the level of mean precipitation is also expected to decrease in the region ( Zittis , et al. 2020 ). By the end of the century, about half of the MENA population could be annually exposed to super- and ultra-extreme heatwaves ( Zittis et al. 2021 ). In essence, the region is likely to become drier and experience extremely high temperatures, followed by extreme and chronic water shortages becoming more frequent.

Many countries in the MENA region are vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to their weak adaptive capacity ( Sowers et al. 2011 ; Namdar, Karami, and Keshavarz 2021 ). The adaptive capacity to climate change varies across the MENA region. While oil-exporting Gulf states have the financial resources for investments in water desalination and wastewater technologies, others suffer from a lack of financial resources and water conservation policies ( Sowers et al. 2011 ). The adverse effect of climate change on agricultural productivity is likely to affect the livelihood conditions of rural populations and may contribute to rural-to-urban migration in some cases ( Waha et al. 2017 ). Changes in precipitation and extreme weather events can reduce the region’s agriculture yields, as up to 70 percent of the crops are rain-fed ( Waha et al. 2017 ). Climate change impacts present a threat to food security in the MENA region and exacerbate the vulnerability to global food price volatility, including Egypt and Lebanon. Countries with a high level of imported grain dependency witness significant inflations in cereal prices that can be a source of political instability ( Tanchum 2021 ). Food price volatility has contributed to political stability in the past, especially during the Arab Spring, and the combined effect of reduced water discharge with the demographic trend of the youth bulge could present a challenge to the political stability of a region ( Borghesi and Ticci 2019 ).

Over the past decade, several of the world’s deadliest conflicts flared up in the MENA region, particularly in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Turkey ( Palik et al. 2020 ). The intractable conflict between Israel and Palestine has caused immense human suffering and disrupted regional stability. These conflicts are linked to long-running inequalities and grievances and economic and political instability, which make conflict resolution exceptionally challenging. Deterioration of the physical environment and land degradation further exacerbate risks of communal conflict and political instability in the future. Violent conflict, on the other hand, has been destructive to the adjoining environment. For instance, the effect of intense armed conflict has been significant in Syria’s already declining land and water resources ( Mohamed, Anders, and Schneider 2020 ). Environmental degradation leading to water and food insecurity has adversely affected the livelihoods of the population.

The linkages between conflict and the environment are an integral component that constitutes peace and security in the MENA region. The arid natural environment of the region and the changing climate are part of consideration when analyzing conflict in the region ( Smith and Krampe 2019 ). This article focuses on the MENA region and analyzes the role of climate-related environmental factors in violent conflict by drawing evidence from existing research. This systematic review provides an overview of conditions and processes in the climate-conflict nexus. The findings demonstrate that indirect pathways between climate change and violent conflict that are found in other regions such as East Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and West Africa are also applicable to the MENA region. In addition, downstream impacts of water development projects such as dams and irrigation projects in transboundary river basins, weaponization of water by armed groups, and the government’s mismanagement of water and land have particularly affected vulnerability to climate change in the MENA region. Climate change exacerbates water scarcity in the MENA region, which in turn can incentivize policies such as unilaterally building water storages and weaponization of water as an instrument for leverage during armed conflicts. These MENA region-specific dimensions of climate-conflict pathways appear to be influenced by the region’s internal politics, relations between neighboring countries, and conflict dynamics.

The article is organized in the following order. We present the analytical framework of a set of pathways that connects climate change and violent conflict and then an outline of the methodology for a systematic review, which includes the operationalization of the variables and the sampling strategy. This is followed by the description of the methodology for conducting a systematic review. The review of literature is organized into four categories that are specified in the analytical framework, and then a synthesized analysis is detailed. Finally, we conclude by summarizing policy and research relevant implications from the finding in the MENA regional contexts with a set of recommendations.

The climate-conflict nexus is complex. Climate change has implications for various forms of interstate and intrastate conflict, including communal violence, insurgencies, mass civil resistance campaigns, protests, and interpersonal disputes ( Hendrix et al. 2023 ). Specific contexts of environment, socio-political systems, and pre-existing conflict matter when examining the connection between climate-related environmental changes and conflict. The analytical framework is based on a premise that the relationship between climate change and conflict is mediated by social, political, and ecological vulnerability ( Daoudy 2021 ). When climate impacts contribute to social outcomes such as deteriorating livelihood conditions, migration, escalation of armed groups’ tactics, and elite capture, risks of violent conflict can increase. The following outlines four “pathways” between climate change and conflict ( Figure 1 ).

A framework of climate insecurity pathways

The deterioration of livelihood conditions is a centerpiece in linking environmental changes and violent conflict. Climate-exposed sectors such as agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, and tourism are highly likely to suffer from economic damages from climate change ( IPCC 2022 , SPM-11). Consequently, people whose livelihoods are dependent on the natural environment are subjected to additional economic burdens due to the changing climate or climate shocks. Extreme weather events such as droughts, heatwaves, sandstorms, flooding, and long-term changes in the environment can affect the income from the aforementioned sectors ( IPCC 2022 , SPM-11). Populations with low adaptive capacity including marginalized groups are disproportionately affected and vulnerable to short-term economic damages related to climate change ( IPCC 2022 , SPM-8). Demographic changes may accelerate the deterioration of livelihood conditions. Population growth in the MENA region has been rapid from 105 million in 1960 to 486 million in 2021 ( World Bank 2022 ), which means more land and water are required for livelihoods. Climate change can worsen coastal erosion and decline tin he productivity of coastal plains in Israel and Morocco, which are important for food production. Sea-level rise has negative impacts on deltas, coastal plains, and human settlements, and tourism and industrial activities are also expected to decline due to heatwaves and worsening water shortages ( Sowers et al. 2011 ).

Existing studies focus on various socio-economic outcomes of climate and environmental changes and their implications on conflict mobilization. Agriculture, fisheries, and livestock sectors are particularly susceptible to the loss of income due to climate shocks such as prolonged droughts ( von Uexkull 2014 ; Schmidt and Pearson 2016 ). Loss of income due to the deterioration of livelihood conditions can lead individuals to seek alternative sources of livelihood, and some may turn to illicit activities, including joining non-state armed groups ( Barnett and Adger 2007 , 644; Seter 2016 , 5).

Another category of social outcomes includes changes in migration and mobility patterns. Migration is one of the climate adaptation strategies, and subsequent socioeconomic and political impacts of migration can be linked to conflict. Declining livelihood conditions can trigger rural-to-urban migration in search for alternative livelihoods ( Rüttinger et al. 2015 , 27). Long-term climate change and weather shocks may accelerate environmental degradation and declining livelihood conditions. The increased migration flow accelerates urbanization and creates instability in hosting cities with inadequate infrastructure for public services ( Balsari, Dresser, and Leaning 2020 ).

Changing migratory patterns of pastoralist or agropastoral groups, influenced by the availability of grazing land and water, can be linked to clashes with other communities ( Abroulaye et al. 2015 ; Mohammed Ali 2019 ). Violent communal clashes and livestock raiding, which have become increasingly lethal, are linked to intensified competition over scarce resources for pastoralist populations ( Detges 2014 ). For instance, farmer-herder conflicts in the Sahel region have become increasingly lethal during recent decades, especially in areas with a higher population and livestock density.

Previous research also focuses on the role of elites who have leveraged social outcomes of climate change for their benefit. Here, elite actors include traditional elites, privileged groups with economic and political power, and even armed group leaders. More frequent and intense climate-related extreme weather events can provide additional opportunities for local elites to capture resources. When climate-induced disasters such as droughts and floods cause humanitarian crises, their basic needs and post-disaster reconstruction would bring in additional resources to the disaster-hit regions, which can be exploited by local elites. Humanitarian aid delivery often needs to cooperate with local elites, whose influence over the aid provision can further strengthen the client-patronage relationship, which is a source of tension ( Uson 2017 ). Elite capture of resources, particularly land, is likely to generate strains within and between communities ( Zaman 1991 ). Local grievances over land rights can be exploited in intercommunal conflict or national conflicts ( Chavunduka and Bromley 2011 ). National elites can exploit local grievances of a population segment that are closely related to climate change. Inadequate government responses to Cyclone Bhola in 1970 led to a devastating human toll in the Bay of Bengal and contributed to the rise of the independence movement, which subsequently led to the secession of Bangladesh ( Busby 2022 , 181).

Changing environmental conditions by climate change may influence armed group tactics and behaviors. Armed groups have utilized the local grievances for a recruitment drive for the youth ( Benjaminsen and Ba 2019 ). Climate change also affects the way of wars are to be fought. In warm climates, prolonged and unpredictable rainy seasons can alter the fighting season and patterns. Due to the reduced water availability in some areas, the strategic importance of water access points and infrastructure may have become more salient. Armed groups can escalate the conflict by weaponizing water by flooding farmland and cities or depriving the population of water ( King 2015 ). Amid droughts and unreliable rainfalls, armed groups may consider water weaponization as a more effective tactic in order to influence and control communities already experiencing water scarcity.

The analytical framework of climate-conflict pathways is applied to analyze findings from existing research relevant to the MENA region. The following details a method of a systematic review of the literature.

This paper leverages from existing evidence by conducting a systematic review of existing studies. Systematic review method has been extensively employed in examining the linkage between climate change and violent conflict ( Ide 2018 ; Nordqvist and Krampe 2018 ; Van Baalen and Mobjörk 2018 ; Tarif 2022 ). Systematic reviews differ from a traditional sense of literature review in a way that it is “focused” and “systematic”; it zooms on a specific research question; and is based on pre-established sets of principles for literature selection. Systematic and focused nature of the review is helpful to “locate previous research, select relevant literature, evaluate contributions and analyses, and synthesize data” ( Denyer and Tranfield 2009 , 671). This approach is particularly useful to yield new insights and provide clarification on frequently debated issues ( Dacombe 2018 , 155). In addition, the method is a highly relevant policy tool that promotes evidence-based policymaking.

We have used the following set of principles for locating, selecting, and evaluating the literature. A Boolean search string containing keywords was composed with keywords from climate change and violent conflict. 2 Search words for climate-related environmental conditions include terms related to the effects of extreme weather events or long-term environmental changes on nature-based livelihoods and water and food insecurity, involuntary displacement, which are adopted from previous research done in a similar scope ( Nordqvist and Krampe 2018 ; Van Baalen and Mobjörk 2018 ; Tarif 2022 ). Several social outcomes are theorized as consequences of climate change such as internal and cross-border migration and elite exploitation of changing environmental conditions. In the paper, violent conflict is defined as the situation when one or more actors engaged in violence against hostile groups due to incompatibilities. This broad definition allows include interstate wars, terrorism to communal clashes involving violence. The definition does not include protests and non-violent actions, which are a crucial class of social phenomena leading to political instability and violence. We paid attention to this element in the analysis but excluded studies exclusively focusing on non-violent conflict (e.g., Ide et al. 2021 ). We used specific keywords relevant to conflict actors and types of conflict in the MENA region.

The Boolean search string was used in searching the abstracts of existing studies in English published during 1989–2020 from Web of Science, a major database of scholarly literature. From the search results, we read the abstracts and selected items with relevance to the relationship between climate-related environmental changes and conflict. The initial screening found 141 articles, which then were reviewed manually for their relevance to the inquiry (see the Online Appendix). In the screening process, we excluded a number of studies that focused on the impact of armed conflict on the environment and studies that did not explicitly focus on violent conflict. Similarly, studies that do not explicitly focus on climate change as in long-term climate trends, climate hazards, and weather events were excluded. Another set of articles that were removed from the list were commentaries and reviews that were not based on either qualitative or quantitative empirical material. While all the selected articles either have at least one country in the MENA region or adapt a regional focus on the MENA, the specific definition of these regions varies. In our literature review, we adhere to a specific list of countries that we recognize as part of the region. 3 After the screening, we manually searched the bibliographies of the selected articles and included eleven relevant articles. In total, forty-one articles are reviewed with a focus on a set of categories stemmed from the analytical framework for explaining the relationship between climate-related environmental change and violent conflict ( Figure 2 ).

Peer-reviewed articles reviewed

The geographical focus of the reviewed studies demonstrates that much of the scholarship focuses on Syria and Iraq. In contrast, North African countries and Gulf countries have received relatively limited attention ( Figure 3 ). The high number of research works focusing on Syria can be explained by the high profile of the contested linkage between climate change and the Syrian civil war. While media narratives have regarded Syria as a prime example of an armed conflict fuelled by climate change and several prominent public figures have publicized it as an illustration of the nexus, it is worth noting that scholarly research has presented differing perspectives on the direct causative role of climate change in conflict escalation ( Miller 2015 ; “Climate Wars - Syria” with Thomas Friedman 2017 ; VICE 2017 ).

The distribution of geographical focus of the reviewed studies

Source: a map drawn by authors.

In this section, we discuss existing explanations from previous research that connect climate-related environmental changes and violent conflict in the MENA region. The linkages between the environmental changes related to climate change and violent conflict constitute a complex chain of events (e.g., Gleditsch 1998 ). Most empirical research contributes to examine parts of the chain under specific temporal and spatial scopes, and this is one reason why it is important to consider the broader implication of each piece of evidence, which then can contribute to the better understanding of the climate-conflict pathways as a larger phenomenon. For clarity and focus, we organized a set of findings from previous studies under four pre-determined analytical categories: worsening livelihood conditions, migration and mobility, armed groups, and elite exploitation. As explained earlier, these categories are not mutually exclusive; rather, explanations under different categories are interlinked and can mutually reinforce each other in different stages of mobilization and conflict.

Direct Link between Climate Change and Violent Conflict

Scholars have examined whether climate impacts such as warmer temperatures and precipitation anomalies are statistically correlated to violent conflict, and several studies have focused on specific countries within the MENA region ( Feizi, Janatabadi, and Torshizi 2019 ; Döring 2020 ; Helman and Zaitchik 2020 ; Helman, Zaitchik, and Funk 2020 ; Sofuoglu and Ay 2020 ; Linke and Ruether 2021 ). Findings from existing research on the direct impact of climate-related factors on violent conflict and political instability suggest that the relationship is not always linear and varied in specific country contexts ( Helman and Zaitchik 2020 ; Helman et al. 2020 ). Water scarcity, for instance, is not only associated with increased communal conflict but also cooperation ( Döring 2020 ). Warming did not unitarily increase or decrease conflict risk—warmer temperatures increased risks of violence in Africa but decreased in the Middle East, and warming did not have a linear effect but had a greater effect on conflict risk in warmer regions ( Helman et al. 2020 ). Increased temperatures and rainfall anomalies are positively associated with political instability in the MENA region ( Helman and Zaitchik 2020 ; Sofuoglu and Ay 2020 ). These findings caution against generalized or simplistic assumptions about the relationship between climate change and violent conflict.

Studies have found an insignificant relationship between water scarcity and violent conflict. Precipitation levels and droughts do not have a direct impact on communal violence in a model including the Middle East and Africa ( Döring 2020 ). The same study also found that communal conflict is more likely to occur in areas with lower rainfalls and limited groundwater availability. Groundwater is less affected by short-term droughts, but prolonged droughts and unsustainable extraction can lead to groundwater shortages, which is the case in northern Syria ( Kelley et al. 2015 ) and Yemen ( Weiss 2015 ). Rainfall variability does not seem to have significantly affected the intensity of civil war violence during the 2011–2019 Syrian civil war ( Linke and Ruether 2021 ). The discussion on climate change’s impact on armed group tactics and behavior is followed in the later part of the paper.

Droughts and water scarcity seem to be a source of social disputes and non-violent conflict ( Feizi et al. 2019 ; Bijani et al. 2020 ; Ide et al. 2021 ). Whether the tension over water scarcity escalates to non-violent conflict or not seems to be contingent on the pre-existing negative socio-political relationships between groups and the types of political systems ( Ide et al. 2021 ). In Iran, irregular rainfalls and water scarcity at the local level are linked to interpersonal conflict and communal tensions and can degrade state legitimacy and contribute to political instability ( Feizi et al. 2019 ; Bijani et al. 2020 ).

Evidence from existing studies on the direct climate-conflict link also alludes to the need to further explore the mechanisms between physical environmental changes and social outcomes. Both large- N and small- N studies can contribute to the understanding of the underlying mechanisms or indirect pathways connecting climate change and conflict. The following sections discuss livelihoods, migration, inadequate management, and armed group behaviors as the pathways between climate-related environmental changes and violent conflict.

Deteriorating Livelihood Conditions

Several studies evaluating the worsening livelihood mechanism in the MENA region focus on the relationship between droughts’ impacts on agriculture and conflict. Severe and frequent droughts due to climate change may affect the region’s food security and livelihoods. In the MENA countries, agriculture, fisheries, and livestock accounts for roughly 15 percent of the total population’s livelihood ( World Bank 2023 ). Agriculture dependency is one of the best predictors of violent conflict ( von Uexkull et al. 2016 ). Indeed, evidence from a study focusing on the MENA region and Africa shows a consistent result that conflict risk is higher in areas where the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods ( Helman and Zaitchik 2020 ).

Droughts’ impact on agriculture is an important area of research in the implications of the changing climate on the deterioration of livelihood conditions. During the last three decades, droughts in the MENA region have become more frequent and severe. Three out of four most severe multi-year droughts in the Fertile Crescent region referring to parts of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel, Jordan, and Egypt occurred during 1990–2015 ( Kelley et al. 2015 , 3243). The sub-region has historically witnessed periodic droughts; therefore, their agricultural systems are to a degree adaptive to drought conditions and low rainfalls. More frequent and intensifying droughts and drying conditions may jeopardize the population’s adaptive capacity, leading to far-reaching and consequential disruptions in societies. In particular, the 2007–2008 drought severely affected the agricultural production in the Fertile Crescent region. Annual wheat production in Iraq during 2008–2009 declined by 35 percent ( Selby 2019 , 264). Jordan and the West Bank in Palestine also experienced a reduction in agricultural production after the 2007–2008 drought ( Feitelson and Tubi 2017 ). However, none of these countries experienced the same extent of “shock” as in Syria, whose effects some refer to as the “collapse” of the agricultural sector. The 2007–2008 drought is considered “the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure” and decimation of livestock populations in northeast Syria ( Kelley et al. 2015 , 3241).

A dozen of the reviewed authors have probed the linkage between the 2007 and 2008 multi-year droughts and their impacts on agricultural and livestock production and the Syrian conflict using quantitative and qualitative methods ( De Châtel 2014 ; Gleick 2014 ; Kelley et al. 2015 ; Eklund and Thompson 2017 ; Selby et al. 2017 ; Ide 2018 ; Karnieli et al. 2019 ; Ash and Obradovich 2020 ; Daoudy 2020a , 2021 ; Eklund et al. 2022 ). These reviewed research works have disagreed on what extent the drought’s contribution to the sharp decline in agricultural production and rural livelihood in Syria. Kelley et al. (2015 ) is one of the major empirical studies that argues for the linkage between the multi-year drought and the political instability, which argument is similar to Gleick (2014 ). Other studies have refuted the causal linkage between the drought and the Syrian civil war, but their core reasons for arguing against it have varied.

Several authors point out that the impact of climate shocks on livelihoods is mediated by water governance decisions. This argument downplays the role of climate change as the main driver of livelihood deterioration rather than a contributing factor. Despite being affected by similar rainfall deficits during 2007–2008, farmers in northern Syria generally experienced far worse consequences in productivity compared to northwest Iraq and southeast Turkey ( Eklund and Thompson 2017 ). Turkey’s substantial investment in water infrastructure and placing policies for better management during the 1990s and 2000s seem to have reduced their vulnerability to droughts ( Kelley et al. 2015 ; Eklund and Thompson 2017 ). On the contrary, the Syrian regime’s agricultural expansion policy, unsustainable groundwater use, and economic policy have exacerbated the population’s drought vulnerability. Agricultural expansion schemes in Syria more than doubled the irrigated area from 650,000 ha in 1985 to 1.4 million ha in 2005, driven by “a vision of development through agrarian modernization” ( Selby 2019 , 268). The policy overlooked physical limitations of groundwater resources by over-extracting water from aquifers at a rate of 300 percent or more than the basin’s yield and depleting aquifers prior to the 2007–2008 drought ( Selby 2019 , 266). Groundwater depletion in the region has a major effect on drought vulnerability because groundwater is an important source of water during low rainfall years ( Kelley et al. 2015 ).

Weiss (2015 ) makes a similar observation in Yemen, indicating that governance issues are mainly responsible for groundwater depletion in the country rather than climate-related environmental changes. Factors related to agrarian political economy and governance capacities further affect the vulnerability. The government’s capacity to deal with environmental changes and their impact on local economies and livelihoods is pointed out to be a key mediating factor in the linkage between climate change and violent conflict. The issues related to mismanagement and elite exploitation of climate change are further discussed in the later section of the article.

A few studies found differing climate impacts based on gender and ethnicity. Vulnerability to climate change varies between communities and countries, and intersectional identities of the affected people such as gender, age, and ethnicity influence their capacity to adapt to climate change and resilience ( Thomas et al. 2019 ). Evidence from Iran shows how women are forced to carry the “double burden” of doing off-farm work activities such as weeding or thinning cotton for minimal wages, in addition to the regular household and on-farm tasks ( Keshavarz, Karami, and Vanclay 2013 ). In Syria, the mechanization of agriculture has led to a significant loss of rural employment and disproportionately affected women ( Selby 2019 , 267). The disproportionate effect on women is related to structural gender inequality restricting women’s economic opportunities and wealth accumulation ( Selby 2019 ). This finding aligns with previous literature linking gender and climate change indicating that women are often worse affected by climate impacts due to restrictive norms and rights ( Denton 2002 ). In Israel, pastoralists are often disadvantaged due to the Israeli state’s resource allocation policies prioritizing farmers. In the northern Negev region, the state’s land appropriation disproportionately affected agri-pastoralist Bedouin tribes during the early 1900s. This has led to higher vulnerability of the Bedouins during droughts ( Tubi and Feitelson 2016 ). A similar pattern of marginalization is found in Hasakah, a region in northern Syria, where the state turned open range lands into farmlands ( Selby 2019 ). The findings on differing vulnerability and impacts on livelihoods are based on a handful of studies, and intersectional approaches are generally absent in most studies reviewed in the analytic essay.

Changes in Migration and Mobility Patterns

Migration represents a critical adaptation strategy for populations affected by climate-induced environmental changes. Existing research examines various linkages between climate-induced environmental changes and migration in the MENA region. The main discussions are related to the contribution of climate shocks in internal and international migration and migration as a source of political instability and conflict. Existing evidence in the reviewed studies does not fully confirm that climate shocks and changing climate conditions are the primary drivers of internal or international migration. The link between displacement and violent conflict seems to be contested as well.

One of the predominant narratives links climate, migration, and insecurity theorizes worsening of livelihood conditions due to climate change has led to distressed migration of rural population to urban or peri-urban areas, which can contribute to greater political instability ( Gleick 2014 ; Kelley et al. 2015 ; Feitelson and Tubi 2017 ; Ash and Obradovich 2020 ). This argument gained prominence after out-migration from drought-affected regions in northern Syria in 2008 and the agricultural sector collapse in 2010 preceded the 2011 uprising.

Several studies focus on empirically examining the migration patterns after the 2007–2008 droughts in the Levant ( De Châtel 2014 ; Gleick 2014 ; Kelley et al. 2015 ; Ash and Obradovich 2020 ). There seems to be a wide-ranging estimation of the scale of internal migration in Syria during this time ( Ide 2018 ). While acknowledging the multiple factors contributing to migration, researchers have debated on the number of displaced people in northern Syria and Iraq amid the 2007–2008 drought. While Gleick (2014 , 334) and  Kelley et al . ( 2015 , 3241–2) estimate ∼1.5 million people to be internally displaced, others suggest 40–60,000 households or ∼ 300,000 displaced people ( Selby et al. 2017 , 254). Several methods are employed in estimating drought-induced migration. For instance, Ash and Obradovich (2020 ) used nightlight intensity as a proxy measure for population change, which seemed to detect the changes in population in drought-affected regions. Satellite imagery can be analyzed for measuring agricultural land use, which can be a proxy indicator for out-migration ( Eklund et al. 2022 ). Others relied on official statistics and survey data, which are based on a combination of census, fieldwork, and expert assessment (e.g., OCHA 2009 ). Nightlight intensity and satellite imagery are effective measurements of population changes, but remote sensing data provide little context about who moved, to where, and why. Fieldwork-based studies such as De Châtel (2014 ) provide insights into the socio-economic circumstances of migrants and their political orientation. A UN rapid assessment report is based on various UN-led field reports and assessments during 2006–2008 and supplies valuable on-the-ground information including changing migration patterns, children’s school enrollment, and water availability ( OCHA 2009 ). The evidence indicates that migration after the drought was indeed significant, although we cannot exactly say the scale of it. The question is whether these migrants play a role in the subsequent uprising and civil war.

Critics of this narrative argue that the Syrian uprising emerged due to political discontent, economic recession, youth unemployment, discrimination, and injustice, not because of the mass climate migrants ( De Châtel 2014 ; Selby et al. 2017 ; Daoudy 2020a ). Eklund et al. (2022 ) suggest migration triggered by the 2007–2008 droughts did not play a significant role in the uprising because migrants were likely to have returned as early as 2010 based on the satellite images showing full recovery of agricultural activities in drought-affected areas ( Eklund et al. 2022 ). Rural-to-urban migration in the MENA region is rather influenced by pre-existing socio-economic conditions and political decisions. For example, in Syria, the introduction of neoliberal agrarian policies by the government generated a significant degree of insecurity in the rural populations and prompted rural-to-urban migration ( De Châtel 2014 ; Selby 2019 ). And region’s demographic trend has a much greater and long-lasting impact on the pressure in urban areas. For instance, the urban population in Syria is estimated to have grown from 8.9 million in 2002 to 13.8 million in 2010, and most migrants lived in informal settlements with poor infrastructure and no jobs ( Kelley et al. 2015 ).

The narratives on climate change and migration in the MENA region in existing literature reflect how countries perceive climate-induced migration as a source of conflict and insecurity. Jordan, for instance, fears the influx of migration from the MENA region, mostly Palestine, Iraq, and Syria, would worsen the country’s water scarcity and thus security ( Weinthal, Zawahri, and Sowers 2015 ). Fears of “climate refugees” from Africa have shaped Israel’s discriminatory discourses and practices against African refugees and Bedouin communities inside the country ( Weinthal et al. 2015 ). Media reports have suggested that climate shocks in the MENA regions, where asylum seekers and irregular migrants originated from, have affected their decision to migrate ( O'Hagan 2015 ). More than 2.2 million migrants without legal permits have amassed at EU external borders during 2009–2017, and most migrants during this period were from the MENA region ( Cottier and Salehyan 2021 , 2).

Findings from existing research refute the idea of climate shocks would trigger refugee flows from the MENA region. Climate shocks and precipitation deficits are not linked to the increase of out-migration from the MENA region to Europe ( Abel et al. 2019 ; Cottier and Salehyan 2021 ). Severe droughts and drier weather conditions in the MENA region are associated with the reduced migration flow to Europe, which is contradictory from the popular media narrative about “climate refugees” ( Cottier and Salehyan 2021 ). This finding alone suggests that migration can be an “investment,” because the extra income generated from additional rain reduces financial barriers to emigrating ( Cottier and Salehyan 2021 , 6). The correlation between rainfall variability and asylum-seeking flows has been found during 2010–2012 when the Arab Spring swept a dozen MENA countries but not during other periods between 2006 and 2015 ( Abel et al. 2019 ). This finding demonstrates that the impact of climate change on generating asylum-seeking flows seems to be conditional on the origin country’s political stability.

Armed Group’s Tactical Considerations

Existing research specifically focusing on how climate change affects armed groups’ tactics is sparse in the MENA region (exception of Linke and Ruether 2021 ), but several research works demonstrate that armed groups may escalate their tactics due to the increased environmental stress on water and agricultural land. Changing climate conditions and weather shocks adversely affect water availability for agriculture. This trend underscores the notion that the strategic importance of controlling water and water infrastructure could emerge as an effective instrument for exerting pressure to local populations in times of armed conflicts. Previous research supplies evidence on how water is weaponized by armed groups, which is a case of escalation of tactics ( Grech-Madin 2020 ). Water weaponization is defined as the “intentional or unintentional damage or destruction of (sensitive) components of the water infrastructure like dams, treatment plants, pumping stations, piping and canal systems, sewage plants, reservoirs, wells, etc” ( von Lossow 2016 , 84).

Water has been used as both a target and a weapon by state and non-state actors. Existing studies focus on how non-state armed groups and government militaries have strategically attacked or captured water and other environmental infrastructure ( King 2015 ; von Lossow 2016 ; Sowers, Weinthal, and Zawahri 2017 ; Gleick 2019 ; Daoudy 2020b ). Water scarcity in the region is an incentivizing factor for government troops and armed groups to use water to incur damage to the local population. Attacks on water pipes, sanitation and desalination plants, water treatment, pumping and distribution facilities, and dams have occurred in Syria, Libya, and Yemen during civil wars. Targeting of water infrastructure also occurs in protracted conflict situations such as the Israel and Palestine conflict when Israel was accused of attacking wells in Gaza City ( von Lossow 2016 , 84). Particular attention has been drawn to rebel groups’ ability to use water for strategic but as well psychological terrorism ( King 2015 ).

The weaponization of water is not limited to targeting water infrastructure during wartime. Increasing water scarcity and the importance of water access influence the strategic calculation by armed groups on when and where they would deploy violence ( King 2015 ). Non-state armed groups such as the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq are known to have fought over the control of water infrastructure in the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers as part of their expansion strategy ( von Lossow 2016 ). Armed groups fight more intensely during the growing season, which is linked to tax revenue from agricultural harvest and control of the population who rely on farming ( Linke and Ruether 2021 , 116).

Armed groups can also use water as a tool of governance. By providing water and electricity to the local population, the Islamic State achieved ideological credibility as well as legitimacy over the local population, which was a core component of the IS claim of statehood ( King 2015 ; von Lossow 2016 ). Supplying water is a crucial governance function, so armed groups can obstruct water infrastructure to damage the conflict party’s control and legitimacy.

Elite Exploitation

Previous research demonstrates how elite exploitation is linked to protests and violent conflict by focusing on corruption, elite capture of disaster relief, and elite bias in the MENA region. Political patronage and ethnic, tribal, and religious networks for political mobilization shape elite behavior in the region. Political patronage is not unique to the MENA region, but clientelism explains the viability of political networks of some political elites in the MENA region who maintained power through providing resources and preferential treatment in return for votes, loyalty, and compliance ( Herb 1999 ; Haddad 2012 ). Social fabrics of the MENA are woven with diverse ethnic, tribal, and religious groups, and these minorities have also been part of political cleavage structures ( Belge and Karakoç 2015 ). Political mobilization along ethnic, tribal, and religious lines has been effective in the contexts when these identities are contested ( Yiftachel 1996 ). In the following, three main findings from existing research are outlined.

Climate change may increase opportunities for elites to appropriate humanitarian aid for their benefit, and elite exploitation can worsen the conflict risk amid climate-induced disasters and environmental scarcities. The risk of politicization of humanitarian and development aid has been extensively studied ( Doocy and Lyles 2018 ; Alqatabry and Butcher 2020 ). In situations of climate-induced disasters, local and central elites can have a significant influence on the planning and distribution of humanitarian aid. Political elites can be biased in their relationship with local elites, and this elite bias can have implications for local-level politics ( Brosché and Elfversson 2012 ). After the 2007–2008 drought in Syria, the Assad government directed the UN-led relief efforts to almost entirely focus on the Arab district of Al-Shaddadi, although the Kurdish communities were equally or worse affected ( Selby 2019 , 270). Unequal aid distribution can increase intercommunal tensions during droughts. State intervention can reduce the risk of conflict amid climate-related natural disasters. Tubi and Feitelson (2016 ) demonstrate how proactive relief provisions during droughts have reduced communal violence between Bedouin herders and Jewish farmers in Israel. The findings from Tubi and Feitelson (2016 ) confirm that the state’s capacity to adapt and absorb shocks remains essential for the inhabitants’ perceived marginal benefits and the opportunity cost of conflict ( Post et al. 2016 ).

Powerful elites compete over acquiring land and water resources from weak and vulnerable groups. Mismanagement and corruption in the public sector are other factors that affect the population’s access to water and basic services, which are simultaneously hampered by climate change ( Kim and Swain 2017 ). In Yemen, most communal conflict occurs over water and land when tribal elites compete with one another ( Weiss 2015 ). In southern Iraq, a large volume of water is illegally diverted for commercial farms owned by elites, which worsens water scarcity ( Mason 2022 ). Donor-funded projects for repairing Basra’s aging water infrastructure after the 2003 invasion, worth 2 billion USD over nearly two decades, were succumbed to widespread corruption ( Mason 2022 ). Bureaucratic procedures endow opportunities for officials to extort bribes such as well-licensing in Syria and water development project licensing in Lebanon ( De Châtel 2014 ; Mason and Khawlie 2016 ). In Syria, the government’s requirement to annually renew well licences was an opportunity for security personnel and local officials to collect bribes ( De Châtel 2014 , 12). Protestors in Dara’a, Syria initially demanded to end corruption in the water sector ( De Châtel 2014 ). In Iraq, the epidemic of corruption in the water sector endowed youth and urban poor grievances against the state, which led to widespread protests ( Human Rights Watch 2019 ).

Although the MENA region is a climate change hotspot, governance failures, and mismanagement account for declining water access ( Mason and Khawlie 2016 ; Selby et al. 2017 ; Daoudy 2021 ). Elites in the MENA region have leveraged climate change to explain some of the governance failures in the water and agriculture sectors. The Syrian state and security apparatus have exploited the narratives around climate change by portraying Syria as a “naturally water-scarce” country, although the reality on the ground shows a man-made water crisis due to corruption and inefficient management by the government authorities ( De Châtel 2014 , 9). Similarly, the Lebanese government blamed climate change for the reduction of water flow in the Hasbani Basin, while civil society representatives accused the government of “systematically neglecting their concerns” about water access ( Mason and Khawlie 2016 , 1352–3).

Tensions over transboundary water sharing may continue to rise in the MENA region ( Bulloch and Darwish 1993 ; Amery 2002 ). The Euphrates River and Tigris River are important water sources for Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran, and Turkey controls the water flow through the investment in the Southeastern Anatolia Project consisting of twenty-two large reservoirs and nineteen hydroelectric power stations on the upper tributaries of the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers. Karnieli et al. (2019 ) argue that Turkey’s transboundary investment and dam filling to be the primary driver of 2007–2008 droughts in Syria instead of climate change. This might be inconsequential because Turkey released additional water to Syria during the drought (see Kibaroglu and Scheumann 2011 , 297). As long as the downstream countries, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, see their domestic water problems to be attributed to the upstream dams in Turkey (e.g., Al-Muqdadi et al. 2016 ), transboundary rivers can be a source of interstate tension—although it is unlikely to develop into a full-scale armed conflict ( Bencala and Dabelko 2008 ). The impact of climate change in transboundary water governance is still an under-researched area that deserves more attention. Another area that can be a subject for further research is a growing sub-national competition over water such as brewing tension within Iraq due to the Kurdish Regional Government’s dam building plans ( Tinti 2023 ).

Existing evidence demonstrates that climate impacts, particularly droughts and drying trends, contribute to armed conflict in various ways. This section weighs in on the findings from the analysis to evaluate the overall framework of pathways to climate insecurity in the MENA region. The synthesis of findings highlights consensus and disagreement in existing studies and identifies the areas for further research.

Water scarcity in the MENA region is apparent at multiple scales, from domestic to transboundary, and has various implications for social vulnerability and political stability. The region’s water insecurity is as much driven by governance challenges as climatic and environmental trends. Severe droughts in the Levant during 2007–2009 appear to have led to the decline in agricultural production in the affected areas, but the drought vulnerability is mediated by groundwater availability, the viability of irrigation systems, and the capacity of water infrastructure ( Kelley et al. 2015 ). Decades of mismanagement of water resources and institutional failings undermine adaptive capacities in the region, demonstrated in examples from Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq ( Weiss 2015 ; Mason and Khawlie 2016 ; Selby 2019 ; Mason 2022 ).

The depletion of groundwater in parts of the MENA region is largely attributed to the government’s unsustainable agricultural and water policies. Groundwater offers an important source of reserve during droughts, and the unsustainable use of groundwater adversely affects farmers’ drought vulnerability. Government subsidies on fuels encouraged farmers to install diesel pumps to use groundwater for irrigation, without consideration for sustainability in Yemen and Syria ( Weiss 2015 ; Selby 2019 ). These governments’ agricultural and economic policies resulted in farmers growing more water-intensive crops such as cotton and citrus fruits, which accelerated groundwater depletion. Political elites used fuel subsidies to ensure support from farmers at the expense of the environment. These unsustainable water and agricultural policies are not technical “mismanagement” but embedded in a much larger political context and ideology ( Daoudy 2021 , 13). Considering political factors in climate vulnerability is an important aspect to understand the climate-conflict nexus in the MENA region.

This analytic essay also looks into the important debate about the contribution of droughts in the Syrian uprising and subsequent civil war. Fourteen out of thirty-nine existing studies focus on the Syrian conflict and examine various linkages between the conflict and climate-related environmental factors. The popular narrative portrays the Syrian civil war as a climate conflict that is triggered by climate-induced agricultural collapse resulting in mass displacement ( Gleick 2014 ; Werrell, Femia, and Sternberg 2015 ). Research refutes this narrative by contesting the empirical foundations. Drought-displaced people in urban or peri-urban areas did not participate in street protests ( De Châtel 2014 ), and a significant proportion of the displaced returned to northern Syria before the revolution began ( Eklund and Thompson 2017 ; Eklund et al. 2022 ). Reviewing the literature demonstrates that attributing the onset of the Syrian civil war solely to climate change lacks empirical substantiation. Nevertheless, climate-related environmental changes, such as falling groundwater levels, have significant impact on natural resources and livelihoods, which can consequently undermine human and environment security.

Internal migration is more prominent than international migration in the research focusing on climate-induced mobility in the MENA region. This is similar to other studies with different regional focus (e.g., Burrows and Kinney 2016 ). The disruption of the rural livelihoods appears to be a strong push factor in Syria, which can be worsened by droughts ( Fröhlich 2016 ). Data on migration seem to be a challenge in unpacking this complex phenomenon. It is challenging to disentangle environmental changes from economic drivers in migration decision-making. Satellite-based data provide reasonable proxy measures for in- and out-migration in locations (e.g., Ash and Obradovich 2020 ), but they do not offer insights on who moved from where to where and why. More studies incorporating qualitative data are needed to further the understanding of climate-induced internal migration.

There is clear evidence that armed groups have escalated their tactics by weaponizing water in the MENA region. Several studies demonstrate how armed groups escalate their tactics by weaponizing water. Such a wartime trend indicates a heightened risk for civilians and long-term consequences by destructing key water infrastructures. This finding is highly policy relevant for strengthening and enforcing international laws for civilian protection during armed conflict (see Grech-Madin 2021 ). In relation to the armed group’s tactics, more research is needed to unpack the role of climate-related environmental factors in the armed group’s recruitment and tactical decisions.

The findings on differing vulnerability and gendered impacts on livelihoods are based on a handful of studies, and intersectional approaches are generally absent in most studies reviewed in the analytic essay. How climate shocks have varying impacts on people based on their gender, age, livelihoods, ethnicity, and combinations of these identities is missing. If marginalization and grievances are key processes of climate-induced conflict, how climate change affects different segments of the population differently needs better understanding.

The relationship between climate change and violent conflict is primarily indirect and varied, cautioning against generalized assumptions. How climate change influences the risk of violent conflict in the MENA region is mediated by political economy, institutional shortcomings, and elite competition. The risk of violent conflict is contingent on pre-existing negative socio-political relationships, types of political systems, and different climate vulnerabilities of various social groups. Gendered climate vulnerabilities need better understanding for establishing the linkage between climate vulnerability and insecurity. Carefully examining existing evidence is important for both over general climate security discussions as well as for the policy discussions on the MENA region, which has remained a focal point of scholarly and policy debates concerning climate security ( Daoudy, Sowers, and Weinthal 2022 , 7).

Disentangling specific climate impacts is also crucial for enhancing government’s climate adaptation and disaster mitigation policies in the MENA region. Civil society representatives from the MENA region have been concerned that states and political elites blame climate change to legitimize inequalities and to devoid accountability ( Selby et al. 2017 ; Kausch 2022 ). As existing research demonstrated, water and food insecurity in the region is driven by a lack of state capacity to properly manage natural resources and the integrity of public institutions in the MENA region.

Future research should pay attention to other types of climate hazards, including floods, heatwaves, and dust storms. Existing research primarily focuses on droughts and precipitation deficits, failing to account for heatwaves and flooding, which also are common in the MENA region. Floods are understudied despite their severe humanitarian impact. For instance, heavy flooding forced more than 84,000 people to displacement in Yemen, 13,000 people in Iran, and 5,000 people in northern Iraq in 2021 ( IDMC 2023 ). How flooding affects livelihood conditions and social vulnerability would be considerably different from droughts. Studies from other regions suggest floods are not associated with communal violence ( Petrova 2022 ). Ultra-heatwaves are likely to worsen without substantial government interventions ( Zittis et al. 2021 ), and their impact on oil exploitation, tourism, and urban areas demands more research. Oil and tourism industries are economic backbones of several MENA countries, and adverse impact on these sectors is likely lead to ripple effects on the society. A decrease in oil production due to extreme heatwaves and dust storms will affect public service provisions by the governments, which can be a source of instability as previous research points out (e.g., Mason 2022 ).

Future research should look at non-violent conflicts, especially protests linked to climate change in the MENA region. There is already a substantial debate on the role of food security in political stability, such as in the Arab Spring ( Werrell and Femia 2013 ; Schilling et al. 2020 ). And few studies focus on under what conditions droughts and floods can lead to non-violent conflicts such as political unrest and protests ( Ide, Kristensen, and Bartusevičius 2021 ; Ide et al. 2021 ). Youth climate activists in the region have demanded their respective governments to take proactive climate actions ( Altaeb 2022 ). Climate change is becoming a politically salient topic, and the MENA region’s civil society has voiced its concerns about the inaction and growing uncertainty about the future. How the region’s climate activism interacts with politics appears to be an important area for future research.

The narrative about climate change and conflict in the MENA region is shaped by both scientific projections but also a “long history of colonial and postcolonial scholarship invoking environmental determinism as an explanation for underdevelopment” ( Daoudy et al. 2022 , 7). This calls for more “open” and critical approaches in researching the climate-conflict nexus in the region. The evidence from existing studies shows that current water and food insecurity in the MENA region are outcomes of domestic politics and institutional shortcomings rather than past climate change. This highlights the importance of governance reforms for enhancing adaptative capacity in the region ( Sowers et al. 2011 ). Improved understanding of how vulnerability to climate change interacts with political systems, institutions, and social relations can inform policy development. This enhanced understanding can equip relevant stakeholders to more effectively anticipate, prevent, and respond to the intricate web of risks entwining climate change and violent conflict, while concurrently enhancing resilience-building efforts.

We adopt SIPRI’s definition of the MENA region, which includes Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), North Yemen (–1990), South Yemen (–1990) and Yemen; (NA) Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. See “Regional coverage,” See SIPRI databases at https://www.sipri.org/databases/regional-coverage .

The search string was the following: AB=((climat* OR "climat* change" OR "climat* variability" OR rainfall OR precipitation OR drought OR "water scarcity" OR "land degradation" OR weather OR disaster OR temperature OR warming OR "sea level rise" OR desertification OR famine OR “soil erosion” OR flood*) AND (conflict OR jihad* OR armed OR insurgen* OR rebel* OR terror* OR violen* OR war) AND ("middle east*" OR “north africa*” OR MENA OR algeria OR bahrain OR egypt OR iran OR Iraq OR israel OR jordan OR kuwait OR lebanon OR libya OR morocco OR oman OR palestin* OR qatar OR “saudi arabia” OR syria OR tunisia OR “united arab emirates” OR yemen OR “western sahara”)).

Here, we use SIPRI’s definition of the MENA region, which includes Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), North Yemen (–1990), South Yemen (–1990) and Yemen; (NA) Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia.

Author’s note : This work is supported by funding from the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs as part of SIPRI’s Climate Change and Security Project and the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for SIPRI’s Climate-Related Security and Development Risks Project. We would like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive feedback for improving the manuscript. We are indebted to Florian Krampe, Farah Hegazi, and Kheira Tarif for their helpful comments throughout the writing process.

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Opinion Guest Essay

An Idyll on the Shores of a Toxic Lake

Supported by

Text by Jaime Lowe

Photographs by Nicholas Albrecht

Ms. Lowe is the author of, most recently, “Breathing Fire: Female Inmate Firefighters on the Front Lines of California’s Wildfires.” Mr. Albrecht is a photographer based in Oakland, Calif.

• March 29, 2024

There are two ways to experience the town of Bombay Beach, Calif., as a visitor: gawk at the spectacle or fall into the vortex. Thousands of tourists cruise through each year, often without getting out of their cars, to see decaying art installations left over from an annual mid-March gathering of artists, photographers and documentarians known jokingly as the Bombay Beach Biennale. When I went to the town for the first time in 2021, I was looking for salvation in this weird desert town on the Salton Sea south of Palm Springs and Joshua Tree National Park. I dropped in, felt vibes and left with stories. I stared at the eccentric large-scale art, posted photos on Instagram of ruin porn and a hot pink sign on the beach that said, “If you’re stuck, call Kim.” I posed in front of a mountain of painted televisions, swung on a swing over the edge of the lake’s retreating shoreline and explored the half-buried, rusted-out cars that make up an abandoned ersatz drive-in movie theater. On that trip, it felt as if I were inside a “Mad Max” simulation, but I was only scratching the surface of the town.

I returned in December to try to understand why Bombay Beach remains so compelling, especially as extreme weather — heat, hurricanes and drought — and pollution wreak ever more intense havoc on it. Summer temperatures can reach 120 degrees Fahrenheit, tremors from the San Andreas Fault strike regularly, bomb testing from nearby military facilities can be heard and felt, and the air is so toxic from pesticide use, exhaust fumes, factory emissions and dust rising from the retreating Salton Sea that one study showed asthma rates among children in the region are three times the national average. By the end of the decade, the Salton Sea, California’s largest inland body of water, at about 325 square miles, may lose three-quarters of its volume; in the past 20 years, the sea’s surface area has shrunk about 38 square miles .

But people who live in Bombay Beach stay because the town offers a tight-knit community in the midst of catastrophe. Though its residents contend with environmental adversity on a daily basis, they’re also demonstrating how to navigate the uncertain future we all face — neglect, the fight for scarce resources, destruction of home, the feeling of having no place to go. They are an example of how people can survive wild climate frontiers together.

The 250 or so town residents live in the low desert on the east shore of the Salton Sea, which formed in 1905 when the then-flush Colorado River spilled into a depression, creating a freshwater lake that became increasingly saline. There used to be fish — mullet and carp, then tilapia. In the 1950s and ’60s, the area was marketed as a tourist destination and was advertised as Palm Springs by the Sea. More tourists visited Bombay Beach than Yosemite. There were yacht clubs, boat races and water skiing. It became a celebrity magnet: Frank Sinatra hung out there; so did the Beach Boys and Sonny and Cher.

Eventually, as agricultural runoff kept accumulating in a body of water with no drainage, it became toxic and created a lake with salinity that is now 50 percent greater than that of the ocean. In the 1980s, dead fish washed up on the sand, car ruins rusted in the sun, tires rotted on the shore. Tourism vanished. But some in the community hung on. One way to define Bombay Beach is through environmental disaster, but another way is as an example of how to live through disaster and how to live in general.

Candace Youngberg, a town council member and a bartender at the Ski Inn, remembers a very different Bombay Beach. When she was growing up in the 1980s, she’d ride bikes with neighborhood children and run from yard to yard in a pack because there were no fences. But over time, the town changed. With each passing year, she watched necessities disappear. Now there’s no gas station, no laundromat, no hardware store. Fresh produce is hard to come by. A trailer that was devoted to medical care shut down. In 2021, 60.9 percent of Bombay Beach residents lived below the poverty line, compared with the national average of 12.6 percent.

As painful as it was to witness the town of her youth disappear and as deep as the problems there go, Ms. Youngberg admits that adversity bonded those who stayed. She wanted to return Bombay Beach to the version of the town she remembered, to recreate a beautiful place to live year-round, not just in winter, not just during the art season, not just for the tourists posing in front of wreckage. She wanted people to see the homes, the town, the community that once thrived thrive again. With the art came attention and the potential for more resources. She got on the Bombay Beach Community Services District, a town council, and started to work toward improvements like fixing the roads and planting trees to improve air quality.

It might just be that Bombay Beach is a small town, but when I visited last winter, there was something that felt more collaborative, as though everybody’s lives and business and projects overlapped. I’m not sure the community that’s there now started out as intentional, but when fragmented groups of people come together as custodians of an enigmatic space, responsible for protecting it and one another, community is inevitable. Plus, there’s only one place to socialize, one place to gossip, one place to dance out anxiety and only about two-thirds of a square mile to wander. Whether you like it or not, your neighbors are your people — a town in its purest form.

When I was there, I walked the streets with Denia Nealy, an artist who goes by Czar, and my friend Brenda Ann Kenneally, a photographer and writer, who would shout names, and people would instantly emerge. A stranger offered a handful of Tater Tots to Czar and me in a gesture that felt emblematic: Of course a complete stranger on an electric unicycle would cruise by and share nourishment. I was given a butterfly on a stick, which I carried around like a magic wand because that seemed appropriate and necessary. I was told that if I saw a screaming woman walking down the street with a shiv in her hand, not to worry and not to make eye contact and she’d leave me alone; it was just Stabby. There was talk of the Alcoholics Anonymous meeting on the beach, the weekly church sermon led by Jack the preacher (who is also a plumber), a potluck lasagna gathering.

Last year Ms. Kenneally created a trash fashion show/photo series for the Biennale in which she created couture designs out of trash collected from the beach, enlisted regulars in town to model the outfits, then photographed them. (She exhibited a similar series at this year’s festival as well.) The work was a way to showcase the people and the place. Jonathan Hart, a fireworks specialist who slept on the beach, posed like a gladiator; a woman who normally rode through town with a stuffed Kermit the Frog toy strapped to her bike was wrapped in a clear tarp and crown, looking like royalty emerging from the Salton Sea. The environment was harsh, the poses striking. Each frame straddled the line between glamour and destruction but also showcased a community’s pride in survival. Residents were undaunted by the armor of refuse; in fact, it made them stronger. The detritus, what outsiders might think of as garbage, became gorgeous. The landscape that is often described as apocalyptic became ethereal and magical. And that’s because it is.

On my second day, we went down to the docks at noon, and I found myself sitting on a floral mustard couch watching half a dozen or so people taking turns riding Jet Skis into the sun. The sun was hot, even though it was the cool season. Time felt elastic. Mr. Hart told me that he and some friends had fixed up the water scooters to give everyone in town the chance to blow off some steam, to smile a little. It had been a rough couple of months in the region. In preparation for Hurricane Hilary, which hit Mexico and the southwestern United States last August, 26 volunteers made 200 sandbags and delivered them door to door. Neighbors helped secure as many structures as possible.

Most media outlets reported that the hurricane was downgraded to a tropical storm because that’s the weather system that hit Los Angeles, but it was close to a hurricane in Bombay Beach, with winds hitting 60 miles per hour, and most properties were surrounded by water. Roofs collapsed or blew away entirely. “When faced with something like that, they were like, ‘Boom, we’re on it,’” Ms. Youngberg told me. They were together in disaster and in celebrating survival.

It reminded me of the writer Rebecca Solnit’s book “A Paradise Built in Hell,” which considers the upside to catastrophe. She finds that people rise to the occasion and oftentimes do it with joy because disaster and survival leave a wake of purposefulness, consequential work and community. Disasters require radical acts of imagination and interaction. It seemed that because Bombay Beach lived hard, surviving climate catastrophes like extreme weather on top of everyday extremes, it celebrated even harder. It seemed that in Bombay Beach there’s enough to celebrate if you just get through the day, gaze at the night sky and do it all again in the morning.

A lot of the residents who live there now arrived with trauma. Living there is its own trauma. But somehow the combination creates a place of care and physical and emotional presence. People experience life intensely, as one. It’s a town that is isolated, but in spite of a loneliness epidemic, it doesn’t seem so lonely to be there. I felt unexpected joy in what, from everything I’d read from afar, was a place that might as well have been sinking into the earth. I felt so safe and so happy that if we had sunk into the earth together, it wouldn’t have felt like such a bad way to go.

On my last night in Bombay Beach, I went to the Ski Inn, a bar that serves as the center of all social activity. I’d been in town for only two days, and yet it felt as if I’d been to the Ski Inn a million times, as if I already knew everyone and they knew me. A band was playing, we danced and drank, and I forgot about the 8 p.m. kitchen cutoff. The chef apologized, but he’d been working since 11:45 a.m. and had already cleaned the grill and fryer. He’d saved one mac and cheese for the bartender, and when she heard I hadn’t eaten, she offered to split it with me, not wanting me to go hungry or leave without having tried the mac and cheese.

Bombay Beach is a weird place. And this was an especially weird feeling. I had been instantly welcomed into the fold of community and cared for, even though I was a stranger in a very strange land.

I realized I didn’t want to leave. There were lessons there — how to live with joy and purpose in the face of certain catastrophe, how to exist in the present without the ever presence of doom. Next time, I thought, I’d stay longer, maybe forever, and actually ride a Jet Ski.

Jaime Lowe is a Knight-Wallace journalism fellow at the University of Michigan and the author of, most recently, “Breathing Fire: Female Inmate Firefighters on the Front Lines of California’s Wildfires.” Nicholas Albrecht is a photographer based in Oakland, Calif. His first monograph, “One, No One and One Hundred Thousand,” was the culmination of a multiyear project made while living on the shores of the Salton Sea.

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A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The following individuals served as the primary writing team for the 2014 and 2020 editions of this document:

• Eric Wolff FRS, (UK lead), University of Cambridge
• Inez Fung (NAS, US lead), University of California, Berkeley
• Brian Hoskins FRS, Grantham Institute for Climate Change
• John F.B. Mitchell FRS, UK Met Office
• Tim Palmer FRS, University of Oxford
• Benjamin Santer (NAS), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
• John Shepherd FRS, University of Southampton
• Keith Shine FRS, University of Reading.
• Susan Solomon (NAS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research
• John Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
• Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois

Staff support for the 2020 revision was provided by Richard Walker, Amanda Purcell, Nancy Huddleston, and Michael Hudson. We offer special thanks to Rebecca Lindsey and NOAA Climate.gov for providing data and figure updates.

The following individuals served as reviewers of the 2014 document in accordance with procedures approved by the Royal Society and the National Academy of Sciences:

• Richard Alley (NAS), Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University
• Alec Broers FRS, Former President of the Royal Academy of Engineering
• Harry Elderfield FRS, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge
• Joanna Haigh FRS, Professor of Atmospheric Physics, Imperial College London
• Isaac Held (NAS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
• John Kutzbach (NAS), Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin
• Jerry Meehl, Senior Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research
• John Pendry FRS, Imperial College London
• John Pyle FRS, Department of Chemistry, University of Cambridge
• Gavin Schmidt, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
• Emily Shuckburgh, British Antarctic Survey
• Gabrielle Walker, Journalist
• Andrew Watson FRS, University of East Anglia

The Support for the 2014 Edition was provided by NAS Endowment Funds. We offer sincere thanks to the Ralph J. and Carol M. Cicerone Endowment for NAS Missions for supporting the production of this 2020 Edition.

F OR FURTHER READING

For more detailed discussion of the topics addressed in this document (including references to the underlying original research), see:

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2019: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [ https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc ]
• National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM), 2019: Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration: A Research Agenda [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25259 ]
• Royal Society, 2018: Greenhouse gas removal [ https://raeng.org.uk/greenhousegasremoval ]
• U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), 2018: Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States [ https://nca2018.globalchange.gov ]
• IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C [ https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15 ]
• USGCRP, 2017: Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume I: Climate Science Special Reports [ https://science2017.globalchange.gov ]
• NASEM, 2016: Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/21852 ]
• IPCC, 2013: Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Working Group 1. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis [ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1 ]
• NRC, 2013: Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/18373 ]
• NRC, 2011: Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts Over Decades to Millennia [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12877 ]
• Royal Society 2010: Climate Change: A Summary of the Science [ https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/publications/2010/climate-change-summary-science ]
• NRC, 2010: America’s Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change [ https://www.nap.edu/catalog/12782 ]

Much of the original data underlying the scientific findings discussed here are available at:

• https://data.ucar.edu/
• https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu
• https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu
• https://ess-dive.lbl.gov/
• https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
• https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
• http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu
• http://hahana.soest.hawaii.edu/hot/

Climate change is one of the defining issues of our time. It is now more certain than ever, based on many lines of evidence, that humans are changing Earth's climate. The Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences, with their similar missions to promote the use of science to benefit society and to inform critical policy debates, produced the original Climate Change: Evidence and Causes in 2014. It was written and reviewed by a UK-US team of leading climate scientists. This new edition, prepared by the same author team, has been updated with the most recent climate data and scientific analyses, all of which reinforce our understanding of human-caused climate change.

Scientific information is a vital component for society to make informed decisions about how to reduce the magnitude of climate change and how to adapt to its impacts. This booklet serves as a key reference document for decision makers, policy makers, educators, and others seeking authoritative answers about the current state of climate-change science.

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