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The Kerala flood of 2018: combined impact of extreme rainfall and reservoir storage

Abstract. Extreme precipitation events and flooding that cause losses to human lives and infrastructure have increased under the warming climate. In August 2018, the state of Kerala (India) witnessed large-scale flooding, which affected millions of people and caused 400 or more deaths. Here, we examine the return period of extreme rainfall and the potential role of reservoirs in the recent flooding in Kerala. We show that Kerala experienced 53 % above normal rainfall during the monsoon season (till August 21st) of 2018. Moreover, 1, 2, and 3-day extreme rainfall in Kerala during August 2018 had return periods of 75, 200, and 100 years. Six out of seven major reservoirs were at more than 90 % of their full capacity on August 8, 2018, before extreme rainfall in Kerala. Extreme rainfall at 1–15 days durations in August 2018 in the catchments upstream of the three major reservoirs (Idukki, Kakki, and Periyar) had the return period of more than 500 years. Extreme rainfall and almost full reservoirs resulted in a significant release of water in a short-span of time. Therefore, above normal seasonal rainfall (before August 8, 2018), high reservoir storage, and unprecedented extreme rainfall in the catchments where reservoirs are located worsened the flooding in Kerala. Reservoir operations need be improved using a skillful forecast of extreme rainfall at the longer lead time (4–7 days).

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• Combined signatures of atmospheric drivers, soil moisture, and moisture source on floods in Narmada River basin, India J. Nanditha et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06244-x
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• Epizootics of epizootic ulcerative syndrome among estuarine fishes of Kerala, India, under post-flood conditions T. Sumithra et al. 10.3354/dao03465
• Assessment of Nonstationarity and Uncertainty in Precipitation Extremes of a River Basin Under Climate Change S. Ansa Thasneem et al. 10.1007/s10666-021-09752-y
• C-band polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar observations during an extreme precipitation event and associated dynamics over Peninsular India K. Subrahmanyam & K. Kumar 10.1007/s11069-022-05426-4
• Simulation of an extreme rainfall event over Mumbai using a regional climate model: a case study M. Pant et al. 10.1007/s00703-021-00845-7
• Country‐wide flood exposure analysis using Sentinel‐1 synthetic aperture radar data: Case study of 2019 Iran flood S. Sherpa & M. Shirzaei 10.1111/jfr3.12770
• Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling C. Rougé et al. 10.5194/hess-25-1365-2021
• Sensitivity analysis applied to two extreme rainfall events over Kerala using TIGGE ensembles B. George & G. Kutty 10.1007/s00703-022-00863-z
• Evaluating the 2018 extreme flood hazard events in Kerala, India P. Lal et al. 10.1080/2150704X.2020.1730468
• Interaction of a Low-Pressure System, an Offshore Trough, and Mid-Tropospheric Dry Air Intrusion: The Kerala Flood of August 2018 V. Kumar et al. 10.3390/atmos11070740
• Impacts of a massive flood event on the physico-chemistry and water quality of river Pampa in Western Ghats of India A. Saha et al. 10.1080/03067319.2020.1843026
• Deciphering the extreme rainfall scenario over Indian landmass using satellite observations, reanalysis and model forecast: Case studies U. Saha et al. 10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104943
• Role of Extreme Precipitation and Initial Hydrologic Conditions on Floods in Godavari River Basin, India S. Garg & V. Mishra 10.1029/2019WR025863
• Flood 2018 and the status of reservoir-induced seismicity in Kerala, India S. Ramasamy et al. 10.1007/s11069-019-03741-x
• Bias-Corrected Extended-Range Forecast Over India for Hydrological Applications During Monsoon 2020 P. Kumar et al. 10.1007/s00024-022-02998-x
• The anomalous weather parameters that lead to the extreme rainfall of Kerala in August 2018 S. Suneela et al. 10.1007/s00703-023-00974-1
• Impact of Time Step Size on Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in the Numerical Simulation of a Heavy Rainfall Event Over Tamil Nadu, India K. Singh et al. 10.1007/s00024-021-02896-8
• Constructing a complete landslide inventory dataset for the 2018 monsoon disaster in Kerala, India, for land use change analysis L. Hao et al. 10.5194/essd-12-2899-2020
• Assessment of the impact of flood on groundwater hydrochemistry and its suitability for drinking and irrigation in the River Periyar Lower Basin, India A. Krishnakumar et al. 10.1007/s11356-021-17596-y
• Flooding study in the desert climate zone: case study of M’zab valley (Algeria) O. Gueciouer Teffah et al. 10.1080/23249676.2022.2030253
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Vimal Mishra

Saran aaadhar, rahul kumar, dushmanta ranjan pattanaik, amar deep tiwari.

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Research Article

Flood inundation mapping- Kerala 2018; Harnessing the power of SAR, automatic threshold detection method and Google Earth Engine

Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Resources, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

* E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliation International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Dehradun, India

Roles Formal analysis, Methodology, Supervision, Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Indian Space Research Organization, Dehradun, India

Roles Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

Roles Formal analysis, Methodology, Resources, Writing – review & editing

Roles Writing – review & editing

Affiliation Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama, Huntsville, Alabama, United States of America

Roles Visualization

• Varun Tiwari, 
• Vinay Kumar, 
• Mir Abdul Matin, 
• Amrit Thapa, 
• Walter Lee Ellenburg, 
• Nishikant Gupta, 
• Sunil Thapa

• Published: August 19, 2020
• https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324
• Reader Comments

Flood inundation maps provide valuable information towards flood risk preparedness, management, communication, response, and mitigation at the time of disaster, and can be developed by harnessing the power of satellite imagery. In the present study, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture RADAR (SAR) data and Otsu method were utilized to map flood inundation areas. Google Earth Engine (GEE) was used for implementing Otsu algorithm and processing Sentinel—1 SAR data. The results were assessed by (i) calculating a confusion matrix; (ii) comparing the submerge water areas of flooded (Aug 2018), non-flooded (Jan 2018) and previous year’s flooded season (Aug 2016, Aug 2017), and (iii) analyzing historical rainfall patterns to understand the flood event. The overall accuracy for the Sentinel-1 SAR flood inundation maps of 9th and 21st August 2018 was observed as 94.3% and 94.1% respectively. The submerged area (region under water) classified significant flooding as compared to the non-flooded (January 2018) and previous year’s same season (August 2015–2017) classified outputs. Summing up, observations from Sentinel-1 SAR data using Otsu algorithm in GEE can act as a powerful tool for mapping flood inundation areas at the time of disaster, and enhance existing efforts towards saving lives and livelihoods of communities, and safeguarding infrastructure and businesses.

Citation: Tiwari V, Kumar V, Matin MA, Thapa A, Ellenburg WL, Gupta N, et al. (2020) Flood inundation mapping- Kerala 2018; Harnessing the power of SAR, automatic threshold detection method and Google Earth Engine. PLoS ONE 15(8): e0237324. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324

Editor: Guy J-P. Schumann, Bristol University/Remote Sensing Solutions Inc., UNITED STATES

Received: January 7, 2020; Accepted: July 24, 2020; Published: August 19, 2020

Copyright: © 2020 Tiwari et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Data Availability: All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.

Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work.

Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction

Any populated areas which normally fall in tropical regions are prone to floods which is considered as one of the hazardous natural disasters. Heavy rainfall enhances the accumulation of water in the catchments and overflow of water flashing beyond its normal confines are termed as floods. Flood usually varies from place to place and depends on numerous factors such as its severity and time of occurrence. Water inundation due to this disastrous event causes significant damage to human lives, properties, agricultural lands and infrastructure, subsequently affecting the economy [ 1 ]. Flood mitigation planning and management requires knowledge of land use as well as accurate identification and mapping of flood prone areas. Critical and timely estimation for monitoring inundated areas during floods can play a significant role in effective and prompt response for risk assessment. This also provides valuable information to the policy cum decision makers for sustainable management and future preparedness [ 2 ]. Generation of real/near real time accurate water inundation maps are required to see the flow of flood water in the affected areas during the time of disaster. Monitoring the flood extent with the help of space based sensors are more effective in providing near real time information as compared to the ground based techniques.

Space based sensors either optical or synthetic aperture radar (SAR) have shown their potential for monitoring and mapping flood or water inundated areas [ 3 , 4 ]. SAR sensors can penetrate through clouds and heavy rain, thus makes them capable of acquiring data during floods while optical sensors such as multispectral are unable to do the same [ 5 ]. Earlier studies have shown that SAR datasets are preferably being used for mapping and monitoring the flood extent. [ 6 – 11 ]. The techniques used for flood mapping are broadly categorized as (i) conventional and machine learning based classification approach [ 12 – 14 ]; and (ii) threshold based approach [ 15 , 16 ]. The first approach requires ample training data from the field which is difficult to collect during or at the time of floods. Hence, these approaches are least recommended for near real time preparation of flood maps [ 17 , 18 ]. However, threshold based techniques (manual as well as automatic) seem to be more effective for flood map generation. Manual threshold detection techniques are often difficult and challenging, as manually deriving the threshold requires knowledge of a few number of training samples [ 19 – 21 ]. This technique also leads to generation of less-accurate and inconsistent water inundated maps. This happens due to variability in the manually selected threshold values for separating water and non-water pixels [ 16 ].

However, an automatic threshold based approach detects the threshold values automatically for separating water and non-water pixels without the use of any training samples [ 22 , 23 ]. This approach computes image statistics for deriving the optimum thresholds to classify water and non-water pixels. Image tiling and split selection, Kittler and Illingworth’s technique, Global minimum threshold method, Quality index thresholds, Split combination and Otsu image threshold are some of the well-known automatic threshold based techniques used for different applications [ 24 – 27 ]. The Otsu image threshold method is the most widely adopted approach used for flood mapping [ 23 , 28 , 29 ]. This method is based on an adaptive threshold method which measures to evaluate the between-class variance of a threshold at a given level computed from a normalized image histogram. This method is less complex and requires least user interaction making it suitable for large SAR image scenes. Tests of this Otsu algorithm were conducted on eight large scenes of Radarsat-2 data for near-real time detection of water bodies and monitoring their dynamic changes [ 29 ]. An operational and robust framework was proposed for precise flood mapping by conducting tests in the large SAR scenes, for classifying flood and non-flood areas. This Otsu method is capable of providing a more precise flood map using Sentinel-1 SAR scenes for large areas [ 23 ]. Monitoring real time water extent during large-scale flood events also requires data from several sources (social media, remote sensing and topographic data). Rapid estimation of flood extent based on the information shared in real-time using social media such as geo-tagged photographs helps in validation of inundation for flood extent [ 30 ].

Various remote sensing based models with field observation have been used for monitoring and mapping of Kerala 2018 extreme flood events. Hunt et al., explored the circumstances which majorly caused this extreme flood by using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in combination with a hydrological model (WRF-Hydro, run at 125 m resolution) [ 31 ]. Haider et al., used downscaled future and historic climate projections from Coupled Model Inter comparison Project (CMIP5) and the Noah-MP land surface hydrological model, to simulate and observe the projected changes in extreme precipitation and flood events [ 32 ]. The extreme precipitation and runoff conditions observations made by Mishra et al. using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, have shown that the 2018 extreme flood event was unprecedented in the last seven decades from 1951–2018 [ 33 ]. The simulation results by Viswanadhapalli et al., suggested that the high convective instability and transport of mid-tropospheric moisture from the Bay of Bengal were the driving factors behind the heavy rainfall over Kerala in 2018 [ 34 ]. The change in water levels of reservoir storage during extreme rainfall of Kerala in 2018 were also discussed by Ramasamy et al., Anandalekshmi et al.,. The existing six major reservoirs that serve the state would have needed to have 34% more capacity to handle the heavy rainfall, and controlled release might have helped in alleviating the flood disasters [ 35 , 36 ]. These studies suggested that extreme heavy rainfall was the major factor behind this disastrous event and projected climate change could intensify these effects in the near future.

Most of the studies on Kerala flood focused on a hydrological modeling-based approach to study and analyze the reasons behind the flood event; whereas limited focus was on generating near real time water inundation maps. The hydrological model based approach are not suitable as it requires an up-to-date and accurate DEM, AWS (Automatic weather station) data as well as computing infrastructure which is often not available. Lal et al., Vishnu et al., and SK et al., utilized SAR data (Sentinel-1 & ALOS-2 PALSAR) along with a manual threshold-based, conventional and machine learning based classification approaches to prepare flood extent maps and damage assessment [ 37 – 39 ]. Though these studies have shown good results, they used the approach for map generation which requires ample training sample points. Also, the entire process was performed on the desktop based data processing tools which requires enormous time for downloading and processing data. This limits the timely response for providing the flood maps to different decision making agencies for immediate and adequate action. Considering this above methods in a desktop based environment are not suitable for providing rapid processing services critical for a flood response. On the other hand the cloud-based image processing platform utilizing automatic threshold methods are the possible solution. Google Earth Engine (GEE) is a cloud-based image processing platform enabling the rapid processing of such big datasets covering a large area. The GEE has publically made available numerous satellite image collections and provides image analysis functionality at large spatial scales [ 40 ]. In the existing approaches for flood mapping in Kerala no study has been performed which combines openly accessible SAR (Sentinel-1) data and automatic threshold detection techniques in a cloud computing platform (GEE).

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the potential of automatic threshold detection techniques using large SAR scenes in cloud computing platform for rapid and precise mapping of flood affected areas in Kerala, India. In this study, time-series Sentinel-1 SAR data of pre and post flood events and Otsu algorithm [ 41 , 42 ] were utilized in GEE for mapping flood extent or water inundated areas. Rainfall time series analysis was also performed to understand the long term rainfall trend over Kerala.

Materials and methods

The study area selected was the state of Kerala ( Fig 1 ), situated in the southwest part of India (10.8505° N, 76.2711° E with elevation of 54 m Mean Sea Level). The area was severely affected by floods in July-August 2018 which caused substantial loss of lives, and property worth USD 5.8 billion [ 43 ]. The major cities affected were: Chengannur, Pandanad, Edanad, Aranmula, Kozhencherry, Ayiroor, Ranni, Pandalam, Kuttanad, Malappuram, Aluva, Chalakudy, Thiruvalla, Eraviperoor, Vallamkulam, N. Paravur and Cochin.

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Shapefile reprinted from GADM database under a CC BY license, with permission from Global Administrative Areas ( www.gadm.org ), original copyright 2018. The figure was made with ArcGIS 10.3 under a CC BY license, with permission from ESRI ( www.esri.com ).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.g001

The satellite dataset utilized in the study was Sentinel 1 SAR Vertically transmitted Vertically receive (VV) Polarization data ( Table 1 ). VV was preferred over vertically transmitted Horizontally receive (VH), as VV polarization was acquired with medium incident angle and previous research have shown it being most suitable for flood inundation mapping [ 44 – 47 ]. Sentinel-2 optical data and Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) rainfall data of the flooded season (refer Table 1 ) were also utilized for validation of the results.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.t001

Methodology

The flow chart of the detailed methodology adopted in the present study is shown in Fig 2 . The methodology was divided into the following steps:

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.g002

Preprocessing of Sentinel 1 VV SAR images

Sentinel-1 images suffer from erroneous noise, (i.e. rigorous geometric, radiometric corrections, thermal, and speckle) [ 48 ]. Any satellite data requires rigorous pre-processing before it can be utilized for any application.

GEE provides Sentinel-1 VV polarization Ground Range Detected (GRD) images which are already preprocessed using Sentinel-1 algorithm [ 48 ]. The preprocessing includes (i) Orbital file correction to eliminate the orbital noise; (ii) Thermal noise correction to eliminate the noise in the data produced by the sensors during data acquisition process onboard the satellite [ 49 ]. Thermal noise can affect the quality of the data in the areas having low mean signal response detected by the SAR system like lakes, standing water, rivers, etc., (iii) Radiometric calibration, to calibrate RADAR reflectivity (DN) to backscattering coefficient (physical units) which is mainly performed to compare the SAR images of different acquisition dates; and (iv) Terrain correction, to convert Sentinel-1 SLC (Single look complex) data from slant range geometry to a map coordinate system, and to rectify the distortions like foreshortening, layover, or shadowing effects. [ 50 ].

The Lee speckle filter with kernel window size 5x5 was applied in GEE environment to remove speckle noise from the dataset. [ 14 , 51 ]

Classification of water and non-water areas

After preprocessing of Sentinel-1 VV SAR images, the data was classified into two major classes: water and non-water, to determine the water inundated areas. Otsu’s automatic threshold detection method was used to determine optimum threshold for this separation. The Otsu method is typically used for deriving threshold for optical data [ 52 ]. However, some recent studies have suggested that the Otsu method can also be applied in SAR data for separating water and non-water classes [ 53 , 54 ].

The Otsu’s method is a clustering based thresholding method used for separating two classes i.e. foreground from background. The technique assumes that the distribution of image pixel intensities follows a bi-modal histogram, and separates those pixels into two classes (e.g. foreground and background). The optimum threshold value is determined by minimizing the weighted sum of within-class (intra-class) variances of the foreground and background pixels. The mathematical algorithm of Otsu method is described as follows:

ρ = criteria function

ω 0 = Probabilities of class occurrence for background

ω 1 = Probabilities of class occurrence for foreground

μ 0 = Class mean of background

μ 1 = Class mean of foreground

μ T = Total mean grey level of the image

k = Threshold value

Eqs 8 and 9 defines the probabilities of class occurrence and the class mean levels.

Validation and calculation of water inundated areas

The validation of the classified map was done through calculating a confusion matrix. The Sentinel -1 SAR classified images of 9 th and 21 st August 2018 were validated utilizing corresponding Sentinel-2 optical images, acquired on the 10 th and 20 th August 2018. The optical Sentinel 2 image acquired on 10 th and 20 th August were mostly affected with cloud cover therefore, these images were first preprocessed to remove clouds/ bad pixels. The cloud masking utilizes Sentinel-2 Band QA60, a quality flag band, to identify and mask out flagged cloud and cirrus pixels. After that, reference samples were randomly identified and collected using visual interpretation approach, for water and non-water class for the area that were not masked out due to cloud cover. The areas which were masked out due to cloud cover in sentinel-2 data, the reference samples were collected using sentinel-1 data.

The collected reference samples (from sentinel-2) were overlaid on Sentinel-1 SAR images of 9 th and 21 st August 2018. The backscatter values from water and non-water class were extracted and examined. It was observed that water class (Backscatter value = -23.53±2.44 db) exhibits low backscatter than non-water class (Backscatter value = -8.78±1.49 db) as shown in Fig 3 . Then the same rule was utilized for collecting reference samples from Sentinel -1 SAR data (random sampling) for the areas which were affected by clouds. The aptness of the Otsu’s method was assessed by deriving not only the overall accuracy, but also individual class accuracies. The validation was also performed by (i) comparing the area submerged under water in the classified images of flooded (August 2018), non-flooded (January 2018) and previous year’s same month data (August of 2015, 2016 and 2017); and (ii) analyzing the rainfall data for confirming the flood event.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.g003

Analyzing the rainfall data

Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) is a quasi-global rainfall dataset prepared by blending satellite imagery with in-situ station data [ 55 ]. It has daily temporal resolution with 0.05 degree spatial resolution. Studies has been done in the past to evaluate the accuracy of the CHIRPS data over Indian region. Gupta, V. et al., [ 56 ] reported higher correlation with station data (>0.80) and lower systematic error (<10%) of CHIRPS rainfall over Kerala region. Similar results were also observed by Prakash, S. et al., [ 57 ]. This signifies that the CHIRPS rainfall has good potential for hydro metrological studies in this region. The linear trend analysis was performed to study the overall rainfall trend over the study area. Cumulative rainfall plot is used to analyze the variation of precipitation during monsoon season June, July and August (JJA) between 2015 and 2018. This period was selected to comply with the inundation analysis. Trend analysis during JJA (1981–2018) was also performed to monitor the long term rainfall pattern. The selected period of rainfall data was based on the recommendation of World Meteorological Organization (WMO)—WMO recommends a period of at least 30 years for the assessment of climatic change [ 58 ]. The advantage of having climatic data for longer period enables us to perform comparison of trends across different flood effected locations.

Results and discussion

Time series backscatter profile was also examined at the flooded location as shown in Fig 4 . The backscattered vs. time curve was smoothed utilizing Fourier transform smoothening technique [ 59 ]. Since water behaves as a smooth surface, the graph shows sudden decrease in the backscatter signal at the time of the flood (August 2018). Changes in the backscatter value describe the occurrence of the flood event in August 2018. The August 2018 flood event was also reported in the news [ 60 , 61 ]. The low backscatter values (function of surface roughness) in the month of August 2018 were due to the increase in water inundation (mainly due to the flood event) which again went up in September 2018 because of the decrease in water inundation (post flood event).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.g004

Water inundation maps from 2015–2018 and different seasons of 2018 were developed as depicted in Figs 5 and 6 respectively. Our analysis clearly show that the area submerged under water increased in the classified map of August 2018 as compared to the maps of the same month from 2015 to 2017 ( Table 2 ). Similarly, in the classified images, water covered areas observed were less in pre-flood and post flood acquired data of 2018 (January-April and September) ( Fig 6 and Table 2 ).

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https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.g006

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.t002

Fig 7 shows the graph between the different years (August 2015–2018) and the area submerged under water; and Fig 5 depicts a graph between different seasons (2018) and the area covered by water. It can be interpreted from the above graphs that the extent of the area in August 2018 is maximum as compared to other years (2015–2017) and seasons (January-September 2018). This clearly indicates the occurrence of a flood event in August 2018.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.g007

The accuracy assessment was performed on the 9 th and 21 st August 2018 flood maps. The overall accuracy of the classification was found to be 94.73% and 94.71% with a kappa coefficient of 0.87 and 0.88 respectively. The individual class accuracy of the classification is depicted in Fig 8 . High classification accuracy demonstrates the potential of the Otsu’s algorithm for classifying the water and non-water pixels.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.g008

Sentinel-1 SAR operates in C band with its penetration capability ranges between ~5.6cm. Presence of clouds and rain droplets with thickness more than 7.5 cm at the time of data acquisition attenuates signal which result in noisy sentinel-1 images. This may be the reason for misclassification. However, using L or X band sensors can overcome this kind of uncertainty as these sensors have high penetration capability then C band.

The variation of the backscatter values was also examined using non-water sample points used in the validation. The backscatter response of the non-water sample points were examined for the month of Aug. 2015–2018 as depicted in Fig 9 . It was observed that during the flood event (Aug. 2018), the backscatter values of the non-water class exhibits low backscatter values with a mean and average deviation value of -23.52 ± 2.14 db respectively. Contradictory, the backscatter values of the non-water class in non-flood year’s shows low backscattering i.e. -7.45 db ≤ Mean backscatter≤ -6.23 db and average deviation of ±1.8 db respectively. In addition to inundation delineation of the 2018 flood event, cumulative rainfall for the Kerala district was analyzed to provide further context to the magnitude of the flooding event. Fig 10 shows the cumulative rainfall during JJA for four different locations which were severely affected by floods. It was observed that all the locations received more amount of rainfall during 2018 as compared to other years (2015–2018).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.g009

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.g010

Cumulative rainfall during 2018 was calculated to be 1.5 times higher than the average of cumulative rainfall for the period 2015–2018. This clearly signifies that rainfall was one of the driving factors for the flood event. Hunt et al., [ 31 ] have done the reservoirs capacity assessment of the six major reservoir of Kerala using WRF hydrological model where they depict that flooding event would have not taken place if the capacity of the six reservoirs would have been 34% more.

Further analysis was performed to detect long term (1981–2018) rainfall trend during JJA. Fig 11a depicts the spatial variability of annual monsoon trend of rainfall over Kerala state from 1981–2018. It was observed that majority of the locations in Kerala have shown positive trends. Statistically significant trend (confidence level >95%) was extracted and illustrated in Fig 11b . It was observed that major flood affected locations (described in methods and material section) in Kerala have shown statistically significant increasing trend of JJA rainfall from 1981–2018. The increasing trend varies between 5 to 20 mm per year. Similar findings were depicted in Ali et al., [ 32 ] and Sharmila S, [ 62 ] where surface hydrological model was utilized to observed and projected changes in extreme precipitation and flood events. Their study demonstrate that the multi-day flood events are projected to increase with a faster rate in the future than the single day events.

a) Pixel wise trend analysis of annual monsoon rainfall from 1981–2018 over Kerala, India; b) Pixel wise signification trend analysis (95% confidence level.) of annual monsoon rainfall from 1981–2018 over Kerala, India. Shapefile reprinted from GADM database under a CC BY license, with permission from Global Administrative Areas ( www.gadm.org ), original copyright 2018. The figure was made with ArcGIS 10.3 under a CC BY license, with permission from ESRI ( www.esri.com ).

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.g011

Conclusions and future recommendations

Swift and accurate estimation of water inundated areas can provide valuable and timely information during flood events. In this study, we assessed the Otsu thresolding approach using Sentinel-1 SAR for mapping flood areas. The analyses were done on the GEE platform. The conclusions that can be drawn from this study are as follows: (i) currently available Sentinel-1 SAR allows data retrieval in all weather conditions therefore, has a good potential for mapping water inundated areas at the time of floods specifically in Kerala where more flood are likely to occur in near future ( Fig 11a & 11b ); (ii) Otsu’s method is capable of automatically detecting thresholds for separating water and non-water pixels without requiring user dependent parameter (reference points from the ground) unlike supervised machine learning methods; and (iii) the GEE platform can be used for processing and analysis of the inundation maps without the need for downloading data or high computing hardware. The automated and on-the-fly performance at acceptable accuracy level proves the utility and potential of GEE applications for rapid response in flood inundation mapping. While this paper highlights a proof of concept, further analysis is needed to explore the VH Polarization and band ratio techniques such as VV/VH. Since the Otsu method has been implemented and tested in GEE environment, the method can be tried on other areas for mapping real time flood events without requirement of ground sample points, except for validation. Though Otsu have shown good performance with far and wide case studies for flood mapping. It has limitations, Otsu assumed to have bimodal histogram distribution and also assumed to possess a deep and sharp valley between two peaks. In the study area if the object area is small compared with the background area, the histogram no longer exhibits bimodality. Therefore, Two-dimensional Otsu’s method can be consider as it performs better image segmentation in noisy images [ 63 ]. Additionally, how information can be utilized and shared through social media could be explored for further validation and dissemination of the findings for rapid response as described in Babu et al., [ 64 ].

It is important to note that the natural occurrence and impact of floods can be magnified by socio-economic development, including encroachment on the floodplains and inadequate drainage management [ 65 ]. In addition, traditional knowledge of dealing with floods has been forgotten, which have the potential to offer site-specific knowledge and critical guidance to planners and decision makers. Flooding causes economic and livelihood losses especially in developing countries where low-income earners undergo great stress. Losses due to floods reduces the asset base of households, communities and societies through the destruction of standing crops, dwellings, infrastructure, machinery and buildings, in addition to tragic loss of life. Despite the rich natural resources and water, people living in these areas are poorer as compared to the rest of the country, and this is primarily due to the annual floods and related devastation. The resulting financial burden is often back-breaking for the communities. The pressure to maintain the day to day expenses, education of children, rituals, health amongst these disasters, increasing poverty, and few available adaptive mechanisms has sometimes led to migration from such areas. Flood and migration have direct relation as higher the flood, higher is the migration rate. It is important to note that floods impact different sections of society differentially, and requires a thorough understanding of flood-related issues. Floods have adverse impacts such as the risk to life and property in the coming years, both because floods are likely to be more frequent, and because increase in population is likely to result in more people settling in areas vulnerable to flooding. An increase in floods is likely to influence prevalence of water-related diseases and contaminate water sources whereas, the insufficient water for hygiene purposes during dry periods is likely to increase the risk of water-washed diseases. Given the projected changes in precipitation, it is likely that there is going to be serious costs for communities and sectors here. In view of the above, there is an urgent need for actions to assist communities and dependent sectors to adapt. Therefore, the various heavily water-dependent sectors—agriculture, industry, energy, navigation and water supply and sanitation—need to cooperate to work towards achieving a resilient State.

Supporting information

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237324.s001

Acknowledgments

The authors express great gratitude to David Molden, Director General and Eklabya Sharma, Deputy Director General of ICIMOD for their overall guidance.

The authors would also like to thank reviewers for reviewing the article and for providing the valuable suggestions to improve the manuscript. The views and interpretations in this publication are those of the author’s and they are not necessarily attributable to their organizations.

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Spatial Mapping of the Flood-Affected Regions of Northern Kerala: A Case Study of 2018 Kerala Floods

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• Volume 50 , pages 677–688, ( 2022 )

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• K. Chithra 1 ,
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Flood mapping studies gained popularity in recent years with the availability of high-resolution SAR imagery. Satellite images in the visible spectrum cannot be used for disaster management applications due to inherent cloud cover during adverse weather conditions. The cloud penetrating capabilities and all-weather operation make radar images more suitable for flood mapping applications than optical images. The Kerala floods of 2018 were the worst disaster the state experienced in a century after the 1924 floods. It has resulted in widespread destruction and damages all around the state. Even though few flood inundation studies are based on the Kerala floods, they all concentrate on Central Kerala. Previous studies have not investigated detailed flood mapping of Northern Kerala using remote sensing techniques. This research paper explores the extent of flooding in Kozhikode, Malappuram and Wayanad districts of Northern Kerala by applying the thresholding method on radar images. The inundation extent of August 2018 is compared with the water-covered area of 2017 August to determine the extent of flooding. The current research also analyses the level of flood influence at the village level by using a spatial approach. The study reveals that the low-lying regions of the Malappuram district are the worse affected in the study area, with a few villages being severely flooded, with more than 10% of the geographical area inundated during the peak time. The flood inundation maps can be used to study the causative factors by applying modeling approaches.

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Acknowledgements

This research is undertaken as part of the DST–NRDMS project funded by the Department of Science and Technology, GOI. The authors thank the funding agency for providing the necessary guidance and financial support. We are grateful to Copernicus Open Access Hub and European Space Agency for providing Sentinel-1 data freely.

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Chithra, K., Binoy, B.V. & Bimal, P. Spatial Mapping of the Flood-Affected Regions of Northern Kerala: A Case Study of 2018 Kerala Floods. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 50 , 677–688 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12524-021-01485-5

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Kerala Flood 2018 Quiz

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What is Kerala?

Kerala is a state in which country, where in india is kerala located, true or false kerala has the highest population of all of india's states..

Kerala has the 13th largest population in India.

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Identify the mountain range in eastern kerala., true or false the indian state of kerala receives some of india’s highest rainfall during the monsoon season., what is the average rate of rainfall in kerala during the monsoon season, how much rain fell in kerala during the 2018 monsoon season, how much more rain fell during august 2018 compared to the august average, true or false between august 1 and 19, the state received 758.6 mm of precipitation, compared to the average of 287.6 mm, or 164% more., true or false the unprecedented rainfall was caused by a spell of high pressure over the region..

The unprecedented rainfall was caused by a spell of low pressure over the region.

True or false? The unprecedented rainfall was caused by a spell of low pressure over the region. As a result, there was a perfect confluence of the south-west monsoon wind system and the two low-pressure systems formed over the Bay of Bengal and Odisha. The low-pressure regions pull in the moist south-west monsoon winds, increasing their speed, as they then hit the Western Ghats, travel skywards, and form rain-bearing clouds.

True or false downpours on already saturated land led to more surface run-off causing landslides and widespread flooding., how many dams on kerala's 41 rivers flowing into the arabian sea were opened after being overwhelmed, true or false the opening of dams on kerala's rivers caused water treatment plants to be submerged, damaging their motors., what was the depth of flood water in the worst affected areas, how many people died as the result of flooding in the state of kerala during the 2018 floods, how did many of the victims of the flood die, how many people were made homeless by the flooding, true or false parts of kerala’s commercial capital, cochin, were underwater, snarling up roads and leaving railways across the state impassable. in addition, the state’s airport, which domestic and overseas tourists use, was closed, causing significant disruption., true or false schools in seven of kerala's fouteen districts were closed.

Schools in all 14 districts of Kerala were closed.

How many emergency relief camps were set up in the area?

True or false more than 83,000km of roads were damaged and the total recovery cost was estimated to be between £2.2bn and $2.7bn., which of the following are examples of responses to the flooding in kerala.

Please select 4 correct answers

True or false? In the wake of the disaster, the UAE, Qatar and the Maldives came forward with offers of financial aid amounting to nearly £82m. The United Arab Emirates promised $100m (£77m) of this aid.

True or false since 2004, india declined to accept international aid donations..

The main reason for this is to protect its image as a newly industrialised country; it does not need to rely on other countries for financial help.

Which technology company provided a donation platform to allow donors to make donations securely?

Google partners with the Center for Disaster Philanthropy (CDP), an intermediary organisation that specialises in distributing your donations to local nonprofits that work in the affected region to ensure funds reach those who need them the most.

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